Weekly Numbers & Mexican Real Estate

Busy week, hence weekly numbers.

Since Monday there have been 1,117 new listings and 380 sales.  What kind of sell/list is that? 34.02%! Ouch!

Inventory has reached 8,084, with over 90s reaching 2174, or 26.89%.

Looks like December in reverse!

I recently mentioned a Costa Rican real estate project. Today I ran across another interesting development for those interested in sunny real estate. Bank of Nova Scotia and Finance North America will team up to offer Canadian and US citizens mortgages to purchase, construct or re-finance Mexican property.  The world is certainly getting smaller.

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91 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers, Investment Approach

91 responses to “Weekly Numbers & Mexican Real Estate

  1. Snick

    Is Aaron’s shack on King Albert St. in Coquitlam, listed since November for 510K, close to being sold yet?

    Whassup?

  2. I like those numbers…

    Mexican RE is a bit problematic, in that non-citizens are not allowed to own property (vestiges of the Revolution). Beach front is worse because there is a covenant of, I believe, 200 metres from the high water mark. Then there is the whole ejido thing. Further, corruption is rampant.

    I almost bought something in Mexico 10 years ago, but saw caution as the better part of valour.

  3. robchipman

    Snick:

    Its not Aaron’s property. It belongs to someone else. You might consider showing them the same degree of respect that you’d show a stranger (wait, maybe you already are!)

    I’ve told you that I’ll update the public when I can. If you want to know more you’ll have to enquire through an agent. I believe you have some sort of relationship with a couple of Realtors in the Coquitlam area. You might start with them if you want private information. Otherwise you’ll have to wait until we have a firm sale.

  4. WoW

    Thx Rob….what do you make of the #’s?

    Enjoy the weekend.

  5. robchipman

    Solipsist:

    My understanding is that gringos can own land in the Mexican interior, but not in the restricted zone (within 100 kms of borders or 50 kms of the beach). You can own it there through a fidecomiso (a special trust), and that’s how a lot of Mexican real estate is owned (and no doubt mortgaged). I do know that lots of North Americans own land within 50 klicks of the beach (look at Vallarta, etc, and the condos sold there up and down the coast).

    Ejidos, corruption – sure, they exist. But isn’t that part of the beauty of the place? Where else can you straighten up traffic fines for half price, on the spot, with no paperwork? 🙂

  6. robchipman

    WoW:

    Faster run up of listings than I expected, but I still expected less than 50% sell/list for the first part of the month. We’ll have to monitor it. If we stop seeing price growth, and inventory and MOI stays low I think we’re in for a stall. If we see low or no price growth and inventory grows, look out (cry at the loss or smile at the opportunity). If we see more of 2007, 2006, 2005…what can I say?

  7. But isn’t that part of the beauty of the place?

    Yes, exactly. It is part of what I love about Mexico. It is raw and gritty, but above all, it’s real. WYSIWYG. That is why gringos have places on the beach.

    But, the government does not hold to the revolutionary laws, and is much more corrupt than any individual. I guess that my point is; some day, any day, the laws will be enforced, and those places on the beach will be forfeited. It breeds a lot of resentment in the campesinos too, and that is not to be taken lightly.

  8. WoW

    Look out below? Could this impact pricing of vcr RE? Do people feel more optimistic about RE when there is increased economic uncertianty?

    Breaking News from The Globe and Mail

    Tepid jobs report hints that 2008 will be tough
    TAVIA GRANT AND RICHARD BLACKWELL

    Friday, January 11, 2008

    It was a golden era for Canada’s labour market last year, as the jobless rate hit a 33-year low and employment swelled by 370,000 jobs, laying the groundwork for the richest wage increases in at least a decade.

    Yet some of the pillars that propped up 2007’s job creation may be cracking.

    Construction, a solid employer over the past year, is cooling – as this week’s housing starts and building permit reports reflected. Pockets of the financial services sector are smarting from a credit crunch and a falling stock market. Factories, in the meantime, sliced their work force throughout last year, and there are signs that those cuts will continue.

    The shift was reflected yesterday in Statistics Canada’s employment figures for December, which showed momentum faltering at the end of the year as employers cut the greatest number of jobs since 2003.

    “We know that the next six months are going to be challenging. I wouldn’t be surprised if private sector employment falls,” said Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc.

    Collapsing U.S. demand, a strong currency and rising energy costs can take several quarters to show up in the Canadian economy, he added.

    Employment in the private sector barely budged last year, rising just 0.4 per cent. The strongest job reports for the year came from the public sector and the self-employed, Statistics Canada said yesterday.

    However, Mr. Tal thinks public-service employment gains will also deflate in the coming months, “given the slowing economy.”

    If any area expands, it will likely be what Mr. Tal calls the “forced self-employed” – workers, for example, that can’t find a job and consequently try to start their own businesses. Self-employment levels tend to rise as economic conditions deteriorate.

    The weaker-than-expected jobs report bolstered bets that interest rates will fall, and that sent the Canadian dollar tumbling. The currency closed yesterday at a four-week low of 98.07 cents (U.S.), down more than a cent.

    Finance Minister Jim Flaherty insisted yesterday that the weaker job picture is merely a “rough patch” and does not indicate Canada is facing a possible recession.

  9. Newcomer

    I was just in England where I saw an old brick garage (it is listed as a converted coach house, but it was no bigger than an ordinary Vancouver garage, with two small windows) in north London (N5) for 1.3 million pounds, which is about 2.6 M Canadian. At least you get a proper house here for that much.

  10. tofino bear

    anybody else see this?
    ignoring it maybe?

    http://tinyurl.com/35u2z9

    blueskies

  11. Snick

    “If we see more of 2007, 2006, 2005…what can I say?” – Rob

    The US is ALREADY in a recession, and British Columbia will start feeling the UGLY effects soon enough. (We are usually the last in and the last out of recessions on this continent).

    This downturn will be, at the very least, as bad as 1981-82.

    Therefore, I would assume that Aaron Best will start “convincing” the owners of that Coquitlam shack to lower their price.

    The chance of any price increases is highly unlikely going forward. “Stall and decline” is what will be/is happening.

    Realtors? Me? Cosy? Nope.

  12. Snick

    “Newcomer
    January 11, 2008 at 8:41 pm
    I was just in England where I saw an old brick garage (it is listed as a converted coach house, but it was no bigger than an ordinary Vancouver garage, with two small windows) in north London (N5) for 1.3 million pounds, which is about 2.6 M Canadian. At least you get a proper house here for that much.”

    Yeah? So? People can “ask” whatever they want. Doesn’t mean it will sell for that price.

    Take that shack on King Albert in Coquitlam, for example…

  13. Newcomer

    >>Yeah? So? People can “ask” whatever they want. Doesn’t mean it will sell for that price.<<

    It was only meant as an amusing anecdote for a bunch RE geeks (which is what we are), but really, if it sold for 30% less, would it make any difference?

  14. Mightymouse

    Look Snick, some of us are quite addicted to the numbers Rob provides. If you could show a little respect it would be much appreciated. Rob’s a realtor. He markets properties for market value. That’s the way it is. No one’s holding a gun to the buyers head… We just have to be patient. There’s no reason to loose our etiquette.

    The ‘shack’ will sell for market value… Whatever that is.

  15. -A-

    Yeah be nice Snick, if Rob shuts this down we will have to start our on blog.

    Let’s avoid that for now. I like having this outlet; it’s like being divorced, but with bedroom privileges.

    Thanks for the numbers Rob, but a commentary from Aaron now and then would make it more entertaining.

  16. TOTO

    A bunch of idiots in here talking cock.

    Get a life!

  17. bearette

    Have we ever had a week with more than a thousand listing? Bring it on. I’m liking the way this year is shaping up.

  18. Snowball

    Perhaps the bear grin would freeze when you look at January 2007 numbers from Rob’s old blog.

  19. BOBBYBEAR

    ya…see some of the news which almost anybody knows….throw in a a projection or 3 with the R word….suddenly………….NEW BALL GAME ..hang on to your seats.

  20. BOBBYBEAR

    ya…see some of the news which almost anybody knows….throw in a a projection or 3 with the R word….suddenly………….NEW BALL GAME ..hang on to your seats.

  21. Geezer

    Newcomer wrote:
    “It was only meant as an amusing anecdote for a bunch RE geeks (which is what we are), but really, if it sold for 30% less, would it make any difference?”

    Thanks for the reality check but on this forum there is a big difference, most would say it was originally overpriced but Snick would say “See, the sky really is falling!”

  22. whybuywhenucanrent

    Note that the King Albert Shack has some spiffy photos on the MLS listing now–no more piles of boxes in the laundry room V678457 Did anyone notice when this happened?

    Whybuywhenucanrent?

  23. AmPa

    Snick and -A- are so cute together.

    They pleasure and induce orgasm in each other by their idiotic comments about real estate.

    Not even Freud could figure these ones out.

  24. Popeye

    Imagine, 1,117 new listings!! Finally an honest looking figure. (Recall how I always bash these numbers.)

    So now there’s more ammunition to think home values will drop in 2008. Here’s my take, in point form.

    1. The fall in home prices in the US is getting worse, not better, and investors are wondering if it could happen here, giving them the jitters. The concern is legitimate.

    2. In turn, investors and speculators might take a wait-and-see attitude, leaving many properties on the market unsold, and putting downward pressure on prices.

    3. Condo owners, and even SFH owners, are looking for renters to relieve them from high monthly carrying costs, causing the rental market to be flooded, as it is now. Hanging on will not be an option.

    4. The talk of a world wide recession alone is enough to dry up speculation especially in assets like real estate, which is illiquid.

    5. All the major banks are making it tougher for people to qualify for mortgages, reducing the number of prospective buyers. The discount has been reduced to 60 points from 90.

    6. The rise in property taxes and utilities, and the general rise in the cost of living make it harder to hold real estate as an investment. It takes a lot of blind faith to think things will improve for the investor these days. I, for one, don’t.

    The numbers say a mood of sauve qui peut is taking hold (means every man for himself).

  25. Mightymouse

    Here’s a clip from Rob’s Old blog, taken January 14th 2006:

    “Over the past 12 days there were 1549 new listings and 660 sales, for a 42.6% sell to list ratio.

    As of today, in my market area (described in earlier posts)there are 5,586 active listings, of which 1,664 listings have been on the market more than 90 days. That means 29.8% of all active listings have been exposed to the market for at least three months, but haven’t sold.”

  26. Mightymouse

    Here’s a clip from Rob’s Old blog, taken January 13th 2007:

    “The 14 day rolling sell/list was 52.45%.

    There were 8,669 active listings in my target area Friday, of which 2,565, or 29.59%, have been on the market at least 90 days.”

    “We’ve seen 621 sales so far this month in my target area. “

  27. Mightymouse

    I guess you had a different target area on January 14th 2006.

  28. Strataman

    From Jan06 asper MightMouse
    “Over the past 12 days there were 1549 new listings and 660 sales, for a 42.6% sell to list ratio.
    As of today, in my market area (described in earlier posts)there are 5,586 active listings,

    Jan 08
    Since Monday there have been 1,117 new listings and 380 sales. What kind of sell/list is that? 34.02%! Ouch!
    Inventory has reached 8,084, with over 90s reaching 2174, or 26.89%.

    So we have 44% more listings this year over last years number.Thats a sizable increase! 1664/2174 over 90’s is 30% more not minor either.
    Last years was apparently over 12 days, this weeks is 5 days. Again substantial change. Is it a trend? Wait and see! 🙂

  29. Mightymouse

    Sorry Strataman, I’ve been digging around and I think Rob increased his area around April 9th 2006. However, the rolling sell to list ratio looks down.

    42.6% – 2006

    52.45%. – 2007

    34.02% – 2008

  30. Strataman

    MightyMouse Is okay! 🙂 Maybe Rob can come up with a date when we could compare yoy in April or whenever?Rob old buddy? 🙂

  31. Mightymouse

    Total Inventory YOY:

    8,669 – 2007

    8,084 – 2008

  32. Strataman

    Bummer! 🙂

  33. -A-

    Ampa:
    “Snick and -A- are so cute together.

    They pleasure and induce orgasm in each other by their idiotic comments about real estate.

    Not even Freud could figure these ones out.”

    Ok, let’s talk RE, where do you think it is headed and why?

    Mighty:
    “Total Inventory YOY:

    8,669 – 2007

    8,084 – 2008”

    Do those numbers capture the thousands and thousands of new units all over the Lower Mainland?

  34. Thanks Jaymo, interesting excerpt:

    “It’s looking pretty scary and dismal right now,” she says. Used to working non-stop on dozens of shows, Nieken has been out of work for weeks and is now juggling overdue bills and a new mortgage. “If I don’t get a job in the next few weeks, I don’t know [what I’m going to do]. I really don’t want to go bankrupt.”

    …..

    I am sure I don’t have all the context, but this kind of shows of BCers probably don’t have much of a rainy day funds stashed away.

  35. -A-

    Macchiato, this is where the bulls have a blind spot.

    They can’t understand that when the USA devalues its currency, it is for a desired outcome.

    Currently, it is not only to increase their exports, but also to bring back any jobs they exported with a strong US Greenback.

    The bulls are simply not connecting the dots.

    They drank the kool aid, the Muirs and the Rennies have supplied.

    This is the Best Place on Earth. We are running out of land. The rich immigrants etc, etc.

    Most of the working stiffs believe it, most of them have never travelled beyond Maple Ridge.

  36. Wow … the actor in the article, his resume is actually fairly impressive, I did recognize him:

    http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0576721/

    Now …

    Shane Meier, who has starred in The Matthew Shepard Story, Intelligence and Call of the Wild, is selling jeans in Vancouver’s Yaletown district. “I’ve never, ever had a day job before,” Meier, 30, says. “I’ve got a mortgage and various other payments, which is why I’m working in a clothing store now.” Prior to this period, Meier had worked steadily as an actor since he was 10 years old.

  37. Snick

    “…most of them have never travelled beyond Maple Ridge.” – A –

    Which is why they believe all that junk about Vancouver being “the place to be”.

    Many people throughout the world haven’t even heard of Vancouver and they don’t care squat about what goes on here.

  38. -A-

    Just a few days ago I posted that wage deflation was a real possibility, as I pointed out in the early 80’s, construction workers lost 30% when the union jobs dried up and had to take on jobs with small builders. One of the bulls mocked the idea.

    Again, I will make the same point; prices may be sticky on the way down, but high wages can respond to the market place very rapidly.

    When the high paying Re related jobs start to diminish, so will those who can and are willing to struggle with high mortgage payments.

  39. Snick

    Be sure to watch “The Condo Crunch” on CBC Newsworld, (Channel 26) at 7:30 p.m.

  40. Snick

    …er, TONIGHT!

  41. A Looser

    Is Condo Crunch the show I saw the other day with Wendy Mesley? I don’t know if I could ever buy a condo after watching that.

  42. victoria bear

    “Vancouver house prices can’t keep rising forever

    recently argued that Vancouver is immune from all of those negative forces that tend to cause economic recessions — things like Middle East wars, high oil prices, credit crunches in the U.S., etc.

    http://tinyurl.com/2wwk85

    blueskies

  43. DeeDub

    Just a few days ago I posted that wage deflation was a real possibility…

    Certainly a possibility. If you look out far enough, it’s probably even fair to say it’s a near certainty.

    That said, I have 5 open reqs right now that I haven’t been able to fill in months. Will probably have another 5 opening up over the next couple of months, which g-d only knows how long it will take to fill. All tech, all local, all in the ~100k+ range – and but damn hard to get people.

  44. Annon

    We will be so upside down if the labour shortage is partly a result of the over-rated Olympics.

  45. peau de cul

    Snick,
    “Many people throughout the world haven’t even heard of Vancouver and they don’t care squat about what goes on here.”

    You are so absolutely right.

    But I think it is human nature, everyone think of themselves as being the center of the world.
    I can see Seattle as having some rights to claim world recognition, but Vancouver…where is that? I have never met yet one person during my travels that knew where Vancouver was, or if it was a city in Canada – most people think it probably is some place in the States.

  46. Snick

    victoria bear
    January 12, 2008 at 7:04 pm
    “Vancouver house prices can’t keep rising forever

    recently argued that Vancouver is immune from all of those negative forces that tend to cause economic recessions — things like Middle East wars, high oil prices, credit crunches in the U.S., etc.

    http://tinyurl.com/2wwk85

    blueskies

    Great in-depth journlism there. NOT!

    This dizzy reporter never once mentioned the cheap money that launched this world-wide mania, the US meltdown and its spillover effects, the disconnect with fundamentals, the tepid immigration to this province, the frenzy of speculation and the severe upcoming recession.

    Really crappy article.

  47. $fromA$ia (everybody's a RE tycoon)

    Toto, don’t talk (Cock).

    What a waste of the word for a sentence.

  48. -A-

    “That said, I have 5 open reqs right now that I haven’t been able to fill in months. Will probably have another 5 opening up over the next couple of months, which g-d only knows how long it will take to fill. All tech, all local, all in the ~100k+ range – and but damn hard to get people.”
    Yes indeed it is hard to get good people. Vancouver is simply not competitive when it comes to attracting highly trained workers.
    Our main source of immigration is from second and third world countries.
    As I posted before, I find it morally reprehensible to target the best educated people, who could possibly help their country out of poverty, and we recruit them to become cab drivers, food services workers, and worse yet, realtors.
    Do you not find it interesting that the acute shortage of labour has not resulted in the closing down of any Wal-marts, pizza joints, cab companies, and other low wage industries?

    My guess is there are no labour shortages. Just highly trained worker shortages, and for good reasons.

    Bottom line: We have an acute shortage of doctors, and hard science majors, and a surplus of realtors.

  49. Priced Out

    “Do you not find it interesting that the acute shortage of labour has not resulted in the closing down of any Wal-marts, pizza joints, cab companies, and other low wage industries?”

    I see lots of empty commercial space, and some small businesses that seem to be struggling despite our overheated economy.

    The other day a saw an ad for the NCO call centre with a $700 signing bonus. There are constant job fairs for employers like McDonald’s, and their ads mention benefits unheard of a few years ago.

    The labour shortages are in lower skilled jobs too. The trouble is — and I’ve seen this — someone who has just arrived in Canada with a thick accent (and still some basic weakness in English) is going to have difficulties in the service sector. Call centres, in particular, need people with fairly “generic” North American accents.

    Have you been to a store or restaurant lately? Noticed the decrease in service? Even our rents have priced out a lot of low skilled people. People who would have come here from other parts of Canada, don’t do so like they used to because of our high housing costs. They want don’t to pay $1000/month to live below some noisy family in a moldy, dark basement suite. Who cares about the ocean and mountains if all you do is work and commute?

  50. WoW

    Rob, I look fwd to next week’s #’s to see if a major cooling trend is underway…..thx as always for the #s….

    Things look a little bearish to me…

  51. jesse

    “I find it morally reprehensible to target the best educated people…”

    Yeah I have problems with this. As do governments if you ask them straight. (Some BC Liberals are on record saying things have to change to allow faster acceptance of foreign trained workers) Trying to influence the professional organisations is very difficult due to their political influence but I do feel a shift in the past five years.

    “The labour shortages are in lower skilled jobs too.”

    Labour shortage is not due only to a booming economy; ultimately the high cost of living in Vancouver contributes to this. A family with a nice house in Toronto could not afford to move to Vancouver and buy the same standard (i.e. square feet of property). To get such a family to move here takes either more salary or convincing them Vancouver has more bang for their buck. Despite what you hear about Vancouver being so great, it appears most are not willing to take the hit in living space/conditions and this is showing up as a “labour shortage”.

  52. -A-

    A reply from Freako to one of the regular bulls…..

    “1981, a 50% rise in interest rates (from 13% to 18%) caused the market crash”

    Precipitated not caused. Interest rates fell all the way back down to 13% as the market declined.

    Some time ago, Geezer was holding the “rates sunk the market in 1981″ line, so I looked into the Sauder Excel data. Here is a repost of what I found:

    —————————————————–
    Absolute interest rates in themselves don’t mean anything. It is rates relative to prices that matter. Below is the Vancouver SFH data I posted the other day:

    Quarter Rates Prices in thousands.
    1980.1 14.69 115.73
    1980.2 12.92 130.37
    1980.3 14.5 146.86
    1980.4 15.6 171.69
    1981.1 15.75 233.53
    1981.2 18.55 229.73
    1981.3 21.46 226.00
    1981.4 17.79 208.72
    1982.1 19.41 191.63
    1982.2 19.1 183.34
    1982.3 17.49 170.21
    1982.4 14.34 150.78

    Between q1 1980 and q3 1983 (18 months) prices went up a whopping 95% as rates also went UP from 14.69 to 21.46.

    Let’s check the way down. Between q3 1981 and q4 1982, prices went down 34% AS RATES FELL FROM 21.46 to 14.34.

    Geezer’s notion that 19% rates brought the market down is completele BOGUS.

    The market went down because it ran ahead of fundamentals and it was time to pay the piper

  53. DeeDub

    Vancouver is simply not competitive when it comes to attracting highly trained workers.

    Can’t speak for others, but in our case, while this is true it has nothing to do with salaries or cost of housing as those are comparable (or even more favorable) than the hot spots we’re recruiting from.

    Our problem is Vancouver’s lack of concentration in a number of high tech disciplines. This isn’t San Jose or Boston where you’re likely to run into Marvin Minsky while grabbing an organic burrito. Twenty years from now, as Vancouver’s knowledge industry matures, this may change, but for now it’s a real challenge.

  54. $fromA$ia (everybody's a RE tycoon)

    Can somebody invite Freako back to this blog, sorry Rob if you don’t want him hear.

    His input and perspective was great.

  55. -A-

    “Can somebody invite Freako back to this blog, sorry Rob if you don’t want him hear.

    His input and perspective was great.”

    That reminds me, on an earlier thread, Uncle Rob, took delight in pointing out that Tulips and Freako were wrong with their predictions, but I ask:

    If this thing blows up good, in the next few months, will have they been wrong in a material sense, just because they might have been a few months wrong?

  56. Fozziebear

    “A family with a nice house in Toronto could not afford to move to Vancouver and buy the same standard (i.e. square feet of property). To get such a family to move here takes either more salary or convincing them Vancouver has more bang for their buck. Despite what you hear about Vancouver being so great, it appears most are not willing to take the hit in living space/conditions and this is showing up as a “labour shortage”.”

    This is all too true. Toront had their bull run and crash in ’89-’90. With that in mind, I don’t think too many from Toronto would even consider a career or RE purchase in Vancouver. At least not until the correction has run its course.

  57. Anonymous

    “No Evidence’ Housing Decline Is Ending”

    “We have this wave of resets coming,” Paulson said, referring to the almost 2 million of adjustable-rate loans forecast to jump to higher rates in the coming two years. “One thing we will consider is maybe expanding this beyond subprime borrowers to other borrowers”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avJukkXAFuWo&refer=home

  58. Anonymous

    “BofA’s awesome Countrywide tax break
    Brace yourselves, taxpayers of America. You’re going to help Bank of America finance its $4 billion buyout of Countrywide.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/news/companies/sloan_countrywide.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008011114

  59. HELLOOOO DEEDUB and A

    You both mention jobs in info technology. “A” quoted/said that there are at least 5 available jobs in the industry, but that the employer(s) cannot find qualified workers to fill them.

    I happen to know a fantastic IT specialist who is working in the USA, but would like to return to home/CANADA. But she never sees postings for those $100k-plus jobs. How does it work again? You gotta “know someBUDDY?”

  60. Anonymous

    A friend called his realtor this weekend and was ready to sign and list so she could have viewings while he was on holidays out of town. She said he had to do flipper updates to sell and that the market was “static” in the West-End. “Maybe list in April or May when things are busy again,” she said. Does this indicate not everyone that wants to list is getting listed now that Christmas is over? Would you not sign a client that was interested in selling? He wants to sell!

  61. TDK

    -A-,

    I had my chance to work with many foreign immigrants, including those from UK, Australia, and South Africa. Their standards are not the same. All immigrants should be required to obtain Canadian designations and certificates before being able to work in Canada (for jobs that requires). The guys I had to work with from Australia and South Africa are worst than the guys I had to work with from India. We need to be careful about foreign credentials.

  62. Jeff

    Anonymous:
    The west end of where Detroit?

  63. WoW

    Rob/Jeff – first two weeks of 2008 – HOT, or NOT?

  64. Anonymous

    Hey Jeff, I meant the “West End” near Stanley Park in Vancouver.

  65. househunter

    Hi Rob,

    I know we can own US real estate but are we able to collect rent on that real estate if we live in Canada? If not, is there a way around this?

  66. Newcomer

    househunter:

    Why on earth not? It might be necessary or expedient for tax purposes to run the rent through a corporation but the US does not have any restrictions on foreigners owning property or doing business there.

  67. jesse

    “Our problem is Vancouver’s lack of concentration in a number of high tech disciplines.”

    This is a bit of a double-edged sword. Turnover in tech enclaves can be high though some unnamed Vancouver tech companies are known for high turnover too.

    Certainly housing costs in San Fran, Boston, and parts England, are not that bad compared to Vancouver, as long as you pay a decent salary.

  68. BOBBYBEAR

    Every bull market eventually corrects or enters a bear market. This includes stocks, gold, RE , art, bonds and so forth.

    The trillion dollar question is the credit market actually a cycle that has peaked? I mean who is left to give credit to?

  69. Newcomer

    Here’s a solution to the problem of being stuck with a condo that can’t be flipped or rented — turn it into a hotel. Ninety bucks a night to stay at the Spectrum.

    http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/apa/538696335.html

  70. Strataman

    newcomer; “turn it into a hotel. Ninety bucks a night to stay at the Spectrum.” yep that place is going to be a character building, inside info says already dozens of police visits for wild parties! Short term renters paradise!

  71. robchipman

    Money:

    “Can somebody invite Freako back to this blog, sorry Rob if you don’t want him hear. ”

    Maybe a little mythbusting is in order. Nobody disinvited freako. He left on his own. Everyone’s welcome here provided they maintain a minimum level of civility (freako was always able to do that).

    -A-

    Perhaps a little more mythbusting – I posted all 2007 predictions that I could attribute, not just freako and tulip’s, and I pointed out that tulip was the most accurate for 2006. Predictions are fun for everyone, but prove very little. BTW, all the 2007 predictions were wrong, not just freako and tulip’s.

    As far as your question goes, I can’t answer – I think you see the market’s function as being an arbitrator of whether you and yours win an argument. I don’t see that as particularly relevant. I’ve said the market will change because it always does. It follows, logically, that someday freako and tulip will be right. The obvious question is: who cares, and why?

    “As I posted before, I find it morally reprehensible to target the best educated people, who could possibly help their country out of poverty,…”

    Let me ask you this: say an electrical engineer in Cuba, qualified to run nuclear plants and entitled to a government job is instead driving cab in Havana because the money is better. Should he be forced to stay in Cuba and work as an electrical engineer for less than he can earn as a Havana cabbie, or should he be allowed to come here, drive cab, make more money, and send Canadian dollars back home? Which approach will render greater effects? Which is less morally reprehensible? (Or should be be found guilty of breaking the law for dealing with foreigners without permission? 🙂 )

    (That thought occurred to me because I heard somewhere, accurately or not, that less developed countries receive much more income from expat nationals working in the developed world than from any kind of aid. Not sure if its true, but it is interesting. If it is true, and if the world is becoming flatter, perhaps its a good thing to allow educated people to earn more money here rather than asking them to continue struggling in the old country. Just a thought).

  72. tqn

    $14 billion for B.C. transit Campbell unveils transit vision for Metro Vancouver and across B.C.

    Vancouver Sun
    Published: Monday, January 14, 2008

    VANCOUVER – Premier Gordon Campbell has announced a $14 billion new transit plan for B.C.
    The plan will double the number of buses throughout the province by 2020, and will bring two new rapid transit lines — the Evergreen Line, a line to the University of British Columbia – as well as upgrades to the existing Expo Line.
    The Evergreen line is expected to cost about $1.4 billion and could be finished as early as 2012.
    The UBC line will cost about $2.8 billion, and will be finished around 2020, Campbell said.
    On the Expo line, Campbell said his government is proposing significant upgrades to the Expo Line so it can accommodate more capacity.
    “These are significant investments,” Campbell said on Monday morning.
    Campbell said his plan also calls for $1.2 billion for a high capacity high speed bus service along routes in Kelowna, Victoria and Metro Vancouver.
    “This plan will provide fast, reliable, green transit that acts as a catalyst to change the nature and form of all our communities – urban, suburban and rural,” Campbell said in a news release.
    In that same news release, Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon said the new plan will bring significant benefits to people across the province.
    “The transit plan sets out innovative, integrated, customized solutions for individual communities to keep people and goods moving efficiently in B.C. as part of our broader transportation strategy,” said Falcon.
    “Increased transit will allow people more choice, and often time savings. For example, during peak periods, transit riders travelling between Coquitlam Centre and Vancouver International Airport can save more than an hour every day compared to drivers.”

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=f3218ef4-c4fb-413f-bebb-cb8fea512570&k=47746

  73. YLTWNboomerang

    “Here’s a solution to the problem of being stuck with a condo that can’t be flipped or rented — turn it into a hotel. Ninety bucks a night to stay at the Spectrum.”

    I’d be shocked if the above is permitted within the strata rules. I served on council at two different Concord built buildings and the initial baseline strata rules provided did not permit short-term rentals to avoid the above situation. Operating an apartment as a hotel room seriously undermines the security of other occupants.

  74. Priced Out

    http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/sub/536731505.html

    Some company called HOME SWEET HOME rents condotels in various parts of Vancouver, including in the Spectrum. Even out in Burnaby, which makes no sense at all. I wonder how they doing with TV/film writers on strike?

  75. Priced Out

    http://tinyurl.com/2nc7wn

    We should look to China for ideas to solve the Olympic housing problems.

    The shipping trailers are a good start: A hive where the drones can live.

    But the Olympics are only two years away, so we have to find more solutions now.

    I suggest the government temporarily expropriate all private residences in Whistler during the Olympics for worker and volunteer housing. The owners should get some compensation from rent, and the government should return the properties in reasonable condition in 2011. This is a lot nicer than China where they would just clear everything and build housing blocks.

    Other voluntary solutions haven’t worked:

    “The proposal follows an unsuccessful attempt by the HOME committee to persuade owners of vacation properties to rent 100 beds directly to businesses that would guarantee the employees would take care of them and pay their rent on time. Not a single homeowner took up the offer, Forsyth said.”

  76. Strataman

    “I’d be shocked if the above is permitted within the strata rules” Boy do I have news for you, it is not only common but is easily circumvented. I know of dozens of overnight units in strata’s that have that “rule” Solution to circumnavigating the “rule” A management company rents the place long term, so the “renter” is the same “company”. They rent continuously to overnight clients, tenants changing all the time. Technically a strata is supposed to have the name of the tenant, but in reality it is impossible to enforce as it would require daily inspections by strata. What I find suprising is that the HOTELS are not raising hell!

  77. Al

    “condotels in various parts of Vancouver, including in the Spectrum”

    Your idea about turning the buildings into hotel seems very strange.

    I own two units in Spectrum that I rented out easely and feel happy with my renters (professionals with good credithistories).

    $1550Can/month for 1 year lease.

    I don’t beleive that other investors have much problems.

    Also, don’t forget that many Spectrum investors received special offers for their mortgages with interest rates from 2, 95% to 4,25%.

    Numbers definitely work for most Spectrum’s investors if they want to hold.

  78. Priced Out

    Al,

    The condotels aren’t my idea. Just reporting a fact. How do you think they will affect your property values?

  79. thomas

    wow. massive fiscal stimulus to Lower Mainland economy. construction jobs safe through at least 2020 with all that transportation building. looks like Vancouver property is only headed one direction….up!

  80. -A-

    tqn:
    “$14 billion for B.C. transit Campbell unveils transit vision for Metro Vancouver and across B.C.”

    I suppose the intent of this great news is to somehow suggest this will shield the victims when the bubble blows up.

    Hurry tqn, go tell it everywhere that the savior is here.

    Thomas, you can’t be serious.

    Do you honestly think a 14 billion welfare program is the answer?

  81. Priced Out

    That is what it is; mainly a way to keep some people employed during the coming recession.

  82. -A-

    “That is what it is; mainly a way to keep some people employed during the coming recession.”

    Exactly, just plain old politics. The low income earners will end up paying for it.

    It won’t be those who can afford “tax planning”

  83. robchipman

    Strataman:

    Thanks for that input. I don’t do thta business and always assumed it would be a challenge to try, based on strata bylaws/ form Ks/ etc.

    What about the fairly common rule of no commercial activity? Any comments?

    -A-

    The announcement was a huge news story this morning. If you’re going to go after tqn for posting it with a hidden agenda it seems only fair that you do the same for coco (she’s got to be the queen of posting news links). Its really got to go both ways (fwiw I like the links from both tqn and coco, and anyone else).

    14 billion dollar spent on infrastructure is a welfare program? Sometimes I don’t know if your left or right! Today you sound like an anti-New Deal Roosevelt hater.

    Bottom line: more infrastructure is better for all property values (not just suburban values, and I don’t think it will hurt downtown values either). The link isn’t direct enough for the $14b to avert a correction.

  84. tqn

    -A-,
    I enjoy reading your post. If I could turn your negativities in to a business of some sort, I would have made enough profit to have a freedom 45 instead of 55 🙂 Keep up the good work.

  85. -A-

    Rob, I am not left or right.

    I do agree with your:

    “The link isn’t direct enough for the $14b to avert a correction.”

    As for tqn, let’s leave that alone, as you know, I am a very nice person, and I don’t want to incite rudeness.

  86. Strataman

    “What about the fairly common rule of no commercial activity?” In general this is easily enforcible as it required people (customers) coming and going. Stratas have sucess in enforcing this, as evidence of active business dealings is spotted by neighbours. (The keyword active). However a short term daily or weekly renter disrupts (neighbours) very little going to business meetings elsewhere, looking much like any other working resident, coming with a suitcase and leaving with a suitcase. In some respects these suites are less disruptive than normal renters who tie up elevators every month, with move ins/outs. My personal experience in meeting these people is that they are content quiet residents, whom I meet by accident thru some sort of building system failure. My request for the phone number of the owner, is met with “you know I don’t have the faintest idea!” So then I find the owner on the strata list, phone and they say so and so looks after that for me, contact him/her. They never know who is actually IN their place! 🙂 I’ve actually considered buying for this reason, cause then I would lease it to one of those firms and stay renting which I can afford! 🙂

  87. robchipman

    -A-

    I won’t call you left wing, but I’m pretty damn sure you’re not right wing. You strike me as a moralistic, anti-rich, elitist, pro-tax and anti-individual rights conspiracy theorist (which some would equate with the left)- I see nothing right wing there, but maybe I’m glossing over your finer points 🙂

    Anyway, you’re the guy spinning the $14b announcement as a bear’s feeble grasp at salvation. While it will obviously generate jobs I didn’t see anyone say it would be a magic bullet for anything. You’re just strawmanning again.

  88. tqn

    -A-,
    I am sure you are a nice person as you claimed to be one.

  89. Pingback: January 10 Stats Update « The Best Real Estate Anywhere!

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