Monday Goes Bang!

There were 175 new listings today and 60 sales, for a sell/list of 34.28%.  Low enough for you?

Inventory reached 10,984, of which 2,702, or 24.59%, were over 90s.

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75 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

75 responses to “Monday Goes Bang!

  1. Ahhh Sweet Perry!!

    Monday goes Bang!
    Tuesday goes POP!

  2. Unreal

    Let’s check out what people are saying in the US on the burst of housing bubble.

    (Particularly our friends at CMHC)

    http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2007/11/19/opinion/19mon1.html?s=1&pg=3

  3. Strataman

    Rob what is the history of over 90’s at this time of year? Is this 25% area average?

  4. robchipman

    Strataman:

    I can’t say what a long term average is, but its creeping up for sure. 25% and up is on the high side of what we’ve seen. Sonce I began tracking it I’ve been surprised at the narrow band that it seems to stay within.

  5. Wise Guy

    Unreal,

    Hoo kares?

    We’ll have our own BIG problems to deal with. We’re just a little late to the party, that’s all. As usual.

  6. Strataman

    Stupid question, but if I had a listing and it was going to expire what are the pro’s and con’s of extending a listing vs re-listing? Is there a cost to the seller to relist as opposed to extending or is it basically an even trade other than making the listing look new?

  7. Wise Guy

    “…but if I had a listing and it was going to expire what are the pro’s and con’s of extending a listing vs re-listing?” – Strataman

    Why?

    Worried?

    Aren’t you the one who thinks the boom will continue ad infinitum?

  8. Real estate owner

    Rob is this safe to assume that the Real estate market will follow the same trend as loonie.

  9. paulb

    North Van had no sales reported today at all. About 12 listings.

  10. Strataman

    “Aren’t you the one who thinks the boom will continue ad infinitum?” Obviously YOU have never read any of my comments! 🙂

  11. Jeff

    I found the # sales reported today unusually low… maybe a RE Board issue… not sure.
    NV 11 listings 0 sales
    WV 8 listings 0 sales
    VE 22 listings 3 sales
    VW 38 listings 7 sales

  12. Satv

    $8,000 reward for bears.
    Canada’s real estate scene is showing no sign of the weakness sweeping through the U.S. market, as sales and prices continue to rise.BEARS PLS CLOSE YOU EYES
    The country’s priciest real estate continued to be found in Vancouver, where the average resale price jumped $8,000 from September to reach $590,577 in October.
    CREA forecasts that average prices in 2008 will set new records in every province, despite a slowdown in sales activity.

  13. There was a power outage today in the Broadway and Granville area a bit before 3pm. I think the RE board is close by? not sure if this is the place where the do the data input …

    The outage only lasted a few minutes, but computers and networks can take time to reboot.

    ?

  14. satv, you are an idiot, I normally ignore you.

    this is the lowest yoy percentage increase in a long, long time … 7.8% for Vancouver, which means this is a clear sign that weakness in some form is ‘sweeping’ in.

  15. blueskies

    Windsor’s real estate market remains weak

    satv: you missed this!

  16. Satv

    yeah only if you know how does percentage work.

  17. Satv

    B,
    Luxury B luxury is a life,where can you find that?

  18. Annon

    Satv, how many years have you been on RE?

  19. Satv

    do we need to we r.e. expert,I am here to beat the sh*t out of those cheater, who first sell their unit then join network to make it bubble,then re buy r.e. and most of bears are like that here,but blueskies is very honest bear.

  20. doubter

    Half duplex in the block where I rent (1900 West 12th) sold after being on the market for about three weeks. It was listed at over $1M (where do I find how much it sold for?).

    7.8% yoy doesn’t look like a “slowdown” to me, particularly when I couldn’t have afforded to buy LAST year even if I’d won a lottery.

    It really appears that things will keep increasing until at least 2011. I just can’t see any signs of a turnaround, at least in terms of prices. All of our bear arguments have simply run out of steam. They were wrong last year, they were wrong the year before, and the year before, and the year before. I now predict they will be wrong at least in 2008 and 2009 and 2010.

    Dang.

  21. Annon

    I thought that was just a simple question for Satv.

  22. Anonymous

    satv doesn’t understand english. don’t even bother trying to converse with he/she/it.

  23. coco

    Canadian wholesale trade rebounds in September

    http://tinyurl.com/2v6l8y

    British Columbia posted the biggest drop in sales, down -3.1 per cent for the second month in a row to $4.3 billion thanks to the fall in lumber sales.

  24. coco

    U.S. Mortgage Woes Could Spread to Car Loans

    http://tinyurl.com/ywpb3t

    Credit cards, payday loan companies, car loans….wonder what is next.

  25. coco

    Abbotsford condos sell out in two hours

    http://tinyurl.com/yu8bul

    Prices for units in the Latitude project started in the low $200,000s

  26. coco

    U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis already squeezing Canadians, economist says

    http://tinyurl.com/2hab8l

  27. coco

    When will bubble burst?
    Condo sales are booming for good reason — but also for bad (Canada)

    http://tinyurl.com/2gqfjn

  28. coco

    Inflation rate eases to 2.4%
    (last month 2.5%)

    http://tinyurl.com/34ppdv

    (slight easing, but maybe not quite enough to cut interest rates yet, have to see what retail sales come in at)

  29. Anonymous

    “consumer prices fell 0.3 per cent from September to October as prices at the gasoline pumps dropped by 3.3 per cent”

    Gasoline is staying at a reasonable price due to the higher Canadian dollar, if the dollar falls further expect gasoline prices to rise and fuel inflation.

  30. coco

    Credit Card Firms Seen Preparing For Spreading Credit Crunch

    http://tinyurl.com/3b6qov

  31. coco

    “If you collect Air Miles, also beware of this: BMO says this $185-million subprime charge will “increase the liability for future customers redemptions” in the Air Miles program of its Canadian MasterCard business.”

    Consumer pays again….crunch, crunch….

  32. doubter

    Jeff,

    Yes, 1966 West 12th.

  33. ObserverX

    coco, how did you manage to miss this one today! 🙂

    http://tinyurl.com/2f8kk4

  34. ObserverX

    (Just to clarify, above link is about Freddie Mac’s quarterly loss and resultant ~25% haircut on share price.)

  35. Jeff

    doubter:
    I was going to tell you that it was still active, but it got reported sold this morning, lucky for you…
    list: $1,079,000
    sold: $xxxxxxxx
    DOM: XX
    sold in 1988: $242,500
    sold in 1994: $450,000
    Built in 1988

  36. Dignan

    Rob, can you remind of the rules when it comes to dropping your asking price the day before/after you sell it for less than your original price? I know a House in West Van that was listed at $5,800,000 that sold for $5,450,000 and the listing price was changed to 5,450,000 after the sale was made.

  37. Johnny33

    I still think we have a long way to go… look at the sell/list in Edmonton, where sales/listings and inventory has been a LOT higher for the past few months and prices are still fairly sticky on the way down.

  38. Jeff

    Yesterday we talked about Canadian bank stocks being at 52 week lows… but, they may not be all that cheap yet… their valuations are much higher than US bank stocks.
    Just like RE… perhaps the better opportunities are in the US?

  39. boobs

    our house in surrey pur. in ’94 for 260 000 now worth apr. 560 000 / condo DT pur. for 115 000 in ’91 now apr. 300 000. as u can see doubter buing anywhere was a good decision so if u can do it outside of the mil. plus zone don’t think tooooooooo long-ah also i don’t remember when was the last time that we were ask for change, or someone went thru our garbage, broke into our car or did anythink that is a norm in that genetic garbage lab that van. has become

  40. Al

    “list: $1,079,000
    sold: $xxxxxxxx
    DOM: XX
    sold in 1988: $242,500
    sold in 1994: $450,000
    Built in 1988”

    If 20-year duplexes are getting sold for over a million, it is prematurely to talk about crush.
    There will be no crush before Olympics.
    We have 2 more years of appreciation.

  41. Brian

    If interest rates go down, property values will go up again, since people can afford a bigger mortgage.

    It is funny how people react to real estate. All they see is the monthly payments. They do not look at the price.

  42. coco

    ObserverX,

    Went to catch up on Freddie Mac, but you got me covered. Thanks.

    Over 2,000 articles on subprime alone cross my desk daily, daunting and speed reading is an understatement.

  43. coco

    More subprime fallout…..
    Commercial real estate could be next

    http://tinyurl.com/259ln9

  44. doubter

    Jeff, thanks for the numbers. The SOLD stickers were up when I walked by about 10:45 last night. There seemed to be quite a bit of interest in this property; open houses were busy.

  45. paulb

    Mortgage rates do not always drop becausse the bank rate drops. The credit crunch will keep mortgage rates moving up imo.

  46. Jeff

    I am observing the affordability issue in condo sales:
    My observation is that smaller condos are selling at unusually high price per sqft lately; while condos with more livable sqft size is not moving up in price at all. In fact, the product between $500-700k looks to be falling in price. Product below $500k is moving up at a scary speculative rate. Product over $700k looks to be moving flat to down.
    These are just my personal observations (Note: my area is Vancouver West).

  47. coco

    Brian,

    Mortgage rates are based on bonds, not BoC setting rates. BoC would provide more liquidity to the banks by lowering interest rates, but that doesn’t mean that would automatically transfer to lower mortgage rates. Banks can set whatever mortgage rates they want (just like your credit card interest rate, but not that extreme)

    Given that even Canadian banks have more subprime writedowns in the next few quarters coming up, it is hard to judge what they will charge for mortgage rates should their subprime losses continue to rise.

  48. coco

    Jeff,

    Quite awhile ago, I mentioned that as the lower end prices keep rising and the upper end prices stall or decline if the two will collide.

    I noticed an example of this in my neighbourhood of this today. A smaller older house 1878 sq. ft. collided with a newer 3000 sq. ft. house whose price was reduced twice. They are both the same price now.

  49. Al

    Feff,

    I also watch Downtown condos.
    I beleive, best condo size for investment is around 500-550 sq.ft.
    Wich Downtown buildings, in your opinion, look most attractive for investor?
    (I personally like Hudson, Spectrum and Yaletown Park)

  50. vomitingdog

    I too have observed a slow down (anecdotal, of course) on the upper end of the West side. 1M+. I did go inside 1966 W 12th and thought it was a ridiculous price for the condition it was in but it had much more square footage than most other properties in that neighbourhood/price.

    As for the East side, where I live, everything decent gets snapped up in a day. Whereas the crappier stuff sits for a long while. This is exactly what happened last fall until February hit and the market took off again… only there was no continuous talk of $100+ oil, sub-prime meltdown & inflation.

  51. Unreal

    Questions for mortgage insurance.

    If I am unable to make the monthly payments on a mortgage, and get in a foreclosure situation.

    In what manner my mortgage insurance company step in?

    Anyone can give me an answer? Who does the mortgage insurance protect? The bank or the home owmer?

    Thanks

  52. vomitingdog

    With much talk of a house price crash becoming evident in the UK, check this out and be dismayed at how it’s not materializing:

    http://tinyurl.com/ywxtqd

  53. vomitingdog

    Also, what does that mean when something sells for $1,079,000 and sells for $1,044,021? Are they haggling over the leftover dishwasher soap? WTF?!!

  54. robchipman

    Strataman:

    I don’t think there is an advantage to re-listing. I simply extend (or de-hire the seller). I think pricing is a much more effective tool, frankly. Listing history is very easy to obtain, so its unlikely that you’ll fool anyone (and I’m not much on trickery as a sales tool anyway). Not everyone feels that way, and some people (both Realtors and sellers) want to re-list to re-set DOMs. If there is an additional cost either way, its not something I consider (its costs money to do business).

    Doubter:

    You probably can’t find the actual sales price until it closes, which could be another 2 weeks to a month. Even then Realtors are not supposed to disclose the information (unless to a client) until a public authority has publicised it, which I take to mean BCAA updating its system (and that could be months). As you know, many Realtors ignore this rule. (Jeff, no offense, but I’ve deleted the info you posted based on a) my differing opinion on sharing the info and b) your use of me to publicise it! 🙂 Feel free to call or email me to discuss this – I’m sure that the privacy part is of interest to readers and even if we aren’t on the same page I think it would be great for us to be able to share, from two perspectives, the Board’s/Kim Spencer’s position).

    Dignan:

    I don’t think there is any specific rule forbidding changing the price after you’ve received a offer. In other words, the listing agent just does the paperwork and sends it in. It could well reach the MLS before the sales report. Any beef would be based not on the paperwork itself, but some other breach of ethics. I’m sure one exists if you can demonstrate some sort of malice or hidden agenda. The problem is that many people could, quite honestly, drop price prior to getting the offer, in order to generate an offer. It would look very similar, especially if you are looking at MLS.ca for list price, but getting sale info from MLXchange (in short, you’d have to be careful checking the various dates). When we last spoke of this some people at the Board didn’t like the sound of the Toronto example, but didn’t think it was happening here a lot (and we just referred to the TO story at the time, I think). Forward or publicise any details if you like.

  55. robchipman

    unreal:

    They step in like any foreclosure. If they can’t sell it within a certain time they hand the listing to the insurer and collect their money. Insured or uninsured makes no real dif to the borrower from that perspective.

  56. Jeff

    Rob,
    my apologies. agreed, we are not supposed to share the information until the title changes hands.

  57. Brian

    Coco,

    Bond yields are dropping.

    For example the 5-year benchmark bond has dropped to a low of 3.84% as of today. Its peak was 4.75% at 12 Aug 07.

    At that time, a 5-yr mortgage was 6%. It is still the same.

    The change in bond yields is about 0.90% since their peak. This implies under regular conditions a 5-yr mortgage should be 5.10% today.

    Surprisingly, the 5-yr mortgage has not changed since then, since banks have become more aggressive. If low bond yields lasts longer, banks are forced to reduce their rates.

  58. Dignan

    Rob, the property was built by a West Van developer who “Does not sell for under list price” He mentioned that he had to take under list on this propert which was a newly built home 7000 sqft. I looked on the listing realtors website yesterday and noticed that the asking price had dropped to the sale price to show that he did not sell under list. It seems a bit shifty to me.

  59. robchipman

    Jeff:

    No harm done. Can you do me a favour? I’ve gotten some flak over my read on privacy and the Board’s guidelines. Can you confirm, through your office or the Board, that we are not supposed to publicise/advertise sales prices until after a government authority has publicised them? This is different from when the title changes hands, and is an issue because a lot of people feel that once title changes hands the information is public. This in turn, contributes to the perception that we are restricting access to information to control the market. I think you and I can both agree that we’d be more than comfortable sharing all kinds of info with potential customers, and don’t rely in information control for business, but I’d like to hear someone other than me say that! 🙂

  60. robchipman

    Dignan:

    I’m not surprised that you think its shifty! The set up is win-lose. The developer says “I don’t sell under list price”; meanwhile, I say “Buy with me and I’ll get you a fantastic deal, and I’ll get you at least 10% off list” (ignore, for the moment, my feeling about basing performance benchmarks on list price). Its hard for me to use data (the collection and maintenance of which I pay for) to advance my business claims. Meanwhile, the developer, by strong-arming my fellow member, takes advantage of the data to support a questionable claim.

    I’m sure there are other beefs as well.

  61. robchipman

    Brian/coco:

    I just got a new rate sheet. 5 year offered at 5.85%.

  62. Unreal

    Hi Rob,
    On mortgage insurance again.

    So, in a foreclosure situation, the bank wouldn’t get burn because the Mortgage insurance company would cover any losses.

    US Banks are in the hurt from subprimes mortgage, how come we haven’t hear any demage done to the insurer?

    ths

  63. robchipman

    Unreal:

    The main damage is not due to the foreclosures (which are on a minority of the loans), but to the re-selling and securitization of all the loans, which magnifies exposure (or so it seems to me). I’d surmise that the insurers, if they’re suffering, have a much lower total loss than the ABCP guys. Also, (although I haven’t looked), its possible that the insurers evaluated risk properly and charged properly – after all, risk evaluation is core business for them.

  64. Jeff

    Rob,
    My office has instructed us that we can publish sale prices once the title changes hands (after registration in LTO) as it is then considered public information.

  65. hard facts

    “Satv
    November 19, 2007 at 10:38 pm
    $8,000 reward for bears.”

    satv give a lint to hard facts about the real estate market and gets crapped on by the bears.

    what’s up

    a trend is a trend till it changes… and it has not changed yet.

    now all i need is the reply… “i live in south van and in my neighborhood i have seen lots of for sales signs… i guess the party is over”

  66. Geezer

    Hot tip, the elevator operator in my office building said he’s going short on Vancouver RE. You heard it here first.

  67. Dignan

    “Hot tip, the elevator operator in my office building said he’s going short on Vancouver RE. You heard it here first.”

    Mine just lined up to buy 3 units pre sale at the Sky towers……

  68. coco

    Unlike banks here is a reinsurer that has now taken a subprime writedown.

    Swiss Re loses $1.1 billion in subprime credit market

    http://tinyurl.com/2j4633

  69. coco

    “I just got a new rate sheet. 5 year offered at 5.85%.”

    Rob,

    Who is offering this rate? I checked canadamortgage.com and various bank links and there is no change in rates. But…this of course could be a monkey see, monkey do situation that has not taken effect.

  70. coco

    Oil flirts with $100.00 again. It has been creeping back up since it fell.

  71. Anonymous

    “Surprisingly, the 5-yr mortgage has not changed since then, since banks have become more aggressive. If low bond yields lasts longer, banks are forced to reduce their rate”

    I don’t think the banks are “forced” to reduce their rates, it is a matter of being competitive. One bank decides to lower there rates and the others follow.

  72. coco

    Subprime mortgage crisis far from over, “survivors’ conference” hears

    http://tinyurl.com/2nr2kr

  73. Satv

    Hard Fact,
    You might have scene this Inventory hanging on close to 12k but prices are going up.Even inventory going down by surprise,May be those house on sale in your neighbourhood will never sell,because of location,age,look,and pricewise,those have nothing to do with crash.

    I mean few or single facts have no power to disturb the party,even if inventory reach up to 24k its depend on their listing price,and price they get if sold out,There is no effects of their presence in the market .

  74. robchipman

    coco:

    That rate came from Spencer Close 922-0424. He’s one of the guys who regularly gives me rates and he’s arranged lots of good mortgages for people over the years. I’ve quoted his rates before.

    I have a slightly older sheet from James Cosco, 291-1011, with 5 yrs at 5.94%. He’s like Spencer – good, experienced, great to work with. I’ve quoted his rates in the past before as well.

    I’m not certain that the internet is the best source of prices. After all, depending on how you look at it, its really no different than the poster in the bank’s window. The market exists in real time between live people.

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