Bear Threat-o-Graph

I found this on C/L housing discussion forum. I’m sure it will bring some smiles to a few faces around here.

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34 Comments

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34 responses to “Bear Threat-o-Graph

  1. WoW

    Oh, you warm the heart of this tried and true contrarian….thanks.

    Herds go over cliffs.

  2. blueskies

    it’s a buyers market…. why aren’t the buyers out buying?…. pertinent question du-jour.

  3. deb

    thank you. That was fun.

  4. blueskies

    actually waiting for the prices to hit zero may work…. it just requires patience, lots of it.

  5. Domus

    What a load of nonsense that article is. Zero is not an option, a substantial cut in the order of 40% in real terms is instead what we are talking about (and observing in several places in the US, including California). Vancouver will tank badly in the next 12 months. Not adjust: tank (meaning an adjustment larger than 10% in nominal terms). It will be fast.

  6. blueskies

    given that some of the paper backing this RE is worth .11 to .26 cents on the dollar then the actual RE holdings could drop to that…close to zero 🙂

  7. Marko

    Very funny article. Of coarse the realtor is just promoting demand for his product. Its what almost every realtor and realtor supported organization does. I wouldn’t look to the automobile dealers or their associations for objective information on the whether cars are priced fairly or whether cars are good for the environment. But yeah, in this housing market its nice to watch the r/e captains south of the boarder talk up the sunny weather while the ship sinks.

    Just a question. Notice that the percentage of over 90s keeps creeping up while inventory keeps creeping down. Any ideas about what this may mean?

    Suppose it could indicate that buyers are being more patient and looking longer or it could just mean that inventory is falling relative to a fixed number of over 90s.

  8. VHB

    “Any ideas about what this may mean?”

    Yes. It’s December.

  9. Tony Danza

    Rob you need a Bear-Threat-o-Meter on your blog, maybe you could have a colour coded Bear warning system (a la Colbert Report) to welcome visitors. I think right now it would signal “green”.

  10. Satv

    Rob Good Catch,

    Long time back a skylab was above to fall after 75 year but exact place was not known and Bears were trying to pile up stuff in trunks by thinking that they will be able to escape on last moment.

    A sales agent in 20th centuary installed a stereo in the vacan’t property, when ever client comes to take a look they were hearing strange voices,his attempt was to convince the owner to bring the price down by showing that there is no offer on given price,his motive was to buy that nice looking home for him self.

    So those are story of fear,a fear of ghost,a fear of bubble,and a fear of terrorism.

    On some point by holding them self bears can effect the demand side but Age and Time can’t be hold by force.debit burden start from there when ever we buy something so anybody who does not hold them self pay off better than those who cheats with the time require them to do.

    As far as price concern ,Vancouver does not show up in the global list,however we can see Calgary on 35th spot and Toronto on 36th spot.

    Vancouver has gazzilions of giga bites space to consume more housing prices so Vancouver got more room to go up and similar view can be felt from the future construction cost which is set up to increase by 11%2008 11%2009.

    We have lots of non residential construction projects which carry the construction train till 2016 till then something else could be figured.
    Important info for buyer after october 2007 gst info

  11. blueskies

    satv: what you are doing is attempting to talk up the market… ummm it ain’t working……

    http://tinyurl.com/2uxrxz

    in his intense, somewhat terrifying introduction: recession, possibly depression; bank failures; exchange controls; housing prices down by 50%; credit card company failures; money market fund dangers; tripling of U.S. jobless numbers; federal bail-outs

  12. Anonymous

    satv

    Happen to Vancouvers giga bites of space, verses long term inducement to the global list. Skylab will discord said stereo on vacant property. And voices only pay rent when trunks fail to open after Age and time debt burden his motive.

  13. Satv

    Blueskies
    Recession,Depression is also a chunk of fear got nothing to do with home owner ship,Issue for individuals is weather you are a home owner or not.When would you like to be?

  14. blueskies

    “Issue for individuals is ” is survival, capital preservation and debt renunciation …..

    get out of debt, accumulate cash and keep your head down….

  15. Satv

    but mortgage debt provide us homes instead of becoming homeless somewhere in life.With the cost of inflation and appreciation mortgage debt is best gamble on the earth than wondering place to place with you $100 suit case.

  16. blueskies

    mortgage debt = debt slave
    house = anchor
    mortgage = alligator

  17. Jeff

    Satv:
    That is actually a good point… “you are a home owner or not”
    Many people try to time markets for financial reasons.
    Others use a buy and hold strategy to build their financial wealth.
    Others just own a home because they want to own a home… regardless of its value.
    I think Rob has also stated that home ownership, for those who are within their financial means, may make sense at any price.

  18. Satv

    “debt slave”
    why do you think like that if debt scare you why don’t you buy cash.
    Slave is something if some one force us to do things,I think renting is also=to slave but in both cases a force of inflation and interest rates are involved to make us choose better option.

  19. Satv

    well said jeff,

    The climactic conclusion of “My Best Friend”

    thanx jeff

  20. blueskies

    a force of inflation and interest rates are involved to make us choose better option

    better? you are tied to a long term depreciating asset…. whatchyagonnado?

  21. Satv

    Blueskies,
    people with common sense does not really need to go that far.

    depreciating asset=fear again nothing to do with rent or ownership.

    Blueskies!it’s ok.
    Chow!

  22. Anonymous

    Satv,

    Your age shows. Recession is just a word to you, something that has not happened in a long time and something you think will never happen again.

  23. Domus

    Rob:

    I don’t know about prices going to zero, but if you want to see how bad is it in the US (and especially in San Diego, home of the fighting realtor of your link) just have a peak to this news (from this evening):

    http://tinyurl.com/yrvrf8

    There was a Brian guy on the previous thread who said something about Vancouver being different from Cleveland: how about San Diego?

  24. -A-

    Satv you are badly needed on the previous thread.

  25. Strataman

    http://tinyurl.com/2o7ep5
    Down down down! We didn’t see this last year. $300 rent drop on brand new townhouse in less then a month. You don’t drop unless your cash strapped! First new townhouse in two years below $2000 in Yaletown (sic). Anybody know what this would have cost at contract?

  26. Newcomer

    If you ask $2250 for a one bedroom with a “den” (read nook) you are going to have to bring your price down. She’s not going to get $1960 either. It’s worth $1300.

  27. Domus

    Yeah, I saw the pics: it looks like the only sun light you are ever going to see in there is the one on TV.
    One bed plus a den for $2000? I know people in Coal Harbor renting 20th floor apartments (2 bed plus den) for 1,700.

    This is quite absurd….

  28. robchipman

    Newcomer:

    I think Strataman is right. I’ve gotten $2,000 for one bed+den/nook/alcove. I’m still not having a big problem renting, but the rental market is certainly more price sensitive, and especially at higher rents (smaller pool of renters).

    Domus:

    20th floor in Coal Harbour 2 bed + den for $1700? They’ve either been there a while, its a crappy place or its under-rented.

  29. Domus

    They have been there 3 and a half years. They have a view (not large, but still a view).

  30. $fromA$ia

    Satv,
    Fear is that country you came from. Canada’s economy runs on immigrants. When house prices go up, fearing immigrants buy in. When house prices correct (not crash) the ones that choose another investment vehicle win.

    ~I agree with Rob though that RE is a good investment, long term that is.

    Timing is more important than choice more than ever now.

  31. blueskies

    no pets?!?!!

    wtf?!?!!

  32. robchipman

    Domus:

    That makes sense. I’ve seen the largest rent run ups this year. It seemed rents lagged sales prices for an extremely long time (that’s just what I saw). If you have been in a place a while you should have good rent.

  33. Tony Danza

    satv, Thank you for making me laugh, laughter is good for you, you may extended my life. Don’t worry satv please keep buying more housing it will only make you richer and richer until the end. But don’t worry if it doesn’t work out I will remember all the laughter and good times you provided and put alms in your cup when I see you at bus stop with sleeping bag when recession closes your warehouse.

  34. BOBBYBEAR

    Apparently in Detroit a house was offered at $29,000 at an auction. Yes he said, there is land under it. And yes the lumber is worth more than the asking price.

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