Friday and Tuesday Numbers

There were 257 new listings today, and 114 sales, for a sell/list of 44.36%.  Inventory was 11,746, while over 90s were  2,692 (22.92%).

 Friday was a monster bear day: 310 new listings and 94 sales, for a sell/list of 30.32%.

These numbers are getting so scary that I’m going to take a break for a while.  I’ll try to post Wednesday and Thursday, but I might not be able to do so.  After that I’m gone for the balance of this week and next week (veterans of this blog will remember I did the same thing last year).

Meanwhile, I noticed two interesting things in the Post over the weekend.  A traditional pro and con of buying versus renting really didn’t have anyone promoting buying too strenuosly, but did have Sam Kolias, of Boardwalk Properties and Derek Lobo, of DALA Inc., praising the advantages of renting. Interstingly, Kolias pointed out that buying cost about 150% of renting 10 years ago, and today it costs…about 150% of renting. The problem is that both renting and buying are much more expensive. He has some other good observations.

And Jacqueline Thorpe had something that I’m sure will be of interest to Coco: in Saturday’s “Jobs machine keeps on chugging” she quotes Marc Chandler, who says the worst of the credit crunch is behind us. Look for more statements to this effect (imho).

Advertisements

84 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers, National Post

84 responses to “Friday and Tuesday Numbers

  1. deb

    Thank you.
    Have a nice break.

  2. Jeff

    why the break at this time… is it because real estate traditionally grinds to a halt this time of year?

  3. pearl

    The own vs rent issue is pretty tiresome. It seems to me that when you crunch the numbers you see that the merits of one versus the other (over the short term, say < 5 yrs) depend almost entirely on short term house price appreciation, which is unknowable.

    You can say over the long run appreciation is say 5%, but there is massive uncertainty attached to that estimate right now. So it’s basically an empty debate.

  4. pearl

    From that National Post article:

    “If you think prices are going to fall, heck, sell your place and rent. If you think they are
    going up, go out and buy,” says Mr. Lobo.

    Gee… thanks for your input.

  5. Snick

    “These numbers are getting so scary…”

    Well, Hallween IS just around the corner.

  6. fish

    Very nice numbers for bears…bears out what I have been seeing (sorry for the pun).

    Rob’s going away and two bear blogs have closed.

    Where are we going to get our fix from?

  7. coco

    The bloom is still on the real estate rose (Vancouver)

    http://tinyurl.com/2qzaoh

  8. coco

    High house prices spur switch to condo-building
    (Vancouver)

    http://tinyurl.com/ypbqu4

  9. coco

    Jump in Canada housing starts is biggest since 1978

    http://tinyurl.com/2796gp

  10. coco

    Affordable housing crisis upon us (Fraser Valley)

    http://tinyurl.com/2hnsha

  11. Anonymous

    Of course Sam Kolias, “chief executive of Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust, which owns and operates more than 35,000 units” is going to encourage consumers to rent instead of buying. Thats a given.

    Boardwalk’s number one goal is to coax more consumers into renting units (preferably theirs of course) and discourage them from buying…thereby reducing the vacancy rate & allowing them to invest their massive REIT capital as demanded by the REIT investors funding their company into buying buildings devoid of current high prices.

    How great business would be for them if it was understood by the masses that renting was the way to go?

    The ability to accumulate properties in bulk while driving up their rents on their 35,000 and growing units. Bidding wars for rental units? That’s a Sam Kolias wet dream and he’ll surely spin the press all he can to accomplish the task of convincing the masses that renting is the way to go to make it a reality.

  12. coco

    Greenspan sees US economy toll from credit crunch

    http://tinyurl.com/2knq9h

  13. coco

    Canadians take loonie for a ride (purchasing U.S. vehicles)

    http://tinyurl.com/2s6tma

  14. coco

    One should not be afraid of insulting owners/realtors by making lower offers.

    If you can find out why the owner is selling it is to your advantage, then you know how motivated they really are.

    Some realtors will try to convince you to put an offer in close to asking price. (not necessary, realtors have to present all offers that is the law)

    My realtor was not too happy I offered 40k below asking on a sharply priced property. Offer accepted. (still have to go through home inspection, using very thorough inspector)

    That said, my mortgage payments/property taxes will be lower than my current rent, so this situation works for me. Yes, there is a chance I bought at a top, but the outcome remains to be seen too.

  15. tqn

    good job, coco. you made the numbers work for you, not the other way around!
    would you care too much if you bought at the top? your monthly payment is cheaper than rent! cant beat that!

  16. Tony Danza

    Anonymous 7:47,

    You sir/madam, are an idiot.

  17. Jeff

    Hey coco… I’m a Realtor and I thought the buyers had disappeared… you’re giving me some hope.

  18. Grin and Bear It

    Coco, it seems like you did buy at a top but the numbers work. It’s even more logical if that’s your actual residence that you plan on keeping for a while. It seems you only get really hurt when the RE purchase is just for investment and you’re looking to flip etc (never a good idea at the top). I don’t think any of this is groundbreaking news but there you have it!

    Rent vs. buy? Rent at this time. Buying now is tough and the prices are beyond stupid in most areas especially in Vancouver. I can understand people with good resources buying in this market but I cannot understand the average person buying now and over extending himself/herself. The reality check is on it’s way in! Heaven forbid any increase in mortgage rates etc!

    Rob, have a good break and don’t forget to get in a chorus of Kumbaya for me! Hang in there and look out for bears!

  19. Anonymous

    Thanks Tony Danza! Thanks for the kind & wonderful words of wisdom. Care to elaborate WHY it is that I’m an idiot?

    We’d love to hear your thoughts on my argument instead of just bland old insults…. Maybe you could offer a counterpoint or debate or something on the points being made? We’re all waiting.

    Because surely then we’ll get a glimpse of who the real idiot is.

  20. david

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSBOM9740920071009

    sorry sub-prime is far from over according to reuters.

    2009 will be the ‘peak’ as they have ‘underestimated the extent to which fraud was occurring in the industry’

    no shit!

    I know you feel otherwise Rob, as they say time will tell. me I am amazed everyday that the ‘system’ holds together.

  21. Priced Out

    Rob, have a nice break and thank you for this blog.

  22. /dev/null

    Hi Anonymous,

    Here’s my counterpoint for what it’s worth: sure Kolias has a bias – it’s clear in the story and he’s not denying it. But we’re bombarded every day by people in the real estate industry who also clearly have a bias. So how is this any different, except that he is recommending something different (rent instead of buy)? After 5+ years of constant “buy buy buy” pressure in media and advertising don’t you think it’s a bit hypocritical to jump all over this guy now? At least he’s using actual numbers, unlike Rennie and his (IMO) dishonest hyperbole and innuendo.

    (I would also have liked Tony to supply his reasoning.)

  23. robchipman

    /dev/null/

    Kolias has a bias, according to you and anonymous 7:47. Fair enough. 7:47 isn’t really being hypocritical, but Tony Danza is being plain rude.

    (FWIW, Kolias’ bias seems straightforward and, based on his explanation, fact supported. There’s no real question that its cheaper to rent, short term, and that buying is an expensive proposition. Whether its cheaper to rent long term is tough to determine without some hard particulars – it could go either way).

    Coco:

    Good points. In regard to writing a lowball, the offer should reflect market value to be succesful; list price is not critical. Generally I don’t like lowballs, because the odds of success are low. When average sales are less than 1% off list its likely that list prices tend to be close to market value. However, let’s not forget that I report sales that have gone at 12%-15% off list pretty frequently, and sometimes we see even higher deltas. That indicates that market value and list price aren’t the same, and market value is more important (unless you can’t live without the property).

    That said, you can still lowball and steal a property for less than market value. Its possible. Find a widow or orphan and away you go. I don’t like that kind of business myself, and won’t do it. But it is possible.

    Your Realtor should be happy to present any reasonable offer, with reasonable being roughly equivelant to market value. Your Realtor shouldn’t help you rip off widows and orphans. If you’re offering market value, or close to it, and your Realtor isn’t onside, get another Realtor.

    BTW, congrats on your purchase and I hope it works out well.

    G&B:

    How can you say its a good time to buy and that the numbers work for coco? We’re missing some critical info, no?

    David:

    Be that as it may, look for more comments that the credit crunch is over. Listen to me now, hear me later 🙂

    Jeff:

    Break now has nothing to do with real estate.

  24. jesse

    “Your Realtor shouldn’t help you rip off widows and orphans. ”

    It’s not fair to say all desperate sellers are widows and orphans. I think a lot of people out there would have absolutely no problem lowballing a speculator that got too greedy.

  25. Dignan

    “David:

    Be that as it may, look for more comments that the credit crunch is over. Listen to me now, hear me later ”

    I don’t get what you’re saying here. Are you saying it is over, or that we will be hearing it’s over a lot more.

  26. Priced Out

    What’s wrong with lowballing? They don’t have to accept your offer. At some point in the future, if the market has been dead for a few years, sellers (even widows and orphans) will be thankful for any offer. You’ll be doing them a favour.

  27. WoW

    Rob, if you are able to post wed/thurs #’s it would be greatly appreciated – enjoy your break!

  28. New Investor Rob

    Rob

    I generally agree with almost everything that you write, but I have to disagree on the Widows and Orphans comment.

    Fair market value is whatever is accepted by the seller. Its not as if other people don’t have the ability to make offers on the place. Nobody complained when fair market value shot the prices sky high. I’m sure that 40k off whatever the list price is still a pretty good price compared to what it was a few years ago.

    Nobody complained for the widows and orphans when they were priced out.

    Congratulations Coco, but I thought you were a Bear. Not sure why you would buy if you still think that prices are going to fall. Maybe I got the wrong guy.

    Case in point, its people like you who make the numbers work ( good job, high rent) that are keeping the market up.

  29. New Investor Rob

    One more thing. If a RE won’t present your low ball offer, make sure you fire them.

  30. Overpaying

    “Your Realtor should be happy to present any reasonable offer, with reasonable being roughly equivelant to market value. Your Realtor shouldn’t help you rip off widows and orphans. If you’re offering market value, or close to it, and your Realtor isn’t onside, get another Realtor.”

    OMG let me ask you this then how come realtors are in such a hurry to present a overlist price. If that isn’t calling the kettle black I don’t what is.

    Funny how lowballing is unethical or frowned upon but waiting for 9 offers to be presented on a sunday to see which is highest is common business.

    Or even better going back to the original offers and letting them know that more is needed to win the property.

    BC is a joke when it comes to the regulation of realtors. Im not saying Rob falls into this category but come on. This is right up there with the satillite business in terms of corruptness. Anyone with 12 weeks and a ability to read can obtain a realtors license.

    Can’t wait to see the number of realtors come crashing down. I remember back in the 90’s when they went from 12k down to just under 6 in less then 1 1/2 thats when the cream rises to the top.

    Anyways thanks for the blog Rob and keep up the good work.

  31. awum

    You can just feel the MoI rising around us can’t you?

    🙂

  32. Priced Out

    “One more thing. If a RE won’t present your low ball offer, make sure you fire them.”

    In fact, if we get a Florida scenario of rapid depreciation, the buyer’s RE should be encouraging a low ball to protect their client from further falling prices.

    “Dear client, I know you want to offer $500,000 on that house but it could easily be worth $400,000 a year from now. I strongly recommend you offer $375,000. I know you love this house and don’t want to upset the seller, but there are many other lovely houses on the market at the moment.”

    Now, that’s working for your client.

  33. mk-kids

    “Your Realtor should be happy to present any reasonable offer, with reasonable being roughly equivelant to market value. ”

    Thanks for that definition of reasonable Rob. That might hold true in a market that hadn’t been manipulated over the edge of insanity. Under the current cicumstance, your definition is a load of crap. Current market value is not by any stretch of the imagination reasonable. I would suggest offers much closer to the historic trend line a more appropriate measure for reasonable.

  34. mk-kids

    According to Mohican’s calculations August 31, 2007, that would be a 25% haircut on a single family detached home. A whole lot more I’m sure on condos & townhouses…

    http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/2007_08_01_archive.html

  35. robchipman

    Jesse: Its a turn of phrase. What are you trying to make me do? Admit that there’s an implied meaning? 🙂 Anyone who doesn’t know the value of their property is, for the purposes of this discussion, a widow or an orphan, regardless of their actual marital or parental status.

    A desperate seller is not the same thing. I buy an investment property for $100, 100% financed, with neg cash flow. Market drops, plus I lose my job. Market value now equals $75, and my monthly cash hemorraghe is killing me. I’m desperate, but that doesn’t mean I don’t know the value of my property. And it doesn’t make a market value offer a lowball offer. I define lowball, fwiw, as a factor of market value, not asking price.

    Priced out:

    The bad thing about lowballing is that it tends to waste a lot of people’s time, including unrealistic potential buyers. If everyone is going into it with eyes open, fine and dandy.

    That said, I think my working definition of a lowball (its based on market value rather than list price) addresses your scenario. I think that you’re talking about market value offers in a market with radically decreased values.

    NIR:

    I’ve worked with unsophisticated property sellers and buyers. Learning how to do that is one of the biggest challenges in RE. I have no interest in taking advantage of people to make a quick buck. I’m not sure that you’re saying that doing so is ok, or if we’re blurring the lines between real market value and list price. If a person without a real idea of their property value is riding a market down, it would be ethical to explain that and get them to take what looks like a lowball (especially if your pro opinion is that the next offer will be lower). We’ve seen those markets. I’m really talking about making what should be a win-win into a win-lose.

    Overpaying:

    Presenting lowballs and presenting overlists are two sides of the same coin. Most multiple offers result in no sale (stands to reason, right? many offers, only one sale, at least one, and maybe more, offers fail). Lowballs fall in the same category. Most fail. That doesn’t mean either are wrong. It means that both should be done correctly. There is a method to the madness.

    Point of order: lowballs, in and of themselves, aren’t unethical.

    Priced Out:

    Your recommended course of action (offer $375 on a $500 listing to protect against a $100 drop) would likely result in no sale, and everyone’s time and emotions wasted, unless market value was really around $375. Why bother? If its only an exercise in putting on a blindfold and throwing a dart, great, provided everyone is on board with that. If you know that you’ll have to write 100 lowballs to get a sale, fine and dandy (builders and their agents do a variation of this). But if you think lowballing will get you the best house in the least amount of time with a minimum of inconvenience, and I go along with you, it is bound to end in tears.

    MK-Kids:

    I’d love to agree with you, but market value doesn’t factor in insanity’s manipulative nature. It is what it is. 🙂

    Seriously, this market was called insane more than two years ago. 25% haircut from today? It would still make sense to buy in earlier insane markets. Market value really needs to be a snapshot of willing buyers and sellers, or else it becomes irrelevant.

  36. Tony Danza

    Fellow posters,

    I apologize for the rude response. I agree that Kolias has an incentive to be biased toward renting over buying. Would you also agree that a banker who recommends that you keep 3 months of salary stashed away in your savings account in case of an unforeseen emergency is biased? I mean the banker stands to profit from the cash in your account.

    If Anonymous 7:47 can back up his “landlords are biased” rant with some data that shows how renting in todays real estate market does not make sense financially then I would extend my apologies .

    The way I see it Anonymous 7:47’s post is idiotic.

  37. mk-kids

    I didn’t say that insanity is manipulative. I said the market has been manipulated to insanity. Big difference. I’ll let folks decide for themselves who might be responsible for that manipulation.

    Yes, we agree on something Rob. The market was called insane 2 years ago. To my mind rightly so. The fact that it continued to increase doesn’t mean it wasn’t/isn’t insane.

    In any market that goes up, it will always make sense to have bought in earlier. I’m not really sure what your point is… funny thing though, that hindsight. Easy to invoke, now if only we could predict with such accuracy.

    Mohican’s analysis indicates that 25% off SFH prices today is where the market should be – based on fundamentals.

  38. robchipman

    Tony Danza:

    Nice apology, and I thank you for it. Name calling isn’t really needed. I think you’re stretching saying 7:47’s post is idiotic – after all, it is in Kolias’ and Boardwalk’s interest to have everyone rent from them. Not likely to happen, I agree, and Kolias’ comments, while in his interest, are fact based, but 7:47 is really indentifying some reasonably accurate points.

    MK-Kids;

    You’re right. I read too fast. My point remains: if you think the market was insane 20%, 30% or 40% ago, but it keeps going, what exactly does insane mean and what exactly does market value mean? My definition is limited to a snapshot, but more workable within that limited area than your more encompassing one.

  39. jesse

    “And it doesn’t make a market value offer a lowball offer.”

    I understand your distinction. Lowballs trying to find someone who is ignorant to give you a “steal” below the true market rate is one thing (and arguably immoral). Lowballing because you think the market is overpriced is another.

    That said, in some specific areas in the US, nobody, including the Realtors, has any confidence what “current market value” is, when listings are high and sales are low. Lowballing in this market is game-on in my opinion, regardless of who the seller is, only because the “market rate” is based upon historical data that is quickly out of date. It’s the other side of the bidding war coin.

    Also consider if a family comes and makes an offer on your property above list and you know they cannot afford it (analogous to a defaulted subprime buyer in the US), would you reject the offer? Personally, I am loth to pass judgement on one’s ability to afford a house so I’d take the $. Buying from someone just as ignorant is more difficult but it’s really really grey. Single mother whose husband just died in a car crash to speculator who tried one flip too many and all points in between.

    Hate to say it, but lots of people get lots of rich using fear. Bears are no different.

  40. mk-kids

    I would disagree that the meanings of insanity and market value are relative. Surely you aren’t implying that they change because the re market continues to gain value?

    From Wikipedia: “Insanity, or madness, is a general popular and legal term defining behavior influenced by mental instability. It is defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary as a deranged state of the mind or lack of understanding.”

    The International Valuation Standards (IVS) define Market Value as: Market Value is the estimated amount for which a property should exchange on the date of valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arms-length transaction after proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgably, prudently, and without compulsion

    By this definition, buyers who lack understanding, behave recklessly & feel pressured or coerced can not accurately determine market value. I would suggest that the market value to which you refer (ie: that of the last 5 years) has been set by a whole lotta people who seem to exhibit these sorts of characteristics. Hence my conclusion that current market value does not equate to fair market value and is not really an accurate reflection of valuation in todays re market.

    It’s true my snapshot isn’t a snapshot at all, but really a panorama. I like to see the whole picture, let’s say 50 years, rather than just the past 5.

  41. Anonymous 7:47

    Tony Danza,

    Wow. You entirely mis-read my post & completely missed the point. My original post was 100% geared at the intentions of Boardwalk & Kolias. Nothing more, nothing less. Re-read it again & maybe you’ll see.

    In no way, shape or form was I going off on renters and “renting in todays real estate market does not make sense financially”. So there’s no “data” for me to provide, because that was never what I was arguing! Ha!

    My original post is not about that but instead about the intentions of the person the newspaper interviewed. Looks like it hit a sore spot with you.

    For what its worth, that was probably the worst apology ever. Opening with an apology, then closing the post with the exact same rude thing you said before. Great work.

    Thus, in closing, I’d like to thank-you for taking the time to elaborate as I requested. In doing so, you’ve accomplished what I thought you would. You’ve proven that you totally missed the boat on what I had said, and thereby tipped your cards for us all to see – who the “idiot” actually is.

    Just as I anticipated would happen.

  42. Grin and Bear It

    Rob, I only mentioned the numbers worked for Coco because HE said they worked for him. 🙂
    I am not about to say I know his financial situation but I trust he knows what is within his means (especially when the mortgage will be cheaper than his rent, as he noted).

  43. robchipman

    MK:

    I’m saying that what was appeared insane two years ago doesn’t look that way any longer because rents have risen enough to justify those purchases (crunch the numbers and you’ll see I’m right on that).

    That begs the question: will rents rise enough in the next two years to justify a purchase today? I think we’ll agree that that is unlikley.

    However, I think we also have to agree that the insanity call of two years ago was misguided. And we haven’t gotten any smarter since then, so… In other words, insanity doesn’t change, but the people making the diagnosis aren’t always correct.

    Now, as for your intriguing argument that buyers over the last 5 years have lacked understanding, behaved recklessly, been coerced or felt pressured, I’m not sure how you’d demonstrate that objectively, or how you’d show the buyer of the last 5 years to be different from buyers in other markets, but I’d love to see you give it a try.

  44. robchipman

    MK:

    I forgot to mention: I think market value is irretrievable relative. Insanity? Not so much 🙂

    G&B: Coco’s a SHE!

  45. Grin and Bear It

    I also have to agree with the various posts that state there is nothing wrong with low-ball offers etc. I found it rather sickening when I was in the market a year ago and RE agents were trying to get me into a bidding war. It never seems to be an ethical issue when it favors them. 🙂

  46. coco

    Wow, I go off to my home inspection and look a all this conversation that takes place without me.

    My inspector found rot, sills rotting, windows installed incorrectly, flashings installed turned down instead of up, elastomeric paint (rubberized type paint) is covering up the stucco, so you can’t see the extent of the rot that has gone on beneath it.

    As they say, “No Deal”

    I have mentioned before I really don’t consider myself a bear or bull.

  47. coco

    I might be more bearish after this telephone call I just received from my bank though.

    Mortgage rates are going up tomorrow. Interesting that they are jumping the gun before the BOC announcement.

  48. Tony Danza

    Anon 7:47,

    This is somewhat pedantic but, you said:

    “Boardwalk’s number one goal is to coax more consumers into renting units (preferably theirs of course) and discourage them from buying…”

    and:

    “How great business would be for them if it was understood by the masses that renting was the way to go?”

    and:

    “…he’ll surely spin the press all he can to accomplish the task of convincing the masses that renting is the way to go…”

    So what are you saying? Renting is not the way to go? What is he spinning? You believe buying is more financially sound at this stage of the market? If you do then prove it with some data, if you don’t then what are you talking about?

  49. robchipman

    TD:

    Boardwalk buys properties that renters pay for. It may not be the number 1 goal (I think 7:47 is over-doing that), but its pretty clear that more renters for Boardwalks properties = more income and potentially more profit.

    I think its fair to say that “spinning”the masses could be a somewhat harsh way of saying “marketing” renting as a viable or preferable alternative to buying.

    Recognizing that Boardwalk can benefit from that type of marketing is not the same as saying renting is not the way to go, and I can’t see how you think 7:47 is saying that.

    Neither renting nor buying are better or worse, in general. Its the particulars that make the difference. From a landlords pov its clear that erasing the option as much as possible, and making renting the only way to go, would be beneficial (to the landlord).

    Coco:

    Too bad about the news. Did you not suspect those problems when you looked at the house?

  50. coco

    Rob,

    Getting a property slightly below market value is not ripping off anyone. Geez! The couple got married later in life and both decided to sell their places and buy something together. If they wish to accept a lower offer so they can get on with their lives together that is their decision. Waiting for the highest priced offer possible may not be the most important thing to every seller.

    Even appraisers give you high/low/mean averages. The first property I purchased here came in 3k below the lowest appraisal amount, but noone thought is was unreasonable.

  51. coco

    Rob,

    Unless your with an inspector you would not be able to detect this problems on your own, it was kind of hidden and higher up.

    But…I have now learned what to look for.

  52. Anonymous 7:47

    Tony Danza,

    Are you for real? Are you being serious?
    Is THAT how you took what I was saying?

    Wow.
    You’ve jumped to some serious conclusions to have to take all that in one post and conclude that I’m an idiot. And in the process you’ve just tipped your cards even further and given more supportive facts of who the real “idiot” is.

    Are you insecure about renting right now?

    I wouldn’t be, it makes perfect sense right now Tony Danza. Especially if you assume what the mortgage payment + monthly fees for the house or condo you are living costs, subtract the amount of rent you currently pay and bank/invest the difference. Don’t be insecure. Feel good about it and keep on working it.

    There you go. Maybe that helps you paint me into a “bull” or “bear” corner that you are so desperately trying to divide posters into?

    Lighten up Tony. Take a deep breath & take note of all those quotes that you highlighted that I had said. They all have to do with the intentions/spinnings of Boardwalk & its leader. It’s good business for them to try and sell the idea of renting to the masses thereby supporting Boardwalk’s business model, no? That’s all I was getting at. Nothing more, nothing less.

    I saw blatant advertising to the masses about renting from Boardwalk in the same article that highlighted the massive amount of properties held as rental properties by Boardwalk. Didn’t you? Kinda a neat coincidence, no?

    I though I’d point it out as interesting, what a crime! REITs in general I find fascinating because they focus primarily on rents & vacancy rates, and prices of properties a distant second. This is a reversal from the general attitude here. I merely felt it was important to highlight that stuff & maybe also to get away from the tedious bull vs bear campaign. So I guess THAT makes me an idiot? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

    All too often (especially here), its appears to be common practice to take newspaper articles and those quoted in them as gospel. The media is a powerful force & one that needs to be constantly questioned. And questioned I did and will continue to. Big frickin’ deal.

    What provoked you to insult? Bad day at work Tony? Concerned that I may have swayed someone away from renting and into buying? As if.

    Maybe it would be easier for you if we all started our posts before with “Hi, I’m Anonymous 7:47 and I am a proud “bear”. Or alternatively, “Hi, I’m Anonymous 7:47 and I am a proud “bull”? Because that’s where you’re going with this.

    Why is it that we should have to wear a bull or bear badge?

    Finally, to summarize, let me see if I understand you correctly: I’m an idiot because I highlight the fact that there was a big motive in the article to encourage people to rent by the person I said it. That instantly makes me a “bull” as opposed to a “bear” to you. This is because “bears” want everyone to rent, so the buying frezy dissipates & prices come down. My point being made earlier (at 7:47 to be exact!) it potentially harmed the viewpoint of bears or other proud renters. Making me of course an idiot. Since this doesn’t jive with you.

    More great work from Tony Danza.

  53. coco

    Realtor was sorry they missed the water problems too.

  54. mk-kids

    “I’m saying that what was appeared insane two years ago doesn’t look that way any longer because rents have risen enough to justify those purchases (crunch the numbers and you’ll see I’m right on that).”

    I have to disagree with you Rob. All this means is that buying or renting in this market, is an exercise in insanity. If real wages went up to a degree that supported these insane rents and mortgages, then I’d say we could talk fair market value. It takes 70% of the average income to purchase a SFH, it should be 33% or so. As long as this is the ratio we are working with – shelter costs to household income – market price is insane and of little value.

    “Now, as for your intriguing argument that buyers over the last 5 years have lacked understanding, behaved recklessly, been coerced or felt pressured, I’m not sure how you’d demonstrate that objectively, or how you’d show the buyer of the last 5 years to be different from buyers in other markets, but I’d love to see you give it a try.”

    It is intriguing isn’t it? A million anecdotes tell the story… no subject offers, buyers foregoing home inspections, ridiculous bidding wars, applying for & actually getting a mortgage that defies your actual income and conventional lending standards… I’m sure these and many others stories will be told once the insanity subsides. I just can’t describe the behaviour of these buyers as knowledgable, prudent, and without compulsion.

  55. jesse

    “Realtor was sorry they missed the water problems too.”

    Maybe. There are lots of honest Realtors out there but if I were you I wouldn’t assume this particular Realtor knew or didn’t know either way.

  56. mk-kids

    Oh, and I’m sure they’ll say the same when their house is worth half of what they paid for it & they realize the mess of trouble they’re in.

  57. mk-kids

    But I forgot… Vancouver is different.

  58. robchipman

    Coco:

    Getting a proeprty below market value isn’t ripping anyone off. Market value is price in dollars plus or minus other considerations. We generally say least amount of time, minimum of inconvenience, best price. Everyone has their own combination of those three goals. If you want fewer dollars and a faster sale, and the buyer offers fewer dollars and a faster sale, everyone wins. That’s not what I have a problem with.

    (We won’t touch the fact that at $40 k off a sharply priced listing that is later revealed to have enough problems that the buyer doesn’t proceed we perhaps have a property that was over-priced in the beginning, not sharply priced. Such a deal I have for you! 🙂 )

    G&B:

    If you think the Realtor is trying to get you in a bidding war, ask why. Ask how you’re going to win in that situation, and why you’d go into it. If they don’t have good answers, get a new Realtor.

    Multiple offers happen. Sometimes they’re worthwhile. Sometimes not. But you, as a buyer, shouldn’t feel pressured. You don’t have much control (you’re competing with other motivated buyers), but you’re still in command of your own actions. Your Realtor should tell you why you should do something, and if he’s good, and you’re smart, you’ll do it. But you shouldn’t feel pressured.

    I’ve walked away from competitive situations, and advised listing agents, upon submission of an offer, that if another offer appears, we’re walking. That’s one way to do it, and its worked for me both with clients and personally.

  59. coco

    Rob,

    I walked away because of the unknown possible rot factor that is hidden behind that elastomeric paint. Elastomeric paint can hide a multitude of sins. There could be a little, some or a ton of rot behind that paint. Had the paint been an exterior latex and you could see the exact stucco damage, I may of proceeded with my offer.

    Is the home sharply priced? Yes, if it didn’t have water problems or if you can see all the damage the water has caused to the stucco, so you could properly estimate the repair.

    Is it sharply priced when you can’t see the exact extent of the water damage because of the elastomeric paint? No, now it is overpriced.

  60. coco

    Now, the seller will have to disclose the water damage or fix it.

  61. Tony Danza

    Wow, Rob did you read the original post?

    “How great business would be for them if it was understood by the masses that renting was the way to go?”

    and:

    “…he’ll surely spin the press all he can to accomplish the task of convincing the masses that renting is the way to go…”

    How can you not infer from the statements above , which make up a large part of the post, that the poster is arguing that Kolias is misleading the “masses” on the issue of rent versus buy?

    You don’t need to spin anything when even a simpleton can calculate that it is more advantageous at this point in time to rent (excluding intangibles). It’s not a bull versus bear argument, it’s semantics!

    Anonymous 7:47 I never branded you a bull or a bear, I simply disagreed with your post and responded rudely. FWIW I insulted you once and since then you have repeatedly insulted me.

  62. coco

    Unknown/hidden repair costs are not my cup of tea. I’d rather know what I’m dealing with upfront and how much it will cost to repair.

  63. But I forgot… Vancouver is different.

    Vancouver is a place to b4 this world

    mskid,
    don’t go there for dinner again,mohican is a fake cook.

  64. Snick

    “…what exactly does insane mean?” – Rob Chipman on early-boom price gains.

    Now I’ve heard everything.

  65. robchipman

    Tony:

    I think that 7:47 was unduly harsh in his appraisal of Kolias’ spin, and as I said, Kolias’ bias seems pretty straightforward, and is pretty well grounded in fact.

    But ” even a simpleton can calculate that it is more advantageous at this point in time to rent”? I don’t rent. And when I bought it likely cost me at least 150% of what it would have cost me to rent the same place. Of course, I think that the particulars (not intangibles) are key. I think there are arguments to be made, right now, that buying is better than renting for certain people in certain situations. Remember, Kolias is a national landlord. Prices aren’t skyhigh everywhere that Boardwalk owns. In some of those places a simpleton might just think “Why throw rent money out the window?”

    You ask a fair question: “How can you not infer …that the poster is arguing that Kolias is misleading the “masses” on the issue of rent versus buy?” My answer is that I don’t think Kolias has to mislead the masses. Renting has a lot of advantages. He just has to point those advantages out (which he did). I think 7:47 might see it the same way. Nobody said Kolias’ mislead anyone. 7:47 just said (imho) “What would you expect him to say? He’s a huge landlord!” Again, I think 7:47 was a little over the top on the guy, though.

    I think you were a little harsh too, and its not too convincing to say “I only called you an idiot once and now you’ve called me one a bunch of times”. But, I’m probably overly sensitive 🙂

    Coco:

    Why does he have to disclose? It was your inspection, right? Do you know for a fact that he knows what the problems are, and were the problems pointed out in a clear enough manner that he can’t claim ignorance or opinion?

    I’m not trying to be difficult, but I don’t usually see the other side’s inspection report. Why would I? Did you give them a copy? (If so, interesting short term future).

    You’re correct that the seller is well advised to disclose all known defects (not forced to, mind you) and the listing Realtor is required to disclose known defects. But if they didn’t see the inspection report they don’t really know what the inspector said. In other words, a bad report to a prospective buyer doesn’t have to mean a price reduction for the next buyer.

    I think we can agree that you’ve learned two valuble things. Elastomeric paint is a red flag (I never like seeing it) and what looks like a smoking deal may not be one. $40,000 doesn’t go far with building trades these days. Go find another deal. (I know this name will send some people through the roof, but Dolf DeRoos says something like “Look at 1000, wak through 100, write on 10, close on 1”. That can be good advice.)

  66. Snick

    “If you think the Realtor is trying to get you in a bidding war, ask why.” – Rob

    Why oh why are there stars in the sky?

    Why oh why do the birds singing, fly?

    Can someone tell me why?

    My heart pines for knowledge and truth.

    Perhaps the answer should be “whine not”. Just pay up, sucka!

  67. Snick

    “I have to disagree with you Rob. All this means is that buying or renting in this market, is an exercise in insanity.” – mk kids

    Psst! Listen. You can “disagree” all you want. Won’t get you anywhere.

    Remember what Henry Ford said, “You can have the car any colour you want, as long as it’s black”.

  68. mk-kids

    oh, i know snick but i just couldn’t help myself…

  69. WoW

    great article regarding baby boomers and movement towards condos from sfh…wonder if demographics will impact prices? 12,000 by end of oct….oh, i think so…

  70. coco

    Rob,

    Stayed tuned…owner is still on their honeymoon cruise. I just signed the release yesterday.

    Our realtor did say they may want a copy of the inspection report. The rot goes 4″ into the sills and the wood is crumbling, kind of hard to hide that and any good inspector would catch the problem quite easily.

  71. coco

    Emphasis on “good” inspector.

  72. coco

    Wow,

    Condo listings are on the rise, not falling, so your theory doesn’t hold water at this time.

  73. Snick

    “Our realtor did say they may want a copy of the inspection report. The rot goes 4″ into the sills and the wood is crumbling, kind of hard to hide that and any good inspector would catch the problem quite easily.” – Coco

    Are you crazy? Why spend a heap of money for a heap of trouble?

    Patience. Patience.

  74. coco

    Snick,

    I backed out of the deal, if you read previous posts.

  75. coco

    Signing the release, is to release the contract to purchase, not to release the subjects.

  76. Snick

    Phew!

    I hope you told them off, too.

  77. coco

    Leaky houses, leaky townhouses, leaky condos, this city has them all.

    A builder once told me that the number of leaky homes, equals leaky condos, but you really don’t hear about the situation because they are owned by one individual and covered up more often.

  78. Snick

    Huckster, shysters and crooks.

    The owners probably think they have a “HOT!” property on their hands.

    They’ll find out…

  79. coco

    Some people just don’t maintain/inspect their homes as often as others. Water has to be coming through the walls before they even notice they have a problem.

    I went to an open house a few years ago and water was slowly dribbling down the wall on the fireplace rock surround. I pointed it out to the realtor and said you better disclose that and lower your price. They did, so some realtors and owners are actually honest when they discover water problems.

  80. coco

    Here is a very good sentence to put into your purchase and sale addendum: “Seller warrants that there has been no water ingress or flooding in the home”

    I put an offer into a townhouse once and discovered the entire basement was flooded with 4′ of water. Strata has to only provide 2 years of minutes when you purchase and this happened just prior to the two years of minutes. Turns out everyone who got flooded out at the complex, waited just over the two year period, so it would not be in the minutes when they sold.

  81. waited just over the two year period, so it would not be in the minutes when they sold.

    1.If the problem does not get fix that will show up in minutes.
    2.management can’t move forward unless the problem get fix.
    3.Most of buildings are insured so there is no reason to skip the fix on low cost.
    4.Inspection is a requirement to proceed with mortgage ,insurance documents are also require by the banks,or buyers.
    5.Those four reasons are enough so back to 1,2,3,4. unless some one is dumb to check all those documents ,and buy with cash money.

  82. coco

    Although the flooding was fixed in this townhouse, when I spoke to the City the flaw was in how the builder installed the pipes within the property boundaries itself. Pipes had too many branches the way they were installed and the city said a break could happen again and again, because the design is flawed.

    The strata only repaired the broken pipes, unless the problem happens for the second time, they are under no obligation to report a “possible” design flaw in their minutes.

  83. Snick

    Coco,

    I this townhouse in PoCo?

  84. coco

    Snick,

    Not anywhere near poco. But…if this situation sounds familiar in a totally different area, the reason is in the older building codes itself. Years ago, they allowed townhouse builders to use “Christmas tree” like branch piping systems within their complexes. This style of piping system proved to be prone to water main breaks and the building code was changed years later because of this problem.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s