Tuesday and Wednesday Numbers

There were 323 new listings today and 150 sales, for a sell/list of 46.44%.  Inventory reached 9,533, of which 2,370, or 24.86% were over 90s.

 Yesterday there were 286 new listings and 148 sales for a sell/list of 51.75%.

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70 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

70 responses to “Tuesday and Wednesday Numbers

  1. WoW

    Thanks Rob – at this point, are you noticing any trends that might be bullish or bearish?

    Thx

  2. robchipman

    Not really. We’re in negotiation on a place today at the price we recommended at New Year’s. Well priced stuff seems to sell. Same as always.

  3. robchipman

    dmello:

    Can you email me privately? I want to find out some more about your question.

    Thanks.

  4. TI

    I am thinking a question.

    Will the interest rate reach two digits as inflation loses control like 1970s?

  5. Anon

    Rob,

    last poster in the last thread posted an mls number that referred to 40 properties that are available for sale.

    Is this really 40 units of inventory that is counted as 1?

    40/10000 = 0.4%, so if that is the case, what would you guess is out there in unlisted inventory?

    I agree with you that this isn’t necessarily NEW inventory, but is it reasonable that REAL inventory could be closer to (or more than) 15,000?
    – approx. 125 instances of the above observation

    Do you expect this trend would become more or less prevalent in the event of ballooning inventory?

  6. mike@gmail.com

    Yeah, it’s a great question Anon.

    With condo completions / condo glut, the question is .. are we going to be seeing real inventory on the MLS, or is it going to be less and less accurate as a picture of the real situation.

    Very interesting!

  7. In other words, is the MLS a shill selling system, or does it take an imperfect but impartial picture of the market, listing as it should how it should when it should. In other words, how subject to manipulation is the MLS?

    If the answer is very, why does anybody pay any attention to any stat pumped out by a real estate board at any time?

    If the answer is imperfect but impartial, I would expect there is no way to hide a condo glut, once the resale market gets flooded.

    Which is it?

  8. Mightymouse

    Last years numbers on this date:

    “The 14 day rolling sell/list rose to 56.55%. Inventory in my target area rose to 9,101 today, while over 90s rose marginally to 2,909 (remaining at 31.96%).”

  9. Popeye

    I am glad to note that some here don’t believe inventory numbers as put out by the Board (REBGV). The average Bull watches the numbers like a hawk and cheers the low listings which he heartily believes in.

    By spewing out soft numbers the GVREB knows people are more willing to enter the market than would otherwise be the case. It’s all about money as there is far more revenue flowing to the Board in a bull market than a slow one. Their allies (stooges) like Royal LaPage, Re/Max, The Vancouver Sun, and even Ozzie Jurock are the shills in this game, each playing its role of the “useful fool” in a desperate, foolish attempt to keep the RE train running at top speed.

    The last thing the GVREB wants to see is a huge inventory of unsold houses. It means the 6-year ‘party’ is over and rush to the exits. Buyers will now take their time and become picky and choosy or, more likely, hold back looking for a ‘bottom’, exacerbating the situation even more. The Board does not want to see is a US-style shakeout but you can bet more than your morning donut it’s coming.

  10. domus

    Why the hell did this guy buy? He should be renting, for his own life…..

    ” Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Joe Ripplinger took out a $184,000 mortgage in 2006 and makes his payments every month.

    Now he owes $192,000.

    The 66-year-old Minneapolis house painter has a payment- option adjustable-rate mortgage. It allows him to write a check for $565 a month even though he owes $1,300. The difference is added to the mortgage, and when his total debt reaches $212,000, or after five years have passed, he said his monthly minimum could jump to about $2,800, which he can’t afford.

    “We’re barely making it right now,” Ripplinger said.

    The estimated 1 million homeowners with $500 billion of option ARMs are beyond the help of interest-rate cuts by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. While subprime borrowers face an average increase of 8 percent or less when their adjustable-rate mortgages reset, option ARM homeowners may see their monthly payments double after their adjustments kick in.

    “We call them neutron loans because they’re like a neutron bomb,” said Brock Davis, a broker with U.S. Express Mortgage Corp. in Las Vegas. “Three years later the house is still there and the people are gone.” “

  11. coco

    Anon,

    The practice of listing several new properties under one to three MLS numbers has been going on for years. This goes on with new properties whether condos, townhouses or homes.

    Practically every area has them, you just have to look for them.

  12. Anonymous

    I believe that savy developers with lots of unsold units tend to list a few units on the MLS at a time. If a purchaser was to see dozens of units on the MLS in the same development it would give him/her significant negotiating power for a price reduction. I believe this was the case with the Laguna on W. Georgia last summer. A little different than listing 40 homes under one listing but another factor that skews inventory downward.

  13. coco

    Warren Buffett spoke in Toronto yesterday

    http://tinyurl.com/2dqtkh

  14. Popeye

    Anonymous, you said
    “I believe that savy developers with lots of unsold units tend to list a few units on the MLS at a time.” To my knowledge only a licenced realtor can list a property. Developers hire non-licenced agents to move their units, and anything that takes forever to sell eventually goes to auction.

  15. satv

    Anon unless rob get back to your question lets try to solve this.
    Real Estate Type : Single Family
    Building Type : House
    Bedrooms : 5
    Bathrooms : 4
    Interior Floor Space : 3718 sqft
    Storeys : 3
    Built in : 2008
    Land Size : 0.10 ac
    Title : Freehold
    Location : 2648 162ND ST
    Surrey, BC V0A 0A0

    $900,000

    “Is this really 40 units of inventory that is counted as 1?”-Anon

    No this is just one house out of 40 see the floor area and bedrooms while there are other unit discribe as 2 bedrooms as following.

    “Over 40 new 2 storey homes with fully finished basements in Morgan Heights, South Surrey’s newest neighbourhood. Built by RAB Properties, one of the Valley’s premier home builders, these homes offer the finest in features and quality”.

    So the other homes might have been sold otherwise discription would be like this “there are 40 homes to choose or 20 homes to choose”

  16. satv

    “2 bedrooms as following” just disregard this could be similar size as one is listed.

  17. Brittany Spears

    My friend in Florida just pulled as much equity out of his home as possible via a 25 year 2nd mortgage with a 15 year term @ 1%. It automatically resets at 6%.

    All I can make of this is: “buy time and spend more.”

    I have never heard of a mortgage like this before. Any ideas?

  18. blueskies

    nice try on the spin satv, but the bottom line is you need an increasing number of speculators to step up and buy to keep this party going…..

    using sleight of hand to hide inventory overhang will not work for long, you need the speculators to keep buying….

    are you willing to buy now?… if not why?

  19. satv

    Blueskies,

    there is no time line or price line for buying and selling people buy homes for stability,confidence, and peace of mind in their life for that anybody can pay high price according to their pockets otherside if you lose type of satisfaction, there is no value of the unit, you can donate your property to someone for free.

    There is a saying that”Homes are made with desirable matterial, with hands ,with cranes and demolished with bulldozers and detonators”

    you can feel the emotion of buyers and seller in the above saying

    so no body can predict the date of buying and selling.

  20. Noname

    Satv – “so no body can predict the date of buying and selling.”

    Good.

    Since my rent is much cheaper than my mortgage would be, there is no reason whatsoever to buy today.

    Noname

  21. blueskies

    so no body can predict the date of buying and selling.

    wrong! buying now is buying into an overbought speculative market… now is not the time to buy…

    or as rob puts it… the metrics don’t work…

    buyers now are buying on the hope of equity appreciation and not on the fundamentals…

  22. satv

    “wrong! buying now is buying into an overbought speculative market… now is not the time to buy”…

    bussiness point of view has nothing to do with buyers and sellers .

    “Since my rent is much cheaper than my mortgage would be, there is no reason whatsoever to buy today”.

    that’s what we call satisfaction so renting a homes is satisfy your need but does not guarantee the future prospectus.

    when a family man rent a house he is acctually investing in a rental life,when housing price hurt you today that will hurt our childrens by double triple margin in another 20 years.

    still satisfaction is better than buying and renting there is nothing beyond happiness.

  23. blueskies

    still satisfaction is better than buying and renting there is nothing beyond happiness.

    satv i call bs on this!

    in honour of your linguistic ineptitude and religious house rapture i’ve just written your name on a “Hempire 1/4” rolling paper rolled a doobie and set 1 end of it on fire….

    i will now sit in the sun and read my newspaper and finish my americano….

    it’s a “bear’ thing……

  24. satv

    ” i call bs on this!”

    sounds like you have never ever heard of pan guest and homelessness.

    enjoy your day blueskies try again some othertime.chow

  25. Ymir

    satv said:
    “sounds like you have never ever heard of pan guest and homelessness.

    enjoy your day blueskies try again some othertime.chow”
    Was it supposed to be “ciao” ?

  26. domus

    Fed’s Fisher on Dissenting Vote

    Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fisher spoke in Mexico today: Defending Central Bank Independence. Here are his comments on why he voted against the rate cut last meeting:

    At the last meeting of the FOMC, I voted against lowering the federal funds rate—the target rate we set for banks to loan overnight money to each other—from 3.5 percent to 3 percent. The minutes of that meeting will be released on Feb. 20, 2008. It would be inappropriate for me to discuss the deliberations; however, I can give you a perspective.

    I spoke earlier of [former Fed Chairman] William McChesney Martin. He famously said that the job of a good central banker is to take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going. For the past few years, we have had a raucous party of economic growth fueled by an intoxicating brew of credit market practices that financed a housing boom of historic, and late in the cycle, hysteric, proportions. With the benefit of perfect hindsight, some have argued that the Fed failed to take away the punchbowl as the subprime party spun out of control, leaving rates too low for too long and not using our regulatory powers to restrain excessive complacency in the pricing and monitoring of risk. But that is beside the point.

    Now we are faced with the consequences of a process that lawyers would call the “discovery phase”: As big banks and other financial agents confess their acts of fiduciary omission and excesses of commission, credit markets have effectively de-leveraged important segments of the economy, slowing growth suddenly and precipitously. Instead of taking the punchbowl away, the Federal Reserve is now faced with the task of replenishing the punch.

  27. coco

    U.S. Economy: Pending Sales Drop More Than Forecast

    http://tinyurl.com/26kjsw

    “The deepest housing recession in a quarter century has caused builders to cut back and spurred declines in employment among housing-related industries such as mortgage lenders. Rising jobless rolls threaten consumer spending”.

    `The economy will fall into a recession, but exactly when, we don’t know,”

  28. coco

    U.S. January Retail-Sales Numbers Worse Than Grim Forecasts

    http://tinyurl.com/287g37

  29. coco

    Canada Economy Reels as U.S. Slowdown Cuts Factory Orders, Jobs

    http://tinyurl.com/2ena6k

  30. coco

    “Credit Union Central BC notes that the outlook for BC depends heavily on US efforts to contain its economic problems to housing, and to spark recovery with interest rate cuts.”

    “BC wood products now account for about 30 per cent of the province’s exports to the US, down from a historic level of 40 per cent. Non-wood exports from BC matched the 2006 level in 2007, but they would decline if a broader US recession takes hold.”

    “A prolonged US recession would also drag down economic growth in other BC export markets such as Japan, Europe and emerging markets in Asia.”

    “In any case, BC’s exports and economy will feel the downdraft from south of the border, but domestic strength in the economy should provide sufficient offset to drive moderate growth during 2008, with brighter prospects for the second half,” Credit Union Central BC says.”

  31. satv

    Was it supposed to be “ciao” ?

    Satisfaction.

  32. domus

    So much for investing in California: see what this housebuilder is saying today.

    Horton: More Bad News

    A few headlines from D.R. Horton (largest U.S. homebuilder):

    Cancellation rate 44%.

    Housing environment is “Challenging”

    Average ordered home price fell 17%.

    Inventory of homes is “too high”.

    Cancellations high in California, Arizona, Florida, Las Vegas.

    California housing market won’t recover in next 12 months. (!!!!!!! Exclamation are mine…)

    Pricing weaker than expected.

  33. coco

    U.S. recession could be worse than recent downturns

    http://tinyurl.com/3y6hqm

  34. coco

    The recession of ’82, those of us that are old enough to remember how much fun that was.

  35. domus

    So, let’s count the positives for RE over here:

    – booming exports and economy ? Looks unlikely.
    – high immigration rate ? Definitely not in the past 3 years.
    – cheaper credit? Could not say I see much of it lately.
    – relatively cheap current valuations? Must be joking.
    – strong increases in rents and incomes? Not a shade of it.
    – under-supply? Have a look outside your window. Can you count the cranes?

    What is there to be bullish about? Bulls welcome to answer.

  36. coco

    PepsiCo 4th-quarter profit falls

    U.S. economy must be in bad shape if people are cutting back on Pepsi and Doritos (which Pepsi owns)

  37. domus

    I think people are probably renting less movies and/or going out less in the US.
    The consumer data out today are abysmal, the worse I have seen in many years.

  38. Burden of Proof

    “What is there to be bullish about? Bulls welcome to answer.”

    Of course, the fundamentals do not support a bullish case. That has been the situation for a number of years now. In fact, the bull market has been sustained through deteriorating fundamentals (slowing US economy, increasingly loft RE valuations, bubbles bursting in UK and USA).

    Therefore, there must be something to be bullish about. That something is local confidence.

    Local confidence has been set ablaze by the Olympics, strong dollar, relatively strong economy (until recently), the fact that in 2001 the US went into recession but Canada did not, the quality of life surveys and the “best place on earth” marketing machine. Overconfidence leads to irrational exuberance.

    It is like a gambler who wins his first few bets and believes that he is invincible, emboldening him to make bigger bets. When he begins to loose, the residual confidence causes him to keep betting. Of course, when reality sets in he is deep in the hole.

    Perhaps the bull will run longer. Fundamentals have been ignored for years. They will continue to be ignored until something happens akin to a “slap in the face” which give the locals a sinking feeling in their gut. I have not seen such a “slap” yet, although world events seem to suggest that one is on its way.

  39. Anonymous

    Of course this is not Vancouver:

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm?cnn=yes

    Headline from CNN:

    Home prices set to slide in ’08
    National Association of Realtors pulls back on outlook and forecasts second consecutive annual decline in prices and sales

    By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
    February 7 2008: 11:34 AM EST

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — In a fresh sign that the nation’s housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

    The Realtors, in its monthly economic and sales outlook, is forecasting a 1.2% drop in prices of existing homes sold this year.

    Only a month ago, the association was forecasting that prices would be flat in 2008 and that the home market would rebound in the last half of the year.

    The group was forecasting that the first quarter would see a record 5.3% drop from year ago levels. Now it’s expecting the current quarter to see even a larger decline in prices of 6.1%.

  40. Burden of Proof

    BTW, I personally believe this is a city of fools. There are two kinds of fools, and like all fools, they both part with their money.

    First, there are the fools who bid up real estate prices on the basis of supreme but ill-founded confidence. They will part with their money in the RE crash.

    Second, there are the fools, like me, who thought that the bullish fools were actually rational people with critical thinking abilities who would not bid prices up beyond fundamental support. These fools, like me, parted with their money in the de facto drastic depreciation of their savings that results from RE inflation.

    However, the latter group of fools can have redeption IF there is a crash and IF they buy at the comming low and thereby mitigate the depreciation in their savings.

  41. Anonymous

    “Over 40 new 2 storey homes with fully finished basements in Morgan Heights, South Surrey’s newest neighbourhood. Built by RAB Properties, one of the Valley’s premier home builders, these homes offer the finest in features and quality”.

    “So the other homes might have been sold otherwise discription would be like this “there are 40 homes to choose or 20 homes to choose”
    __________________________________
    Actually the listing reads **Over 40** new 2 storey homes with fully finished basements” so unless you visit the development in person you would not know the exact number of homes that the “one” MLS ad represents. It could be 50, 80, etc. whatever “over 40” actually means.

  42. domus

    I think cash is a good place to be right now, with the few exception related to soft commodities and food producers. You can hedge inflation and be on top. You will have you Warren Buffet moment some time soon, when your money will buy things you don’t even believe you can afford.

  43. Ymir

    “These fools, like me, parted with their money in the de facto drastic depreciation of their savings that results from RE inflation.”

    Last time I checked $700,000 can buy you lots of things and most of them will be much, much nicer than a rotten, leaky tear-down shack in East Van…

    My savings are fine and so are yours. You’re not a fool – the fact alone that you’re recognizing your own imperfection places you outside of that “elite” part of population… And most of all neither you or I are slaves. Now that’s a sad life to live.

  44. -A-'s Little sister

    Every time my bother thrashes Rob really badly, Rob comes back as Satv.
    Sad, it must be some kind of psychological disassociation, and clearly a coping mechanism.

  45. satv

    Anonymous
    February 7, 2008 at 12:38 pm

    No the developer here described the type of environment around this perticular house other wise two story sq.ft. will be vary compare to sq.ft. of this listed unit, is a 3 storeys house.

    There is no point to sell 2 storeys while listed home is 3 storeys would you like to do that.

    If i have to do something like that I would go like this “there are more selection to choose from price starting this much and sq.ft starting this much etc.

  46. coco

    Vancouver…. Real estate: growth in listings outpace sales

    http://tinyurl.com/2uuv86

  47. tqn

    “Last time I checked $700,000 can buy you lots of things and most of them will be much, much nicer than a rotten, leaky tear-down shack in East Van…”

    the same thing can be said for the time before last and last and last, and $600k, $500k, $400k etc…how much will it be the next time you check?

  48. Anonymous

    Real estate board president Brian Naphtali said that with listings outpacing sales, “it appears the market is heading toward more balance.”

  49. Strange Days

    When Real Estate Crashes, will Vanacouver still be a desireable place to live? What industry will replace RE construction and speculation?

  50. domus

    tqn, this is for you man….

    David Lereah (National Association of Realtors, USA):

    “These nattering nabobs expect a housing collapse to take down the U.S. economy. But excessive pessimism is unwarranted: Fears of a housing bubble are overblown…

    The good news is that demographic, tax and economic factors explain most, if not all, of the greater-than-expected activity in housing.”

    -May 31, 2005

  51. Cool Guy

    coco
    “Vancouver…. Real estate: growth in listings outpace sales
    http://tinyurl.com/2uuv86

    This is good news for a healthy market. Markets should adjust themselves from time to time. The would be buyer should take advantage of this opportunity.

  52. tqn

    Thanks Domus, you are the man! You are a very good researcher.
    Like my son said “oh oh, scary”.

  53. Annon

    So who here think walking away from mortgage has nothing to do with moral issues as long as they are legal? And they are legal by the way.

  54. blueskies

    walking away from mortgage has nothing to do with moral issues as long as they are legal?

    morality is highly over rated…..

  55. -A-

    Further to what domus was saying:

    “In a fresh sign that the nation’s housing crisis will worsen, home prices are likely to decline in 2008 for the second straight year, the NAR said Thursday.”

    “The Realtors, in its monthly economic and sales outlook, is forecasting a 1.2% drop in prices of existing homes sold this year. Only a month ago, the association was forecasting that prices would be flat in 2008 and that the home market would rebound in the last half of the year.”

    “The group was forecasting that the first quarter would see a record 5.3% drop from year ago levels. Now it’s expecting the current quarter to see even a larger decline in prices of 6.1%.”

    “The group is also forecasting a 4.8% decline in the number of existing homes sold this year. A month ago it was still forecasting a 0.9% pickup in the sales. Existing home sales plunged 12.8% in 2007, according to the group’s figures.”

    “‘We’re seeing a pattern that is consistent with skimming along the bottom of the cycle, and sales could ease modestly,’ said Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, in a statement.”

    “The Pending Home Sales Index fell 1.5% to 85.9. That was better than only the record low of 85.5 set in August.”

    “The Realtors have been recently lowering their price and sales forecasts with each monthly update. The group still has a more bullish view of the market than other outside forecasts.”

  56. jesse

    Annon: “So who here think walking away from mortgage has nothing to do with moral issues as long as they are legal? And they are legal by the way.”

    I think most Canadian mortgages cannot be “walked away” from, unlike some of the products offered the US.

  57. domus

    Just to comment some more on the NAR in the United States (of course, the Canadian counterparts are much more honest), here is an interesting link:

    http://tinyurl.com/33arze

    What credibility can these people have any more. And they are still fighting their corner: they actually write they expect a recovery in late 2008! This is joke, RE is sinking at the fastest pace since the great depression, and they still write a straight face lie.

    When you have to put food on the table…..

  58. Dyugle

    It is moral to expect a family to do without healthcare, food, education and retirement just to keep paying the mortage on a house that is falling in price. Moral obligations of a contract versus the moral obligations of family. Which one do you think wins out?

  59. domus

    I think that morality is irrelevant for the final outcome. The questions are:

    – is it easy to walk away from your mortgage over here? From what I hear around, yes.

    – given the circumstances, would most people walk away? Again, maybe I am a cynic, but the answer is yes again.

    If credit standards go down, many people may have the incentive to do so when their equity drops into negative territory.

  60. jeff jeff jeff

    Interesting; Mish has his own take on the morality debate today:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  61. alexcanuck

    Nodding their heads with caffeinated vigor, bubble-believers gathered around the espresso machine and said “I told you so — even Greenspan thinks the trend is unsustainable.” These nattering nabobs expect a housing collapse to take down the U.S. economy. But excessive pessimism is unwarranted: Fears of a housing bubble are overblown.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB111749811222546623.html

    Except not Lereah. Unless they both said it. Easy to say, isn’t it. “Fears of a housing bubble are overblown.”

  62. Vansanity

    I got into another “discussion” about RE today. A friend is thinking of buying and is quite bullish still, shocks me… then again… nothing shocks me.

    As some have said the market has ignored fundamentals for quite some time, and probably will until the “slap in the face” comes as Burden of Proof stated.

    After much debate I put the following to my friend : I’ve made money both in RE and stocks. I would never buy a stock at a 52 week high, why would I borrow to invest hundreds of thousands more to buy something that is currently on a 52, no, 104, no wait, 260…lets just say an unprecedented high? Not to compare apples to oranges, this is just simple economics 101 buy low/sell high… am I insane?

    If you guessed the answer was everyone wants to live here, give yourself a pat on the back.

  63. Anonymous

    domus,

    Tqn is twenty something, has never traveled to the any of the high foreclosure states to see what is going on there in person. They think the economy and life will carry on as it has been since they were born in the eighties. The “oh oh, scary” comment says it all. Recession is just a word to them, not a reality they have ever lived through.

  64. Anonymous

    Another 257 forestry workers in British Columbia will soon be out of work.

    TimberWest Forest Corp. says it will permanently close the Elk Falls sawmill in Campbell River, B.C., in May after attempts to sell the mill for more than two years failed.

  65. alexcanuck

    http://tinyurl.com/yphgtj

    “Tens of thousands of homeowners with home equity lines of credit are getting a rude surprise: They’ve been told by their lender that they can no longer take money out on their credit lines because sinking home prices have left them with little or no equity.

    Among the lenders taking such action is Countrywide Financial Corp., which sent 122,000 letters to customers last week telling them they could no longer borrow against their credit lines. In some cases, according to the company, the borrowers are now “upside down” — the total debt on the home exceeds the market value of the property.”

    Standing frozen to the ground watching a slow motion train wreck, pieces of debris tumbling through the air, getting closer and closer. At first the thought of personal peril is laughable, the wreck is so far away. By the time the sense of danger kicks in it’s too late to run.

    This year is not business as usual.

  66. anonymaker

    Like my son said “oh oh, scary”.

    What is scary is that you are “teaching” your son compassion, empathy, and economics.

    I have read your comments for a while, and I think that you are… (insert adjective here).

    So, do you take financial advice from your son?

  67. blueskies

    I have read your comments for a while, and I think that you are… (insert adjective here).

    (satv)

  68. tqn

    anonymaker,

    I teach my son not to hide under blanket and being scared. I teach him to stand up and face the reality.
    I take my son to Chinatown, hand him the the change to put it in the hand of the needy, and tell him, when he grows up, he should do something to help those people.
    Have you ever volunteered to take a senior out for a walk? Have you ever delayed rent collection because your tenant has emmergency?
    Compassion and empathy, yeah, you fell it, but do not help to fill others’ stomach. Action does. Now, tell me, how do you teach yours?

  69. tqn

    Anonymous, February 7, 2008 at 5:41 pm,

    you like making assumption, I guess.
    Hire a good financial advisor, you would live through the tough time.

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