Wednesday Numbers

Rob has left, but he’s asked me to post these numbers.  I’ll try to keep them up to date, provided I have time. 

There were 301 new listings yesterday, and 173 sales, for sell/list 57.48%

Inventory was 11,777, while over 90s reached 2,697, or 22.9%.

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51 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

51 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. coco

    Credit crunch forces Cadbury to switch to US drink unit spin-off

    http://tinyurl.com/2bkqxm

    (interesting times, when well known companies that have been around for awhile have problems)

  2. coco

    IMF predicting 2008 economic slowdown in Canada and the U.S.

    http://tinyurl.com/2wuf3v

  3. reknab

    Thanks for the numbers.

  4. passerby

    Thanks for an update.

  5. whybuywhenucanrent

    Thanks for the update.

    I don’t understand why Rob finds the numbers “scary”–I assume he’s a Buyer’s Agent as well as a Seller’s Agent–increased inventory is only bad for folks representing sellers, it’s a boon for buyers.

    Whybuywhenucanrent

  6. paulb

    I think he was kidding. The numbers are almost the same as last year.

  7. robchipman

    wbwycr:

    I was kidding. I figured someone would interpret one of my annual trips as a capitulation to the bear market, that’s all. Numbers can’t be scary. Its just the market, and it does what it does. We all adjust. Play nice while I’m away! 🙂

  8. Grin and Bear It

    It seems many people are continually stating the numbers are like last year. That isn’t entirely true. Even if it is there are huge changes in relevant areas (the U.S. $, sub-prime, downturn in other provinces, importing/exporting to the US etc etc etc). Anyone ignoring these factors and assuming the market will be similar to last year might be in for a rude awakening. You can’t predict the market but when there enough factors stacked against you then you may want to take a closer look.

    The roadsign up ahead reads downturn.

    Beware the bear!

  9. /dev/null

    Am I imagining things or have rental postings on Craigslist gone nuts in the last two weeks? Seems more than the usual start-of-the-month flurry.

  10. Snick

    Ah me…

    ANOTHER interesting price DECLINE.

    Visit MLS # V660454

    It is a very nice house in Port Coquitlam with a rather nice basement suite.

    Let’s see now…498K to 454K and NOW it is 418K

    I’m sure there will be much more gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands to come, though.

  11. Strataman

    “Am I imagining things or have rental postings on Craigslist gone nuts in the last two weeks? ”
    No but it is differant. Numbers are the same roughly as last year, however there are reposts daily from Property Managers (ie Prompton) who appear to be new to Craiglist from my experience. They never used to post but filled vacancies with walk-ins looking for places. Reposting daily, also indicates to me a bit of desperation.

  12. Johnnyrent

    Here’s an interesting tidbit from California, for those convinced that a major correction requires high interest rates and/or a stumbling economy:

    ‘This is the weirdest downturn in the history of California,’ said GU Krueger, vice president at Irvine’s IHP Capital Partners, one of the largest U.S. investors in residential development. ‘Most previous downturns were driven by super-high interest rates or very weak economic fundamentals. This one is neither. It’s driven by prices getting ahead of incomes and by the drying up of financing that was making the run-up in pricing possible.’”

    “Most economists agree a turnaround won’t come until the excess inventory of new homes is burned off, foreclosure sales peter out and prices decline to a level enticing to buyers.”

    “‘It’s what happens the morning after the party is over,’ Krueger said. ‘We were overvalued, and now we’re depreciating – it will help with affordability, there’s no doubt about that.’”

    I don’t suggest that financing is drying up around here (although it is getting a little tighter). The comment does however illustrate what can happen when prices get so far ahead of incomes, despite a strong economy and low interest rates.

  13. coco

    On tonights U.S. news Las Vegas Housing market in free fall, outlook looks grim.
    ———————————————————–
    Even Century 21 shuts offices and files for bankruptcy there.

    http://tinyurl.com/2u9a5p

  14. Snick

    Exactlement, Johnnyrent.

    As I have thought in the past, WHAT IS THE DIFFERNCE?

    Low $ + HIGH rates = CRASH or…

    High $ + LOW rates = CRASH.

    Same end result. Dig?

  15. fish

    Rob – in case you are still around:

    I know you don’t like low-ballers, no realtors do. It takes time to write offers and no one wants to work with little chance of success.

    Also I think realtors probably look down on their colleagues who …’keep bringing low offers to the table’

    I wrote a low-balling post with an example at my blog to address some of these questions.

    http://fishre.blogspot.com/

  16. coco

    Subprime problem is now brewing into personal loans.

    Credit cards, mortgages, hedge funds, commercial paper, is there anything else left now?

  17. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Ya Coco I was thinkingof dropping my wife engagment ring as a down payment on a house… what do you think??

  18. coco

    Seattle home prices slip from last year

    http://tinyurl.com/3e56lx

  19. coco

    Unthinkable renter,

    I’d make sure it was a bachelor pad.

  20. Snick

    Thanks for the Seattle insight, Coco.

    I find it interesting that some people get all jiggy about Vancouver and Seattle being the same.

    Nope.

    Seattle is “just another American town” whereas Vancouver is…

    Oh, never mind.

  21. -A-

    Snick, you can’t compare Seattle to Vancouver. Does Seattle have Lululemon Headquaters?

    Or Rennie?

  22. Jeff

    Looks like a lot of rental supply out there.

    What typically happens in a down RE market to the rental supply?

  23. Jeff

    I want to thank everyone for all the great links from the global RE meltdown: Seattle, Portland, California, Florida, UK, etc… please keep the links coming.

  24. Skeptic

    “Seattle home prices slip from last year”

    Read the article, prices are down 0.01%, bears can really throw a party on that. Whoopee !

    Snick, I took a look at that MLS in Poco, it doesn’t look very attractive in the MLS pictures, what are comparables selling for ? Its in Poco, on a small lot (4,000 odd sqft) and its vacant, looks like someone has given it a coat of jam and is looking for a quick profit. Was $498k overly optimistic ?

  25. Ulsterman

    This story helped me understand how this market has continued its insane rise. I heard it today driving a colleague home from work:

    His girlfriend earns $42k and has been trying to get him to buy for the past couple of years, because property only goes up. She just bought a 2bd and flex in the new development by Royal Oak and Kingsway for $379k. It completes in Dec 09 and she only has to put 5% down – no further payments until completion.

    She calls Royal Bank for a mortgage because she needs to be pre-approved for the full purchase price in case she holds it through to completion. The RB employee tells her that she won’t get approval on her current salary, but tells her to say that she will be getting big raises over the next few years. I don’t know the exact details, but the gist is that he told her what to say and now she’s pre-approved based on a self-declared future income.

    So here’s a person with almost no financial knowledge getting approved for a mortgage almost 9 times her current income. If this isn’t Canada’s version of shark-like bubble lending i don’t know what is.

    I used to ask myself “who makes enough money to buy?”. Now i realise it’s people just like me, but with the new and improved (read lose) bank lending policies. My colleague said to me, “God, i hope this market continues to go up, cos she could never actually afford to pay the actual mortgage on this place.”

  26. M-

    Ulsterman, early this year, my wife and I were approved for a $500,000 mortgage. This was based on our (honest) self-declared income. No documentation required.

    The broker said it could be “massaged” to $600,000 if we said the right things. Liar loan.

    And he could push it up to $700,000 if the house had a basement suite. And he could push it further if we planned on having foreign students living with us.

    This was quite a change from my first mortgage three years ago (RBC), when they wanted me to really prove my income, and needed a letter of employment from my wife’s workplace.

    So at least earlier this year, it was downright easy to get approved for almost whatever value you wanted to be approved for. But beware– with mortgage rates going up (again), you’ll never own the house outright if you have to keep extending the amortization every time you renew the mortgage…

  27. abc

    Ulsterman, your post helps clarify a lot of my suspicions. Overall ownership rates are very high now and people who historically might have held off are instead diving in. This fear-based buying is enabled by easy credit. Ultimately high prices leads to new supply, and a depleted pool of buyers leads to decreased demand. And I haven’t even factored in the economic impact of a high dollar.

    I hope for your example, the purchaser gets the raises that she will need to keep her property.

  28. Ulsterman

    by the way i meant to write “loose” not “lose”. Trivial i know, but it was buggin’ me.

  29. Johnnyrent

    Snick

    The point being made about Seattle is the reversal of a trend that has long been cited as a market thus far impervious to the US RE malaise and which is directly comparable to Vancouver.

    I remember that up until very recently, California, and specifically the Bay Area, was held up as another example. Lately, local folks are comparatively silent on the subject of California. Seems we’re running out of geographical markets in the US which serve as an analogy, for some, to Vancouver’s “island unto itself” status.

    Consider the trend, Snick, not the quantum, and remember that a RE correction is a slow moving train wreck, not a collision.

  30. Johnnyrent

    Correction

    My comments were directed at Skeptic, not Snick. Sorry for any confusion.

  31. TI

    The possibility of 50% correction grows.
    The prices will go back to 2002.

    My friend said he will accept 25% below his asking price because of no bid now. He regret dropping price too late.

  32. coco

    Seattle prices fell a tiny bit, sure one can argue that this doesn’t mean a thing and the bull market is still on, but it may mean the start of a trend reversal too. It is premature to judge this market either way until more information comes available over the next few months to see where prices are heading.

  33. coco

    Credit crunch hits home with mortgage hikes
    Big banks increase rates as income growth slows and bad loan fears grow (Canada)

    http://tinyurl.com/2sdwy5

  34. coco

    Rising loonie squeezes mushroom growers in
    Abbotsford: Nearly 70 per cent of B.C. production exported to U.S.

    http://tinyurl.com/32jjcq

  35. coco

    Colliers International says loonie could impact Vancouver market

    http://tinyurl.com/34l2yz

  36. coco

    British Columbia’s Economic Growth Solid but Downward Pressures Persist: RBC

    http://tinyurl.com/3x9b3n

  37. coco

    Personal disposable income surges in B.C.
    Rate of growth is double Ontario’s, trails only Alberta, but cost of living, debt levels higher

    http://tinyurl.com/2sylr2

  38. Dave

    I’ve been keeping a weather eye on Bob Truman’s Calgary numbers. Today’s daily stats show a big, big decline (I know, it’s only one day, but it reinforces the downward trend as shown, and it’s by far the biggest one day variation in either direction that I’ve noticed).

    Yesterday’s Sales: 419,155
    last 7 days: 457,363
    Last 30 days: 464,556

    And for comparison:

    Oct 31, 2006 (month avg): 424,013

  39. Dave

    Oh, and so far the Calgary peak was in July, with an average price of 505,920. That’s close to a 10% correction in less than three months, if you take the seven day stats as indicative.

  40. Grin and Bear It

    I find it funny how some people on this blog find certain language and comments insulting but then go on to make snide remarks themselves. Politeness is often a two way street so if someone is taking a shot at you there might be a good reason. I note some bloggers probably don’t even realize they’re saying something that can be considered insulting. This is off topic but I can’t help but notice some people preaching politeness when they themselves have made some pretty stupid/rude comments on here.

  41. Coq_Mike

    Interesting listing Snick:

    Visit MLS # V660454

    Have driven by this house and if so did you notice anything that might make it undesirable?

  42. jesse

    “And he could push it up to $700,000 if the house had a basement suite. And he could push it further if we planned on having foreign students living with us.”

    This has been exactly my experience as well. Banks will verify your salaried income but will not verify your rental income from suites. This is “stated income” by any other name. I don’t know if the bank will verify if having renters and boarders is actually occurring or even possible in specific situations. I am sure this is being driven by increased competition in the mortgage market.

  43. Priced Out

    MLS # V660454 is an ugly Vancouver special. I wouldn’t pay even $300,000 for it.

  44. Jeff

    fyi… assessment last year $460,000

  45. Domus

    Guys,

    have a look at this new blog by Fish, it is excellent and gives plenty of info on price changes for identical properties.

    http://fishre.blogspot.com/

    Also, he has a great post on low-balling offers: i am sure there are agents who keep a low profile and specialize in low-balling. It is a reputation business after all and these agents will be very popular with buyers to get them good deals.
    How often do they do it? Which ones are the best? What is the best “cut” to start with when low-balling? These are all fair questions that should be addressed by potential buyers…

  46. Grin and Bear It

    I could not care less if sellers and their agents are offended by low-ball offers. Prices are moronic. The prices are not fair or reasonable. What’s the worse that can happen? They say no. If they’re insulted by the offer? Who cares. They should be ashamed at asking these prices 🙂

  47. Snick

    Priced Out
    October 12th, 2007 at 11:26 am

    “MLS # V660454 is an ugly Vancouver special. I wouldn’t pay even $300,000 for it.”

    Agree. I didn’t say I would BUY it,although it does appear to be in decent condition.

    Still priced too high for what we will see later on.

    Why catch the proverbial falling knife?

  48. Anonymous

    “Reposting daily, also indicates to me a bit of desperation”

    Is this not true even for the bears?

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