Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Numbers

There were 237 new listings Tuesday, and 121 sales for a sell/list of 51.05%.

 Wednesday there were 239 new listings and 140 sales, for a sell/list of 58.58%.

 Today there were 222 new listings and 100 sales, for a sell/list of 45.05%

Over 90s reached 2,446, while total inventory dropped to 10,985. 

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26 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

26 responses to “Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Numbers

  1. coco

    Rob,

    So what do you make of these sale numbers? Preapprovals run out?

    Friends of mine that live in Calgary say prices are now starting to come down the last couple months. YOY still up 10%, but they are beginning to wonder how much lower prices will go. Seems they were banking on the high percentage increases of the past to continue.

  2. bearette

    Why not make this the top blog? Seems the most relevant to your readers. And one line? These figures deserve better background, no? Or were sellers too busy taking the kiddies back and its a blip?

    I’m seeing some hilarious prices and sales shenanigans in N.Van. Some piece of s–t McMansion with no garage door built on top of the neighbours with a shared driveway, next to no landscaping and such sh–ty construction that the cabinets open half-way before they hit the light fixtures with wishing prices of $1.25 mill. You’d have to be on crack to pay that for this new-construction shoebox. And lo and behold, maybe others are agreeing with me … its been sitting with sad open houses for two months now. And the pathetic new twig trees are wilting. Suckas.

  3. Northern Ally

    To follow up on a comment I posted last week:

    Fri: 11305 + 185 listings – 128 sales = 11362

    But Fri inventory was 10864, meaning 498 listings expired or got pulled.

    10864 + 698 new listings this week – 361 sales =
    11201

    But inventory is 10985, a difference of -216.

    So 714 listings expired or off the market since last Friday? Seems high, no?

    How should I interpret this?

  4. Jesse

    N Ally
    you are certainly interpreting the numbers the right way if the numers are correct. I do trust Rob’s numbers anyway.

  5. VHB

    N Ally. It’s the end of the month, dude. We always see a boatload of expiries at the end of the month. Move on.

  6. Is there any body who has the … to declare this as the top?

    Anybody?

    Nobody?

    Ok. I declare this to be the top of the Vancouver real estate market.

    God bless and help all those suckers who bought in late 2005, 2006 and 2007.

  7. Considering

    I agree that all signs seem to indicate that August was the market top. With almost every other highly-priced market in North America (including nearby cities such as Edmonton and Seattle) showing declines this summer, and now an unprecedented credit crunch, it seems hard to believe there would be no changes here. To confirm this, these first figures for September show a significant fall in the sell/list ratio.

    Its true that many people including myself thought that a market top had been reached last summer. The difference this time is that housing price declines are happening in most highly-priced markets around the world, and the credit crunch has had real changes on availability of mortgages.

    Prices are far beyond what is supported by fundamentals (such as rent/price ratios or long-term average cost of construction), so psychology is now an important factor. The psychology of the credit crunch and all the news surrounding it is having a major impact.

  8. Northern Ally

    VHB wrote: “N Ally. It’s the end of the month, dude. We always see a boatload of expiries at the end of the month. Move on.”

    Why must you be so contemptuous? Regardless of whether there are a boatload of expiries at the end of the month, total listings in downtown are down 20% in 8 weeks according to Vannumbers. Total current inventory of 10864 is only slightly higher than July 2006 inventory of 10424. Maybe you think this is irrelevant. I’m simply asking what others make of this trend.

  9. robchipman

    Coco:

    We should soon see the proof in the pudding of the pre-approval run out thesis that we floated a few weeks ago. However, mortgage rates aren’t flying upwards, so the effect of pre-approvals running out may be less than was suspected by some. I know that a couple of my recent sales got great mortgage rates and hadn’t been pre-approved months earlier.

    Bearette:

    I’d love to devote more time to crunching the numbers, as I have in the past, but frankly I’m just too busy.

    I’d caution you on deriving too much from a non-sale. Vendors have been known to over-price a listing, and the market responds appropriately. Turning a nose up at an over-priced listing means the market is informed (that’s not a news flash); it doesn’t mean prices are falling. I just sold a NV lot for a pretty good price with multiple offers. I think my sale trumps your non-sale. (Of course, my main man Snick will want to disagree 🙂 )

    Northern Ally:

    I’ve mentioned this before, as have others, but I think that in the past there were many sellers simply trying out the market with high prices. Lo and behold, buyers paid the prices.

    I read the current situation as an idication that buyers are changing their pov on valkue, and won’t go to the net as hard as they did last year (high prices, credit crunch, higher rates, who cares?). The point is, a seller who says “If I get this price I’ll sell” needs a willing buyer to complete a sale. Without those buyers the seller’s listing expires. If the seller wasn’t a “must sell” they tend to (contrary to the popular “re-list” belief) to simply leave the market.

    In other words, I think the % of “must sells” is rising (all things being relative) while total inventory falls.

    As VHB says, there are lots of expiries at the end of the month. What’s important to note is that inventory doesn’t always just bounce back (which is the fallacy of the “the expiries just re-list again” theory).

    Joe 6-pack:

    I suspected that we were reaching a top last fall, based on slowing sales and slowing/negative price gains and increaing inventory. Strangely, faced with rising prices, strong sales and falling inventory, I’m taking a wait and see position. The market will change, but right now the trend of recent years is continuing.

    Considering:

    As I say, last year in late summer/fall, we saw different signs. Why the same conclusion today? Also, as VHB pointed out, lots of expiries at month end. Some of those re-list (not all, as I’ve argued, but some). Could those not explain a short spurt of start of month listings? We’re going to see, of course, but clearly I’m in the “I’ll call a top once its happened camp” (which is why I don’t advocate market timing).

  10. bearette

    Rob, but I don’t need you to caution me. I can think for myself, thanks. I’m sure you’re doing very well. But it’s far from the only house I’ve seen sitting. One N. Van townhouse development was trying to sell the same eight units from Nov. to May. Then they sold one. Then they took the sign down with the numbers, and now only advertise: “Sell out pricing.” Quel oxymoron. I sense fatigue.

  11. coco

    Some areas in the Fraser Valley hit their highest average price levels in May & June and have not gone back to those price levels since.

  12. crasher

    Rob said
    “Strangely, faced with rising prices, strong sales and falling inventory, I’m taking a wait and see position” ……….All yesterday’s news!

    C’mon Rob, you know darned well that the mood has already changed, sorta like Wile Coyote buying a little extra time by hyperventilating after having passed the edge of the cliff.

  13. robchipman

    Crasher:

    Excellent point. The market psychology has clearly changed and we’ve reached a top. And that’s based on your…gut feeling, right? That IS a new approach. We haven’t heard that ad infinitum, have we?

    This market is consistent for hanging in beyond expectations. You can understand why I prefer to call it after the fact.

    Bearette:

    You might not need the caution, but again, you’re looking at asking prices. Its sales prices that count, and the relation between sales volume and inventory. Asking prices are an indication of seller confidence, but seller confidence is not conclusive.

    Clearly sellers can’t be as demanding (in relative terms) as they were in the past. I think there’s lots of evidence of this in pre-sales, especially. Let’s not forget that we have higher prices and higher interest rates than we did in the past as well. If we had last year’s prices and last year’s rates, what would our sales be?

    Is that fatigue? You can argue that it is. However, I think that there is a danger of reversing the old saying Ï’ve been down so long that everything looks like up to me”. In this case we’ve had a strong market for so long that everything looks like a bad sign to some people. I’m not sure that high sales, high proces and declining inventory should be construed as a meltdown, or a peak.

  14. DaMann

    Just curious why on last Friday inventory was 10,864 then yesterday, Thursday ,you said inventory “dropped” yet it’s higher at 10,985.

    Mistake? Word play? Just nitpicking 🙂 Thanks for the numbers as always!

  15. Jay

    I have to agree with Rob when he says we’ll call it a top when it actually happens. I think there are signs that show a top but nothing concrete. We’ve seen low sales numbers before and they were temporary. Wasn’t it last January where we saw low numbers for a month and then the market exploded again? I could be off on the date but that was the result.

    Anyway, I’d like to call a top but I’m not going to fool myself or live in a fantasy world. The proof is in the pudding as they say. I’d love to get back into the market but not at these prices. I still can’t believe people are willing to pay these prices…

  16. crasher

    Unless you’re intending to buy or sell, “calling a top” is totally meaningless (especially in hindsight). It may be diligent for buyers to “wait and see”, but it could be catastrophic for any sellers trying to squeeze the last drop out of this market.

  17. paul

    North Van detached dropped a few grand last month

  18. VHB

    N ally:

    Sorry for the snark. I just get my back up when n00bs come through here and start throwing around accusations at Rob about cooking the data with ‘evidence’ amounting to data ‘anomalies’ that are in fact perfectly normal and in no way anomalous. I unloaded that bundled up irritation at NAlly and I shouldn’t have.

  19. robchipman

    DaMann:

    That’s just me not paying attention. When I do this properly I have a cumulative spreadsheet in front of me. When I do it quickly its more of a calculation on the back of a cigarette pack thing. My error – thanks for the catch.

    VHB:

    Its still nice to hear from you 😉

  20. The unthinkable "Renter"

    Rob your leaving out the average sell price +/-%.

    Overall are people getting what they want or is the average still 4% below list?

    THX

  21. The unthinkable "Renter"

    VHB are you comming back with your blog er’ what, we are still waiting for your crash/correction BUD! 😛

  22. blueskies

    #Joe 6 pack
    September 7th, 2007 at 12:04 am
    Is there any body who has the … to declare this as the top?
    Anybody?
    Nobody?

    Ok. I declare this to be the top of the Vancouver real estate market.

    God bless and help all those suckers who bought in late 2005, 2006 and 2007.

    Joe I like you 🙂
    you can drop by our place anytime
    Oh BTW it’s BYOB 🙂

  23. sidelines

    Yeah, back to work, VHB. Enough of this down time. Get yer blog going again, aiight?

  24. crasher

    The revival of VHB’s blog might be hoping for too much, but I’d settle for the odd post by freako, even if Rob’s welcome was less than what VHB received.

  25. VHB is not the original vhb. The real one traded his blog for a very nice discount, offered by the real estate industry, on his house in VW. Well, smart people win.

    blueskies
    No thanks; I am in the middle of mid-life crisis and am only interested in young ladies. You are too old.

  26. robchipman

    Crasher:

    From what I gather its freako who doesn’t like me. The feeling isn’t mutual. He’s a smart enough guy; he just strikes me as extremely thin-skinned. He bailed out of here on his own accord. He’s welcome back anytime.

    UTR:

    People weren’t getting -4% under asking in the past. It was seldom as high as -2%, on average. It’ll be interesting to see where we stand these days, and I’ll get you those numbers as soon as I have a chance. Any guesses?

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