Short numbers tonight. I’m on my way to Ucluelet for the weekend!
There were 281 new listings today, and 210 sales, for a sell/list of 74.73%.
Inventory was 11,340, and over 90s were 2,642, or 23.30%.
Filed under Daily Numbers
Anyone have the sell/list figures for July and August
“In terms of selling, do you really think sellers make price decisions based on that kind of info, or make them that quickly?”
I don’t know. But it’s hard to figure out unless we can measure the correlation.
Do you think you can extrapolate accurately based on anecdotal evidence without using a scientific method?
Usually inventory goes down in the fall, so it is interesting that it has kept rising lately.
according to this lengthy article the credit problems are just starting.
$20-$30 worth of debt for every $1 invested
in opaque holdings with little oversight.
I still see houses selling in less than a week in North Van.
Good article Blueskies.
Canadian wholesale numbers came in four times higher than expected.
Canadian retail sales numbers came in lower than expected due to slower car sales. (no surprise there, as a lot of people are buying cars and everything else across the border with the dollar doing so well)
U.S. tourism to Canada is down 35% over the last year.
With the higher dollar, U.S. residents buying properties here less likely, U.S. residents selling property they already own here, more likely.
Excellent article blueskies……………should be read by anyone who is trying to understand the global credit markets.
The opinion of Satyajit Das obviously concurs with the concerns of the more credible economists and financial gurus. It also helps to explain why the FED is scared absolutely sh*tless of the potential magnitude of this thing.
OK, so what is the right thing to do?
I have zero debt and some savings.
Do I save? Thay say cash will be king soon, but how about inflation? I don’t want my hard earned dollars to become monopoly money…
Invest? Not after reading that article…
Buying real estate seems like a suicidal thing to do now… yet many people are still parting with their money this way and doing it merrily or so it seems…
I’d really hate to see prudent, responsible people like myself getting screwed in this mess…
“Usually inventory goes down in the fall, so it is interesting that it has kept rising lately.”
Not really. Last year on Rob’s old blog there was some solid inventory numbers but the sales were quite weak.
This time last year – sept 24ish 2006 – the 14 rolling sell/list was approx 46%…. rolling.
I thought it was the opposite: Sales usually drop off this time of year, not listings.
Listings drop off too, as people don’t want to be bothered with showings during the Christmas season, especially if their house takes awhile to sell.
Bernanke says subprime delinquencies, foreclosures will get worse (update)
Alan Greenspan, the former Fed chief, reminded everyone this week, “there have been housing booms in at least 40 different countries and the US is by no means above the median. If global house prices are as correlated on the way down as they were on the way up, the pain will not be confined to America. The cracks that have spread with the credit crisis could be the network through which the housing malaise travels.”
July’s in the REBGV sell/list was 78.66%
August’s was 76.77%
I can tell you that buyers and sellers, as a whole, don’t make their purchasing decisions based on what they read in any particular day’s business paper. I can’t prove that with any kind of scientific method, but I do have extensive experience with buyers and sellers. In that regard I’d argue that its not hard to figure out without measuring the correlation – you can see the real life event and recognize it without being able to get numerical evidence to prove it.
That said, some buyers and sellers do look at the larger issues – some people I’ve sold for recently, for example, are obviously considering a lot of the current credit goings on. However, they were also concerned that the market ahs gone up for several years, meaning it was clearly a good time for them to sell, but raising the question of whether it is a good time to buy. They aren’t the majority of the market, mind you.
Can I extrapolate accurately using anecdotal evidence? Trick question. Obviously I can’t, but I’m really just remarking on my experiences, not trying so much to extrapolate.
I’m not sure I buy the regluar fall/ spring/winter/summer rythym of real estate theory at the best of times, but I will point out that inventory is lower this month than last September.
Right now the average DOM is about 40. Its hit mid 30s. On that basis we can list today and be well sold and completed before Christmas gets here. Mine as much bad news as you like. Right now we still have low inventory, strong sales, and rising prices, regardless of what’s motivating it (2 3/4 moi, and that number has been steadily dropping over the past several months).
CAN THE GURU STOP SOME ONE?NO!NO!NO.
buying home for our self or for our childrens is necessities -more than investment.how ever people buy that on current market price,thats mean buying late than now is always scary for every one in both case either price will go down or price will go up.when price goes down people still got same home once we sacrifice to buy that on current market price,if price goes up people have to pay more like we see mom prices are going up every months.
so no guru or government,fundamentals can stop people buying or holding them self,at the end one can not be advice to buy or sell.
TD report on Cdn housing:
mining for good news 🙂
Sounds like everyone is willing to predict the way up….the way down has many fewer takers.
Might it have something to do with the fact that banks make money from mortgages, investments in cdos and other activities related to housing and business cycles?
“Sounds like everyone is willing to predict the way up….the way down has many fewer takers.” – Domus
Yes, odd, isn’t it?
“Sounds like everyone is willing to predict the way up….the way down has many fewer takers”
Quite the contrary to most of the people who comment here…
“Right now we still have low inventory, strong sales, and rising prices…” – Rob
If THAT is the case, why are inventory levels, at the very least, static? (according to your stats)
And, why are over 90’s hovering at almost 24%?
Sounds like “shill” talk to me. Or, denial?
But then again, why wouldn’t it be? You ARE a realtor, after all.
“90” does not mean the same old club-some leave the club-some new join the club,mostly locations matter,then come the prices some owner wish their price to sell so no matter what is the buyers response,but they(sellers) don’t like to give up in that case they can keep unit hanging in list no matter what ever that takes 90 days or couples of year.that’s like how can you please some one to sell their property? answer is pay the listed price.
Is it just me or is anyone else unable to understand a single sentence of satv’s posts? …makes my head hurt.
“I will point out that inventory is lower this month than last September.”
Numbers from Rob’s old blog:
Sept 18, 2006***10,773
Sept 19, 2006*** 10, 829
Sept 20, 2006***10,934
Numbers from Rob’s new blog:
Sept 18, 2007***11,289
Sept 19, 2007***11,302
Sept 20, 2007***11,289
Please explain how this years inventory is lower than last year.
I think he meant…”Listings come and go. Among the sellers, some cast a wide net and hope some sucker will come along. And, some buyers will just capitulate by saying to themselves, “Oh well, THAT’S JUST THE WAY IT IT, I SUPPOSE, so I guess I’ll have to pay the price they’re asking.”
Wow-some areas of Lower mainland are really going for under list price. MLS # V667665 in PoCo went for almost $45K below list ($499K list with $456 sell). IS it just PoCo or are other areas beginning to sell below list out there? By the way, this is not just one example as I have seen more listings recently below list, mainly between 2-5%. This one caught my eye as it was almost 10% below list. Not bad even when considering the Realtors have done an admirable job in inflating prices.
“Please explain how this years inventory is lower than last year.”
Yeah! I wanna know, too!
Domus: “Sounds like everyone is willing to predict the way up….the way down has many fewer takers.”
Except around here
“Might it have something to do with the fact that banks make money from mortgages, investments in cdos and other activities related to housing and business cycles?”
Or it might be what they really think. In each of the past 4 years the banks, CMHC, the media, and anyone bullish in general have been attacked for predicting exactly what has happened. Would you prefer we lie to you and just tell you what you want to hear? The fact is the market is still hot and there is no reason why it should reverse in the near future. Just my honest opinion.
“IS it just PoCo or are other areas beginning to sell below list out there? By the way, this is not just one example as I have seen more listings recently below list, mainly between 2-5%.” – Spencer
Ssh! Rob might think you’re crazy!
“Mine as much bad news as you like”
I’m not mining for bad news. I actually find the difference in the real estate market between Canada and the U.S. quite interesting, as do many other people who post similiar articles.
With statements like that the U.S. may cut interest rates again, which makes it interesting what the BOC will do.
Sept 20, 2007***11,289
That number should read 11,340 instead.
Forestry industry profit topples in housing woes, soaring loonie.
“I actually find the difference in the real estate market between Canada and the U.S. quite interesting, as do many other people who post similiar articles.” – Coco
Only a time lag. We’re not far behind, though.
(And, I know that you know that.)
The impact of the Canadian dollar’s rise on the B.C. economy varies from sector to sector (2 pages)
“…the U.S. may cut interest rates again…”
Flaherty calls Dodge about soaring loonie
A wise realtor once told me that if you put an iron on the lower mainland that is precisely the way the market heats up and also the way it cools. The heat starts in the middle(downtown) and then reaches the outer regions (Chilliwack) and cools in reverse…
In the last month I’ve received several fliers/postcards from realtors advertising houses for sale. It used to be I would almost only get requests to sell my house. Just an anomaly I guess?
Vancouver bounce:-Last unit # under 200k in vancouver.
that is one tiny unit for an apartment of that age.
you are selling your pad?
where you gonna live now?
did the buy low sell high thing work for you?
any wisdom that you can share?
Blueskies, good post from TD! I think that article is a bit conservative when calling for the slow down. The U.S. dollar will effect us in so many ways – it’s lower value will be felt.
The US has been incredibly fiscally imprudent.
They are fighting a very costly and badly managed war
Decided to give themselves (and especially the rich) large tax breaks
Cashed out of their home equity.
They have huge trade and budget deficits.
And they wonder why their dollar is crashing and gold is soaring.
We are prudent (hence our dollar’s rise) but we will be affected by their problems.
On top of that Vancouver has a high % of speculators in the property market, especially the condo market.
I think their mettle is about to be tested.
Interesting you mentioned that information a realtor told you. Several of us were having a conversation about real estate last week. The opinions from people who lived in the Fraser Valley, compared to Vancouver certainly varied quite a bit. You would of thought everyone was talking about different real estate markets in completely different provinces.
Seems to be some cooling in certain pockets of the Fraser Valley, yet certain areas in Vancouver remain very robust.
“A wise realtor once told me that if you put an iron on the lower mainland that is precisely the way the market heats up and also the way it cools. The heat starts in the middle(downtown) and then reaches the outer regions (Chilliwack) and cools in reverse…” – Disbelief
A wise guy eh? Guess what? He’s right.
(I should know, Ontario immigrantz. I’ve lived here all my life.)
Oh no, satv has found Rob’s blog. 😦
Also I think you mean ‘Vancouver dead cat bounce’, don’t ya?
“And, I know that you know that”
No, actually I don’t. I prefer not to call the game in the first quarter, there is a play that can turn everything upside down, including your prediction.
When I know, I will let you know.
That was me anonymous above
“I prefer not to call the game in the first quarter, there is a play that can turn everything upside down, including your prediction.” – It
You can have have any colour you want, as long as it’s black.
Fish, are you aware that the US budget deficit is expected to be 1.5% of GDP this year?
I miss the early days of VHB’s blog. There were some good quality posts. Now, there’s just so much verbal diarrhea.
What’s your point? Is that snide remark directed at me.
here’s some edcuation for you.
The Budget deficit peaked in 2004 at 4.7% of GDP it is now around 2%. Try spending 2-4% per annum more than you make for a decade and see how you do.
Then there is the goods and services imbalance which is running around $50 Billion a MONTH.
Then there is the total Federal debt
Then there is the total UNFUNDED liability- the US social programs which is any where from $30-50 TRILLION dollars
read and learn.
$9 Trillion, increasing at a rate of about $1 Billion/day
I tried posting with links but it wouldn’t accept, you will have to do some home-work yourself.
Satv’s mother is a donkey from kahzackstan. We use her to plow the fields here! She’s here in Canada collecting E.I.through the winter and use here in our janitorial company cleaning government toilets.
I have read ( I should say try to read ) SATV’s endless posts on VCI. It seems by his posts that he could be a new Canadian in hopes of getting rich using the formula (buy real estate wait and get rich ). A little lesson to Mr. SATV and others of similar mindsets. This sometimes happens, but like in any market (stock, bond, etc.) prices can and will go down. A little tip from some educated people who have been living in a capatilstic society for some time. Sit back and listen before you speak, it can make even you sound intelligent.
Dodge, Flaherty and the head of the Canadian Bankers Association talk about the Canadian economy next week.
Looks like there will be new tax breaks for the manufacturing industries announced shortly and the interest rate will hold. Of course, ideas on interest rates can change if the dollar goes over par and stays there.
Current stats point to an interest rate hold.
For my good friend Chip
It has just started to hit the fan in the US…and it is all due to housing.
I can see where is hole burned the most,so crash is there only.
Hmmm, could satv be yoda senile in his old age?
u wrote old robs numbers and new robs numbers
rob is back?
I love this blog. The news is always guaranteed to be bad and getting worse.
Real estate could tank by 40% and you would still get the same old song.
You can make or lose money in any market (bull or bear).
Sitting on the side lines waiting and watching will most certainly get you nothing, but lost time.
And time is the one thing that makes real estate investing as good as gold.
Lost time could save u money and put u years ahead……pay your dues.
Renting for half the cost of owning and saving a thousand dollars a month is doing something (yeah, I know I could save more…but I’m living it up…unlike my mortgage-chained friends). Renting and saving will put me ahead when the time comes for me to buy.
Priced out, It won’t put you ahead unless prices fall sharply and they won’t. Houses in my area are still selling way above list. the last one sold for 49,000 over a list price of 849,000. Interest rates could certainly fall as a strong dollar could reduce the inflation rate significantly. I do love this blog because it is the only place where you get the Snicks and Cocos of the world who just cling to their little version of reality
I think snick is tulipmania by another name
Vanreality, I’ve lived in Vancouver all my life.
Vancouver is not newly discovered.
Real estate is not a newly discovered investment vehicle.
Please get your head out of your ass.
Until few months ago, I wasn’t a bull or a bear. I was trying to get a down payment together for a nice place.
I’ve been watching a few condo buildings in the inner suburbs. Older, respectable buildings and economical, newer buildings. One building I’ve watched had two bdrms offered at around $270,ooo last year. A year later, the same units are around $280,000. In another building, the 2 bdrms were about $300,000-$310,000 last year. A little while ago, I was upset to see a few asking prices (for same size) at $325,000. Happily, I’m watching those prices drop to the same as last year. Those seller’s assumptions of gains were denied. EXCELLENT
In the same year, I’ve saved over $15,000 if you include my RRSPs. I’m not even trying hard to save. I’m eating out two or three times a week. My employer puts in matching RRSPs etc. and I automatically move money to saving from chequing (and then to investments). Its so bloody easy, while owning a home and trying to get by is sooooo harrrrrd.
The bears’ crash still hasn’t happened but in my niche the fizzle is out of the market. For me, the market is already flat.
“Priced out, It won’t put you ahead unless prices fall sharply “. No, one can be better off renting in many high-probability situations, and rather obviously if prices are flat, or drop slightly I’d prefer to be renting. Indeed, many do quite a bit better in equities over the long haul even when housing marches higher. In fact there has been general asset inflation recently, so it hasn’t taken much in the way of market smarts to have comparable returns to even this unusual housing market.
you owe yourself some in depth research on the unwinding of the credit bubble.
vancouver real estate is but a side note to what is coming down the pike.
Your too kind with your heads up for vanreal.
Vanreal is either an immigrant who only knows Vancouvers past for the last 6 years or is 23 years old.
Get out of town buddy, grow some chest hair, and research expo 86 80’s boom bus as well as 90’s.
September 23rd, 2007 at 4:46 pm
I think snick is tulipmania by another name
And you’re a nincompoop.
Fish, Chip, Fish, chip….ok, I’m hungry. I’m going to get a small snick and some Coco.
US dollar prediction: by Friday Cad = 1.03 USD. Gold, $750. Housing prices: lower.
any thoughts out there on what Gas Town prices will look like once the W is completed?
I’m not sure how I got involved in this conversation when I wasn’t even around. I have no idea what your talking about. I have mentioned on this blog that I have a realtor I’m working with and that if I buy in this market I would not overextend myself. That way if prices fall, I would be set to purchase another property. I guess you must of missed those posts.
The cocoa your talking about is spelled differently.
How much of a mortgage do you have?
does any of this apply to you?
are you with us or against us?
Debt doesn’t equal wealth.
Being content in life has nothing to do with the amount of property you own or don’t own.
A blog doesn’t reveal a person’s age, assets or bank account balance.
The person you slam on a blog can have a net worth much higher than your own. You may wish you were in their financial position.
From today’s Bloomberg (article on mortgage rates):
““Mortgage rates won’t stimulate demand,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. “The Fed may be a little impotent here because what caused this housing crash was overpriced housing, not mortgages.””
September 23rd, 2007 at 9:59 pm
any thoughts out there on what Gas Town prices will look like once the W is completed?
I think “w” was sold around $300 per sqf.now re-sale price are as following, than you can make a guess till completion Gastown is hot.
#1902 t-1-628@$669#1401 t-1 765@$765#4001 t-2 888@$929 #3107 t-1 664@$636 #1809 t-2 980@$758 #3701 t-2980@$791 #0302 t-2 915 @$610
zed thats currently resale price , low rate per sqf. means low floor and no parking.high rate per sqf means highest floor with parking ,views etc.
When I was in my mid-twenties, the credit manager of the company I was consulting for, had a big fancy house, BMW, rolex, wore expensive suits, talked stocks, etc. You would definately get the impression he was very wealthy man.
One day an employee who worked in a district office came into town and the credit manager took us both out for lunch. Nothing fancy, just pasta, no drinks. It cost $52.00 including the tip.
The credit manager handed the waiter his credit card to pay for the bill and the card bounced. He handed him a second credit card and that one bounced too. He handed the waiter a third credit card and that one bounced too. At this point, the other employee and myself, who were getting kind of embarrassed over the whole credit card bouncing situation and trying not to laugh, stated that we could put the meal on one of our credit cards instead, that it would go through.
We had a good laugh afterwards, we couldn’t believe that the credit manager who was twice our age, couldn’t even manage his own credit. Lessons learned: debt doesn’t equal wealth, appearances of wealth can be deceiving as the person can be in debt up to their eyeballs.
Zed, re: Woodward’s, satv says Gastown is hot. This post disagrees:
I’d take a walk around the neighborhood first and see if you want to mortgage away your life for the privilege of owning/living down there.
I am surprised there is demand in Gas Town. The East end of that area is possibly the worst area to be around (the local addicts, homeless etc). I work in that area and it is just sickening. I will be moving from my current office….and soon!
Mad rush of weekend cross-border shoppers apparently weren’t just shopping for cheap clothes and electronics. Real estate, too!
Thanks for posting that article.
Friends of mine can view the border lineups at a distance from their home. This is what they said to me a couple days ago: “It is crazy, you should see it, backed up at 6:30am with an hour wait and the wait gets longer and longer through out the day. There is a lot of money draining out of the BC economy and heading south.”
vanreal’s gotta be a blonde of the female variety, probably beyond any hope of reason, but anything is worth a try, even those chest hairs recommended upthread.
ya chest hairs and a set of implants in the ball sack.
Casualties of the credit boom
Ya but Vancouvers different.
gravity sucks equally everywhere!
your source is a blog site ,and in his own words’ he have no idea about first selling price,so he paralyzed his on commentary.
you can see in mls.ca for gastown there are only 11-15 unit through the year for sale,from that trend you can make a good guess that people like to buy there,don’t like to sell only some investor who have nothing to do with living are selling on timely manners.
You kiddin’ me?
Reminds me of the last time I was in Montreal. I wondered to myself if I sounded like this: “Doe u haaave some toilet?”
You are Borat in disguise!
Just as I thought you poke a bear with a stick and it makes for some truly ugly comments. Coco, my mortgage is zero not that it is any of your business.
hahahaha lots of monkey tails here,but no logic!so sweet/ b.s.
Just an observation here. When I was mentioning I was interested in buying RE to some friends they ALL suggested I wait. I am wondering if this is now the popular thought in Vancouver. This is the trend in the rest of Canada and US but not Vancouver…or it hasn’t been until lately. I can’t believe we’re immune to the financial issues that plague the U.S. and parts of Canada (export, timber etc in Canada). So, I will be waiting this one out.
Why the frantic rush to complete the Brio building in Abbotsford? Are they trying to get it done before the credit chill sets in?
mining for good news 🙂
sometimes you don’t find it……
PO – dunno anything about Brio but SFH inventory for Abby on mls.ca at the end of last Sept was 511 – it’s now just shy of 700 and going up steadily.
Do I detect a touch of bitterness in vanreal’s posts.
On another blog she was coplaining about sarcastic attacks.
Must be PMS.
Good for you if you don’t have a mortgage. If you think real estate is a good buy and will continue to go up, increase your assets and shop for more.
I really don’t understand how you think you poked a bear. Posting facts, figures and your viewpoint with diplomacy and respect is one thing when you disagree with the bears, throwing out negative comments about other bloggers or calling names when you disagree with someone is another story. I noticed the atmosphere on the blog totally changes towards you when you do this kind of thing and gets quite nasty back to you in return.
I also thought that was odd myself. They are trying to get the construction workers to work 6 days per week to finish it.
from the Globe n’ Mail
quote that the loss of a boom mentality among consumers poses a “significant risk” of a recession within the next year.
hey Vanreal…pour this over your cornflakes
Priced Out, perhaps they’re trying to complete so that unsold/flipper units can make it onto the market before the flood of completions that have been building up in Vancouver (due to inspectors on strike) are ready to hit the market. Or perhaps there’s a clause in their pre-sale contracts that pushes the units back onto the developer if it doesn’t complete in time…
It is interesting that a person would complain about the same thing they instigate. Must not understand the laws of sowing and reaping.
Are people getting caught with completions because they couldn’t sell their assignments on time?
I have read that this was happening on a more regular basis now and that units for sale have dropped in price due to competition from others who are in the same boat.
Are people getting caught with completions because they couldn’t sell their assignments on time?
according to Les Twarog out of every 100 units listed to sell as an assignment only 15 actually sell.
these seem like long odds for a big bet like buying RE on spec.
Pretty hard to bet against the futures market
even on planet vanreal
sorry, try this
Yeah, Joe, hard to bet against futures traders.
Wait, isn’t that the whole point of trading futures? I mean, producers buy them to hedge, but why do speculators trade in them if there’s no sense in doing it? And if housing futures are going down, and if interest rates are also going down (different futures traders, but still futures traders, all the same) aren’t those two things sending potentially different signals? I mean, is the market confusing, or is the market not confusing? All this time I’ve figured it was a complex, confusing beast, and now I learn that Reuters has the answers. Who knew!
Is the new banner picture from Uclulet? If so I stayed right there in the same cabins in the cove. Can’t remember the name of the cove but it was gorgeous.
Things seem to be slowing on the outskirts. Could be just a fall slow down, dunno. Friends have had their place up for a month with one price reduction and another on the way. Their agent said no one is buying anything. Opposite seems true in the center.
Working it’s way out back in? WHo knows
I come across this on you tube. It is prediction on Housing Market 2007 at the beginning of 2007.
It is funny!
That was pure gold! Funny how the bear guy got pounced on, and in hindsight he was the only one who had logic to his argument.
Nice, you got no mortgage. Congrad’s to you 🙂
Unfortunatley you have no idea what it’s like to be 25 with 10% down and have a $400k Mortgage.
It’s one thing to talk about your thoughts on your gain from your erra.
This erra we are in know holds a much different setting.
Dodge was speaking in Vancouver today. He said that he would have to examine the reasons why the Canadian dollar was on the rise.
Sounds like Dodge’s typical wait and see mode to me.
“Friends have had their place up for a month with one price reduction and another on the way.” – Da Mann
Which area do your friends live in?
Not sure if your confessed confusion about futures traders is sincere or sarcastic, but keep in mind that unlike anonymous bloggers, these guys are putting up real money to bet on the direction of the market.
As for your claim that interest rates are going down, don’t confuse the fed funds rate with private lending rates. The yield on 10 year US treasuries has moved up from 4.32% to 4.62% since the fed cut (6.94% in a week) and mortgage lenders are raising qualification requirements with increasing risk.
I noticed a couple builders asking for 10% down now in their ads.
Its sarcastic, as you and I both know. Futures traders go both ways, and they don’t always get it right. That’s why options can be so lucrative.
You’re right to point out that there are lots of rates. I’m not claiming that all rates are going down. I am claiming that there will be lots of pressure for them to go down, and that lots of options traders are betting on them going down. I guess I just have to laugh when a doom and gloomer says “The world’s ending – I got it from Reuters and they got it from the Merc”.
Are mortgage rates here moving? Not much. I’ll post an updated rate sheet when I get a chance.
What do you mean that builders are asking for 10% down? As opposed to what?
5% was typical from the same builders not long ago
Thanks Joe, about the futures market. I consider the consensus speculation on future prices in a liquid market like this to be very interesting indeed.
Friends, and myself, live in Steveston ( Richmond).
Not a big fan of Richmond at all but Steveston is very nice and a fair bit of demand to live there, yet nothing is moving.
Interesting observation. I note that in pre-sales there is usually a graduated deposit, over time, and it exceeds 5%. What kind of builders are you talking about?
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