The 100%+ sell/list trend has reversed. Rainy days are here again!
Monday there were 272 new listings and 166 sales for a sell/list of 61.03%. Interestingly, as mentioned in other comments, we ran across a multiple offer situation (5+ offers) today. It seems the market loves to confound.
The Best Real Estate Anywhere! 
I’m betting that the market will confound a lot of folks soon Rob.
Thanks for the numbers.
No more over-lists, 90+, and inventory numbers?
WoW;
You bet, with over a trillion dollars in residential real estate in Greater Vancouver and every economic marker available showing that it’s overpriced by 50-70% that means over a half trillion in equity loss for homeowners in the future. To put it in perspective the GDP of BC is only 150 billion, well under half the value of the equity that would be lost.
How long can it go on? Who knows.
Can it go on forever? No, not according to every reasonable economic model ever proposed. I suppose Aliens from another planet could start investing here but short of that we’re in for a brutal ride.
I would like the inventory number too, please.
Love your photos!
…why are people who think the market has peaked smart, and people who own RE “stupid”.
don’t we need to see the future before making these statements?
http://tinyurl.com/23khal
your aha! moment…..
going down?
got gravol?
“…why are people who think the market has peaked smart”
cuz they know how to read fancy chart and ratios, and know which house reduces price, and they have lot of cash.
“and people who own RE “stupid”.”
cuz they dont eat out as much!
“…why are people who think the market has peaked smart, and people who own RE “stupid”.
don’t we need to see the future before making these statements?”
Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.
The history is readily available. Median housing prices beyond 4x Median income is unsustainable. Housing prices beyond 200x their monthly rental equivalent is unsustainable. Any real (after inflation) appreciation in housing prices that is not accompanied by equivalent economic gains inevitably reverses.
THREE hard and fast markers that have proven 100% accurate in the past. All 3 indicate that Vancouver is over double the sustainable level.
We don’t need to wait to know what the future will hold. Nobody can tell you when the crash will come but anyone who’s paying attention can tell you the crash WILL come.
YOY US median price down 4.2%.
Click to access EHSreport.pdf
No inventory simply because I’m too busy.
Glad you like the photos.
I’ve deleted a ton of Snick’s comments. I might keep it up or I might not, but if all he posts are comments about how stupid other people are I’ll probably keep deleting them.
Rob, you stated it was end to the 100% + trend? Wasn’t it just one day?
Just a side note, my father is trying to sell 2 of his investment properties and they’ve been listed at a reasonable price (comparing the area etc). Very few legit takers. The downturn is upon us!
Beware the Bear!
Growl!:$@#!*
For people who think we in a downtrend:
Vancouver penthouse sells for $18M
http://tinyurl.com/3xt252
For what it’s worth, this NY Times article on our condo market gives some perspective on who the high-end buyers are:
Merrill Lynch Reports Loss on $8.4 Billion on Subprime Writedown
http://tinyurl.com/2om9gx
U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Tumble 8 Percent
http://tinyurl.com/229yxr
Alum, thanks for the overwhelming evidence against the ‘downturn’ talk. Wow. Does anyone have anything slightly more concrete than Alum’s article?! Sheeesh. 🙂
Vancouver proper, especially downtown, would be the last to experience a downturn…if at all.
G&B:
I thought we were 100%+ on Thursday and Friday last week. Either way, it was very much counter to the recent trend, which is what, averaging the mid 50s?
The downturn has begun? I guess its relative. We’re still seling pretty quickly, and for good prices. Inventory is low. I guess my point is that we’ve been up (some might say “spoiled”) for so long just about anything can look like down.
Another update…Owner called in two contractors to inspect the leak problems, both said the same thing about the replacing the windows and proper flashings. A copy of the inspection report was also forwarded to the owner today too. Stay tuned…for the continuing saga.
The NYTimes article that Northern Ally refers to is a serious RE puff piece. Check this out:
“Darek Cole, for one, says he feels lucky to afford a home in the city. “Vancouver is a difficult place to get into compared to other cities,” said Mr. Cole, 26, who works for a MARKETING company. He paid $270,000 for a 600-square-foot condo in the city’s Downtown Eastside neighborhood. ”
Okay, this guy works for Rennie. At least they could have quoted somebody that isn’t employed by the BIGGEST REAL ESTATE MARKETING OUTFIT IN THE LOWER MAINLAND. And it isn’t as if they were unaware, because they quote Bob quite extensively earlier in the article.
Just my two cents.
Rob, yes, that is a downturn or am I wrong? Do you think we’re going to go start seeing more in the way of reduced prices? It seems we’re the last ‘bubble’ in North America. In my limited experiences it seems the areas outside of Vancouver are becoming a bit more ‘affordable’.
You bet we’ve been ‘spoiled’ in this market. However, I don’t use the word ‘spoiled’ when I describe it.
I’ve also noticed rents schooching down a tad on craigslist. Units at the Spectrum seem to be coming up over and over again. Maybe speculators renting them out but maybe developers stuck with them. How about that, eh?
“I thought we were 100%+ on Thursday and Friday last week. Either way, it was very much counter to the recent trend, which is what, averaging the mid 50s?”
Umm Rob, 2 days of abnormal activity to not constitute a “counter trend”. It’s just a blip in the statistics and hardly more useful than one $18 million condo. If you were really interested in giving out information on trends you’d show some graphs. How about an update on VHB’s old “You are here.” graph?
Anonymous:
Next time I’ll put on irony tags 🙂
I’m a bit of a tech not for graphs. I’ve done them before but they looked terrible! FWIW, I think we all know that while prices are still strong volumes are falling and price appreciation is slowing.
V-Dog:
I concur that rents are softening a little, but we did get a big jump in them. They definitely lagged prices, and still do. Obviously more sensitive to affordability than sales are.
G&B:
Spoiled depends on whether you’re a seller or buyer, I guess. I’m not sure we’re in a downturn. I think that a lot of liquidity has led to hard asset price run ups while globalization has led to cheap products, hence overall low inflation with some thigs going absolutely outta sight.
Rather than a plethora of reduced prices I think we’ll see sharper pricing all around (in other words, lowered expectations among sellers resulting in sharper intial list prices – after all, sellers watch what’s happening as well). There are more foreclosures these days, also (try some lowballs there).
Coco:
Thanks for the update.
HSBC Financial shuts 30 Canadian branches, could signal more industry cuts
http://tinyurl.com/2cx45z
vomitdoggie “I’ve also noticed rents schooching down a tad on craigslist” Yeh me too, new two bedrooms were always above $2000.00 for the last year, starting to see more and more in the 1800.00 range. 1 bedroom condos can’t seem to rise above the 1400 to 1500 range despite many repeated tries. If they do rent above 1500 they are back on the market soon. One month vacancy is 100 minimum monthly loss for the year so I don’t know why people try to get an extra hundred and then sit for sometimes two months vacant.
Re: 18$M condo sale article:
“The buyer wants to remain anonymous, but the Vancouver property will be one of several he owns throughout the world”
Probably took out a sub prime mortgage for it with a teaser rate. These wealthy billionaire’s aren’t too bright with their money.
“former prime minister Kim Campbell paid just under $2.5 million for a two-bedroom unit in the building.”
Now ex heads of state join the dumb billionaires in buying Vancouver condos.
“More than half the units for sale in the Hotel Georgia project have been sold since sales began last Friday”
Didn’t all these people buying multi million dollar condos hear we are in a downturn.
umm? a billion dollars is not small change and to put it in perspective it would be like having $1000 dollars and spending $18 of it….. almost meaningless from the view point of a billionaire
even if it dropped 60%…. phhhhft! wtf it’s chump change… literally
“Those who forget the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them.”
What is “HISTORY”…….. We are all going to die.
George Bush
Global News Tonight:
“New precedent set for line ups” (at Millennium Water Development)
Going on sale Saturday and people have been camped out for days already.
There is an interesting report on CTV.ca, informing the viewers/readers that even though buyers won’t be able to move into them for nearly three years, dozens of people have already lined up to buy condos that will host Vancouver’s Olympic athletes in 2010.
It is worth reading, zou can find it here> http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071024/olympic_condos_071024/20071024?hub=TopStories
Headline: California wildfires erase surplus housing inventory…
follow the money….
ok, that’s insane, just like Kim Campbell
<>
today’s headline… “Sales of existing homes plunged by a record amount in September as turmoil in mortgage markets added more problems to a housing industry in its worst slump in 16 years.”
But that is the US. Vancouver is diff’t.
CHMC has scrapped the downpayment requirement for investment or 2nd, 3rd, 4th properties!
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=88d4e421-e4ed-4a25-a361-51f1318cf0bb
With inflation on the rise last month this is a very strange move by Dodge to ease downpayments on investment properties, when he has commented on housing price inflation prior to this. Insurance is steep, so that may deter some.
Last sawmill in Terrace shuts down
West Fraser blames U.S. housing slump, strong Canadian dollar
http://tinyurl.com/2otp2n
Warren Buffett cautious on $75bn superfund
http://tinyurl.com/yqmoma
This real estate agent can’t spell:
http://vancouver.craigslist.org/rfs/459045243.html
Rob, maybe you should ask this clown to take his ad down. He makes RE agents look bad. Actually, it will probably get pulled by Craigslist anyhow for not being appropriate.
In the title he spells service as “serive”.
“Looking for that serive you deserve ?” WTF
In the text:
“If your looking then you’ve dont too much already.”
“divisional director of real esate board of grater vancouiver”
“our team consiste of”
and other assorted spelling and grammatical errors.
Subprime losses cast doubt on our banks (Canada)
http://tinyurl.com/37mw9x
Can anyone put up a link to a good site regarding local foreclosures? I hadn’t looked at those in ages because the point was moot until recently (I guess). Rob, thanks for noting that option.
Canadian economy at risk from strong loonie
(2 pages)
http://tinyurl.com/3ypsxg
African:
Thanks for the link. What’s the poimt of the move? Is CMHC simply trying to maintain a dominant market share? I found 2 comments interesting: Marr’s question about Dodge’s reaction, and Benjamin Tal’s comment that the genie was out of the bottle what with us seeing more changes recently than in the last 30 years.
Coco:
Dodge didn’t make the move. I’d expect critical comment from him.
Priced Out:
You could always call the guy yourself, right? He’s conceivably my competition – if his ad looks bad, maybe I look better in comparison! 🙂
Don’t forget that his weakness in English may be compensated for by his facility in one or more additional languages (we live in a pretty diverse town, after all).
Langley, B.C. — Trinity Western University (TWU) is housing a strange new visitor that would make Steve Irwin proud.
A two-foot-long alligator was spotted recently on the TWU campus. Now, a search-and-rescue mission has begun to locate the critter before winter sets in. Volunteers, along with the curator of the local Reptile Refuge, are scouring the TWU grounds for the mysterious reptile.
No one knows where the alligator came from, though theories suggest it might be an escaped or abandoned pet.
Unfortunately, the cold-blooded creature won’t survive long in BC’s cold climate — unless it’s rescued soon, it’ll be “See you later, alligator.”
I’m too busy laughing at the ad to take it down. You may want to consider that such illiterate ads make all RE agents look bad. As for diversity, you don’t have to know English well to use a spell checker.
Is he a “divisional director of real esate board of grater vancouiver”? ;^)
Rob,
Correct, but he was talking to CHMC prior. Government bureaucracy?
Hmmm, its gone now.
Priced Out,
I just clicked on that link, still there.
i think that ad may just be a joke
Are you playing hide & seek with Tuesday’s & Wednesday’s numbers?
I’m surprised that nobody has commented on the NAR figures. If you look at the NAR spreadsheet, you’ll see that the existing home sales in the US are down 28.9% MOM, and down 22.7% YOY.
This won’t affect us, because our economy is based on two weeks of winter sports.
Priced out:
I think you’re seeing satv in his day job!
Alpha_Bear, that is a good find. Thanks. Nice to see a breakdown of sales, inventory, MOI and prices all on one spreadsheet.
“More than 30 people were lined up Wednesday outside of Millennium Water”
Watch CTV news net…realtors waiting in line and a asian guy who told the report he was getting paid $10.00 per hour to wait in line, he was neither a buyer or realtor. Reporter said, $10.00 a hour is not bad, he said it was not worth it. Comical!
“Pierre Serre, vice-president of insurance products with CMHC.”
This guy and his crew should be removed from their positions for being so irresponsible!
owning is priceless – for everything else, there is CHMC.
Man…where is Chan when you need him lol!
Downtown + FCN = 565 listings
Aaaaah. Have I been deleted AGAIN?
I wonder why people post news of the US Housing here. Hey guys! This is Canada, and the city is Vancouver…It is not Detroit….
Read on this -> http://tinyurl.com/2zvfkj
Best place to do business? Not the U.S.
Canada is regaining its stance as one of the world’s top places to do business.
The country climbed a notch to fourth place in the annual Economist Intelligence Unit’s business environment rankings. The U.S., meantime, tumbled to ninth from fourth place – its lowest spot since the survey began in 1997.
Alum, are you serious? You don’t think the issues in the U.S. effect the Canadian RE market and the Cdn. economy? I guess not when one considers your post. The U.S. housing crisis plays a role in our economy and the weak U.S. dollar is going to cause problems in many areas of the Cdn. market.
Grin and Bear It,
Probably a young one, who doesn’t understand the U.S. is a “very” large trading partner with Canada.
Umm Alum did you read the whole thing? It says Canada used to be #1 several years ago. So apparently the results of that survey and RE prices in Vancouver don’t have any special correlation. You can’t just go throwing random statements out there and call it an argument for irrational prices.
coco:
Dodge runs the BoC, not the CMHC. They run their own show, and I bet their worried about the competition.
paulb:
Chan is a her, not a him. I may let her have another crack at posting the numbers, but you guys will have to be kind.
Snick:
For the time being if you say anything mean spirited (calling people stupid and whatnot), I’ll delete your posts. Play nice and you can say anything you like.