Today’s Numbers

There are 281 new listings and 137 sales, for sell/list 2.05%

Inventory is 11,827, while over 90s reached 2,692, or 4.39%.

Advertisements

64 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

64 responses to “Today’s Numbers

  1. Priced Out

    Nicely bearish.

    The numbers are much appreciated.

  2. Johnny33

    FYI… sell/list = sales/listings not the other way around. Sell/list is at 48.75%, Over 90’s at 22.76%.

  3. Anonymous

    These numbers are not accurate as they keep updating until 5pm.

  4. exx

    Maybe these are from Monday?

    Also, http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/10/16/homesales.html.

    “Vancouver’s real estate market once again topped the country’s most expensive. The average home sold for $582,354. That’s down by about $5,000 from August, but still represents a better than 10 per cent hike in the past year.”

  5. Chazz Micheal Micheals

    The cracks are forming…

    Bob Rennie and the tout’s are going to be in for a nasty shock. Any student of the history of the markets knows that all asset classes move in cycles and this one has topped out. It took 10 years for the Japanese bubble to inflate and 20 years for it to deflate. The writing has been on the wall for the past 8 months giving ample time for people to get out.

    Look out below Vancouver!

  6. blueskies

    bubbling over with joy

    http://tinyurl.com/27mre9

    NOT!

  7. coco

    BoC leaves 500 million in settlement system today and another 500 million for tomorrow.

    http://tinyurl.com/ytj98f

    (large cash injections continue)

  8. coco

    If you withdraw a good chunk out of your money market fund that has commercial paper in it the bank will ask you why your withdrawing.(instructions from head office)

    Ask a bank what the commercial paper loans are for in your money market fund and you will get the bank guarantees such and such amount per share it will not go below that, but no answer as to what the commercial paper loan for that particular company is for. (they don’t know)

    Banks claim they will have to be more transparent in the future as a lot of people are asking what they are investing in now.

  9. M-

    coco, I took my money out of RBC’s Premium Money Market fund a month ago– the financial planner asked why I was taking it out– “it’s very safe”. My response: “but it’s not guaranteed”. She smiled, and said she understood.

    If half the money is “asset-backed”, what does it mean? The bank’s financial planner doesn’t know where the money is. What kinds of assets are backing it? How is the value of those assets determined? “trust us”. I have a limited amount of trust in a bank whose sole reason for existence is to cash in on me…

  10. -A-

    “Looks like the next move for interest rates will be down:”

    That’s right Skeptic, that is just how bad things may get.

    Low low prices, low low interest rates, for a long long time.

  11. blueskies

    all righty now all you lowlife renters…listen up

    http://tinyurl.com/2a4d69

    rentisgood!

  12. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/2dsgpt

    U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.

    ….and we are a year or more behind the US market…. 2012 or thereabouts.

  13. fish10

    Here’s a nice price drop

    http://fishre.blogspot.com/

    Assuming it sells for $100k less than current list price that would be $400k below the initial list price!

    Or a 20+% drop.

    There are just silly prices out there.

  14. -A-

    http://www.canadabankruptcy.ca/

    Bookmark this many of the bulls on this blog will need it.

  15. Jeff

    M,

    I also sold out of RBC’s Premium Money Market fund about 2-months ago. I now hold RBC T-Bill Fund… how risky do you think that fund is?

  16. Skeptic

    -A-: “low low interest rates, for a long long time.”

    Sounds good….

  17. abc

    > RBC T-Bill Fund…how risky do you think that fund is

    Why not go and look up in its annual or quarterly report what its major holdings are/were? That’s where I would start.

  18. -A-

    “low low interest rates, for a long long time.”
    Sounds good….”

    Typical response from you, and as usual you missed half of the information.

    It’s actually amazing how you guys get by in life, but sooner or later, luck will run out.

    You fools have been right for a long time for the wrong reasons.

    You will be broke again.

  19. mk-kids

    “BoC leaves 500 million in settlement system today and another 500 million for tomorrow.”

    Coco (or anyone), what does this mean exactly? I see from the article that this is a big change from the usual (25 mill to 150mill/ 1 bill left overnight) – but why are they doing this? what does it all mean?!!!

  20. Annon

    Did anyone see this before? Still don’t quite know how to interpret this tool. Seems as though if one is to expand the years staying in the purchased house to 20+ years, it’s almost always cheaper to buy one in the end.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html

  21. Annon

    “mortgage financiers” are losers. Why would anyone think their words can be credible? after all, they live on charging fees on mortgage applications …. much like all commission based sales force. Ok, to be fair, I am sure there are good “mortgage financiers” but they for sure seem like a group smaller than minority.

  22. I know that the numbers are free and all, and I appreciate Chipman’s efforts to make them available, but whoever is posting these percentages REALLY needs to go take a remedial math course, or maybe just read the comments. Geez.

    For anyone else who is mathematically challenged:

    There are 281 new listings and 137 sales, for sell/list of (137/281)*100 = 48.75%

    Inventory is 11,827, while over 90s reached 2,692, or (2692/11827)*100 = 22.76%

    No, I am not being mean; I just hope that the poster will read the comments before they try to collect their next % based commissions 😉

  23. -A-

    MK : The BOC is trying to keep easy credit from seizing up, and it can do so in many ways.

    One of the quickest ways is by literally interfering with money markets, by artificially making more money available to the chartered banks, the banks therefore can reduce its reserves, and make more cash available and more to borrowers.

    This often results in a lot of sub-prime lending, but we don’t call it that in Canada.

  24. Annon

    mk-kids, the system BoC is referring to is where banks transfer/exchange funds through wire. Usually when a transfer is made through wire between banks, it needs to be settled, meaning closed – meaning if Bank A says “hey, here’s the wire transfer of $1mil to this account …”, Bank A later presents real $1mil to close off this wire transfer.

    Taken from the official BoC website – “The Bank of Canada is legally responsible for overseeing the safety of the LVTS. The Bank holds collateral from other LVTS members, which it would use to settle the LVTS in the unlikely event that one of the institutions could not meet its obligations. This ensure’s that Canada’s financial system is not put at risk.”

    http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/backgrounders/bg-p8.html

  25. News Flash

    “low low interest rates, for a long long time.”

    Yup with the strong Canadian dollar keeping inflation low it looks like no hikes anytime soon.

    FYI – There has never been a significant decline in housing prices in BC without interest rate hikes.

  26. Annon

    So with BoC (and too many other central banks) putting money in the pool, we know they are really expecting some wire transfers to be deficient in margin or collateral requirements. And the bigger the buffer fund, the bigger the problem a central bank forsees. So far, ECB is the biggest, US second …. I don’t know who’s 3rd or onwards.

  27. mk-kids

    Thanks A & Annon for your replies. I am still not clear though… why has the amount the BoC is leaving in the LVTS changed so dramatically since the credit crunch in August? Why would easy money markets seize up if the BoC didn’t do this?

  28. -A-

    Newsflash, that is what your fellow realtors were saying in the States.

    They still have the low low interest rates, the low low unemployment, but the bubble has burst.

    BC’s will be much worse, our economy is not diversified enough.

  29. -A-

    MK banks have to keep a reserve, the greater the withdrawals the more their reserve is drawn down, and the fewer loans they can make.
    In a sense, the BOC is acting as a lender of last resort to the chartered banks, by making money easily available to them to lend to each other for brief periods.

  30. abc

    Annon, the tool you found always comes up for me better to rent. In the advanced settings you should put in a rate of return corresponding to equities, say 8%, not a rate of return corresponding to GICs.

  31. News Flash

    A:
    “Newsflash, that is what your fellow realtors were saying in the States.”

    The US realtors were saying “There has never been a significant decline in housing prices in BC without interest rate hikes”?

    Why would they be talking about BC? And, by the way, they were right if in fact they did say that.

    The US on the other hand has had significant interest rate hikes. The teaser rates resetting is an interest rate hike. If you have a 3% rate and it resets after 3 years to 7% that is a significant interest rate hike. No such thing exists in Canada.

  32. Skeptic

    -A- – good to see you caught my humour !

    Instead of calling me a fool, you should be looking out for yourself. Since you seem to have all of this figured out, hopefully you are positioning yourself to take advantage of the ‘pending doom’.

    If you truly are making so much money on your GIC’s, etc, why do you and the other bears on here have such axes to grind ?

    Different strokes for different folks. Some people rent, some buy. There’s no need to make personal attacks, it just destroys any credibility your argument may have.

  33. -A-

    Newsflash, I have some news for you, the interest rate problems have not even begun yet, there are several trillion dollars of resets coming up in 2008, that is when the real fun starts.

    The bubble burst, the prices dropped, and there is no greater fools left to buy.

  34. -A-

    it just destroys any credibility your argument may have.

    I don’t care if my “argument” has credibility with you.

    I repeat, you have been right for a long time for the wrong reasons.

    The facts will catch up to you specuvestors and realtors.

  35. Skeptic

    As I said, it seems like you’ve got it all figured out. Hope you are positioned to take advantage. i.e. back yourself

  36. paulb

    A

    Whats with all the Realtor hating? Your a rabid Anti-Realite.

  37. Annon

    mk-kids, I am not an expert nor the best person to answer this but I will explain the best I can. A bank needs to have 1 dollar cash (or called reserve) for every 10 dollars they lend to someone/some company. Before the credit crunch, banks are able to originate loans/mortgages to borrowers (people or corporates). Easy credit just means it was easy for banks to find buyers of debt obligations (or securities of debts) so that banks ultimately do not need to have much reserve as they are just the middle layer. One of a bank’s typical operation is to provide funds to borrowers that were agreed and signed upon (agreement could be recent or a while back). If all of a sudden banks have many loans to fulfill but no buyers for the debts, it means the bank must come up with enough cash/reserve requirements. In bad case, a bank may have to liquidate some of their assets. A few things to note here:
    1. if banks break those agreements, there are penalties which banks usually try to avoid.
    2. since banks make much of their profit being the middle layer, they would try their best to not lose business in doing this
    3. if corporates are not able to get loans for their operations (many companies in Alberta can not survive without credit/loans), it means job loss for the market too
    4. if people can not get loans for buying houses…. you know more than most people being a frequent visitor of this blog …
    5. there are short term borrowed funds that banks don’t need include in their balance sheet the way long term assets do. taking away the buffer, banks not only will have much larger losses being forced to liquidate. and this will cause re-pricing of many type of assets banks have. And banks will try to avoid this the best they can too.

    You can imagine things can go very bad …. credit crunch, over-priced assets/equities/housing will be priced to market. The down spiral can be pretty bad in the big picture.

  38. abc

    Newsflash says “There has never been a significant decline in housing prices in BC without interest rate hikes.”

    Nominal house prices peaked in Vancouver in 1981. But 5 yr mortgage rates in July ’81, ’82, ’83 were 19%, 19% and 13% respectively.

    There was another peak in 1995. But 5 yr mortgages in July ’95, ’96 were both 8.5 percent. This was followed by a decline.

    So, it seems to me that your conjecture does not fit the data.

  39. Annon

    BTW, if you haven’t seen this, I think it’s well worth the time to see the 47 min video on how money/debt is created.

    http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-9050474362583451279

  40. ceejay

    Hey, the GST is going down to 5%…that’s 7K less on a typical YVR home….so take that, Bears.
    7k= 1 very cool weekend in vegas, or,a cheap 2002 used car, or…14K in 15 years in a decent savings acount.

  41. Annon

    I think it’s not wise for the federal government to cut GST to 5%. I mean what’s 1% to most of us in daily life? But that 1% will take away a huge chunk of revenue for the government and I rather they continue with some of the useful social/medical/education programs rather than that silly 1% cut.

  42. Anonymous

    ceejay
    October 16th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
    “Hey, the GST is going down to 5%…that’s 7K less on a typical YVR home….so take that, Bears.”

    That’s 7K less on a typical NEW YVR home…..won’t save you much (except 1% on closing costs) if you are buying a $700,000 pre-owned home in East Van or $1 Million starter home in Van West.

  43. OK. We all make mistakes!

    But a sell/list number like this… twice in a row is scary considering if he/she is the realtor to help you buy or sell.

  44. chip

    “I mean what’s 1% to most of us in daily life? But that 1% will take away a huge chunk of revenue for the government and I rather they continue with some of the useful social/medical/education programs rather than that silly 1% cut.”

    Such touching faith in the wisdom of government and its spending. If you scratched a little further into the subject you might find that lower taxes actually increase government revenue. A seeming paradox, I know. The world is a crazy place.

  45. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/2t5qqp

    The Re/Max real estate company sees Canadian home sales slowing in 2008 while prices rise 6 per cent, on average.

    single digit increase?!?

    you call that a party?

  46. News Flash

    “Nominal house prices peaked in Vancouver in 1981. But 5 yr mortgage rates in July ‘81, ‘82, ‘83 were 19%, 19% and 13% respectively.”

    What were they in the previous 3 years. Much lower (in 1979 they were 12% so a 7% increase along with a recession in 1981/1982). I agree if mortgage rates go up 7% and we have a recession housing prices will fall 45% just like 1982.

    “There was another peak in 1995. But 5 yr mortgages in July ‘95, ‘96 were both 8.5 percent. This was followed by a decline.”

    Again check what they were just prior.

    “So, it seems to me that your conjecture does not fit the data.”

    Or you don’t interpret the data correctly.

  47. abc

    Newsflash, I agree that they increased prior. So to clarify your conjecture (only a clear statement has potential to be useful for predictions) one should state that interest rate hikes often precede a decline in house prices, and in fact house prices may decline in the face of mortgage rates that stay flat or decline.

    Since mortgage rates (again 5 yr average numbers) have been going up 5.39 (Oct 05), 6.01 (Oct 06), 6.31 (now) your theory indicates we can be concerned about a housing correction. Thank you for supplying that information.

  48. coco

    Even though the BoC kept the interest rate on hold, the banks raised their mortgage rates before the interest rate announcement was due out because of credit crunch concerns.

    So, you can say the BoC may lower interest rates in the future, but that may not bring any relief in mortgage rates. Banks have stated they may have to raise mortgage rates again in the future in addition to this recent rate increase.

  49. abc

    BTW, I meant to say mortgage rates (not interest rates) throughout my previous message.

  50. coco

    Banks raising mortgage rates independent of a BoC interest rate hike is a sign that credit is tightening in Canada.

  51. mk-kids

    Thanks Annon & others for your explanations. Very helpful.

  52. blueskies

    http://tinyurl.com/2astrh

    WSJ good reading….

    got coffee?

  53. coco

    Credit crunch seen leading to layoffs at banks (Canada)

    http://tinyurl.com/ywfamy

  54. vomitingdog

    Too bad freako doesn’t post here anymore.
    Didn’t he say:

    high house prices +low interest rates = price crash
    or
    high interest rates + low house prices = price crash

    doesn’t make any difference. This makes sense to me.

  55. Crabman

    If you scratched a little further into the subject you might find that lower taxes actually increase government revenue.

    This is only true when tax rates are prohibitivly high. If Canadian taxes are in this range, then your comment is true.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

  56. coco

    Jeff,

    Even a GIC will pay you a higher interest rate than your tbill fund.

  57. coco

    BoC does not set fixed term mortgage rates or credit card rates. (only variable mortgage rates or lines of credit move up and down with the prime lending rate) Interest rates for fixed term mortgages depend on the bond market. Banks depend on the bond market to raise money for mortgages. Interest rates on the bond market move up or down more frequently than the BoC prime interest rate because the bond market is far more sensitive to market fluctuations.

    Canadian banks raised mortgage rates .25% to reflect the rising cost of raising money in the bond market for mortgages. (otherwise referred to as credit crunch in the media recently)

    So, as you can see if banks have trouble raising money in the bond market for mortgages the mortgage rate will rise.

  58. Jeff

    coco,
    i want to have quick access to my cash should i want to make stock trades.
    @ 3.5% the t-bill fund is not the best… any other suggestions?

  59. abc

    A GIC cashable after 30 days gives 4.30% right now.

  60. abc

    That would be fully cashable, with accrued interest.

  61. coco

    Jeff,

    Most cashable GIC’s will yield 4.0% plus, but you have to leave your money untouched for 30 days, after that you can redeem anytime and interest will be paid up to the date you cash out.

    Some online banking accounts offer good rates.

    You can click on the discussion forum tab on this website, maybe you can get some ideas there. http://www.highinterestsavings.ca/

    Did you talk to a financial planner at your bank before you invested in this fund? Did they give you various options?

    Some credit unions have some good options too.

    Of course, only you know your financial situation the best and you will have to do your homework and call around to see who can offer you the best rate suitable for your situation.

    RBC doesn’t like to lose customers, because they like to maintain that #1 rating, so play your cards.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s