I’ve got a link on my page to Gregg Swann’s Bloodhound blog. Gregg is Phoenix Realtor, and from what I gather, Phoenix is one of the places in the US that had a bubble and a crash and is a template for what will happen here.
In the course of my business I get a chance to talk to Americans from time to time. If they’re from Las Vegas or Phoenix or Southern Califormia I always ask them for their views on real estate there, in order to get some perspective on what I see on the blog. These guys are generally well off, and are generally long term real estate holders, but I have yet to find one seriously concerened about the future of real estate in any of the three places I’ve mentioned.
I dropped by Gregg Swann’s place today, for the first time in a long time, and found a post that is interesting in two ways. On one level, Gregg is eying a listing that he thinks has great latent value. On another level, he links to another blog, written by Richard Nikoley, wherein he discusses a way of looking at the buy-sell process that is kind of interesting.
Whats that got to do with Vancouver real estate? Simple. This market will change. If it changes drastically downwards there will be a lot of shell shocked people. There will be no shortage of talk that real estate is a terrible investment (we’ve heard the same talk during the time that it doubled in value, after all). In fact, it will probably be a great time to buy.
The market may change in another way. Prices may stop rising, but rents may continue to grow at double the inflation rate as owners fight to improve returns. A stagnant market may also provide buying opportunities.
The point is that buying and selling is, as Nikoley points out an “exercise in total freedom and is completely independent of [anyone’s] predictions or judgments, regardless of how meritorious [sounding] they may be”. There are two sides to every trade, and a lot of times the trades are win-win scenarios.