Wednesday Numbers

There were 261 new listings and 178 sales today, for a sell/list of 68.20%.  29, or 16.29%, of the sales went for over list. 7, or 24.14%, were in North Van; there were only 19 sales (10.67%)  in North Van altogether, so 36.84% of all North Van sales were over list.

 Average sales price was $597,522, while average list price was $610,374, a difference of $12,852, or -1.5%.  Average DOM was 47.

There were 109 price changes.  6, or 5.5%, were increases.  Average original list price was $641,347, while average new list price was $623,804, a difference of $17,542, or -3.14%.  Average DOM to price change was 51.

 Inventory was 11,302, with  2,680, or 23.71%, being over 90 days. 0.91% of all active listings had their prices reduced today.

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40 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

40 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. mike

    Rob, you said:

    “Sales on MLS are reported when the subjects are removed and they become firm. That can be from 0 days to, say, two weeks. Longer than 2 weeks would be rare.””

    Is that true? Can you really have a deal done and reported on the same day?

    I think this is significant questions, because you say “Wednesday’s Numbers” .. when in fact, are they really wednesday’s numbers? Maybe last wednesday’s numbers..

    Would it be possible that you could try to clarify this for us? It would help to correlate events to sales/listing ratios.

    Thx 🙂

  2. coco

    Listings seem to be on the increase now. Our local real estate paper came out and I noticed quite a few new listings that have not made it to the MLS yet.

  3. coco

    I eat my words about the Canadian dollar from yesterday. It is on fire today.

  4. coco

    If the dollar goes above par, Dodge may cut.

  5. Noname

    The Canadian dollar is not on fire today.

    The US dollar is taking beating against other currencies.

    Noname

  6. Anonymous

    coco
    September 20th, 2007 at 7:17 am
    If the dollar goes above par, Dodge may cut.

    Why? The C$ was worth more than the US$ back in the 70’s. Why should it not be that way again now?

  7. Anon

    Thought this was interesting – rates to be cut at next BOC meeting? This is from today’s G&M by Tavia grant:

    “He (Stéfane Marion -National Bank) figures that the surge of the dollar combined with rising borrowing costs for businesses ‘are equivalent to more than 150 basis points of tightening in monetary conditions since the start of the month.’

    Thus he’s calling on the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates at its next meeting on October 16.”

    Equivalent to 150 Basis point tightening in ONE MONTH? Are some still expecting rates to maybe rise later on?

  8. coco

    Technically Dodge has no reason to cut interest rates right now, given the strength of the economy. If the dollar rises above parity, it will start to hurt the manufacturing industry exports. If the dollar trades over parity, then buyers of our goods will look elsewhere for cheaper priced products.

    In the mean time the higher dollar is buffering the cost to import costs, which helps control inflation.
    The higher dollar is basically doing the job an interest rate hike would do currently.

  9. Anonymous

    Yes, coco.
    Except not just “a hike” but 6 hikes!
    As Marion suggests, this month’s events including the dollar is as if the BOC hiked 6 times:

    “He (Stéfane Marion -National Bank) figures that the surge of the dollar combined with rising borrowing costs for businesses ‘are equivalent to more than 150 basis points of tightening in monetary conditions since the start of the month.’”

  10. Anonymous

    Also coco, inflation appeared tamer at last report 1.7%

  11. coco

    Bernanke was speaking about subprime this morning, when people realized he wasn’t saying anything new, the U.S. dollar fell and other currencies shot up.

    There still seems to be a mental block of the Canadian dollar maintaining parity and staying at that level. It hit parity at 10:15am and then it fell off.

  12. coco

    Anonymous,

    August inflation was down due to lower oil prices. The lower oil price trend has reversed itself, so inflation could come in higher for September.

  13. Anonymous

    Thanks for the oil explaination – good point.

  14. coco

    National Bank head office is in Montreal. Quebec manufacturing and sawmills are taking a hit from the higher Canadian dollar.

    I’m really not sure if other banks are of the same opinion or not.

  15. Northern Ally

    No housing woes in WA state or OR so it’s the entire Pacific NW going strong:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1927823220070919?pageNumber=1

    http://www.registerguard.com/news/2007/09/17/ed.edit.housing.0917.p1.php?section=opinion

    They have Microsoft, Boeing, Nike, etc., spectacular Oregon coast, and wine country getting better by the year with global warming. We should get together with them and form our own country!

    Maybe let N. California down to Carmel in as well, so we’d have Silicon Valley, the Salad Bowl, Napa, NFL, MLB, and NBA!

    That would rock!

  16. Popeye

    Coco, the ‘local real estate paper’ you are talking about is called “realtylink IN PRINT” a bi-weekly publication advertising properties for 6 or more sectors around these parts like Van east, coq. bby, etc. You know it I’m sure, and it’s great for buyers with no pc’s.
    But everything for sale in greater van is not advertised on their pages, only a fraction of what really is out there. For example in Burnaby, the highrise at 7064 Hall st. shows 6 listings but, in fact, there are 16–all with mls numbers. Same goes for condos on Collier St., Sandborne Ave., Station Hill, etc., etc. –tons of stuff for sale except you don’t see them. Is it to save money on newsprint? Personally, I don’t think so. More I think to disguise the glut of product that’s out there and sucker the public that this is still a hot market, when, in fact, it’s not. If that’s their game…you be the judge.

  17. Grin and Bear It

    NA, good links. Interesting reads. I don’t know about the Seattle one because they interview a realtor.

    It’s interesting to see the prices in Oregon. They still seem affordable. Our prices are not affordable. People are ‘killing’ themselves in order to buy. When most people can’t truly afford RE then there’s a problem. Quote as many sales as you want. It’s sad when most of a family’s net income has to go to mortgage and property. Doesn’t seem to be the way in Ore.

  18. robchipman

    Mike:

    They’re called Wednesday numbers just because that’s the report date. Sales and listings for any particular day get signed at different times, but there’s no solution for that other than to say “The day we enter the contract is the effective report day”.

    Yes, you could list a property, submit the listing to MLS and have it entered the same day. The same could happen with a sale. That’s the extreme end of the timeline, of course, but its possible. With sales it requires no subjects and an agreement made early in the day.

    Do you really think there is a big payoff in correlating events to sales numbers? For example, if the Fed drops rates on Tuesday, do you really think that will make a buyer decide to write on a particular house more than the floorplan, location, price, square footage and curb appeal? In terms of selling, do you really think sellers make price decisions based on that kind of info, or make them that quickly? Or are you thinking of something different?

    coco:

    MLS listings have to be submitted within 3 days of signing. Its unlikely that a listing in the paper isn’t on the real MLS system (as opposed to MLS.ca), unless its an exclusive listing (in my experience these are not common). In terms of the dollar going above par leading to interest rate cuts, a strong dollar is deflationary, and deflation = interest rate cuts. Dodge catches a break on the credit crunch challenge, for what that’s worth.

    The high dollar is already hurting Canadian business, and has been doing so for some time. Quebec lumber producer Tembec has suspended operations, I believe, rather than sell at a loss. The forestry sector is calling for intervention. Tourism sector asked for increased subsidies today, as monthly US overnight visits are down something like 81,000. Its not starting – its continuing.

  19. Northern Ally

    Grin and Bear It, true enough, most places in N. America now are more affordable compared to Van. But my sister lives in Eugene, OR–college town that time forgot in ’69–and a starter home there is close to 300k range. 80 miles from the ocean, restaurant fare consists of stir-fry or “Chinese”, just a bunch of hippies walking around in tye-die and Birks. Go figure!

  20. Dave

    There have been some interesting posts about Canadian subprime lending on Canadian Mortgage News & Trends – most recently a report that banks and other lenders are laying off a lot of mortgage-related staff. Are you hearing anything about this Rob?

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  22. Grin and Bear It

    It seems right now is not a good time to invest in RE. That much is becoming very obvious. The U.S. $ hitting the skids is not going to help increase RE value so you RE bulls might be want to prepare for a downturn. Anyway, what stocks or ETFs look good out there?

  23. robchipman

    Dave:

    Any sub-prime lenders have to make changes because their funding sources have pretty much dried up. Aside from that I haven’t heard about problems (i.e., conventional lenders still seem ok).

    Popeye:

    The actual numbers on the MLXchange are easily accessible. Its easy to drill down and verify them. The parts that make up the whole consist of members of the public, whether buyers or sellers. If the numbers were being manipulated why doesn’t someone discover it? Right now the inventory “conspiracy” would include over 11,000 members of the public, not to mention all the Realtors involved. If the conspiracy consisted in falsely keeping inventory low some sellers would be bound to ask: why isn’t my listing showing up?

    It would actually be pretty tough to “disguise the glut of product that’s out there and sucker the public that this is still a hot market, when, in fact, it’s not”.

  24. abc

    The dollar is at par, which is bad for the forestry, tourism and the film industries. It’s not such a stretch to expect consolidation and layoffs across these key sectors in the next couple years. (It may not be immediate—clever companies have currency hedges, but these will expire.) Construction and resources are doing well, but the former is getting long in the tooth and will be impacted by consolidation and layoffs in other sectors. If that all weren’t enough, the pine beetle is going to further compound losses in forestry and tourism, albeit that maybe closer to a 7 year time-frame.

    Perhaps these impacts will be milder than I anticipate. But I am not hopeful.

  25. Snick

    “They have Microsoft, Boeing, Nike, etc., spectacular Oregon coast, and wine country getting better by the year with global warming. We should get together with them and form our own country!”

    Over my dead body.

  26. What’s your current life expectancy, Snick?

    When the Dollar hits 1.1 or 1.2,we don’t have to amalgamate – we can just buy WA.

  27. Martgaged beyond point of no return

    We can buy US RE at a discount Ceejay, then we can be rockstars too!!!

  28. Snick

    All traitors should be reported to the RCMP/CSIS.

  29. DeeDub

    In one of the rags left on Translink seats today was a full-page ad from some yahoo selling a seminar/course on “How to profit from real estate downturn” (I’m paraphrasing, his language was stronger).

  30. Martgaged beyond point of no return

    Snick, Deedub…. I am playing with it. (US RE $$$ Idea)

    The comments are interesting. Sorry I am being a troll.

  31. Snick

    Which comments?

    The comments by people who would sell us out?

    Despite the fact that people fought for THIS country in foreign wars and would roll over in their graves to think that some poeple would give it up because of “expediency”?

    Report them.

  32. Martgaged beyond point of no return

    LOL, we gotta survive man. Snick, u sayin’ that we should let Americans buy us out here with all the other immigrants and still be Canadian Patriots!?

    Ha, I think whats good for them is now whats good for us.

    Just like the major occupation of Japanese now living in Hawaii.

    It’s all good. Were not turncoat we are like RE Agents… We’re opportunists!!!

    MAJOR ROTFL!!!

  33. Marko

    Rob – re: deflation=interest rate cuts

    Well, not so fast. Interest rates= inflation+real rate of return+risk

    In the US, it wasn’t a rise in inflation or the real rate of return (usually a constant in the short term) but a rise in risk that was tightening credit and raising rates. As well, a one-off rise in the loonie does not create expectations of deflation, anymore than a one-off drop produces expectations of future inflation.

    When the BoC talks about “core inflation” and its causes, they are almost always talking about labour costs. Its the cycle of inflation, wage settlements in anticipation of future inflation creating a self-fullfilling prophecy that has been at the core of central bank policy in North America since the 1970s. Regardless of the pain being felt in the eastern manufacturing sector we have a very tight labour market in Canada and I believe the BoC is looking at this much more than our rising dollar. In any case, flight from the greenback may be beyond a moderate drop in our interest rates.

  34. jeff

    #
    Snick
    September 20th, 2007 at 6:08 pm

    All traitors should be reported to the RCMP/CSIS.

    I think this is the stupidest thing I’ve ever read on a blog.

    Acttually I shouldn’t be so harsh. We all have things that make our blood boil. But it’s best to not expose them like this– you will probably have people trolling you about Cascadia for months now.

    PS Cascadia LOL

  35. coco

    Rob,

    Having this experience first hand. Your listing can make the real estate paper before it makes mls or vow system. It just depends on the timing when you sign and the deadline for the paper.

    As far as the number of actual properties not listed on MLS. Poyeye is correct. There can be one mls number for several properties. For instance, a builder can have 8 homes for sale, but only one mls number posts all eight. Thus, by posting a group of properties for sale under one mls number the true inventory amount is skewed.

  36. robchipman

    coco:

    I’ve got a bit of firsthand experience in this as well. I think you’re mixing up mls systems. Are you talking about the MLS.ca site? MLS.ca isn’t the MLS system. Realtylink in print is populated from MLS. Not all listings make it into Realtylink (Realtors can opt out) but all Realtylink listings are on MLS. VOWs work off the MLS platform as well.

    Also, builders used to only post one property on mls to save money. I’m sure they still sometimes post only a few, but there is no MLS driven financial incentive for it (flat rate charges now).

    That said, if builders aren’t listing all their properties that is hardly a Realtor driven conspiracy or an MLS attempt to manipulate numbers.

  37. Snick

    “LOL, we gotta survive man. Snick, u sayin’ that we should let Americans buy us out here with all the other immigrants and still be Canadian Patriots!?

    Ha, I think whats good for them is now whats good for us. ”

    There are always going to be idiots out there like you and Brian Mulroney who would sell us out. Go somewhere else to live.

  38. coco

    The real estate paper is not realty link. Listed on a weekend, paper came out Tuesday, listing was submitted Monday afternoon, MLS system Wednesday, mls.ca Friday

  39. Martgaged beyond point of no return

    Snick,

    One of Canada’s biggest economic engines is Immigration. All those immigrants that want to come here but still stay within their ethnic community, never ever fully immersing themselves in true Canadian society.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    !How Canadian is that?
    !Are they traitors to their former countries?
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Working only within their ethnic society collecting a paycheck as well as maybe even being on E.I. at the same time!!!

    I’ll explain, some ethnic only contractors will layoff their employees regularly and bid really low on aquiring jobs/projects to bring back those E.I. income employees to work for $5/hr under the table. No other contractors can compete. Ironically, some government buildings award these ethnic contractors regularly!!!
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    How patriotic is this? This is not old news?
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    If I can’t afford to compete in bidding on a home with foreign, half ass, ethnic immigrants, I am naturally forced to look for homes elsewhere!!!

    WTF is wrong with that?

    Canada lowered the affordability bar for housing therefore housing prices skyrocketed!!! Those immigrants with deep pockets come here and buy at a premium dumping their money here in Canada. Some as investment and some as a second home. Hot money from other economies!!! You sell your investment condo or your own home and essentially lock in the hot foreign money from other countries to Canada!!!

    All bets are off Snick, If Canada is sending raw lumber to be manufactured in other countries just to be sold back to us as furniture then I am definitly gonna keep my eyes open to any opportunities I can to take care of myself.

    I am not a traitor I pay 40% tax, I am about as Canadian as it gets. 🙂 Your right I am an IDIOT!!!

    A55H@LE~!

  40. Martgaged beyond point of no return

    Anybody who pays 40% tax has to be Canadian.

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