There were 302 new listings yesterday, and 116 sales, for a sell/list of 38.41%. Inventory reached 9,789, and of those, 2,319, or 22.37%, had been on the market over 90 days.
Filed under Daily Numbers
Wowee. Check the graph. The trend is your friend.
Hi, VHB, as you are still tracking Vancouver market anyway, why not reopen your blog? We really miss it.
I second the motion. Just put less into it.
ditto. short but sweet analysis and let us bash it out.
I miss it too, but like the springtime of youth, that time is now behind us . . .
I would also be happy to see your analysis back. Even if it’s not that frequently updated.
Think about it: now you could be the time you comment the real crash….
By the way, credit markets are seizing again. Interest rates are unlikely to go down any time soon. Unless an intervention is timely, the US is going down big time.
VHB Just throw in that graph every month! Please? 🙂
This is not the first time we have seen Canadian mining operations hit by the high dollar and now another…..
De Beers took an impairment of $968-million on its Canadian assets due to a stronger Canadian currency and higher fuel, labour and capital costs.
Opec is cutting back oil production to keep the price up. This sent oil soaring back up to $91.77 , almost $4.00 rise in a day.
Opec also is hinting pricing oil in Euros.
Food prices are rising. There is talk of hyper inflation in the future. Gold is on the rise again.
“TimberWest Forest Corp. has announced that it will permanently close the Elk Falls sawmill in Campbell River, B.C. The last full operating shift will be May 9. – 2/8/2008”
Nothing to see here folks, the economy is doing just fine…just fine.
I thought I would look back to see how we are doing………
February 7, 2007 (from Rob’s old blog)
There were 225 new listings and 206 sales today, for a sell/list of 91.56%.
February 7, 2008 (yesterdays numbers posted today)
There were 302 new listings yesterday, and 116 sales, for a sell/list of 38.41%
February 7, 2007 The 14 day rolling sell/list rose to 60.19%. Inventory in my target area dropped slightly to 9,097 today
February 7, 2008
Inventory reached 9,789
Although Rob doesn’t post a 14 day rolling sell/list ratio my guess it is about 40% compared to 60% last year.
Inventory is climbing very fast this year. Looks like something is changing. Ever played crack the whip as a kid?
Vancouver is at the end of the whip.
Who knows for sure but i got a gut feeling the listings are going to explode soon. Why? Many people do not even know about what is going on. They will find out soon. Most people in the US still think their home is going up in value. Incredible.
The market is a rolling top getting ready to CRACK.
The Homeless Families Of Florida 2008
(what the Orlando Tourism & Convention Bureau doesn’t want you to know)
As a side note I have been following the Alberta boards lately. Last few years they have been booming higher than Vancouver. It started to unravel last summer and saw huge price drops, then the price drops slowed in Winter. Well now apparently Calgary just broke 10k listings. 10,074 to be presice. That’s Calgary! A lot smaller than here. On top of that it’s well over double the listings of last Feb, looks like carnage is setting in. Sales have fallen off a cliff.
We can now point to a western Canadian city with a booming economy with a housing market going into the crapper.
Not that I believe this, but it seems that we are “BULLET PROOF”:
Real estate prices helping local economy stay strong
Friday, February 08 – 02:16:32 PM
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – It looks like our local economy is almost bullet proof right now. Other parts of North America may be looking at a slow down, but the latest report from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation indicates there is no sign of a slow down for Metro Vancouver.
There are two really good indicators to see how well your local economy is doing, housing starts and job creation. Robyn Adamache from CMHC says they expect to see the same number of housing starts this year as 2007, which was the third highest year ever.
She says 30-thousand people moved here last year and some 36-thousand jobs were created. Adamache expects after seeing housing prices go up 11% last year, you can expect prices to be 14% higher in two years.
But don’t blame speculators for those higher prices, “The figure we have there has been declining over the past year or so, we’re looking at less than 20 percent of home sales, that are being bought and sold within a year.”
The Vancouver Regional Construction Association says Lower Mainland construction is at a record high right now and the outlook is very positive for workers.
DaMann: they say that weakness starts in less desirable areas (like say Calgary) and slowly moves to the more desirable ones. (like say Vancouver).
Since when is a speculator defined as selling within one year?
With every new press release they look as comical as their US counterparts.
Jesse, I know what your saying and it’s true. But define desireable?
At least Calgary HAS an economy outside of RE and they are a rich province to boot, not to mention that their prices are already much less than ours.
But I know what your saying. Fraser Valley to me is the indicator, no big trends yet there but so far it’s not lookin good!
Sorry Bears, I am jumping ship.
I also heard the 1130 news, and read Newsflash’s posts.
The debate is over. There is no bubble, there never was, and prices are going up another 14% in the next 2 years.
The final clincher came from Robyn Adamache from CMHC .
BTW has anyone ever seen her? Is she doable?
Hahaha – love it and all the posts!
Well, like you said, the CMHC has a rotten track record. (Like the “Conference Board of Canada”)
Snick, have you ever seen her?
Snick, have you seen her?
Foreclosure Flurry Hits Big Apple
affordability, affordability, affordability…..
If it’s an issue in NY, then……
Arizona is in such rough shape that one retail business closes every day. Furniture stores are going out of business because their sales are off 70%. If you want to buy furniture and can’t have it delivered the same day, you don’t bother buying it because the furniture store can be out of business the next day.
Bet he’s hiding under his desk.
“Real estate prices helping local economy stay strong”
LOL, kinda like saying when all the solid pillars of the BC and local economy have (forestry, mining, film, gas, etc.) been knocked out, then the economy is being increasingly supported by a housing bubble.
Or put another way. You can slowly chip away and remove the solid beams supporting a house, relying on the drywall to support the thing. It’ll probably work, especially with enough drywall. But not forever. Then the house collapses.
RE is not a pillar of the economy; it really just an indicator. It should only be a reflection of economic health in P/E ratios, when validated with a proper affordabilty index.
at less than 20 percent of home sales, that are being bought and sold within a year.”
would love to know the stats on units being bought and held for appreciation……
Sorry Bears, I am jumping ship…..
is your ship named “Robyn Adamache”?
Robyn Adamache = fall guy (gal) for CMHC
Saying crap like that at a time like this is a career limiting move but I doubt she is calling the shots…
Canada’s Cotton Ginny stores on brink of insolvency
B.C. planning to license home inspectors
Become a regular contributor here. I’ll give you top billing and you can pick whatever avatar/photo/caricariture that you want. You be good cop and I’ll be bad. Contribute complete posts. Whatever. It will give you the chance to do a little of what you used to do, and apparently you’re well loved, so…do it!
No question. Last year we experienced a slow start, but I think we were clearly up and running by late January. This year is different.
Yes, Rob. It looks like I was right and you were wrong. Oh well.
Kudos to Rob and VHB!!! Lets have it.
A duet on Rob’s blog!!!
Good choice Rob, I mean the pick of VHB over SATV!!! MUHAHAHA!@!!
VHB! VHB! VHB! *the wave*
Wow what an offer, go for it VHB, who wouldn’t want to be a member of the tqn, newsflash, Vanreal, Aaron, and Rob clique.
Rob, find one post in which you rebutall any of the above dog’s posts.
Find a post where you rebut Snick.
Oh look! I proved -A- is Snick. Aren’t I clever?
You’re getting repetitive, my young friend, and you know what that spells for comedy.
Whoops, posted this on yesterday’s thread…
A few anecdotes from today’s errands:
* I stopped by an RE office in Kits to use a phone book. Wasn’t much going on. I asked the fellow “So, how’s the market?” He said that this was the quietest it had been in the last 7 yrs.
* I noted a project under construction on 8th one block west of Granville. 4 stories of concrete so far, looked like it would be a 15-20 story building. Sign said “sold out” So, if they’ve really sold all of the units, that’s about 60 folks holding the bag–it looks like its over a year to move-in date. What options do the buyers have if the value goes down 10% in the meantime? Time will tell…
* My lawyer mentioned that a number of long-time investors were selling their property. Also, she and her partner had stopped looking for something to buy (they’d been looking for 3 yrs) simply because there wasn’t anything available on the market. I suggested she wait another couple years, and enjoy those annual trips to Hawaii on the difference between rent and mortgage payments. She laughed, but indicated she was tired of renting.
* My Realtor mentioned that the market had cooled considerably in terms of buyers since mid-January.
VBH! VBH! VBH!
VHB, you’re the one who hooked me. I started reading your blog before I moved to Vancouver. Look at me now — a regular RE junkie. Rob’s blog is a fine thing. The crack is pretty good here, and I appreciate his numbers, his insight and his great patience. But even just a bit of Vancouver Housing Blog would be nice, be it here with Rob, or on your old site. Now that it looks like we will finally be able to use those arrows with the date on them, it seems a shame not to.
VHB! VHB! VHB! VBH? Vancouver Burst Hysteria?
Seriously, post here when you like. No pressure of your own blog, I know how much time that must consume. This year will be vindication, stick around.
even without any serious commitment I would keep on occasionally contributing here. I like the idea of a forum where you can exchange views with people who disagree with you, that’s why I mostly here.
I think that’s what you would enjoy as well.
no last night he had his ass handed to him on a platter courtesy of VHB.
right now he has his two hands on a flash light 🙂
“we’re looking at less than 20 percent of home sales, that are being bought and sold within a year.”
If it wasn’t a bubble, it would be less than 2%. Normally, this is a sure way to lose money.
“But none of that stopped the National Association of Realtors promulgating a $40 million ad campaign urging Americans to think of buying a house as a get-rich opportunity.”
Naturally, Canadian realtors would never pump and dump, why they are just too nice, just like Rob.
Look, it’s your fault I started visiting all these RE blogs… Now I’m hooked. Come on man, I need some of that good sh*t. Hook me up, dude.
(drawing out each vowel in a Sting-like falsetto): I want my V – H – B…..!
Rob, what is the meaning of this:
“There were 302 new listings yesterday, and 116 sales, for a sell/list of 38.41%. Inventory reached 9,789, and of those, 2,319, or 22.37%, had been on the market over 90 days.”
Seems like nobody is focused on these numbers, probably because, as I said many times before, they are as useless as tits on a bull.
This is probably a stupid question for most here: Does the CPI take the cost of housing into consideration?
To me, the CPI obviously doesn’t reflect it, at least locally. I posed the question to a Financial Advisor from IG and they said that it did. But when I asked how inflation has been so steady of late when real estate has gone through the roof, they were unable to elaborate. It just seems that the “basket of goods” should include the cost of living, ie. mortgage payments, and when I hear about 70% of a household’s gross income going towards it, it makes me wonder what they are considering outside of commodities or is that my answer, CPI only considers commodities? I’ll shuttup now.
Pardon my ignorance, can someone help explain this?
i believe CPI measures rent in their calculations not the actual purchase price of a home….
rents haven’t increased dramatically….
Interesting, thanks blueskies! That’s true here, my rent has only gone 4% or less last three years I’ve been here.
It still doesn’t make sense to me, how one (rent) would be considered and the other wouldn’t.
vansanity, we had a huge row about this over at RE Talks but never managed a resolution because there’s conflicting information out there (even from “official sources”).
“we had a huge row about this over at RE Talks but never managed a resolution because there’s conflicting information out there (even from “official sources”).”
Actually, the full data on this is given on the Statistics Canada website.
Its not true that only rent is considered in computing the CPI. The weighting factors are given on the statcan.ca website at:
These weighting factors are determined by how much people actually spend on each category.
Shelter counts for 26% of expenditures, of which rent is 5% and owned accommodation is 16%. However, owned accommodation includes mortgage interest costs at 5.6%, replacement cost at 3.3%, and property taxes also at 3.3%.
So, the mystery is solved. Even if the cost of property goes up by a huge 50% in one year (as it did in Alberta in 1996), that gets multiplied by 3.3% and only increases the CPI by an additional 1.6% over what it would have been if there were no housing increases. This is correct methodolgy from StatsCan, as only a small part of the population buys a new house each year.
VHB will not open his blog because he traded his blog for a huge discount on a house, probably in van west.
Great find Considering! A bunch of us looked high and low for something like that!
“….as I said many times before, they are as useless as tits on a bull.”
Was that meant to be a pun?
All the “good news” about the strong and vibrant RE market you hear these days is meant for the sole purpose of avoiding panic. The analysts, whoever they are, are even predicting in-migration of 32,000 from the Kingdom of Kash to keep the party going. Good luck, but at the end of this year there is a very good chance you will see a lot of hand-wringing and red faces.
And Coco, do you really believe anything Goldman-Sacks says?
Thanks for the link and the explanation of weighting Considering! Makes sense to me now.
I definately came to the right place for answers.
“The final clincher came from Robyn Adamache from CMHC .
BTW has anyone ever seen her? Is she doable?”
Here’s a link to a previous pump she gave, photo on the right. “Doable” is a relative term. For me? No, she’s definately not, what’s the term…fugly?
Goldman Sachs? The only thing I said is they predicted subprime problems long before they happened and didn’t invest in subprime.
“The final clincher came from Robyn Adamache from CMHC .
WTF kind of question is that? And what does it have to do with anything? Are you “doable?”
Rob, you are a merchant of debauchery, and should seek immediate counseling for your perverted voyeuristic tendencies.
Your unwillingness to edit out some of the sexually charged material on this blog, certainly confirms, and clarifies you are a willing participant to this pornographic and deranged communication.
Shame on you, you are a blight to the Realtor community.
Why do you allow Sidelines’ comment uncensored?
all this bearishness on this blog makes me think that vancouver RE is in for another 15% increase this year. You guys have been wrong for so long. I will follow Rob’s advise and get in for the long haul – I cant loose, can I ? In 10 years I am sure the house I am going to buy today will be worth more.
Cul de sac “In 10 years I am sure the house I am going to buy today will be worth more.” Yeh I think your right, should be able to get a starbucks or two maybe even if you sell in 10 years…maybe!~ 🙂
What would inventory have to reach to cause a fall in prices?
“What would inventory have to reach to cause a fall in prices?” My guess is 14000. Whats your opinion Rob?
Inventory does not have to rise before prices drop.
Inventory will usually rise exponentially as prices drop.
Same as unemployment, it will go up after the bubble bursts.
That is one of the reasons Rob’s dogs will get stung.
They will wait for the symptoms rather than the precursors.
VHB, I’ve even named your new site or your guest posts here right down to the legal type.
*Consult you local real estate agent before taking any free real estate advice from the web. Real estate advice provided by Vancouver real estate agents may cause harm to pregnant or lactating women. Possible side effects include wealth, bankruptcy, divorce, lawsuits, endless phone calls, phony MLS listings, TMJ disorder and lack of fiduciary responsibility. By “real estate advice”, VHB Lite is not limiting this reference to licensees and includes anyone, even your uncle Joe who thinks he knows something about everything. In addition, VHB Lite does not promise to post more than once a week and may limit his postings to once a month and is no way responsible for any withdrawal symptoms this might cause. Embarrassing oneself by being the only person who believes in a Vancouver-based real estate crash at any given party is not the fault or responsibility of VHB or VHB Lite.
What say you, man?
The amount of inventory that will cause a price drop is the amount inventory that causes the Vancouver Sun to say that inventory is not selling. My guess is that this will not happen until the over 90s reach a certain volume, say 5000.
I remember what happened in Phoenix last time: listings went up so fast you couldn’t believe it, but prices held on. Sellers thought it would go back to growth.
It will be the same here. This is the mother of all bubbles!
Domus – given that SOME specuvestors read/listen to/follow what is happening in the US/Spain/UK/Calgary/fraser valley – COULD prices drop faster than inventory grows? I mean, its not like this is happening in a vaccum – what does everyone think?
Could we see price declines this spring?
Good point, but the Olympic effect could cause speculators to hold-on a little longer…if they can.
specuvestors read/listen to/follow what is happening in the US/Spain/UK/Calgary/fraser valley
i see specuvestors as “dumbhappy”
if the buyers are more aware they would just hold off on buying… instant pressure on the seller…..
“OK it’s nice but I’ll check back in 2 weeks at your next open house” 🙂
Right, Rice Queen. A lot of people have factored in a dip between now and the Olympics and the a second larger dip after the Olympics. Lots of inventory and stagnant or slightly falling prices will probably not scare Joe Six Condo. People will not panic until they are told to do so. Then they will do a splendid job of it.
Some interesting info. from diverse sources:
PK project manager told me that all major infrastructure projects in metro YVR will complete by fall, including big venues for Olympics. Lots of soon to be unemployed or underemployed construction folks. Many likely to move on the tar sands for work.
Long-time, West Van high-end RE broker says I’m right – metro YVR RE has been slowing for at least 6 mos. It works like the proverbial iron, which heats up first in the center, and moves to the edges. As it cools it reverses order, cooling at the edges first. There are 3 concentric zones on this iron — outer edge is Delta, Surrey, Ladner, FV; inner zone is Richmond, Burnaby, No. Van. Center is Van westside, Van eastside.
Precursor to the fall in prices in YVR is the cooling in the outer edge, piling up inventory, followed by falling prices there. Next will be same process in the middle zone, maybe late this year, I would guess.
Any thoughts on this as the likely unfolding?
Not the mother of all bubbles. Just a typical local bubble, unfortunately coinciding with a massive worldwide credit bubble.
http://tinyurl.com/2draz5 Think Vancouver is a bubble? The plain in Spain are feeling the pain.
This is schadenfruede porn enough to satisfy -A-. Hey Rob, you’re right, it is fun to yank.
3027 Palmate Way
Sacramento, CA 95834
Total Loss: $301,000
Percent Loss: 35.4%
Asking Price: $549,000
Bedrooms:5 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:4246
Down 30.1% from $785,000 On 2007-01-20
Down 24.8% from $730,000 On 2007-02-09
Down 21.5% from $699,000 On 2007-02-17
Down 20.3% from $689,000 On 2007-03-03
Down 18.5% from $674,000 On 2007-03-31
Down 6.8% from $589,000 On 2007-12-08
Days on market: 385
# of Times Listed: 3
Sold on 2005-05-02 for $703,000
Sold on 2006-09-29 for $850,000
Still on market. It has gone really bad down there, no end in sight.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog Free reg. req. This is an economics professor who called the sequence of events very well.
There are mother bubbles all over, all primed and ready to pop. Globalisation is a powerful force about to show a new twist. A local bubble can deflate without killing the economy, but watch out when the economy goes bad.
Interesting times happening right now
I subscribe to your broker’s theory but there is a fourth concentric circle in the Lower Mainland – the Fraser Valley. If you check out this site: http://tinyurl.com/383odo ,
you’ll see that this area is already beginning to cool off.
I suspect the center with it’s specuvestor concentration would show strain before inner ring.
alexcanuck “I suspect the center with it’s specuvestor concentration would show strain before inner ring.” I agree I think downtown condos will this year be leading down not following. For SFH I think Canyongal is right on.
Your a mooch,… get out there and make some friends, this blog is for people that already have an abundance of friends.
If you don’t like this blog then leave.
Whos cares about the abundance of cock talk or lack there of.
“Looking for a place to live in the Puget Sound region? You’ve got plenty of choices, many of them on sale.
Looking to sell your place? Um, better be patient.
Those were the messages embedded in the January housing sales figures released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The data showed home sales in the four-county region continued to sag last month.”
Same sag story for home sales:
I know, I know, Vancouver is an Olympic City.
I’m curious. Why do you think daily numbers are useless? Is it because you can’t use them to predict the future? Or because you think they’re fake? If the former, then you and I agree. If the latter, could you construct a coherent scenario whereby all the required parties could be kept quiet and the proof of false number provision kept hidden?
Cause if you can show me how its done, we’ll blow the roof off this thing together. (I know, it will be challenging. You’ll need to think for a change).
Rob, I kinda thought you were-not that there is anything wrong with that.
to answer your question I think the price drops will take time.
After oberving this market and the people involved in it, I have come to the conclusion that many speculators actually WANT TO BELIEVE that this nonsense can go on forever. It is a strange combination of elation from previous winning and greed for more of it. It is genuinely difficult for some of them to let go of the golden cow: in fact they turn aggressive when you try to bring them back to reason.
When they tell us that we are wrong, the stupidest of them actually believe it as well. Only the bright bulls are able to argue about facts….and the ones with some skin in the game still try to describe RE as a passable long-term investment. The point is: long term is REALLY long in this case, like more than 10 year long.
So, I don’t know why you are asking me this question: maybe you are a young first time buyer who has been waiting for a while and would like the market to finally wrap up its madness and go back to the point where you jump in. If that is the case, the only thing I can suggest is: don’t try to catch a falling knife. Be patient and you will be rewarded….if you can, rent something stunning for now….it will make your wait worth its while.
Vancouver RE is going to crash big time (I believe it even more strongly thatn I did 6 months ago) but it will take time to unravel….
thanks for the link. This is what I would highlight as well:
“prices for King County condominiums, which had held up better than single-family homes, sank in January to $270,500 — down 6.7 percent from December, and 1.6 percent below January 2007.”
A drop of 6.7% in 30 days! In Seattle (Boeing,Microsoft,Starbucks,Costco and many other big companies)…..
WoW, maybe it will be a tad faster than I thought.
I think its really hard to tell. Different forces pulling in opposite directions. The whole economy is like that right now, including the labour market. What’s cooling me off is my concerns about employment in a recession. I’m not sure how solid my job is (or any job for that matter), so even in the early recession (with initial price declines), I still won’t feel the need to rush. Hopefully, WoW doesn’t either.
So what am I to do… Is it so bad that under no circumstances I should buy?
I am moving to Vancouver to start a job in September with my wife and 2 kids.
I will make 110K per year and have 150K to put down.
I think I can get a property that would give me mortgage payments that wouldnt be much worse than rent.
I am not investing in a property but buying a home- so it is probably a long-term buy- under these conditions why wouldn’t I buy?
I look forward to your thoughts…
renting for 6 months to a year would give you a chance to check out the hood and also let you see how the on going credit crisis/ putative recession plays out.
you are joining us at a very interesting point in the RE cycle.
It really depends on where and what you are planning to buy. Your downpayment and salary won’t get you a house in the city but could get you a condo in the burbs
I posted this over at vancouvercondo.info but it’s buried at the end of a thread.
Two anecdotes from my ski trip today that show both sides of this market:
1) A guy with a 2 bd near Hemlock and 7th’ish had his place on the market before Christmas for 2 months – no takers at 475k. Took it off for Christmas and re-listed in mid Jan. Had a couple of offers with 2 weeks – one of them 30k ABOVE asking. Naturally he’s taken it and cannot believe his good fortune. When it was on the market before Christmas he had load of viewers but only lowball offers.
2) Other person i was with has a 1 bd in P Moody. It’s been on the market for 5 months with no sale. Her words were “Yeah, it fucking sucks, the market in PM crashed around Sept and nothing is selling.” She’s already bought a townhouse in PM and is now stressed by carrying 2 mortgages.
Very strange market indeed. Of course i hope the latter example is more reflective of the market as a whole.
rentorbuy – Since you said your not looking for an investment, if you find a house that you like with a price that you’re happy with, than go for it. What difference would market fluctuations make? If it’s your home, you’re happy, than what difference would a 10-50% reduction, over the next few years, in its value make?
Wishing you luck with the move and your new job!
Houses are still selling well (within a week) in my area if it is a character house. The others take longer but not too long
You could buy a condo in Surrey…or…rent a house in Dunbar. Your call.
I’m not in a hurry (but my wife is!:))
“what difference would a 10-50% reduction, over the next few years, in its value make?”
That’s a whole topic in itself. Better question…are you OK with the potential of seeing your $150k down payment evapourate?
When buying for the longterm, most people think they have found their ideal home and neighbourhood and for whatever reason become disenchanted with their surroundings or are forced to move for whatever reason, after a few years. That’s fine if your confident that you can get your money out and move on. How is your confidence in this current market? I tend to agree with blueskies, rent for a while and check out the hood.
Coco, in reply to my question you asked
“Goldman Sachs? The only thing I said is they predicted subprime problems long before they happened and didn’t invest in subprime”
No, but they pushed the subprime slime onto the public and made a bundle in the process. Besides, they don’t do much investing at all. They make their money from fees. Try this…
Fundamentals remained solid and the U.S. economy was likely to escape a recession.
“This economic shock and the economic downturn is largely driven by domestic problems in the U.S. and it really can’t be remedied by a globally coordinated action plan,” -Glenn Maguire
We Will Escape Recession -treasury secretary Henry.M.Paulson.
There is more pain to come from forclosures-Jim Flaherty
This side of border:
Wages rising at twice inflation rate:
Hourly wage growth continued at a vigorous pace in January, increasing by 4.9 per cent year-over-year. That’s more than double the annual inflation rate of 2.4 per cent.
Canadian economy is clearly chugging along at a much healthier pace that the American economy — and that may make the Bank of Canada more reluctant to aggressively chop interest rates.
We are Canadian cities we are not American citiesCanadian Economy in Hi-Definition Multimedia Interface window media/ video.
Statistics Canada said January’s job growth was entirely a result of increases in full-time employment, as the number of part-time jobs actually fell.
The private sector was responsible for all of the job growth as the number of public sector and self-employed workers dropped.
I will make 110K per year and have 150K to put down.
I think I can get a property that would give me mortgage payments that wouldn’t be much worse than rent. – Rentorbuy?
It really depends on where and what you are planning to buy. Your down payment and salary won’t get you a house in the city but could get you a condo in the burbs – Vanreal
This seems to me to be a problem. Here we have a guy with a decent down payment and making 110K per year and his options are a condo in the burbs!…
If it’s your home, you’re happy, than what difference would a 10-50% reduction, over the next few years, in its value make? – Vansanity
If the market corrects in the short term it will mean a lifetime of payments that could have been reduced drastically by holding out in the short term. *disclaimer* I have no idea when the market will correct. It’s your gamble. My moneys on a correction.
I messed up my ‘bold’ commands. The above should read as follows:
If it’s your home, you’re happy, than what difference would a 10-50% reduction, over the next few years, in its value make? – Vansanity
“I think I can get a property that would give me mortgage payments that wouldn’t be much worse than rent.”
Maybe the payments will remain as low as rent, or perhaps when the official CPI can no longer hide the fact inflation is running @ 8% plus, mortgage rates may jump to 10%.
Alternatively, if the economy slows enough to bring inflation down so low, that interest rates can stay low, will you be able to keep your 110k job.
I hope it’s not a government job, because when tax revenues drop, and the Olympic bills become due, the government, will have to cut costs or raise taxes, and I doubt, there is much room for tax increases for stretched home debtors, so I would think there will be cut backs in spending.
In any event you should contact your local realtor who is a highly trained professional who can best guide you based on your individual circumstances.
But as Blueskies pointed out before, please, be sure to count your fingers after you shake hands.
My wife and I have a combined income similar to Rentorbuy’s, but a larger down payment.
A year ago, we were pre-approved for a $500-700K mortgage (depending on whether it had a basement suite, or whether the mortgage broker “pushed it”) on a 35-year amortization. Include a down payment, and it’s enough money to buy an “average” home in the burbs.
This is my potential plan:
Apply for a 40 year mortgage at CMHC with no downpayment and no principal in payments.
Buy the maximum possible of a house or condo somewhere.
Open up a numbered company (corporation with limited liability). Real estate agents may do this.
Get my license. Transfer my investment to my new numbered company in Bahamas.
Rent or lease it out until the Olympics come then blow it off to some sucker from out of town.
If I can not find a sucker I walk default.
What do ya think?
“In broad strokes, the parallels are alarming. After a long boom, the Japanese economy in the 1990s, as America’s today, was jolted by a sharp plunge in the real estate market.”
Hey, I’m not making this stuff up. Well alright, the source is not Real Estate Weekly.
“What do ya think?”
Based on your above plan, you would end up in jail.
In Japan there is virtually no immigration. That is a large difference to start with.
In Canada and the US as as most western countries immigration is what keeps the economy going. Otherwise everything would collapse with out a doubt…just like Japan.
When you have immigration this supports the growth for constuction, industry, the stock markets…you name it.
WITHOUT IMMIGRATION EVERYTHING WOULD COLLAPSE. ….no question….they arent doing it for your health.
So even as the birth rate drops to zero they will simply increase immigration. If you cannot afford to get married and have kids………..that is your problem. They do not need you anyways because you are easily replaced.
Interesting development in Victoria: http://www.victoriastruth.blogspot.com/
Apparently 55% of this development’s condos are unsold. In addition to recent price cuts of up to $65,000, prices now include GST. Must make the 45% who bought before this deal feel a little queasy.
vancouver is the drug capital of Canada…
Mighymouse has it right.
The problem is that this guy has a decent downpayment, a good job and is still priced out of RE in Vancouver.
Investors have no stable income very often, they took chances and gambled on houses. They got lucky. Is this situation a new equilibrium? Can it last? I really doubt it.
Bobbybear – your plan sounds like fraud to me
-A- : “Maybe the payments will remain as low as rent, or perhaps when the official CPI can no longer hide the fact inflation is running @ 8% plus, mortgage rates may jump to 10%”
Good point -A-, inflation is probably at 8% or higher depending on who you believe. Govt’s manipulate the figures to hide this.
If we assume inflation is 8%, when RE appreciates 12% in a year its a real return of 4%. On the other hand a GIC doing 4% is actually going backwards in real terms by 4%. Sure there’s a different risk profile. 🙂
RE as a hedge against inflation ? That idea should get a smile out of you and Snick ! hehe
“If we assume inflation is 8%, when RE appreciates 12% in a year its a real return of 4%. On the other hand a GIC doing 4% is actually going backwards in real terms by 4%. Sure there’s a different risk profile”
Skeptic, did you learn this axiom from one of those correspondence schools?
Even dog master Rob would find your statement indefensible.
Please, can you update the red graph you used to have on your blog and post it somewhere so that I (and other Rob bloggers) my have a look at it.
Rob can you see if you can aquire this graph as well for this blog?
Booby Bear, your comment on immigration for the most part I agree with but the opportunity for a Canadian to immigrate to the US is really hard I find.
On another note, I went out grocery shopping today. It seams that just about all the people we seen looked like they were in such a panick, such an urgency to get their things and leave. I’ve never seen this in Vancouverites before.
Wow is this what $300k-$500k mortgages are doing to the general population that wants a piece of the never ending price appreciating action in homes?
Is the pressure on er’ what?
Since Re. is suggested as not being a sound arena to invest currently, where do you guys think would be a safe venue to secure one’s hard earned money? I think for some people, having something tangible (Re.) is implied security versus stocks and mutual funds, hence a lag reaction the N. A. economic issues.
Paul has a great inventory chart here:
Not quite as detailed as the VHB chart, however we will soon be able to compare four years of inventory.
Speaking of inflation. Do you know anything on the role of delation in the collapse of asset bubbles ? Inflation means the money loses value until the nominal asset price makes sense again. The printing presses run overtime. Argentina anyone? Deflation is actually trickier.
Read both, the second is the important one. Remember too that these are talking about the US $
I mean the VHB red chart of average condo prices since 1981. Showing the spike we’re on and how the last couple of years have added on the graph.
The RE agents in West Van are saying it’s been a fast start to the year. They’re picking 7-8% gains this year, 3-4% next year.
Me, I just want the ice and 1m of snow to go away (was too lazy to shovel it, and so compressed it into ice, then got another 1m dump, and even my cayenne can’t get out!). Trying breaking up a season of ice with a spade.
Next year I’m buying a snow shovel and being a good little boy.
well if the numbers do not mean anything how come everybody follows the numbers, VHB and others have graphed them and Rob has been posting them for eons?
your probably smoking something weird here in the drug capital of Canada where the dealers live like kings and the cops live in Surrey and the laywers and judges are……..well who knows what they are doing….
Renterboy? – “I will make 110K per year and have 150K to put down. I think I can get a property that would give me mortgage payments that wouldn’t be much worse than rent.”
That all depends what you want to rent. If you want a house with a yard and privacy in a nice middle-upper class neighborhood you might be right but it depends upon your tastes. If you’re moving to Vancouver from somewhere else I’d rent at first to find out what area you want to move to own. Also I don’t know how stable your job is but beware the dangers of requiring 100% employment all the time in order to pay the mortgage.
The other things to watch are knowing how expenses at the place you are living now compare to Vancouver’s: property taxes, food, utilities, transportation, and extra-curricular activities for your kids. A friend who lived in Montreal was shocked at how much more things cost in Vancouver when he moved here.
I think the market is starting to tank quite ruthlessly.
This is anecdotal, and so of course, takes it with a grain of salt.
I have a realtor lady friend which I get together with once in a while for some “naughty times” and I had noticed before of an inverse relationship between her sales and her drinking.
Naturally it’s not up to me to be the guardian angel for her liver, but the problem is she tends to get a little too kinky when she drinks too much.
As of late she has been getting very drunk and very kinky.
How drunk and kinky?
Last night she invited her girlfriend to join us, and she wanted to make a DVD of the sordid thing.
What should I do?
“What should I do?” Well when you wake up you will realize that your still not getting any!
were they both realtors?
isn’t there something in the Agency Bluebook forbidding this? rob? anybody?
ps: DVDs’ are passe, try youtube and you can share
My father-in-law was talking to a good friend in Toronto the other day. His friend was saying that prices in TO have been dropping substantially (down approximately -20%). Has anyone heard the same?
New property transfer tax in Ontario took effect Feb 1. Also there was a news article on TV, that I was told about, but didn’t see…some people are forced to sell or going into foreclosure because they bit off more than they could chew mortgage wise.
Under the new Ontario bylaw, buyers will pay 0.5 per cent on the first $55,000 of their home’s value, 1 per cent between $55,000 and $400,000, and 2 per cent on any amount over $400,000.
There is one group that can avoid the tax, or at least a part of it: first-time buyers. They are eligible for rebates of up to $3,725 on residences costing up to $400,000.
TransLink board gets 500% pay raise
(Up, up and away your taxes go….)
B.C. now Cocaine Central
Last night she invited her girlfriend to join us, and she wanted to make a DVD of the sordid thing.
Is this a rhetorical question? Or perhaps your not “up” for the task
I think it’s time you discover Redtube.com or youtube.com…… You really need to let off some teen steam. Maybe let your Dad know while your at it you can both watch it together even perhaps invite SATV.
blueskies, I would upload it on youtube, but I fear I’d end up nicknamed Tripod-A-, however, the bulls, being “deficient” would try to say that I have very short legs.
“My father-in-law was talking to a good friend in Toronto the other day. His friend was saying that prices in TO have been dropping substantially (down approximately -20%). Has anyone heard the same?”
Here’s an excerpt from National Post Feb 4/08-
The average price for a Toronto resale home fell nearly $20,000 in January, the Toronto Real Estate Board numbers showed, a potentially worrisome portent for 2008.
Maureen O’Neill, the president of the real estate board, said the drop in the average price of a resale home, from $394,931 in December to $373,449 in January, was the first month-to-month drop in at least seven years. “That’s quite unusual,” she said. “It’s the first time the average price has gone down since 2001, which is as far back as we checked.”
The average price is 6% higher than January, 2007, but lower than the December average price.
we all know the drug dealers run Vancouver…so we have to get rid of fake justice system….u see the fake justice system does nothing because their main concern is their pension….and a few bucks here and there…i mean vote for what? please somebody tell me
we spend 100 million dollars a year on fake justice system?
the best liars are those you think cannot lie
“That’s quite unusual,” she said. “It’s the first time the average price has gone down since 2001, which is as far back as we checked.”
I love this! It’s like they never even imagined that such a thing could happen. And what, after all, would be the point in checking back earlier than 2001, after all life on earth did not begin until 1999.
I appreciate all the comments. My job is secure- not government and salray will rise with inflation-based raises and performance-based bonuses.
Just looking around there appear to be liveable family houses (3-4 bedrooms, yards, near ok schools etc) in parts of east van and even new west that are in the low 600s.
So I think I am in a pretty good situation- I don’t have to buy anything for 4-5 months and can watch the trends and could rent if I have to.
It will be interesting to see who is right- although after reading the spin on this blog I think that no matter what happens to RE in Vancouver everyone will claim they were right all along!
So you’re considering at a mortgage of close to $500K (after your $150K down payment) with a $110K salary? Is there other income? Will your wife work?
Make sure you find a good house inspector. Vancouver is full of former grow-ops or otherwise poorly maintained houses. Our climate is punishing for a wooden structure.
If you have to choose between East Van and New West, go with New West. Neither is nearly ideal. Might I suggest the Tri-Cities.
Anyhow, you are smart to rent at first.
“The average price is 6% higher than January, 2007, but lower than the December average price.”
Didn’t this just happen in the Fraser Valley (according to FVREB stats)
“I love this! It’s like they never even imagined that such a thing could happen.”
If Toronto prices declined $20,000 with an average price roughly half of Vancouver, what does that say for Vancouver’s outlook.
It’s like they never even imagined that such a thing could happen.
exactly! denial runs deep
and Vancouver is even worse……
that’s why i’m looking for cracks in the market.
something has to give…. and soon…..
Regionally, prices again rose at the fastest pace in Saskatoon, which led the nation with an annual price increase of 45.1 per cent.
now half the population in Saskatoon believes this will happen again next year…..
another keg for the party has arrived…
Paulson: U.S. Banks need to raise capital quickly
European shares took a tumble on Monday morning after finance ministers from the Group of Seven hinted over the weekend that the global economic gloom would worsen.
Mum is the word….central banks……how bad is it?
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Despite numerous reports showing home values in historic decline, more than three out of four homeowners believe their own home has not lost value in the past year, according to an online survey.
Hope springs eternal, especially when distracted by shiny toys and celebrity worship. US market of course.
Maybe central banks are not telling people how bad everything really is because if they it would cause a panic. Adding that to a credit crunch would not be good.
Maybe central banks are not telling people how bad everything really is because if they did it would cause a panic. Adding that to a credit crunch would not be good.
“If Toronto prices declined $20,000 with an average price roughly half of Vancouver, what does that say for Vancouver’s outlook.”
That’s just crazy. You can’t compare Toronto with the best place on earth.
We are the California of the North.
Oops, can’t use that one anymore can we?
I have more respect for TD (claim not to have invested in subprime or promoted it so far) than Goldman Sachs.
If they predicted it and made money by promoting to others that is just as bad as being in it.
Subprime slime, loose financial regulation and greed is capitalism at its worse.
Financial Times UK
There is now clearly the possibility of a severe and prolonged recession, followed by a long period of low growth.
So the risk of a global deflationary depression is small.
whew! dodged that bullet…
……..widening array of financial-market problems threatens to trigger a new phase in the global credit crunch…………
Note: A strong Buyer’s Market does not necessarily mean that it is not a good time to sell your home. Likewise, a strong Seller’s Market does not necessarily mean it is a bad time to buy a home. We suggest contacting one of the Real Estate Professional.
You can also say subprime is a bit like the dot.com bomb. Some people knew tech would boom/bust and made a lot of money. Some people knew subprime would boom/bust and made a lot of money too.
So if you know a certain industrial sector will boom/bust in the future, would you invest?
Is it buyer beware? Or guilty by association?
Blueskies, you said “that’s why i’m looking for cracks in the market.
something has to give…. and soon…..”
Take heart. It is a fact of life in this part of the country that when Ozzie the “oracle” Jurock speaks, people stand up and take notice. No one would argue with that. Anyhow, last Saturday on Mike Campbell’s CKNW’s Money Talks he said pre-sales on new projects are not selling. Maybe that’s the “crack” you are looking for.
“The Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers are expecting losses from securities linked to the US subprime sector to reach 400 billion US dollars, far more than the 100-150 billion dollars that the Federal Reserve has predicted.”
So we would only be a 1/3 there so far based on this prediction.
Other economists have stated the subprime problem has a long way to go and we have only seen 40% of the problem so far.
Coco asks “So if you know a certain industrial sector will boom/bust in the future, would you invest?”
The short answer is no. There is an old Scotish saying: When everyone is running to something, Stop. When no one wants something, step in. Works every time.
subprime problem has a long way to go and we have only seen 40% of the problem so far.
CDOs’ based on credit card debt, car loans and car leases, LBO debt, commercial RE debt
all these have to be unwound in one form or another, this will not help the banks capital base and could put severe pressure on the banks ability to lend.
potential buyers should not be complacent.
damn,Krrish1 nail down VHB over vancouver condo
Blueskies wrote – ” that’s why i’m looking for cracks in the market. omething has to give…. and soon…..”
I think we’re in an inverse Keynes market right now – the opposite of the old “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” saw. Currently it’s something like “Vancouver can continue defying logic and fundamentals well past the point where you were certain it could not”. Eventually there will be a snap, but it won’t be according to anyone’s agenda.
“Eventually there will be a snap, but it won’t be according to anyone’s agenda.”
Maybe, you must realize some of the pros have superior knowledge.
Rennie, Muir, Pastrick , the boys at ReMax and Lepage, are professionals, and they know when the market is about to take a little breather, and therefore the plan is to announce the minor correction expected, on the Bill Good Show.
However it must be understood, that any bean counter can run the numbers through a spread sheet, the real intricacies’ lies in the interpretation on the tea leaves which is more art than science, or a combination thereof, and that’s when the real brain power is called andAaron and Rob take center stage
Auto parts maker Martinrea International Inc. plans to close its Kitchener, Ont. plant by April, 2009, eliminating about 1,200 jobs in one of the largest factory shutdowns yet in the storm battering Canada’s auto parts industry.
from the fine folks at PHN in Vancouver:
3 pertinent questions:
Three questions are raised: Is a contraction in U.S. consumer spending inevitable? Can interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve save the day? And is a significant slowdown in global growth inevitable?
“Just looking around there appear to be liveable family houses … in parts of east van and even new west that are in the low 600s.”
Yep. Lots of areas to live in with your stated income. The question at the back of your head is really: will you be able to afford an even better area if you wait for X years for prices to come back down?
Life’s pretty short though so welcome to the world of tradeoffs! As for the neighborhood you will find variance from street to street. I’d still suggest renting for a time and find a good network of people that can suggest good streets from first-hand experience.
Why worry about increasing debt? We’re told that Vancouver’s different and fundamentals don’t apply to the greatest place on earth!
Hourly wages rising but debt climbing faster
Monday, February 11 – 08:15:00 AM
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – Your home may be worth a pretty penny and your hourly wage probably holds more promise than it did a couple of years ago but that’s probably not enough to cancel out a hefty debt.
According to the Vanier Institute’s Current State of Family Finances Report, hourly wages in Canada are rising but debt has climbed seven times faster since the early nineties.
On Vancouver streets, one man says borrowing may bury us. He says if they give money to us, we take it, and that’s just the way it is, and it’s always been like that. He says the more they want to give you, the more you want to take it.
Another man says we’ve lost touch with the value of a dollar. He says if someone paid you in cash every day, you would know the value of that money. He says if you buy a loaf of bread with that money and saw what you had left, it’s real. He says when you use a credit card, which is just plastic, it’s easier to go to a restaurant and spend $300 because it doesn’t seem to have any value.
The report finds the average household debt now rings in at close to $80,000. For some people, it means giving up dreams of home ownership, and for others, it’s living without dental insurance, a car or even summer camp for the kids.
Ahh, the first of many misses…
Canada New-Home Price Index Gains 0.1 Percent, Misses Forecasts:
Just a quick comment–
It would be great to have separate numbers for Vancouver West and the Downtown Peninsula. Paul has them lumped together, there’s reason to believe they’ll behave differently in a slump. I emailed him and suggested this a couple weeks ago, he said he was too busy, etc.
If anyone else thinks this would be a useful differentiation, drop him a line.
Or we could take turns counting them on http://www.realtylink.org — count them every Monday — SFH, Condos, townhomes for Van West and Downtown.
The theory is that if there’s a train wreck, things bust up and go shooting off in different directions. And if you monitor two different train cars bundled together into one number, and one flies off the tracks and the other one stays on, your data will simply say you have a small train wreck.
I’ll take the first Monday of the month, anyone else?
BTW, http://www.realtylink.org shows 7 new listings for Point Grey SFH today, inventory is still at historic lows, but that was a 30% increase in number of listings.
The Fish gives numbers with a breakdown. (http://fishre.blogspot.com/) I don’t know how useful a really detailed breakdown is going to be. When seven houses make a 30% difference, it’s going to be very hard to see the difference between noise and trend.
“It would be great to have separate numbers for Vancouver West and the Downtown Peninsula”
Believe it. In the 1982 crash, the West Side held its own.
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