Friday, Monday and Tuesday Numbers

Tuesday we had 97 new listings and 97 sales for a sell/list of 100%.   Inventory reached 9,521, of which 2,839, or 29.82% were over 90s.

Monday there were 79 new listings and 211 sales, for a sell/list of 267.09%.

Friday there were 83 new listings and 113 sales, for a sell/list of 136.14%.

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118 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

118 responses to “Friday, Monday and Tuesday Numbers

  1. -A-

    Truly impressive sales/list ratio.

    Do you Realtors think it’s because we are getting closer to the Olympics, and everyone is rushing to live here so that they can get good seats?

    Or because of the manufacturing slowdown, everyone in Eastern Canada is moving here?

  2. News Flash

    A: “Yeah, Rob, Numbers please”

    You asked for them…

    “Inventory reached 9,521…sell/list of 100%…267.09%….of 136.14%”

    Them are some painful numbers. It looks like a lump of coal for Christmas for you.

    “Do you Realtors think it’s because we are getting closer to the Olympics, and everyone is rushing to live here so that they can get good seats?”

    Good point…except we won’t see the “good seats” rush until later in 2008.

    “Or because of the manufacturing slowdown, everyone in Eastern Canada is moving here?”

    Not everyone is moving here…just the ones with lots of cash.

  3. robchipman

    -A-

    When you say “you Realtors”, do you mean you want to know our collective, monolithic, industry-wide, marketing scam thought? Or our actual individual opinions? Or do you still not care about where we see the market going? Or do you only want us to choose A or B? Is this what they meant by rhetorical question?

    The obvious answer is that demand is still strong, and supply is restricted. More people buy at this time of year than list, and we’re in a hot market. Sales today can result from listings signed 5 weeks ago. Listings signed today mean you’re likely cramping your Christmas holiday.

  4. -A-

    Settle down. I just wanted a professional opinion.

    You guy remind me of Pavlo’s dogs. You know the famous conditioning experiment, where the doggie treat was paired with the ringing of a bell.

    Subsequently the dogs began to salivate at the sound of the bell even if no doggie treat was given.

    I guess you pros are so used to me being slightly impolite, that your defenses go up as soon as you see my posts.

  5. blueskies

    ROYAL LePAGE……………………+4%

    CMHC ………………………………+9%

    B.C. Real Est Ass…………………. +8%

    RE/MAX……………………………. +7%

    Credit Union Central B.C………. +5%

    predictions from REIC….total crapshoot
    from keeping up to inflation to infinity and beyond

  6. blueskies

    just read the first paragraph…..

    gotta wipe the beer from my keyboard!

    http://tinyurl.com/yswndc

  7. Popeye

    Something the Bears should watch for in the coming year 2008

    (Note: If you are one of those “Bulls”, go to the next blog. Nothing here will make any sense to you anyway.)

    When the 2008 RE season begins in earnest–probably on the first sunny Sunday before the March 20 vernal equinox–I surmise total inventory will easily top 15,000. Whatever the real numbers actually are, you can bet the REBGV will deliberately scuttle the numbers downward to whatever they like. (I emailed them a while ago about their funny math but got no reply.)

    Whenever the “Board” comes to mind, I think of the shady staff on a used-car parking lot rolling back odometers. What the REBGV eventually reports in the spring will be useless. At the same time they expect their realtors to adhere to the principles of ethical behavior and full disclosure.

    So, in late May watch for incentives, especially in the condo market. Incentives usually start with a key chain or fridge magnet, worth $.69 or so, then balloon all the way up to all-paid vacations to Hawaii, and more. Translation: nothing is moving, prices are falling.

    Next, check the web for the BC Real Estate Council statistics on the number of active realtors in the field. By November I predict about a third will quit their jobs and look for other work, and this is probably the best sign of a steep downturn. Maybe even Rob will throw in the towel.

    Lastly, ignore the newspapers like the Vancouver Sun–that so-called public guardian of all that is good and decent, but mainly concerned with its own bottom line. This paper is shilling for the industry. Bank economists are just as bad. Any economist would be fired on the spot if he spooked the market with negative numbers. Banks are in the business of making money by steadily writing up mortgage contracts.

    2008 will be the year when the bulls are finally castrated.

  8. zed

    just like mc dicks, i’m lovin’ it

  9. zed

    …the numbers that is

  10. Strataman

    Rob”The obvious answer is that demand is still strong, and supply is restricted. More people buy at this time of year than list, and we’re in a hot market. Sales today can result from listings signed 5 weeks ago. Listings signed today mean you’re likely cramping your Christmas holiday”
    I agree! Didn’t expect anything but these kind of numbers. They relly don’t mean much either way. Why don’t we all just have some fun, until next year. Besides I think the international credit crunch is far more important and will in the end be the only thing we remember about 2008, real estate will be a footnote! Happy holidays!

  11. deb

    doesn’t that 2,839, or 29.82% were over 90s. have some significance though?

  12. blueskies

    in the end be the only thing we remember about 2008, real estate will be a footnote!

    exactly! it’s a global credit bubble and the RE bubble is just artifact… an infected pimple on a rat’s ass.

  13. Geezer

    Popeye wrote:
    “So, in late May watch for incentives, especially in the condo market. Incentives usually start with a key chain or fridge magnet, worth $.69 or so, then balloon all the way up to all-paid vacations to Hawaii, and more. Translation: nothing is moving, prices are falling.”

    Yeah! It’s already started. That big development on Kingsway is offering trips to Hawaii.

    Oh! Just a minute, that was in 2005. Now let’s see, what has happened to prices since then?

    Hmmm.

  14. AmPa

    Those numbers are crazy. Another concrete proof that Vancouver real estate prices will never ever EVER!! go down.

    There is such a thing as a slippery slope. But there is also such a thing as a slippery incline. Vancouver RE market has fallen into a very rare economic phenomena where the prices will now escalate forever exponentially. We have passed the point of no return.

    Buy now you fools, or you’ll regret it. You think Vancouver is expensive now? Wait until 2012 when $1200 per squarefoot in Surrey Whalley will be considered cheap!

    MWHAHA! I love rising prices.

  15. Snick

    More bogus numbers.

    Who LISTS just before Christmas? Very few, I’m sure. Any sales would distort those very few new listings.

    Thus, MORE skewed numbers from a skewed mind.

  16. blueskies

    will now escalate forever exponentially.

    ummm 4% predicted is not exponential…

    what you smokin’?!

  17. Snick

    So, in other words, get back to your cold calling.

  18. Strataman

    deb; “doesn’t that 2,839, or 29.82% were over 90s. have some significance though?” I think (correct me if I’m wrong Rob) that we have been close to that level at this time of year, within a few percent. Most people who do not have to sell or those that don’t wan’t to be bothered over the holidays don’t list. The few that do are basically pricing to high on spec, and don’t care if they sell. I don’t see a lot of price reductions on over 90’s on MLS, even seen some increases after they sit for six months. Those listings are not desperate. The one’s that want to sell will wait for spring, with dollar signs in their eyes. (Counting on 15% over todays price effective next April 08)!

  19. Another 15%?

    Bwahahaha.

  20. beaner

    top floor Burnaby (29th floor) – view of Vancouver, richmond, mountains. 1BR + den, just under 800 sq ft. 345K. Over priced?

  21. beaner

    very central location (sky train, metrotown, etc), 6 yrs old.

  22. blueskies

    1BR + den, just under 800 sq ft. 345K. Over priced?

    $430 sq. ft.asking
    potential rent = $2.00 sq. ft./ month
    $1600 monthly rent x 100 = $160,000
    Vancouver premium = x2 $320,000
    just slightly over max value
    offer?

  23. blueskies

    motivated vendor?
    offer $280K

  24. beaner

    this seems to be relatively reasonable given the craze of the Burnaby condo market. New buildings in the Middlegate area, in the middle of nowhere, are asking $520/sq ft. Interestingly, given the proximity to Metrotown and trains, what premium do we put on the proximity factor, and that it is a top-floor unit. How much of a dip should we expect to hit Burnaby in the coming years?

  25. blueskies

    Burnaby and New West are being over built in relation to incoming population, at some point there will be a significant inventory overhang.

    $250 sq. ft. offer would be reasonable 🙂

  26. Annon

    For sure disappointing numbers for the bears.

  27. Anonymous

    I am sure no bears are loosing any sleep over these numbers. Its December. This year in the spring when prices kept on growing… that was painful I admit. lol

  28. Newcomer

    >>ummm 4% predicted is not exponential…<<

    It is if it holds constant. Any non-declining rate of increase is exponential. People have a hard time realizing that. They think that if we keep going at, for example, 4% per annum, that would be a linear increase because the rate of increase does not change. For a linear increase, however, you have to have a decreasing rate of increase. If you have a constant rate of growth, that growth will be relative to a continuously growing base, and will therefore, increase exponentially. Exponential growth in unsustainable, which is one of the many reasons why a market cannot grow at a constant rate.

  29. Domus

    December and January are random number generators. This is the only time when I don’t get upset with Rob for delaying the updates.

  30. Jeff

    Clearly people don’t list in December. The active listings continue to sell, expire, and get cancelled… leading to lower inventory.

    There is nothing for the bulls or bears to read into here.

    Wait until February to see where the numbers are going.

  31. Popeye

    So Geezer, you own a condo, do ya? Trouble selling it?

  32. coco

    “Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm, reported a fourth-quarter loss of $3.56 billion, the first in the company’s history, after $9.4 billion of writedowns on mortgage-related investments.”

    (Canadian banks are invested in Morgan Stanley through their commercial paper)

  33. coco

    Billions of dollars of cash injections, lowering of interest rates, credit crunch woes, subprime writedowns, forestry layoffs, logging bankruptcies, certainly not all is well with the economy if all these things are happening. It is not all doom and gloom, but to state housing prices will rise to the moon and ignore economic problems on the horizon is the opposite extreme.

  34. coco

    By 2005, Canadians owed $1.16 for each dollar of disposable income they have in their pocket.

    The median debt-load for families rose 38% from $32,300 in 2002 to $44,500 in 2005 and lines of credit more than doubled — to 9% of total debt — during the same period.

    (You have to wonder what the debt rates are in 2007, if people could handle any economic shocks… a slowing economy with job losses, higher interest rates, etc. etc. We have been in this long expansion period and people have become complacent with our good economy and that things will carry on as normal forever. Although, history shows us otherwise. )

  35. coco

    CIBC Credit Risk Looms

    http://tinyurl.com/287dye

    (3.5 billion of subprime writedowns on the line)

  36. tqn

    “me being slightly impolite”

    you know it, your mama know it, why didnt any one of you fix it? 🙂 Or you are just so busy being sour about the stage of the market!

    Opps, please dont report to the authority that I just dropped by to say hi.

  37. An

    “Who LISTS just before Christmas? Very few, I’m sure. Any sales would distort those very few new listings.

    Thus, MORE skewed numbers from a skewed mind.”

    So I guess since more listings come in the spring, those numbers are skewed too? Should we discount them as well?

  38. WoW

    SoCal prices have fallen more than 10% this year. Vancouver remains up for the year. I remain astounded. It will be interesting to see how things fare now that London is falling, and credit is drying up in China, which could impact the buying power of lux homebuyers from that market – perhaps.
    Interesting times.

  39. robchipman

    Popeye:

    I think the Board is honest, and I’m curious how they would be able to scuttle the numbers. But, on the off chance that you may have stumbled on a conspiracy, let’s investigate and expose it.

    -Each constituent part of the whole is widely available.
    -Each listing, sale or price reduction requires the participation of at least three signatories, and often more.
    -Each one has a verifiable address.
    -The information is reported daily.

    You’re welcome to come and look at the stuff, and verify it. Same condition as always: you have to report the truth to the blog.

    Two very different approaches: ignore the Board, the Sun, the government (That’s who the BC Real Estate Council is), and the banks, and go with your uninformed opinion instead, or, critically examine the evidence and report the results.

    Snick:

    Are you saying you agree with me and Strataman?

    You said: “Who LISTS just before Christmas? Very few, I’m sure. Any sales would distort those very few new listings”

    I said:

    “More people buy at this time of year than list…”

    Strataman said:

    “I agree!”

    So, we’re all saying the same thing. The interesting thing is your conclusion:

    “MORE skewed numbers from a skewed mind.”

    You got yourself, didn’t you! 🙂

  40. hello

    “Domus
    December 19, 2007 at 12:31 am
    December and January are random number generators. This is the only time when I don’t get upset with Rob for delaying the updates”.

    i like this.

  41. Priced Out

    “SoCal prices have fallen more than 10% this year. Vancouver remains up for the year. I remain astounded.”

    The damage started in a few place like Boston and Florida two years ago. Then spread to other places like Phoenix, Ohio and some parts of California over the next year or so. Finally it fully engulfed California in the last year (and even reached New York City and Washington DC in the East). Seattle and other far points have finally started to fall. Calgary is now falling, Vancouver is next. It keeps getting closer and closer.

  42. anonymous

    “SoCal prices have fallen more than 10% this year. Vancouver remains up for the year. I remain astounded.”

    Its all about the financing.

    Very little subprime exposure in Canada, that’s why Douglas Porter & other economists continue to expect us to carry on unabated while they anticipates the US to struggle further.

    Non-issue for us.

  43. robchipman

    Anonymous:

    The sub-prime problem will be less important for us in terms of exotic mortgages and teaser rates re-setting and causing grief and foreclosures. However, the wider sub-prime fallout, and pain it causes the US and the rest of the world, is something that we can’t ignore. It will be a new day indeed if a US slowdown doesn’t have an impact on us.

    What we should be looking for, from a RE investment POV, is a minimal correction in prices while rents make up some ground. The numbers are too out of whack right now. However, the other implications of that scenario may not be too pleasant (stagflation might accomplish it, right? Do we want to see that?)

  44. WoW

    So – if I read you correctly, if US prices fall by 99.99%, and we have no sub-prime, as you put it (all high coverage mtgs, etc.), then we are immune to anything happening elsewhere?
    OK, that makes sense.
    Thanks for coming out.

  45. anonymous

    I don’t remember saying the US prices were going to fall 99.99%

    Thanks for putting words in my mouth.

  46. anonymous

    Also, are you upset with Douglas Porter or any other economist who are saying that?

    If you re-read what I wrote I was just echoing their sentiments.

    I think they’re a bit more informed than some guy named WoW on a blog.

    Thanks for coming out though.

  47. whitebear

    Those wishing for a crash had better watch and long for the well-being (bad-welling should I say) of canadian banks. So far, CIBC showed the first sign of crack.

    http://quote.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=cm.to+bmo.to+bns.to+td.to+ry.to&t=2y

    Unless other banks follow suit, next year will be another stellar year for Vancouver (esp. the West side).

  48. Marko

    does anyone know where to find current statistics on mortgage applications in Canada?

    The US Mortgage Bankers Association seems to put out monthly updates on national mortgage application stats but the only comparable info I could find was through CMHC, which was 6 months old.

    The online canequity.com stats definitely show a fall in online applications in BC from June 2007 to October 2007, compared to same months last year. But that is just the applications going through their system, which would not necessarily be indicitive of all mortgage applications nationally.

    I think these are important stats because they offer an objective look at demand (applications) and possibly some insight into whether credit is tightening up in Canada (approvals). Frustrating that our statistics are so far behind.

  49. Anonymous

    whitebear wrote:

    Unless other banks follow suit, next year will be another stellar year for Vancouver (esp. the West side).

    Whitebear,

    For the uninformed, can you provide additional details why it will be another stellar year for Vancouver and the West side?

  50. deb

    I am up on Sunshine Coast looking at some places. A new house was listed today. Why, do you think, would someone list their place today of all days, so close to Xmas.

  51. robchipman

    deb:

    Lots of reasons why someone would list now, so close to Christmas. Get the paperwork out of the way, we’re leaving on holiday and can leave the Realtor with the keys, we don’t celebrate Christmas, etc. That said, those guys are in the minority.

    Kristi:

    Nice turnaround.

  52. -A-

    Rob wrote to Popeye:
    “You’re welcome to come and look at the stuff, and verify it. Same condition as always: you have to report the truth to the blog.”

    It’s up to you Popeye, but I most certainly would not entertain the idea of going to Rob’s office.
    I would be concerned about personal safety. I don’t think Rob has violent tendencies, but the company he keeps on this blog certainly evokes fear in me.

    Just read the earlier comments by the uncivilized brutes such as Tqn, and Newsflah.

    You can just almost feel the zephyr of venom spewing through the screen.

    Nasty folks, and you know there is something to be said about the company one keeps.

  53. domus

    Here is an update on California:

    “California’s again the worst housing market, by the math of First American LoanPerformance. For October, our Golden State clocked in with a 14.83% loss in a year, followed by Florida (-11.01%), Nevada (-10.97%), and Arizona (-9.43%). California’s been at the bottom of FALP’s heap since April.”

  54. robchipman

    -A-

    I think we already know how you feel about truth and verification 🙂

  55. peter

    Credit crunch finally came to Canada. I can’t wait to see the real estates bubble burst in Vancouver. It’s going to be spectacular! It only take a 50% drop to wipe out a 100% gain! Keep it up!

  56. Snick

    Er…don’t try to spin anything around on me. I’m COMMENTING on your skewed numbers, not your useless opinions.

  57. News Flash

    A: “I most certainly would not entertain the idea of going to Rob’s office.
    I would be concerned about personal safety. I don’t think Rob has violent tendencies, but the company he keeps on this blog certainly evokes fear in me.”

    You sound like a wimp.

  58. beaner

    It must be said, consumer optimism (the x factor) in Vancouver’s economy does not seem to be there. Too much global turmoil and uncertainty, the continued bullrun in the real estate markets are perhaps shifting how consumers are viewing the future. While I don’t judge things based on individual opinions, choosing rather to analyse data on an daily basis, one observation does make me wonder. Federal government employee salaries are generally set to the 30th percentile of but very few that i know of can afford in the current market. From my experience, private sector employees at a similar level make considerably less.

    This is purely anecdotal, but speaks to the challenges of housing in this city.

  59. blueskies

    consumer optimism (the x factor) in Vancouver’s economy does not seem to be there.

    if the consumer (owner/occupier) does not show up in the new year will the speculators step in to carry the load?

    some estimates place speculators at 50% of some developments, can this be increased to 60 or 70% to maintain the status quo?

  60. beaner

    As I had said in a previous post, what worries me in particular are the prices per square foot in urban areas outside the Vancouver’s urban core. Price per square foot for new units in the middlegate area is in the 500-550 per square foot range which seems quite high. With many of these buildings focused on first time and younger buyers I question where the market is finding money, unless parents are drawing down their own home equity and other savings to lend to their children. I doubt that this area is being marketed to international and recreational living buyers.

  61. -A-

    Exhibit a:
    Newsflash retort:
    ” You sound like a wimp”

    Clearly a response indicative of the decadent types whom Rob Chipman associates with and it confirms the old adage that our associates tells much about who we are.

    It is disappointing that Rob did not admonish the offender in any way, yet he is so quick to growl at the slightest criticism which he interprets as a credibility challenge.

    I think this blog administrator needs to have a good stare at the mirror and ask some profound questions around integrity.

  62. Jeff

    The olympic card has been played… investors who are late to the party will think it’s still there to play… it’s not, the smart money will be out by year end.

  63. “some estimates place speculators at 50% of some developments, can this be increased to 60 or 70% to maintain the status quo?”

    I just mentioned the other day, a marketer named Belling, I think, already mentioned recent Central Surrey developments have sold to 72% ‘investors’. They are long term, he said, so of course it’s all good.

  64. blueskies

    the smart money will be out by year end.

    i’m assuming year end ’07, 2 weeks hence

  65. vanreal

    I think Snick is just another name for Tulipmania. I wondered what happened to him.

  66. blueskies

    Tulipmania. I wondered what happened to him.

    he’ll be buying your distressed realty at pennies on the dollar……. tick tock tick tock 🙂

  67. Jeff

    tick tock… 12 days…

    Listings are going to explode next year as soon as the real shit hits the fan… economists and bankers are trying to protect their bonuses and their fellow banking buddies bonuses… I know because I worked in corporate financial planning.

    Next year is going to be so nasty… watch for the stock markets to drop 1000+ points in January, CIBC will be bought by perhaps Manulife, the US will fall into recession, etc, etc, etc.

    tick tock… 12 days.

  68. -A-

    Vanreal:

    “Tulipmania. I wondered what happened to him.”

    I sometimes wonder that myself, and then I remember how he used to torment Rob and his gang of thugs with intellectually powered truth, and somehow he has disappeared.

    Another reason not to visit Rob and his thugs on their turf.

    Tick Tock,Tick Tock

  69. blueskies

    CIBC will be bought by perhaps Manulife

    100% or just a stake at a decent discount?

  70. WoW

    I think investors who bought Nortel at $120 were, puportedly, long-term investors. Perhaps, in the long-term, they will make a profit for holding it. Or their great grandchildren.

    Jeff – you think the Vancouver RE market starts to capitulate in January ’08? Do you think we see more front page negative news in the local press? As much of this market is based on psychology (vs. fundamentals – Rob, would you agree?), I feel that a bunch of negative press would really get the ball rolling (downhill) – that said, given the advertising dollars from RE, I couldn’t really blame them (editors) for not wanting to go that direction until they pretty much have to.

    Rob – do you think we see negative front page RE stories on Vancouver (in the Vancouver Sun) this spring (?)- I’m talking about the big red down arrows and all of that – you get the picture.

    thanks.

  71. blueskies

    do you think we see negative front page RE stories on Vancouver (in the Vancouver Sun) this spring (?)

    this could spook the speculators, negative MSM to counter the REIC rah rah stuff…..

    our own version of “the running of the bulls” at least toward the nearest exit…….

    we live in interesting times!

  72. $fromA$ia

    I’d like to see another crack in the market.

    Anyone?

    B.S.? Got any Crack on R.E.

  73. blueskies

    4% growth prediction for ’08…..
    that oughta qualify as a crack…..

  74. Chinko

    Bears keeps calling from 05′ till now and STILL calling for the market to go the opposite way. Good stamina folks…keep calling……cos as long as you’re calling, the market keeps surging. When you folks decide to join the bulls, that’s when I exit the market. Ha!

  75. domus

    Rob:

    does newflash have any professional or personal connection with you?
    I hope not; but if he does you should reprimand his behavior.

    The tone is the same of a bully in a schoolyard. If he is an associate of yours, then you better rethink how the business is run. If he is not, well, just a rant……

  76. CC

    all the ad hominum attacks on rob are banal and tiresome. can’t you pathetic gripers simply debate rob on the merits of his arguments.

    what kind of life must one have to spend one’s time consistently lobbing inane and ineffectual virtual verbal grenades at someone from the bushes? it is the modern equivalent of nicky nicky nine door. it also makes it difficult to wade through and pick out the substantive comments on the site.

    i ask you…please desist. or at least take a break for a few weeks or months. And before you come up with any clever conspiracies…I have no affiliation or knowledge of anyone on this site. i’m just curious about real estate and the market.

  77. domus

    “i’m just curious about real estate and the market.”

    I am as well. It is just unpleasant to have to occasionally see bullies taking advantage of anonimity.

    I personally never insulted anyone in my long time visiting this form. Even in my most passonate “exchanges” with Rob I have never resorted to cheap insult. It seems to me that, whoever the guys who calls himself nesflash is, he is definitely lowering the level of the conversation.
    I know I will get some angry and impolite answer for my opinion, but I think someone has to raise the issue.
    Having said that, I am more than happy to discuss RE with the civilized contributors of this blog….

  78. domus

    ah, CC I forgot to mention: it is ad hominem rather than ad hominum……

  79. Snick

    “Having said that, I am more than happy to discuss RE with the civilized contributors of this blog….” – domus

    I concur. Heartily.

  80. Popeye

    “you have to report the truth to the blog”.

    Rob, in answer your reprimand, I stand by my statements that the Board manipulates numbers and they have a vested interest in doing so. Even the Better Business Bureau can’t reproach them because they aren’t really selling anything, just expressing an opinion. This applies to the mainstream press, banks, and even the CMHC, and collectively are free to participate in our Alice in Wonderland real estate market with their musings. Everything they say and everything they write implicitly comes to us with no promises, warranties, or guarantees. In other words, anyone making investment decisions based on what they hear or read, do so at their own risk.

  81. blueskies

    Everything they say and everything they write implicitly comes to us with no promises, warranties, or guarantees. In other words, anyone making investment decisions based on what they hear or read, do so at their own risk.

    same way i treat talking heads on tv…
    caveat emptor

  82. abc

    ” You sound like a wimp”

    This type of schoolyard bullying gives an indication of a psychological condition, a condition perhaps induced by the individual’s financial risk profile.

  83. blueskies

    induced by the individual’s financial risk profile.

    balls to the wall leveraged RE investing… 🙂

  84. Jeff

    I think it’s time for a major bank to be bought entirely by a life financial services company.

    CIBC might need to be bailed out by my prediction Manulife.

  85. Jeff

    WoW:
    I think “given the advertising dollars from RE” that they will over-report the downside because the worse things get the more Realtors need to advertise. I believe the newspapers make more revenue on RE advertising in a downturn than in a boom. What Realtor has needed to advertise in the last 5 years?

  86. robchipman

    Popeye:

    First things first: I didn’t reprimand you. I disagreed with your opinion. You know the old story: being entitled to an opinion doesn’t make the opinion credible. So, by all means stand by what you say, and express your opinions. But you should be prepared to have their credibility questioned from time to time.

    You’ve expressed one opinion that casts the validity of Board numbers into doubt (“…you can bet the REBGV will deliberately scuttle the numbers downward to whatever they like”). Again, express your opinion as much as you like. So far that particular opinion has come across as blatantly misinformed. That could be a communication problem (you’re not expressing it well or I’m not understanding it), or it could simply be that you don’t know what you’re talking about. I think its the latter, and I’m happy to provide you with more information so that you can become more informed.

    That’s a win-win for me, and frankly, I think its a win-win for you. If your current position is misinformed you can learn something and change. If your current position is correct then I’ll learn something and change. How can you lose, really? I think the process would be good for the rest of the blog readers as well.

    (The offer to verify numbers is open to anyone: come and look at how the numbers are generated and report the truth that you find to the blog).

    -A-

    Your problem with newsflash is yours, not mine. I am concerned when people challenge my credibility (and I think that’s normal) and I’m not too concerned when someone calls you a wimp (and I think that’s normal, too).

    Do you really think calling someone a wimp on the internet is the same as being a schoolyard bully? (yes or no answer).

    My problem with you is your disdain for the truth, your baseless allegations and your flip flopping.

    You deal with newsflash as you see fit. Don’t get too mean spirited. I’ll deal with you as I see fit. Fair enough?

    WoW:

    If you restrict fundamentals to cash flow supported value, then this market isn’t supported by those, so must be supported by something else. Is that something else psychology? No doubt a good part of it is. However, I don’t think its a two ingredient, either/or scenario.

    Do I think we’ll see negative articles in the Sun this spring? Man, you don’t give up, do you! 🙂 We’ll see those stories once the market’s turned, and not before. I don’t know when that will be.

    Domus:

    “does newflash have any professional or personal connection with you?”

    I’m surprised that you’re the one who’d publicly lend credence to -A-‘s transparent approach, but, you asked so I’ll answer (like always, and unlike many others): I don’t know who most people on this blog are, including newsflash. I can tell you that he’s the only one posting from his IP (unlike -A-‘s IP, which has a long history of multiple handles). Again, you can drop by and verify this any time, or we can meet at a mutually acceptable location with interent access and you can check. (Like you, I recognize that we can have spirited exchanges while maintaining some level of mutual respect, and I appreciate it – thanks).

  87. robchipman

    Jeff:

    What did Mencken say about the nature of the news business? Buy newsprint at 10 cents a pound and re-sell it at 20 cents a pound? 🙂

  88. domus

    rob:

    “Do you really think calling someone a wimp on the internet is the same as being a schoolyard bully? (yes or no answer)”

    YES.

    By the way, I am glad that you have no association with Newsflash. Having said that, I think that also the bears should tone down their verbal attacks: one thing is disagreement, another thing is abuse.

    You know, Rob, sooner or later i will pop by your office. I am not sure I will ever tell you who I am, but I might use your services when I think this market is back to something normal.

  89. aaronbest

    beaner said…”top floor Burnaby (29th floor) – view of Vancouver, richmond, mountains. 1BR + den, just under 800 sq ft. 345K. Over priced?”

    Not entirely. I’d say you’re within $10,000 either way. If you priced it around $329,000 you may generate multiples.

  90. Newcomer

    I have to say, Rob is one of the most fair-minded and unflappable Internet hosts I have ever seen. And, yes, his clear honesty and his ability to look at things as they are would make me likely to use him once the bottom has come.

  91. Christine

    I really have to concur with CC on his/her sentiments – and allow me to offer a suggestion to some of Rob’s readers. Why not take a little break from all this blog commenting, for a few weeks or months, and just chill and wait for things to evolve? I unsubscribed from all off the Van Real Estate blogs about a month ago, and it’s done wonders for my peace of mind and spare time. Moreover, you will return with a fresh perspective. As nothing particularly news-worthy is happening here at the moment, it’s a good moment for a little vacation.

    I do believe a turn-around of the market is in the works, but as a bear who truly doesn’t plan on purchasing here I’m much happier bowing out of all this bickering and just “watching the skies”, as they say. Checking in here occasionally and reading all this same-old-same-old banter is just futher validating my decision.

    Happy Holidays everyone.

  92. robchipman

    Domus:

    Don’t take offense or mark me down as overly insensitive, but equating name calling on the internet with physical abuse in the schoolyard seems, to me, to diminish the importance of the latter in order to increase the importance of the former.

    -A- throws out psychopathic thug and various other insults with abandon, but then complains when someone calls him a wimp. You’ve got to wonder how seriously he takes the insults directed at him, and how seriously he takes the bully charge (I don’t think he takes it seriously); I think he’s looking for allies in a fight that he’s creating. That’s jmho.

  93. Jeff

    San Diego:
    Down to $440k from $517k, but up from $154k 11-years ago.
    I predict another 30%+ decline.
    Wouldn’t prices need to get back around $300k to be somewhat fundamentally sound?
    http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071218/news_1n18prices.html
    Where do Vancouver average prices need to be to meet fundamentals… $300k for a SFH?

  94. domus

    “equating name calling on the internet with physical abuse in the schoolyard seems, to me, to diminish the importance of the latter”

    It is the attitude which gives me problems. If the internet allowed physical exchanges, no doubts we would get occasional fist fights.
    Moreover, the spiteful tone detracts from the conversation and does not allow a smooth flow of info.

    In my view, you are a bully if you treat other people with contempt and aggressive attitude, not just if you punch them in the face.

  95. domus

    Interesting:

    http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/12/20/mortgages.html

    Dodge lowers the discount rate and banks increase the interest rate…..it must be a serious crisis out there to raise funds.

  96. -B-

    Rob, you should try to see beyond your bias. You often accuse –A- of being blind to the truth, but that is a cheap shot.
    He seems to be a very knowledgeable person, and has called you on your lack of knowledge of Monetary Theory, and I must agree with him.
    You seem to have narrowed it down to inflation vs recession when in fact that is only one of many possible outcomes of monetary intervention.
    In this case the misguided policy adopted by Greenspan, (and Canada only by default) will have a detrimental impact on the economy for years to come.

    One result will be a real estate crash.

  97. -C-

    I agree with A nd B

  98. Jay

    This ridiculous market has caused me to move into the basement at my parents home. 😦

  99. domus

    This is important. Just off Bloomberg

    http://tinyurl.com/278k8x

    So Harper does not want a bail-out. Interest rate spreads are growing all around and healthy Canadian banks are unwilling to lose money for the reckless behavior of others. This is related to the previous post regarding the increase in mortgage rates: I think we are in a for a big one as credit is drying up fast in Canada. We live in iteresting times!

  100. robchipman

    -B-

    I don’t accuse -A- of being blind to the truth. He’s far from that.

    However, he’s had more than one opportunity to establish the true state of a question that he’s posed, and he’s demurred. I think the logical conclusion is that he’s not interested in the truth as much as advancing his opinion. Since he likes the dogs and poker analogy, think of it as me calling his bluff and him folding his cards.

    I haven’t made any pronouncement on monetary policy. I’ve speculated that central banks will choose increased liquidity and the danger of inflation over recession, and I’ve gone no further. Its an ongoing debate on this blog, largely between myself and Coco.

    Monetary policy is a complex subject, and I wouldn’t make the mistake of trying to wrap it up as neatly as some here do with real estate. You, like -A-, obviously understand it much more than I, evidenced by your comment that Greenspan was misguided, and that a real estate crash will be the result. I can only wish I had your clear vision of both the past and the future. 🙂

    Can you describe my bias? (I’m sure that will be good!) I like to call -A- because he combines foolish statements with insults like psychopath, dog, thug, and intellectual gimp, and he generally backs off and tries to come at me from another direction. I wait (no doubt in vain) for the day that he can actually muster an argument that he’ll stand up for.

    Over to you 🙂

    Domus:

    “In my view, you are a bully if you treat other people with contempt and aggressive attitude, not just if you punch them in the face”.

    I’d tend to agree (although some would blur the lines between “agressive attitude” and “spirited debate”), but I still can’t equate newsflash calling -A- a wimp with physical schollyard bullying. There may not be a difference of kind here, but there is a difference of degree.

    I’m also surprised that you’d give -A- a free pass (dogs, thugs, gimps, pimps, chimp, moral failures, hypocritical, fast talking, snake oil, cagey peddler, vermin, devious /realtor sociopath clown, sad and dangerous). He gives waaaaay more than he takes, even if he cries louder than most. Whats good for the goose is good for the gander, no?

  101. DaMann

    Can’t believe I’m saying this but Harper’s right. The Gov are not underwriters. I don’t see big plans in place to force the banks to spread profits in record profit years. Finally when the greed bites them in the ass, they should sort themselves out. The harder the hit, the faster the road to recovery.

  102. WoW

    Jeff – how do you see the local market playing out over the first 3-5 months of 2008? thanks. As a married bear, I need some bearish headlines to help keep my better half on-board. She feels that just because we have money, we should buy. I say that getting the money in the first place was the result of prudent investing/savings (and getting on the gold and U3O8 trains early), so why buy something when u think its going to shatter in price? In any event, how do you see things unfolding near-term?

  103. robchipman

    WoW:

    Sorry to jump in, but when you put it that way, point out ROI – it not only means return on, but also return of. Capital preservation is very important. For a guy in your position I think, on balance, waiting at least a couple months should be no problem, and that’s not even taking into account your particular interests or characteristics. I wouldn’t be surprised at price drops in December and January, a la last year. A lot of the ABCP issue will have shaken out by then and we’ll have a better idea if its all smoke and no fire or whether its something very real.

  104. Snick

    “Newcomer
    December 20, 2007 at 11:49 am
    I have to say, Rob is one of the most fair-minded and unflappable Internet hosts I have ever seen. And, yes, his clear honesty and his ability to look at things as they are would make me likely to use him once the bottom has come.”

    You really must be new.

    This guy is the master of spin and Orwellian “blackwhite”.

  105. Honestly disappointed

    Rob:
    Here we go again, doing what you do best… launch into a condescending attack, while contorting the diatribe into self adulation.
    -A-

  106. deb

    A christmas offer – saw a place today on Sunshine Coast. It has gone up 10% in the last 6 months, but it is also on offer at Xmas. Quite nice, how low do you offer for lowball?

    Thanks

  107. blueskies

    how low do you offer for lowball

    2001 price + 4% inflation compounded yoy to ’07…… standard bear metric

  108. -A-

    Blueskies, be on the lookout for run away inflation and a slowing economy.

    Yes, the specuvestors greed will be punished.

  109. blueskies

    be on the lookout for run away inflation

    at the first hint of resurgent inflation BoC will be jacking up interest rates to slow economy….

    we will have inflation problems from increasing energy costs, is it possible to mitigate this…. don’t think so.

  110. robchipman

    -A-

    Glad to be of service! True to form, you’re coming up with yet another clever name, and changing the subject.

    Seriously, though, you complain when newsflash writes that you sound like a wimp and isn’t admonished. Is it fair that you use an extensive list of insults without sanction, yet complain that newsflash gets away with behaviour that is demonstrably less offensive than yours? How do you square that circle? Invoke the Ally McBeal defence? 🙂

  111. -A-

    Any possible stimulus the Central bankers could offer has already been spent frivolously.

    Perhaps the politicians will go back to fiscal policy abuse, and create jobs by building new roads and ghettos?

    I can just see it now, build a government housing project in Whistler, or some variation of, and kill several birds with one stone.

  112. Anonymous

    Not sure who’s buying in Vancouver these days.

    Rich guys didn’t get rich by overpaying for things.

    Decent income families ($100,000 per year), with 25% downpayment would be stretched making monthly mortgage payments.

    Personally know of few young couples earning over $100,000 combined incomes say forget Vancouver, and packing up moving to Toronto.

    I have thought of cashing in on my house in Vancouver and moving to Toronto.

  113. Newcomer

    People are trading up or buying with cash from their parents, who got it in part through RE appreciation.

    If I have a house worth 100K and you have a house worth 150 K and Rob has a house worth 200 K, and the market doubles, I can sell my house for 200 K and only have to take out a 100K mortgage to buy your house for 300 K, you can also buy Rob’s house at 400 K with just a 100K loan, or Rob can stay where he is, and borrow against the new equity in his 400 K house, and lend it to his kids so that they can buy my 200 K house.

    You don’t need rich people for expensive RE sales to occur, you just need people who think its a good idea to keep buying.

  114. Priced Out

    I went Christmas shopping last night at 8pm. Lots of parking at the mall, and friendly, attentive staff in the stores. But I still felt a little lonely at times.

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