Wednesday Numbers

The fall/winter slowdown is throwing off some funny numbers.  We had 175 new listings yesterday, and 179 sales, for a sell/list of 102.29%.  There were 93 price changes.  Inventory dropped under 10k, again, to reach 10,996, of which 2,732, or 24.85%.  In other words, almost 1 in 4 listings isn’t selling after sufficient exposure to the market.   At first blush that ratio is still indicative of a seller’s market, but I still think the number indicates why sellers should price their properties as competitively as possible. I also think that further upward growth in the number is a strong indication that buyers are well informed about relative value.

On a related note, Aaron is holding an agent’s open today between 12:00 and 2:00 for the house in Coquitlam.  Offers, if any, will be presented on Friday.  Let’s survey opinion to see how well the blogosphere knows the market.  What is going to happen with this listing?

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41 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers, For sale

41 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. Al

    “What is going to happen with this listing?”

    Despite this house needs repairs, I think it will be sold very close to asking price.

  2. Grin and Bear It

    Will not go for asking (should go for less than).

  3. Strataman

    465,000! Give or take a thousand! 🙂

  4. Al

    I guess, it might be sold for around $500K.

  5. Al

    Rob, providing service to your client, why don’t you care to take appropriate quality pictures?
    And you didn’t instruct your client to do cleaning in the house….
    Top agents do professional presentation of the property, why don’t you?

    Because of such a poor presentation, I am afraid that this house will be sold underpriced (around $500K).

    I will not be surprised if this property will be flipped in Spring for around $580K (nice and clean and professionally presented).

  6. robchipman

    Al:

    Interesting question, and you can be sure that it is something that gets discussed. I’m going to throw that open to blog discussion (as if you guys need my permission! 🙂 )

  7. deb

    That is one messy place.

  8. Grin and Bear It

    Another day of very bull-ish numbers. Many speculate it’s people jumping ship from a market that may slide (reasonable prices for the current market). Seems like a possible reason to me. Many other markets have hit the top so we MAY be next.

    As far as selling of that Coquitlam property, I don’t think it would go over $470 000. It’s current state would turn away many buyers.

  9. Al

    Rob, I am sorry, but I feel concerned.
    Seems, your client is investor (maybe out of town investor?) who rents out this property.
    This house has great potential but is poorly presented, is undepriced, has terrible pictures and as a result can be sold to the flipper.

    It is painful to watch when people are loosing their hard earned money.

  10. BBY

    It’s possible that unflattering pictures are shown to draw in a flipper. Many of the pictures highlight “areas for improvement”, thus giving prospective buyers a sense that this is an undervalued property with “potential”. With each photo the targeted buyer will be assessing the time, effort and money to improve and add value to the property. Strip, sand and paint the banister, clean the deck off, landscape the yard, fix chimney, clean up roof, etc.
    Hmmm… Could unflattering presentation be a RE tactic to persuade increasingly overstretched and wary buyers that a property will still gain value, even though a housing bust may seem inevitable and almost upon us? RE is sooo much about playing the human psyche; it is marketing and sales afterall. And I’m just sooo cynical 🙂

  11. jesse

    Good luck Aaron! Hope the showing goes well for you.

  12. BBY

    UK show Spitting Image spoofs Our House (from Madness) in the 80’s. Enjoy.

  13. Jeff

    awesome… that house should see multiples… at first someone might think it’s a joke, but it actually exist on MLS. good luck Rob.

  14. Omigod , Rob! I just saw the photos of :
    Central Coquitlam House for sale: 2548 sqft (Listed 2007-11-20)

    Whatta nightmare. Are you sure this isn’t the Sanford & Son original house?

    Looks like bulldozer bait to me, but then again, I keep getting surprised in this crazy RE world of BC.

    I’m sure you know that many buyers can relate to that junkpile. They can actually describe that as their ‘dreamhome.’

    Every time I think I’ve seen it all, another vista opens to me. The only positive thing in thos pix is the poor tree that gracefully chooses to live in the yard. Nuff said. We’ll see how much someone pays for it.

  15. Strataman

    “Whatta nightmare. ” prettywoman, yeh Rob I looked at those too, the photos and thought about how my wife and I worked for days to make sure there was no DUST!. If this place sells for asking price or above to me that just proves this market is insane!

  16. Disbelief

    The Coquitlam property could use a little work, roof for starters and major reno. If you were to put let say 30k-40k into it…… what would it sell for in immaculate condition. We know what someone is trying to flog it for in disrepair. Would someone pay $600k in remodelled condition???

  17. Disbelief

    I looked at a comp and mls#V669278. Which has been completely reno’d with a bigger lot and a nice double garage priced at $629k… Even if you put in $50k into this place you wouldn’t get $629k. Therefore you would put in a lot of hard earned money and time for not a lot of profit after all said and done. Lots of risk and not enough gain IMO. You may as well hit the craps table probably have better odds of striking it rich.

  18. Skeptic

    Nice quiet cul-de-sac near parks, I can see $545k

  19. -A-

    The Place has a lot of potential, a good realtor should get a bidding war up and running fairly quickly.

  20. Disbelief

    I really think these two laws are very important to learn before making any rash decisions…..

    # Rapid price gains are unsustainable, and will always overcorrect before settling back to normal rates of appreciation.

    # Those believing that price gains would go on forever are the ones who were likeliest to get hurt — speculators and homebuyers who bought beyond their true means.

  21. Wise Guy

    What’s with the pump?

    It’s a dump.

  22. vanreal

    If that ugly house sells for that price, it sure is a seller’s market. In Coquitlam in that condition. yuccch!!!!

  23. Wet Coaster

    Pet Peeve:

    “Offers will be presented on ……”
    This is a more recent development in the real estate “profession”: where realtors create an auction atmosphere by not presenting ALL offers as SOON as they receive them. No other profession gets away with this kind of BS.
    This kind of tactic is why this market is motivated by so much greed. Unfortunately it’s typical.

  24. I hear you, Wet Coaster
    November 22, 2007 at 10:49 pm

    Pet Peeve:

    “Offers will be presented on ……”

    AGREED. These days, that type of marketing could cause egg-on-realtor-face syndrome. Imagine if nobody comes to see it, and there are NO offers. Quite a deserved scenario , n’est ce pas?

  25. Jeff

    to Rob’s defense:
    He did say “Offers, if any, will be presented on Friday”
    “if any”… he noted that there may not be any.
    The use of this statement has become general practice since almost every call we get from fellow Realtors ends with “when are offers being presented?”
    This sets a level playing field for offers from buyers and should help avoid a Realtor being accused of double ending a deal before other Realtors get the chance to present an offer.

  26. Skeptic

    What happens if you put forward an offer before the ‘offers will be presented on -insert date and time-” and you make your offer so it expires before this ?

    The realtors are required to present it to the seller right ?

    Anyone got any good strategies they would like to mention ? i.e. write an offer before asking when offers will be presented ?

    Its definitely a strategy that generally favours the seller, how can the playing field be levelled ? I guess if you’re not desperate to buy you can tell the selling realtor to phone you once he’s presented and dealt with all other offers, i.e. refuse to take part in the ‘auction’.

    Interested to hear views of others on this.

  27. Popeye

    Al says if it goes for 500K it will sell for 580K in the Spring. If it does sell for 580 this would be a break-even situation: 17% in costs to the vendor. Or would someone dispute this.

  28. blueskies

    2 things i’ve noticed in the recent past:

    1. severe price compression
    2. buyer capitulation (all in at any cost)

    methinks the end of the bubble is nigh.

    rob: i would like to see the price history of this house.

  29. capcialist

    Check MLS, there are quite a few properties that have been listed for months whose tags says ‘offers will be presented on…’ with a date of August. The tactic does fail. If we move into a real buyers market, that tactic will look like laziness as it will be useless. In a real buyers market, which we are not yet in, a given property is lucky to have even ONE prospective buyer.

    If you don’t like the tactic, choose another property or wait until other buyers fail. If another buyer appears, back off until they go away or choose another property. There’s no particular shortage at the moment. The buying frenzy/extreme buyers market is over, at least for the winter. Just because they are selling, doesn’t mean you have to buy…

    The tactic is perfectly valid in a Sellers market and allows an agent to service more properties, increasing their income.

  30. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/2qw9n9

    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Friday that U.S. house prices have not bottomed out after a crisis in the subprime mortgage market.

    “The markets are becoming aware that the decline in U.S. housing prices is not stopping. It is at an unprecedented pace compared to the last 50 years

    tryptophan challenged maybe?

  31. ängstlich

    “The buying frenzy/extreme buyers market is over, at least for the winter. Just because they are selling, doesn’t mean you have to buy…”

    I wonder if that might only be the case by neighborhood. Where we’re looking (east van) virtually every property we look at gets multiple offers and goes significantly over asking.

  32. Priced Out

    I wonder how the open went.

    I live within a couple km of this house, and I think its in a good location. Near recreation facilities and schools,. Brady Bunch-era suburbia, nice family feel, cul-de-sacs. Some nearby neighbourhoods have been going downhill with grow-ops and too many poorly maintained rentals. Again, the area immediately around this house is holding up better.

    It may take a while to sell. I’ve seen fix-and-flips and tear-downs in the half million range sit for a long time in this part of Coquitlam. The price stats show Coquitlam has been weaker than surrounding suburbs like Port Moody, New West etc.

    If this was such a hot investment, I’m sure Rob has people who would have scooped it up by now.

  33. robchipman

    P.O.’d

    Remember this: I recommend long term holds bought with good metrics. The definition of “good” can vary within a relatively narrow band, based on the individual’s place in the world. I’ve already said that this property is not good on the basis of metrics at present. That could change or be changed, depending on the potential buyer.

    On a comparitive basis it has a great price. Extending that to saying its a hot investment requires some missing information. However, not all good buys are hot investments.

  34. jesse

    “If this was such a hot investment, I’m sure Rob has people who would have scooped it up by now.”

    It would be silly for Aaron to limit the potential market to a group of insiders. It’s his duty to get the highest price possible and this involves advertising (MLS, newspapers, blogs 😉 ) and open showings.

    The property looks like it “needs work.” Maybe some family just got an income boost and this is the perfect buy for them. Can’t hurt to find out. I’d guess around $500-520K final sale after deficiencies are fully accounted for. I don’t know the area too well, however trying to sell this to owner-occupiers will not fetch much of a premium given the messiness (often a sign of neglect).

  35. jesse

    I was just reminded of a story about an East Indian immigrant who moved to Halifax and opened up an all-you-can-eat Indian buffet. He did not feel the need to make tons of money so priced his buffet very cheap, just covering his meagre living and operating costs. The problem was he had no customers — with prices too low the inference was his food was terrible. He grudgingly raised his prices and business picked up.

    Pricing properties below market rate can sometimes backfire as it can make people that much more suspicious.

  36. Anonymous

    ängstlich
    November 23, 2007 at 11:19 am
    “The buying frenzy/extreme buyers market is over, at least for the winter. Just because they are selling, doesn’t mean you have to buy…”

    I wonder if that might only be the case by neighborhood. Where we’re looking (east van) virtually every property we look at gets multiple offers and goes significantly over asking.

    ——
    ängstlich,

    Which part of East Van are you looking at?

    I see a number of properties in East Van that are justing sitting there. In a two block span, there are 5 houses listed for sale. Not sure what there price are or the condition inside (perhaps overpriced and/or need major TLC?)

  37. Al: I wouldn’t worry too much about our client and his investment. He has done very well over the years.

    I’m not sure what your problem with the photos is. In fact your problems are baseless & spiteful. The photos are a truthful description of the house today. They are designed to attract a certain segment of the market. If you cared to notice I took way more than the average Realtor does, if they include any photos at all.

    Again, I’m not too sure why you think it would be a better idea to wait for the house to be vacant. Potentially losing 2 or 3 months rent. Not to mention what sort of ROI do you expect from garbage removal & paint? Anybody that comes in there will still see that the roof & deck need to be replaced, and the entire house needs to be gutted and remodeled. What you are proposing is what we call “putting lipstick on the pig.” It may fool the uneducated, but every seasoned investor & inspector that comes through will see right through that.

    Instead of wasting time & money on useless upgrades & clean up. It is way more adventitious to the Seller to create multiple offers by listing the house slightly under value. Now we have a case of Buyers competing with each other instead of Buyers competing with our client, by bringing lowball offers in dribs & drabs one at a time.

    The open was a tremendous success. I fielded over 40-50 calls within a day of the listing hitting the market. We had over 20 Realtors and their clients come through the open. We have 3 confirmed offers today at 3pm, and a possibility of 2 more. Now we’ll have to wait and see what the offers look like. It Should be interesting.

  38. Al

    “They are designed to attract a certain segment of the market”

    Aaron, wich segment of the market it is?

    I probably is from different segment, that’s why these pictures didn’t impress me too much – just gave bad vibes.

    Some of images look like Jerry Springer show – a lot of boxes, toilet paper, durty bathrooms, mess and clutter everywhere.

    Many photos, but I didn’t find any pictures with living room/bedrooms flooring, for example.

    Not very informative.

    BTW, congratulations on multiple offers.

  39. blueskies

    multiple offers huh? who knew!?

    i guessed it would remain on the market for 90 days… or longer.

    and the photos did it absolutely no justice
    but i guess you had to see it… oh and bring your chequebook … ya’ll gonna need it

    and fergit subject or contingency offers, that’s so yesterday.

  40. ObserverX

    I think this one is bring your chequebook and your bulldozer.

  41. ängstlich

    ängstlich,

    Which part of East Van are you looking at?

    I see a number of properties in East Van that are justing sitting there. In a two block span, there are 5 houses listed for sale. Not sure what there price are or the condition inside (perhaps overpriced and/or need major TLC?)

    Commercial drive area. nothing i’ve looked at is still here….alas

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