There were 187 new listings Friday and 139 sales for a sell/list of 74.33%. Inventory hovered at 10,952, of which 2,656, or 24.25%, were over 90s.
Filed under Daily Numbers
RE “hysteria” is marked by 25% per annum price increases rather than just strong regular sales of SFH, discuss………….
Who is worse….gangs or RCMP?….gangs at least smarter….RCMP incompetent morons
fannie and freddie dancin’ in the street
by a permanent end of the “retail holiday frenzy” that has driven the U.S. economy since the 1940s
what!? they canceled xmas?!
the spreads on Libor rates “are likely to stay wide or widen for several months”, spelling more trouble for banks that raise their cash in the money markets.
mining for good news……. 😦
As inventory drops…here come the US links.
GREAT…..the cops have busted a few drug dealers.
Isn’t there over 10,000 grow opps in beautiful B.C.?
OK…catch a few thousand more and the price of houses will plummet.
I find it interesting to read news that always points to problems in US. What makes them think that the rest of the world is doing better. US may be the first to develop symptoms but everyone else is following too.
but everyone else is following too.
try telling that to newsflash……
Good luck getting through to Newsflash and SATV they are a little more Bullish than most…
don’t you get tired of hearing this US stuff…. blah…..blah……bla
here’s some UK stuff, great proxy for you know what…. 🙂
Just returned from NY. I watched a Suze Orman show there. Quite sad arms stories. One that caught my attention:
LA realtor been in business 10 years making 136k a year, will be lucky to make 40k this year. Single Mom, three kids. Bought an investment property and rented out. Renters were going through a divorce and didn’t pay the rent for a couple months. So she fell behind on the mortgage payments for the rental property and had to serve the tenants an eviction notice.
In the meantime the realtor took out two home equity loans on top of her own personal home mortgage for a swimming pool and other home renovations. The loan payment alone 3k per month before property taxes, utilities, etc.
Realtor’s rental went into foreclosure, she exhausted her 401k and savings to make her house payments, which are hard to do on her lower 40k income.
Suze Orman told her she was best to negotiate a deal to have her bank take over the house because given her financial situation she was going to lose the house she is living too.
While in NY, I noticed that the U.S. consumer is tightening. The after Thanksgiving sales were busy, but people carrying a lot of bags and super long lineups at the cash register were not as extreme as past years. The 75% stock was selling like hotcakes, but a lot of 50% stock was justing sitting on the shelves with more lookers than takers.
Interesting article in yesterdays New York Times.
Recession – Trying to Guess What Happens Next
Just google the headline to read the NY Times article, link requires subscription.
She had no business putting in a pool. Some people need someone to hold their hand and tell them to think twice before spending money they can’t afford to spend. But they would probably ignore the good advice. She called Orman too late. Oh well, maybe her children will learn from her mistakes.
Does anyone have any interesting anecdotes about the Fraser Valley suburbs? I’ve seen various comments, from various sources, indicating trouble in the market there. I just want a bit of colour.
Suze Orman did tell the realtor that she called the show too late. And…that she had no business owning a rental property if she could not afford to make a couple mortgage payments on the rental property in case something happened to the tenants.
I follow Fraser Valley real estate. The lower priced inventory still sells, but the higher priced inventory sees multiple price reductions and is just sitting. I think as prices rose in the Fraser Valley, people looked to Vancouver instead (less of a commute and similar prices) Perhaps, the affordability walls are kicking in the valley first? I have relatives living in Chilliwack and their market has come down over the last three months also.
Slump causes sawmill layoffs (BC)
Forestry company says hundreds of employees in region will get pink slips
An economic boom tied to the construction sector can’t go on forever; we need globally competitive export industries
BC mine construction shelved:
Would have been a $5 billion dollar project, that was originally estimated at 2. The worse things get, the more we’ll see these, ‘put on holds’.
Novagold layoffs reported to be done in an orderly fashion, so it doesn’t effect the town all at once. (not very comforting news)
Europe is in worse condition than US.
Coco, I don’t feel too sorry for that realtor. She’s working in a field where she depends on the market. A crash is always possible. Perhaps more education would allow her to find other employment. I think RE agents get way too much for what they do but that’s just me.
I DO feel sorry for the kids. That’s never a good situation.
looks like layoffs coming in the American banking and brokerage….
this is getting scary
“I think as prices rose in the Fraser Valley, people looked to Vancouver instead”
I think it works both ways. People in the FV who own a house, downsize into a Vancouver condo to cut down on their commute, whereas people who own Vancouver condos buy in the FV so they can have a house with a yard, etc.. A lot of people moved to the FV when Vancouver became unaffordable, too.
Inventory in the Fraser Valley is now at the highest level it has been at in 7 years. So, it seems more people are sticking to Vancouver proper whether downsizing or upsizing.
Citigroup layoffs rumoured to be 17,000 to 45,000 people in the future.
“LA realtor been in business 10 years making 136k a year, will be lucky to make 40k this year. ….”
Anyone who earned $1.36 million during the last decade should have a nice fat savings account.
I have no patience for people who spend every penny they earn. Her single-parent status is no excuse.
There are COUPLES who earn significantly LESS total, who prioritize lessening debt and living within their means. Those are the ones who look forward to retirement with no fear of insecurity.
We have to be able to differentiate between our ‘needs’ and our ‘wants.’
one thing that will not help RE in Vancouver….Layoffs here will really hurt.
I remember 1980/81 til 1982…..what a blowout…I remember projects suddenly shutting down and a big whole in the ground for a few years. Guy next door to me had 2 houses right at the top. Sad. See what happens.
Bulls can make money.
Bears can make money.
Pigs do not.
There are lots of stories like that…. There were millionaires on paper and then bankrupt the next day…. But apparently nothing like that will ever happen here again because Vancouver is somehow immune to any negative downturn at all… So keep buying overpriced shacks and you will be rich…. Thats super bull right there…
went to a local head shop to get some rolling papers, sign on the counter sez:
We do not accept American currency.
how times have changed!
newsflash “As inventory drops…here come the US links.” Yep your right buy a few more properties say 0 % down you the man! show us all up!
What IS with all this negativity?
Perhaps you can calm all their fears.
No panic is necessary.
“House prices in Canada continue to march upward”
The accompanying charts show that house prices in Canada, year over year, are continuing to show positive advances. Overall in the country, new home prices are up 6.5% and existing home prices, on average, are ahead 11.3%, according to the latest measures by Statistics Canada and The Canadian Real Estate Association respectively.
“I remember 1980/81 til 1982…..what a blowout…I remember projects suddenly shutting down and a big whole in the ground for a few years.”
It’s just possible that the 21% interest rates at that time may have played a small part in that particular economic turn-down.
“What IS with all this negativity?”
Missing the boat causes negativity, it’s human nature.
“Missing the boat causes negativity”
not if it is the titanic.
Then YOU be the chump…and buy that dump.
(on King Albert St. in Coquitlam)
Increasing demand for rental stock in the UK
“It’s just possible that the 21% interest rates at that time may have played a small part in that particular economic turn-down.”
Geezer I thought it had more to do with the fact that baby boomers weren’t old enough to buy their first house yet? Or maybe it was because the RE industry didn’t have the marketing/lobbying skills to keep it rolling.
“Home prices falling everywhere”
I just saw an ad for 50 year mortgages in Canada. It had a very sub-primey feel to it.
Condo developers being priced out of the market now too? Cool!
BMO profit drops 35%
From another BMO article which basically said the same as the above link, but stated this at the end:
Canadian banks could face additional writedowns, in part because the fourth-quarter results are only for the period ended Oct. 31 and capital markets have continued to deteriorate since then.
Another wave of writedowns is likely if the Canadian banks take charges in line with the 45-per-cent writedowns on similar securities taken by some U.S. banks such as Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc., said Shannon Cowherd, an analyst with Citigroup Inc.
The banks most likely to face significantly higher charges are BMO, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Royal Bank of Canada, Citigroup said.
A reduction in the availability of credit along with the higher cost of credit is likely to slow revenue and profit growth in 2008, said Michael Goldberg, an analyst with Desjardins.
Quite a smart developer I’d say. It’s so hard to see through all that “house prices are forever rising” frenzy … Who can get out pocketing gains surely is the winner.
I don’t get it – How can only 55 out 117 units have been sold pre-sale when everyone claims buildings are being sold out within hours of being offered???
More BC layoffs?
Chevron Corp has put its British Columbia natural gas storage assets on the auction block as it further streamlines its operations in Canada, a company spokesman said on Monday.
Is that drop in profit bad news or good news? What did the stock price do on receipt of the news (it went up, correct)? Isn’t it an injection of certainty into the market?
There’s no question we’re facing a liquidity challenge. But the fact that there will be write downs isn’t news anymore. We’ve known that was coming for quite a while (and it was recognized on the blog platform, I think, prior to the MSM). The amount of the write downs or decreases in profits is not necessarily bad news, and I don’t think we should simply assume that it is. We often hear that the market takes all information into account when it prices something. In this case it looks as if the market expected worse news.
If you do want to spread some bad news, look at European mortgage availability.
The Bank of Canada is leaving C$670 million in the Large Value Transfer System today.
Credit woes continue
Is there a 50 year mortgage out there? That is just silly. I hope our market returns to a realistic version…one where you can afford to buy RE and not have to mortgage for the rest of your life. So sad. I know people are still buying but I think a lot of them should not buy (BC is the province that saves the least, dedicates the highest % of household income to the mortgage etc).
52 week high 67.61 (July 20)
52 week low 55.34 (Aug 14)
Todays close 58.22
$2.88 above the all time low, wonder if it will lose all its gains later in the week? Stock market is kind of jittery now a days.
“According to BMO Capital Markets analyst Wayne Hood, much of the increase in the stock price on Tuesday can be attributed to short covering.”
I rest my case.
So when analysts publish views you disagree with, they’re pumpers or shills or industry pimps or worse. But when they say something you like, they’re “evidence” of your correctness?
Something ain’t right there, bud.
Pump & dump
Short & distort
Well known in the industry. You can’t say a one day up trend is evidence that BMO stock will continue to go up when short traders are involved either.
I read this blog all the time. I have never seen Coco call anyone a pumper, shill or industry pimp or worse as Deedub claims. She is not a Bud. Must be confusing her with someone else.
Rob’s conversation to Coco stated that BMO stock went up on its own merits, Coco stated that the stock went up on short selling, I rest my case was to due to short selling price jumps, not agreeing with the analyst as you interpret. When you work in the industry you can see that by the terms others use. Just like Rob, would be able distinguish a realtors post from someone else who doesn’t work in the industry.
“It’s just possible that the 21% interest rates at that time may have played a small part in that particular economic turn-down.”
Hey Jackass it will only take 2% to bust this bubble not the 21% that it took in 1983.
Your really close minded old fart. open your eyes and I’ll close my mouth.
Jackass and old fart are a little offside. You can always get mean…later.
You are correct. Coco and I often look at things from different viewpoints, but she doesn’t throw out the shill/pumper labels. She is pretty upfront and contributes a lot.
I believe that the market for new homes will take the first hit. Builders must move inventory so they are the weakest link. Owners will simply pull their houses off the market and wait for the conditions to improve. This appears to be happening with new home prices falling (Jurock video) and existing home inventory dropping (Rob’s numbers). What happens this spring is too difficult to predict and very dependant on the U.S. economy.
Just pisses me off, the ones that have their eyes closed claim that they are blind.
I’ll STFU again.
“Hey Jackass it will only take 2% to bust this bubble not the 21% that it took in 1983.”
The renters are getting bitter.
And when do you think we will see the 2% increase?
The US housing situation makes a rate hike of any kind extremely unlikely. Rates will drop not increase.
Sorry if that causes more bitterness.
I’m not Rob’s receptionist, nor do I work in the real estate industry.
News Flash (Geezer),
What makes you think that anyone who doesn’t agree with you is a renter? What are perma-bulls like you who continually “accuse” negative posters of being renters trying to make up for? Is it a deficit of self worth that you mask by believing that because you are a “homeowner” that you are somehow better than those who aren’t?
Maybe you could try getting a hobby or some education, or volunteer at a local charity, maybe then you won’t feel like such a non plus to society that you have to continuously prove your value to others by what you “own”.
FWIW I have never seen a single bear ridicule someone for being a “homeowner”. If you have seen this give me a link to the comment and I’ll recant my rant.
I’m not sure if Tony is implying that Newsflash and Geezer are one and the same. I can confirm that newflash consistently posts from the same IP, and Geezer consistently posts from a different IP. They both have long records of posting. They look different to me. FWIW, the same can be said of Tony (consistent IP/email address/handle).
I’m not trying to imply that they are physically the same poster, just addressing them as psychological twins.
TD:”What makes you think that anyone who doesn’t agree with you is a renter?”
I don’t. But $foma$ia has said he rents and he seems bitter by his comments IMO.
“What are perma-bulls like you who continually “accuse” negative posters of being renters trying to make up for?”
I didn’t accuse anyone of being a renter. Most have disclosed the information.
“because you are a “homeowner” that you are somehow better than those who aren’t?”
Those are your words not mine.
“Maybe you could try getting a hobby or some education, or volunteer at a local charity, maybe then you won’t feel like such a non plus to society that you have to continuously prove your value to others by what you “own”. ”
I have never said I owned anything. I just state an opinion on how to interpret the data that is presented. Over the years I have been right. Maybe you should start listening be a little less hostile.
“FWIW I have never seen a single bear ridicule someone for being a “homeowner”. If you have seen this give me a link to the comment and I’ll recant my rant.”
Look three posts above yours: “Hey Jackass”
Most of the ridicule comes from those who disagree with anyone who discusses any other possibility than a crash.
Bitterness is a state of mind BTW, not an insult. And you do seem very bitter. Just curious are you a renter by chance?
Hey Flash, for the record I am not bitter nor do I expect a crash. I’ve said it many times, that a 20% correction is about all thats going to happen.
Yes I rent because I choose to not because I have to.
When I say Jack Ass I mean it loosely, and by the way I am pretty frustrated with all the other comments posted here by people that clearly have their blinders on.
All this bear/bull or owner/renter crap really pisses me off. Were all here to look at the market numbers and discuss the market not associate ourselves as owners/renters or ah ha your a renter, or your so bitter….. cmon if your going to start talking sh!t then you can expect the jack ass comment. Especially if your some GEEZER that thinks a mortgage is as easy as ever today to payoff than it was in the 60’s. Back then mortgage paid of in 10 years today we are looking at 40. Were not talking the same porportions.
Oh I haven’t forgot about you Rob, I am in the heat of the RE boom here in Richmond. Loving all the mailanders getting off the plane to pay top dollar to sellers WOW it’s really exciting.
I’ve seen this in 92′ as well with the Hong Kongers and Taiwanese.
Tony, thanks for your comments.
NewsFlash, Just curious are you a high school dropout by chance?
“I just state an opinion on how to interpret the data that is presented. Over the years I have been right. Maybe you should start listening be a little less hostile.”
NewsFlash, I’m all ears why don’t you present your analysis of the RE market? Not where it has been but where it’s going.
FWIW I am not a renter but have many acquaintances and colleagues who are and couldn’t care less about the RE market.
“NewsFlash, I’m all ears why don’t you present your analysis of the RE market? Not where it has been but where it’s going.”
Forecast for 2008:
Construction costs higher than selling prices
Declining interest rates
Huge population growth
Low inventory for sale
Net migration higher than forecast demand
And yes the Olympics only 2 years away
Just to name a few
“FWIW I am not a renter”
Okay so your parents don’t charge you rent. Good for you.
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