There were 127 new listings yesterday and 81 sales, for a sell/list of 63.78. Inventory reached 10,829 and over 90s were 2,853 or 26.35%.
Filed under Daily Numbers
Can you explain, again, (sorry) what over 90s are? Maybe you can put a “terms” section in the sidebar for people like me who can’t remember RE terminology. (As if you weren’t busy enough…)
Listed over the standard 90 days on MLS “the listing was extended”
Over 90s indicate listings that have had plenty of exposure but still haven’t sold. I equate them to expired listings, or an indication of the upper end of the market/what buyers WON’T pay.
The larger the number, the more market resistance.
Holy mother of god. The down turn has come.
Wall Street Bloodbath: Layoffs Keep Growing
Other news….. a Norway brokerage firm files for bankruptcy due to bad subprime investments and four towns are broke because of it.
At the risk of igniting the “but that’s the US, not us” contingent, an interesting development in Seattle. Townhouse median prices are down 13.6% from October 2006: http://tinyurl.com/3aee8k
“Holy mother of god. The down turn has come”.
Check Rob’s blog for this time last year – same numbers
Johnnyrent: Year-over-year comparisons are so passé. Three-year rolling averages are what you want to look at now, and they tell us that everything is rosy. 🙂
Calgary non-US related article!
thanks blueskies, starting to really scrape the bottom of the demand barrel with that 40 year amortization period.
ya. That was a snoozefest . lol
got a cold call from a RE agent tonight
told her the affordability issue was
going to sink the RE market …
look at Calif and add 14 months….
she strongly disagreed but will call back in 6 months.
R/E prices cannot go down here. Why? Because people smoking to much of that funny stuff.
I think the time will come when even Newsflash or Skeptic or tqn will talk less and learn. An no matter how sometimes Rob’s messages seem to blur the real issue/questions (whether intended or not), RE is just crazy in Vancouver. It’s quite clear that the rest of the world is playing catch up with US. Bad news is bad news even if the stock market rises on bad news. In fact smart traders should be glad that the market moves up with bad news. There is still a chance to reduce risk even if it means loss.
Just sold my townhouse in Abbotsford. One showing, one phone call ,one offer. My neighbour sold last month, 10 showings, sold in 6 days for 5% more than mine. Is this a sign of things to come?
I was selling real estate in 1982 when fear turned to panic. At one point I was reducing prices on the same listings by 10%.
POP! goes the bubble. The writing is on the wall.
Canada’s productivity growth falls to ‘depressing’ level
U.S. economic woes bode ill for Canada
“House prices in Britain fell at their sharpest rate in more than 12 years in November, in the most dramatic warning sign yet that the housing market could be heading for a very serious slowdown.”
Cracking down on Craigslist crimes
The online classifieds are home to thieves, con artists, prostitution.
(Not sure how honest Vancouver Craigslist is, but article is still an eye opener)
The productivity gauge is the true measure of the health of our economy. Once commods cycle out of their highs and the construction boom ends we won’t be left with a pretty picture.
That Calgary article is scary. One of the things that is shocking is to be reminded how much lower their prices are and how, despite the fact that, unlike Vancouver they actually have industry and high-paying jobs, they are up against the wall in terms of affordability.
“I think the time will come when even Newsflash or Skeptic or tqn will talk less and learn.”
Learn what, may I ask? Sitting behind the bench, being scary and whinny all the time? Thanks but no thanks.
Stop reading too much all the scary news or you would not even dare to sleep on your own bed.
A few things that people really need to learn are to cross out of their comfort zone once a while, take the risk, know where to stop, and live does requiring sacrifying one thing for others. Oh no, I am getting old!!! 🙂
Let’s try this question on tqn. How many years have you been on RE? Mind you I couldn’t get straight answers to such simple question from Newsflash and Satv.
Further to Coco’s comment:
(It could never happen here!)
It is worth pointing that housing troubles are not restricted to the U.S. alone. U.K. home prices dropped the most in12 years and mortgage approvals fell to the lowest level in since February 2005. Home prices fell 0.8% in October while mortgage approvals slipped to 88,000 loans from 100,000 in September. According to the Nationwide Building Society, house price in the U.K. could fail to rise in 2008 due to higher borrowing costs and weaker economic conditions.
“Let’s try this question on tqn. How many years have you been on RE? ”
Does it matter how many years I have been on RE, or how much experience I have to on RE? Do fewer years and less experience mean that I am not gonna make it?
Bottomline, I don’t care about the numbers that are posted. Every relator I talk to says the market is slowing BIG TIME! Its just a matter of time before it shows up in the numbers.
Get ready Lower Mainland the party is over!
Its a matter of time when real estate starts to slow down BIG TIME.
Experts have predicted after 2012 we would see a slowdown. But till then it will go, at a much slower rate.
Tony Stark said…
“Every relator I talk to says the market is slowing BIG TIME!”
Monday…We saw 120 listings and 160 sales for a sell/list of 133.33%
i MUCH prefer hard numbers than “lots of for sale signs on my street” or “i was talking with a realtor”
jeepers! 120 listings and 160 sales and we hear “the market is slowing BIG TIME”
“Bottomline, I don’t care about the numbers that are posted. Every relator I talk to says the market is slowing BIG TIME! Its just a matter of time before it shows up in the numbers.
Get ready Lower Mainland the party is over!”
why do we have to care soo much anyway? for me, it’s very entertaining.
Those “numbers” are not current. They reflect past closings that are, in fact, quite old.
Don’t believe “Squealer” ( aka Rob) of “Animal Farm” on this site.
PS…just like the times indicated for each posting. He hasn’t even bothered to adjust for the time change.
Snick is an idiot.
No, he’s a realist.
The numbers might be 2-weeks old if you are referring to a sale taking place (Sold date), then subject removal (5 days avg), then deposit received (1-2 days), then the Realtor reporting the sale (1-2 days), then the RE Board reporting the sale (1-2 days).
Keep in mind that RE markets take a very long time to show changes months and years… look at the US where it has been down now for 18-months and the decline is just getting underway. Probably another 18-months of steep declines, followed by another 18-months of smaller declines before the US bottoms out… 4-5 years total.
What is 2-weeks in the grand scheme of things?
I agree on a national level it takes a while but in single city markets I have to disagree. 81 here happened in a flash.
Miami and Vegas took less than 2 years to fall 40%
“What is 2-weeks in the grand scheme of things?”
Or, two years? Why be a chump AND a debt slave at the same time?
Spin that, Squealer.
Rob’s numbers reflect only a portion of the Vancouver RE market. They don’t look at the rest of the Lowermainland. The Vancouver RE market seems to be cooling but still on the hot side. The other areas seem to be cooling a lot quicker but still a bit on the warm side. It seems our correction will happen but at a very gradual decline. I don’t know if we’ll crash hard. The downturn may be in full effect in a couple of years.
The odd part is many ‘experts’ call for the Vancouver RE market to keep getting hotter. That would be sad.
“The odd part is many ‘experts’ call for the Vancouver RE market to keep getting hotter. That would be sad.” – Grin and Bear It
Ever read what the “experts” have said in the past? In the old newsclippings?
A visit to the old VHB site may be in order.
Then you’ll see what a bunch of losers they were.
What area do you/do you not include?
Experts have predicted after 2012 we would see a slowdown. But till then it will go, at a much slower rate.”
Hey man consider the source, what does it take to call yourself an expert. I have a friend with a masters degree in economics that say things are way out of wack!
Two random data points:
1) Vancouver’s median family income according to Statscan’s latest data in 2004 was $56, 200, almost $2000 LESS than the national median.
2) From Seattle Bubble blog:
““What we are seeing is these huge price reductions, where a guy’s asking $600,000 one week, then $550,000 the next week and $500,000 the week after that,” said Ryan Thompson, an agent with John L. Scott Real Estate.
Greg Bartell, a Re/Max Mutual Realty agent who specializes in townhouses, says he has seen particular slowing since August.
“I think the most apparent thing is prices coming down,” he said. “I’ve seen some come down $90,000 off the list” price.
Seattle townhouse prices were down from the prior year in six of the first 10 months of 2007, with October’s median townhouse price of $358,594 down 13.6 percent from October 2006, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.”
Shut Down Of Abitibi Operations In Mackenzie 10 Times Worse Than Canfor Cuts (700 layoffs)
Canadian Shoppers are slowing down
Seattle: nothin’ to do with the US at all
Seattle’s annual appreciation has declined for 19 straight months.
I think Snick has provided the quote that makes you have to recant your rant:
“Why be a chump AND a debt slave at the same time?”
I don’t include Whistler, Gulf Islands, Ladner, Bowen Island, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, Tsawwassen, and West Van. I do include Surrey and North Surrey from the FVREB.
Concerto’s suggestion is to look at Rob’s numbers a year ago is a good one. Looks to me like a pretty substantial increase in price resistance. I’ve been visiting SFH for sale on east side, and the builders are in such a hurry to sell they are showing properties that haven’t even been painted or the landscaping isn’t even close to being done.
Compare: On the old Nov. 26, 2006 blog, Rob states: “There were 11,056 active listings in my area today, of which 2,648, or 23.95%, had been on the market at least 90 days.”
Compare with Nov. 28, 2007: “Inventory reached 10,829 and over 90s were 2,853 or 26.35%.”
ok. Why the exclusion of West Van?
ok. Why the exclusion of West Van?
Probably not his demographic milleau. Rob, as I know him, is a working man’s (or woman’s) working man (his office is on E. Hastings…).
Though, I think that he’s been a bit uppity the last six months or so. Is it the price appreciation of his holdings? or the North Van. enclave that he now abodes (complete with cavorting children and ponies)? or maybe he just gets weary from the flaming. If the latter, I do commiserate. Free info. and all, y’know.
I’m sure that I meant to type milieu.
I don’t count West Van because I seldom deal with rental properties there.
Solipsist! You wound me! Uppity? Ouch! 🙂
You wound me!
No wounding intended. It was a weak attempt at defense. Uppity was italicized to convey levity. It’s hard to smirk in typing.
solipsist wants to see the spider bark.
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