Thursday Numbers

The erratic trend continues.  There were 181 new listings yesterday and 129 sales, for a sell/list of 71.27%.  What will today bring? 100%+ or sub 50%? What about Monday?  (I’ll guess a realtively strong listing count for Monday, but still under 200).

Inventory stayed under the 11k mark, dropping slightly to 10,955, of which 2,689, or 24.5% were over 90s.

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42 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

42 responses to “Thursday Numbers

  1. Jeff

    There’s not much of a trend lately with the numbers.
    I think buyers are going to reach capitulation this fall, that is the last of the buyers will give up and just buy.
    Similar to the US in 2006, I think there is increasing risk that the buyers will not show up come spring.
    All 3 of my current sellers are telling me that if their properties don’t sell now that they look forward to the spring market.
    I am hearing from other Realtors that their sellers are also looking forward to the spring market.
    It should be interesting come spring.

  2. deb

    when do you think the spring market starts, I mean month and day.

  3. jesse

    In the past 2 years, inventory has increased steadily starting in January all the way through June. I’m not sure when the spring market officially “starts” but I’d say around mid February, about when the crocuses start appearing.

  4. robchipman

    Jeff:

    That’s what I mean by erratic trend. Aside from dropping inventory (and even that has planed out) we really don’t have much of a trend over the last couple weeks.

  5. Strataman

    Strange it seems like the listing sell ratio is imitating the stock market these last few weeks, way up, way down, all over the place, as Jeff said definitely no trend! I wonder if it’s the same reason, stock investors don’t seem to know if they should buy/sell or hold. From a few personal realestate investors I have seen the same thing..confusion!

  6. blueskies

    volatility, this was predicted for the credit market fallout. obviously spills over into RE sales too. December should prove interesting,
    specially for the 5 big CDN banks…. what is their exposure?

  7. Jeff

    I’ve been watching a lot of BNN and as of late many analyst are saying to stay in cash. 100% cash.
    Here’s an article from G&M…
    The global credit squeeze is in its “early days,” says investor Prem Watsa, who is so bearish that his insurance company has stashed the bulk of its $18-billion investment portfolio into ultrasafe government bonds.
    http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071123.wrfairfaxmarket23/GIStory/

  8. Jeff

    deb:
    I’d agree with jesse, generally in Vancouver it is earlier than the rest of the country… probably mid-February.
    New listings pick up right after new years.

  9. Wise Guy

    Thanks, Jeff.

    If you really ARE a realtor, it is nice to see one who is on the level.

  10. Notice that the over 90s is slowly getting higher, couple months ago it was around 20-21%, now it is over 24%. That could point to a not so great spring 2008 on the way.

    Can’t see anything like spring US 2006 coming, and if it does, everyone knows what happened within a year after – sellers finally ran out and US housing values started to tank across most of the states.

  11. Jeff

    Greg:
    The sellers in the US aren’t running out anytime soon.
    Vancouver is extremely long in the tooth, I am calling the market upside done.

  12. Strataman

    Jeff “I am calling the market upside done.” I would say you are right, a lot of people are counting the days til spring so they can list and make their 15 % from last year. I think they will be in for a suprise, as buyers are priced out. US recession will start in spring (although many say it has already started). Look for higher unemployment in Van next spring.

  13. blueskies

    Look for higher unemployment in Van next spring.

    plus our ongoing credit problems are no where near being solved.

  14. Satv

    Look for higher unemployment in Van next spring.

    Bluesky,Strataman,

    All jobs are booked till 2016 in non residential construction projects and we got Millennium Line expansion coming up along Broadway from CLARK-UBC.

  15. Satv

    Sounds like bearish dream is over.

  16. blueskies

    satv:

    you turkey!

    again you are missing the point!

    i’ll explain it to you in 4 (four) words…

    you listening?

    big party
    big hangover

    ya’ll got that?

  17. News Flash

    “Vancouver is extremely long in the tooth, I am calling the market upside done.”

    “I would say you are right, a lot of people are counting the days til spring so they can list and make their 15 % from last year. I think they will be in for a suprise, as buyers are priced out.”

    Do you guys ever get tired of repeating the same thing month after month, year after year?

    The market is still sizzling hot. We are seeing declining inventory and still have bidding wars going on. Look at the dumpy Coquitlam property Aaron listed. Multiple offers n the first day for a 1/2 million bucks. In a balanced or normal market a place like this sits for 6 months plus and sells for considerably under list. In a poor market it doesn’t sell at all unless it is cleaned up.

    “plus our ongoing credit problems are no where near being solved.”

    Which ones are those? You seem to confuse the US and Canada. There is no subprime here, no teaser rates, few foreclosures and no evidence we will see any foreclosures in the future. Completely different situation. Last August you called there would be no more mortgages in Canada. I guess all those buyers over the past 4 months paid cash.

    We’ll see if the broken clock is ever right. Right now it isn’t looking good.

  18. News Flash

    “Sounds like bearish dream is over.”

    The dream is still going. But a dream it is.

  19. Jeff

    If/when oil moves through $100 (possibly this week) where do people think investors should be positioned?
    Is it possible that it will have the psychological impact that sends the global economy into recession and therefore putting money under the mattress will be the only way to preserve capital?
    Or can anyone suggest an alternative?

  20. Jeff

    Bears are becoming harder to ignore:
    ok… I am going to apologize before I post this… and Rob please delete it if it is too scary… I caution most of you to avoid reading any further. I’m also going to take a week off from all this craziness as it’s getting me really worried… I’m going to avoid all economic reading, stop watching the stock markets, and stop reading this blog. See you all in December.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-petruno24nov24,1,2196088.column?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=2&cset=true

    “Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing and the value of American per-capita economic output falling below that of Greece.”

    “Tice, who manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund in Dallas, likewise predicts that U.S. markets will crumble and says the economy could face something akin to the Great Depression.”

    “a U.S. market and economic crash could drag the entire planet into recession or depression”

  21. BOBBY BEAR

    when things are so good that they cannot get any better….WATCH OUT

  22. Disbelief

    Newsflash…..
    The U.S has no impact on us whatsoever ( not only our largest trading partner but who’s every word and movement can be felt here…. The true fact is we are living in the shadow of our Big brother the great USA. Whether you care to admit it or not.)

    Time for a reality check newsflash…. History repeats itself and when the US catches a cold we suffer right along with…..

  23. robchipman

    Too scary? I obviously missed something. Forecasts of a great depression have been made, regularly, as long as I can remember. Could it happen? Sure. But one more story about it doesn’t make it more likely, or more scary. Google “coming depression” or “great depression” and you’ll find lots of stuff that say the equivelant of this article.

    Anyway, why worry? It never helps. By all means prepare for the future (we’re going to spend the rest of our lives there, right?) but don’t worry about it. Make a plan and stick with it.

  24. News Flash

    Jeff: “I caution most of you to avoid reading any further. I’m also going to take a week off from all this craziness as it’s getting me really worried”

    If you somehow have a crystal ball on the markets then why would you have to work for a living? Just short the market with all that money you save renting every month and become rich.

    “Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing and the value of American per-capita economic output falling below that of Greece.”

    He has been predicting this for 10 years now. He is a gold bug, doom and gloom news letter writer. Nothing new here.

    “Tice, who manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund in Dallas, likewise predicts that U.S. markets will crumble and says the economy could face something akin to the Great Depression.”

    Check out the returns of this fund the Prudent Bear. Negative over the past 10 years! It must be the worst performing mutual fund in the US over that time. The guy has been singing the some tune since the mid 90’s.

  25. News Flash

    Jeff: “I caution most of you to avoid reading any further. I’m also going to take a week off from all this craziness as it’s getting me really worried”

    If you somehow have a crystal ball on the markets then why would you have to work for a living? Just short the market with all that money you save renting every month and become rich.

    “Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing and the value of American per-capita economic output falling below that of Greece.”

    He has been predicting this for 10 years now. He is a gold bug, doom and gloom news letter writer. Nothing new here.

    “Tice, who manages the Prudent Bear mutual fund in Dallas, likewise predicts that U.S. markets will crumble and says the economy could face something akin to the Great Depression.”

    Check out the returns of this fund the Prudent Bear. Negative over the past 10 years! It must be the worst performing mutual fund in the US over that time. The guy has been singing the some tune since the mid 90’s.

  26. News Flash

    “Time for a reality check newsflash…. History repeats itself and when the US catches a cold we suffer right along with…..”

    Stock markets yes…real estate no.

    As we are witnessing right now.

  27. blueskies

    As we are witnessing right now.?

    here is what we are witnessing now:

    a global credit bubble which spawned a nearly global housing asset bubble and various MEW driven asset bubbles. Overlay this with our current climate changes woes and top it off with the ramifications of peak oil.

    it is different this time…….
    your meager housing unit ownership will wither in the face of this perfect sh!t storm we are facing. you and satv are not seeing the big picture.

  28. Satv

    “History repeats itself”
    Can you wear diaper on you 35th birthday?
    Can you go back to kindergarten after post graduation?
    Can you buy 40 year mortgage at the age of 50?
    First time buyers with regular earning get one chance that’s it.do not put your marriage,kids,and dream on hold.

    Joint from the chain to run cycle has been broken.once you lost the gem of time, history can not return that back to you.
    There is some thing history can repeat for every thing else there is wall clock(time).

  29. jesse

    “You seem to confuse the US and Canada. There is no subprime here, no teaser rates, few foreclosures and no evidence we will see any foreclosures in the future.”

    The hot market in Vancouver is for other reasons not exactly like the US. Things are still hot but be prepared with some excuses in case the market crashes, just in case. Plan for the future, as some sage once said.

  30. Anonymous

    satv: “do not put your marriage,kids,and dream on hold.”

    hilarious!

    satv, do you work for a bank or something? sure sound like you do.

  31. Priced Out

    Anyone who is thinking of starting a family should get the heck out of Vancouver. At least go to Langley or Mission and try to get a job out in the FV.

  32. Disbelief

    The stock market is where history repeats itself ok. In all stock markets even Canadian correct…. Then why would are RE market be different than any other. There will be a correction of some type that is a fact. To what degree is the question. The key to any market is timing. Time it right and you will be wealthy and time it wrong and you can lose your shirt…. Just talk to some of our American friends.

  33. DeeDub

    Schiff, who heads brokerage Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Conn., sees the dollar and stock market collapsing…

    Schiff has been making these kinds of predictions for years. The question, if you believe he is correct, is – why do YOU believe “this time is different”?

  34. News Flash

    “The key to any market is timing. Time it right and you will be wealthy and time it wrong and you can lose your shirt…. Just talk to some of our American friends.”

    Or the key is not to try to time it at all…as you many others should have learned over the past few years.

  35. News Flash

    “your meager housing unit ownership will wither in the face of this perfect sh!t storm we are facing.”

    I would have expected a US link for you Blueskies. Instead more of the same you have been posting for how many years now?

  36. Anonymous

    newflash “as you many others should have learned over the past few years.”

    quite a long time horizon you have there newsflash.

    you’ve probably heard it before, but sounds like you could use some reminding: “never confuse a bull market with brains”.

  37. Disbelief

    #

    Or the key is not to try to time it at all…as you many others should have learned over the past few years.

    That may apply to some but I have been in the market a long time. Have my home which I live in and have sold 2 investment properties one in 2004 and the other in 2005. The money is invested mostly in GICs just waiting for the next cycle. And if not thats ok too I will just buy my retirement property sooner than expected and get out of this wet soggy climate. When you have cash you have lots of options….

  38. Disbelief

    And when all you have is a condo that you overpaid for all you have is hope that one day you will come out from under it….. And then another Bull is born… You never know you might be one of the lucky ones…. Time will tell… Good luck

  39. Tony Danza

    Come on guys don’t be so hard on the RE pumpers. Imagine if the industry you worked/pumped in was going to hell just 20 minutes south of you. I know I’d be pissed if people were rubbing the inevitable in my face every day.

  40. blueskies

    if people were rubbing the inevitable in my face every day.

    the “inevitable” was known 2-3 years ago..

    ample time to CYA

  41. Tony Danza

    “the “inevitable” was known 2-3 years ago…”

    I think you’re extending too much intellectual credit to the RE pumpers with your statement.

  42. robchipman

    I’m not sure what a pumper is, or what the inevitable is (20% correction? 30%? 40%? 50%?) but here are a few facts to confuse things.

    October 2005 benchmark for detached was $546,061; October 2007 $730,022. That’s a difference of $183,961, or 34%.

    If you were leveraged at 25% down, of course, your return is 4 times that, percentage wise.

    And, of course, with 25% down and a 34% increase in value it’s possible that you could remove all of your down payment from the purchase after a year, and have the cash and the income producing property.

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