November MOI

Here’s a snippet of stats to keep your appetites whetted: total active listings in the REBGV for November: 12,482. Total sales: 3,021. MOI = 4.13.  Last December was 6.2.

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71 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

71 responses to “November MOI

  1. paulb

    Where do you get those numbers?? sales for the month were 2883. Inventory was at 10668 on the 30th. REBGV stats report numbers.

  2. coco

    Interesting headline considering the October average price was $730,222 and the November average price is $729,011

    Real estate prices rise again in Lower Mainland

    http://tinyurl.com/3dwvx6

  3. coco

    David Dodge predicts growth in Canada will slow through the current quarter and the first half of next year before recovering later in 2008.

  4. coco

    Bank of Nova Scotia posted a 5% increase in fourth-quarter earnings today, but its shares slipped as the bank provided a cautious outlook for 2008.

  5. WoW

    ALL THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR RE BULLS, THE BEARS ARE WRONG WRONG WRONG, bad news for the economy is good news for the RE market, as the more job losses the more bodies we have for construction, which is all we need, and if RE prices soften, we’ll hire more bodies for construction and put them to work their with high incomes, and then they’ll buy more RE, and we can hire more bodies at high wages, and so on and so on forever and ever and ever, but this will only work in Vancouver, as we are running out of land, and everyone in the world, expecially wealthy people want to live here, and if they have less wealth, we can hire them as bodies to work on RE projects, which they’ll buy as ‘investors’, and rent out at cash flow negative levels, and keep things moving as they can make more money flipping them and buy more, and get more bodies working on RE projects who get paid well, and move here because we have jobs galore, and need more bodies and if things slow down and we have excess inventory, we can start more RE developments and hire more bodies and so on and so on, don’t you bears know that this is how it works, just look at the US and the UK, I mean, don’t look at them, its different here….

  6. robchipman

    Paulb:

    My error, sorry. Those were the 2006 numbers. I’ve revised them for 2007 now. Thanks for that part of the difference.

    You’ll see our numbers are still a little out of synch. If you’re a Realtor look at the Month End Office Package, or you can look elsewhere on line to get the set of graphs with 4 pie charts -actives and solds for this year and last year. REBGV stats vary a little from themselves based on which query is being run – some contain commercial listings as well.

    If you’re doing totals from what I report, remember that my area isn’t the full REBGV area, and I add a couple FVREB areas.

  7. paulb

    I track the REBGV I do not undrstand why our numbers are so out of synch. I include detached, attached, multi family and land only. Am I missing something?

  8. paulb

    The dynamic listing counts from bcalink put us at 11114 for the end ov November and 2878 sales.

  9. robchipman

    paulb:

    We discovered this anomaly last year and I investigated it then. The dif is commercial listings. Like I say, I don’t know where you get the stats. I don’t get mine from BCAlink, but either online from MLXchange/REBGV or in hard copy. I’ve emailed you a scan of the stats I’m working off.

  10. paulb

    Thanks for the email. Yes it must be total MLS listings commercial included.

  11. whitebear

    Well. Those bears who have been predicting a downturn or a crash for the last 4 years can rest in peace after checking out how this listing got sold 600k above ask.

  12. News Flash

    “checking out how this listing got sold 600k above ask.”

    Probably will be torn down. 2.3 million for land value only.

    I am sure the people who bought it took out a sub prime 0% down no doc mortgage with a 0.5% teaser rate. Once the teaser rate expires it will be foreclosed on and will sell for it’s true value of $50,000. After all you can get a lot in Alaska for $50,000 and they have similar incomes. All this should happen within the next few weeks.

  13. Anonymous

    Oct 1, 2007 sale, not very recent. Try November or December at least.

  14. blueskies

    hmmm
    looks like the bulls are scraping the bottom of the barrel for examples to fit their version of reality……

    what goes up will come down….
    even satv knows this.

  15. blueskies

    OK here’s a heart warming xmas story

    from craigslist:
    http://tinyurl.com/2vk6j7

    $339000 Want a New Home For Christmas?

    Spectrum 3
    Enjoy life …. soaring towers
    1 bedroom 500 square feet
    laminate
    No parking ………

    alas the tedium is overwhelming 🙂

  16. AmPa

    Whoohoo! Go Vancouver RE prices, go!

    Mwahahahahaha! I love how the sound of evil laughter echos in my humongous $1500 per square foot pent house in coal harbor.

    Even my little poodle pooch is happy. I named him Optimus Subprime. Last week he was groomed and they shaved a $ on his belly. So cute.

  17. blueskies

    ampa!

    a penthouse will come in handy for you to watch the carnage below.

    coming to your neighborhood soon….falling prices!

  18. Domus

    Some comments on Bush’s bail-out of reckless buyers (from the Mortgage Insider’s site):

    “I interviewed three sources about the plan and got wide-ranging reactions.

    Michael Pento, a senior market strategist with Delta Global Advisors, an investment advisory firm in Huntington Beach, lambasted the plan.

    “I hate it. I think it’s disgusting,” Pento said.

    He said the plan would perversely encourage subprime borrowers whose loans reset to miss payments, since that would show they can’t afford the higher rate. He also said government was dangerously close to modifying private contracts, because investors bought loans anticipating rate increases in the mortgages.

    And, finally, the plan is morally reprehensible, he said.

    “It’s anti-capitalist to have responsible consumers punished and reckless consumers rewarded,” he said. He said renters who have been patiently waiting for home prices to fall and saving their money now may face an extended wait, since the Bush plan may prolong the housing correction.

    “Who is speaking for them?” he said of renters. Such folks are getting the message they should have gambled recklessly on buying a home, he said.

    On the flipside: Steve Bailey, senior managing director in Countrywide Financial’s Simi Valley office, said the pact is nonbinding on lenders, but they will be under political pressure to follow its guidelines. That’s good for homeowners, and will be of some benefit to the housing market, he said.

    “I can tell you the rate of foreclosure increase in this product will definitely slow,” Bailey said. “It will not make home prices go back to positive increases. That’s really what’s driving the increase in foreclosures.”

    Bailey said loan servicers will remain legally obligated to serve the best interest of investors who own the loans. The president’s plan, however, will put pressure on lenders to look closely at modifying subprime loans to see if it would be in everyone’s best interest to freeze a teaser rate as opposed to a possible foreclosure and loss.

    Scott Anderson, a senior economist with Wells Fargo in Minneapolis, said the plan could forestall a recession, but it could also lead to an extended period of sluggish economic growth. He compared it to slowly pulling off a Band-Aid rather than ripping it off.

    Anderson compared the current real estate downturn in the U.S. to one in Japan in the 1980s when the government there intervened.

    “Those banks were kept on life support and they kept the bad loans on the books,” Anderson said. “The result was a decade of sluggish growth.”

    And he said the President’s plan could result in lawsuits from borrowers not included in the plan or from investors in mortgages.

    “This could be a goldmine for trial lawyers,” he said. “The lawyers will win again.””

  19. Annon

    All subprime mortgages have 0% down payment. So currently RE price dropped some 15~45% in the once hottest/over-valued communities. Would you walk away saving 100~350k or would you hold on to your negative equity status for at least another 5 years or even 10+ years?

  20. Popeye

    NEVER, NEVER, NEVER believe the statistics the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) spews out. Treat all their stats with the deepest suspicion. Here’s why.

    In order to keep a RE License active and to be in good standing with the GEBGV, it is compulsory for every one of its 7000 real estate salesman to make monthly payments to the board.

    It survives only on dues-paying members and does its best to keep the membership high. The REBGV operates on the same principles as a country club.

    To keep membership high and to keep the money coming in, they need to sucker the public to keep on buying. It’s just that simple.

    This selfish attitude is of no help to the hapless consumer. He can’t research the market on his own because the REBGV is the ONLY source for housing data. The board has all the marbles, you have none, and they can play around as they wish.

    This explains why the Board is free to manipulate the numbers in a way that suggests that inventory is low, sales are up, prices are up, and that prices will rise in the future, when the opposite of all this could be true, and very often is.

    All the phony figures they publish are passed on to the media who never bother to corroborate their claims. Instead, the mainstream media gleefully lap it up much like a dog does over spilled chicken soup that hits the kitchen floor. The reason?

    Most people own their own homes, including those in mainstream media. It’s like everybody in town owning Petrocan shares all at the same time. Any dopey figures are welcome if the value of the shares can be pushed higher, justified or not.

  21. blueskies

    hey ! all you knuckle-dragging mouth-breathing bulls out there…. the party is over!

    http://tinyurl.com/ysbpyj

  22. coco

    Bush’s Bad Mortgage Medicine

    http://tinyurl.com/22lwxs

  23. coco

    Canada’s unemployment rate up but 43,000 more jobs created

    http://tinyurl.com/23dmyc

    (B.C. unemployment fell .02% to 4.2% in November, but the forestry layoffs started in December so these job losses would not be included in this total)

  24. coco

    Burns Lake, BC…..

    Babine Forest Products and Decker Lake sawmills are the latest to announce yet further down time in the forest industry.

    The reduction in work week to three days will affect about 230 employees at the Babine plant, and a further 50 more at the Decker Lake operation.

  25. coco

    Aloha….

    “Similarly, more Canadian buyers are choosing to purchase Hawaiian real estate and capitalize on the best U.S. exchange rates they have seen in 30 years, Loughery said. “Five years ago, a $1 million property in the U.S. would have cost a Canadian buyer $1.6 million to purchase. Now it will cost them just under $1 million,” she said. “We’ve seen a big change in the exchange rates in the last six to eight weeks, and everyone wants to go shopping.”

    Buyers from Alberta and British Columbia played heavily in the mix of investors who bought property last month when S&P Destination Properties released the first phase of Koloa Landing, a luxury resort condominium project on Kauai, Loughery said. We sold $76 million worth of real estate in just a few weeks.

  26. tqn

    “blueskies
    December 7, 2007 at 7:23 am
    hey ! all you knuckle-dragging mouth-breathing bulls out there…. the party is over!”

    over for you because you sold way too early, including your principal residence! Your almost a million bucks can buy what, not even half of “600k above ask” thingy above. I know I know, It drives you crazy doesnt it!

  27. coco

    Residential building sets record in B.C. Permits for October post the biggest one-month percentage gain

    http://tinyurl.com/2jse3j

  28. paulb

    It’s all about the spring. I am hopeful we correct but this market has been crazy for years.

    Perhaps now the credit mess and a possible US recession will take it’s toll and start the party.

    Once prices start to drop and the news takes hold of it, Vancouver will get taken to the cleaners.

  29. blueskies

    tqn:

    asking $600K today will be asking $299K next year….must sell vendor will carry finance any offers!…..

  30. Anonymous

    tqn,

    I don’t think a person with a million dollar net worth is rattled by one house that sold way back on October 1, 2007 for 600k over list.

  31. New job numbers just came in … BC numbers were huge, surprisingly, from CBC:

    “British Columbia led all provinces in job growth, adding 25,800 new payroll positions, mainly in construction. ”

    http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/12/07/jobs-rate.html

    Although, apparently Van’s unemployment rate went up .1%.

  32. Tony Danza

    “…coming to your neighborhood soon….falling prices!”

    Or, heaven forbid, falling investors. I’m sure there will be a few swan dives from these $1500/sqft breeding containers once things return to “normal”.

  33. Anonymous

    Macchiato,

    Coco posted another link to the job numbers earlier. It stands to reason that construction is up considering her other link to an increase of B.C. residential building permits issued in October.

  34. blueskies

    increase of B.C. residential building permits issued in October

    i love the smell of inventory overhang so early in the season.

  35. WoW

    blueskies – love that reference to Apocolypse Now! Nicely done – and yes, I smell it too.

  36. jesse

    “more Canadian buyers are choosing to purchase Hawaiian real estate and capitalize on the best U.S. exchange rates they have seen in 30 years, Loughery said”

    Price depends on what exchange rate you wire transfer the money at. Hope people didn’t buy doing the math with 1CAD=1.10USD and settled at today’s exchange rate — they just effectively paid 10% more!

  37. blueskies

    well it is too nice of a day to sit in front of the ol’ pooter, i’m gonna take a walk with my camera around Stanley Park before mother nature rearranges it yet again….

  38. Jay

    I don’t take realtor’s numbers as gospel. They’re obviously not a neutral party. Do people actually rely on these numbers as their only source of information regarding the RE market?

    Despite Rob’s numbers, a downturn does seem to be in effect. Most of Canada is feeling it and areas in the LM are feeling it (other than Vancouver proper, of course). 🙂

  39. ObserverX

    Hmmm, no stats for 3 days from Rob — they must be reeeeeally bad. 🙂

  40. Wise Guy

    It has already begun, my friend.

    Looks like whoever MAY buy/ have bought Aaron’s shack (listed at 510K) on King Albert in Coquitlam NOW has to compete with a newer and MUCH nicer house in WEST Coquitlam which is newly listed at 499K

    Ah me…

  41. WoW

    WoW….just picked up the Van Sun – WoW – this will rattle some cages over the weekend – will probably help Jeff convince his holdouts to lower their prices a bit!

  42. Jeff

    nope… everyone is in denial…

  43. Anonymous

    The media is starting to take notice, here we go…

    Front page of today’s Sun:

    http://tinyurl.com/33yjg2

  44. -A-

    Aaron and the six dogs:

    Any comments on the above article?

  45. blueskies

    somebody should point out to rob that the market is starting to drop. you would hate to see him blindsided by these events.

  46. VAB

    That’s some front page. Last one to the exits is a rotten egg!

  47. blueskies

    you can practically hear the pitter patter of hurried feet heading for the exit….BOO!

  48. blueskies

    calgary…… really cold real estate

    http://tinyurl.com/ysu6tn

  49. paulb

    That article was a swing and a miss Blue.

  50. coco

    Vancouver Economic Development Commission, a non-profit set up a decade ago to promote and nurture the city’s economy, wants a $700,000 hike — or a 71-per-cent increase — in city funding next year. If approved, total funding for the group would be $1.4 million.

    A separate report going to council on the prospect of tax increases in 2008 notes that the hefty increase in funding for the commission would be part of new spending that could bump the tax hike of 4.8 per cent to more than 6.0 per cent — unless other service fees increased or programs were cut

    http://tinyurl.com/39v7r8

  51. coco

    High dollar, weak U.S. economy puts drag on B.C. economic growth

    http://tinyurl.com/2l359d

  52. coco

    Fraser Valley housing prices have hit an eight-month low

    http://tinyurl.com/ynufxg

  53. Geezer

    Did any of you folks actually read past the provocative headlines?

    It was full of warnings about taking one or two months numbers as a sign of a trend. It also contained this quote “Sam said that looking at his statistics, he counted a similar month to month decline in average house prices between September and November of 2006, as well.”

    So, are you folks suggesting that 2008 will be a repeat of 2007 in terms of price trends? CMHC clearly seems to think so.

    Did any of you notice that the article ended with the following words?

    “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. doesn’t do a market forecast for the entire Fraser Valley, McCaughan added, but it does compile one for the Abbotsford census area, which calls for 10-per-cent price growth in 2008.

    “That means that while the market is going to fluctuate, at the end of the year you’re going to have increases,” he said. “The fact that we have an up and down [price] graph to get there has gone on forever.”

    Wow, pretty negative stuff eh? Only a 10% upward forecast for next year.

  54. Strataman

    “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. doesn’t do a market forecast for the entire Fraser Valley, McCaughan added, but it does compile one for the Abbotsford census area, which calls for 10-per-cent price growth in 2008.” Speaking of reading beyond the headlines CMHC did not forecast the results of the PriceWaterhouse Survey that the headlines were based on, so why would we believe them now? The overbuilt developments in the suburbs are not selling, and by the way they are not usually listed on MLS when still in the developers hands. Why don’t YOU do some reading Geeze! Sam? for cryin out loud can’t you find anyone more biased then that? 🙂

  55. -A-

    “Wow, pretty negative stuff eh? Only a 10% upward forecast for next year.”

    Geezer, there has never been a better time to buy, better hurry before we run out of land, CMHC has never been wrong….

    They have always warned the public before previous crashes, so it’s pretty safe to jump in the water now.

  56. coco

    Credit crunch carries on…

    The Bank of Canada is leaving C$277 million in the Large Value Transfer System on Friday.

  57. News Flash

    “Sam said that looking at his statistics, he counted a similar month to month decline in average house prices between September and November of 2006″

    Yes and 2004 as well.

    “Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp…Only a 10% upward forecast for next year.”

    Yes CHMC is always conservative in their forecast. Lets face it, the market is extremely hot right now considering time of year. Inventory is plummetting: combine that with record population growth, declining interest rates and we have another healthy spring coming. We should see the 10% CMHC forecast by end of June.

  58. News Flash

    “you can practically hear the pitter patter of hurried feet heading for the exit”

    You have been hearing those feet for years now. That’s why you jumped too soon and left most of your profits on the table.

    “Remember, it’s best to get out a year early than a day late.”

    Sometimes. But never several years too early than a day late.

  59. blueskies

    newsflash backing geezer up….now i’m scared!

    never several years too early than a day late

    our final deal closed on May 31/07
    i can safely tell you that it takes discipline to walk away from the table with potential money on it.
    greed sinks you every time…..

    if we had waited to sell and closed at the end of Nov/07 we could have pulled another 10k out of it.

  60. Brittany Spears

    When I see an ad like this, is when I will buy back in to the market:

    “100 % vendor financing @ 1.5%. Will rent basement from you at $100/mo. plus food from you. Must pay in gold/silver bullion or coins.Wood fireplace and drilled well with lots of space for garden. Please drop by, as I have no phone. 1234 Richrealestateguy Blvd.

  61. blueskies

    tqn:

    free advice for you

    get out of the market… now!

    grab your profits while you can

    grab the money and run!

    when this tips over it’s gonna hurt……

  62. -A-

    Hi Brittany, I bet your dog doesn’t know as much about real estate as the 7 on this blog.

  63. -A-

    Blue, why would you warn the dogs?

    I am going to enjoy watching them “getting it”
    I hope it will be a long and dry one.

  64. blueskies

    well, if ol’ tqn does not wake up i’ll be there to
    tell him gleefully “i told you so”!

  65. tqn

    blueskies,
    You were scared to you sell early, and you even played with your own principle residence. when did you sell? how much $$ has the market get away from you? a $mil doesnt sound much for Van West though, dont you agree? You should be comforting your wife instead. Wait instil next Spring, she would kick your a$$. 🙂
    I dont play around with my own principle residence, and guys like lonely -A- help people on their mortgage payment. Thank you very much.
    By the way, it’s just money, people.

  66. tqn

    “I am going to enjoy watching them “getting it”
    I hope it will be a long and dry one.”

    oh my oh my, dont tell everyone you are porn addictive as well 🙂 You really need counselling.

  67. Brittany Spears

    -A-
    First off I do not have a dog. Secondly, why is it that you think I do not have any knowledge in RE?

    Do you have a ?

    Go ahead and ask and let the other bloggers judge me. Including Rob, who incidently, I have nothing against.

  68. Brittany Spears

    There are multiple sides to RE coin. Depends who you are and what your looking for. Markets are driven by only 2 forces. Greed & fear. If you are trying to “guess” or “spec” the market, you are driven by one of the two forces.
    If you want a “home”, you will not be effected by these 2 forces, so long as you are not over extended and it is your principle residence for a long time to come.

  69. News Flash

    BS: “our final deal closed on May 31/07”

    Deal for what? You were posting the same doom and gloom in May 2005 on the VHB blog claiming to be renting. You held investment property for 2 years after claiming every month the market was crashing?

    Come on, your story doesn’t add up.

  70. tqn

    nice catch, New Flash, so what happened to the closed to $1mil cash? must be monopoly money.

  71. tqn

    no wonder…they always sing the same song that they save bunch of money renting, sitting on a bunch of cash, almost a $mil in cash. I would not be suprised that some of them flipping burgers somewhere…

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