Tuesday’s #s (posted by Chan)

We had 202 new listings Tuesday and 145 sales for a sell/list of 71.82%.  Of the sales 19, or 9.4%, went over list.  8 of those were in Van West, 3 in East Van, 4 in Richmond, 1 in Port Coquitlam, 1 in Coquitlam, 1 in Surrey and 1 in Burnaby.  Average list price was $559,055, while average sale price was $13,874 less, at $545,181 (-2.18%).  Average DOM was 38.  The biggest underlist sale was 28% off list (-$7900) or 23% (-$29900), while the largest overlist was 8.89% ($15,000) or 4.6% ($52,000).

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25 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

25 responses to “Tuesday’s #s (posted by Chan)

  1. deb

    thank you for such complete numbers.

  2. Annon

    coco,

    I can not understand why the Canadian gov’t would say our economy is strong when they had to inject billions of dollars to facilitate liquidity. That’s just lies. A strong economy should not be dependent on gov printing money to provide liquidity. Let those risk takers face the consequences they deserve. What they are doing is punishing financially responsible and careful individuals.

  3. Northern Ally

    This is good for a laugh: Wall St. Journal article about desparate sellers burying St. Joseph statues in their lawn–he’s the patron saint of home sales!

    http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB119370066239175607.html

  4. Northern Ally

    Thought this was interesting, too: article posits that home ownership rates could also revert to the mean. In the U.S., it topped out at 69.2% in 2004, currently 68.2%, while the pre-credit bubble mean should be below 65%, suggesting another 3.5 million households will slide from owner column to renter column.

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/14698/from/yahoo

    Latest Stat Can reports Canadian home ownership rate at 68.4%, highest since they started keeping track in 1961. Anyone know what the rates are historically in Vancouver specifically, and if it is currently lower than national average, or higher?

  5. coco

    Annon,

    Without liquidity you would have panic/chaos. Credit depends on trust. Trust between banks, trust between banks and corporations, trust between banks and consumers, etc.

    If trust disappears, then credit tightens or disappears altogether. Right now you have a lack of lending confidence between banks which is putting upward pressure on the interest rates that they lend to each other. Lack of lending confidence can end up spilling into other areas, such as mortgages, personal loans, etc.

    The central banks are trying to restore trust, but have to be careful not to make credit cheap enough so that investors and lenders become careless about risk again.

  6. coco

    Lack of liquidity is believed to be one of a few factors that caused the great depression.

  7. coco

    “A strong economy should not be dependent on gov printing money to provide liquidity.”

    This is very true, but we are in jittery “credit crunch” times due to subprime investments and commercial paper woes. Low interest rates made lenders, corporations and people take more risks they would normally would of not, if credit didn’t become so cheap.

  8. coco

    “9.4%, went over list”

    This number continues to fall.

    “while average sale price was $13,874 less, at $545,181 (-2.18%). ”

    Looks this percentage is rising, although you have not posted it for quite awhile.

  9. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/27k9gj

    A house deal to die for?

    🙂

  10. Alum

    Interesting article

    http://tinyurl.com/29xwp5

    How does Fed ‘inject’ money into the system?
    Also: Who decides which exchange handles my stock transactions?
    COMMENTARY
    By John W. Schoen
    Senior Producer
    updated 1:38 p.m. MT, Sun., Aug. 12, 2007

    On Friday, the Federal Reserve — and other central banks around the world — pumped money into the global credit markets to head off a developing panic. The move was supposed to calm down the markets and ease fears that the mortgage mess will get worse before it gets better.

  11. Annon

    The stock market surely indicates there is more than plenty of cash in the market. Who’s buying all the stocks while banks, as BoC seems to imply by injecting money, are scrambling for cash. Can the investors in the market be so divided? If the injected money in turn ends in stock market, then BoC couldn’t be lamer.

  12. Grin and Bear It

    Does anyone know the latest plans regarding what to do with the homeless/drug addicts on the downtown east side of Vancouver? I cannot believe the fat cats will leave things in this condition come 2010. I love how are social problems get all the attention in the world because they don’t want the Olympic city to reveal it’s ‘black eye’.

    Rob, strike up the band…kumbayah one more time! 🙂

  13. robchipman

    Coco:

    A year ago today:

    “There were 207 new listings today and 113 sales, for a sell/list of 54.59%. Of the sales 6, or 5.31% went over list.”

    A year ago tomorrow:

    “There were 223 new listings today, and 142 sales, for a sell/list of 63.68%. Of the sales 14, or 9.86%, went over list.”

    A year ago yesterday:

    “204 new listings and 158 sales, for a sell/list of 77.45%. Of the sales 6, or 3.8%, went over list price. ”

    So, were yesterday’s numbers a new trend, or seasonality? Hard to tell. Still, it seems as if we’ve been up so long that everything looks like down. I spoke to a guy today who figured a correction here would be 3%-4% appreciation instead of 12%.

    G&B:

    Kumbayah is for people who pretend to believe the world functions the way we wish it did rather than the way it is. Whiskey and cigarettes, on the other hand, cost money.

    It seems perfectly clear to me that when the DTES gentrifies, despite the best efforts of any opponents, the marginalized people will have a tarp thrown over them or be pushed somewhere else. We’ve already seen some of that happen.

    I’m not saying its right. I’m just saying I’d bet on it. Especially if you leave it to the “fat cats”. I’m not sure who they are, but they never seem to fix the problem.

    On the other hand, if you want to make a small, but tangible, contribution, Aaron Best will be cranking up his annual clothing drive among his clients for the benefit of Union Gospel Mission. Feel free to give him a hand.

  14. Skeptic

    Did anyone else see the piece in the Vancouver Sun (http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/features/businessbc/indextest.html) that lists the top 100 companies in BC ? The commentary with the article mentioned that its all mining forestry has dropped out of the picture.

  15. coco

    Annon,

    One should consider a lot of people and corporations pulled funds out of money markets when non-bank commercial paper froze and moved their cash to safer investments and/or the stock market. Most money market funds have commercial paper in them. When corporations and people withdraw funds, banks have to find new investors for the money market or cover the withdrawal amounts themselves. The problem is banks are not finding enough new investors and end up covering these amounts themselves. Commercial paper loans “rollover” and it is assumed the investors will still be there, but that has not been the case since August because the markets are so jittery about any subprime loan exposure that maybe hidden in commercial paper.

    BoC cash injections are covering a lot of commercial paper.

  16. coco

    The Montreal Accord and U.S. superfund basically plan to repackage commercial paper noone wants to buy and sell it to new investors. This is a creative way to get the commercial paper off their books. Whether this idea flies or not remains to be seen.

    (Some economists believe banks are just delaying the process of an economic slowdown or recession by trying to creating these new commercial paper funds and if these funds fail that the credit crunch will worsen)

  17. Annon

    coco,

    Thanks for the fine analysis. Taking it a little further, if BoC can provide roll-over cover once, I can’t see why they won’t do it again and again until they can no longer do it. And that can be years and years to no end.

  18. coco

    Annon,

    Your welcome.

    BoC can print as much money as it wants, it will never run out. The big question is as you keep stretching the elastic and injecting more and more cash into the banking sector; does the elastic hold or break? Does consumer confidence and investment return? Can the BoC and other central banks bring confidence back to the market? Or…has it become too little too late with the subprime debacale?

    It should not take years and years to unravel, sometimes next year or maybe as soon as late December you will have a clearer picture on which direction it’s going.

  19. coco

    Ceejay,

    If your out there….Nasa going to be releasing a report on Aviation safety. Nasa didn’t want to release this report as the number of incidents at U.S. airports may effect the airlines. They say people might be scared off from flying if they are aware of the sheer number of near misses, etc.

    Not sure what effect this report will have airline stocks, but at least you have been warned in advance.

  20. blueskies

    Sixty per cent of new and rollover terms for insured mortgages are now longer than 25 years, and half of those are 40 year amortization periods,

    http://tinyurl.com/yo2r2h

    scary sh!t indeed

  21. Spectralshift

    I will agree, sort of, however I see no value to the statement – as much is said in the 2nd page as “Maybe there is no right or wrong answer”.

    Given that at any point in time, one could sell their home and move to/rent at a different location, it seems to me that your home should be considered part of your portfolio. The name you give it does not matter – the impact on risk is still present.

    As he says, the reason why it is important to include your home is because of portfolio correlation – it’s the same reason why you don’t buy stock in the company your work for (outside of any incentive plan). Your salary includes a significant “investment” in the company. Should anything happen to the company, you are likely to lose both your job and your investments.

    The same goes for your home. Granted, many will want to stay put for 5-10-50 years… however that’s like saying you want to stay invested in the market for 10-50 years, so you shouldn’t worry about what you are invested in and don’t need to be diversified. The reality is that you may want to move, you may want to step up, or down… You may want to sell to start a business, or put your kids through college. You may lose your job, may get transferred… Maybe real estate will return to the mean for a very long time, maybe rents will drop, etc. Maybe interest rates will rise and stay high for the next 20 years.

    If you are heavily invested in one area (relatively speaking -ie: small geographical real estate area is worse than a broad REIT), you are at risk. If you do go through an extended downtime and want to move, say from a cold climate to a warm climate, with a decreased home value and investment value, you may face a situation where you are indeed short of cash.

    A real life example that prompted me to post – someone at work was asked to move to Vancouver from the States and is in the situation where his home and 2nd property both have dropped notably while Vancouver had risen. Had his investments been properly diversified, he would not have had the same impact on his situation. He’s hurting and I suspect will not end up making the move, limiting his career options/job/etc. Between currency, real estate and such, he’s down a significant (I’d estimate ~60% from 3 years ago – but being leveraged, he could be approaching 100% loss – I’m just speculating) amount in net worth… Investing here in Vancouver would force him to spend the majority of his money just to settle in – again, somewhere where values may not be stable.

    This is not to say that real estate investing is good or bad – I agree that each buying situation is different. However, if you do not include your home in your risk calculations/diversification, you literally choosing (on average) to ignore over 50% of your net worth. It may only come up in the tail ends of situations, but it may not be as rare as we think. Of course, I can’t say one way or another if REITs help reduce risk or raise return…

    My last thought is that real estate is fundamentally different than most investments and probably needs special weighting rules. What I dream of is someone actually running the analysis and saying what those rules should be… Instead I keep reading articles that end up with “maybe… maybe not”. There is no technical evaluation at all. Just finding standard deviation values for ETF/Markets proves to be just about impossible, yet this should be a fundamental part of building a portfolio. I have to wonder if advisors are genuinely interested in answering these kinds of questions. That’s another rant, however…

    (Rob, one question – In theory, if I wanted, say, a history of 1 bedroom apartments prices/location, is it possible to get from MLS? More importantly, how far back?)

  22. Spectralshift

    Grah, Seems I posted in the wrong thread…

    Above comment meant to be on the “Home is not an investment” ( https://rireb.wordpress.com/2007/10/31/your-home-is-not-investment/ )

  23. Grin and Bear It

    Rob, cigarettes and whisky cost but only if you use them. I don’t understand smokers…no benefit to it and they create nasty health problems.

    Kumbayah is for people that would like to make some change and make a difference instead of just go along for the ride. I do help out the DTES and often work right in the area to assist the locals. I have a law degree but passed up on practicing so I could do things that I find more satisfying. I like to know I made a difference and helped someone. So, Rob, thanks for sharing your thoughts on the whole ‘kumbayah’ thing but I have to disagree (to a small degree).

    Rob, will you be lending a hand in the clothing drive etc? 🙂

  24. robchipman

    G&B:

    You’re wrong about Kumbayah as well as the cigarettes. Want to understand a smoker? Light up, buddy! (I haven’t smoked for almost 30 years and I can still feel the nicotine rush in my fingertips when I think about a smoke at coffee break!)

    My point about Kumbayah is simple: most of us want to make the world a better place. The question is: are you doing anything? (And I saw your answer to that question).

    Realists look at the problem and do something tangible. Kumbayah singers (imho) sing about a better world and point fingers at the realists in order to feel better about themselves. Sort of like the guy who concludes he’s a friend of the poor because he wants higher corporate taxes so that the government can spend more on welfare so that more people can try to survive on a starvation income. So…you’re not a Kumbayah singer! 🙂

    Will I be lending a hand in the clothing drive? Sure, why not, always do. Let’s have a contest and see who’s got the bigger hearts, bears or bulls. No winners or losers there, really – everyone wins and its a good cause. I’ll announce the details as we get closer to the date.

  25. Grin and Bear It

    Rob, sounds like a plan (clothing drive).

    Trust me, I know more about addiction than you think. I work with the addicted on a daily basis. It’s great when you can turn a life around in a positive way. If I went on with my legal career I could have earned, probably, up to 4 X more than I do now. I could have worked most of my working day and had no true satisfaction. I prefer what I’m doing.

    When I made the comment about smokers I was pretty bang on. You skewed my words or misread. Smoking is more addictive than most drugs so I do get it. What I don’t get is why people start. Other ‘vices’ offer something (be it positive or negative – usaully negative). Drugs, drinking etc alter you..offer you the drunk, the high, the buzz etc. What does smoking offer? Nothing. It’s the addiction that brings ’em back for more! Ah well.

    Rob, I understand Kumbayah and I think you noted something similar to what I said. Anyway, that’s before my time so party on 🙂

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