Thursday Numbers

There were 97 price changes, of which 9 (9.28%) were increases and 88 (90.72%) were reductions. The average original price was $623,861, while the average new price is $604,889 (-18,972/-2.6%). Average DOM to price change was 51. 

 0.78% of all active listings had their prices reduced today.

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93 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

93 responses to “Thursday Numbers

  1. Brian

    I wonder why the 30-yr bond yield in the US has dropped so much, given the credit crunch and tougher mortgage approvals?

    Bond yields should go up if Fed cuts rates, since it causes inflation.

    anyone has an idea?

  2. Many Franks

    I’m suspect that’s supposed to be 176 listings, not 76.

  3. Many Franks

    (…uh, “I suspect”.)

  4. robchipman

    Thanks, Many Franks!

  5. vomitingdog

    Here we go again.

  6. Keith

    The market will rise this year by 10% and 8% till the end of 2008.

    Then we will have a correction of 4% in 2009 before the Olympics.

    after that it would go up with the inflation (about 2% per year)

  7. rentingsucks

    Make your 4 percent correction in 2009 about 20 percent and I think you’ll be more in the ballpark.

    Also I would look for another 20 percent spread out over 2010, 2011 and 2012.

  8. rentingsucks

    Oh and in case I wasn’t clear that’s another 20 percent down over 2010, 2011 and 2012.

  9. Keith

    That would only happen if there is significant speculation activity combined with hight unemployment, double digit interest rates, and followed by a recession.

    In this case, resort properties in BC or “oil boom” towns in Alberta would experience a drop of about 10%. Vancouver would drop somewhere in between.

  10. DaMann

    Keith

    Calgary and Edmonton are down 10% in 3 months WITH a red hot economy. Unlike BC they actually have an economy not built on RE. IF it doesn’t drop in 2008 then surely it will in 09 once all the projects dry up. As soon as the pshycology changes the game is over.

  11. DaMann

    As well you don’t think there is significant speculation activity already?

  12. DaMann

    One other thing, people are so tight on margins on what they took out for mortgages that if we hit double digit interest rates half this town would be wiped out.

  13. Grin and Bear It

    Yeah, RE will keep increasing when the average household dedicates 73% of it’s income to their home. Riiiiiiiiiiiight. Makes perfect sense. I believe the link to that article has already been posted. When will people learn? I guess when they move on to the street? I can’t feel too too bad for any future misfortune these types may incur because they’re the author of their own demise AND they contributed to the insane RE market.

    Warning: Bear Crossing 🙂

  14. Tony Danza

    Keith, You wouldn’t happen to be a refugee from the NAR in the US would you? Sounds similar to the press releases I was reading from Yun et al. awhile back. Come back in three years and let us know how it worked out for you.

  15. Anonymous

    Gosh I wish I had Keith’s crystal ball. Sounds like you know everything Keith. If you’re so omniscient then how about giving out some lottery numbers? I think your odds of correctly calling the 6/49 are actually higher than the odds that your prediction about real estate comes true. Care to drop some actual evidence for your ‘data’ or are the voices in your head whispering these numbers to you?

    Even anecdotal evidence would be a plus. Anything? Anything at all?

  16. Geezer

    Tony Danza wrote:
    “Come back in three years and let us know how it worked out for you.”

    I hate to remind you but that’s exactly what some people were saying three years ago!

    2007 update – it worked out just fine thanks.

  17. HJH

    The market will not drop until the last one of you “missed the boat” whiners stops posting and throws in the towel.

  18. mk-kids

    I wonder how many of those purchases were made by realtors.

  19. $fromA$ia

    I am looking to buy, anybody know anything with good value?

  20. Johnnyrent

    HJH

    The only towel I’ll be throwing is to those poor unfortunates who are buying now, or have recently, with the expectation of more of the same. If nothing else, it will help dry their tears.

  21. Alpha_Bear

    “I am looking to buy, anybody know anything with good value?”

    Have you considered gold and silver?

  22. -A-

    I can see how we bears “who missed the boat” have a keen interest, in watching the events leading to the big crash up ahead.

    But what boggles the mind is:

    Why is this mania so well followed by so many of you RE holders?

    Are you all realtors?

    Are you all afraid you may have to go back to work at Safeway?

    Surely you don’t think there is more to this bubble and crash talk than just wishful thinking on behalf of those who missed the boat?

  23. Priced Out

    Down in the US, lots of bears never threw in the towel…kept posting away…and their real estate is crashing.

  24. DeeDub

    Care to drop some actual evidence for your ‘data’ or are the voices in your head whispering these numbers to you?

    Obviously, it comes from the same place as the ‘evidence’ for a 20% drop.

    Shrug.

  25. News Flash

    “The only towel I’ll be throwing is to those poor unfortunates who are buying now, or have recently, with the expectation of more of the same. If nothing else, it will help dry their tears.”

    Tears of joy? How about the poor unfortunates who were buying 3 years ago when you were posting similar comments? Those poor soles.

  26. News Flash

    A:
    “I can see how we bears “who missed the boat” have a keen interest, in watching the events leading to the big crash up ahead.”
    But what boggles the mind is:
    Why is this mania so well followed by so many of you RE holders?”

    Maybe because they have money invested in it. So those who have no money invested should follow it closely? Especially when the trend is up. Makes a lot of sense.

    “Are you all realtors?”

    Yes, only realtors own real estate just like only car salesmen own cars.

    “Are you all afraid you may have to go back to work at Safeway?”

    Yes I’m sure they would be if that meant working with you again.

    “Surely you don’t think there is more to this bubble and crash talk than just wishful thinking on behalf of those who missed the boat?”

    How many boats have you missed? You are starting to sound bitter.

  27. News Flash

    “Down in the US, lots of bears never threw in the towel…kept posting away…and their real estate is crashing.”

    If only we lived in the US.

  28. coco

    On the news last night…

    CMHC met with realtors and they all had smiles on their faces as they said real estate will continue to go up and up due to the shortage of land. Even the reporter questioned the laws of gavity about it going down, but noone seems to think about that.

    (Must of not considered those affordability walls and that housing already takes up 73% of peoples income. At what price point does inventory sit and collect dust 800k? 900k? million plus? Eventually, the market will run out of qualified home buyers as it outprices itself.)

  29. coco

    Million dollar plus homes may sell better in Vancouver area, but the million plus home inventory in the Fraser Valley is stacking up like a bunch of dominoes.

  30. coco

    Here is a more detailed print version of the TV news above.

    CMHC expects sellers’ market to continue next year

    http://tinyurl.com/2zfjro

    “Expect the average single-family house price to hit $900,000 in Greater Vancouver next year as new jobs and new residents keep the city in a seller’s market, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.”

    (CMHC must think residents have an endless supply of money on their trees)

  31. coco

    Kinks in the BC economy?

    Sawmills/pulp mills continue to close/layoff due to the declining price of lumber and slowdown in the U.S. housing market.
    ——————————————————
    U.S. tourism has dropped, some Whistler businesses offering U.S. at par with the Canadian dollar as they are worried about business this winter.
    ——————————————————-
    Ontario and British Columbia bore the brunt of the wholesale trade decline August 2007.

    Ontario was particularly hard hit by the drop in automotive sector, as overall sales in the province hit their lowest level of the year, falling 2.9% to $21.2 billion.

    Wholesale sales in British Columbia fell for the second time this year, down 4.9% to $4.5 billion. Declines were widespread, with the most significant drops coming in the personal and household goods, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment and “other products” sectors.
    ————————————————
    Highest immigration rate (2006) was to Manitoba, so even immigrants find our housing too expensive and going somewhere cheaper.
    ————————————————–
    Film industry worried that as the last productions wrap up their contracts, if the high dollar will affect contract renewals and other productions.
    —————————————————
    As the dollar keeps rising, money drains from the BC economy to the U.S. Border traffic up 11% since the dollar hit par. Bellingham car dealership sales are up 40%.
    —————————————————-
    U.S. home builders advertising in your local papers. Why you can buy “eleven” lots in Ferndale, WA for a mere 979k or a three/four bedroom brand new home, 2250 sq. ft. for 339k. Semiahmoo, Birch Bay, Bellingham, etc. starting to advertise agressively.

  32. Wise Guy

    An incredibly biased report, once again, by Global TV. They should be ashamed. But, they’re not.

  33. Johnnyrent

    News Flash

    Three years ago I was an owner, which continued to be the case until 18 months ago. Did I miss out on some significant appreciation? Yes, but per plan after tax and incremental costs of renting I am no further behind, perhaps a little ahead.

    Have I been surprised by the level of appreciation in RE in the past 18 months? Yes again, but then precision in market timing is elusive and in any event I am totally comfortable with my decision. Even the very best case scenario for Vancouver real estate going forward, which would be continued appreciation albeit at a much slower pace, will put me ahead rather than behind.

    But then, I don’t think the very best case scenario will unfold for Vancouver and this becomes less likely as time marches on. We are truly different in Vancouver however not in the way this is popularly touted. Our uniqueness lies in the fact that we are now one of the only if not the only historically frothy metro areas of consequence in North America for which there are no obvious signs of RE market abatement (the operative word being “obvious”).

    If you believe in long term appreciation here without a significant correction, long before 2010, then you would also have to believe that our psychology is different, that economic fundamentals do not apply to us, that rampart speculation and over-building will have no impact and that well documented history is no guide. I’m betting on the converse, and I like my odds.

    Not all of us bears are disgruntled renters, unable to buy or remorseful about not owning. A few of us have seen this movie before, more than once, and we are mindful of how the story ends.

  34. coco

    I forgot to mention this other potential kink in our economy.

    BC government refuses to raise minimum wage from $8.00 to $10.00. A lot of service jobs pay these rates. Try to find a clerk in a store lately? Do you realize longer line ups at the cash registers are caused by a staff shortages, not because the store is busy? (weekends and some evenings are a bit better because at least the high school kids are working)

    Sure you can claim the economy is hot and there is not enough workers to go around. Or…is our high cost of living and low wages making people choose other cities/provinces instead?

    If rents and house prices continue to climb, not only will the service industry employees be priced out, professionals will be too. And…if you think help is hard to find now, you maybe in for a shock in the future, as people move out of the city because they can’t afford to live here anymore. Lack of affordability can eventually cause our own form of subprime. Not enough buyers to buy at the high prices, not enough renters to pay the higher rents to cover the landlords mortgage costs.

  35. -A-

    Newsflash,

    Why are we different from the US?

    Why won’t this boom be followed by a bust this time?

  36. Disbelief

    Reality check!!!! Do we really think that our soggy climate would make millionaires flock and remain. When the priced out residents are all gone this place may be the next ghost town. Vancouver is not a world class city or a retirement haven for the rich and famous. Given the right to choose I would choose a tropical destination or at least sub tropical. Vancouver is beautiful, but eventually Price/value ratio will make that decision. It is only a matter of time.

  37. Anonymous

    Newsflash:

    ““Down in the US, lots of bears never threw in the towel…kept posting away…and their real estate is crashing.”

    If only we lived in the US.”

    Hmm everywhere else in Canada is collapsing too, I suppose we’re immune to all outside influence EXCEPT for foreign investment?

    Deedub:

    “”Care to drop some actual evidence for your ‘data’ or are the voices in your head whispering these numbers to you?”

    Obviously, it comes from the same place as the ‘evidence’ for a 20% drop.”

    You mean the 50% drop supported by three major indices all three of which have been peer reviewed and supported by the economics community for years? That evidence? Or perhaps the evidence that nearly everywhere in the world that has experienced above normal home appreciation over the last 10 years or so is either stalling or crashing right now?

    There is a massive amount of evidence that the market will crash.

    The only evidence that it WON’T crash is that it hasn’t yet.

    But that’s kind of like saying I’ll live forever because I haven’t died yet.

  38. Markets are cyclical, housing is a market

    Poor get poorer, middle class throw money away to worship land. Rich are untouchable.

  39. Markets are cyclical, housing is a market

    It’s not NEWSFLASH, it’s NEWSFLUSH!!!

  40. “… average single-family house price to hit $900,000 in Greater Vancouver next year as new jobs and new residents keep the city in a seller’s market”

    Totally hilarious! almost no salaried job could possibly come close to holding this type of average price up, nor even pair of jobs in a household. CMHC, good humour.

  41. blueskies

    where is VHB when you really need him…

    he could make short shrift of these pumpers in no time……..

  42. Jeff

    Toronto looks like it’s still on the rise. They have experienced about 50% climb since 2000.

    A typical downtown Toronto 2-bedroom condo (900-1000 sqft) selling in 2000 for $250,000, now sell for $375,000. (waterfront properties generally about the same)

    In downtown Vancouver a typical 1-bedroom condo (550-600 sqft) is now selling for $375,000+

    2-bedroom condos (900-1000 sqft) are going for $550,000, $600,000+ (waterfront sometimes at $1M+)

    Something has to give… when is this speculator driven bubble going to bust?

    I have clients that don’t even work anymore because they are making $100,000 a year just living in their homes.

    What has happened to the fundamentals in Vancouver?

  43. -A-

    “where is VHB when you really need him…

    he could make short shrift of these pumpers in no time…”

    Blue, you are joking right? Are you implying one actually needs a brain to rebuttal Rob and his chimp?

  44. News Flash

    “Why are we different from the US?

    Real estate is regional.

    Why is the Canadian dollar going up and the US dollar going down?

    “Why won’t this boom be followed by a bust this time?”

    It might be followed by a bust. I just don’t see the bust coming in the near term.

  45. Anonymous

    Wow NewsFlush, that’s a whole lot of nonsense that you pile together to come up with a conclusion.

    WHY don’t you see a bust coming in the near term, gut feeling? voices in your head? crystal ball?

    This thread I think best illustrates the two camps. Wishful thinking bulls with no sense, no data, nothing at all but wishful thinking and the bears with hard data and proofs.

    I wish for once a bull would actually offer something of value, just for novelty’s sake.

    Your opinion is worthless if it’s not supported by real world factors. I’m talking to YOU NewsFlush, Keith and Deedub.

  46. blueskies

    on a more positive note satv hasn’t shown his mug recently, maybe somebody took him out back and had him shot and pissed on……

  47. blueskies

    Blue, you are joking right? Are you implying one actually needs a brain to rebuttal Rob and his chimp?

    well i did fail his pop quiz yesterday… the one on investing in a Maple Ridge mortgage helper RE on a nice street……

  48. -A-

    Blue, you would probably fail the other quiz… you know the one that says negative cash flow is a good thing.

    It’s so complicated that it has to be explained by Rob.

    Or, maybe other, highly educated and skilled professional, realtors may be able to explain it.

  49. blueskies

    maybe other, highly educated and skilled professional,

    or as Brian Mulroney was quoted:

    “There’s no whore like an old whore”

    or maybe I’m secretly wishing to get banned from this blog … 🙂

  50. Skeptic

    Anonymous: “This thread I think best illustrates the two camps. Wishful thinking bulls with no sense, no data, nothing at all but wishful thinking and the bears with hard data and proofs.”

    Haha, Rob should rename this as a Comedy blog.

    Its the bears who are doing the wishful thinking. Its nice that people have different perspectives though, it would be boring if we all believed the same things.

    You also forgot to mention who’s got the track record, that’s in the bull’s favour surely ?

  51. News Flash

    “You also forgot to mention who’s got the track record”

    The bears have a very consistent track record actually. That is calling the market 100% wrong year after year after year.

  52. Disbelief

    Don’t forget that the media is a very powerful weapon and the bulls corner this market. You hear their bull crap all the time at any time in the day or night. This morning on global said ” real estate is up 8% this year and suspect will be up another 8% for 2008… No hard data just fart in the wind.

  53. Anonymous

    I find it amusing that when I attack the bulls for their lack of evidence Skeptic comes back with, “Nuh uh!”

    Very intelligent discourse Skeptic, but if I may use my own analogy to bring this to simplest possible terms.

    You are going to die one day.

    The fact that you go on living year after year does not alter this fact. If you live to be 250 you may at that time dispute my assertion as you will have outlived the statistical probability that you will die.

    Likewise the RE market in Vancouver will return to normalized levels (say 50% of current values after adjusting for inflation). If after another 5 years I am proven wrong you may call me whatever names you like.

    (I hope this clears it up for you as well Flush, but somehow I doubt you’ll get it.)

  54. tqn

    “This thread I think best illustrates the two camps. Wishful thinking bulls with no sense, no data, nothing at all”
    is it the monthly stats, or forecast collected by bank, realty agency, and CHMC? you meant those hard facts that discredited by the whiners?

    “but wishful thinking and the bears with hard data and proofs.”
    is it the fundamental calculation thingy that house prices cannot be supported by the increase; and therefore, must crash by 70%? Oh, is the proof bunch of cash that each whiner has in the pillow? Give it a good laugh!

    By the way, bulls or bears are good; but the whiners, there must be something in their brains that make them seeing things negatively all the times.

  55. Disbelief

    A gain is not a gain until it is realised. Any realtor or anyone for that matter that has been around for a while knows that markets go up and they go down that is a fact I challenge anyone to deny. The reality is that no one knows when this market will drop. The ones who don’t know history are deemed to repeat it. Something that new immigrants and people who have been behind the iron curtain may not know and it is these people that will be the hardest hit.

  56. Annon

    “negative cash flow is a good thing …”

    Yeah, only in today’s convoluted economy system structured by central banks and government would this make sense. Math is math. Loss is loss. You can go into the thousands of pages Revenue Canada’s tax rules and find holes. But all this is just a stupid circular games between tax collectors and tax payers trying to out smart each other.

    And yes, I understand what you meant by “negative cash can be a good thing”. If you believe this continual progression of enslaving citizens into debts and bubbles central banks created are a good thing, there is much left to debate about then. The fundamental understanding is clearly missing.

  57. Priced Out

    Anyone else see Dan Rather researching the DTES? It turns out that it is not just the butthole of Vancouver or of BC or even Canada. It is the worst place in North America; our little piece of the third world. We will get raked over the coals and deservedly so. In that sense, I am thankful for the media attention that comes with the BIG O.

  58. Concerto

    Majority of recent Coal Harbour pre construction sales has been to international buyers – nothing to do with Vancouver “local” fundamentals such as average income. I guess therefore, the “bear” evidence above only relates to the ‘burbs.

  59. Concerto

    mainly relates to the ‘burbs

  60. Markets are cyclical, housing is a market

    We are in a market.

  61. -A-

    Blue:
    “or maybe I’m secretly wishing to get banned from this blog”
    Be careful or you may get invited out for a “coffee “ by the two thugs that run this blog.

    Skep:
    “Haha, Rob should rename this as a Comedy blog”

    I don’t find this blog funny at all.
    As a student of psychology, I do find the pathology quite interesting.

    The head psycho blogger/realtor has a severe obsessive compulsive ailment, coupled with multiple personality disorder.

    But a rather feisty imagination, and probably an above average intelligence, but extremely low or non existing sense of social conscience.

    A sad and dangerous man, under certain circumstances.

  62. Cympl

    “…Anyone else see Dan Rather researching the DTES? It turns out that it is not just the butthole of Vancouver or of BC or even Canada. It is the worst place in North America; our little piece of the third world….”

    Actually, Dan Rather said that the problems on the downtown eastside of Vancouver are shared by many cities throughout North America, and his story will examine how different cities tackle the problems. The unique aspect of Vancouver’s skid row is it is very concentrated (a legacy of very old liquor laws) and very close to more affluent areas. US cities are sprawling and can afford to spread out and isolate the shady neighbourhoods.

  63. mk-kids

    “This painful unwinding of real estate values is the inevitable end of a bubble created by aggressive mortgage underwriting between 2004 and 2007. Sub-prime lending in the U.S. rose to a jaw-dropping twenty-two percent of new mortgages. That’s not good – but it’s also not our problem.”

    Okay this quote speaks to the US experience but what caught my eye was the time-period… 2004 to 2007 is when the US & Can saw the most dramatic increases in RE appreciation… seems it is fairly directly attributable to “aggressive mortgage underwriting” but I’ll bet we had none of that here in good old Van. I’m sure our toes over ears increases were due to good old fundamentals, right?

  64. Priced Out

    Well, here is what CTV reported:

    “This is as bad as it gets in North America,” said Rather. “Having said that, I admire Vancouver and the people here.”

    “We know that in terms of HIV and hepatitis that until recently, and perhaps still this particular HIV and hepatitis, are on the level of Botswana. And to have that happen in North America, this is a disgrace for all of us.”

    He described the level of squalor in the Downtown Eastside as Dickensian. The 76-year-old reporter spent part of Friday morning at Insite, Vancouver’s safe injection site.

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/2qotrt

    Also, the DTES is hardly the only troubled neighbourhood in Metro Vancouver. Dilapidated apartment buildings are all over East Van, Edmonds, New West, Surrey etc. etc. I just helped move my brother out of building with a subterranean lake in the parking garage, cockroaches, mold, and general disrepair. Countless 30-40 y/o buildings are reaching a crisis in their condition. One on Pandora St. was recently condemned when the roof basically caved in. I think more low-rent buildings will soon be condemned, further adding to our housing crisis as the Olympics approach.

  65. tqn

    “As a student of psychology, I do find the pathology quite interesting.
    The head psycho blogger/realtor has a severe obsessive compulsive ailment, coupled with multiple personality disorder.
    But a rather feisty imagination, and probably an above average intelligence, but extremely low or non existing sense of social conscience.”

    Thank you for sharing self-expression! What does it have anything to do with investing in real estate?

  66. Wise Guy

    A,

    Spot on!

  67. VAB

    Grin and Bear It, says that it takes 73% of average income to cover average housing costs, but that lets people think that there is 27% left over to live on. In reality, that’s 73% of before tax income so, after a modest tax rate of 30%, there is in fact less than nothing left to live on.

    Impossible, right? Not if you own RE. Then you’ve got appreciation to live on and to spend on more RE investment for yourself, or your kids. Appreciation of the market price of a principal residence does not show up in our income averages.

    But what happens if prices stop going up. Then we don’t have the application quasi-income anymore. Then people really do need to spend more than 100% of their after tax income on housing, which really is impossible.

    Then we get an object lesson in fundamentals.

  68. Anonymous

    Priced Out:

    “Anyone else see Dan Rather researching the DTES? It turns out that it is not just the butthole of Vancouver or of BC or even Canada. It is the worst place in North America; our little piece of the third world.”

    You are very naive if you think DTES holds a candle to the crappier parts of the US. Where even the folks who work 2 jobs can’t afford to live in a rat infested hell-hole. Rent Bowling for Columbine some time and check out the part on the 5 year old kid who shot his classmate. Tell me something like that could happen in Vancouver, Mom forced into slave like labour because her welfare would have been cut off, working 2 jobs and commuting 3 hours a day. Forced to live with her drug dealer brother because even working 2 jobs she can’t afford rent on a little crap shack. Our minimum wage SHOULD be $10/hr or more but at least as it stands it’s double what they get in the US.

  69. Disbelief

    They were a fool for buying it for too much money and were hoping for a greater fool to come and save them,’ A little blurb from the Subprime fiasco and a little foreshadow for the specuvestors and any other fool that would buy at the top.

  70. vanreal

    The bears used to annoy me because of their incessant whining about how things were going to nosedive. Now I just sincerely feel sorry for them.

  71. Disbelief

    *

    The bears used to annoy me because of their incessant whining about how things were going to nosedive. Now I just sincerely feel sorry for them.
    Some of us are bulls that have seen the light…. Most of us know to get out of the pot before it starts to boil. Some prefer to stay in and get cooked…. To each his own. That pity will be right back at you. Rest assured… ” Be fearful when everyone is greedy and be greedy when everyone is fearful” There is a lot of greedy bulls out there even with all the recessed markets all around us. The only way Vancouver is different is a wetter soggy and cooler. Not things too pay more for….( still feeling undervalued). Look at the indicators.

  72. Priced Out

    vanreal,

    I feel sorry for this guy. Works two jobs, but has to rent out his bedroom and sleep in the den, and can’t even afford his car and parking spot. But I’m sure he feels rich with appreciation.

    http://vancouver.craigslist.org/roo/468617214.html

  73. Priced Out

    Anonymous,

    I see your point. That women would be much better off wandering the streets of the DTES.

    “folks who work 2 jobs can’t afford to live in a rat infested hell-hole…working 2 jobs and commuting 3 hours a day.”

    Of course, this doesn’t happen in Vancouver.

  74. -A-

    The worst thing that can happen to speculators, such as the two intellectual gimps who run this blog, is that there not are corrections soon.

    There is a growing number of young, well educated, socially conscientious, and politically savvy people, who when pushed hard enough, will rise and use a massive political club to crack the financial balls of these scandalous, offensive and unethical dolts

  75. Concerto

    Have fun with that

  76. Anonymous

    Why all the vitriol bulls? Are you afraid we’re right?

    Honestly if you’re THAT convinced that the market is sound then a) why are you here? b) why are you upset? and c) what possible good is name calling doing for you, just venting your frustration? Well adjusted people under normal circumstances don’t need to lash out simply because someone else has a different opinion.

    Seems to me like some people know very well that they’re wrong but their egos won’t let them admit the mistake.

  77. Johnnyrent

    Van Real

    RE blogs were started, first in the US, because a few people started to feel that things were getting out of hand; that RE prices were becoming detached from all rhyme or reason. At the same time all they read about in the MSM was that things were on the up and up, seemingly indefinitely.

    RE blogs exist for the most part to provide a forum for debate, on an issue not well documented by the MSM and therefore to the largest extent misunderstood by the public at large. In that vein they certainly proved themselves to be far more accurate in their sense of where the market was headed, than either the MSM or the RE community.

    To date, taking pot shots at RE bears in this market is rather like shooting ducks in a barrel, as it was in the US not so long ago. Now in the US, the sorrow you speak of is directed at RE bulls, so many of whom have been blindsided by a sudden reversal of fortune. With the Bay Area, Seattle, LA, Edmonton, Calgary and more recently, Victoria going in the other direction, bulls have now run out of cities to compare Vancouver’s “difference” to. We are an island unto ourselves and the only questions are what are the odds of remaining one, and for how long.

    I maintain that it won’t be long now before things change here in Vancouver – not as fast as many of us had predicted, but sooner than most believe. When it does, it will be documented in blogs such as this, long before the public knows what’s hit them. In the meantime, keep firing away, we’re easy targets, until you lose what little ammunition you have left.

  78. chip

    “Rent Bowling for Columbine some time ”

    Godwin’s Law says the longer an online discussion continues the odds of someone mentioning the Nazis approaches one.

    Basically the longer the discussion the more idiotic it gets.

    I think the Canadian version of the Law replaces Nazis with an approving citation of Michael Moore. Anyone who views the world through this man’s prism is sorely in need of enlightenment.

  79. tqn

    “Honestly if you’re THAT convinced that the market is sound then a) why are you here?”

    last time I check, this is a real estate investment blog, not a RE crashing blog.
    The question is: why is everyone here? I guess each of us has our own motive:
    -general RE interest
    -bullish view
    -bearish view
    -expression of frustration of missing the boat
    -envy of others
    -“pretend to know it all” posters
    -praying for a RE crash so one can laugh at other
    -“i told you so” posters
    Feel free to add to the list.

  80. Markets are cyclical, housing is a market

    How about,” patiently waiting for an opportune time to buy because not everyone is convinced that todays prices are sound.”

    Everyone is entitled to this blog and to put their money where they want to.

    Not all bears are jelous, some are consciencous and want to get the word out before some families get burnt in potential government missmanagment.

  81. blueskies

    -”i told you so” posters

    wow! an honourable mention … 🙂

  82. Annon

    Yeah, this was discussed long time ago. Why the bears are here is clear. Why the bulls are here remains a mystery. I thought it was because of:
    1. They need to see confirmation that RE is still rising?
    2. They are afraid if the wind changes, they want to get out asap?

    Of course, the bulls didn’t take it well back then. It did not sound like the bulls had a lot of confidence as far as what I can see in the responses.

  83. Strataman

    Maybe we could look at another aspect of this boom rather than you missed the boat, and you are going to loose your shirt. Skilled trades, that is really skilled trades, are not available, we don’t pay enough. I have 4 sometimes five highly skilled employees. To keep them I am bumping salaries 20 % this year. To do this I am dropping customers that can’t afford those rates and my business is steering towards very high end clients that don’t ask about price just say do it. My question is, (I do a few Senior Residences now dropped for example), is this really a good route for a city’s economy to go? I’m not hurting, in fact as a bear this boom is great for business, but I feel like a lot of people who thru no fault of there own are going to be unable to afford decent service. I would expect my business is one of hundreds in the same situation. My people are in the $60,000 range so 20% is a big increase. A lot of customers can’t pay that. The business won’t suffer as I have more high end stuff then I can possibly handle. I can’t even look at 10+ year strata’s. Their solution? Massive increases in maintenance fee’s for owners that bought upwards to 20 + years ago…but those people can’t afford it. Is this “good healthy economics”?

  84. blueskies

    2. They are afraid if the wind changes, they want to get out asap?

    may already be too late to grab those “peak” dollars, the ride down begins now and will accelerate ……. the thing with greed is it keeps you spellbound until it is too late.

  85. Strataman

    As a side note one of my techs lives in Surrey the other three downtown. My charge out for the Surrey fellow is $65.00 / hr. He averages 4-6 hours work and the remainder is travel time. The client is charged as is normal the travel time from the minute he leaves home. He does the same work for clients in Surrey for 40 % less charge! Is commuting the answer?

  86. blueskies

    uh oh….

    http://tinyurl.com/yuba7e

    not good for mortgage rates…..

  87. vanreal

    Why am I here? This is a real estate investment blog not a bear whining blog. So the question is why are you bears here. When VHB left probably because he bought a house you are piled over here to continue your incessant whining. My empathy for you bears was short-lived. Now I find you just annoying once again.

  88. John

    Maybe CMHC is:

    1. offering 40 year mortages

    2. no downpayment needed

    Will CMHC offer to start paying the mortages?

  89. blueskies

    Now I find you just annoying once again.

    i’m sure the feeling is mutual…..

    just wait till the bears start doing the “crazy chicken” dance….. now you’ll find that annoying and nauseating … 🙂

  90. Domus

    A while ago some disingenuous poster said something about bankers being rational and lending money in a careful way. Of course, the whole credit bubble is a fabrication of the bulls, his argument was. I think I replied to that with some newspapers headlines. Here is some more.

    To all those who think that bankers/lenders are not losing money: this is from today’s CNN

    “The chairman and CEO of the nation’s largest banking company said Sunday that he was leaving Citigroup, which announced a possible $11 billion in additional subprime writedowns. Charles Prince is the latest victim of the meltdown in the housing market.”

    Please, notice the choice of words: “meltdown”!

    Why did they lose so much money? Well, they did not care in the first place. Even after they are fired, these guys get a large severance package (in the hundreds of millions).
    If things go well, instead, they get great bonuses for taking risks.
    Either way they win: but who lost then?
    Savers, people who hold Citigroup shares (down 30% year on year, like Merrill and Bear Stearns), savers who subscribed mortgage-backed bonds…..

    I think someone will go to jail for this, just like Enron. This is no different.
    12 months from now the big housing bubble will be a textbook example of how NOT to do things. I am confident that many of the lending and promoting practices which are currently common will be outlawed.

    Last note: Vancouver is next! We may be world class, but we are no better than New York or London. And they are getting beaten up. Big time.

  91. ceejay

    And in the meantime, you bears have options:
    4.5% GIC at CIBC.
    Buy some gold.
    Buy some oilfield REITs (what’s a little royalty bump to the big picture).
    Cash under the mattress.
    Vegas!
    Chinese Currency (it will appreciate soon).
    Rent in or near the DTES and really save some smack, er, dope, uh, dough.
    or just hang in there, baby. Newton was right!

  92. -A-

    Blue, I disagree, I don’t find vanreal annoying at all, I think he/she/it is rather entertaining, although not quite as much as Aaron.

  93. Satv's Tail

    Canada’s real estate scene is showing no sign of the weakness sweeping through the U.S. market, as sales and prices continue to rise.BEARS PLS CLOSE YOU EYES
    The country’s priciest real estate continued to be found in Vancouver, where the average resale price jumped $8,000 from September to reach $590,577 in October.
    CREA forecasts that average prices in 2008 will set new records in every province, despite a slowdown in sales activity.

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