Monday Numbers

There were 214 new listings Monday, and 154 sales, for a sell/list of 71.96%.  Of the sales 17, or 11.04%, went over list.  Average list price was $528,762, while average sale price was $12,484 less, at $516,276 (-2.36%).   Average DOM to sale was 41.

There were 38 price changes, of which 2, or 5.26%, were increases.  The average original price was $609,794, while the average new price was $587,584, $22,210, or 3.15% less.  Average DOM to price change was 67.

Inventory dropped again, to 10,356, of which 2,575, or 24.86%, were over 90s.  0.35% of all active listings in my area had their prices reduced Monday.

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149 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

149 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. Jeff

    64 new listings today for a 26 year old condo that has been fully renovated in the Westend.

    1550 Barclay St 4-floor building and Cardero St townhouses.

    By excluding them, the sell/list would have been 100%.

  2. AmPa

    *shhhhh* be quite and listen.

    I think I hear the ghosts of those who were predicting 13,000 inventory by end of September.

    We’ll be sub 10,000 be end of February.

  3. Strataman

    We’ll be sub 10,000 be end of February. Plus 12,000 First week in March! 🙂

  4. blueskies

    ampa! buddy! you are back!

    here’s sumthin’ for you to chew on……

    http://tinyurl.com/25xy67

    credit problems over? didn’t think so

    E*Trade got anywhere from 11 cents to 27 cents on the dollar for its $3.1 billion portfolio of asset-backed securities.

  5. The Original Joshua

    Lots of expired listings – the over 90’s dropped from ~26% to ~24%. I doubt its because they all sold 🙂

  6. coco

    The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 1/4 percent.

    http://tinyurl.com/2q2feq

  7. coco

    No changes in long term mortgage rates at the banks yet.

  8. coco

    Bond yields have fallen again, but it seems the credit crunch/subprime losses are still keeping long term mortgage rates a lot higher than where they should be at.

  9. coco

    A lot more injected than Friday’s news (which I posted yesterday)

    The Bank of Canada injected a total of C$1.185 billion into markets on Monday to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank’s target and improve liquidity.

  10. coco

    Economic train wreck in the U.S.

    http://tinyurl.com/ys5jq6

    “The Canadian economy grew at a 2.9-per-cent clip in the third quarter, versus 3.8 per cent in the second quarter, concrete proof the pricey loonie has begun to bite, hitting exports and making imports more expensive. This is before Canada suffers the full impact of lower U.S. demand for all the stuff we produce.”

    “Economists are now scrambling to lower their forecasts for the next few quarters to account for the sharp slowing. Some are even raising the spectre of a U.S.-triggered recession north of the border.”

  11. coco

    Canadian retailers concerned about high dollar/cross border shopping on their bottom-lines. But…because there is such a lag in when retail sales numbers are reported, we will not know the results until next year.

  12. Jeff

    US Home prices see biggest drop in 25 years
    “home price index fell 1.3 percent on an annualized basis in the quarter”
    “the Pacific region fell the most at a 5.8 percent annualized rate of decline”

  13. Jeff

    US Home prices see biggest drop in 25 years
    “home price index fell 1.3 percent on an annualized basis in the quarter”
    “the Pacific region fell the most at a 5.8 percent annualized rate of decline”
    http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/04/real_estate/home_prices/index.htm?postversion=2007120412

  14. WoW

    13,000 – it will come, but I’ve been wrong thus far, fair to call me on it….that said, is it just me, or do prices appear to be softening a bit? Is some of the firmness in the market fading? Or will we still see 10-15percent yoy increases in the spring?

    On another note – if someone bought a home 5yrs ago and paid 500k, put in 300k in renos, and sole it today for 1,000,000 – is this a 100perect rate of return as calculated in the stats?

    I note billions being spent on home improvements…I assume the data adjusts for this – NOT!:))

  15. EdmPrincess

    Sorry to barge in here but our prices have fallen $21K from Oct. Edm has been in free fall since May it seems. yet we have the number one economy in the country according to CIBC. Rob may I request an opinion of Edmonton real estate?

  16. VAB

    If you bought something in ’02 for 500 K and put 300 K in, you’d get a lot more than 1 M today.

  17. Dyugle

    Well we have now past the top of the market in Vancouver. This is if the BOC rate cut theory holds this time. The theory is simple. Once the BOC has approximately doubled its rate from the bottom to the top and then starts to cut the market has peaked. This has held true for the last three cycles in Vancouver R.E. starting in 1980 till today. If it holds this time (BOC raised rates from 2.25% to 4.5% and now cut to 4.25%) then the top is in the review mirror. I would recommend anyone selling to talk to their realtor and get your house price reduced for a quick sale will multiple offers. Or you can wait for spring and hope that “its different this time”.
    Those are the four most costly words ever written.
    Good Luck.

  18. coco

    B.C. consumer confidence rises to highest level since April

    http://tinyurl.com/2h8oek

    “And so much of that [wealth] is tied up in our homes,” Knittel said. “And with housing prices over the last number of years, most people’s houses have doubled [in value]. They’re feeling extremely wealthy.”

    “People in areas affected by the mill and mine project shutdowns are probably feeling a bit less confident, he said. Out in the more rural parts of British Columbia that are getting hammered by the shutdowns and slowdowns in forestry, and the gas exploration up north, I think folks there are feeling quite vulnerable,” Knittel said.
    Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of B.C., believes the bad economic news that may be around the corner hasn’t caught up with consumers yet.”

  19. coco

    Edmonton’s economy hottest in Canada: CIBC

    http://tinyurl.com/2pbep8

    #2 – Calgary
    #3 – Saskatoon
    #4 – Montreal
    #5 – Toronto
    #6 – Vancouver

  20. BBY

    Vancouver no longer the same immigrant magnet – CBC News
    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2007/12/04/bc-vancouvercensus.html

    “For the second census in a row, the area has experienced a decline in new arrivals during the last five years.”

    “The province had a net gain of more than 20,000 people.
    But Vancouver isn’t winning any popularity awards. More people left Vancouver for Abbotsford, B.C., Kelowna, B.C., Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton and even Sudbury, Ont., than came the other way.”

  21. vanreal

    The CBC article is very poorly written. It isn’t clear about timeframe and seems to contradict other articles that state that BC is on the plus side when it comes to inter provincial immigration. what timeframe are they talking about when they say that 20,000 more people came to BC. Is that over the last 5 years or last year. Very poor article

  22. vanreal

    case in point. Coco’s article says that Vancouver has strong population growth while the cbc article says it does not. where is the consistency?

  23. vanreal

    dyugle, Can you explain why real estate seems to be inversely tied to the BoC interest rate. It doesn’t make sense to me, but maybe I am missing something. Thanks

  24. BBY

    hmmm. There does seem to be some confusion regarding how steep the decline in population growth is within the province. However, it does mention people leaving Vancouver, even though they are entering the province. Makes sense with the large population growth in the eastern Fraser Valley and the okanogan, and Alberta. Ironically enough, though, inventory and prices seem to indicate a housing correction in those eastern areas as well. How odd.

  25. blueskies

    can you explain why real estate seems to be inversely tied to the BoC interest rate. It doesn’t make sense to me, but maybe I am missing something.

    a single rate hike takes approx 18 months to work its’ way through the economy.
    the last few hikes are now slowing the economy enough to actually have room for a drop, but a slowing economy is bad for RE prices, so now we can enjoy a ride down the up slope.

  26. $fromA$ia

    “the last few hikes are now slowing the economy enough to actually have room for a drop”

    Drop in what? Rates or RE?

    I mean this with the most sarcasm,”Vancouvers different you Jackass!”

  27. $fromA$ia

    Haha… Can you clarify your comment above Blue Skies?

  28. Strataman

    “the last few hikes are now slowing the economy enough to actually have room for a drop” which means if you can read the economy, a drop in economic production. The BOC as all National Banks try to slow the economy to prevent hyper inflation. Typically they overshoot because of the lag effect mentioned. The reduction in rate today will not take affect till next year at this time or probably longer. The Fed did the same but as usual Canada is a year or so behind. The US is slipping into recession although many say it is actually already there. (Probably true only hind sight will prove it). Canada will be in recession by the Olympics but real estate will drop before the recession which will actually contribute to a worse then normal recession.

  29. VAB

    How about this: The BoC hikes rates to stop the sort of trouble caused by bubbles. It stops hiking and starts cutting when the bubble has been defeated.

  30. Disbelief

    *
    VAB
    December 4, 2007 at 5:11 pm

    How about this: The BoC hikes rates to stop the sort of trouble caused by bubbles. It stops hiking and starts cutting when the bubble has been defeated.

    I guess everyday is the 4th of July at your house…..

  31. Jeff

    BoC sees risk to the economy and therefore cuts rates… simple!
    Unexpected, yes. Something to worry about, probably.

  32. VAB

    “I guess everyday is the 4th of July at your house…..”

    Hmm. I honestly cannot guess what you mean. I’m too optimistic? I like fireworks? What?

  33. VAB

    And by the way, I think you mean, “every day.”

  34. Annon

    The problem many don’t see:

    1. With the lowering of interest rate comes more money/debt created. Ideally, such debt should increase GDP. What happens if you pump as much money/debt as 15% of GDP and yet your GDP growth is only 1.5%+? It means all that debt that was created was only used to pay for inflated house and more layers of service fees.

    2. Why is there such a labour shortage? Just look at the many big box expansions for a market that doesn’t need more than it already had. Each new Wal-Mart/Best Buy creates 150+ direct full-time employees and many more indirect full/part time employees through related businesses. So basically what we end up having is more services to serve the same market. And more people are hired to share the same market. And as more people are hired, more people have money to buy houses. In parallel, low interest rate encouraged house purchases and through upgrades/newly built houses, many jobs were created. So it is a boom cycle that is consumer led and housing led … definitely not with sound fundamentals.

    Natural resources are good fundamentals as they bring real money into the market from outside. For BC, it’s actually doing very poorly and not many seem concerned which is really a scary thing. People don’t understand the danger of it. We are losing big revenue to lumber and tourism and now retails are losing business to the other side of the border. High Canadian dollar is really not a good thing.

  35. jesse

    Mortgage rates went up in the past 2 years and prices went up. Mortgage rates went down the two years before that and prices went up. It’s not the rate that’s the problem; it’s whether the borrower gets the loan approved.

    Rates moving by a small amount might marginalise a few buyers but if banks start to stiffen their lending, this will have a much larger effect.

  36. Jeff

    LA asking prices down about 8% in latest 4-months… (sale prices are probably worse)
    it took about 18-months to drop 8% up until August 2007…. and then 8% in just the latest 4-months.

    I think the pattern of the decline is typical… 8% in the first 18-months, 24% in the following 18-months, then about another 8% in the final 18-months.

    Over 4-5 years the LA price decline will probably total 40% +/-

    http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/LosAngeles-LongBeach-SantaAna/LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale

    I also predict the same for Vancouver.

  37. blueskies

    BoC sees enough slowing of growth to stop “hitting the brakes”, a rate drop today with the possibility of a 50 basis point rate drop in the US will bring us to parity in both the CDN$ and interest rates… that way we can both go to “hell in a hand basket” together…. how cozy!

  38. robchipman

    Yeah, makes sense. BoC policy is determined by Vancouver real estate prices. When that doesn’t work, its determined by Alberta real estate. A Canadian dollar at par with our largest trading partner probably has nothing to do with rate drops. The credit crunch is also not likely to enter into BOC rate calculations. Ontario’s manufacturing economy doesn’t even enter their calculations.

    (Tongue now removed from cheek).

    I’m under the impression that most observers recognize that the US is in a recession now, and we just have to wait for the numbers to confirm it. The combination of people dumping US dollars and commodoties driving ours up presents a pretty big challenge to our economy. It seems to me that as the US cuts rates to fight recession we have to race them down. I think things are unfolding in a predictable way, and we should expect more rate cuts.

  39. Strataman

    VAB “It stops hiking and starts cutting when the bubble has been defeated.” That is what it WANTS to do but since when or better yet when did that ever happen? This is the gov’t, not exactly the rapid response team! 🙂

  40. News Flash

    “Well we have now past the top of the market in Vancouver. This is if the BOC rate cut theory holds this time. The theory is simple. Once the BOC has approximately doubled its rate from the bottom to the top and then starts to cut the market has peaked. This has held true for the last three cycles in Vancouver R.E. starting in 1980 till today. If it holds this time (BOC raised rates from 2.25% to 4.5% and now cut to 4.25%) then the top is in the review mirror.”

    Except this time the BOC didn’t get to finish the rate hikes. It has been forced to lower rates due to the C$ and the US lowing rates.

    When was the last time real estate declined with a 5 year rate under 6% and on the way down? Never

    “its different this time
    Those are the four most costly words ever written.
    Good Luck.”

    Agreed, cause it would have to be different this time for prices to fall with the 5 year mortgage never hitting 6%.

    “I would recommend anyone selling to talk to their realtor and get your house price reduced for a quick sale will multiple offers.”

    Isn’t that the same recommendation you have had for 4 years now?

  41. Snick

    Squealer,

    Better to be out four years than be a debt slave for forty.

  42. Strataman

    “Agreed, cause it would have to be different this time for prices to fall with the 5 year mortgage never hitting 6%. ” They won’t because of that; it will be the high unemployment when the temporary construction workers are layed off due to an over supply. But you don’t have to worry I am a firm believer that real estate is a great investment over the long term. In 10 years you will be back to todays prices plus a bit. So why sweat it? The only people that will loose is the ones who can’t afford to keep the place for 6 to 10 years. 🙂

  43. Snick

    Oh, and about that shack that Aaron has listed on King Albert in Coquitlam…

    Pity the fool who plunks down anywhere NEAR that asking price (510K)

    There is a MUCH nicer and NEWER listing at 519K on Lighthouse in the tonier Ranch Park area.

    Still too high, mind you…

  44. vanreal

    I am sorry but isn’t the word “tonier” used in the same sentence as coquitlam an oxymoron. Just asking

  45. Dobos

    the hottest economy- and house price decreases 5.3% in Nov

    CBC article

    Edmonton realtors say it is now officially a buyer’s market as home prices fell 5.3 per cent in November, the biggest drop so far this year.

    Carolyn Pratt, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, said the market is correcting itself after reaching a peak in the spring when there was little to choose from and houses were selling quickly.

    The city’s market fell across the board last month:

    Single-family homes sold on average for $376,267, down 5.3 per cent.
    Condo sales averaged $252,277, down four per cent.
    Duplex/rowhouses sold on average for $311,193, down 15.4 per cent.
    It now takes an average of 51 days to sell a home.

    “Everybody is just taking a little more time now to buy because they are not feeling pressured as they did in the spring season,” said Pratt.

    “The economy as you know is the strongest in Canada, so there’s no reason to think that we won’t continue to have a very good real estate market.”

  46. Dobos

    The hottest economy and pricing decreases !!!!!!
    5.3% percent

    I dont think a .25% interest rate cut is gonna turn this tide,

    The Credit Crunch is still here and it is now looking like a decent time to invest smartly- however i think investing in RE is not the sector I would play

    Cheers

  47. Jay

    Could the high selling/buying be people making reasonable (in this market) deals in order to get out near, what many think, is the top of this cycle?

    The numbers seem more bullish lately but I don’t understand why. 🙂

  48. exx

    http://tinyurl.com/35dt8r

    Interesting article..

    “But Vancouver isn’t winning any popularity awards. More people left Vancouver for Abbotsford, B.C., Kelowna, B.C., Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton and even Sudbury, Ont., than came the other way.”

  49. AmPa

    Whoa, DUDE! Reading the above comments had a quadruple deja vu!

    Either its the BC bud I had after dinner, or it seems like the above its-the-end-for-Vancouver comments are exactly the same as the ones I read in 2003,2004,2005, and 2006.

  50. Brittany Spears

    Well,
    Get it right. Listen! That ‘s how you learn!
    OK. If you could be 50 years old and look back, what would you say? I say, I am 50. So Listen OK.
    You loose! No why? Because you are smater . Right?
    I have kids. I want them to benefit from my EXPERIENCE.
    If you are under 30, you are a kid.
    “What goes up, DOES go down!”
    Got a cell phone, i-pod, student loan, low down payment mortgage,lease vehicle…….
    Studied econonomics for 35 years? I have.
    Met 1,000,000,000 + people. I have.
    You are in for the ride of you life, without real money (fiat dollars)- look it up stupid.
    Good luck, cause old fat bastards like me and guys older than me will suck every PRODUCTIVE dollar you SPEND (not save) out of of you.
    Know why? Because we do NOT produce, we sit.

    Regards,
    100,000,000 baby boomers. ( The ones who have controlled YOUR destiny and all markets since you were born)

  51. Brittany Spears

    Spend your life and all of your time paying your mortgage idiot! Time over all will not give a shit,
    You are spec in time. Earth = 5,000,000,000 years old. Do something positive, contribute to the earth for future generations, instead of consuming.
    Check your ego at he door.

  52. Annon

    I guess the best way to see if AmPa is truely doing well in the long term, may be AmPa would be so kind to point out the detail of his investment in RE (location, house detail, and cost) and we will run an annual status check and cheer for him for every year that he makes more gain on his RE investment. Or maybe AmPa is like all the bulls that can not give straight answer to a simple question?

  53. Popeye

    Ampa and News flash, why don’t you just come straight out and tell us what’s bugging you?…goes for the rest of you ‘bulls’ too.

    These two and others are typical of the mostly 30-year-olds who, in mid 2005 or so, jumped on the fast-moving RE train and now want to get off.

    They are probably those who slept overnight on the street to get a spot in the line for the gala opening of a developer’s dog-and-pony-show, most likely snapping up a pre-sale or two which they now realize they can’t flip.

    I mean really, how can you keep insisting day after day, week after week, month after month, that everything is rosy here in greater Van, and everybody else is wrong etc. etc. Sheesh!

    The Bears here can only conclude that your only motive to blog here is to quietly unload your stuff on the ‘greater fool’ you hope will read your utterly boring, tedious, pointless, and mindless arguments.

    Bulls, listen up! Admit the Bears are right in their analysis because they are dealing with present-day FACTS, not FANTASY. There are just too many negative market indicators.

    If you speculated or even invested in this market to any degree, you would be wise to get rid of your over-priced junk now. And do it at a steep discount while there are a few suckers left….because if you don’t “your credit will be so messed up your mamma won’t loan you money!”

  54. coco

    CBC article is based on Statistics Canada 2006 census. Seems Toronto is the center of the universe for immigration when you go to Stats Can website. Vancouver losing immigrants might have something to do with the highest housing prices in all of Canada?

  55. coco

    Last year Winnipeg attracted the most immigrants and the housing is much cheaper there. Maybe immigrants are more financially prudent and not as rich as some people make them out to be.

  56. coco

    Greater Vancouver Migration Component 1991-2005

    http://tinyurl.com/3y5nxl

  57. Snick

    vanreal
    December 4, 2007 at 9:29 pm
    I am sorry but isn’t the word “tonier” used in the same sentence as coquitlam an oxymoron. Just asking

    Ever heard of “Westwood Plateau”?

  58. coco

    Canfor closing sawmill in Chetwynd, BC, affecting 188 employees

    http://tinyurl.com/2fwtgj

  59. coco

    Seems BoC overstepped its boundaries yesterday….

    Credit crisis shows need to update Bank of Canada Act

    http://tinyurl.com/2da3eb

  60. coco

    The lawsuits begin….

    Merrill Lynch, Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank have been sent subpoenas from the office of the New York state attorney general, which wants to know about how mortgages were sliced up and resold to investors.

  61. coco

    Lingering credit woes continue….

    Bank of Canada injected C$635 million into markets on Tuesday to lower the overnight interest rate toward the central bank’s target and improve liquidity.

  62. WoW

    UK prices – 3 months of decline, 10% drop for 2008 predicted by major institution…housing moving into full recession in one of the strongest global markets.

    But its different here…sunny all the time, no traffic, etc.

  63. AmPa

    Whoa, dudes! Why all the hating!? I love you all. Merry Christmas!

    Just give me a call, I’ll give you condo for only $599 per square foot. But don’t tell anyone. Last time my stupid realtor told everyone, and the idiots put in so many offers that it sold for $699 per quare foot.

    I meant WTF, dudes. These idiots putting offers were so out of touch with the online blogs and forums that they didn’t know the Vancouver market crashed backed in 2004.

  64. WoW

    “National housing market statistics had lost much significance over the last three years due to a marked divergence in performance between the West and the rest,” TD said in a statement.

    But after bottoming out in late 2006, residential resale markets in Ontario and Quebec — and Atlantic Canada to a lesser degree — are expected to accelerate, picking up the slack as Western markets move into a “massive cool down.”

  65. WoW

    Don’t worry AmPa – they will learn the same way they always do – after the fact – guess their cousin’s down in Florida couldn’t afford the long-distance charges to call them and let them know how fundamentals always come home to roost.

    Fools and their money, eh.

  66. blueskies

    “massive cool down.”

    wow! who wouldda thunk it?

  67. Tony Stark

    Home prices in the U.K. fell for a third month, increasing speculation the Bank of England will lower interest rates when it meets tomorrow. Their benchmark rate current stands at 5.75%, a six year high. While the Bank remains concerned about inflation, rising credit costs are a clear and present danger for the U.K. housing market and economy.

  68. chip

    Rob said:

    “I’m under the impression that most observers recognize that the US is in a recession now, and we just have to wait for the numbers to confirm it.”

    To be in a recession the US would technically need to have two quarters of negative growth.

    Yet, the last quarter was a sizzling 4.9%.

    And so far for this quarter, productivity growth in November was over 6% — the best number since 2003, while the services sector (about 90% of the economy) continued to expand and the new jobs number for last month was triple analysts’ expectations.

    The US is going to slow, no doubt, but the recession isn’t here, if it arrives at all.

  69. nostradamos

    The solution to “high” Real Estate prices in Vancouver is “high” Real Estate prices in Vancouver.

    “I am the smartest man alive!”

  70. blueskies

    nostradamus

    circular logic or RE talk?

  71. Annon

    Well, US housing is in recession for sure (declining for more than 2 quarters straight). And not everyone believes in the job data released by the BLS simply because it contradicts what the market is seeing. And the M3 increased by over 18% so far this year yet the growth is a mere low single digit % which isn’t that great (that is if you again believe the government released data).

  72. robchipman

    Chip:

    And yet I read in the MSM, fairly regularly, that the US is fighting recession. That, really is my problem. We generaly pronounce the R word in reverse, once the numbers are in, but I’m not certain we’re following that pattern now. Are the observers I’m reading just out to lunch? Has the US re-invented its economy?

  73. WoW

    Hi – if OIL prices continue to cool (but still stay high) , will Alberta continue to accelerate to the downside, in terms of housing euphoria?

  74. mk-kids

    Has anyone kep a running tab of the corporate welfare the BoC has injected since this crap started in August? I’d love to know the total. This should be headline news!

    I really don’t understand how/why this is happening… it seems the banks, who have seen record profits over the past decade, should have to pony up their own cash for their “mistakes”… perhaps someone could explain.

  75. DaMann

    Manipulating the numbers?

    Here is an interesting little tidbit. I have a friend that recently moved to Victoria and has been very actively watching the market. He has noted many many properties that sold. In particular he has watched the “re-lists”. He has found a few dozen properties that were listed at a certain price, didn’t sell after a few price drops and months on market. Then the property gets relisted ( new mls #) at a lower price and then sells a few weeks later at a lot lower of a price than the original listing.
    So in a nutshell here are a few numbers with the “spin” and without.
    If you take into account the original listing price the average days on market was 96 with a sale price of 10.7% below list.
    Here are the spin numbers if you don’t include the original listing and only go by the re-list with a new mls #
    Average days on market 20 with a sale price 1.6% below list.
    Now this is not all sales of course, only the sales that he could catch and cross reference with the original listing of a different mls number.

    Now I know some of the first responses will be ” Well they were overpriced to begin with” Well if that is the case then saying a house sold x% overlist by that logic means it was underpriced to begin with so there really was no sale over list price.

    I know which numbers the Victoria RE board would rather print. Which looks better for them? Average days on market 96 with 10.7% below list price sale or average days on market 20 with a sale price of 1.6% below list.

    Of course this will not change the average and median home price, the sale price is the sale price. But one set of numbers sure looks like a cooler market than the other.

  76. coco

    Chip,

    U.S. corporate profits are in recession.

    http://tinyurl.com/27zblq

  77. coco

    U.S. Bond Insurers face capital shortfalls, may falter

    http://tinyurl.com/2zdnxt

  78. coco

    Fraser Valley Nov 2007 Stats:

    http://tinyurl.com/2jy7yn

    Prices down from last month.

  79. coco

    Calgary city of choice for new immigrants
    28% growth among fastest in Canada

    http://tinyurl.com/yvyx4g

  80. coco

    B.C. attracts more people from Alberta than from any other province

    http://tinyurl.com/2lqkzu

  81. Wet Coaster

    But all said, nothing that happens in the US: recession, depression housing crisis will have any effect on the Vancouver housing market because “Vancouver is the most beautiful place on earth, everyone wants to live here, and dirt is scarce, it’s good value, it’s only going to go up, the Olympics…………yada yada yadda” Sound familiar?

  82. DaMann

    Is that a typo in the Fraser valley numbers? White Rock down 16% month over month for average price and down 20% median. What on earth is happening there??! It’s actually now offically a year over year decrease of 1.7% and 1.4% respectively.

    Month over month all areas except N.Delta down.

  83. DaMann

    Freeze mortgage rates for 5 years? So much for capitalism. If you make money then a free market is good, if things go to hell, let’s change all the rules.

    Somthing seriously wrong with those Fraser Valley stats. Not onyl are there really ugly negatives everwhere but I think all the info is wrong.

    N. Delta appartment median price down 85% in one month yet year over year it’s still up 6%? I think who ever put the stat package together was on crack

  84. blueskies

    Bush is expected to outline on Thursday a plan to freeze mortgage rates for five years.

    the overall effect will be to freeze the availability of mortgage money.

    any investors interested in financing mortgages will think twice about being repaid in full.

    a really dumb politically motivated decision.
    the ramifications on this were never fully thought out.

  85. Noname

    Blueskies,

    I was wondering about the ramifications myself.

    It will be interesting to see who will put up their hard earned money to fund subsequent mortgages that will be guaranteed by law never to be paid back.

    Noname,

  86. Snick

    “…a really dumb politically motivated decision.
    the ramifications on this were never fully thought out.” – blueskies

    Like his criminal invasion of Iraq

    “Never underestimate the stupidity factor as a determinant of history.”

  87. DaMann – you need to look a little lower on the page to see the sample size for the median and average price data. When the sample size is low, the numbers rarely make any sense.

    The sample size was only 5 sales in that area for the month so if only the cheaper apartments sold during November and the more expensive ones sold during October you get the kind of number we see in the FVREB stats package.

    It is interesting to see some significant price declines and some very significant moderating of price growth the past couple months. We will see if it continues into the spring and spreads to the REBGV.

  88. chip

    Coco

    To say corporate profits are in a recession is just a rhetorical flourish. It simply means profits are falling for some companies, particularly in the banking sector. The November ADP number came in at 189,000 jobs. That’s pretty astounding, and a better pointer to the state of business than the story you cited which, BTW, relied on a quote from Merrill’s Rosenberg, who has been predicting a recession every year for the last decade.

  89. coco

    Blueskies, Noname

    I have read that the Bush Plan for the mortgage bailout will only help 12% of people who are making their mortgage payments on time, but can’t afford the higher payment when their mortgage resets. They will have to prove this, if you can afford the higher payment then you will not qualify.

    A number of people are going to protest this bill if it passes, as they believe it is just a bailout on the back of taxpayers.

    All of this is a huge mess and now this new problem with the bond insurers (link posted earlier), they say the government will have to bail the bond insurers out too as various states/municipalities will go broke if they don’t.

  90. coco

    Chip,

    Here is the U.S. Commerce Dept. link that mentions the corporate profits dropping. Although GDP is up, corporate profits are down.

    http://tinyurl.com/36mk6s

    It maybe kind of hard to keep hiring people or maintain current staffing levels if corporate profits are shrinking.

  91. coco

    The U.S. Labor Department’s validation of ADP payroll numbers, or lack thereof, will come at 8:30 am on Friday.

  92. Annon

    Bush is brainless. Problem with freezing teaser mortgage rates:

    1. Subprime’s teaser rate is lower than Fed’s rate. Who is going to take even more losses on those mortgages that do not make money for another 5 years?

    2. This goes to tell you who Bush and Bernanke are protecting – their big corporate friends. Politicians are too busy trying to look good while they are in the office. They created bubbles, panicked, lowered rates, wasted tax payers’ money, broke laws … = sinking of USD.

    3. Moral hazard. If you want to keep your teaser rate, all you need to do is to stop paying even if you are able to keep your payment current.

    4. Bush is stopping borrowers from moving away from being enslaved for life by huge debts. When you are technically bankrupt, walking away by means of bankruptcy is the best way.

    5. Changing rules on signed contracts is breaking the law. I don’t know what Bush is thinking but he surely is one president that broke most laws in the oval office.

    6. Who’s paying for further losses if even at a teaser rate, there are defaults? Tax payers’ money? Is the government authorized to do that? We all know central banks worldwide is used to printing money.

  93. Annon

    chip:

    “….Merrill’s Rosenberg, who has been predicting a recession every year for the last decade.”

    The last decade eh? Why did someone need to predict a recession when US was already in recession during 2001~2003?

    I guess talk is always cheap and one does not need to bear much consequence from talking BS.

  94. $fromA$ia

    I prefer this B?ritney Spears over SatV and Geezer any day.

    Britney, you have such an angle on today’s RE BOOOM. It’s kinda refreshing to this blog, Id say especially since you started going comando and left those streaky undies back at home. EW~! 😛

  95. blueskies

    WSJ excellent article re: credit debacle

    http://tinyurl.com/2xuzx3

  96. chip

    Annon

    Hello, flunk reading comprehension at school?

    No one denied there was a recession. I said Rosenberg is always predicting one.

    I’ll use smaller words next time …

  97. Geezer

    Popeye wrote:
    “I mean really, how can you keep insisting day after day, week after week, month after month, that everything is rosy here in greater Van, and everybody else is wrong etc. etc. Sheesh!”

    The bears have been beating their tired old drum and claiming everybody else is wrong, etc., etc., for four years. Sheesh!

  98. blueskies

    geezer! you still around?

    you can polish a turd all you want but at some point Mr.Market will make you eat it.

  99. Annon

    Did professor Geezer ever witness a housing market that does not come down from peak? Wonder which planet professor Geezer used for his thesis if he has seen one that only goes up? I am sure even bears are interested in knowing such mature wisdom from professor Geezer. And then of course, professor Geezer may feel proud to offer Mars as it just happened to be one of the planets that is seeing RE activity to have just begun. Oh yeah, people are already selling rights on Mars. Way to go, professor Geezer!!!

  100. $fromA$ia

    So if Canadian RE turns around and corrects what will happen to Vancouver?

    Does 2010 Olympics save this city from the tide going out?

    Blues Skies, Annon care to offer some food for thought or how about that 2 cents that you’ve been saving to put down on that $500k tear down in East Van?

  101. News Flash

    Popeye:
    “Ampa and News flash, why don’t you just come straight out and tell us what’s bugging you?”

    Nothing…life is good. How about you?

    “These two and others are typical of the mostly 30-year-olds who, in mid 2005 or so, jumped on the fast-moving RE train and now want to get off.”

    If I wanted off it is as easy as one phone call. You on the other couldn’t get on if you wanted. At least I have a choice.

    “They are probably those who slept overnight on the street to get a spot in the line for the gala opening of a developer’s dog-and-pony-show, most likely snapping up a pre-sale or two which they now realize they can’t flip.”

    Sounds like you wished you’d been in line.

    “I mean really, how can you keep insisting day after day, week after week, month after month, that everything is rosy here in greater Van, and everybody else is wrong etc. etc. Sheesh!”

    Well you have been wrong as you say…day after day, week after week, month after month. I might add year after year.

    “The Bears here can only conclude that your only motive to blog here is to quietly unload your stuff on the ‘greater fool’ you hope will read your utterly boring, tedious, pointless, and mindless arguments.”

    Well the bears have concluded everything else wrong why spoil a perfect record.

    “Bulls, listen up! Admit the Bears are right in their analysis because they are dealing with present-day FACTS, not FANTASY. There are just too many negative market indicators.”

    Ever wonder why rich people keep getting richer and poor people keep getting poorer? You don’t understand the indicators. Just like you didn’t understand them in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006.

    “If you speculated or even invested in this market to any degree, you would be wise to get rid of your over-priced junk now. And do it at a steep discount while there are a few suckers left….because if you don’t “your credit will be so messed up your mamma won’t loan you money!” ”

    The bears offered the same advice a few years ago. I didn’t take it and it worked out quite well for me. How did it work out for you?

  102. News Flash

    “the overall effect will be to freeze the availability of mortgage money.”

    I thought all mortgage money was frozen last August?

  103. News Flash

    “you can polish a turd all you want but at some point Mr.Market will make you eat it.”

    How do they taste? You have been eating them for some time now.

  104. Jay

    I have noticed decreases in areas (New West, Burnaby, White Rock etc) over the last little bit. By this I mean I have been keeping an eye on a few areas and the prices are a bit lower now. They’re still quite ridiculous but it’s a sign! Vancouver RE doesn’t seem to be slowing as much (no big surprise there).

  105. Annon

    $fromA$ia:
    “Annon care to offer some food for thought or how about that 2 cents that you’ve been saving to put down on that $500k tear down in East Van?”

    Ah, there isn’t much more to say really. I mean we have done this boring back and forth bear/bull thing. Bears or bulls, do whatever you please. I am a bear so I give my less than 2 cents. Yes, it’s less than 2 cents but I am still grateful I can say it here. Thanks to Rob. Now about real 2 cents that I have been saving for the $500k dump site, …. hohoho, you’d be surprised to know that friends and family that didn’t go beyond their means just so they can feel the fulfillment of owning a house are saving a lot faster and living a very decent life style.

  106. Snick

    Give it up, Rob. Admit that YOU are Newsflash.

  107. coco

    U.S. Luxury Home builder Toll Brothers Reports $81.8 Million Loss

    http://tinyurl.com/24dmmm

    (worse lost in 21 years since the company has been public and the only loss in 50 years when the company was private before that)

  108. coco

    CIBC makes profit, but warns on subprime exposure

    http://tinyurl.com/3b7kcx

    “As of Oct. 31, the notional value of the bank’s hedged exposure was $9.3-billion, and the fair value of the exposure that’s recorded on the balance sheet was $4-billion.”

    “Market and economic conditions relating to these counterparties may change in the future, which could result in significant future losses,” the bank cautioned”

  109. coco

    A Bank of Canada report says an unexpected shock in the already jittery global financial markets would have a profound effect on Canada’s economy, possibly threatening the viability of some companies.

    http://tinyurl.com/2yduzl

  110. coco

    Credit woes continue…(amounts are a little less, but not even close to the norm yet which is 25 million)

    Bank of Canada is leaving C$300 million in the Large Value Transfer System on Wednesday and plans to leave C$150 million in the system on Thursday.

  111. coco

    U.S. auto loans and credit card delinquencies on the rise…of course, these loans are packaged up into the commercial paper market too.

  112. coco

    United Airlines Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., Continental Airlines Inc. and Southwest Airlines Co. cut 2008 U.S. capacity plans on mounting concern that rising oil prices and a weakening economy will erode earnings.

  113. blueskies

    news flash: i suggested the mortgage market could seize up, not that it had.

    the party stopped in Aug and we will continue to see credit problems for quite sometime yet.

  114. blueskies

    $asia$ sorry to disappoint you.
    i am a cashed out bear, and will remain so until the speculative excesses are driven from the market.

    we sold all our holdings including our principal residence and are now renting.

    we have close to a million$ to play with.

    it may already too late for some to get out of the market intact, but that’s life in the big city.

  115. blueskies

    this is what a tough credit climate looks like….not pretty at all

    http://tinyurl.com/2hbg52

  116. $fromA$ia

    You do know that to immigrate to Canada you have to have a fat cheque book.

    You don’t think that outside money from immigrants are now fueling the RE market peak to continue?

    China and India are strong developing countries with the rich from there wanting to immigrate to Canada, namely YVR.

    What do you think is going to be the trend next with rich immigration still comming and paying our high RE prices, and the impending credit crunch?

  117. $fromA$ia

    BTW I cashed out too, $350k 🙂

  118. DaMann

    Mohican

    Yes you are right. Looked at the numbers more closely last night and totally over looked the sample size for some of the data on the Fraser Valley numbers.

    The numbers are still bearish though.

  119. Anonymous

    Renters with cash….so much for all the poor, frustrated, renters who will never be able to afford to buy comments.

  120. $fromA$ia

    Can you immagine Blue Skies is getting at least 4% on a cool million. $40k a year.

    Better make sure your investments are diversified and underwritten.

  121. coco

    Homeownership a Major Priority For New Canadian Immigrants

    http://tinyurl.com/26u564

    “Respondents also shared some concerns common among all home buyers, including high housing costs (90 per cent), and saving for a downpayment
    (83 per cent).”

    (Seems immigrants pockets are not as deep and as free spending/throw caution to the wind as some people think, if the majority of immigrants have the same concerns as the rest of us)

  122. coco

    Canadian Commercial Paper Lawsuit….

    Vancouver’s Canacord Capital Corp. sues Scotia Bank for bad investing.

    http://tinyurl.com/2cmabs

  123. $fromA$ia

    Coco, do you think that purchasing Bank Stock is wise with all this loose lending?

    My investers digest mentions periodically investing in certain banks. My thought is when credit crunch hits harder that those stocks may drop?

  124. Dignan

    “Homeownership a Major Priority For New Canadian Immigrants”

    Report brought to you by Genworth Financial, Canada’s number 1 most unbiased company with nothing to gain from the report itself. In another report, Toronto saw more immigrants than anywhere else in the country. Hmmmm, you think the immigrants know a bit about value?

  125. Tony Danza

    Who cares if NewsFlash is Rob? Anyone can post with multiple handles, I’m not saying he is, just who cares?

  126. coco

    $fromA$ia,

    Personally, I think there will be a buying opportunity for banking stocks in the future, but I would wait as there will be more subprime losses for Canadian banks next quarter. Credit conditions have deteriorated since the banks reported their last quarterly results recently.

    Something is wrong when Tiffany’s has stellar profits and their stock continues to slide.

  127. househunter

    Vancouver west side homes will push slightly higher or balance out – staying healthy. Simply too much demand and barely any supply. Its a niche market that requires only a smalll number of rich people – no shortage of this cohort barring a natural disaster. Not sure if this will change even if the maket slightly goes lower in the valley. We’re not going to see a mass sell off like I would absolutely love to see. This will remain healthy. High rises outside of Vancouver will not get the action downtown will see. Slight corrections coming there because the supply is beginning to build up; at least there will be some choice out there for you. No freakin idea about the frazer valley. that is a crap shoot for me.

  128. paulb

    I love how you speak as if you have a crystal ball. Very modest.

  129. WoW

    I wait for the bulls to tell us how this is positive for RE.

    1,800 lost jobs in one month
    Two more mill closures add to grim total in lumber industry; B.C.’s North hit hardest
    Gordon Hamilton, Vancouver Sun
    Published: Thursday, December 06, 2007
    British Columbia’s reeling forest sector felt another blow Wednesday when two major lumber companies announced indefinite closures affecting more than 200 workers.

    Canfor Corp. said it is indefinitely shutting down its Chetwynd sawmill, laying off 188 workers in the province’s northeastern Peace River region. And Tolko Industries said its Soda Creek mill at Williams Lake in the central Interior is laying off a shift, costing about 20 workers their jobs.

    The twin curtailments push the number of B.C. forest industry layoffs in the last month alone to more than 1,800 people. And another 224 jobs will disappear later this month when Weyerhaeuser shuts down its Okanagan Falls mill Dec. 17.

  130. robchipman

    Tony:

    I care whether people think I’m using multiple handles or not. I don’t mind other people using multiple handles, but I don’t do it and I don’t post anonymously. Anyone (Snick included) is welcome to come by and compare any of my IPs with any comments on this blog to see if there is any correlation.

    Additionally, anyone who questions the numbers is welcome to come by and see how they are generated.

    There is one condition for both visits: the visitor has to post the results of their visit on the blog 🙂

    Sorry about no numbers for the last few days. I’ve been very busy.

  131. robchipman

    WoW:

    Lumber is definitely taking it in the ear right now. In regard to the Chetwynd layoffs, my understanding is that there will be an investment in the Ft. St. John mill and they’ll just truck the logs there. You still lose the Chetwynd jobs, mind you, but I think the idea is to make that part more efficient.

    Another thing I heard is that non-bugwood fibre is having a hard time competing with the bugwood – higher stumpage, high dollar, depressed US building. That’s bad, short term for a lot of the area north of PG/Vanderhoof. Its good, long term, however – they’ll have lots of high quality fibre when the lumber economy turns around.

    Short term this has got to hurt interior values, but the upside is that city folk may be able to acquire cheaper rec property in the not too distant future (hey, you asked for spin, and that’s the best I can do! 🙂 On a serious note, the lumber business has some big challenges. Anyone got any JP/Canfor comments/insight? )

  132. Annon

    chip

    “..No one denied there was a recession. I said Rosenberg is always predicting one…”

    So at least he Rosenberg was right from 2001~2003 right? And it’s been 4 years since 2003 and he’s only predicting a recession starting 2005. So at most, he’s been wrong for 2 years. But the point is, if not for Fed (or central banks worldwide), the 2003 recession would not have been masked by bubbles as if the recession really went away. You have to wonder what have we all been really doing to bring about this prosperity? Nothing more than 2003 except that a lot of people are buying/upgrading houses, and with that, buying a lot of items and building a lot.

  133. Snick

    Tony Danza
    December 6, 2007 at 9:46 am
    Who cares if NewsFlash is Rob? Anyone can post with multiple handles, I’m not saying he is, just who cares?

    I do. Don’t be so idiotic.

  134. deb

    do you think Kraft paper mills might be affected too?

  135. robchipman

    Snick:

    Call first, arrange a time, and you can see for yourself which comments are coming from who. You can also see how the numbers are downloaded.

    If you’re not willing to do that you have to stop making foolish accusations.

  136. News Flash

    BS: “we sold all our holdings including our principal residence and are now renting.”

    What year/month did you sell?

    Where do you keep the cash now?

  137. News Flash

    “I do. Don’t be so idiotic.”

    I have been called a lot worse than Rob.

  138. Snick

    Like what? “Squealer” from George Orwell’s “Animal Farm”?

    If not, do reveal.

  139. Geezer

    blueskies wrote:

    “you can polish a turd all you want but at some point Mr.Market will make you eat it.”

    Yech! And now you’re wishing that fate on me too?

    Try a good single malt whiskey, that might get the taste out of your mouth, but after all those years of eating that stuff I’m not sure if anything will work for you.

  140. Geezer

    Annon wrote:

    “Did professor Geezer ever witness a housing market that does not come down from peak? Wonder which planet professor Geezer used for his thesis if he has seen one that only goes up? I am sure even bears are interested in knowing such mature wisdom from professor Geezer.”

    In the unlikely event that your memory capacity is greater than that of a goldfish you might recall that I have never made such an absurd claim – often accused of it but never made it, it’s just another oft’ repeated bearish delusion.

    Recently I even posted the bear’s most cherished religious icon, the Sauder chart of actual Vancouver RE prices for every year since 1975. It should really impress you because Sauder is a real professor you know!

    My position is, and has always been, that in the long term (repeat: the long term), RE prices always go up. Do you disagree with that statement?

    Here is that Sauder chart again, just for the slow learners. And yes, I noticed what happened in 81/82 when interest rates hit 23%. I also willingly admit that if 23% rates return it will have a very negative effect on RE – happy?

    While you are looking at it try and see if you can detect a long term trend. If you are not familiar with reading charts ask a friend to explain it to you.

    http://tinyurl.com/8tmn5

  141. Annon

    Thanks Geezer. Then you must also know that inflation adjusted real dollar value of the house is that house price gain is rated no more than 2~3% per year statistically. And while long term house price does go up at such rate, today’s price has seen rapid gains for at least 3+ years, a correction back to nominal gains is NOT too much to ask, is it? And if that’s the case, wouldn’t it be people’s best interest to NOT enter the market now (that is if they have a choice)?

  142. anonymixer

    Sauder is a real professor you know

    Geez, I thought that Sauder School of Business was named for Billy Sauder – former honcho at Interfor. I don’t believe that he was a professor as you profess.

  143. Geezer

    Anonymous wrote:
    “Then you must also know that inflation adjusted real dollar value of the house is that house price gain is rated no more than 2~3% per year statistically.”

    Actually, I think that’s a mild bull argument. Over the long term it always goes up, tax free and you get to live in it too.

    Anonymous also wrote:
    “And while long term house price does go up at such rate, today’s price has seen rapid gains for at least 3+ years, a correction back to nominal gains is NOT too much to ask, is it?”

    Given that some bears like to point out that RE prices only recently got back to where they were 25 years ago I think we have had a lot of catching up to do. Are we there yet?

    I believe an upward correction was long, long overdue. This upward correction will, at some point, run out of steam and I fully expect a few years of single digit “nominal” gains will follow when it finally does end.

    Who knows? Prices could even drop. Will the market stall this winter, next fall, summer of 2010? I don’t know but if I was forced to make a wild guess I would say price growth will slow down substantially sometime in the next two years.

    I reserve the right to change that wild guess as the future unfolds. As usual, there are just too many wild cards out there for anybody to predict with certainty where the market will go in the short term.

  144. Geezer

    Anonymixer wrote:
    “Geez, I thought that Sauder School of Business was named for Billy Sauder – former honcho at Interfor. I don’t believe that he was a professor as you profess.”

    Sorry, you are right, I’m mixing up my Sauder chart with my Schiller chart. Schiller is the Prof.

    Thanks for pointing it out.

  145. anonymixer

    I’m mixing up my Sauder chart with my Schiller chart. Schiller is the Prof.

    And what does Prof. Schiller have to say about Vancouver RE?

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