Monday Numbers

Monday was a slow listing day. We saw 120 listings and 160 sales for a sell/list of 133.33%.  Inventory dropped to 10,829, while over 90s were 2,859 (26.4%)

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32 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

32 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. deb

    26.4% must be pretty high isn’t it?

  2. robchipman

    Deb:

    26.4% is climbing, that’s for sure. Not high in the grand scheme of things, but high for the market we’ve seen over the last several years.

    Snick:

    Same Snick, different day.

  3. tqn

    too many sales and fewer listings made some of us cranky tonite eh!

  4. ceejay

    strange conclusion, snick, as coco is clearly a bear. I dont think Rob goes for “that kind” 🙂

    Ok, in the search for investments, I’ve been looking at Allied Irish Banks. (AIB NY ADR). Down about 60% with a 4% dividend and denominated in Euro. The irish economy is still flying pretty high but RE has flattened into a slow decline after a Vancouver-like jump in the 02-06 period. Dublin may be a better RE proxy for Vancouver than most…the only major center in the country (Province) with a diversified economy and really crappy traffic.

  5. ceejay

    http://www.permanenttsb.ie/news/default.asp?nid=584

    Here’s the ireland link. The interesting thing is that unemploment at a record low in IE and wages are up, but prices for RE are slowly declining.

    Sorry, snick. I though you were talking about rob’s receptionist…earlier post.

  6. snick=joke

    thanks for the numbers rob. The whole spectrum implosion never happened. Looks like we might be in good shape heading into spring?

  7. AmPa

    Did Jesus have to pay mortgage?

  8. Jesse

    i do elieve there are froths (if not bubbles) in this market like this:

    http://mlslink.mlxchange.com/Pub/EmailView.asp?r=819899674&s=BRC&t=BRC

  9. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/2reuoo

    very interesting change for Citibank:

    capital restrictions on outbound money transfers:

    Outbound wires restricted to $2000 per day
    or $10,000 per month.
    receiving $100,000 inbound is OK 🙂

    want to get your money out……?

  10. Concerto

    Deb – over 90’s are at about the same percentage as this time last year.

  11. jesse

    “The whole spectrum implosion never happened.”

    GST is waived after 6 mo occupancy. At the price people paid, it’s worth it to sit vacant and wait. It would be weird to see half the building listed in 2 weeks. Places will start to be listed there but likely over months, not days or weeks. Look for places in Spectrum to start appearing mid February along with the rest of the Spring rush.

  12. Al

    “GST is waived after 6 mo occupancy”

    No 6 months. To get GST rebate, it must be 1 year of occupancy.

  13. coco

    Rob,

    I finally read a few articles on BoC interest rate predictions on the four cuts. Based on what I read it seems these cuts are to help the Canadian economy cope with a slowing U.S. economy so it is not dragged into a recession too.

    Ceejay,

    I really just post news that crosses my desk everyday on the Canadian and U.S. economies which certainly has been more bearish than bullish lately. I’m actually eyeing putting an offer on a house that has come down 100k in price (no it was not overpriced for the market, but the decor paint/wallpaper is really ugly and is effecting the sale big time)

  14. Strataman

    “The whole spectrum implosion never happened.” Actually It is happening exactly as forecast. Lots are for rent, rental prices dropping,($1300.00) vacancy, available immediately, a lot of listings as well. Those trying to save the GST will see their savings evaporate in lost rentals and will give up trying to hold out a year and list this spring.

  15. coco

    Canada dollar pinned down on global growth concern

    http://tinyurl.com/ywtwrc

  16. coco

    Subprime Crisis Not Over, More Writeoffs to Come

    http://tinyurl.com/yuzv7e

    (mentions both U.S. & Canada)

  17. coco

    Housing skid puts U.S. in a glum mood
    Fear of recession grows as consumer confidence falls to a level not seen since hurricane Katrina

    http://tinyurl.com/2baf7o

    “The risk of recession is also rising on the Canadian side of the border, according to economist Ted Carmichael of J.P. Morgan Securities Canada.”

  18. coco

    “Even though most economists are expecting the Bank of Canada to cut rates in the short term, don’t expect any meaningful drop in fixed mortgage rates any time soon. According to Aron Gampel, Scotiabank’s deputy chief economist, “If we are going to see rate relief on the mortgage side, it will come later rather than sooner, and that means probably some time in the late winter or early spring of 2008 at the earliest.”

  19. coco

    Stock market is up sharply today. U.S. banks will report more subprime losses in January 2008, this will take its toll on the market once again. We will see some wild swings in the market, be careful what you invest in, timing is everything.

  20. coco

    Sales of U.S. existing homes fell for the eighth consecutive month in October.

    http://tinyurl.com/ysgsry

  21. coco

    Durable Goods Orders in U.S. Fall More Than Forecast

    http://tinyurl.com/2shrl6

  22. coco

    Stock market is up….betting on U.S. rate cut Dec. 11.

    Lookout below if one fails to materialize.

  23. coco

    More layoffs for B.C. forestry industry as Canfor cuts 300 at four sawmills

    http://tinyurl.com/28soat

  24. coco

    “Canada’s international travel deficit climbed to its highest level – an estimated $2.5 billion – over the three-month period, up $281 million from the second quarter, as Canadian travellers spent $6.7 billion outside the country, up 4.9 per cent.
    Almost $3.9 billion of that total was spent in the U.S., a gain of 10.3 per cent over the second quarter.”

    “The higher spending was the result of increased same-day and overnight travel to the United States,” Statistics Canada said. Those overnight trips reached 4.5 million in the third quarter, their highest level in 15 years. Same-day car travel also soared to 6.1 million trips, its highest level since the terrorist attack of Sept. 11, 2001.”

  25. robchipman

    coco:

    “I finally read a few articles on BoC interest rate predictions on the four cuts. Based on what I read it seems these cuts are to help the Canadian economy cope with a slowing U.S. economy so it is not dragged into a recession too.”

    I’d agree. The interesting thing is that we have a double whammy challenge to address: a commodities economy (especially oil) that was ( and probably will continue) doing well despite the high dollar and a troubled manufcturing sector – there is also a geographic aspect to the split. The US recession just magnifies the problem. Carmichael, of course, is recognized as one of the most negative observers “on the street”, so his idea that we may see recession on this side of the line isn’t surprising (especially given the timeless wisdom about American colds and Canadian pneumonia).

    Re: mtge rates – if we’re not going to see meaningful downward moves on mortgage rates, can we say we’ve seen meaningful upward movement? I really think that’s a non-issue.

    “Stock market is up…” As Micheal Levy pointed out this morning, there has been so much negativity of late the possibility of a rally is very real. I won’t argue that a rally of that sort would be anything but speculative, and its not likely it would be loing lived (I don’t think), so I have to agree with you: we’re in for some equities volatility.

  26. coco

    Known as the Santa Claus rally. Be on the look out for scrooge though.

  27. jesse

    “To get GST rebate, it must be 1 year of occupancy.”

    You’re right. My friend will be in trouble then 😉

  28. Tony Danza

    “we have a double whammy challenge to address: a commodities economy (especially oil) that was ( and probably will continue) doing well despite the high dollar and a troubled manufcturing sector”

    The troubled manufacturing sector and a recession in the US will take care of those high commodity prices in a hurry Rob. Do you know who the largest consumer of oil in the world is? Who do you think is the largest consumer of Canadian commodities? Hint: the answers are the same. Still not sure how you all can’t see trouble for us if recession hits the US.

  29. Geezer

    Deb said:
    “26.4% must be pretty high isn’t it?”

    Inventory 10,829, that’s pretty low isn’t it?

    sell:list ratio 133.33%, that’s pretty high isn’t it?

    Just asking. 🙂

  30. robchipman

    Tony,

    The “double” in double whammy challenge refers to the high dollar and US recession, combined. I think most of us see trouble for Canada’s economy as a result of a US recession, and I certainly do, as I’ve clearly stated. (“The US recession just magnifies the problem…especially given the timeless wisdom about American colds and Canadian pneumonia”). I’m not sure how you concluded that I don’t.

  31. Tony Danza

    To Rob: The troubled manufacturing sector and a recession in the US will take care of those high commodity prices in a hurry Rob.

    To Everyone that thinks that Canada has “decoupled” from the US: Do you know who the largest consumer of oil in the world is? Who do you think is the largest consumer of Canadian commodities? Hint: the answers are the same. Still not sure how you all can’t see trouble for us if recession hits the US.

    Only one sentence in the post was meant to be directed at you Rob and it wasn’t intended as a negative, sorry for the misunderstanding. Just saying that commodity prices could suffer (and are) much sooner than many expect. Maybe I could communicate more effectively in “sign language English”.

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