Tuesday Numbers and a King Albert Update

Yesterday I asked “When will [the listing surge] start breaking….?”  Maybe it happened today.  (Or maybe not…:-) )

There were 185 listings today, and 103 sales, for a vastly improved sell/list of 55.67%.  (When’s the last time a 55% sell/list was a vast improvement?!)

Inventory planed out at 8,200, while over 90s hit 2,368, or 28.88%.

King Albert is off the market.  I originally posted this listing as a Coquitlam house witha hot price. We intentionally priced it very sharp, in an effort to generate the maximum amount of activity and top dollar for our seller. We received multiple offers with $33,000 range between low and high. Inspection revealed some hidden damage to the house that scared some potential buyers. Once we learned about the problem we had to take action. When a buyer gets an inspection and elects to drop his offer the seller doesn’t always get to see the inspection, so isn’t always sure what to disclose; yet, if the seller doesn’t discose a defect of which they are arguably aware, they could be committing a tort. We had to have some tradesmen perform inspections, and have the seller re-do the property disclosure statement in order to acheive full disclosure(and we did exactly that).

Buers and the seller still disagreed on price, but I’m happy to say that we have finally sold the house after a great deal of work. Real estate board interpretations of privacy legislation forbids me reporting the actual sale price, but it sold for a very good price. Anyone who wants to know the actual price can contact any Realtor on a one to one basis and find it out (“any Realtor” being the operative term).

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66 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers, For sale

66 responses to “Tuesday Numbers and a King Albert Update

  1. blueskies

    here’s why it sold!

    http://tinyurl.com/yvq4lg

    rapid transit is coming!
    get in early!

  2. robchipman

    Blueskies:

    It sold ’cause we’re good. And didn’t you say 90 days, and then 180 more? 🙂

  3. mike@gmail.com

    Rob, can you comment on the strategy of doing a building inspection, revealing that to the seller (thereby forcing them to put that in the disclosure statements) and then grinding them further on price?

  4. blueskies

    And didn’t you say 90 days, and then 180 more? 🙂

    that I did, and I’ve been wrong before… many times.

    oughta keep track of this
    “King Albert Bagholder”

  5. Strataman

    Rob; Does that mean there was 33 expiries or cancelations? Monday 8151 + 82 (differance between sales and listings) = 8233-8200 = 33?

  6. bearish

    just wondering Rob,
    are you seeing a resurgance of the self directed RSP mortgages? (where ultimatly you become your own lender. given recent GIC rates of return, they have to be making more sense these days. and in your experience are people using these as investment loans or for their principal residence.
    ps thanx for the #;s

  7. $fromA$ia (everybody's a RE tycoon)

    “King Albert Bagholder”???

    I use nice underwear that actually supports my bag. Rob, what kind of bag holder do you use?

  8. AmPa

    Are the journalists who wrote that translink article from Toronto?

    It’s idiotic that they refer to the Evergreenline as a “Skytrain expansion into Coquitlam”

    First of all, it’s not Skytrain. It will be ground-level, quite slower, and non-rail based.

    Secondly, for most of its length, it passes through Port Moody, although it does end in Coquitlam.

  9. Snick

    I pity the sucker that bought that dump. (Drove by it the other day to have a look-see.)

    I guess they became convinced by “the case for fundamentals” you wrote some time ago.

  10. Priced Out

    “Secondly, for most of its length, it passes through Port Moody, although it does end in Coquitlam.”

    Yeah, the King Albert house is apparently not in an area near the proposed rapid transit, and I can’t see its price being affected.

  11. blueskies

    King Albert house is apparently not in an area near the proposed rapid transit, and I can’t see its price being affected.

    exactly! but what did the realtor say?

    which reminds me of the term “city views” 🙂

  12. Whybuywhenucanrent

    >>Real estate board interpretations of privacy legislation forbids me reporting the actual sale price, but it sold for a very good price.<<

    Congrats, Rob, on getting it sold.

    Someone want to stop by Coquitlam City Hall? Pull the closing price up on their computers and post it here for all of us to see!

    Again,
    Whybuywhenucanrent

  13. WoW

    thx for the #s and congrats on the sale, good timing, its a sellers market.

  14. WoW

    Rob, the Calgary and Edmonton markets are still HOT. I mean, great year over year price increases. HOT HOT HOT. Oh yeah, off 12% or so from their peak (in the stock market, we would call this a ‘correction’), but still up for the year, so HOT HOT HOT. Now, the folks that bought 6 months ago, should they be excited about the price declines? Guess it does not matter, as YoY is up up up, and that’s what she’s all about, booya!

    Anyways, perhaps my frustration with being a bear is showing, perhaps I should just capitulate and drink the coolaid…

  15. Priced Out

    What’s wrong with the people on BBC World? Bunch of gloom and doomers.

  16. Dave

    “When a buyer gets an inspection and elects to drop his offer the seller doesn’t always get to see the inspection.”

    Rob…would the buyer, not have to disclose to the seller what problem was found during the inspection to be able to use the “subject to inspection” to back out of the deal.
    thanks…Dave

  17. blueskies

    well isn’t this interesting!

    http://tinyurl.com/38cvcy

    when is a rate cut not a rate cut?

    Some of Canada’s big banks are contemplating holding their prime rates steady in the face of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada

  18. vomitingdog

    Hi Bears,

    Can you all do me a favour? Can you go to prompton.com and check out their for sale listings. They have TWO HUNDRED pages of condos for sale, at around 5 listings per page. I believe that makes for 1,000 downtown condos for sale.

    Isn’t that a lot?

  19. vomitingdog

    Sorry. My mistake. 200 condos for sale, not 1,000. But it still seems like a lot. And they definitely don’t have all the unoccupied units at Spectrum 1, 2 & 3 up either. So maybe it is closer to 1,000 as I originally thought.

  20. blueskies

    vd:

    just wait til Elan comes on board..partayyyy!

  21. vomitingdog

    Where and what is Elan?

  22. Dmello

    Last year we averaged about 700 MLS condo listings downtown… 200 is quite low.

    I’m not expecting much from Elan. The assignment cutoff was December 13th. Flippers would have wanted to sell heir units before then to avoid paying the GST.

  23. blueskies

    Elan is a large development in the 1200 block Seymour by Cressy due to complete in Feb/Mar
    approx 50% speculator incl friends and family of developers and marketers….

    should be interesting to watch…..

  24. Dmello

    Last year we averaged about 700 MLS condo listings downtown… 200 is quite low.

    I’m not expecting much from Elan. The assignment cutoff was December 13th. Flippers would have wanted to sell heir units before then to avoid paying the GST.

  25. jojuchst

    Quote: Once we learned about the problem we had to take action. When a buyer gets an inspection and elects to drop his offer the seller doesn’t always get to see the inspection, so isn’t always sure what to disclose; yet, if the seller doesn’t discose a defect of which they are arguably aware, they could be committing a tort.

    Does the seller perform this for every dropped offer? Is this normal procedure? or just a jesture to comply with “disclosure”?

    If a second offer is dropped how can you tell whether it’s for the same deficiency?

  26. “would the buyer, not have to disclose to the seller what problem was found during the inspection to be able to use the “subject to inspection” to back out of the deal.”

    The first multiple offer winner (buyer) didn’t even bother calling me back. Their offer died.

    The second multiple offer winner (buyer) came back and wanted a large discount, and didn’t want to share the reason. After some negotiation the buyer came back with his inspectors report. The two sides could not come to an agreement so we had to continue to market the property.

    We independently confirmed that the buyer’s inspection was accurate, and then had the seller sign a new property disclosure statement.

    After two low ball offers were rejected (bringing our offer total to 9) we found a buyer ready, willing & able to buy King Albert.

    To answer your question; Yes the buyer should have solid evidence as to why he/she is backing out of the deal. The problem for the seller is, if the buyer just doesn’t call you back to remove subjects or doesn’t have a valid reason. You can sue, but not many people want to go to the trouble and expense of a court hearing.

  27. vomitingdog

    I am just waiting for that to happen here Noname so I can jump ship.

  28. blueskies

    more good news!

    http://tinyurl.com/27delq

    Economic growth in Canada is unlikely to average more than 2.2 per cent a year for the next two years, partly because of the U.S. subprime crisis, the Bank of Nova Scotia predicted on Tuesday.

  29. Fozziebear

    “Sorry. My mistake. 200 condos for sale, not 1,000.”

    I checked out the site. There are a lot more; the search engine will only give you 200 at a time. If you spend some you can figure out the total number by narrowing your price range and doing multiple searches. I get 559 units under $1.5 mil.

  30. Al

    Why do you, guys, expect a lot of Elan’s listing ?
    This developemnt has only 229 units and during last couple years, many units were already flipped as assignments. (Cressey allowed listing assignments on MLS wich helped).
    Elan is a high quality building with affordable pricing and the market will absorb very quickly its units.

  31. Anonymous

    Al wrote:

    Elan is a high quality building with affordable pricing and the market will absorb very quickly its units.

    “High quality” and “affordable pricing” are all relative.

    “market will absorb very quickly” – can you elaborate?

  32. Dave

    The problem for the seller is, if the buyer just doesn’t call you back to remove subjects or doesn’t have a valid reason. You can sue, but not many people want to go to the trouble and expense of a court hearing.

    Aaron……would the buyer not lose their deposit??

    thanks…Dave

  33. Al

    Elan is a reinforced concrete highrisewhere all units come with parking, storage, great finishings, hardwood floor, stainless steel modern appliances…. And many units should have gorgeous views!
    Wouldn’t you consider it as high quality attractive property?
    I think, these units will find the buyers.

  34. Annon

    Wonder if TSX will drop below 12000 this month. That would definitely set the trend.

  35. Dmello

    I agree Al, there never were many assignments listed for Elan last year and the ones that did pop up on MLS sold in a matter of weeks.
    I’m not sure why blueskies thinks that all the flippers are going to hold out until the building is finished.
    If you want to see a building with a LOT of assignments on the market check out H+H just a few blocks down from Elan.

  36. vomitingdog

    I just came back from a meeting downtown and I decided to walk through the Spectrum towers before hopping on the Skytrain. It is like a ghosttown out there. No one lives in the 2 central towers. I only saw 2 people walking through that area aside from myself.

    And to make matters worse, all around new buildings are going up and cranes have appreared all along the waterfront.

    Really. is there going to be demand to meet all this supply? I can’t see it.

    At least the trades will be busy, once they finish putting them up in a hurry, they can remove the cladding and windows and restart the whole thing again under the banner of leaky condo repairs. What a scam city!

  37. -A-

    Thanks Re pumpers:

    You have induced the general public into a semi hypnotic trance. It is widely believed that Vancouver RE will not crash because of the Olympics, the rich immigrants, the shortage of land, and above all, that bubbles can form and blow up, only in the USA, and can crash in Vancouver only if interest rates hit double digits.

    Thank again bulls, please keep it going, as more buildings go up, and as more listings expire the hypnotized subjects continue to believe that it’s just a bit too early to relist; however, when the subjects wake up, it will be too late to sell.

  38. blueskies

    from craigslist: prompton: beach cres:

    #1706 – 583 Beach Crescent $2250

    #2106 – 583 Beach Crescent $2300

    #906 – 583 Beach Crescent $2400

    all listed today

  39. blueskies

    Vancouver RE will not crash because of the Olympics, the rich immigrants, the shortage of land

    it’s different here, we are
    master denialists
    and are very good at it……

  40. An

    “Really. is there going to be demand to meet all this supply? I can’t see it”

    Based on current vacancy rates isn’t it an indication there will be demand?

  41. robchipman

    Blueskies:

    I was wondering who you were quoting (“…Vancouver RE will not crash because of the Olympics, the rich immigrants, the shortage of land…”), because although it often gets thrown up (I’ve got Vomiting Dog’s handle on my mind, I guess) I can’t remember too many “bulls” actually make that argument.

    Of course, the quote is from -A-; there’s no actual bull in sight!

    Makes you wonder: do bears create bulls so that they have someone to disagree with? 🙂

  42. blueskies

    yep! your “straw bull”

  43. aaronbest

    “Aaron……would the buyer not lose their deposit??
    thanks…Dave”

    Buyers can loose their deposit if they give it up front. Most of the time Buyers give their deposits 24 hours after final subject removal. In that case nothing is lost.

  44. -A-

    “Based on current vacancy rates isn’t it an indication there will be demand?”

    Based on the official vacancy rate which does not take into account that almost every house in the Lowermainland has basement suite.

    Rob asks”
    “Blueskies:
    I was wondering who you were quoting (”…Vancouver RE will not crash because of the Olympics, the rich immigrants, the shortage of land…”), because although it often gets thrown up (I’ve got Vomiting Dog’s handle on my mind, I guess) I can’t remember too many “bulls” actually make that argument”

    Yes Rob, bulls make these logically flawed arguments all the time, the “experts” are often quoted in the local media thereby germinating these lies. I stand by this statement.

    As I have stated before, you are too intelligent to make definitive statements as above, however, as they say in court “stop leading the witness”,

    I often express my disdain at what you say, exactly because of your slimy ways.

    You are simply dishonest when you imply that Re believers ,who have drank your Kool-Aid, have not been led to the fountain, by the pumpers and prodded along by people like you.

    As I said before, you have above average intelligence but a very weak moral constitution.

  45. Strataman

    An ; “Based on current vacancy rates isn’t it an indication there will be demand?” Current vacancy rates as posted by stats can have absolutely nothing to do with condos or private homes. Those apply onlly to rental buildings not strata properties. There are well over 1000 vacancies on downtown west end that do not get counted!

  46. WoW

    Please, all, everyone in internet land….”loose” means not attached tightly….”lose” means not to win….

  47. WoW

    I agree with the comments posted on Rob’s typical spin. He seems like a very intelligent and knowledgable individual, but he spins, constently, and his bias shows, clearly. Simply not objective. His interests are aligned with his wallet – I have no particular issue with that, actually….I think it should be.

    Rob – ever read Atlas Shrugged – I re-read it some months ago (what a time consuming process, but what an amazing book)…I have Fountainhead open, page 12….is it similar to Atlas Shrugged (anyone)?

    This Spring – it will be different, in my guesstimate.

  48. robchipman

    Strataman:

    Are you sure? My understanding is that CHMC recognized the error of their ways a couple years ago and changed the way they calculate vacancy rates. If they didn’t then you are correct – a huge amount of our rental pool comes from individually owned strata and non-strata properties.

    -A-

    Thanks for that. I consider myself duly chastised. I can see clearly why you’d characterize “only buy investment real estate that makes sense according to standard metrics, only buy what you can hold because markets go up and down and bad times will come, prepare to hold long term, and don’t speculate” as “Drink the kool-aid children, all will be well”.

    Of course, following my actual advice will likely result in profits. The approach (which isn’t mine, but simply good sense) certainly has a long and a good track record. Its tough to do if you’re starting right now, in this market, but I’ve said that many times, haven’t I? Don’t let the facts get in your way, though, old boy!

    Speaking of facts, if someone drank the kool-aid and bought real estate say, 3 years ago (or 5, 10 or 15 years ago), and sold today, were they non-thinking idiots who simply got lucky because they listened to “pumpers and dumpers”, or did they, just maybe, use some common sense? And if they’ve made a real profit, how can you ignore that fact? And even if they simply continue to hold, haven’t they made huge gains? Won’t they realize those gains at some time?

    I know that you’re a moralizing elitist, but could you try arguing some actual facts once and awhile? 🙂

  49. robchipman

    WoW:

    You may see the spin and the bias, but that doesn’t mean its there. I sell investment properties to investors. I’m not selling many of those these days. Fundamentals are way out of whack. If we could get cash flowing properties for 25%-40% down I’d sell way more, and get management contracts with them to boot. That’s increased commission and increased management fee cash flow. Do you have any idea what the company dollar is on a management contract compared to a sales contract? How can you determine that my wallet benefits from a market like the current one? It just doesn’t make sense.

    If you asked me if you should buy rental property now I’d say “no” 99% of the time.

    If you asked if you should make a trade now I’d have to evaluate your particular circumstances in order to answer.

    If you asked me if you should buy a home today or wait for next year I’d explain what prices have done the past several years, what the risks of buying now are, and what the risks of waiting are, and let you make the decision.

    Where’s the spin? What have I said here that I haven’t said several times in the past? Imagine if I said the exact opposite in each case: buy rentals now, all trades are good (or bad), and don’t worry about recent price history if you’re buying a principal residence. Would you find that acceptable? Better yet, what do you think I should be saying?

  50. -A-

    Speaking of facts, if someone drank the kool-aid and bought real estate say, 3 years ago (or 5, 10 or 15 years ago), and sold today, were they non-thinking idiots who simply got lucky because they listened to “pumpers and dumpers”, or did they, just maybe, use some common sense? And if they’ve made a real profit, how can you ignore that fact? And even if they simply continue to hold, haven’t they made huge gains? Won’t they realize those gains at some time?

    I know that you’re a moralizing elitist, but could you try arguing some actual facts once and awhile?

    Fact: Numbers do not pencil out as they did back then.

    Very basic stuff,

    How many multiplies of rent? How many multiples of yearly income? Population growth etc.
    etc.

    You can spin all you want Rob, but the numbers/facts point to a big crash ahead.

    When? Nobody can now for the exact time.

  51. -A-

    Rob. I think buying RE in Vancouver at this time is a very very bad idea, because the numbers don’t make sense.

    But I am quite convinced you could not make such a clear statement.

    Go ahead Rob, make a simple statement.

    You can’t because you don’t have the luxury of simplicity that comes with truth, and honesty

  52. WoW

    Rob – your detailed reply is appreciate, thank you.

    What I find telling, in your reply, is that you clearly, clearly think fundamentals (from an investment/cash flow standpoint (which differs, clearly, from a relative trade pt ov view, agreed) are not supportive. Good – neither do I.

  53. Snick

    “…you clearly, clearly think fundamentals (from an investment/cash flow standpoint (which differs, clearly, from a relative trade pt ov view, agreed) are not supportive.” re: Rob

    Well! That’s ceraintly an about-face! Egg on that about-face?

    Do you recall the “case for fundamentals” he made awhile back? Lunacy, and even he “secretly” knew it at the time

  54. Snick

    “What have I said here that I haven’t said several times in the past?” – Rob

    You’re full of it.

  55. zed

    Where is satv these days?

  56. blueskies

    Where is satv these days?

    good question!

    leading indicator of a downturn is the sudden disappearance of vocal resident bulls….

  57. robchipman

    WoW:

    What you find telling is something I’ve been saying for quite a while. I’m surprised that you’ve overlooked it in the past.

    What about the assumption that I profit by this market more than I would by a more balanced market? Was I reading you correctly on that?

    -A-:

    “Fact: Numbers do not pencil out as they did back then. Very basic stuff, How many multiplies of rent? How many multiples of yearly income?”

    I’ve said that the same thing for some time, -A-; did you just overlook that fact, or conciously ignore it because it clashes with your view of the world?

    “I think buying RE in Vancouver at this time is a very very bad idea, because the numbers don’t make sense”

    If you’re starting from a position of not owning, and buying for investment purposes, I agree. I’ve said that many times already. Again, I have to ask: did you miss or ignore that?

    If you’re trading, different story. You’ll see that WoW agrees with me on that score. Can you figure your way through that challenge? Or has WoW joined me as an amoral skiver by embracing complexity over simplicity? 🙂

    “You can spin all you want Rob, but the numbers/facts point to a big crash ahead”.

    Point of fact, I said long ago that a correction of some sort was coming, but that I didn’t know when, or how big it would be. I acknowledged that it had to be 20%+ to be a correction.

    What if a crash doesn’t come? What if we another year of price increases followed by nominal stagnation and real losses? What if, in other words, central bankers muddle their way through the current challenges? Are you prepared to rule that out as absolutely impossible? If you allow that the possibility exists, even if its remote, does it make you dishonest?

    What if we see another 14% this year, and then a crash of, say, only 25%? Is that possible? I understand that we can’t predict when the crash will come, but with the two numbers I’ve given you, can we at least pinpoint when the facts began pointing to a crash? Certainly no earlier than mid-2006, right?

    What if we see a crash of less than 50%? A lot of us have seen our property values double, right? We’ve retired mortgages and raised rents in an attempt to keep up with inflation. If that happens speculators and late entrants will certainly get hurt, but I’ve been pretty clear in saying that I don’t speculate or recommend speculation, haven’t I?

    But the one that really makes me laugh at you is this:

    “As I have stated before, you are too intelligent to make definitive statements as above, [Vancouver RE will not crash because of the Olympics, the rich immigrants, the shortage of land].

    That’s quite a feat: I point out that a couple of bears are trading “bull truths” that I seldom hear bulls actually enunciate and you counter that I’m too smart to say such foolish things. I don’t say them because I don’t believe them, and never have. You’re actually criticising me becasue I wont say something that I don’t believe.

    I stand in awe of your intellectual gymnastics, but have to point out that you’ve really got some chutzpah to accuse anyone of spin! 🙂

    -I’ve never said that Vancouver real estate won’t crash.
    -I have said a correction will come, and that it may be a crash, but I don’t think it will be as severe as to merit a “crash” tag.
    -I have said we’ll have 20%+ loss at some time in the future.
    -I have said that the market will change, and that you must buy on a disciplined basis and be prepared to hold long term.
    -I have said that fundamentals will have to come back into balance at some time (sidebar: are you aware that some have argued that San Diego investment property values, even after dropping, won’t come back into balance anywhere near soon enough to justify purchase? Curious, eh? The recommendation was to simply leave and buy elsewhere).

    Anyway, instead of complaining that I don’t say things that I don’t beleive and that you disagree with, why don’t you try disagreeing with what I actually say? Wouldn’t that kind of challenge be more stimulating for you? You can get Snick to help!

  58. robchipman

    Snick:

    You mean, like in November when I wrote:

    “I was surprised to hear someone in that story say that real estate can’t go down in the near future because of the fundamentals. I almost did a double take.” ? 🙂

  59. Strataman

    Rob; “Are you sure? My understanding is that CHMC recognized the error of their ways a couple years ago and changed the way they calculate vacancy rates” In 2007 CMHC revamped there sampling to include some condos, homes,however the criteria they use to be included is 3 suites for rent by the same owner, or property nager or licensed realitor. You rent I think more then 3 suites so if they sampled you you would be included if you are acting(officially) as a property manager. If you are not collecting a management fee you would not be included. If ONE owner has 4 suites for rent those suites are counted, if four owners each have one (or less then three such as two! 🙂 then they are not counted or included in any survey. I am included in their survey as I represent a few dozen owners. (I am not a property manager but am considered officially an owners rep, which means I have signing authority for the owner).

  60. -A-

    Speaking of Satv… I have often suspected he is Rob

    If you peel the layers of the obvious masquerade, the message is the same.

    Rob:
    “You can get Snick to help!”
    Get serious Rob, Snick has mopped the floor with you too many times on his own, both of us ganging up on you would be sacrilegious; I’m not like you, I think even you deserve some fairness.

  61. WoW

    Enough Rob bashing, yeesh….

    Now, the numbers se vous plait!:))

  62. blueskies

    producing positive cashflow from day one!!!!

    Great for investors / unit was rented for $2000/mo. Will get you a tenant if required for $2000/mo.

    http://tinyurl.com/2yjone

    lost a tenant?
    gotta get out fast?
    craigslist ad 🙂

  63. Johnnyrent

    Hey Rob

    Here’s at least one bear who thinks you’ve been consistent and balanced.

    Note to some: disagreeing with certain points of view is not a “spin”, its an alternative opinion.

    Ever since I started following this blog Rob has said markets change, they always do. He has also said that the cure for high prices is high prices. It would seem to me then, that those who predict a virtually unchanged market with eternally increasing prices are at odds with Rob’s perspective.

    Keep the debate going but remember that’s what it is, not a contest of wills.

  64. funshine

    Maybe there’s a difference, but when you debated the disclosure issue a few months ago, your advice was “mind you” there was no obligation to disclose a buyer’s decision not to buy on the basis of an inspection report as long as you (the realtor) were not aware of the details of the report.

    That’s ridiculous and it seems you’ve changed your opinion on this point. If a realtor suspects that there’s something wrong with a property because of a bad inspection report then the realtor is aware of a problem with the property.

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