105 new listings, 111 sales, 36 price changes. Sell/list 105.71%. Inventory dropped to 10,022, while over 90s hit 2,781 (27.75%)
105 new listings, 111 sales, 36 price changes. Sell/list 105.71%. Inventory dropped to 10,022, while over 90s hit 2,781 (27.75%)
Filed under Daily Numbers
The Best Real Estate Anywhere! 
I had never been so wrong. My prediction for below 10,000 inventory was off by more than a month and half.
We will be sub 9000 by February.
25% price y-o-y price increase this time next year.
MWHAHAHAHA!
I took this from April 5, 2007 (since Inventory was similar)..
Inventory in my target area rose today to 10,494, while over 90s dropped slightly, to 1,745, a percentage drop to 16.63%.
Soo… what’s worse, increasing inventory and dropping Over 90’s? Or decreasing inventory and increasing Over 90’s?
Sorry if this has already been beaten to death.. the trend just seems out of whack.
MWHAHAHAHA!
I hope thats not you jumping…they are going to put barricades up on the Lions Gate aren’t they? 🙂
Over 90’s were 32% this time last year: http://rireb.blogspot.com/2006_12_17_archive.html
Rob, I am beginning to look at houses again. I am looking in Richmond, Theres allot of crapola out here and the sellers are expecting primo dollars. I don’t get these back yard do it yourselfers, lousy workmanship and high price. I am waiting for more new listings. Q1 is neigh.
that listing in N. van with the bad foundation looks like it could be a fixed, no? Have you came accross it Rob?
#’s make sense. Sellers and Realtors are letting listings run their course until Dec 31.
Some Realtors will get their Sellers to amend the listing expiry to extend the listing into the new year. Other Realtors will allow the listing to expire and put a fresh new listing on. Some Sellers will allow the listing to expire and go with a new Realtor in the new year.
Any way you slice it. Inventory should decline until the end of the year. And then in January, inventory will rise again.
By April/May we’ll probably be over 13,000.
Rob – how important is Genworth Financial to Vancouver buyers? Do a lot of people use their mortgage insurance rather than CMHC?
I ask because they are not doing so link
Whoops – meant to say ‘ not doing so well’ and then link. You get the idea . . .
CMHC is fighting for market share with these guys?
I would assume us taxpayer types have deeper pockets to support their battle.
changes coming to mortgage markets real soon..stay tuned
The world’s major central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are taking rare coordinated action to calm down global credit markets and smooth out transactions over the end of the year.
beware the ides of december!
http://tinyurl.com/yrxye2
Bank of America stated today that Q4 write-downs of collateralized debt obligations will exceed the $3 billion it previously forecasted.
Washington Mutual Inc. to slash 3,150 jobs
Facing 4th-quarter loss, bank cuts dividend 73% and sets office closures
http://tinyurl.com/2dhuzt
All Canadians could pay a price if banks fail to come up with an agreement to save the troubled sector of the country’s debt market and $300-billion worth of leverage is allowed to unwind in a worst-case scenario, David Dodge, governor of the Bank of Canada, said yesterday.
The central bank governor said “the bath” Canadians will take if the $35-billion market for non-bank asset-backed commercial paper collapses will affect all banks, if the losses balloon due to leverage, credit constricts and borrowing dries up. It is therefore in the interest of all banks to come on board.
http://tinyurl.com/2fzrey
Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert:
http://tinyurl.com/2yswfv
HMV sales decline in Canada.
(Sales in HMV Canada were affected by shoppers crossing the border to the US to benefit from exchange rates)
———————————————–
Weather, fuel hit CP Railway earnings
(earnings to come in at low end of estimate or they may not even make their earnings estimate)
Affordability, crime leave a stain on Vancouver
Calgary’s stunning prosperity gives it top marks, conference board study says.
http://tinyurl.com/2hb4ay
“Kevin Lutz, B.C. mortgage manager for the Royal Bank, said 75 to 80 per cent of his bank’s first-time borrowers in B.C. are taking mortgages with 40-year amortizations, and a higher proportion are coming with less than a 25-per-cent down payment.”
“In Vancouver, Julie Jaggernath, director of education at the Credit Counseling Society, said her office is “a little bit busier than we were last year,” with clients including those who have gotten in over their heads buying property or upsizing their homes.”
“We’re also seeing people spending about 70 per cent of their income on housing and housing-related costs,” Jaggernath said. “That’s a lot.”
A new study is recommending Canada’s lawyers, real estate agents and other self-regulated professions re-examine their rules to ensure they serve the public good and encourage competition.
The study by the Competition Bureau found rules that limit advertising, set prices and restrict who can offer professional services may go too far.
The bureau says such rules can boost prices, limit choice and restrict access to information
consumers need.
http://tinyurl.com/2dn7fh
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=48f02306-27c5-407e-8484-1704ca0c33f3
Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.
For bears, I mean.
I’m shocked at the YoY price moves, and hope we see a reversal of prices now, or I’m in trouble on the homefront!:((
Fraser Valley housing prices have hit an eight-month low. White Rock has seen the biggest decline with the average price change in that area going down more than 16%.
Housing prices dipped 6% in Mission and just over 2% in Surrey. Realtors say the shift is nothing more than a seasonal slump, while market analysts say the downturn could be a sign of rising competition between municipalities.
The average Fraser Valley detached home is still priced 4.9% higher than the average price a year ago at $511,000
Wow,
I guess if they included Fraser Valley declines the article would not have the same impact.
included Fraser Valley declines
not to worry, the declines will be “contained”,
otoh that containment may spread
WoW:
23% may be an error… REBGV is only 12.6%
Ya, I would think weakness would start in the Valley and seep inward – that said, you can’t really create more land (there is some sub-dividing going on, and townhouse/condos, so some more densification) in West Side…which is where I’m buying (if I don’t get priced OUT FOREVER (and EVER))….I’m really surprised by the numbers, as anecdotally I’m hearing more and more and more indications of slipping prices and slowdown (Rob – can you comment on what you are seeing/feeling out there?) – I wonder if the numbers have something to do with using averages vs. median prices? In any event, I find the numbers discouraging, and continue to find no rationale to support current prices…
Bewildering…
Well, if the Mrs. see’s this I’m in the doghouse (I think I can still afford one of those)….I don’t at all get it, as everything I’ve learned about cashflow/value is out the window – reminds me of when I poopoo’d Nortel as it crossed $100, on its way higher – didn’t understand that either.
Question:
“I find the numbers discouraging, and continue to find no rationale to support current prices”…
“which is where I’m buying”…
Answer:
DEMAND.
The fed hatching up the new 40 billion liquidity plan with the BoC, BoE and the Swiss National Bank to ease liquidity problems maybe a pipe dream. Central banks have already thrown billions at this liquidity problem since August and there has been no relief in sight.
VHB:
Hard for me to say, because I generally don’t see, from my position, who provides the insurance for an insured mortgage. Any mortgage broker reading the blog can give you a better idea. Back when we had a realistic amount of foreclosures I used to run across Genworth when we sold/listed their properties. (BTW, GE stock has dropped from around $42 a few weeks ago to the $37 range – GE = GE Capital = Genworth? I believe that’s the connection although I’m going by memory).
A quick look through my foreclosure search didn’t reveal any insurers going to foreclosure, and DOMs are, as a rule, low (as far as f/c go, its still defintely a seller’s market).
WoW (world of warcraft?) wrote…
“Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.”
I don’t know about other RE bears but I love these huge price increases. Just means more pain and a bigger drop when it cycles.
Jeff – yes, of course….yet I can rent for a FRACTION of the cost of ownership…YES, i MISS OUT on POTENTIAL price appreciation (and have – yet I’ve been well served with gold, uranium, oil, wheat – things that I guess I have a better understanding of than housing in terms of basic principles of supply and demand – although I’ve been calling for a crash in the US for 3 years, and that’s happened, in Alberta for 2 years (and that’s happening), and here for 2 years (and that’s NOT happening – and this just happens to be where I live).
Jeff – is it different here???
In any event, I subscribe to the view that its NEVER different, but things can be askew for looong periods of time…
blueskies:
CMHC had a virtual, and very profitable, monopoly over insurance. Private insurers want in, and have been trying to grab CMHC market share. CMHC had big fees and tough rules. The result was that they contributed substantial cash to all the taxpayers by hammering those taxpayers it could get over a barrel. The danger that the taxpayers as a whole will get hammered in the fullness of time is pretty slight. The business is still profitable enough that CMHC wants all of it, despite Genworth, AIG, etc.
Changes coming soon? Where have you been? This competition has led to huge changes already.
“The world’s major central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are taking rare coordinated action to calm down global credit markets and smooth out transactions over the end of the year”.
We predicted that here months ago. REmember coco and I arguing over whether the CBs would opt for the risk of inflation that comes with increased money supply vs. recession? Clearly the CBs think (and feel its beneficial) to opt for inflation and liquidity. Expect lower rates.
I also subscribe to the view that its NEVER different.
I think if people were told there would be 10-15% annual declines year after year for the next 4 years… this is my prediction… then demand would turn to FEAR.
Wait for it.
Coco:
“The study by the Competition Bureau found rules that limit advertising, set prices and restrict who can offer professional services may go too far”.
The Competition Bureau has been deeply involved in real estate, real estate boards and the MLS system for many years. It is a very interesting challenge, that’s for sure, but not a new one.
Jeff:
10%-15% increases year after year can’t be sustained. However, 10%-15% price decreases year after year seem even less sustainable, because their damage (I think) will be even greater. Prices are sticky downward for a reason – it may hurt to pay more that you think is fair, but it absolutley kills to lose money. People will do an awful lot before they let that happen. The bigger the correction I think the shorter the time frame. What is more likely to alst long is a stagnant market (JMHO – nothing more scientific than that).
JEFF – I fully concur. And have made my small fortune (still small) by betting against the crowd when fundamentals merit. One thing I’ve learned (which is impacting my investment approach) is that trends can continue long after fundamentals have turned (whether they’ve weakened, or are just not as attractive due to being fully/over priced in…)….that said, I’m ASTOUNDED by how far we’ve run against fundamentals. I wait.
What is your prediction on timing? Do you see downticks this spring?
“23% may be an error… REBGV is only 12.6%”
23.1% for van west.
BoC (or central banks) is trying to provide more liquidity? Isn’t the problem a real cash problem? Those risky takers (big financial institutes) need real money not more debt/credit. Those credit from central banks, if used, needs to be brought in to their balance sheet and that’s why they have been reluctant. I hope it will always be illegal for central banks to give free money to risk takers. You also know real cash is hard to come by as the last few cash infusions all came from Asian and Middle East countries.
And didn’t we bears see this coming months ago?
“Prices are sticky downward for a reason – it may hurt to pay more that you think is fair, but it absolutley kills to lose money. ”
This is a pretty good explanation, and is also why inventory fails to move. In the end, something has to move, be it wages or prices. In the end it’s “real” prices since rising wages will translate to rising inflation.
VHB: Genworth is just starting to enter the Canadian market and has played a part in CMHC “innovating” their offerings. My prediction is if Genworth becomes cash poor, as they are effectively predicting, they will be much more cautious with who they insure, even in Canada. Also I think Genworth will realise very quickly that real estate is local and so too must be the insurance. I can see it now:
Caller: “Hi Genworth. I’d like to insure a mortgage.”
Genworth representative: “Great! I can do that for you! Where are you calling from?”
Caller: “Edmonton.”
Caller: “Hello….?”
Jeff:
I think Genworth has been around a while (as in, not just starting to enter); I kind of recall selling Genworth foreclosures prior to the current run up (they may have been caled GE Capital then).
The areas I am looking at are all down to 7% appreciation, which I find encouraging. They must be flat/falling since Spring, just like the Fraser Valley. At that rate, I don’t feel bad about not buying last year.
There is now such a huge difference between Vancouver/Burnaby and Coquitlam/Port Moody/New West. Interesting.
“I hope it will always be illegal for central banks to give free money to risk takers. ”
The discount window still has strict collateral guidelines so it’s not really free money. What the banks ARE doing differently is providing anonymity to borrowers as going to the discount window can spook shareholders. It’s like lining up at the food bank and not wanting any of your friends to see.
Also we know for a fact the central banks will do behind-the-scenes agreements with the large banks to prop them up; the goal is to restore confidence to the market but apparently you cannot do this if the public sees the messy and confusing details. Greenspan admitted this in his latest book.
Certainly powerful people will be very wary of disseminating information to “those who cannot understand it”. The law of unintended consequences. Just remember there is a lot more going on than what you read in the headlines.
“I think Genworth has been around a while ”
Oops. You’re right. I was confusing the entrance of other smaller insurers with Genworth, which has been around for decades under other names.
The greater Vancvouer benchmark price ($540671) is still down from Septembers peak ($542500). The west side is also down from the peak at $1,369,693 while September was $1397076. The BOC rate cut theory is still holding and the peak is still in the rear view mirror.
http://www.realtylink.org/hpi/rebgvhpistats.cfm?date=1107&TYPE=buyers
Dyugle – THANK YOU.
The trend is there, I hope it accelerates.
Dyugle,
This is a healthy trends, indicating some small adjustments in prices.
Over longer terms, experts have predicted real estate prices in Greater Vancouver will rise by about 9% in 2008 and 7% in 2009 and 2010.
After that, prices rise inline with inflation (about 2% to 4% per year).
“Over longer terms, experts have predicted real estate prices in Greater Vancouver will rise by about 9% in 2008 and 7% in 2009 and 2010.
After that, prices rise inline with inflation (about 2% to 4% per year).”
I don’t know if this will be the case when
“Kevin Lutz, B.C. mortgage manager for the Royal Bank, said 75 to 80 per cent of his bank’s first-time borrowers in B.C. are taking mortgages with 40-year amortizations, and a higher proportion are coming with less than a 25-per-cent down payment.”
A healthy RE market wouldn’t have to resort to 40 year loan and still yet have less than 25% down payment.
Well if their predictions are correct then 40 year mortgages may not be enough. Maybe they can just create mortgages based on your estimated lifespan. You’ll need a medical examination prior to applying, and be given a mortgage based on your life expectancy. Healthy 20 year old? 60 year mortgage. Where do I sign up?
Dyugle:
“The greater Vancouver benchmark price ($540671) is still down from Septembers peak ($542500). The west side is also down from the peak at $1,369,693 while September was $1397076.”
FWIW, 2006 detached benchmarks topped in September at $659,269, then dropped through October, November, December and January. Then it hit $666,983 in February. Attached benchmarks were similar, but a little stickier on the way down. Apartment benchmark dropped from September through to January as well, and didn’t recover until February.
Strictly speaking, you’re right: the peak is in the rear view mirror. I’m not sure we’re safe to call it a trend yet.
After 40 years its not worth amortizing. May as well go interest only (which is rent at a rate set by the bank; you’re only equity gain is price increase. There is no mortgage paydown).
Rob:
I have to agree with you on prices… they may drop until Jan/Feb… but we have to wait to see if it continues Mar, Apr, May…
This should all make for a very interesting spring market. GV numbers are almost a mirror image of last year…
Will this spring be the same as last year? I think It’s very tough to call at this stage, if you go solely by the numbers than theoretically it should. But, what may make this coming year different is that we will have to deal with some additional downward pressure from the Fraser Valley, the global credit markets, the US market, Canada’s economy slipping, and the media grabbing hold of all this bad news.
“Over longer terms, experts have predicted real estate prices in Greater Vancouver will rise by about 9% in 2008 and 7% in 2009 and 2010. – Bria
“Experts”?
That’s about as meaningful as when The National Enquirer cites “a top doctor” as a “source”.
Don’t be so naive. The market is already in decline.
snick:
4 out of 5 bears agree
My very successful developer friend just moved into a new place, and he is renting…..
I agree that we will trend down till next year. Then what happens is a crapshoot. A recession south of the border will turn this market on a dime. The reporting usually lags the event by 6 months so we will not know if there is a recession till 6 months after it has started and by then it may be over if the recession is as short as the last two.
Leading indicators that point to a recession.
1. Adjusted monetary base is rising at less than 3% for the past 2 years. This is tight monetary policy.
2. The yield curve was inverted from Aug 06 thru April 07. This leads a recession by 12 months so look for one between Aug 07 and April 08.
3. The credit market started to seize up in August 07 right on time.
4. The FED has a panic meeting and slashed the interest rates 50 basis point. They are still on a cutting trend.
5. Earnings for the S&P 500 missed expectations by over 10% and are actually down 9% year over year.
6. Stock market has given a Dow theory sell signal in November. People may discount this as technical analysis but the professors as MIT and other schools put this theory through its paces and found out that it actually works. Long-term returns increased from 10% for ‘buy and hold’ to 14% using ‘the Dow theory’.
7. Bank of Canada and other central banks are starting to cut rates or thinking about cutting rates.
Lagging indicators that show we are not in a recession.
1. GDP in the States was 4.9% last quarter and is unlikely to stop on a dime.
2. Copper has not reached a 52 week low.
3. Unemployment is low.
4. Vancouver real estate has not crashed.
Gotta like that last one.
Rob,
The Fed is trying to avoid credit markets tightening so badly that it causes a recession because consumers and/or corporations will not be able to obtain loans. Banks have become afraid to lend to each other because of these huge subprime losses and future subprime losses pending. The outcome maybe inflation if the liquidity scheme works properly or still a recession.
Looks like a consumer spending slowdown is starting anyway. Whether that is Canadian retail sales slowing due to cross border shopping or the American consumer tightening their belts. U.S. retail sales down about 3% to date, as Christmas nears.
Coco,
For some reason, it sounds like you’re trying to “convince” him of something.
Don’t bother. It’s not worth your time.
Say, Rob…
A while ago, you refuted the idea that “asking prices” were irrelevant, or words to that effect. Asking prices did not, you claimed, have any real bearing on “market direction” as it were.
So, does that mean that the SHACK on King Albert in Coquitlam that Aaron Best and YOU were so tickled to list was way OVERPRICED to begin with since it is STILL listed at 510k?
OR, has the market “shifted” downward?
“Having said that”, (as you like to say) were the “metrics” OUTTA WHACK?
Whassup?
Oops. Silly me. Sounds like I’m trying to “convince” you of something.
“…the idea that “asking prices” were irrelevant”
I should say, “RELEVANT”.
I don’t know why there is such suspicion about Rob’s perspectives or agenda. He has said, ever since I started reading this blog, that the solution to high prices is high prices and that the market will change, it always does.
I interpret this to mean that prices will reach a point where there is buyer resistance and diminishing returns and this will result in a market change. That isn’t too far detached from bears’ perspectives. At the same time I don’t expect him to split his own throat and pronounce that the RE world as we know it is ending.
If I’m not mistaken Snick, that ppty received mult offers and remains listed until subject removal?
Snick – where do u see the mkt in 4 months?
“In Alameda County, 9,454 homeowners are in some stage of foreclosure this year. Either they have defaulted on their mortgages or received a notice of trustee sale of their home from the bank, according to statistics. Jose Vizcaino was lured by the American dream of owning a home. After 12 years in the Bay Area, he was finally able to buy a house at the beginning of the year when he purchased one in El Sobrante for $502,000.”
” ‘It’s like, ‘Wow, this is my first place,’ he said. ‘They say sign here and sign there and you don’t pay attention.’ In retrospect, he wishes he scrutinized the documents.”
“After a short time, Vizcaino’s manageable 8.9 percent interest rate ballooned to 11 percent. He’s now four months behind on payments. ‘I’m close to foreclosure. I don’t see many opportunities’ for getting out of it,’ he said. Homes in his neighborhood that once sold between $700,000 and $800,000 are now selling for $500,000, he noted, as neighbors begin foreclosure proceedings.”
“Vizcaino said he might not have bought his home if he had known it would become so difficult to afford. ‘This is a nightmare,’ he said.”
“Melissa Fulton and her 5-year-old daughter are saddled with some big problems: foreclosure on a $490,000 mortgage on an El Sobrante house and need of a job.”
“‘Unfortunately, I lost my job through all of this,’ Fulton said, describing the year-long negotiations with her lender. ‘I was dealing with Countrywide; they were calling every day and I lost my job because of that, because of those calls.’ ”
-A-
Good night dogs
“Spain’s Sinking Property Market May Roil Europe”
http://tinyurl.com/3ajmcb
Wow, what do you say to that?
The bears did mention key words like “bubble is global” and that “the rest of the world isn’t much better off than US”. And quite a few other things like:
1. Japan’s undervalued currency. Although their monetary policy is still a disappointment and Japan is pretty bad on carry trades. I’d say they for sure are not stupid as they have sucked in billions of dollars through carry trades.
2. Australia, New Zealand, UK, Europe, and Canada will soon follow as RE in these countries are much higher than what fundamentals support
3. Corporate profit hitting ceiling and can only go down due to higher cost by inflation and that means job losses and reduced equity value
4. The RE downturn sequence has been historically residential, commercial, and industrial being the last
French finance minister did mention that US rate cut is a precursor to price wars by currency differentials and interest rates from world’s major markets. I was actually very surprised to see how EU’s economy relies quite significantly on Airbus.
Very true Johnnyrent. Also this market has been out of wack for years. It is hard to tell anyone to avoid buying real estate at all costs just to watch another 10% get tacked on to next years home value.
I think the jig is up, but I would not force my views on any. Just advise caution and due diligence.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCaV58McnwfQ&refer=home
All those smarmy Londoner’s telling me how smart they were, with all of their cash flow negative rental properties on my last trip there – hmm, wonder if they read Bloomberg? This market has been touted as bulletproof, due to all the Arab, E. Europe (neavo riche), Russian, etc. $ moving in to that market – looks like someone forgot to tell all the investors that, as Rob quite rightly put it – high prices will cure high prices.
Are we tipping over (and heading down)?
If so, do you think the slide accelerates, or flattens out?
WoW, that’s gotta hurt?
What happened – did they run out of oil?
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=42c90381-73b1-4cd2-9939-c4901765816d&k=7688
Yikes – perhaps its just seasonal (it could be, only time will tell), but the YoY numbers, 8.7%, come on – thats gotta shock some folks, EH!?
Calgary Real Estate News
MLS® SEES SEASONAL SLOW DOWN ACTIVITY
December 1st, 2007
Typical season slow down comes to the MLS® during the month of November 2007, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).
Single family Calgary metro sales for November 2007 were 1,103, a decrease of 21 per cent from the 1,397 sales recorded in November 2006 and a slight decrease of 0.9 per cent from the 1,113 sales recorded in October 2007.
Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of November totaled, 1,949, a 39.5 per cent increase over the 1,397 new listings added in November 2006. This is a decrease of 24.6 per cent over the 2,586 new listings added in October 2007.
The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in November 2007 was $407,500 showing a 8.7 per cent increase over November 2006, when the median price was $375,000 and showing a 1.2 per cent decrease from October of this year when the median price was $412,500. All Calgary Metro MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary’s City limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.
Calgary metro condominium new listings added in November were 890, showing a decrease of 26 per cent from the 1,203 new listings added last month. This is a 23.3 per cent increase from the 722 new listings coming to market in November 2006. Calgary metro condominium sales in November 2007 were 496; a decrease of 17.7 per cent from November 2006, when the sales were recorded as 603 and a 10 per cent decrease from the 501 condominium sales recorded in October 2007.
“November is typically a slower month for MLS® sales and listings, due to the approaching holiday season. However, November Single Family Calgary Metro sales are only down by 10 sales from October, so there is still a substantial amount of product selling,” remarked, CREB® President Elect, Ed Jensen. “If you are in the market to purchase, there is a healthy selection of product available at the moment, giving buyers many choices. Also, sellers need to be listing their properties with a professionally licensed REALTOR®, who will help them achieve that all important competitive price point, and give them exposure to the MLS® system, and a network of over 5,600+ other REALTORS®,” concluded Jensen. The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in November 2007 was $462,134, and the average price of a metro condominium was $312,710.
Check out Greenspan talking about the bubble.
http://tinyurl.com/24utqa
Sorry, that should be:
http://tinyurl.com/33q7hl
It’s a video by the way. And it’s bubblicious!
WoW,
There will be a major turndown in the spring. Inventory will explode and prices will begin to go into freefall
The US recession will be far worse than anyone imagined, and it will have a very seriously negative effect on this country.
(I see that liar Mulroney is now yapping it up on BNN. Gotta go)
Euribor (interbank lending rate in Europe) ignores new Fed initiative and stays high anyway.
Some economists believe credit crunch is too big for the central banks to handle and everything will have to run its course anyways.
Chrysler idling Windsor plant
4,900 workers affected by two-week shutdown
http://tinyurl.com/28vjb6
(has to shut down to try to sell excess inventory)
Other Chrysler news…financing falls through…..
The sale of $4 billion in debt supporting Cerberus Capital Management’s purchase of Chrysler has been postponed. Cerberus’s bankers could not sell the debt and so were forced to withdraw the offering.
The global aviation industry faces a sobering downturn next year, with high fuel prices and the credit crunch slashing profit expectations by more than a third, according to the International Air Transport Association.
After absorbing billions in losses related to America’s imploding subprime mortgage market, banks around the world have grown wary of lending money – even to each other – fuelling the current credit market turbulence.
http://tinyurl.com/yrv5ve
Bank of Canada’s recent capital injections are raising questions about whether Canadian banks are facing the same dire need for cash.
“We don’t know how much of these credit default swaps have been embedded in these asset-back commercial paper and what the liabilities of the Canadian banks are,” Booth said.
can’t happen here……. we are different
a record number of complaints from the public in 2006-07
http://tinyurl.com/26p6v7
Spending in Canada’s conventional oil and gas sector will drop significantly in 2008
http://tinyurl.com/2adzr7
(If you think a lot of oil companies will just move their operations to BC and everything will be alright….a lot of oil companies are not able to raise financing for oil exploration due to the credit crunch)
coco
December 13, 2007 at 7:09 am
The global aviation industry faces a sobering downturn next year, with high fuel prices and the credit crunch slashing profit expectations by more than a third
wonder what this will do to all the expansion plans every major airport in the world seems to be touting. less construction? mebbe?
Crude oil fell because of concern that a decision by central banks to provide cash to financial institutions may fail to prevent an economic slowdown.
http://tinyurl.com/27p6ra
Blueskies,
Airports will just raise landing fees and the airport improvement fees.
coco:
good Edm article!
from the comments section:
MK
Tue, Dec 4, 07 at 08:56 PM
For those who have taken a $50 – 70k shavecut on their house price, I would suggest don’t panic. The IMF did a pretty exhaustive study of housing bubbles and their collapses and concluded that price declines seldom exceed 30%. On a 500K home, that would only be 150k. Not much money in an economy that’s on fire.,
encapsulates the current thinking beautifully.
chill out dude! it’s only an iceberg, let’s party!
Blueskies,
Edm article was Wow, not me.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is planning to cut up to 50 front-office jobs in debt capital markets and leveraged finance in London.
CIBC said that as of October 31 it had C$9.3 billion of subprime mortgage exposure through derivatives contracts hedged with unnamed investment-grade counter parties.
“In Alameda County, 9,454 homeowners are in some stage of foreclosure this year. Either they have defaulted on their mortgages or received a notice of trustee sale of their home from the bank, according to statistics. ” …
-A-
Is that the best you can come up with after exhaulting internet searching?
Every second in anywhere, there are people that suffer due to different circumtances.
Meanwhile, there are people celebrating happiness as new babies being born, people moving to new houses and many other occasions in lives.
You are a miserable soul! Be happy, have a life, please.
“Initial U.S. foreclosure filings rose 93 percent from January through November compared to the same period last year, foreclosure research company Foreclosures.com reported this week, and the number of homes that ended up as bank-owned properties rose 41 percent.”
“An estimated 1.08 million homes, or 14.8 of every 1,000 households, entered the foreclosure process nationwide in the first 11 months of the year. And 526,936 households, or 6.6 homes out of every 1,000 households, reverted to lender ownership.”
“An estimated 72,101 homes nationwide were repossessed by lenders in November alone, up 31.8 percent compared to October. Bank-owned properties are also known as real estate-owned, or REO, properties.”
“You can’t turn a financial toad [into a prince] by kissing it or by securitizing it or by transferring its ownership to somebody else,”
Warren Buffett 12/11/2007
One purpose of a central bank is to grow an economy that is relatively stable and sound.
Now acting foolishly most followed the Federal Reserve’s lead (for some stupid reason…probably because they cannot think for themselves) and cut interests too low and for too long.
Therefore they created the boom ..largely based on shakey credit…and are now warning people they may have to suffer if this bailout fails.
So let me get this straight. People like you and me are going to suffer if this BS plan does not work…after you clowns created it?
U.S. realtors new business…repo home tours-video
http://tinyurl.com/3a7a5a
Bobbybear,
The fed only lowered interest rates. Greed did the rest.
Forgot link….
Buffett says economy close to recession
http://tinyurl.com/2xalzq
“You can’t turn a financial toad [into a prince] by kissing it or by securitizing it or by transferring its ownership to somebody else,”
Warren Buffett 12/11/2007
Three items for real estate are
Location, Location, Location
I wonder if this blog is for US housing bubble or for Vancouver???
Almost all postings regarding recessions and real estate crash are for the US. Vancouver has a different location than Cleveland, Ohio. come on guys…
Brian,
Are you kidding?
Brian,
Are you joking? You can’t be serious!!!
I guess he doesn’t understand that BC is dependent on the U.S. for 60% of its exports and if the U.S. tanks there will be more layoffs here. Kind of hard to pay a mortgage with an unemployment cheque.
Brian,
have a look at this and let me know what you think:
http://tinyurl.com/36ugd9
I think over here we overshot even that level. The bears have been wrong until now because this housing cycle has been artificially prolonged for different reasons. The tide has turned in: Spain, UK, US, Ireland. It is also turning in Australia and Italy.
Now: those are not Cleveland, are they? Can you give me a simple reason for your arguments about Vancouver being different than all the above?
Now let’s be serious…….
Brian, with that kind of perspective and RE market knowledge you should go out right now and buy as much property as you can. It’s only going to go up, right…. Anyway, the U.S. markets are floundering and it’s getting worse. They have sneezed and we are slowly catching that cold. It seems B.C. took extra vitamins and is resisting this cold!
Anyway, let’s see how high this idiotic market can go before buyer’s actually use their brains. It is well noted that many buyers are stretched thin and dedicate 3/4 of their income to their RE. This is just wrong. I hope all the greedy people suffer when the market turns.
Canadian economy expected to cool next year after red-hot 2007
http://tinyurl.com/2cckuy
“Problems in credit markets are more serious and more persistent than initially thought, and “the dominant economic theme for 2008 will be significantly slower economic growth in the United States, Canada and around the globe,” TD Bank economists said Thursday.”
Canada Q2 productivity growth tepid as C$ bites
http://tinyurl.com/2ebnj8
“It is well noted that many buyers are stretched thin and dedicate 3/4 of their income to their RE. This is just wrong. ”
why is it so wrong? Have you witness a family with three children renting living in a low and moist basement, while two of them suffer ashma, and grandmo suffers authrithis? The parents have been saving money while renting until the point they cannot cope with renting no more. Good luck trying to find a landlord with cheap rent, healthy environment and willing to rent to a family with three kids, and schooling factors. Sometimes, it’s not greed, it’s about providing for the children, and it requires the sacryfying part from the parents.
The question I post to you: specuvestors aside, are you wishing ill-will to this group of people as well? If your answer is yes, what made of the bears?
Canadian credit crunch continues….
The Bank of Canada injected C$475 million into markets on Thursday to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank’s target and improve liquidity.
Dog tqn, I expected to rile newsflash, but I guess you’ll do.
“You are a miserable soul! Be happy, have a life, please”
Well since you said please, I will be happy even if the article I quoted documented:
“In Alameda County, 9,454 homeowners are in some stage of foreclosure this year. Either they have defaulted on their mortgages or received a notice of trustee sale of their home from the bank, according to statistics. ” …
BTW midterms are in the bag, I think I scored high 90’s
tqn: “The question I post to you: specuvestors aside, are you wishing ill-will to this group of people as well? If your answer is yes, what made of the bears?” Bears by and large are supporters of decent family housing prices. I myself know many hardworking young families with decent jobs who should not in noway pay 70% of there income to find decent housing. If you want to find the people who hurt young families look entirely to the bulls, especially the greedy specuvestors that run up prices with no thought to the over all health of the community. It pains me when I see a young family buy into this fever when I know the inevitable downturn will ruin them. Speculators and their like on the otherhand will be too busy trying to get the government to bail them out of their greed driven investments.
Stratman, do you see why I can’t treat “the dogs” as human beings?
the end is near when the bears turn on each other… can you spell capitulation?
tqn,
the sob story does not work, sorry. I know at least 5 families (kids,eldres included) who are renting because they cannot afford to buy decent accommodation. I am not talking about fancy west side accommodation, I mean they cannot afford decent suburban stuff and still pay for the bills.
When I talk to these guys, whom I know as hard working and serious, I always tell them that housing will go back to be cheaper: I have been wrong until now because of the unusual lenght of this cycle. I am confident that 2 years from now things will look very different. I think we will go back to 2003 in real terms.
And what about you tqn, newsflash, realitycheck, do you see why I treat you like dogs?
“can you spell capitulation?” Are you kidding? I’ve never been so optimistic, met three landlords today who can’t rent their new condo’s out for the last three,THREE months, you wanta see grouchy!!!! 🙂
i’m watching $200 per month drops on water view west end, our lease is up end of March
“do you see why I can’t treat “the dogs” as human beings?”
Is it because you are less than one? Chihuahua dogs are more valuable than, human being, if I put it your way! Did you know a little newborn puppy cost as much as $7k at the store? Their foods are cost more than yours as well.
“I always tell them that housing will go back to be cheaper: I have been wrong until now because of the unusual lenght of this cycle.”
and how do they look at you when, because of this expert advocate, the prices keep running away from them in many thousands of dollars.
” I am confident that 2 years from now things will look very different. I think we will go back to 2003 in real terms.”
I could not wait to see those prices again, so men and women can have all the homes they think they are entitled to.
dollar dealers….
saw lots of those in Calgary in ’81/82
http://tinyurl.com/25vj3h
…or you could join the satv school of RE
http://tinyurl.com/22mwg3
tqn…
“Good luck trying to find a landlord with cheap rent, healthy environment and willing to rent to a family with three kids, and schooling factors. Sometimes, it’s not greed, it’s about providing for the children, and it requires the sacryfying part from the parents.”
I know many families who rent decent homes on the west side for many times less than it would cost to own. I also know some people who have bought in the last few years in Dunbar and Pt Grey. I have to say that the people who rent seem to have a much higher standard of living than the home owners do. Mind you there are many shite suites in this part of town and FWIW they’re not much cheaper than renting a whole house.
tqn, I have had it with you! If you don’t stop being rude, I will formally request of the blog administrator to remove you from this discussion board.
“I could not wait to see those prices again, so men and women can have all the homes they think they are entitled to.” and you are a ______(fill in space) as obviously you do not classify yourself as (so men and women?) either?neither? 🙂
yeah it’s me wrote…
““Melissa Fulton and her 5-year-old daughter are saddled with some big problems: foreclosure on a $490,000 mortgage on an El Sobrante house and need of a job.”
“‘Unfortunately, I lost my job through all of this,’ Fulton said, describing the year-long negotiations with her lender. ‘I was dealing with Countrywide; they were calling every day and I lost my job because of that, because of those calls.’ ””
No Melissa you lost your job because you were too lazy to do proper research on the biggest purchase of your life! I would bet that I spend more time researching a $10k stock purchase than most people spend researching their $500k+ real estate purchases.
As much as I look forward to this market returning to sanity I am dreading all the stupid sob stories that’ll be on the CBC and company from morons like Melissa.
“-A-
December 13, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Stratman, do you see why I can’t treat “the dogs” as human beings?”
“-A-
December 13, 2007 at 2:29 pm
And what about you tqn, newsflash, realitycheck, do you see why I treat you like dogs?”
“tqn, I have had it with you! If you don’t stop being rude, I will formally request of the blog administrator to remove you from this discussion board.”
if the above are:
-what you mean by your politeness, then you dont have to formally request, cuz I withdraw from the board.
-what you mean by discussion, then it’s a waste of educational space in UBC.
If you are serious in discussion, please dont call “dogs” to the people who happen to have different point of views. To you, it’s not rude. But to me, it’s unpolite, uncivillized, and uneducated.
Realitycheck has been around all the board for many years, he know the E van market more than you can think, he visited open houses; he knows what he talks about, and you call him dog cuz he is a real estate investor? He could be a good contributor here.
Open your eyes, dont view the world through the glass-half-empty. There is more out there!
-A-
by the way, I dont mind you calling tqn a dog, cuz I could be a chihuahua or k9 dog and I am very patient, cuz it’s an anonymous. Have warm and dry evening.
tqn, you leave me no alternative, but to report you to the proper authorities.
proper authorities.
tqn is referring to himself in the third person….
what “authority” would be able to handle this?
“cuz I could be a chihuahua or k9 dog and I am very patient,” Damnnn -A- maybe tqn IS a dog cause he doesn’t want men and women wanting homes! And he’s upset cause he owns a DOGhouse! 🙂 with a mortgage!
tqn and vanreal are the same person
I think tqn has gone absconded. He realized the seriousness of his offence; I pray that the authorities will go easy on him.
if the authorities are looking for a trash-talking bull they’ll have to arrest half of Yaletown!
tqn/vanreal lives East Van near Main
Although tqn was rude mean, and disrespectful, I still hope the authorities will go easy on him.
But I sure hope that newsflash, will learn from this vicariously.
-A- aka mr.sensitive
#
Kind of hard to pay a mortgage with an unemployment cheque.
Maximum EI benefits is sitting at $1420/month… If there are widespread job losses there will be lots of RE deals…. Sit back and grab some popcorn cause it should be a good show.
BTW shouldn’t we charge Rob for creating traffic on his blog?
Or would people log on to the dog show just the same.
I am reminded of Rob’s blog every time I see that fine art work with the dogs playing poker or billiards.
This is so fun. 🙂
-A-,
just a friendly reminder that therapy section is 9am friday.
“I could not wait to see those prices again, so men and women can have all the homes they think they are entitled to.” and you are a ______(fill in space) as obviously you do not classify yourself as (so men and women?) either?neither
And you are a LANDLORD collecting rent from men and women? :):)