Friday Numbers/ Giants Game

There were 229 new listings today and 106 sales for a sell/list of 46.29% Inventory reached 9,021, with over 90s at 2,421, or 26.83% (dropping).

 I’m going to have some Vancouver Giants tickets available next week.  If you’d like to go keep your eyes open for details. 

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131 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

131 responses to “Friday Numbers/ Giants Game

  1. Over 90s will continue to drop as inventory balloons, that’s not necessarily a positive sign as more and more listings come on market.

    I would think having around 2400 units on the market now that were already there for three months or more at the start of the spring listing/selling season is not a good thing. I would expect it starts that season with some potential for some real downward pressure on prices as depressed sellers adjust to the reality that it ain’t happening for their piece of overpriced junk.

    My $.02.

  2. Fish

    Rob- the over 90’s are dropping because there are more listings coming on.

  3. alex

    Two things: http://www.incometrustone.com/
    This is where capital direct raises money, offering 13.99%! Pretty good return.

    http://www.capitaldirect.ca/todays_rates.php?link=footer
    this is rate sheet for borrowers,ranging 5.65 to 7.00%. WTF!?
    So, is this bait and switch, are the rates actually ending up credit card like, 18 or 24%? Is Capital Direct leveraging the deposits until they squeak? Last time I checked you’re supposed to loan out at a higher rate than you pay. I am suspicious when things make no sense. Anyone know how this works? Could capitaldirect be in trouble, desperate for cash?

  4. M-

    Alex: I suspect they’re slicing and dicing their mortgages to come up with collateralized debt obligations, or whatever they were called.

    If you invest in their highest-yielding 14% tranche, you’ll get the riskiest component of the mortgages they make. If all borrowers make all their payments, and if no money is lost due to foreclosures, you’ll get your 14%.

    However, if the market flatlines, and money’s lost, it comes out of your monthly distributions, or out of your principal. If borrowers fail to make their payments, you don’t get anything, and your principal may have to cough money up to the holders of the more secure tranches, which perhaps only pay 5%, but are the last ones to lose money or fail to pay the monthly distributions.

  5. WoW

    Rob – are you seeing any basic trends/forecasts in the numbers? Strength/weakness/neutral?

    I likewise sense that things are cooling, and this market has been driven by mass hysteria, so wonder what will happen when the ephoria has been taken out of the mix…ever stayed at a party when its a few hours past its prime – the scene turns kinda ugly – if your sober and watch it unfold in front of you.

    Interesting times….

  6. craigy

    rob,

    fyi you are not the “chip” that i and others responded to a few days back. you get enough flak that you don’t need the flak intended for others. 🙂

  7. M-

    Another point on that Capital Direct investment:
    *1. Current returns are based on a small portfolio of mortgages with a short history.

    Any recent mortgages with a short history were made during a big real estate boom– it’s next to impossible to lose money. Also, choosing a “small portfolio of mortgages,” they don’t tell us enough to know whether they didn’t have enough mortgages to have a good sample, or whether they chose their best-performing, highest-interest mortgages.

    And for that 13.99%: if somebody’s credit is so poor, or they’re such a risk that they can only borrow money at 13.99%, then how much do you trust them to actually make their payments? Eron Mortgage comes to mind…

  8. M-

    Whoops, forgot to close the italics after that first line.

  9. Rob, hope you don’t mind me reposting this.
    Youtube removed last video.

    Great tune with a great message!
    Realeased in 1989, I guess everybody in the U.S. wasn’t listening?

    This is “The Road To Hell”

    “And all the roads jam up with credit
    and there’s nothing you can do
    It’s all just bits of paper flying away from you.
    Look out world, take a good look what goes down here.

    You must learn this lesson fast and learn it well.
    This ain’t no upwardly mobile freeway

    Oh no
    this is the road
    this is the road
    this is the road to hell”
    _______________________

    Good old Chris Rea, a bit prophetic eh?

  10. Newcomer

    “a bit prophetic eh”

    Well, I don’t see much “hell” in the housing markets or the economy, even south of the border, to tell the truth. What we’ve got so far is great prosperity followed by some inconvenience. Sometimes I think the bears forget that it is just money, just numbers written down someplace. Even if all the numbers written down are negative, nobody’s going to starve.

  11. -A-

    Speaking of the Road to Hell.

    Rob says
    “ BTW, did you contribute to the blanket drive or push the Kiva button yet? Or are you a poor student or something?”

    I think I see you crude logic:

    Charity is good, Rob gives to charity, it then follows that Rob is good.

    Sorry Rob, but Karma doesn’t work like the Carbon Tax Credit System, so avoid polluting your soul my friend.

    The public display of charity such as the blanket drive is nothing more than a trite and empty gesture.

    When you give a cheap blanket to the destitute or a meal on Thanksgiving, it hardly mitigates your contribution the plight which your industry creates by pushing the marginalized into substandard housing, or working class people into a 40yr mortgage sentence.

    If you do not change, your poor soul will smolder for eternity in the crucible, crowded by the likes of Rennie, Bill, and Muir.

  12. tqn

    WTF????????????
    Sorry Rob.

  13. Disbelief

    Sometimes I think the bears forget that it is just money, just numbers written down someplace. Even if all the numbers written down are negative, nobody’s going to starve.

    You sound a little bullish… If the numbers are negative and you are mortgaged to the nuts in a 40 year amo with a petty 5% down. You may not starve but you will drown. Once the cycle starts to spiral down it takes a long way to cycle back up and that’s a lot of sleepless nights and worry. There are a lot of people out there like this….
    Makes me happy I got in at the bottom.

  14. blueskies

    tsusiat:

    are you a former poster on patrick’s blog?

    if so, my how times have changed!

    bay area mantra: it’s different here!
    troll: marina is prime!

    ah…….nostalgia

  15. beans

    -A-

    It seems silly that you can blame Rob or Realtors for this massive appreciation of housing prices experienced in recent years, or the fact that people are choosing to take on 35-40 year amortizations.

    40-year amortizations, 0% down, etc were of course introduced by the banking sector and the mortgage insurance companies, despite higher risk. They offered products under new risk parameters. Consumers did not have guns pointed at their heads to adopt these products. If they did, it should have been a rational choice, either they were willing to trade-off other spending and allocate more to housing. This is still an “efficient” choice on the part of the consumer. Additionally, they may find it optimal to get into the market. I have never met a Realtor that guaranteed a leveraged rate of return, but they have stated returns in recent years. This provides more information to help the buyers in making decisions, I have never had one tell me what to offer for a home.

    Additionally, you speak of shills. The problem here is that you don’t understand what it may be like to work so closely to the data etc in an industry. I know many economists in many different industries including housing who are analysing this data 24/7. When asked to comment, they are in fact expressing their best judgement on the matter given the available data and experience.

  16. Skeptic

    tsusiat and others, cast your browser back to this time last year: http://rireb.blogspot.com/2007_01_21_archive.html

    You’ll note that inventory is about the same as last year (9,021 vs 9,158) and over 90’s are slightly lower (2,421 vs 2,976).

    What short memories people have.

    If our current numbers are bad, I’m not too worried. Lets wait till inventory is 20% higher than last year before we start getting concerned.

  17. robchipman

    RTH:

    Thanks for the link. Love the Fender. Love the song. I often wonder if it would be more fun living and selling real estate in a Greater Vancouver of 500,000 people and $20,000 houses, but I don’t wonder long. It would be paradise. I’d have a 3 acre lot where I live now, and catch plenty of salmon in the river across the street, the water coming out of the tap wouldn’t smell like chlorine, and two days of clear weather wouldn’t drop a brown blanket over the city. Who’s got a time machine?

    Craigy:

    Thanks for clearing that up. It makes me want to find Chip!

    -A-

    “The public display of charity such as the blanket drive is nothing more than a trite and empty gesture….”

    I’ll take that as a no. A righteous fellow like yourself certainly wouldn’t want to make a public display of charity. Wait, the blanket drive wasn’t public – we never publicised who gave what or how much we collected (its still going on, btw – got old clothes or blankets, give us a shout) and Kiva doesn’t have to be either.

    “…the plight which your industry creates by pushing the marginalized into substandard housing, or working class people into a 40yr mortgage sentence… If you do not change, your poor soul will smolder for eternity in the crucible…”

    I’m glad you’re alive today, and living here. I can only imagine what you’d get up to in theocratic police state. Can anyone say “NOBODY expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Apparently your church says I’ll burn not because I’m an infidel, or because I’m the wrong colour, but because, regardless of my individual actions, I’m associated with an “industry”! Youth really is wasted on the young 🙂

    I’m still confused – do you like the marginalized and the working class? Or are they the hookers, drug addicts, pimps and Bill Good listeners that you seem to despise?

    We’ll just leave the “sub-standard” housing thing to steam in the middle of the floor. Keep up the good work – your comedy is improving! 🙂

  18. blueskies

    hmm? possible “crack”

    full page ad in Van Sun
    condos for only $1120.00 per month
    no mention of full price or price range anywhere…..
    2.99% financing

    the “howmuchamonth” desperation marketing campaign begins…..

  19. BOBBYBEAR

    Is it true the the United States of America is willing to grant a short term visa for people who will:

    1. Buy a home and take out a new jumbo mortgage and not walk away;
    2. Open up new lines of credit;
    3. Agree to increase their limits on credit cards;
    4. Sign a contract that promises they will wipe out their savings account;

    America needs you. If you qualify you will also receive a check ( cheque ) for $700.00 U.S. sometime this year assuming they can actually get organized.

    No responsible people will be considered. Sorry.

  20. -A-

    “We’ll just leave the “sub-standard” housing thing to steam in the middle of the floor. Keep up the good work – your comedy is improving!”

    Shame on you Uncle Rob, Tqn was distraught over my comments to you, and Bean put together a decent rebuttal which took thought and effort, and you dismiss the whole thing as my irreverent comedy.

    BTW, I just love those cute little smiling faces you keep sticking on your posts, where did you get so many?They remind me of the little stars I used to get in school last year.

  21. Disbelief

    beans
    January 26, 2008 at 11:00 am

    -A-

    It seems silly that you can blame Rob or Realtors for this massive appreciation of housing prices experienced in recent years, or the fact that people are choosing to take on 35-40 year amortizations.

    40-year amortizations, 0% down, etc were of course introduced by the banking sector and the mortgage insurance companies, despite higher risk. They offered products under new risk parameters. Consumers did not have guns pointed at their heads to adopt these products. If they did, it should have been a rational choice, either they were willing to trade-off other spending and allocate more to housing. This is still an “efficient” choice on the part of the consumer. Additionally, they may find it optimal to get into the market. I have never met a Realtor that guaranteed a leveraged rate of return, but they have stated returns in recent years. This provides more information to help the buyers in making decisions, I have never had one tell me what to offer for a home.
    Of course Rob or realtors can’t be blamed for the crazy price appreciation or the 40 year terms or 0% down. But they have coined ” If you don’t buy now you may never get in…” or the ” they are not making anymore land so buy it now before we run out… ” These are scary sales tactics that have also contributed to the run up…. As well as the shills that Rennie et als pay to sit in line and buy or try to stimulate a red hot panic. These are not new but still something for Realtors to think about when they see the crying victims that have bought at the top…. It’s your conscience. Hope you can sleep well.

  22. Blueskies –

    yep that’s me, still lurk at Patrick.net, but since I started my own blog I have been posting more often closer to home.

    But I have to say Patrick is where it all started for me – actually hearing that contrarian point of view was very refreshing – back in 2004-2005 the media was spewing whatever David Lereah fed them.

    Wherefore art thou, Marina Prime? Coal Harbour?

  23. jesse

    M- : “Any recent mortgages with a short history were made during a big real estate boom– it’s next to impossible to lose money.”

    There is also another component of early refinances that can affect the return with certain debt instruments. That is, imagine if someone in a below prime mortgage finds a better rate he will close his current mortgage. As a result the security that finances this mortgage could pay the holder back the principal and there will be no further interest payments. It depends on the type of security so be careful. Be double super extra premium careful if a security rated AAA is returning 12%. And there were some securities like this around not just a year ago. They are now worth cents on the dollar.

    Check out http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/ Ubernerd posts for the ins and outs of MBS, SIV, CDO, etc. I haven’t seen much literature on how complicated the Canadian debt instruments are compared to the US ones. I think they are certainly more “innovative” than before.

  24. patenttranslations

    >>Wherefore art thou, Marina Prime? Coal Harbour?<<

    Actually, in this usage, “wherefore” means “why” not “where.” In the famous balcony scene, Juliet is complaining that he is who he is, and wishing that he were someone else, or at least called something else.

    And, speaking of Shakespeare, Bard on the Beach is really substandard, proving that Vancouver is not a world class city, and thus Vancouver RE will plunge 30% this summer — just to keep it on topic

  25. tqn

    could not wait for 30% plunge to buy more…oh man, this took forever!

    -A-,
    speaking of Karma, you must have been the most terrible landlord previously that … (fill in the blank)! Have a good weekend.

  26. blueskies

    proving that Vancouver is not a world class city, and thus Vancouver RE will plunge 30% this summer

    Alas poor Yorrick I knew him well.

  27. coco

    Seems Carol Taylor and others were way too optimistic on how much the BC economy would grow this year…… (link on yesterdays thread, if you have not read it already)

    Business Council of B.C. reported growth in the final quarter of 2007 was an anemic 0.3-per-cent — the second below-average quarter in a row and weakest six-month period for the economy in seven years.

    I wonder what will happen with jobs, housing, etc., if it turns negative.

  28. robchipman

    -A-

    Of course I “dismiss the whole thing as [your] irreverent comedy”. There’s no way you’re being serious. Is there? I mean, the logic is very sketchy, and I can’t believe you’re really saying I should fear for my soul and that I’m going to burn in Hell.

    If you are serious, and this isn’t your attempt at comedy, um, what are you doing tomorrow? Doorknocking? 🙂

  29. Oh my, where are you, Marina Prime? Coal Harbour?

    Is that better? The reference to Marina Prime is just pop culture trivia.

    Get it? “POP”.

    🙂

  30. -A-

    Rob said with disrespect:
    “If you are serious, and this isn’t your attempt at comedy, um, what are you doing tomorrow? Doorknocking?”

    I find organized religion too stifling for my predisposition to worshiping the rights and freedom of the individual, however the basic tenets of most religions is quite basic and intrinsically good, and therefore we should not ridicule and or denigrate religious groups.

    Tomorrow is Sunday, certain religious groups see it as their moral duty to “fish for souls” and with good intent, they go ,as you put it, “Doorknocking” .

    Perhaps you should respect that, and expunge that insensitive remark.

  31. blueskies

    however the basic tenets of most religions is quite basic and intrinsically good,

    not really, most organized religions exist to perpetuate their own existence….

    altruistic? i think not…..

  32. robchipman

    -A-

    “insensitive remark”?

    Pretty tame around here, no? Besides, chimp, pimp, gimp, aren’t you calling the kettle black!

    I like that “basic tenets are pretty basic” bit. And the complex aspects? They’re pretty complex! (You’re on fire -A-! Don’t stop!)

  33. -A-'s Mom

    -A-, (short for -A-ss) GET OFF MY COMPUTER AND GET BACK TO YOUR ROOM!!!
    Sorry for this Rob, ever since he turned 15 last year he has been un-BEAR-able. He is now grounded and I will try to keep him off my computer.
    also….I will be a little late for work on monday as little -A- needs to get his braces fixed. I will be in by noon to help Aarron finish up the King Albert deal.
    thanks again Rob
    -A-‘s Mom

  34. blueskies

    -A- your maternal “side” is somewhat appealing!

  35. BULL O' Bearpig

    Looks like sales are picking up earlier then forecast. Two houses on my street already showing a “SOLD” sign within a week.

  36. blueskies

    looked at a 2bd/2ba
    fixerupper in WestEnd :
    went $41K over ask
    in 4 or 5 days

    hmmm?

  37. Dave

    I have a bad feeling it is going to be similar to last year. Oh well…just keep waiying I guess.

  38. Dave

    “waiying” should be waiting

  39. A Looser

    Dave, sounds like you need a peptalk from Peter Simpson:

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/ytsp9n

    If he can do it, why can’t you?

  40. -A-

    Sure Rob, you can’t respond to the real issue, so back to your old standby diversion tactics.

  41. Snick

    “coco
    January 26, 2008 at 4:02 pm
    Seems Carol Taylor and others were way too optimistic on how much the BC economy would grow this year…… (link on yesterdays thread, if you have not read it already)

    Business Council of B.C. reported growth in the final quarter of 2007 was an anemic 0.3-per-cent — the second below-average quarter in a row and weakest six-month period for the economy in seven years.

    I wonder what will happen with jobs, housing, etc., if it turns negative.”

    Looks and smells like a recession to me. We usually track California, so it’s no surprise…

    This is going to get really ugly.

  42. Snick

    “BULL O’ Bearpig
    January 26, 2008 at 8:21 pm
    Looks like sales are picking up earlier then forecast. Two houses on my street already showing a “SOLD” sign within a week.”

    Yeah? Where? Bella Bella?

  43. Dave

    A looser………Dave, sounds like you need a peptalk from Peter Simpson:

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/ytsp9n

    If he can do it, why can’t you?

    A looser…….I am not a first time buyer. i am moving back to lowermainland from edmonton after nine years of exile. i have talked the wife into renting (if we can find the right place)
    I will have about 500K in cash and don’t want a mortgage. I seem to have bad luck with real estate.
    Bought in new west in 1995 for $229k and sold in spring 2001 for $187K. Nothing like buying at the top and selling at the bottom. If I do get frustrated with trying to find a decent rental and say f_ _k it, and buy. At least you will be able to call the top, just my luck.
    Dave

  44. Strataman

    snick “Yeah? Where? Bella Bella?” no the’re in East end Van, owners dumped them for what they paid two years ago. It has begun! 🙂

  45. Popeye

    Right on, strataman, the specu-vestors will get their fingers burned all the way up to their armpits.

  46. -A-

    Rob, here is a quote from one of the
    pumpers( oops, I meant your esteemed colleagues ),pumping the Olympic lie.

    “Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now and that will keep house prices rising, a trend expected only to intensify as we inch closer to the Olympics.” Bill Binnie, president of Royal LePage Northshore, North Vancouver said in a news release.”

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=41703b1f-5fcd-46a9-95c1-1fee74a0db94&k=54968

    Maybe Bill Binnie was misquoted.

  47. Popeye

    Without a doubt, a lot of speculators are going to lose a lot of money in the RE School of Hard Knocks as I like to call it, but that only means you’re down, but not out, and I have “been-there, done-that” myself. A man isn’t dead until his ass is cold.
    The best thing for a speculator now is to get out as quick as he can, and the prospective buyer ought to stand back and wait until this nonsense unravels and then step in.

  48. Dave

    -A-………does your mom know you are out of your room….LOL

  49. -A-

    Dave, she doesn’t know I post with my BlackBerry.
    She thinks it’s a tape player.

  50. robchipman

    -A-

    Sorry, I forgot. What is the real issue? Right, the morally bankrupt practice of predicting price increases when anyone with sound values knows that real estate only goes down in value. Again, my apologies.

    Regarding Mr. Binnie (who in my experience is a very worthy individual, and one who actually puts his name to his statements), let’s face it: Royal LePage called for a nationwide price increase of low single digits in 2008 sometime ago – no news there. For Vancouver they’ve also cited the Olympics as a price driver. Again, that’s nothing new.

    Here’s one question: can you, one the one hand, say that the market is subject to psychology (i.e., it will crash in a minute once the psychology turns), or has been fuelled by psychology (idiots drinking the kool-aid are firing price gains) but then dismiss the impact of the Olympics because its a 2 week TV event? Isn’t it fair to say that the psychology of the Olympics could have a positive impact on prices? In that case, can you really say Binnie’s opinion of what might happen is false? Is it fair to call it a “lie”, call him a pumper and dumper, and then whine about insensitive remarks? (Sorry, I forgot again. The insensitive remark thing is one of your standard humour tactics. Day job, right? Can’t all be gems? Gotcha!)

    Here’s another question: Mr. Binnie says ” Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now …”

    True or false? I mean, as we speak, ignoring the future for the moment, we are in demand, right? He’s being truthful. (I’m confident that in your world the truth is not a defense to the charge of heresy, but for the rest of us…).

    Prices are generally expected to keep rising through 2008, aren’t they? Am I wrong about that? Have the bears become the majority suddenly? Aside from Shiller’s famous quote about Vancouver being the bubbliest, how many forecasts of falling Vancouver prices can you find vs. forecasts of rising prices? Again, I think its fair to say that the consensus is that prices will continue to rise in ’08. (Not your opinion, I know, or the opinion of many other readers, but a common, and I’d argue majority one, nonetheless). Binnie’s not going out on much of a limb there. He’s expressing a pretty common opinion.

    Will the trend intensify as we edge to the Olympics? Finally I think you have something that you can question. Will the price gains intensify or slow? I think the largest number of observers think they’ll slow. You might be able to craft an actual logical argument there. Wait! I forgot again! Crafting a logical argument isn’t your particular forte. I apologize. Its really not fair to ask you to attempt something you couldn’t possibly accomplish. Bad for your self-esteem. Makes you go quiet while you furrow your brow.

    Strataman:

    Serious note – Nov ’06 East Van median -$528,000
    Nov ’07? $668,000. Thats a 24% drop. Have there actually been any 24% below market sales around here recently? And when and if we see that kind of drop, will that be only the beginning?

    Sales are a little slower these days, and we can’t push on price as much as we have in the past, no question. But, when sellers price close to market buyers are proving to be tenacious in not letting deals go.

  51. Popeye

    · -A-, “Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now and that will keep house prices rising, a trend expected only to intensify as we inch closer to the Olympics” says Royal LePage.
    · Here is something to consider as we “inch closer to the Olympics”
    When the Olympics are here it is said that the whole world will be watching. Actually, only half the world will be watching. The other half will be sleeping. When it’s 12 noon in Vancouver it’s 11 pm in Moscow. Europe isn’t any better off, getting ready for bed at around 10 pm. In China, the world’s most populous country, it is the wee hour of 4 am. And southern hemisphere countries usually have little interest in winter sports because they really don’t have winters like we do, and therefore can’t relate.
    In Torino in 2006 they couldn’t sell their tickets and actually gave them away, trying to fill empty seats in their venues. Three hundred million Europeans were within one day’s treck of Terino but few bothered to show up. And every year there are more television channels on the tube to watch which just narrows the chances of viewing Olympic games. These facts went over the heads of our stupid politicians but will gladly hand us the bill come due in 2011.

  52. -A-

    Rob:
    “Regarding Mr. Binnie (who in my experience is a very worthy individual, and one who actually puts his name to his statements),”

    Rob,”worthy” within the above context is a subjective description, could you elaborate?

    Is he some kind of objective analyst? Does he have some commercial interest in perpetuating what I subjectively call a lie?

  53. -A-

    Popeye, agreed. Also, I wonder if the Kool-Aid drinkers know the difference between Torino and Squamish.

  54. s.p.

    regarding the olympics (popeye)
    heres what bothers me:
    “The RCMP, the Vancouver police department and the Department of National Defence are among those dealing with security issues at the 2010 Winter Olympics.
    Their budget is $175 million.
    But in Salt Lake City in 2002, the first Games held after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist bombings in New York and Washington, $310 million US was budgeted.
    In Turin in 2006, the budget was $1.4 billion US.”
    reference: http://tinyurl.com/38fklg

    turin…1.4 billion – vancouver 175 million… i dont get it. i suspect we are spending less because:
    1. our security forces are so much better than anything in europe – so we need less.
    2. the canadian dollar is worth waaay more than the euro – so we get better value.
    3. its harder for bad people to get to canada – and its cold so it keeps them away.
    4. bad people are scared by the mountains, oceans, and cost of living.

    sarcasm aside – i think popeye is right – we will be holding a bag of some kind at the end of it all.

    something to think about – if we are spending 70% of our incomes on housing – hydro rates, icbc rates, and the cost of gas is going up….how much does that leave us to pay for the waste that is the olympics?

    spark

  55. -A-

    Spark, you aren’t suggesting that our impeccable and moral community leaders,( who would never suck on the public bosom, of the best place on earth), would deliberately underestimate the costs associated with the Olympics and overstate the benefits?

    Why that would be scandalous.

  56. Strataman

    Rob; “Thats a 24% drop. Have there actually been any 24% below market sales around here recently? ” My point Rob, was saying two houses sold in a few days doesn’t really mean much unless were given the asking price, sell price and how long they were really listed. By the way I am tracking a couple of expensive cond units that are relisted within weeks of an expiry, that is happening and I have spotted two in the one building I am interested in. On another note I would imagine a savy investor would sell at the percieved top of a market, so we could see a lot of sales just prior to a downturn. What would be interesting is how many sales are happening to places bought in the last two years, and how much their median price is increasing or decreasing. A lot of the investors I run into bought five years ago, and as such I consider them a differant class of investor, most are cash flow positive on rent or if not very close to it. The ones that bought in the last two years aren’t even close. I am sure you will agree there is both smart money and stupid money, how would you professionally detect the differance? I am sure you can! 🙂

  57. vomitingdog

    Heya RE obsessives. Nice to see you blogging on a Sunday…

    Went to a False Creek North open house yesterday and ran the idea of market timing by the agent. Do you know what he told me? I paid careful attention to each word. I’ll put it in quotes for you:

    “I’ve been doing a lot of reading on the real estate market lately and real estate is going to go up by 18% this year.”

    Is going to. Not might or predicted to. That’s eighteen. Not eight. I guess I’m not clear. Are agents allowed to say things like that?

  58. blueskies

    Are agents allowed to say things like that?

    of course they are….. this is a legitimate sales tactic
    create a buzz, lay out a win win scenario and watch the sheeple pile in.

    the agent may even believe this himself and has already invested based on this belief….
    future RE roadkill….keep your powder dry!

  59. -A-

    “of course they are….. this is a legitimate sales tactic
    create a buzz, lay out a win win scenario and watch the sheeple pile in.”

    Blueskies: I ‘m having trouble with that one. Do you realize that Realtors are members of the Real Estate Board?

    In case you didn’t know the real estate board’s guiding principles are so stringent they probably surpass those of the College of Physicians, after all, Realtors are professionals requiring credentials not easily obtainable.

    As far as I know, the only field of study requiring more stringent prerequisite is Ozzie’s advanced curriculum.

  60. blueskies

    -A-
    based on personal experience with RE types since 1981, they will say or do practically anything to sell something.

    which is why i count my fingers after shaking hands….just in case

  61. -A-

    Blueskies: You shake their hands? How could you?

  62. Disbelief

    I just came back from open house at the Barclay and they have plenty of suites available. The agents outnumbered the lookers by 3 to 1…. Prices aren’t too bad either… choose your colours and after 4 weeks still have only 38% sold… Location is good, suites are very nicely done… Can you say softening market….

  63. Anonymous

    v-dog, why don’t you have a friend say to the realtor that s/he’s looking for an agent to list with and find out what the realtor’s prognosis is then? 🙂

  64. vomitingdog

    Are you kidding, anonymous? I practically couldn’t get out of there from all the pitching… he could represent us, call me with anything, I’ll put you on my mailing list… yikes!

  65. coco

    I lived in Calgary for years….the Olympics did NOT raise real estate prices, nor was there an influx of foreign buyers. A lot of people who rented near the Olympic venue sites did get evicted so the landlords could collect very high rents from the visitors while the Olympics were on.

    When I hear how people think everyone is going to buy real estate here when they see the Olympics it reminds me of the real estate gossip that went on in Calgary before the Olympics too.

  66. blueskies

    disbelief:
    Prices aren’t too bad either…

    check BC Assessments $70K-$100K over assessment…
    no warranty of any sort
    they will let you look at the engineers reports
    dark places with small windows

    caveat emptor!

  67. coco

    Blueskies,

    Remember 2008 assessments are up quite a bit over 2007 levels also.

  68. coco

    One in five Realtors in the United States has sold a home to a foreign investor in the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

  69. coco

    National Association of Realtors has 1.3 million members.

  70. BOBBYBEAR

    We are not in hard times…yet. Give it time. The problem is that our governments are gradually wiping out the middle class.

  71. coco

    Can a buyer afford to keep the lights on…….

    BC Hydro bills could jump 25 per cent over 3 years

    http://tinyurl.com/2aek23

    Other moves could push electricity costs up even higher. For example, the commission has ordered Hydro to develop a scheme to encourage customers to reduce electricity use.

    Customers would have to pay double or even triple the standard rate if their electricity use goes above a certain amount.

  72. Anonymous

    Future doesn’t look to bright….increasing electricity bills , increasing natural gas bills, possible carbon tax, increasing icbc rates, increasing property taxes, etc.

    I could just hear the conversations….look how much the home prices increased….people can afford to pay more….

  73. ObserverX

    v-dog, I might not have made my comment clear … I was suggesting that maybe the realtor will say something different than “up 18% this coming year” to someone who give the agent a listing!!!

  74. Newcomer

    — … I was suggesting that maybe the realtor will say something different than “up 18% this coming year” to someone who give the agent a listing!!!

    Well, yes. All the “RE agents are evil” stuff always focuses on how they talk up the market, but they could equally well move product by talking down the market. If they could convince the people who list with them that the market is going to crash and so the listers should ask 10% less than their neighbors, they would make a lot of sales and take in a lot of commission. Why aren’t they doing that? My guess is that, for the most part, they don’t believe it.

  75. Snick

    I hope all of you were able to see Steve Kroft’s revealing portrait of the foreclosure mess in California on 60 Minutes this evening…

    I am still laughing at what Michael Campbell (the premier’s brother) had to say to Deborah Hope on Global TV News last week.

    With gums a flappin’, and with a straight face, he argued that the “affordabi;ty issue” in Vancouver would likely be addressed by “building smaller places to live in. Less square footage…”

    Not ONCE, did that idiot suggest that prices would decline to match local incomes.

    Would YOU have your hard-earned money managed by a so-called “economic advisor” like him?

  76. Anonymous

    “I hope all of you were able to see Steve Kroft’s revealing portrait of the foreclosure mess in California on 60 Minutes this evening…”

    Yes, saw that! Man, it’s scary in California.

    But we’re told that Vancouver is different….world class, Olympics, rich foreignors want to invest here, etc.

  77. What, are there no rich foreigners in California?

  78. domus

    “With gums a flappin’, and with a straight face, he argued that the “affordabi;ty issue” in Vancouver would likely be addressed by “building smaller places to live in. Less square footage…”

    How?? How small? Non existent, more like it?
    I have seen larger boxes in NY and London when I lived there.

    These places downtown are crap: no ceiling, no toilet space, no kitchen. Never seen anything like this on the East coast or Europe…..who taught them to build these boxes?

  79. $FA

    Can I have some crack please. No more wishfull thinking.

  80. Agreed for our culture, smaller places don’t seem probable, although we’ll see. But Domus, in Europe … way, way smaller places are accepted. I have lived in them. Paris studios can easily be in the 200-300 square foot range, this is not our of the ordinary. My friend even bought a place that is 18 square metres.

  81. BOBBYBEAR

    you dont think there is a spin? look almost everybody who is trying to make a buck is a spin…take everybody with a large grain of salt…especially salespeople.

  82. BOBBYBEAR

    a middle class 25 year old professional working downtown in 25 years will have 225 sq feet in a concrete building..2nd floor for about 2 million…its called extrapolation

  83. BOBBYBEAR

    u see…..GNP is GOD…..get down on your knees and pray to GNP. Your life will evolve around these 3 letters….GNP.
    Before it was the God of rain or thunder. Now it is GNP. You will now devote most of your life to GNP…increase your production or your FIRED.

  84. BOBBYBEAR

    Corruption is the name of the game….if u work hard for a living …you are a sucker…..get into dealing drugs..make big money..cops are dumb…justice system takes 10 years

  85. BOBBYBEAR

    or become a real estate saleman

  86. coco

    Ken Wyder, successful west side realtor, is a renter.

    “Even if I had a big wad of cash in the bank right now, I don’t think I’d buy today. I think now the pressure on prices we’re seeing is not fundamentally sound.”

    To be clear, few observers, Wyder included, are predicting a crash anytime soon in Vancouver, or even a drop in prices.

  87. coco

    From the secondary government we all love to hate….

    Translink spending plan the highest ever

    http://tinyurl.com/2n27rm

  88. Snick

    “To be clear, few observers, Wyder included, are predicting a crash anytime soon in Vancouver, or even a drop in prices.”

    Is he a macro-economist or a realtor?

  89. coco

    Snick,

    Here is his website, sells properties in Point Grey, Kitsilano and UBC areas. Has been a realtor for 10 years.

    http://tinyurl.com/yszpfs

  90. coco

    For those of you who missed 60 minutes, here is the video link….

    House Of Cards

    Steve Kroft reports on how the U.S. sub-prime mortgage meltdown, in which risky loans drove a housing boom that went bust, is now roiling capital markets worldwide.

    http://tinyurl.com/2oqdzw

  91. coco

    Click on each state to see foreclosed homes, even our neighbour to the south is not immuned

    http://tinyurl.com/yu9lbb

  92. View

    So with one eye on soaring prices here, and the other on the troubles south of the border, you can’t really blame Canadians for feeling like they’re living on the edge of a cliff.

    http://news.sympatico.msn.ca/Is+it+a+bubble+Is+it+about+to+burst/Home/ContentPosting_Macleans.aspx?isfa=1&newsitemid=20071219_66460_66460&feedname=ROGERS-BUSINESS&show=False&number=0&showbyline=True&subtitle=&detect=&abc=abc&date=False

  93. Newcomer

    The Sun tells us:
    The polls says 17 per cent now believe the Canadian economy will “slip into a recession” in 2008. Two-thirds (65 per cent) say they believe the economy “will slow but continue to have some growth.” Only 15 per cent said they think the economy will “continue to grow as strongly as it has in recent years,” down nine points from the last survey.
    http://tinyurl.com/36qnaf

    When I compare the optimism of the guy on the street with what you read in the financial paper, such as the following, it is easy to understand how prices got so high and why they are not yet coming down.

    “This is the first time in 25 years that the IMF managing director has called for an increase in fiscal deficits and I regard this as a recognition of the gravity of the situation that we face,”
    http://tinyurl.com/yt29km

  94. coco

    U.S. writers’ strike threatens Canadian industry

    http://tinyurl.com/2ezxls

    “A lot of people are taking courses, thinking about changing careers and worried about making house payments”

  95. robchipman

    Strataman:

    “My point Rob, was saying two houses sold in a few days doesn’t really mean much unless were given the asking price, sell price and how long they were really listed.”

    Got you, and you’re correct. Details make all the dif.

    “On another note I would imagine a savy investor would sell at the percieved top of a market, so we could see a lot of sales just prior to a downturn.”

    That assumes that they could call the top. I remain dubious. More likely someone will get lucky and sell, then the market will turn, and it will be interpreted as calling the market top correctly.

    I’m not going to quote the rest of your post, but I think you make some very interesting points. What’s a late entrant? I tend to agree – two years or less.

    Popeye:

    I’m not saying the Olympics themselves will actually push prices up. All I’m saying is that if you attribute a lot of weight to psychology, and pencil in purchasers as stupid kool-aid drinkers, there’s a bit of a logical disconnect when you turn around and say “Anyone who says a glitzy event will influence the psychology of stupid kool-aid drinkers must be a liar!” Its the kind of logic that -A- excels at (“I haven’t seen or read it, and I don’t know much about, but that on’t stop me from explaining it all to you!”)

  96. Priced Out

    coco,

    That article about the TV/Film industry is scary. It appears BC is in danger of losing most of it more-or-less permanently. Once its gone, its gone for good. That is so sad for Vancouver. Without much high-tech, almost no head offices, and lacking any significant culture, the disappearance of Film/TV will relegate Vancouver back to the status of frontier, resource town (but without the resource jobs it once had).

  97. vomitingdog

    Of interest: Impacted US markets have been categorized by Countrywide with Category 5 being the highest risk for declining market value and Category 1 markets currently demonstrating more stable market values.

    Seattle still holding up. Portland/SF faring a bit worse. Thoughts?

    http://tinyurl.com/yue4ao

  98. coco

    vomitingdog,

    There is still foreclosures in Seattle, just not as bad as other states. Did you click on my link above to see the number of foreclosures by various states and cities? I was surprised to see how many homes were in foreclosure and preforeclosure when I checked Seattle and the surrounding areas too.

  99. coco

    Priced Out,

    I caught the end of a blip on TV awhile ago, that if the writers strike doesn’t get settled and with the current state of our forestry industry, BC could shed 50,000 jobs in the next few months.

  100. coco

    Forget about the lost furnishings and finances, the most pitiful victims of the subprime mortgage crisis rocking the United States are the family pets.
    Shelters across the country have seen sharp upticks in the number of people giving up their pets in recent months because they have been forced out of their homes.

    http://tinyurl.com/yrujbr

  101. coco

    The Seattle market is softer, I know a person who has been trying to sell their house for 5 months now.

  102. domus

    Macchiato,

    I am sure that if you look at the smallest possible studios, citties like London and New York are quite unbeatable. In some areas you can find people living in former cleaning cupboards (this is not a jole….).

    What I am referring to is the fact that in Vancouver there is a lack of livable condo units, having more than 2 bedrooms. Even the two bedrooms usually have no kitchen, but a unique room which is both kitchen and living room.

    Not trying to be funny, but even the toilet bowls are smurf-sized: are they saving space on that as well?

    The bottom line is that condo living is associated to the idea of having no open air access, small claustrophobic rooms and as many units as possible in a given block.

    It is not so on the East coast and, even more, in Europe.

  103. coco

    U.S. New Home Sales Experience 27-Year Record Low

    http://tinyurl.com/3c5ox7

  104. coco

    McDonald’s hit by weak US sales

    McDonald’s has warned about weaker US consumer spending. Restaurant giant McDonald’s has seen its latest quarterly profits increase just 3%, as sluggish US sales trailed behind those in its overseas markets.

    (That is pretty bad when the U.S. consumer is cutting back on McDonald’s, Wow!)

  105. coco

    McDonald’s hit by weak US sales

    McDonald’s has warned about weaker US consumer spending. Restaurant giant McDonald’s has seen its latest quarterly profits increase just 3%, as sluggish US sales trailed behind those in its overseas markets.

    (That is pretty bad when the U.S. consumer is cutting back on eating out at McDonald’s, Wow!)

  106. Newcomer

    >>Not trying to be funny, but even the toilet bowls are smurf-sized: are they saving space on that as well?<<

    In Japan they use a system in which the sink is set into the top of the toilet tank. Not only does this save space, but the hand washing water is automatically recycled to fill the tank.

  107. coco

    The United Kingdom is expected to confront its weakest growth period in over 15 years

    http://tinyurl.com/39j82a

  108. domus

    “In Japan they use a system in which the sink is set into the top of the toilet tank. Not only does this save space, but the hand washing water is automatically recycled to fill the tank.”

    ….you live and learn.

  109. vomitingdog

    Thanks Coco.

    At first there didn’t seem to be many in Seattle proper but then I specified the postal code 98101 (and 25 miles around) which is downtown Seattle, more or less 1st and Pike and surroundings.

    Now I get 608 listings. I will take a closer look.

  110. Cool Guy

    RE:
    “coco: U.S. New Home Sales Experience 27-Year Record Low”

    This year is the best time to buy in the US.
    remember buy low and sell high.

    Has anyone done this?
    Can a Canadian buy property in the US?

  111. vomitingdog

    Just took a closer look at 98101, 98102, real core Seattle listings and there’s only 2 per postal code all on crappy streets. My theory is that the core valuable properties are just not that affected yet in Seattle or San Francisco, cities we often compare Vancouver to.

    San Francisco is 18 months off peak and if you check into sites like socketsite.com, great locations are holding their prices. Seattle’s prime areas have flattening sales but no meaningful dips in price yet.

    I’m not meaning to doubt the bears, I am just looking for trends in these specific areas. Perhaps this year, we will see meaningful declines in these areas but is that a lesson for VanW and EVan? That it takes at least 18 months for prices to start unwinding. I need to know because I wish to time the market.

    If you have evidence to the contrary, I’m all ears.

  112. Newcomer

    “This year is the best time to buy in the US.
    remember buy low and sell high.”

    What makes you think this is low? Historically, this is still high. The US is a long way from its bottom.

  113. domus

    “Perhaps this year, we will see meaningful declines in these areas but is that a lesson for VanW and EVan? That it takes at least 18 months for prices to start unwinding. I need to know because I wish to time the market.”

    Timing the market is a feat of luck, rather than ability. You can try at your own risk.

    Vancouver, in my opinion, is still far from its substantial adjustment downwards. The next year and a half will be the best time to leave the market for those who made money.
    For a buyer, anything from mid 2005 onwards will be real losses in 3 years’ time.

    It is a long process. If you want bargains, you will have to wait.

  114. Snick

    Well, what with an “Olsen On Your Side” presentation on CTV NEWS in approx. ONE minute from now, things could change faster than that. (He is launching a 5 – part series on the Vancouver RE bubble)

    Tune in.

  115. -A-

    Rob, is a chicken. See above response to my prior posts.

    also:
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22840771/

    Home buyer who overpaid sues real estate agent
    With housing boom going bust, will more purchasers follow suit?

    I think so; it will start like flurries and eventually become a storm, and the avalanche, will follow.

  116. jesse

    “Seattle’s prime areas have flattening sales but no meaningful dips in price yet.”

    Affluent areas will almost always lag the blue collar ones on the way down. As far as Seattle is concerned I think the mould has been set; hubris is the last refuge of the damned.

  117. $fromA$iatoyourpocket

    Wishfull thinkers, I too sold but we need CRACK!

  118. domus

    $fromA$ia,

    the biggest crack is when the last bear capitulates and admits there is no hope of lower prices…..

    By the way, London England is down for a 4th month in a row. Mortgages are down 1/3 from a year earlier. People are panicking, many are selling.

    First time buyers who got in in the last 10 months are already in negative equity. (Check the Guardian, Times, Telegraph…..)

  119. WoW

    Snick – what did Olson have to say?

    What of today’s numbers?

  120. WoW

    .K. Housing Market Won’t Pick Up This Year
    Such gains have now come to an end. U.K. home prices fell for a third month in January, according to Rightmove Plc, Britain’s most-used property Web site. The average asking price for U.K. homes dropped 0.8 percent to 230,428 pounds in January from the previous month, Rightmove said last week. In December, there was a 3.2 percent decline.

    Mortgage approvals dropped to the lowest in at least a decade in December as banks curbed their lending and higher interest rates deterred buyers.

  121. the biggest crack is when the last bear capitulates and admits there is no hope

    I will never surrender, but I have to admit, for me, hope is fleeting.

    Welcome to the yawning chasm.

  122. Snick

    WoW,

    Olsen said that things are somewhat, shall we say, “dicey”. A talking head was put on (a prof from UBC) who stated that we are, in a sense, in uncharted waters.

    He thinks the condo market is going to tumble, and a lot of people who have condo “investments” may rush to the exits at the same time.

    Aren’t condos “one leg of the three-legged stool”?

    Given the US news and the affordability “issue” that Olsen also mentioned, I’d say he is offering this info because NOW he won’t be looked on as a kook.

    However, he is behind the curve, IMO. MSM people like him only report stories like this after the fact.

  123. WoW

    Snick – ARE YOU THEN SAYING that prices are FALLING “N”O”W”?????

    Please clarify. Do you think prices are falling right NOW?

  124. M-

    Snick: Olsen’s not behind the curve– on Feb 16, 2007, Olsen had an article which was very bearish on our RE bubble. VHB put up a post about it entitled “Olsen on Our Side”.

  125. WoW

    M/Snick – do you think we will see MoM price declines for January?

    Is there a noticeable change in media focus? How about the ‘mood on the street’? Anyone noticing anything? Or another year of plus 20% increases in the works?

  126. Snick

    “Or another year of plus 20% increases in the works?”

    Don’t be daft.

  127. Whybuywhenucanrent

    >>I need to know because I wish to time the market.<<

    It’s hard to predict when markets will turn.

    It’s a bit easier to predict whether markets are likely to turn soon, or what the long-term prospects are.

    Right now, markets could easily gain another 20% this year. Or they could plateau. Or they could slide.

    What’s easy to predict, though, is that Vancouver B.C. will be in a World of Hurt in 2011.

    Now is a very good time to rent, and a very good time to sell. Will this spring be a better time to sell? Maybe. Will spring 2011 be a better time to sell? Very unlikely.

    If you’re buying, keep your $ stashed in a somewhere sensible, relatively insulated from inflation or recession. Take a long vacation from this blog and all your worries until the “talk of the town” is the number of foreclosures, whether jingle mail is legal or ethical, and the Sun starts running front page stories about the plight of those who invested at the peak. You’ll *know* when it’s safe to buy again.

    If you’re selling, precise timing is probably not as important as execution. Have a Realtor that is experienced in your particular type of property, is fairly market-savvy, and is good with clients. Get your property pimped up to sell. Don’t get the jitters.

    Position yourself for a peak, and sit back and enjoy the ride. Plenty of folks on this blog sold 2 yrs ago, it seems, they may regret it now, but better safe than sorry. If they were as smart as they think they are, they have their assets invested in something that will outperform RE in the 2006 – 2011 frame.

    Again,
    Whybuywhenucanrent?

  128. robchipman

    WBWYCR:

    When the market changes the tenor of this blog will change. A lot of the current bears will move on to the next conspiracy de jour. But, both your handle and a common perspective on today’s market point to why serious investors should keep paying attention.

    Why buy when you can rent? Simple question, simple answer: you should buy when costs of buying (all of them) are less than the costs of renting. It follows that sometimes you should rent your primary residence while buying investment property (ever notice that the renters proudest of their deals are in expensive Westside properties?) When it pays to own a rental apartment in Maple Ridge, you should buy, even if you continue renting on the Westside.

    Also, in their eagerness to witness their predictions, many people confuse the current market for a down market. They tend to overlook the obvious. Actualy witnessing a down market, and seeing what happens in one, will be very educational to serious investors who ahven’t yet seen one.

  129. $fromA$iatoyourpocket

    Rob siad, “Actualy witnessing a down market, and seeing what happens in one, will be very educational to serious investors who ahven’t yet seen one.”

    Thanks Rob.

    Thats most of the current pop with all or nothing mortgages.

  130. Mightymouse

    Mo,
    It will be interesting to see this chart updated in a few months.

    or… (the thread the chart came from):

    http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/search?q=chipman+area

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