I spent the weekend in Ucluelet, hence the new photo on the masthead. It was great to get away.
I was surprised by the development there. On the one hand it seems as if the classic paving of paradise is well underway. On the other hand, if I compare it to Cabo San Lucas or Maui it doesn’t seem as if development is progressing as fast as I would have expected. There are still deer on the main streets. I couldn’t find a place to get bacon and eggs Monday morning, and ended up driving to Tofino.
Maybe I’m passing judgement too early; I’m sure that the influx of people next year will make a huge difference in infrastructure and services. There are several closed businesses, including both traditional industrial suppliers as well as a few restaurants. By next year there will be a new, huge, functioning hotel with cottages, and many more houses. Over the next several years a Jack Nicklaus designed golf course will come on stream as well. If its all a success they’ll have to widen the surf highway.
I was also surpised with the quality of comments over the weekend. They are really going downhill.
We live in interesting times. The dollar is at par. The implications of that are huge. A short month ago we expected increased interest rates. Does anyone forsee those now? What impact will inflation have on real estate values? Will the rising dollar continue? Will that lead to Canadian recession, nationwide, or do we really have a fractured economy? Will the Canadian dollar be devalued, leading to inflation? We’ve heard the arguments that the dollar should trade around 85 cents. What impact does the dollar’s value have on Vancouver real estate?
We often read comments here about how much real estate should cost, and how that should relate to what the average person or family earns. I read an interesting story this morning in the Post about how much you have to make to get to the top of the heap. Apparently $89k per year is enough to get you into the top 5% of all wage earners. The mainstream story is that middle class wage earners are losing ground while the rich get richer. I guess some would conclude that government isn’t doing enough redistribution. However, the story also points out that high income Canadians are paying a growing share of personal income taxes, so its not as if they’re being ignored. I think they’re just responding to the challenge better (which makes some sense – after all, if you own a small business you’ve got more control over how much money you make, while if you work for any business you simply don’t have the same options). It seems clear that 10% of all taxpayers pay more than 50% of all income tax (even the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives doesn’t dispute those numbers), and while some would argue that they should pay more, I don’t think many would argue that the 10% use that many more services. Is there an argument to be made that we’re all over-taxed? That decades of prosperity haven’t really paid for most Canadians? That if an annual wage that’s roughly equivalant to the cost of two pick-ups puts you in the top 5%, then maybe someone isn’t paying attention to opportunity development?
The weekend Post also juxtaposed two different takes on the dollar – Buzz Hargrove and William Watson. Who makes the better impression, and what are the implications?
And now the numbers:
Friday we saw 348 new listings and 140 sales for a sell/list of 40.23%.
Monday we saw 231 new listings and 143 sales for a sell/list of 61.90%.
Today we saw 215 new listings and 168 sales for a sell/list of 78.14%.
Over 90s hit 2,758, which is 24.0% of the total inventory of 11,489.
The Best Real Estate Anywhere! 
Rob – as always, your commentary and numbers are much appreciated.
I am curious. How do people interpret the inventory numbers? Do you, over time, simply consider whether the inventory goes up/down ? Or does the absolute size of the inventory mean something to you? What would a “huge inventory” number be? I assume the current inventory is not especially large.
Just an observation regarding the Downtown market for condos.
I had a brief and passing interest in Patina, I was scared off by the price per sq. ft. but couldn’t help noticing that on Friday night there were about 30 or 40 people preparing to spend the night outside the sales room on Albernie St. in order to secure their spot in the line-up. I thought those days were over.
I dropped into the sales room on Saturday afternoon and they told me that everything under about $780,000 was sold out and the least expensive suites sold fastest. I checked again yesterday and they only have 28 of their original 252(?) suites left and those run in price from $925,000 for 1112 sq.ft. up to $2,750,000 for 1819 sq.ft.
20 of the remaining 28 suites are all over $1,000,000. I’m not sure how to interpret this but it seems to me that the lower end of the market (if you can call it that when it started at $389,000) is where the current strength is.
I wonder how this bodes for the numerous high end towers coming here soon? Selling a couple of hundred suites in one building over one weekend sounds like a strong market to me but I would have bet the more expensive ones would have gone first.
“I was also surpised with the quality of comments over the weekend. They are really going downhill.” – Rob
Yeah, just like the RE market. Keep on with the shill talk, though.
Rob,
Good commentary, in fact the best one I have read in quite awhile-Thanks!
I read the same article in the Post and it made me really think about how people are able to buy real estate in Vancouver when $89K is considered in the top 5%.
I would be interested in seeing what salary the top 5% income earners would be in Vancouver instead of Canada. At $89K I don’t even think one could afford a 1 bedroom apartment in Vancouver. I am always amazed and a little curious how people in Vancouver can afford the things they have in Vancouver.
Ouch, I winced at that comment about the government needing to do more redistribution of wealth. I think that’s probably the problem considering disposable income has barely budged in the last 15 years. In the same period the economy boomed and federal spending almost doubled, so there’s no prize for guessing where all the wealth went.
I usually take the family to Tofino. My last trip there I picked up a book in the villa which touched on the area’s history. The peninsula is called the Esowista, which literally translated means ‘clubbed to death.’ And that’s basically what happened when some natives living in from the coast decided to take over a coastal settlement for themselves.
Also, the tribe in the area — the Nuu-chah-nulth — established their presence by killing some 10,000 members of a neighbouring tribe, even going so far as to hunt down those who fled all the way to the Olympic Peninsula.
It’s a rather interesting history, though not one you’ll find at the dull and achingly politically correct museum in Victoria.
Oh, and as for real estate, I predicted a top in late spring, but was off a couple months because it was July/August. I reckon we will shed at least 20% over the next 18 months.
“On the other hand, if I compare it to Cabo San Lucas or Maui it doesn’t seem as if development is progressing as fast as I would have expected. ”
Why would you expect Ucluelet to develop like those places. It may be pretty there, but, um, have you noticed the climate differences?
Quick comment – enjoyed Rob’s opening commentary and Chip’s input – actually an interesting read – hope to see more of this type of depth of input on the blog. Snick – I agree with your prognastications on RE – but not those of Rob – jmho.
I’m in the top 5% of wage earners according to the story in the Post, and there’s absolutely and utterly no way I can afford to buy any kind of reasonable* place for my family. And it’s been like this for several years.
What does this mean? I just don’t get it. Who ARE these people buying million dollar properties?! Is the top 1% buying 75% of the real estate?
*In which we wouldn’t be tripping over each other in our allotted 200 square feet each, or living half way to Alberta.
Keep on with the shill talk, though.
ooooh! i love it when you talk rough
Seems the inventory is increasing. Am I right on that observation? RE in the Lowermainland just doesn’t make sense and it seems sales are slowing. Some logic is setting in.
Does anyone know the ins and outs for buying property in the U.S.?
Jay,
I visited a couple of open houses just over the border on the weekend. Amazing value compared to Vancouver now but it would be a weekend house without the proper residency docs. I also noticed the green fees are much cheaper than Canada (almost 3X lower in the US).
Doubter
the problem is – it is the top 1% from everywhere is buying stuff here!
From Alberta, out East, overseas.
Rob- nice commentary.
You have to excuse the excitable bear posters- they have been seeing the carnage in the US and can almost taste it starting here.
Here are the numbers for the 10 largest US cities…just the facts.
1)July yoy prices…4.5% drop.
2)The rate of price drop is accellerating.
3)There is 10 months of outstanding inventory in the US.
Remember the credit crunch happened in AUGUST…so do you think the numbers will be better or worse for August?
Doubter,
Take the top 5% of income declared wage earners just for Vancouver and I am sure you would find yourself in the 60-70% range. My take is current home owners are using their new found equity as leverage, new home buyers are over extending themselves (I am sure over extension differs amongst people), and new foreign money is entering the country. It would indeed be interesting to see the actual break-down by % of the current buyers in today’s market.
VHB:
I’m just comparing Ucluelet with other places that I’ve seen undergo development. I think that if you visited Ucluelet you’d have a hard time not making the same comparisions. Its a restricted land base (much more so than Maui or Cabo) http://www.longbeachmaps.com/ukeeside.html#anchor817071
but there is a lot of development, and there were lots of signs of development last year as well. I think the sales are going fast. What’s lagging is the business and the hard structures (although there is a lot of construction going on).
Not much land to go around, but that means a high percentage is waterfront, and most has stunning views. And an awful lot of it has “For Sale” signs on it. Some is sub-divided, some is bare land strata. Some is hotel development with fractured ownership. I think you can still probably get w/f (just barely) for under a million, and can easily pay $3 million.
It may be a moot point by next year. Ucluelet the cool may be long gone and Whistlerized (again, not a lot of space, so it won’t take much). If not, so much the better. You can’t stop progress, but…
Ucluelet is a bit out there and it’s too bad people are developing it. Anything for the mighty $. It was nice to go through there and get away from people and yuppies etc. Now the people we try to get away from will be up there en mass. Great. 😦
According to msn.com seattle and portland were two of only five cities to still see price gains in real estate
Thanks Rob for the numbers.
Gald you had a good time in Ucluelet. Did you buy any property there?
Geezer,
What do you think is a reasonable price for a suite in that tower you were looking at?
$400k? $500k? $600K? $900K?
What agents say is your home is what somebodies willing to pay for it.
My meager $67k job will only let me borrow $210k 😦
Hmmm, I with the prices you say their asking now what the hell are rents going to be like. Theres no way a local working two jobs will be able to make the rents.
Things will become clearer in the next 2-3 months as the Christmas retail season arrives and the mood of the US consumer is revealed. It’ll probably be a good indicator of the impact the subprime fiasco and housing slump is having. If it ends up being a really weak, look for interests rates in the US to fall further and Canada possibly following suit (and possibly a US recession). If reasonably strong, I can see rates holding steady or even possibly rising early in the new year. While manufacturers are hurting in central Canada, I think the BOC will continue to fight inflation and the government will try to introduce policy to encourage productivity improvements during this quirky period of currency parity.
Relating to local housing, I seriously think the market is starting to lose steam. I don’t see rate cuts being able to save it since the economic outlook would have to be pretty bleak for rate cuts to occur. And I can’t see people continuing to flock to RE with weak general confidence. Otherwise, with current prices and current or rising rates, I think we’re just too tapped to keep on going. But as I’ve said in the past, I can’t see a dramatic drop unless there’s a trigger event; though it could be anything really.
Mind I should say theres no breaking even with 25% down. Eh Rob..
Original Jay,
Rob posted that the rich are getting richer and the Middle class and poor are being left in the dust.
Like whats happening in China. The people are willing to borrow as much as they can to throw into the market ( either stock or RE). So high is the desperation to become rich is that it’s almost suicidal!!!
Having read more and more about the problems in the US (and global) economy, I’m starting to feel like Vancouver RE is a bit of a red herring. I think the next 5-10 years are going to bring a lot of pain to a lot of people and have started saving rather than spending, and that includes spending on RE (which I was priced out of anyway hah).
I feel like one of those Y2K nuts to some degree, but I’m putting my money where my mouth is, too: I cashed out my mutual funds and am moving to 4.x% GIC’s from ING direct.
(Now watch as the stock market goes on another bull run or inflation makes my dollars worthless…)
But I’m hoping to offset inflation risk by putting new savings / monthly contributions into commodities, energy, gold, etc. which I’m hesitant to do since they have been on a tear of late too, but to my mind there’s going to either be severe recession or severe inflation, and am trying to hedge my bets.
Anyone else starting to get all tinfoil-hat-survivalist, or is it just me?
Thanks Rob for the numbers. I read every post, but almost never comment and I have never said thanks.
The decline will spread … but Canada and New Zealand (or any resource based countries) won’t feel the pain until a bit late in the game …. because we are kind of the 3rd tier market … we get hot later and we also get cold later too…. and when the decline is finally clear and unstoppable/deniable, the huge carry trade reversal will be a real interesting event to watch…. as it can trigger so many downward pressuring events. And if it’s foreign money that keeps Canada RE, then it’s also the withdrawal of foreign money that will bring down Canada RE.
Good post Rob
I also found that Post article very interesting. It reminded me of a book I got for Christmas, “Why we want you to be Rich” by Trump and Kiyosaki. The book was ok, but the key message struck me and is confirmed by the post article. The message is that with the way things are going the middle class is being squeezed out and are moving to India. Our society is moving quickly to a Rich and Poor environment. This is also backed up by the many posters on this blog who pray for 40% RE price drops so they can have what the Rich or extremely mortgaged people have.
They say that many of the middle class type jobs are moving to India, so if you want to be middle class then you should move to India. So the only other choice is to be rich or poor in America. The N.Post article seems to be confirming this type of societal change.
I think the death of the middle class is a disaster for our society and I will vote for anyone who will try to stop this from happening, but you have to deal with reality and move on. Thats why I have been so into investing lately and I have made a good amount of money in RE in the last 4 years.
Like last year I think the fall will be really slow for RE until Jan/Feb 2008. Then we will see if it picks up again like last year. Thats why I will be looking into new investments for the short term.
On a side note, if your looking for a high reward investment, and you have some cash and alot of balls, then I would suggest purchasing a business from a Baby Boomer. There will be hordes of baby boomers looking to cash out for their retirement and many of their kids aren’t interested in there business. There will be lots of healthy high income businesses for sale to people who have the guts to be entrepreneurs. Plus its less risky than starting your own.
I’m sure Rob would agree owning a business can be much more lucrative than being an employee.
Who wants to live in a society polarized betwen rich and poor, without a middle class? One could argue that middle class is a transitional state comprised of those (few…the 89K plus crowd) on their way up and those on their way down (either individually over time or intragenerationally). But if you believe it is a class with substance, then it should be protected and nourished. It is a place of ideological compromise that holds both vulnerability and aspiration. Don’t let income-redistributive policies give you pause…it created the country that gave you the opportunity to be rich if you want to, or useful and helpful if money isn’t the only thing on your mind.
abc,
you said “Or does the absolute size of the inventory mean something…”
Rising inventory, especially at this time of year, is indicative of the start of a panic to get out with these high prices before 2007 closes out. I wish them luck.
new Olympic venue:
” extreme mortgaging”
motto: deep, deeper and dead
http://tinyurl.com/2x5g64
David Dodge still has concerns about 35+ year mortgages….
Real estate in Vancouver will not go down as long as police does not crack down on all illegal grow ups in Vancouver. One in three houses seems to be used for grow up according to most pessimistic estimations. All money then is recycled back into real estate, so it becomes a self-fulfilling business.
When people get busted they are bailed out very rapidly thanks to the money friendly attitude of BC goverment. Real estate in BC will not go down as long as it has almost monopoly in home grow ups (together with Seattle to some extent – harsher penalty in US compared to very mild attitute in BC). So I wont be counting on RE coming down soon in BC.
David Dodge’s newest: High dollar doing nothing to control inflation.
Miami selling at depression prices ALREADY
So I wont be counting on RE coming down soon in BC.
what you been smoking?
Albatros,
BC Hydro reveals high electricity usage to the RCMP now. They have been cracking down on all the grow ops because of this. It will probably take awhile to get rid of them all. The fire dept. works with them also and the program is called grow busters.
“I think the death of the middle class is a disaster for our society and I will vote for anyone who will try to stop this from happening”
This problem started when people and companies became addicted to cheap goods and services. Consumers wanted lower prices and companies wanted greater profits, so many jobs were transferred overseas. It’s kind of hard to fix that with a vote.
mind blowing arguments are issues from the decent hearts,but grand father said…..”emotions can not change reality”.grow up buster can stop the grow ups,but who is going to stop these people,who intended to join us later despite high cost of living,and they have nothing to do with inflation.what they want is a city that is beutiful and best liveable in this world,cost does not matter to them.here they are like this ladies and gentle mens please welcome “population grow ups”………
Population Projections
Vancouver////Greater Vancouver
2007-628,286- 2007- 2,255,373
2008-636,933- 2008- 2,290,568
2009-644,417- 2009- 2,325,817
2010-650,503- 2010 -2,361,833
2011-655,926 -2011- 2,397,466
2012-661,574-2012- 2,434,072
2013-667,321-2013- 2,470,477
2014-673,115-2014 -2,506,254
2015-678,537 -2015 -2,541,522
2016-683,686 -2016- 2,576,271
2017-688,723 -2017 -2,610,677
2018-693,689 -2018- 2,644,854
2019-698,477 -2019 -2,678,591
2020-703,170 -2020 -2,711,859
2021-707,656-2021- 2,744,696
2022-712,010-2022- 2,776,820
2023-716,114 -2023- 2,808,217
2024-719,934- 2024- 2,838,714
2025-723,450 -2025- 2,868,360
2026-726,702 -2026- 2,897,192
2027-729,969 -2027 -2,925,338
2028-733,038 -2028- 2,952,861
2029-736,183- 2029- 2,979,681
2030-739,160 -2030 -3,005,697
2031-741,930 -2031- 3,030,887
2032-744,505- 2032 -3,055,097
2033-746,846 -2033- 3,078,410
2034-748,972-2034 -3,100,727
2035-750,871 -2035 -3,122,038
2036-752,591 -2036 -3,142,493
difference in 3 decades
1,24,305////////////8,87,120
that is just a projection,but statistic shows that in first quarter of 2007 we got more than 14,000 new faces in Vancouver those are greater than the first figure projected for 2007.
>Albatros wrote
>One in three houses seems to be used for grow
>up according to most pessimistic estimations
Albatros, are you smoking alot of the products from these grow ops?
One in three houses in Vancouver are used for grow ops? You’re saying that of 10 houses you randomly enter in Vancouver, 3 to 4 of the houses are grow ops?
Gadwin
Albatros might be correct or close..
17,000 grow ops in BC (back in 2005)
http://www.readersdigest.ca/mag/2005/05/pot.html
How many homes in BC??
BCHydro is helping with providing electricity usage, but what about:
Meter bypassing (eg. BCHydro can not tell exactly which house it is)
Generators (use gas instead of electricity)
Get rid of grow ops and see how fast housing prices come down =)
They should fine/jail them more….
“BC Hydro reveals high electricity usage to the RCMP now.”
Doesn’t mean squat. Most operations now skirt the meter.
“They have been cracking down on all the grow ops because of this.”
Crack down? You’re kidding, right?
My opinion is and has always been that house prices are unsustainable. It’s very much like the bad old days of clearcutting and over-fishing. A few people were warning that you can’t just keep cutting down the forests and killing all the fish. Their concerns were pooh-poohed. Then one day there weren’t any fish. And all the good trees were gone. And everyone woke up to the fact that the days of raping the earth were over.
Similarly, right now, all the people with vested interests in selling high-priced properties, and seeing massive price appreciation keep saying that everything’s cool, there are lots of rich people to ensure prices will rise forever. One day the music is going to stop. It’s already stopped in the USA. In Spain. It’s stopping in Britain. It’s just a matter of time before it happens here.
One day the music is going to stop.
the music stopped Aug 16 2007 when credit started to dry up.
it will take a bit to see the larger implications but I’m calling this: The Great Unravelling
New Investor Rob:
Do you know of any good web sites for people interested in buying a business?
Albatros:
Police can only arrest the grow-op offenders, it’s the judges that need to hand them a harsh sentence.
“On the other hand, if I compare it to Cabo San Lucas or Maui it doesn’t seem as if development is progressing as fast as I would have expected. ”
“I’m just comparing Ucluelet with other places that I’ve seen undergo development. I think that if you visited Ucluelet you’d have a hard time not making the same comparisions.”
——-
Stop Comparing.
Ucluelet (and all BC for that matter) is “No Jack Kennedy“.
P.S – as to the connection between RE prices and the illusion of “comparability” – I guess you can figure this one alone… 😉
Cheers.
Back to my hole.
jeff
September 25th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
I cashed out my mutual funds and am moving to 4.x% GIC’s from ING direct.
Jeff,
If things unfold in Vancouver like the US, you will look like a genius.
Dodge warns of inflated housing market- Points to easy credit as culprit in ‘facilitating a rise in the price of houses that is really not warranted’
http://tinyurl.com/2dwrov
Dodge poised to loonie gaze – To gauge effect of dollar’s rise on setting rate
http://tinyurl.com/346c62
Canada Dollar Falls on Speculation Central Bank to Stay on Hold
http://tinyurl.com/2vheo9
Tembec shutting BC mills
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/260519
Dodge: Central Banks kept interest rates too low
http://tinyurl.com/3cam5d
Not only my estimation of grow ups is very close t0 reality ( can provide random facts) but the system feeds itself as the cash is recycled back in real estate , it is called money laundering – this business is huge in BC with very deep implications. As to BC hydro reporting high energy consumption it is a complete joke. They are happy to sell more electricity. But grow ups have become much more sophisticated than most of you think as they generate more and more money, their network is expanded and includes many police officers as well as unbeleiveble high and sophisticated methods to keep the basements running at full capacity. It is a very serious business without much willingness from BC goverment to crack down on it despite all the goverment noise destined for public consumption the beast keep feeding herself in a virtous cycle more than ever. For how long, I dont know, but till then forget about RE correction in BC.
‘facilitating a rise in the price of houses that is really not warranted’ – David Dodge
Yeah, like no kidding…
Sorry to take you off topic but I have a question.
I’d like to know if realtors can take a product they are selling off market by saying it’s sold. Not just saying it, but actually listing it as sold on PCS (the private client services that I get from my realtor where I see what’s listed and what’s sold, how many days on market etc.)
I have noticed a few houses on the market for months, with almost no interest at opens etc., and then suddenly sold. Then when I go by a month or two later no one has moved in. What’s up with that?
Albatros:
Please expand. I’m not as knowledgeable as you, but here’s what I don’t get:
-How do the owners mortgage the properties, or do they pay all cash?
– If mortgaged, how do they insure the property if its used as a grow op?
-If not mortgaged how do they get the purchase price into the hands of the original seller?
-How do they get the money back out? If they’re laundering money doesn’t that mean they put dirty money into some sort of semi-legit business with the idea that they’ll get the money out somehow with a patina of legitimacy?
Where would I find out the peak inventory numbers for Vancouver for say the last 5 years. I see by Rob’s numbers that right now we are hovering around the mid 11k, got as high as 12k not too long ago. I was wondering what was the highest it hit? What was the lowest?
vomitingdog.
Im very curious about your question as well. I was watching 4 properties that were on the market for over 1 year without much activity. Then, last month when we had the big drop in inventory, all 4 properties were listed as “sold” all in the same week? I know for a fact that one of them did not actually sell because I am in the same building and it is still sitting empty. Can you explain this Rob?
I don’t buy the grow-ops-are-keeping-the-market-high-arguement. Yakima Washington is the end of the Mexican/Californian cocaine pipeline and it’s not like RE values there are skyrocketing.
Montreal, where I’m from, is home to more mafia per square foot than any city in Canada… lots of lucrative tax-free profits and the police and city are in on it too but house prices there are more related to other market conditions and politics than drugs and prostitution. Every city has a huge sector of its economy coming from drugs. I don’t buy it.
Anonymous:
“listed” how? where?
“listed” on realtor’s websites with a big red “sold” banner across it.
Too bad we can’t legalize marijuana. bye bye big growop profits
RE : Grow Ops
There are obviously lots of grow ups around BC (1 in 3 I doubt though). Almost all grow ops are rentals. If the house is owned and busted it will be seized under the proceeds of crime law. Very few would risk a 600k house to grow 100k of weed per year.
The proceeds of grow ops are laundered through cash businesses such as bars, restaurants, vending machines, hot dog stands, etc. which are owned by organized crime.
The BC government has no intention of shutting down the multi billion dollar industry.
Grow busters only dismantles the grow ops and rarely even lay charges because it ties up all the resources in court with few convictions and no jail terms. The police and grow busters are an inconvencience to the grow ops.
The only real connection grow ops have to real estate is the money that is fueled into the economy before and after laundering. It also provides nice rental income on some old run down old houses.
“Almost all grow ops are rentals. If the house is owned and busted it will be seized under the proceeds of crime law. Very few would risk a 600k house to grow 100k of weed per year.”
No. Most are owned, and “rented” to a worker who manages the crop. The seizure law is recent and very, very few have been forfeited. And as for 100k a year, it’s more like 15-25k a month.
To Rob’s question, some are mortgaged and there are go-to brokers for this. This guy is just the tip of the iceberg (http://tinyurl.com/3ytg4c). He was linked to some 100 grow-ops, which he facilitated by drawing up fraudulent mortgage applications.
Others are cash deals, and believe me, no questions are asked. I know of one guy who is here as a refugee and he owns five homes outright, all paid in cash.
I’ve said this before but people have no idea how big the underground economy is here.
“No. Most are owned, and “rented” to a worker who manages the crop.”
If anyone associated with crime owns a busted grow house they have to prove the house is paid for with clean money in order to get the house back. Years of fighting in court even if they can prove it. Why bother when you can rent, walk away and start up a new one within days. If you own a house, rent it to a legitimate renter and grow in someone else’s house. The “hired worker” can snitch as well. Makes no sense to own and grow in it.
This is well known withing law enforcement and why they have so much frustration and little power to reduce grow op’s. If grow ops were owned it would be easy to shut them down by seizing the houses.
“And as for 100k a year, it’s more like 15-25k a month.”
I am sure some large scale operations have done that, but the vast majority of grow HOUSES net about 100K. The price of BC bud has dropped significantly since the border tightened after Sep 11th. The big money is now made getting it across the border.
News Flash, interesting commentary on grows. Too bad the criminals don’t think ‘logically’ like you do. I’m wondering where you get your facts from…
Why can’t grow ops own houses? With the new zero-down mortgages, or low-income-documentation mortgages, you’re basically renting money from the bank. Bank owns the place, you just pay monthly fees. If busted, you didn’t have any skin in the deal anyhow. No need to worry about a landlord checking in on his property this way!
V-Dog/Anonymous:
Send me MLS numbers and I’ll look into it for you.
Chip:
Had to be tough for Ficom to find these guys, eh? It has happened before (crooked mortgage broker/crooked Realtor) but it seems like a mug’s game to me. Note that this guy is accused of a) falsifying employment records for his clients and b) defrauding lenders.
I guess my point is that buying a house with dirty money requires that someone in the lending or conveyancing process turn a blind eye to an awful lot. There is a huge paper trail. Very easy to see why the grow op operator with dirty money to hide would do it. Tough to see why any intelligent Realtor, notary, lawyer or mortgage broker would do it. Their exposure is huge. They, unlike the grower, keep extensive records and leave an extensive paper trail. Lots of the documents they execute leave their hands or get copied. Most of the grow op conspiracy theories neglect to explain that aspect.
Newsflash:
My only comment on “the vast majority” of grow ops netting $100k/yr is that the ones I’ve busted were unlikley to net anywhere near that – at least the groweers themselves never had that kind of money (except possibly for one very clever old guy who I never actually caught… 🙂 )
Hey Rob, you probably have some visibility into this.. can you extrapolate how much you think, % wise, the lower mainland rental market is grow op occupied?
News Flash, I believe a big way to launder money is pay construction workers under the table.
These guys work for cash in a big big way, and think how much RE is worth after 100K of upgrades, especially in a market that’s moving upwards.
Not only are you probably getting MORE on your dirty dollar back, you’re also getting a discount on worker wages by not having to pay taxes.
Criminals are used to getting less than 1$ for ever 1$ they launder .. I believe the construction worker route can work out to be more.
we are in a sad state indeed if illegality is what is holding up our RE market.
this has got to be a sign of a top in the market
got weed?
and while you are rolling that doobie in a $100 bill here’s a little munchie:
http://tinyurl.com/yw243n
quote Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in August and prices plunged by the most since 1970, pointing to a worsening housing recession that spells more cutbacks in construction.
Conversation has gone to pot. I couldn’t resist.
Read long time ago that the preferred method was rental homes with out of town or out of country landlords.
http://tinyurl.com/ywr2r8
National Post story with links to Toronto market and Calgary market…..
Vancouver’s big squeeze: Unreal real estate
http://tinyurl.com/2m6lnn
Blueskies,
You have good taste, we are both posting the exact same article at the exact same time.
U.S. August new home sales drop 8.3% (lowest level in seven years) Market was expecting 825,000 but the actual came in at 795,000. Last time sales were this low was June 2000.
coco
redundancy is good
redundancy is good
Massive fire New West condo complex
http://tinyurl.com/396edk
Anyone familiar with this complex? How many of the units were sold? Fire of this magnitude with sprinkler system turned off, just after the security guards when home, a tad strange?
s/b just after the security guards went home, not when home. Need more coffee.
I thought building codes include regulations re: fire-retardant materials etc. It looks to me like these new condos are made of matches…
http://tinyurl.com/2q8sje
the central bank has injected almost $1-billion into the market.
the market is functioning.
overnight market is now well on its way back to normal operations in Canada,
ps: please, no whistling near the graveyard
coco:
Get a bit more coffee! My understanding is that this is a project under construction. Sprinklers weren’t “turned off”; they weren’t yet activated. Its quite possible that the water hadn’t even been hooked up yet.
Mike:
We run into occassional grow ops for sale. Its one way to deal with the market (buy a grow op, rehab it, re-sell), but its a lot of work, permits, inspections, etc. Our management business doesn’t have huge exposure because we’re careful. I think the number of grow ops is grossly over-estimated, mind you.
This doesn’t sound good:
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=3f92dc01-2dce-41a1-8035-358121a6725a&k=63868
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=c6b3d8c0-f55a-455c-8422-8f4fdbda959d&k=42251
But Canada’s different, right?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/marijuana/grow_operations.html
$1k a plant
RCMP seizes 6855 Marijuana Plants in Grow-Op Bust
http://www.newsrightnow.org/articles/833/1/982/RCMP-seizes-6855-Marijuana-Plants-in-Grow-Op-Bust/Page1.html
So, approx $6.8Million
7000 plants, Approx, $7Million
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article.jsp?content=20070924_161030_372
Seems pretty lucrative to me. =)
Blueskies / coco:
Thanks for the article. If I didn’t know better, I would think it was written about my wife and I.
It doesn’t help me buy a house, but I feel a little better knowing that I’m not the only one getting squeezed in this insanity and left scratching my head.
Thanks Rob. The numbers are:
V661265 and its attached unit V661247.
Didn’t sell for months. First one sold, then the other for a substantial amount more.
Garbage – “Seems pretty lucrative to me.”
These numbers grossly over-estimate the value of the product to the grower, since they are usually determined and reported by the police as the street value of the seized dope. For instance, a pound of dope that is broken up into dime bags and sold on the street may be worth X dollars, but the value to the grower would be a much smaller fraction of that, I would think. I’m not saying its not lucrative for the grower, just that it may not be significant enough to provide widespread upward pressure on the RE market.
“Sprinklers weren’t “turned off”; they weren’t yet activated. Its quite possible that the water hadn’t even been hooked up yet.” Correct, sprinklers are not charged until occupancy permit is granted. One of the last things activated is the fire protection system, it is then tested by Fire Dept and City and occupancy permit is issued.
Fozzie,
A lot of professionals who earn good coin are in the same boat. They do not wish to be mortgaged to the hilt or be married to their house with payments so high that they can’t afford to do anything else in life.
I overheard some pretty sad conversations. One at the ATM were a young couple were shocked at their $600.00 bank balance and the wife was stating they still had to make the mortgage payment and didn’t have enough for it.
Another at a coffee shop, a gal was chatting to the clerk that if they want to go out and do something as a family, they have to save up for three months first, because of the high cost of housing and their mortgage payments. That it was a real treat for her to have a special coffee once every few months.
From a friend that works at the Four Seasons.
A regular customer of the restaurant for years, all of a sudden completely disappeared. A staff member noticed him in the food fair and talked to him. He bought a house.
One can only wait for the results of the investigation on the New West condo complex fire.
Thanks for the sprinkler lesson.
Manitoba boasts soaring rate of international immigration — giving it the highest annual immigration rate among all provinces.
http://tinyurl.com/25rg78
*Now, who said immigration was falling here and noone believed them?
Well, when people see global asset inflation, many of them are naively thinking it’s just inflation. Everyone gets it and people get used to it. Unfortunately it’s not quite that simple. So North America is hit, EU (and UK) is actually worse (most people don’t know/understand it, but you just look at how much money/liquidity ECB is pumping into the market). And this begs the next question, when is Asia? If Asia gets it too, the chain reaction spirals fast.
Get your cash ready. The only way to stop this is for central banks to step in and use tax payers’ money to save the market. And the question is, even if they do, how long can they keep doing it without creating a massive public dispute? Especially when a growing number of middle class is priced out from this baseless/pointless inflation. I know more of my parents’ friends have sold their houses in Vancouver just the last couple of months. The timing do seem very good though.
Oh, that’s right, Canada will be fine. And Vancouver is different. Better yet, Whistler, Tofino, Sunshine coast, …. are all just too good to be left alone. Let’s not wait and buy properties before they get even more less affordable.
Rob, grow ops are all over. Probably more than you think.
Original Josh:
Reminds me of a scene from the movie Traffic (at least I think it was Traffic). Someone says “The street value was such and such” and the dealer says “Man, I’d like to know where that street is!”
Strataman:
I heard on the news today that they were only 2 days away from activating the sprinklers. I saw a complex like that burn up in Nashville once. Completely framed, but not roofed, and the what’s crazier, we were allowed to frame it before roads and fire hydrants were in. Snowy night, muddy roads, the fire department couldn’t get close enough, so they sat back with all of us and watched the flames jump the top of the firewalls and burn the place to the ground. Something to see.
Rob: yes, that’s a great line 🙂
And, thanks to CKNW for providing such an on-topic news story, as follows:
“Burnaby RCMP went to serve an arrest warrant earlier this week, and not only did they get their suspect, they uncovered a whole lot more.
While picking up their suspect at a home in the 38-hunrded block of Nithsdale Street, the officers noted the strong, pungent odor of marijuana.
After getting another warrant, the RCMP seized 432 pot plants, which translates into approximately a quarter of a million joints.
The power had also been tampered with in the home.”
I see they are now reporting their busts in terms of number of possible joints that could be rolled, hahaha. Too funny… Maybe they should report the number of possible stoners that could be watching bad TV… or number of potential kilograms of Cheetoh’s that could be consumed, LOL!
Blue skies,
Nice effort onthe links to the post.
Denial is a tough word to come to terms with.
Denial and Economic suicide go hand in hand.
There seems to be a lot more inventory in the Fraser Valley as of today.
strataman,
Nashville, been there, good food, good music, nice southern hospitality.
Nashville, been there, woman got mugged for her rings at gun point at a wedding reception in the public bathroom at our nice 4 star hotel. Grandfather type starts talking to me at the mall tells me he is there for a convention. I ask what convention? He says Grand Masters. I’m innocently thinking grand masters? Chess? He says, Grand Masters of the White Knights. (otherwise known as the KKK)
Had a great vacation despite the weird incidents.
What was $600k a few months ago is now $295k.
In an effort to help U.S. home buyers better understand today’s home financing options, Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., will enlist more than 7,000 home loan consultants to visit residential open houses across the country over the next six weeks to provide an array of mortgage financing options for customers.
(must be looking for new customers with good credit to offset the bad ones they have)
Hi all,
I am sure many are curious as to the position of the current real estate market for Greater Vancouver regions, especially considering the time of year we are now currently in. I know I am as I continue to ponder whether to sell current properties or to buy new ones before the upcoming slow selling holiday season and before the peak selling spring season. I want to ask a generalized question to everyone on what state the RE market is in but I can just see the type of responses I would get so I won’t.
To help me determine the state of the market I try to rely on a few key pieces of market data. Unfortunately, two of the key pieces of market data (DOM and listing history) are closely protected by the BCREA. However much I expect to listen to the same old line from a Realtor that this information is kept private for the protection of the owner I still disagree as this information if made readily available to the public would in fact create an equal negotiation platform. Hmm-I wonder why it is only available to Realtors…
Rob, as a Realtor, you have access to this information, are you able to update on the state of DOM and on average what you are seeing as far as how many 90 day listing cycles the average SFD is going through for the GVM? I am particulary interested in North Van, Tri- Cities, Burnaby. Perhaps, a phone call/email to the BCREA?
Many thanks
spencer, if you want DOM, just sign up on a Realtor’s (TM) Virtual Office Website (VOW) (there’s lots of them, just Google it). You won’t get listing history though.
Annon said:
“And this begs the next question, when is Asia? If Asia gets it too, the chain reaction spirals fast.”
Asia already has it — it started in Japan a looooong time ago. And it’s already been going on in China for some time now — how can that be you ask given that they are regularly jacking up interest rates? Well they have been running the presses night and day to maintain the USD exchange rate. All of their citizens know it and are spending the local currency as fast as it comes into their hands on “hard assets” because they recognize the inherent inflation/devaluation going on. Their government is trying to stop this by jacking up rates but nothing’s gonna change until they drop the currency peg.
If corporates are unable to fund their projects, this can get serious. This means job losses. And those pension funds …. let’s just say it’s sad. No pension funds should ever even be considered for the ABCP type of investments. I believe now the problems are more obvious and smarter cheerleaders are less bold in stating that Canada is in such a fundamentally sound economy. With stocks this high, I told all my friends and family to reduce risk rather than increase risk. Yes, the storm is coming and the central banks might be able to pull some tricks. But if they fail, I have much less to worry about.
http://tinyurl.com/2lbyl9
Interesting comments.
We sold our house recently in Victoria. The real estate agent there said that it is a myth that the market is being driven by Albertans, foreign money, etc. He said that the vast majority of buyers are locals who are either first time buyers or people moving up to bigger houses.
As far as how first time buyers can afford these prices? Well, the couple who paid almost $450k for our little (very little) house had one and a half incomes that included a teacher and her husband doing his masters in medical science. They just got her parents to cosign the loan. We also had friends in Victoria who were in the same boat and got a mortgage broker to arrange a $400k mortgage with a cosign…and another set of friends who had almost no income and also got a mortgage broker to pre-approve them almost $350k through Van City.
So a couple of things to note. One, don’t blame Albertans and foreigners for the housing bubble. Its mostly home grown. And two, we may not have exactly have a subprime market but from what I can see we have a lot of young folks with limited income who have closed their eyes and jumped into this market. If we have a downturn, well I just hope these people (and their parents) don’t lose it all.
I don’t know where you guys get your math from, but $1k/plant is actully an underestimate, and nowhere near ‘street value’. Do the math, 16oz in a lb, 28g in an oz, that’s 448g, or $4480. Most good weed will go for $2500/lb wholesale, 10-20lbs at a time. Most good growers can get 1lb/plant on an 8 week cycle.
Your $600k house pays for itself with 100 plants on an 8 week rotation in 1 year.
Very lucrative indeed.
Enough of the marauana please. It’s a very weak argument. Those that aren’t earning enough and struggling always got to find some absurd reason so that they can live with themselvs.
Get a trade or get educated or become an RE Agent.
BTW ANNON great work listing that Miami Link here!!! I know for sure that local developers are whatching. If Nat Bosa is Canadian and now resides in Texas I think!?! then I am sure the big shots are whatching!!!
Bigshots are whatching and preparing, I mean.
It may be 2009 before lumber, housing recover
(states in article – I’m surprised that more Canadian production has not shut down at this point.)
http://tinyurl.com/yrxe5z
Nothing but blue skies for BC real estate
http://tinyurl.com/2447uz
Higher prices, slower sales forecast in B.C. homes market
http://tinyurl.com/2nxxcs
Canadian dollar back on par today.
Inflation starting to rise in the U.S. because of lower interest rates. It is hoovering in the guide lines for now, but they are watching it.
coco,
I believe higher prices and slower sales means the lower end of the market is dying. I’m seeing a lot of cheap condos that have been sitting for months.
Marko,
A lot of young people buying homes have never lived through a recession. They think prosperity will go on forever. Buy it now on credit, pay for it later attitude. They think they will always have a job, the economy will always be good and house prices will continue to go up forever.
Those of us who have lived through recessions think differently.
How many RE agents are trying to unload their own personal holdings?
This would be a good indication of the true underlying sentiment.
Priced Out,
I think people who live in Vancouver are watching one kind of real estate market and people who live in the Fraser Valley are watching another real estate market this month, which includes inventory rising and price reductions.
I guess we will wait until the report comes out next month to see what is happening.
from the highly optimistic Province article:
It’s all down to a vibrant, diversified economy, the real-estate company said.
which has to hold for another 40 years to cover a mortgage of that magnitude
That, in turn, has created a very solid job market that continues to draw people west and they all need somewhere to live, the company said.
assuming all newcomers are potential homeowners and won’t rent for a couple of years while they find their bearings…..
disingenuous claptrap… hardly worth the paper it’s printed on…….
BOC injected another 685 million into the system today, on top of yesterdays 985 million.
Oil hits $83.15 – Canadian dollar rose because of it.
I link the links you post Coco… keep them coming.
http://tinyurl.com/yrnc3v
your Globe and Mail Pot Report
buy now and stay stoned forever 🙂
Subprime woes cut CIBC World Markets outlook
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/261376
***One should not forget, Canadian banks will be hit with subprime write-down or write-offs next quarter.
Thanks, Jojuchst
Spencer:
I think DOM isn’t public info because of privacy legisaltion concerns. I can argue that until the cows come home, and you can counter that its because BCREA wants to control the access so that Realtors benefit, but…CREA doesn’t control the info, any Realtor can release it based on their own evaluation of the agency relationship, and we already circulate, through various avenues, aggregate DOMs.
I provide free info, but the downside of that is that it is on the bottom of my priority list. Some people assume that I run the blog to generate business. That’s not really accurate. The blog can generate business, but not enough to make it worth spending a lot of time on.
It points to the real problem: supplying any information costs someone something. Supplying DOM info may well have benefits for one party, but a different party has to a) collect and supply it and b) not run afoul of privacy legislation. The organized real estate industry has found a way to supply DOM info (plus lots of other info) on a cost effective basis that does not run afoul of privacy legislation. The interface is a Realtor.
I can’t do a lot better, except to say that remuneration for a Realtor is completely negotiable. You could negotiate a flat fee to access the info. You might not like the fee, but you would get the access. When I say you might not like the fee, my point is that I, like you, would like that info. I have access to it already, but I have to actually collect it. I don’t have enough time in the day, and there isn’t enough money involved for me to carve out the time. Pay me enough to hire more staff to do it and I’ll supply you the info, without many other obligations. But, you’ll have to pay the fare. Nothing’s free, whether to me, CREA, the Board or you. People (my staff, board staff, CREA staff) who do the work require pay.
If you’d like to chase this down more, contact me directly and we can see if we can fix it.
coco,
Have you found a way to turn all this information into making money?
no offence Rob, but if you have time for huge posts….. please post the numbers already
anonymous,
Yes.
Greenspan speaks in UK, puts odds of U.S. recession less than 50/50. Hmmm….not to long ago it was one in three.
I don’t think publishing DOM is a matter of somebody has to flip the bill. If you take this argument to the extreme then why wouldn’t BCREA just publish a picture of the house and the agent’s phone number? All the rest of the info, address, price, sq footage, etc, can be had by the public if they jsut pick up the phone and call.
BCREA don’t do this is because agents will be inundated with calls all day and night. So they publish more info….. but they decide to draw the line when they get to certain key information.
The question is why? Why are certain key info excluded?
I believe it’s not so much because it cost money to collect it, taking pictures would certainly costs more but they are free, it’s not so much an issue of privacy, but because they want to maintain their bit worthiness so they can brag about how they deserve what they get paid.
The way I see it an agent’s only worth this day and age is in the negotiation so that the buyer and seller don’t bring to the table their emotion period.
the numbers mustn’t be all that bullish??
Why fret about real estate when the Amero is on the horizon?
Subprime lending to trigger world’s worst financial crisis since 1929
http://tinyurl.com/3d6qyg
Taken from: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/09/global-credit-crisis-weekly-wrap-up.html
————————–
Current Conditions Summary
* Public spending is out of control in the US and UK.
* Banana Republic charges are being leveled at the US and UK.
* Runs on the bank occurred in the US and UK.
* The Fed is accepting mortgages as collateral in the US for the first time.
* Foreclosures are at all time high in the US.
* The US dollar is at all time lows.
* Japan is still struggling with deflation.
* Two failed banks in Germany were bailed out by the ECB.
* There are US Congressional threats of tariffs against China.
* There is a proposal to freeze short term commercial paper for up to 7 years in Canada.
* Housing bubbles in the US, Spain, and Australia are deflating.
* Housing bubble in Canada is still inflating.
* China refuses to float the RMB and sterilize US dollars flooding in. That in turn is fueling Chinese inflation.
* Price controls that can’t possibly work were implemented in China in response to Chinese aforementioned Chinese inflation.
* Commodity prices are soaring.
* Oil is at record high prices.
* A Massive carry trade in Japan is fueling a plethora of asset bubbles around the globe.
* $500 Trillion in derivatives are floating around dwarfing the size of the global economy.
* The global credit bubble dwarfs by orders of magnitude the credit bubble preceding the great depression.
Other than the above, the global economy seem pretty normal and rather well balanced. It’s a tribute to just how well central bankers have done their jobs.
———————————–
annon,
I was being cheeky.
Oh, another observation worth mentioning. There are a few equity heavy mutual funds are valued noticeably lower even though both US and Canada stocks are currently back to their historical highs. One such example is: http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/QuickTakes/Fund_Overview.asp?fundid=6183
I would see this as “Some bulls are still naively dancing and cheering while some are quietly exiting …” Who would you rather be?
Vancouver developer Nat Bosa lays claim to bringing the highrise condominium to Orange County Calif., but has no qualms about putting the brakes on construction as the housing market falters there.
http://tinyurl.com/295pqu
Rob MBS (master or BS)
“I was surprised by the development there. On the one hand it seems as if the classic paving of paradise is well underway. On the other hand, if I compare it to Cabo San Lucas or Maui it doesn’t seem as if development is progressing as fast as I would have expected.”
Rob, do you think we should beg, borrow and or steal, and buy a piece of paradise which is under a perpetual cloud before the Olympics?
And, I finally found a blogger that can actually BS as good as you, perhaps because Pasquale has a “real” degree.
This guy compares to you, as you compare to Aaron, Check it out.
http://wwwrealestatechronicle.blogspot.com/
hey don’t you be dissing Rob
why the guy is like a machine
a hi-tech dishwasher…
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin…… 🙂
Rob,
What privacy legislation are you referring to that protects DOM information?
The information that a realtor collects for an MLS listing is largely governed by contract. If you refer to paragraph 11 of the Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Contract you will see that your clients agree to personal information being made available to the public. It is a business decision of the Realtors not to post DOM information publicly. There is no business upside for realtors in giving DOM information to the buying public. Why would a Realtor want to give a member of the public a negotiating advantage. If you want that information get yourself a realtor.
By my count the list sell for the last 3 days is:
1317 listing to 671 sales. LS 50%
very bearish but we will see where the trend goes.
I should have added that it is the seller that pays the commission.
Canadian companies find finances frozen
http://tinyurl.com/2952a5
Bank failure – Alpharetta, Georgia
http://tinyurl.com/2yw5z7
Blueskies, you must admit that if Rob is a black belt, Luigi is a Ninja.
Amero panned for now
http://tinyurl.com/36cabn
(heard that 2010 is the plan though, new North Carolina drivers licence already has the North American Union symbol on it)
Loonie closes above parity for the first time in nearly 31 years
http://tinyurl.com/36os3y
(predicted to hit $1.03 in Q4, interest rates to hold)
Hmmm…interesting show on 20/20 tonight re: the BUST going on in the US.
Rob? Are you watching?
lmao! thanks blueskies!
shey don’t you be dissing Rob
why the guy is like a machine
a hi-tech dishwasher…
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin
sell, sell, sell, spin……
Well, after watching Vancouver RE blogs for the past year and learning a lot, I’ve flipped from bull to bear and sold my home a few weeks ago in vancouver-west. In speaking with it seems like everyone on our block, there seems to be two prevailing attitudes – interestingly, they are polar opposites. One one side (probably 6-7 of 10), there are those who believe the market is going to go down very soon but for the most part don’t care as they will ride the ups and downs and the cost of change is too high. The other side (~3-4 of 10), people are generally saying the market is going to climb for many years to come (citations – Olympics, immigration). I don’t care either way really. I’m satisfied with a ~5%+ return on my money for the next few years – I smell too much smoke around me (mostly south of the border).
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