Bad Luck On Numbers This Morning

I downloaded data late last night and emailed it to my office; unfortunately it didn’t transfer to my office Excel in the regular manner. Therefore, we have abbreviated numbers today.

There were 347 new listings Thursday and 263 sales, for a sell/list of 75.79%. 

There were 126 price changes. 

Inventory in my target area rose to 12,077, while over 90s dropped to 1,924, or 15.93%.

The 14 day rolling sell/list was 66.21%.

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83 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

83 responses to “Bad Luck On Numbers This Morning

  1. tqn

    sell/list down from 111.19% to 75.79%, must be a down trend in the glass half empty !!!

  2. jim

    May will see inventory growth slow and it will pick up towards fall per normal.

  3. jojuchst

    We’ve already eclipsed last month’s sales figure.

    Sales/Lists has also gone up from 59.6% to 67.7%

    2007 may is just as hot as 2006 may.

  4. first_time_buyer

    “We’ve already eclipsed last month’s sales figure.

    Sales/Lists has also gone up from 59.6% to 67.7%”

    No and no. Sales last year: 4827
    So far this year: 3643

    Sell List last year: 77.36%
    So far this year:67.7%

  5. jim

    first_time_buyer: “no and no.” Excellent . Agree. Numbers talk, bullshit walks.

  6. Guessing

    Some people try and use numbers to hedge their bets but to a large degree it’s all just one giant guessing game.

    One thing I like to guess at is when the market settles down where will it level off at? Winter 2006 prices? Summer 2006?

    My guess is that the market is still going up at such a crazy rate that even if you buy today by the time there’s a correction things won’t drop bellow todays prices.

    Then again, I guessed the Giants would win the WHL 🙂

  7. mk-kids

    My guess is that the market is still going up at such a crazy rate that even if you buy today by the time there’s a correction things won’t drop bellow todays prices.

    guessing: not a chance. we’re at 70% affordability and mortgage ads today are selling no down payment options. this market will drop 30-50% and a lot of people are going to find themselves upside down. already the sell list is down 10% this year, prices may be sticky but they aren’t going up anymore.

  8. coco

    Does anyone know what year and month 12,000 + inventory existed? I checked Rob’s old blog and could not find inventory ever at these levels.

  9. Domus

    Frankly, the news from the US is such that it begs disbelief. It is a pure and simple catastrophe down there.

    Read the latest post at Calculated Risk:
    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

    and in particular look at the graphics with national stocks and months of inventory:
    http://tinyurl.com/2veabu

  10. jim

    mk-kids is probably right. There is no reason for any downward move to stop at 2006 prices since they were ahead of PE ratios, and affordability indexes by a factor of 1.5 in 2006. If anything we could overshoot on the downside by as much as we over shot fundamentals on the upside. However don’t bet against: homeowners love of their homes and transaction costs quenching people’s thirst to sell into a dead market.

  11. Domus

    The latest US numbers on existing home sales indicate a large drop in volume and almost no change in prices.

    Yesterday’s numbers on new home sales 9sold by developers) indicate volumes not falling as much because of large drops in prices (11% year-on-year).

    So, the story goes: developers are willing to reduce prices substantially to keep shifting stocks.
    Private homeowners either cannot or will not do it. So they just sit and wait.

    This is going to end very badly. Refer to my previous post for some interesting numbers from Calculated Risk.

    Buyers: beware!

  12. jim

    Domus: By now no one will argue the US is in a housing recession in most regions. The big question that remains is will Canada f0llow? When? To what extent? Personally I look at the increasingly bad news out the US and wonder at the huge disconnect between buyer sentiment down there, and in Vancouver. I currently chalk it up to the typical 1 to 2 year lag we experience on most things economic. If we don’t see YOY price drops this fall or by next spring at the latest-then its truly different this time. I doubt that its the Olympics. More likely Canadians having being constrained for decades by tighter Canadian banking standards are getting the their first taste of true global liquidity and free international cash movement. But that’s probably already been priced in.

  13. millionpitfall

    coco,

    You have a point about inventory levels. Bull markets should reduce the inventory levels, not just keep it stable at the 12,000 plus range.

  14. whitebear

    Why don’t you spend some time in zillow.com and find out what the real market is like in the Pacific NorthWest (Check out Seattle and Bellevue area)? All recent transactions are in zillow. The Pacific North West has refused to go down an iota in this so-called housing crash in the US.

  15. jim

    whitebear: “so-called”? Are you for real?

  16. Domus

    True, Seattle is coming with a lag. Two things: appreciation over there has been milder than many other US places and much milder than Vancouver.
    Two, the fact that there is no crash yet does not mean there won’t be.

    Ijust have this impression that people lose the big picture and start mentioning all kind of circumstantial evidence to support the view that Van’s prices are here to stay. They are not.

  17. robchipman

    First time:

    Jojuchst said”last “month”, not last “year”.

    Jim:

    If prices plummet volumes and all other things remain equal (%i, employment, economy, etc.) people won’t sell.

    That isn’t psychology. Its just math. Buy at $200,000. Mortgage for $180,000. Prices drop to $150,000. If you sell you need the proceeds plus commission plus $30,000 to walk away. If you could afford to live there with the value going up you’ll probably stay when the value drops.

    If you want to see foreclosures and widespread crystallized loss you need to wish for a drastically different economy. (Time to observe: be careful what you wish for….)

    Domus:

    There’s seldom a shortage of irony around here, but “I just have this impression that people lose the big picture and start mentioning all kind of circumstantial evidence to support…[their viewpoint “really goes both ways! 🙂

    Coco:

    October/November ’06.

  18. jim

    rob: I do not :”want to see foreclosures and widespread crystallized loss”. Remember I am an owner/investor as well. What I am expecting is prices to soften in the next 12 months so I can “average down”. K?

  19. robchipman

    Jim:

    Mis-application of “you” on my part. I didn’t mean you in particular, more the widespread “you” that refers to anyone salivating over a meltdown without really thinking it through. I was getting ahead of myself.

    My point of difference with you is the idea that a drop in value will cause loss of people to sell. You might not be trying to say that, but I’m hearing that a little. I’m confident that a price drop will come with lower volumes.

    But, clearly, the you in the last line shouldn’t be pointed at you. My bad.

  20. mk-kids

    “If prices plummet volumes and all other things remain equal (%i, employment, economy, etc.) people won’t sell.”

    I don’t know Rob, there is widespread speculation that there is widespread speculation…

    We are already seeing volume increase, if prices plummet, amateur specuvestors likely won’t be able to hold on – maybe we’ll see a glut to the rental market (specuvestors becoming landlords because they can’t afford the loss) which should mean rental prices stay the same or get lower. At any rate, I’d guess most will be subsidizing their renters and have to deal with the expense of a property management co or the headaches of do-it-yourself property managemnt. How long do you think they’ll hold out before selling… 1 year? 2? 5? Will that be long enough for a recovery in price?

    Time will tell… I just can’t imagine with whats going on in the local, regional & global economies that all things will remain equal – change is a constant.

  21. Annon

    After all, a 50% drop in price is possible …. just not sure if it is possible in Vancouver.

  22. Dyugle

    Rob
    “If prices plummet volumes and all other things remain equal (%i, employment, economy, etc.) people won’t sell.”
    Since housing supports the forestry and construction sectors a plummeting house price would have an effect on employment and the economy. However, since you conveniently asked us to ignore the obvious linkage I can only come up with the following.
    The small drop in prices last fall in Vancouver caused an up tick in foreclosures and couple of blog entries by you dedicated to the subject. If prices plummet there would be a spike in foreclosures. This may cause the “some profit is better than no profit” mentality to take over especially in the people close to retirement who are looking at their house as their nest egg. Thus, people may sell.
    Thanks for the numbers.

  23. Aleks

    A couple things could force people to sell, besides the economy tanking and causing massive job losses. First, specuvestors who were counting on the price going up and have units sitting empty or rented at a loss. You can only bleed money for so long. Second, if interest rates go up, which it now seems they are going to do, people who are right on the edge might not be able to afford their payments when it comes time to renew.

  24. robchipman

    Dyugle:

    I didn’t ask that you ignore the obvious linkage. I said that price drops without something big changing will equal lower volumes.

    Low prices and high volumes need somethign else as a cause. Even an amateur speculator who makes an error needs to either reach in his pocket to pay off the mortagage or else he needs to be foreclosed on.

    You are right that people who look at the house as a nest egg for retirement may sell if the uptick appears over. This ignores that common claim that Canadians who depend on their homes for retirement tend to die in their houses, but it does correspond to behaviour I see with long term holders. Of course, if someone nearing retirement age sells so as not to miss the current boom, and then either trades down or moves to the Island, for example, they aren’t taking a loss. Prices may fall as they compete within their cohort, but their actions won’t inspire other owners to take the loss (which, again, requires them to come up with a sizeable lump sum of additional cash).

  25. Guessing

    mk-kids: “guessing: not a chance. we’re at 70% affordability and mortgage ads today are selling no down payment options. this market will drop 30-50% and a lot of people are going to find themselves upside down. already the sell list is down 10% this year, prices may be sticky but they aren’t going up anymore.”

    I like that “not a chance” what odd’s would you give then? There is most definitely “a chance” no body knows what will happen until it does, that’s why it’s a guessing game.

    The way some people speak with such definity over something that is really just their best guess is what I was trying to get at. Something along the lines of “In my opinion…. ” or “Based on X and Y, I feel it’s most likely…” would probably be good ways to preface any predictions for the market…

  26. awum

    Rob’s area May 2006 daily sales average = 219.1
    Rob’s area May 2007 daily sales average (so far) = 214.3

    If May 2006 = hot for sales, then May 2007 = hot for sales.

    Yes, inventory is up a lot, but there is no slump in sales this month. Even at the least affordable market in Canadian history.

    Give it up. Your kids will soon be living in cardboard boxes while half your generation sells each other empty condos at $2 million a piece and whines at how they can’t afford these damn gas prices.

  27. bakakuse

    I’m eagerly anticipating the spineless BOC’s rate decision on Tuesday. The market seems to think rate hikes are on the way because inflation is destroying everyone’s money in Canada, but will Dodge hike? If they do another three times we could see parity by the end of this year me thinks(bad for our economy, very bad), or they could just sit on the sidelines(good for Van real estate).

    Either way, China’s casino-like stock market is really starting to look like the Nikkei in 89, and needs a heavy correction. That would kill the “Chinese people are drinking oil for breakfast” BS. Greater risk is required for less reward in almost all asset classes at present it seems.

    I hate renting but it seems to be my best option right now.

  28. awum

    Rob, your point about lower prices bringing lower volumes isn’t terribly convincing, and I doubt that it really matches the history in other markets. Your logic may work well with recent purchasers, but you have to ask yourself — on average, how much higher are current prices than the when the current homeowner bought their house? Right now, after a 5 year crazy bull run, a whole lot of people could sell at substantially less than the current price and still make a heckuva chunk of cash. And these are the folks most likely to wade into a declining market. It is part of the reason why such things can become a stampede — whether it be tech stocks, or 1982 Vancouver real estate. It ain’t just the comfortable myth of “external factors” that drives these things. I’m sure you can find “external factors” galore if you look for them, but correlation does not equal causation and funny thing is, these “external factors” are a lot clearer in hindsight!

  29. jim

    awum: You just supported the “bear” MOI argument. As long as you have your calculator out, what’s the daily listings analysis YOY?
    mk-kids: “if prices plummet, amateur specuvestors likely won’t be able to hold on”. Not true. Plummeting prices have nothing to do with holding costs. It only does when cash out refi’s are being used to pay carrying costs. That’s mostly a US phenomenon.
    Guessing: You make strategic guesses and you place your bets, or you sit back and watch and critique. Doing nothing, if it’s strategic, is sound.

  30. jim

    bakakuse: parity is a pipe dream. If we approach it, our exports will tank and our economy will follow. The US owns us.
    rob: you are a balanced guy. Do you ever get mad?

  31. e

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070525/economy.html?.v=35

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of existing homes fell more than expected in April while prices slid for a record ninth consecutive month, indicating further troubles ahead for the housing market.

    The National Association of Realtors reported Friday that sales of existing homes dropped by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million units, the slowest sales pace in nearly four years.

    ADVERTISEMENT
    The median price of a home fell to $220,900, an 0.8 percent decline from the median price a year ago. The median is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

    The slide in existing home sales came after a report Thursday that showed a big 16.2 percent surge in sales of new homes in April that occurred as the median price of a new home fell by a record 11.1 percent from the previous month.

    Analysts said the disparity in sales of new and existing homes for April reflected in part the decision by builders to aggressively cut prices to unload inventory while homeowners are still reluctant to lower their asking prices.

    “It is only a matter of time before homeowners realize that the dream is over and that price cuts are now necessary to sell their homes,” said Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, a Darien, Conn., investment firm.

    The supply of existing homes for sale shot up to a record total of 4.2 million in April, an increase of 394,000 from the March supply. Analysts predicted that this big inventory surge would act to further depress prices.

    “We’re swimming in supply,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research, who cited a number of factors for the unsold homes.

    “Unrealistic sellers, stuck flippers, stretched borrowers, foreclosures. They’re all contributing to a surge in homes on the market,” he said. Flippers are investors who bought homes during the boom hoping to resell them for a quick profit only to be caught as the market softened.

  32. vanreal

    Canada does not always go into recession when the US goes into recession. There have been several recessions that have affected the US but not Canada.

  33. vanreal

    rob, retirement as it has been known is over. Most people will not be able to afford to retire period. Defined benefit plans are gone and defined contribution plans will generate next to no income. People won’t be selling because most people will be working at something well into their sixties. Unfortuate but true. Will this impact house prices. yes probably because boomers will still need to be where the jobs are.

  34. Anonymous

    Vanreal,

    Can you name the dates several recessions Canada has avoided?

  35. vanreal

    yes 2002 and 2003 for starters us was in recession but not canada

  36. Priced Out

    “This was the first time that Canada had avoided following the United States into an economic downturn.”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession

  37. Domus

    Vanreal,

    what a crosk of………!

    Recessions in the US are officially recorded by the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) in Boston.

    There was no recession in 2002 and even less in 2003. the last recession in the US (so called dot.com recession) happened in 2001 and lasted only 8 months.

    If you don’t believe me, have a look at this:

    http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

    This is what I mean when i say people arguing circumstantially: why did you have to write 2002 and 2003? if you were not sure you could just state your opinion, man……..

    Canada’s business cycles are linked almost dounle-thread to the US (just google some working papers from the Bank of Canada). What happens in the US almost certainly repeats itself up here. Do you think that we are just making stories to score a cheap point for the bears? Maybe some of us are just trying to dissuade poor first time buyers from committing the biggest financial error of their lives.

  38. Bears should be patient

    1.Weak Lumber industry
    2.Poor touring and film industry caused by strong
    canadian dollar
    3.Higher mortgage rate
    4. No major companies in Vancouver
    5. High unaffordable rate for housing

    All above improtant factors sit on the bear side.
    We still count on real estate industry alone. I don’t think so.
    Bears should be patient for the burst of housing bubble.

  39. Anonymous

    Canada is linked to the U.S. even more so since NAFTA. (North American Free Trade Agreement) Even if Canada avoids a recession; Canada does not remain unscathed from experiencing some kind of economic downturn if the U.S. enters a recession.

    vanreal must be a young first time buyer to state Canada has avoided “several” recessions. Older bloggers who have lived through several nasty recessions would never say we avoided several.

  40. tqn

    “1.Weak Lumber industry
    2.Poor touring and film industry caused by strong
    canadian dollar
    3.Higher mortgage rate
    4. No major companies in Vancouver
    5. High unaffordable rate for housing
    All above improtant factors sit on the bear side.
    We still count on real estate industry alone. I don’t think so.
    Bears should be patient for the burst of housing bubble.”
    keep hoping that once in this life time, you can tell your friend ” I told you so”.

  41. vanreal

    domus don’t tell me I am full of ….. we avoided the early 2000’s recession and (IF) the us goes into recession this time, we will avoid that one as well. Sorry if it doesn’t fit into your purchase plans but maybe you should have bought 4 years ago.

  42. millionpitfall

    Speaking of calling the kettle black. Thanks for calling me chicken litte.

  43. Skeptic

    Jim: bakakuse: parity is a pipe dream. If we approach it, our exports will tank and our economy will follow. The US owns us.”

    Jim, this presents the Bank of Canada with an interesting conundrum. They need to drop rates to stop the Canadian currency appreciating and killing exports. On the other hand inflation is an issue and may require a rate raise to control.

    I think they’ll be reluctant to raise rates with such a strong dollar.

  44. Skeptic

    mk-kids – I think you are wrong, prices are still rising.

  45. vanreal

    you’re welcome millionpitfall, if the shoe fits….

  46. millionpitfall

    Domus,

    Consider the source and don’t bother.

  47. first_time_buyer

    “keep hoping that once in this life time, you can tell your friend ” I told you so”.”

    some of once in lifetime messages

    “My Fuhrer, the Red Army has entered Berlin”.

    “Mr Bonaparte, we lost the Waterloo”

    “Your Highness, the Hiroshima is bombed”.

    Well, what do they mean, they happened only once in lifetime for these people.

  48. millionpitfall

    skeptic,

    The Bank of Canada may not be reluctant to raise rates, if the U.S. raises rates, as inflation is still not quite under control there either. Hard to predict though.

    Analysts have been saying Canadian rates should hold May 29, but will go up in July. Perhaps, they are waiting to see how the U.S. will battle inflationary pressures?

  49. Gadwin

    LOL, for all the bulls that believe Canada’s economy isn’t highly integrated with the U.S., pull your head out of the sand.

    Fortunately, for those idiots who believe Canada’s economy isn’t highly integrated with the U.S., we’re thankful that you’re not running the Bank of Canada and setting our interest rates.

  50. Gadwin

    I went to look back at Canada’s GDP growth in 2001 and we were at borderline recession but managed to avoid a recession:

    http://www.fin.gc.ca/ec2002/eca1e.html

    We avoided a recession because we only had 1 quarter of negative GDP growth (2001 Q3) rather than 2 consecutive quarters although we were very close to negative GDP growth in 2001 Q2. LOL, pure SEMANTICS.

    LOL, for the bulls that are going to argue about SEMANTICS and claim that because Canada officially didn’t have a recession in 2001, the U.S. has ZERO effect on Canada, heh, you are pretty much full of it but at least you keep this board entertaining for a few good laughs, LOL

  51. e

    if you consider what has propped the canadian economy (natural resources!), you’ll realize that if US and/or China go into recession, then there will be no demand for our exports.

  52. Skeptic

    Gadwin, perhaps you could change your username to LOL 😉

  53. Marko

    Heres some more antidotal evidence to toss out. 2 groups of friends here in Victoria bought houses in the last 2 years. Both bought through brokers. Both lied/bs’ed through their teeth about their incomes to get the loans. One of the couples (who bought 2 years ago) took it a step further and took out a $70k home equity loan to raise their house and put in a basement. They ran out of money with maybe a quarter of the job still to go. Both couples are house poor in a big way.

    So I don’t know much about mortgage brokers but I gotta wonder if either of these couples would have got a loan through the loans department of a major bank. And I’m wondering how many times this has repeated itself over the last couple of years. Brokers are a big part of the Canadian mortgage market and maybe we aren’t as insulated from the Alt/A and subprime problems hitting the US.

    …and if our economy tanks and equity falls.

  54. accountant88

    Skeptic
    May 26th, 2007 at 11:09 am
    Jim: bakakuse: parity is a pipe dream. If we approach it, our exports will tank and our economy will follow. The US owns us.”

    In the summer of 1976 (during the Montreal Olympics), the Canadian $ was worth more than the US$.

    (Jun 24, 1976 — 1.0389 — per Bank of Canada website).

    Did Canada’s economy tank at that time? Is it different this time?

  55. bakakuse

    Parity may be a pipe dream long term ( I have international friends not visiting because of the runaway dollar and loonie-destructive inflation), but short term I see it as a chance. Like accountant 88 said it’s been there before but it doesn’t like it up there….

    Inflation is disgustingly high out west, and the BOC will have to raise rates because they have crossed their fingers for too long.

    Watchout Tuesday for the accompanying statement, the dollar will move for sure in one direction, and I’m not selling loonies for greenbacks just yet.

  56. aetakeo

    If prices plummet volumes and all other things remain equal (%i, employment, economy, etc.) people won’t sell.

    Except in the cases of Death, (Birth), Divorce, or Transfer.
    VHB only mentioned DDT, but I think Birth counts too. If you’re in a studio, and you get married, and then have a baby, you have to leave the studio: and if you cannot get in rent what you’re paying in mortgage, and you’re an average Joe or Josephine, you’re going to have to sell.

    The question is: how much is price set on the margin?

  57. -A-

    Aetakeo, this is my take:

    There does not have to be massive job losses, or a spike in interest rates for prices to fall.
    In fact, the massive job losses will come after the crash. (research previous and current crashes as per US no major economic shock-yet big time corrections in the making)
    Sure people can hang on all they like perhaps even take on an extra job, and keep the neg cash flow, bottomless pit.
    That won’t put a stop to all the new supply from hitting the market.
    And if new supply is not built, the RE related and spin off jobs will evaporate, it’s hard to imagine how these well paying jobs can be easily replaced by new industries to Vancouver.
    One needs to factor out all the construction/government make work projects, to see what the true strength of the local economy truly is.

    A this point a seasoned RE sales agent will now bring out myth card #2010, which says:
    Oh but our RE prices are not connected to our local economy, we have international investors.
    That of course is pure nonsense.

  58. thomas

    New Holt Renfrew store opening on May 31st, double the size of the old one. New Tiffany store downtown, Vancouver’s first freestanding Tiffany store, opened this year. New Cartier store opening. Maybe Vancouver of today is more affluent than the Vancouver of even 7 years ago, and more than average incomes suggest?

  59. Priced Out

    Vancouver has a Roaring 20s feel to it. We all know what came next.

  60. accountant88

    thomas
    May 27th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
    New Holt Renfrew store opening on May 31st, double the size of the old one. New Tiffany store downtown, Vancouver’s first freestanding Tiffany store, opened this year. New Cartier store opening. Maybe Vancouver of today is more affluent than the Vancouver of even 7 years ago, and more than average incomes suggest?

    I would guess that most of the recent home purchasers in Vancouver are not likely to be shopping in any of those places anytime soon as they will be paying their mortgages.
    Even the all-cash purchasers (wonder what % they are) are likely to scaleback some of their discretionary spending.

  61. coco

    Rob,

    Friday’s numbers? If available please.

    Thank you

  62. CheapMan

    Friday’s numbers are not that good so he is waiting to post them with monday’s numbers to reduce the shock! I guss!!

  63. e

    Strong or week, give Rob a break. He would like to have a life like the rest of you! I’m sure he will post the numbers when he gets around to it.

    This weekend was very strong in terms of open house/realtor activity.

  64. jim

    whitebear: Realtor?

  65. coco

    Red hot sales? with fall/winter inventory numbers?

  66. Domus

    Good or not, Friday numbers won’t matter…..
    This market has only one way to go, and it is not up.

  67. Skeptic

    Sorry Domus, wrong again …

  68. tqn

    “Good or not, Friday numbers won’t matter…..
    This market has only one way to go, and it is not up”

    if you want a cheap place, got to go hunting for it. posting on a RE site does not bring you a bargain.

  69. CheapMan

    I was teasing Rob; seems it did not work!

  70. Domus

    Hey, I love when I stir a wasps’ nest…….how many fragile sensitivities when RE is involved. Maybe someone is heavily compromised with it?

  71. tqn

    sky is falling…sky is falling…scary…

  72. Gadwin

    >whitebear wrote:
    >Vancouver SFH sales still red hot. Sold within >two weeks.

    All the bulls like the aformentioned poster that try to hype the market in a hope to keep the market propped up are really wasting your effort.

    No matter how much positive spin you try to spread, it is insignificant compared to the U.S. media juggernaut. In fact, the U.S. media has so much influence on Canadians, it often overshadows our own local media.

    It’s not a coincidence that we are seeing record inventory put on the Vancouver market this year … obviously, many that are releasing inventory onto the Vancouver market this year have been affected by the U.S. media.

    Just give it up and hope that the housing market in the U.S. stabilizes so that the U.S. media has something positive to write about. You can’t fight the juggernaut

  73. Gadwin

    BTW, I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll mention it again. The U.S. real estate run was like a vacuum that inevitably pulled up our real estate market into a run as well. But now, the reverse effect is in progress and the U.S. real estate meltdown will inevitably pull us down as well.

  74. Mr. Pennis

    The real estate market in the United States is totally different than ours.

    To begin with we have a very large population, and very little land left.

    Furthermore, rich people come from all over the world to retire (cause of our weather), and we have the most diversified economy in the western world.

    And that is why Vancouver RE has never gone down.

  75. first_time_buyer

    Rob,

    Are you doing fine, keeping in good health and spirit?

  76. robchipman

    First-Time:

    Thanks, I’m fine. I’ve just been really busy this weekend.

  77. first_time_buyer

    thank god. Its ok as long as you are fine.

  78. Gadwin

    >Mr. Pennis wrote
    >The real estate market in the United States is
    >totally different than ours.

    Mr. Pennis, I hate to break your bubble, but Canada has a 0.62 historic POSTIVE correlation with U.S. housing prices:

    http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/2007/wp07-2.pdf

    I take the Bank of Canada’s unbiased study with factual data over subjective “opinions” and “beliefs” that are not backed by hard data

  79. Noname

    Gadwin,

    I think he/she was being sarchastic, hence “And that is why Vancouver RE has never gone down.”

    Noname

  80. Gadwin

    >Gadwin,
    >
    >I think he/she was being sarchastic, hence “And
    >that is why Vancouver RE has never gone down.”

    Heh, if Mr. Pennis was being scarcastic, it was my bad. There are actually some … not some, more like many … optimistic bulls that actually believe everything that Mr. Pennis said

  81. robchipman

    Gadwin:

    Vancouver, otoh, has a 0.09 positive correlation with the US market. Same report. Same table. And since our buddy was talking about Vancouver real estate, and since the BoC’s unbiased study with factual data indicates what he’s saying, I guess maybe he wasn’t being sarcastic after all. We really are different 🙂

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