Friday and Monday Numbers

There were 206 new listings Friday and 226 sales for a sell/list of 109.71%.

Monday there were 252 new listings and 188 sales for a sell/list of 74.60%.  Inventory is currently 11,141.

Advertisements

127 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

127 responses to “Friday and Monday Numbers

  1. mike

    Well, good to see the US fallout isn’t spreading to canada.

  2. John

    Anyone want to make a prediction for when we’ll fall below 11,000 inventory?

  3. Jay

    I wonder if the next bump in interest rates will cause a buying slow down. Our market sure seems odd and flies in the face of fundamentals. If people are buying at these prices will a slight increase cause any slow down?

  4. Anonymous

    Given the recent BOC activities, Jay, I wouldn’t be expecting an interest rate “bump” anytime soon (for your anticipated buying slow down).

    Or at all.

    In fact, many are now betting on future rate CUTS.

  5. Dyugle

    If you get a cut then that last rate hike should mark the peak of the market, plus or minus about 3 months if the correlation holds.

  6. News Flash

    “Our market sure seems odd and flies in the face of fundamentals. ”

    The fundamentals are very strong. Economy booming, low unemployment, low interest rates, best city in the world to live, Olympics coming, rents rising double inflation, fiscally responsible government, strong $, etc.

    “If you get a cut then that last rate hike should mark the peak of the market, plus or minus about 3 months if the correlation holds.”

    True, but which market? BC real estate is not a factor here and beats to it’s own drum.

  7. Annon

    Hey, Canada is just different from US. The US problems (whether old news or news) are contained.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alP93ojUl6VE&refer=home

  8. J Friesen

    Hmm… not all Canada seems to be immune. Anyone check out the Edmonton Real Estate Blog?

    http://www.edmontonrealestateblog.com

  9. Snick

    “The fundamentals are very strong. Economy booming, low unemployment, low interest rates, best city in the world to live, Olympics coming, rents rising double inflation, fiscally responsible government, strong $, etc.” – ?

    This has to be one of the stupidest things I have read here yet.

    Whoever you are…

  10. tqn

    “This has to be one of the stupidest things I have read here yet.”

    and that made you the smartest among them?

  11. Strataman

    Snick; “The fundamentals are very strong. Economy booming, low unemployment, low interest rates, best city in the world to live, Olympics coming, rents rising double inflation, fiscally responsible government, strong $, etc.” – ?

    This has to be one of the stupidest things I have read here yet.

    Whoever you are…

    Funny thing Snick old boy, was dealing with a bunch of new owners today, condo’s had to kill some time so small talk you know about 16 owners asked them what they thought about the US housing crisis, and stock market instability..strangely no one had the faintest idea what I was talking about, finally we moved on to some deficiencies they wanted to discuss….. makes me wonder who these people are… investing $500 thousand plus, and preoccupied with the missing ($12.65 toilet paper hanger)! Must be so nice to live in that simple space! 🙂

  12. WoodenHorse

    Strataman: so…SO true. I put more research into buying a toaster oven.

  13. Snick

    “…about 16 owners asked them what they thought about the US housing crisis, and stock market instability..strangely no one had the faintest idea what I was talking about…” – Strataman

    Then they’re really stupid, too.

  14. Fozzie

    The U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown is BIG news in the financial world by anyone’s standards.

    I have no comment on how this turbulence may (or may not) affect Vancouver real estate, but I find it shocking that current purchasers aren’t even aware of the issue.

    Perhaps ignorance truly is bliss.

  15. vanreal

    I guess I just don’t see the strong connect between US housing prices tanking and Vancouver. We never had the same type of ill-equipped buyer up here because we for the most part staying clear of interest only loans. Yes the economy is tightening up money supplies but it looks like central banks are dumping in new money in order to keep the economy rolling and prevent a recession. This could actually be good news for bulls and bad news for bears.

  16. Dave

    I suspect that buyers in the Vancouver area are just as ill-equipped as buyers in the formerly hot markets down south. We may not have all the same instruments, but we have zero down, we have low doc, we have interest only, we have 40 year mortgages. What part of swimming naked do you not understand?

    As for central banks supplying credit, that truly does seem like a desperate move. Most likely there’s a whole lot more bad news to come, particularly if the yen carry trade continues to unwind.

  17. -A-

    “I guess I just don’t see the strong connect between US housing prices tanking and Vancouver.”

    It’s just noise, ignore the chicken littles, there is not connection.

    This may be your last chance to buy in Vancouver, better hurry Vanreal.

  18. mk-kids

    Went to see Transformers at the movie theatre on the weekend – think about the market audience for that flick. There was an ad from Scotiabank for the 100% down mortgage: “You’re richer than you think…” to which my husband added “until you take that mortgage…”

  19. Strataman

    vanreal; “I guess I just don’t see the strong connect between US housing prices tanking and Vancouver.”

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/2f6psa

    It is already affecting Canada, my point being (previous post) most new Canadian buyers live in lala land. They don’t even (as WoodenHorse suggested) put as much diligence in buying a home as someone with common sense would in buying a Toaster oven. I am a bear but I do not like to see nieve young people sunk either, I was once in Beautifull Best Place on Earth BC because I listened to “BULLS”. We followed the states to a tee (the 80’s recession). The bulls (my elders said no way were differant! :-), persuaded me to jump in right at the top, how I wish there had been blogs then!

  20. paulb

    The US is going into recession and we will follow. (3-6 months)

    Home sales will stagnate this Nov forward and will not recover for the typical busy spring market. We should see YOY price declines by June 08 with 50% higher inventory levels. Oh ya…… IMO 🙂

  21. Snick

    Glad to see people agreeing. Rob? Your turn.

  22. Geezer

    Here are some more dire predictions of impending doom. Only problem is they were all made in 2003. I have removed the poster’s names to avoid embarrassing them too much.

    They make interesting reading:

    Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
    I agree that there are many foreign buyers but I tend to think that the West Side market cannot go up too much more.

    1. Prices have hit a level where fewer and fewer buyers can afford those
    levels. Low rates have worked their wonder already?
    2. I believe the amount of foreign buying does not match that of the
    early 1990’s.
    3. I believe many off-shore (mainly Hong Kong) buyers are nearing the
    level where they would consider selling rental houses.
    (rents don’t justify the $ tied up in the house)

    Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:24 pm
    I found the the number of properties listed are increasing a little bit recently. The stock market is hotter now. Does it mean some money is already flowing out of housing market?

    Right now money in housing market is more than what it should be, and when the stock market becomes hotter, the temptation for higher return is definitely going to draw money to the stock market.

    Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2003 11:53 am
    Vancouver, and area Prices
    Holy Cr*p! How high can they go?

    Some of the prices I have seen are out of this world.

    Posted: Fri Mar 26, 2004 3:33 pm

    Owners are putting up listings that are astronomical. I’ve seen new townhomes in Richmond with asking prices equivalent to non-strata single-family homes ($400K).

    Crazy! But it would be interesting to see if they sell

    IMO, the recession in America is just beginning. We will have to see the extend of the damage. Even the Alberta RE markets will be affected if the recession becomes global.

    There is no way that our little local RE market is going to remain unaffected.

    All assets prices will pullback, starting now.
    _________________________

    Now let me see, what has happened to RE prices since these insightful predictions were posted – in 2003 (yes 2003) ….. Oh!..prices seem to have edged up just a little!

  23. -A-

    Geezer
    August 14th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
    Here are some more dire predictions of impending doom. Only problem is they were all made in 2003. I have removed the poster’s names to avoid embarrassing them too much.

    They make interesting reading:

    Posted: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
    I agree that there are many foreign buyers but I tend to think that the West Side market cannot go up too much more.

    1. Prices have hit a level where fewer and fewer buyers can afford those
    levels. Low rates have worked their wonder already?
    2. I believe the amount of foreign buying does not match that of the
    early 1990’s.
    3. I believe many off-shore (mainly Hong Kong) buyers are nearing the
    level where they would consider selling rental houses.
    (rents don’t justify the $ tied up in the house)

    Posted: Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:24 pm
    I found the the number of properties listed are increasing a little bit recently. The stock market is hotter now. Does it mean some money is already flowing out of housing market?

    Right now money in housing market is more than what it should be, and when the stock market becomes hotter, the temptation for higher return is definitely going to draw money to the stock market.

    Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2003 11:53 am
    Vancouver, and area Prices
    Holy Cr*p! How high can they go?

    Some of the prices I have seen are out of this world.

    Posted: Fri Mar 26, 2004 3:33 pm

    Owners are putting up listings that are astronomical. I’ve seen new townhomes in Richmond with asking prices equivalent to non-strata single-family homes ($400K).

    Crazy! But it would be interesting to see if they sell

    IMO, the recession in America is just beginning. We will have to see the extend of the damage. Even the Alberta RE markets will be affected if the recession becomes global.

    There is no way that our little local RE market is going to remain unaffected.

    All assets prices will pullback, starting now.
    _________________________

    Now let me see, what has happened to RE prices since these insightful predictions were posted – in 2003 (yes 2003) ….. Oh!..prices seem to have edged up just a little!

    I think it would be an excellent time to by now.

    Don’t you Geez?

  24. Snick

    Don’t be so dumb. Past real estate cycles usually would have run their course after 4 Q’s or so. This bubble one has BEEN QUITE DIFFERENT and now we know why.

    The shenanigans in the financial markets are now just coming to light.

    THAT is what prolonged this ridiculous excess. To say otherwise proves that you are an idiot.

  25. News Flash

    Considering the huge sales last month and declining inventory this month, could this be the hottest Summer real estate market in Vancouver’s history?

    I bet we break a record for sales volume Jul/Aug.

    What do you think Snick? What does your crystal ball say?

  26. The unthinkable "Renter"

    I got two crystal balls and they say that if you don’t buy now then you have the biggest kahuna’s ever.

    Geezer your a jack ass. Get out of your retirement and get a job over at Home Depot for $12 bucks and hour and tell me what kind of buying power that it gives you today.

    Quit taunting people that are holding out. It’s a free world. If they don’t want to support the big ball and chain, so what. “Told you so,” doesn’t mean anything.
    __________________________________
    Dave said,

    Dave
    August 14th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
    I suspect that buyers in the Vancouver area are just as ill-equipped as buyers in the formerly hot markets down south. We may not have all the same instruments, but we have zero down, we have low doc, we have interest only, we have 40 year mortgages. What part of swimming naked do you not understand?

    As for central banks supplying credit, that truly does seem like a desperate move. Most likely there’s a whole lot more bad news to come, particularly if the yen carry trade continues to unwind.
    ___________________________________

    I mentioned basically what you said here Dave. I am sure Rob agrees as well but won’t admit it.

    I smell something big around the corner. It’s not Geezers turd.

  27. John

    The unthinkable “Renter”:

    Calling someone a jackass is pretty extreme. So what if he points something out? The reality is people had a lot of chances to buy with a pretty stagnant market from 96-01. A lot of investors bought in 2003 thinking it would still go up due to pent up demand. They were right.

    Even if Geezer is posting some predictions from 2003, looking back on what people were saying through the history of this run makes for some interesting thoughts.

    The people posting in 2003 were probably hoping for some sort of correction that would have brought prices down to 2001 levels.

    I think 2001 levels are now a pipe dream, and it would take a lot for prices to go as low as they were in 2003. These posters would have done better to have bought then… of course unless the savings they made through renting did better.

    Someone who bought a $200,000 condo in 2003 with $10,000 down could sell for over $300,000 today. That’s a 1000% gross return on their money. Take away the difference they paid paying their mortgage interest, strata, and taxes and I would say this person did better than the person who invested the money they saved by renting.

    The home depot employee making $12 an hour makes a lot more than the minimum wage I made at a similar outfit when I was 19, so that person is rarely the right fit to purchase real estate in any market. I see salaries and wages on the rise and people making more money. 30 year low unemployment will do that, and it also has something to do with fueling this run. Yes, it’s running out of steam, the gains are less this year, but I think we’ll see small gains next year still.

    Would I buy something now? Probably not. But Geezer can quote me on that in 4 years. 🙂

  28. Jay

    Well, seems to be a mixed bag of opinions here. I don’t know how prices continue to increase but they do. Many people here suggest they will slow and correct. Why do you guys/gals think the correction is on the way?

  29. fish

    News flash…let me add to your list

    Vancouver will never experience a recession ever again
    The forestry industry is in great shape- those record losses are just a smoke-screen for profits.
    The Olympics will increase tax revenues and all the infrastructure costs will be paid for several times over
    Even though buyers in the US are watching their home (and now stock) equity vanish they will still stream across the border, despite the higher loonie and buy Whistler RE.
    If the Americans don’t, then the Albertans will surely take their place.
    It only rains a few months of the year
    The increased population density is being well managed with short commutes and easy access across all bridges.

    Enough already!

  30. fish

    jay- nobody knows. Heck we cant even forecast the weather.

    However the NUMBERS don’t make sense. Just looked at a condo on Georgia. Motivated seller ++.

    If I buy 100% cash I am looking at 3% return on rental. Just not worth it for the effort. If prices drop even a few %, then I am losing money.

    Can prices go down. You betcha…nothing usually goes up for ever at a parabolic rate..maybe Vancouver RE is different.

  31. CC

    When did this blog become a circle-jerk for shrill, ill-mannered bears?? Hey Snick and Renter, maybe people will listen to you if you shriek even LOUDER and become more abusive. Actually, you will eventually be (somewhat) correct, if you shriek long enough.

    As Rob-O has said so often, the question is when is the correction coming and how much/how long. To date, on the first question, you nobs have been wrongwrongwrongwrong and on the second you have as little ability to predict as the rest of us, so give Geezer the respect he deserves.

  32. Considering

    The comments from both sides above are mostly correct. The previous predictions starting from 2003 that we were near a market top were wrong, and the current market remains hot in spite of hugely inflated prices. On the other hand, none of this proves that there will not be a huge price drop that takes us far below current levels.

    Since I have large amounts of my own money at stake, I have looked at this quite closely. After looking at many properties in Vancouver for sale, my own conclusion is that they are priced far above what is supported by the fundamentals, so my decision has been to rent until prices come down, even though I can’t predict the timing.

    Why do I say fundamentals show there will be a price correction? The case is clearest for condos, which have doubled in real prices over the past 5 years for no long-term reason. There is no shortage of land, so they can continue to be built indefinitely. While construction costs have shot up, this is clearly a short-term phenomenon and will correct quickly as Olympic construction completes and certainly with the next recession. I cannot see why condo prices will not revert to the mean and fall by at least 50% in real terms below current levels. Other prices, even West side single family homes, have always tracked condo prices per square foot quite closely.

    As for timing, the huge upcoming real estate correction in the US (now clearly inevitable even to real estate boosters), the likely upcoming recession in the US and then Canada, and the unprecedented difficulties in the mortgage markets, all point to changes in the near term. I am very happy to put my money into renting a nice place and waiting for the future to unfold.

  33. News Flash

    fish,

    “Vancouver will never experience a recession ever again”

    I am sure it will. I just don’t see it in the next few years. By the time it arrives how much have prices gone up? VHB’s thesis was prices couldn’t rise in a booming economy due to interest rate increases. So much for that theory.

    “The forestry industry is in great shape- those record losses are just a smoke-screen for profits.”

    Real estate has gone up 100% with forestry losing money. What happens if and when forestry turns around?

    “The Olympics will increase tax revenues and all the infrastructure costs will be paid for several times over”

    Ever wonder why most major cities compete for the Olympics every 2 years? Is it because they are bad for an economy? Only if they are mismanaged. It looks to me like 2010 is doing just fine.

    “Even though buyers in the US are watching their home (and now stock) equity vanish they will still stream across the border, despite the higher loonie and buy Whistler RE.”

    Whistler seems to be holding up fine and the dollar has already gone up, stock markets are down and US real estate is in trouble. With the US dollar, real estate and stocks dropping it only makes Canadian real estate more attractive in order to protect capital. FYI – the people in the US who buy Whistler real estate have made huge amounts of wealth over the past few years. They don’t hold mortgages and price fluctuations are of little concern. These people aren’t going broke anytime soon.

    “If the Americans don’t, then the Albertans will surely take their place.”

    I’m sure they will.

    “It only rains a few months of the year”

    As it always has. People like the rain and the greenery it brings with it.

    “The increased population density is being well managed with short commutes and easy access across all bridges.”

    One reason why Vancouver is more expensive than Surrey and will continue to be. Ever been to an LA or NY suburb and commuted? It is kind of like saying Vancouver has gun violence problems so people in the US won’t move here.

    “Enough already!”

    I’m done.

  34. Annon

    Ever wonder why the bulls are interested in this blog? Perhaps to see how much more their house prices have gone up day by day? If they have so much confidence in the strong housing market (which is mostly a long term thing), it is not clear what they would gain from this blog. Unless they are actually unsure and concerned of the market direction. That 20+ year mortgage must require constant house appreciation so they can sleep well at night.

    It does make more sense for the bears to gain more from this blog as they are still observing and deciding what to do next.

  35. Strataman

    Anon “Ever wonder why the bulls are interested in this blog?”
    Same thought often strikes me, a committed bull one who is financially secure in their investments would get little out of these sort of blogs. Basically a bear reads them to find others that think alike and to reinforce their sense that they are not alone in the masses. A bull has no neeed they are part of the mass majority, ..unless they are having trouble sleeping! 🙂

  36. tqn

    “Ever wonder why the bulls are interested in this blog?”
    because it’s entertaining! If you think these kinda of blogs would potentially bring down or run up the market, you hibernate too long even in the summer.

    “That 20+ year mortgage must require constant house appreciation so they can sleep well at night.”
    they sleep very well into the morning regardless of the rate of appreciation knowingly that their snorings dont bother any socalled landlord.

  37. tqn

    Geezer,
    Thanks for digging those old posts. Unforturnate, still see it repeating every day.

  38. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Markets have their ups and downs weather you like it or not. When you step on and of the elevator can put you years ahead or put you years behind.

    Geezer is predicting history. That’s easy to predict. Very byast.

  39. The unthinkable"Renter"

    byist? LOL feel like a Jack Ass here. Oh no I am beginning to cry. Wah!

  40. Ken G

    Hey Newsflash,

    That is quite the post you have there even by bull standards. You are making a whole lot of assumptions. How old are you? By the way can you throw in a cure for cancer and global warming while your at it?

  41. househunter

    Let me know what you think on this situation. A relative has a house that was appraised at 1.5 mil. Here’s the catch. This individual has no mortgage. They are trying to cash out but want to stay in the Vancouver West Side area. What would you guys do? I told them to SELL! And take the money, buy a $850k crapper, reno it with a $250k budget and pocket the rest. Comments? Think out of the box, cause this is the best idea I could come up with.

  42. rentingsucks

    Dave said:
    __________________________________
    Dave said,

    Dave
    August 14th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
    I suspect that buyers in the Vancouver area are just as ill-equipped as buyers in the formerly hot markets down south. We may not have all the same instruments, but we have zero down, we have low doc, we have interest only, we have 40 year mortgages. What part of swimming naked do you not understand?

    As for central banks supplying credit, that truly does seem like a desperate move. Most likely there’s a whole lot more bad news to come, particularly if the yen carry trade continues to unwind.
    __________________________________

    Here is something that just came to light for me recently. If you already own your own place and have > 25 percent down (I am assuming this is part of the criteria but I haven’t confirmed.) You can currently get a loan for greater than .32 percent of your gross income. A number I have heard tossed around was that .4 is the norm but I estimate that a friend that was currently qualified was around .45 to .5 of their GROSS income.

    It makes a lot of sense as to how people are affording these houses. Do a calculation for yourself and multiply your gross income by .45 and see how much money you have left to live off when you subtract this from your taxed income.

    How vulnerable are people that are doing this to interest rate increases or job loss. I used to think we had better lending standards than the states but I don’t think so any more.

  43. News Flash

    “Ever wonder why the bulls are interested in this blog?”

    It is a real estate investment blog. Rob gives some great information on how to do it well.

    Although it keeps things entertaining and I want to hear everyones point of view, I wonder why people who constantly slag Vancouver and real estate in general bother coming by this blog.

    I personally have no interest in basket weaving and do not plan on ever taking it as a hobby. Do you think I hang out on basket weaving blogs telling everyone who does it they are an idiot and baskets are useless, overpriced and will depreciate.

  44. TI

    When the era ,cash is king, comes, any asset except cash will be worth less and less.

    When buyers stay away from the housing market after credit crunch, properties will be more difficult in valuation.

    The 50% correction for real estate is more probable.

  45. News Flash

    Ken,

    “That is quite the post you have there even by bull standards. You are making a whole lot of assumptions.”

    What specifically do you disagree with?

    “By the way can you throw in a cure for cancer and global warming while your at it?”

    Sure.

    1. Eat healthy food only, don’t smoke and exercise. 90% of all cancers are preventable according to many experts.

    2. Stop producing green house gasses. ie drive less, conserve electricity, etc.

  46. News Flash

    “They are trying to cash out but want to stay in the Vancouver West Side area. What would you guys do? I told them to SELL! And take the money, buy a $850k crapper, reno it with a $250k budget and pocket the rest. Comments?”

    Probably better off buying a condo, townhouse or moving from the westside . 850k would be a real crapper if available and unless they are experienced at renovations it is risky.

  47. TI

    My parents just sold a property in Whistler early last year.

    They didn’t sell at the peak but pretty close to it.

    They felt very lucky because of slow sales and dropping prices now.

    American really trapped in Whistler.

  48. Priced Out

    Looks like a desperate effort to keep the DOW above 13000. But these things will never effect Vancouver.

  49. Geezer

    Snick wrote:
    “Don’t be so dumb.” & “To say otherwise proves that you are an idiot.”

    Well, that sure put me in my place. It’s hard to argue with such an unemotional and rational response – you got me!

    The unthikable Renter wrote:
    “Geezer your a jack ass. Get out of your retirement and get a job over at Home Depot for $12 bucks and hour and tell me what kind of buying power that it gives you today.
    Quit taunting people that are holding out. It’s a free world. If they don’t want to support the big ball and chain, so what. “Told you so,” doesn’t mean anything.
    I smell something big around the corner. It’s not Geezers turd”

    Wow, another well reasoned response. Actually, I didn’t say “I told you so”. I merely found it interesting to see all the virtually identical predictions of impending doom that have been repeated ad nauseam for many years. I am sorry history offends you so much.

    Snick also wrote:
    “Geezer is predicting history. That’s easy to predict.”

    Not quite sure how you “predict history”. I guess that must be another one of these Bear ideas, does it involve time machines?

    It seems that by merely daring to mention blog history I have poked a stick into a veritable hornet’s nest of bearish intellectuals. I am humbled by their clarity of thought.

  50. Snick

    “Snick also wrote:
    “Geezer is predicting history. That’s easy to predict.” – Geezer

    No he didn’t.

  51. Snick

    Once again, Geezer, this boom was prolonged by financial shenanigans. This is now coming to light.

    You didn’t really think that EVERYONE could get rich through RE did you? Silly!

  52. ceejay

    Hey, we can forecast the weather….
    FPCN11 CWVR 151745
    Forecasts for the south coast of British Columbia issued by
    Environment Canada at 11.00 AM PDT Wednesday 15 August 2007 for today
    and Thursday.
    The next scheduled forecast will be issued at 4.00 PM.

    Greater Vancouver.
    Today..Sunny. High 31 except 24 near the water. UV index 7 or high.
    Tonight..A few clouds. Low 14.
    Thursday..Sunny with cloudy periods. Increasing cloudiness in the
    afternoon with a few showers beginning late in the day. High 22.

    Stay tuned for tommorrow’s forecast verification…

  53. Jay

    Well, I am looking to get back into the market but not at these prices. It doesn’t seem like they’re coming down anytime soon and that’s really depressing. Current rents are also quite insane and are just below some mortgage payments. It’s a tough RE world in Vancouver!

  54. Annon

    Is Geezer going to be around to still brag when the RE market finally declines (doesn’t matter when as it just will, and I am patient)? Because for me and perhaps a number of others, it’s the future trend that I am interested. So bragging about the fact that you know past market gains doesn’t tell me much. Wondering if Geezer wants to endorse his own prediction of the ever growing RE market with a date and we will see if we can give him more praises when the time comes. I mean what does Geezer have to lose. He’s been right since 2003 so he can be right another 4 years with the same argument.

  55. Jay

    Honestly, I could care less about previous posts and historical posts. I think current a more fact-driven commentary would be far more interesting.

    These prices continue to soar and is that the future? What’s the scoop with interest rates?

  56. fish

    I think Rob is losing interest in this blog, or the new house and business are consuming all his time.

    Not that I blame him, it is thankless work, especially providing the numbers in such detail, and having to take barbs on top.

    I wish there was a reliable outside source to get good numbers. MLS is old data…but I see they have tarted up their web-site abit.

    I just drove to Powell River. Drove past thousands of acres of untouched Crown Land… (bit of logging her and there)

    The Drive to Prince George is even more revealing. There is no lack of land in this province, it’s just that we all want to cram ourselves into this little corner 🙂

  57. robchipman

    Fish:

    There’s lots of land everywhere. But PG isn’t Vancouver. When we say land supply is restricted, we mean in the places that we want to be in.

    I’m not losing interest in the blog. I am extremely busy these days. House and business.

    Jay:

    I think historical posts are important and here’s why: some people claim to be able to analyize our complex scenario with clear vision. Some go as far as to call other people stupid for not seeing things the same way. Its worth recognizing that most of the bear’s argument hasn’t changed for years, and many of the bears have been plain wrong (with the biggest sin being the claim of knowing more than they really knew).

    Recognizing that many bears have been wrong isn’t the same as saying that the opposite of their argument is true. The fact is that real estate prices and volumes go up and down, the market changes, it always does, blah blah blah. I think that the conclusion we should be deriving from our observations is that this market is very difficult to explain, and could still go either way. When Snick dismisses fundamentals like a strong economy and low unemployment he’s simply being foolish.

    Annon:

    I don’t think geezer is bragging, frankly, but I hope he is around when this market declines (as it one day will). I know I’ll be here. However, for me to lose in a significant way I’ll have to be forced to sell and prices will have to drop by between 25% and 75% to hurt me. I do think geezer does a service by pointing out that real estate, long term, tends to increase in value. It has been proven, time and again, that it is worthwhile to get in more often than it is worthwhile to get out.

    TI:

    We haven’t peaked yet. Your parents aren’t the first to make that call (and I’m not saying it was wrong for them, because clearly I don’t have enough information on that), but I am evicting a good tenant from one of my client’s properties…because the client is tired of paying rent. They sold their principal residence 18 months ago, thinking we had peaked. BTW, the client is a smart guy.

  58. Jay

    History is valuable and so are previous numbers etc. It seemed like those old posts were put up just to gloat a bit (not that there’s anything wrong with that – but I think it can be done in a far more friendly matter. There was a bit of malicious intent there).

    Rob, what makes you say we haven’t peaked yet? Just curious.

  59. helen

    guys ,

    read this one..Vancouver is no different from other cities in the world.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1230248820070814

  60. helen

    i guess this might be happening in vancouver as well…otherwise who can afford to buy over 500K aptt and over Million $$$$ houses?

    Subprime mortgages are offered to less creditworthy home buyers. Alt-A loans were originally designed for borrowers with cleaner credit records, but with other issues that often meant they provided fewer documents showing what they earned.

  61. robchipman

    O.K., when I say we haven’t peaked, I mean that it isn’t clear to an objective person that we’ve peaked, and we won’t know for sure that we’ve peaked until after the fact. We’ve seen, during this run up, month over month declines in prices (July ’06, October, ’06, November ’06, December ’06, January ’06). Are prices going to drop again in August? Or will they go up? Nobody knows (o.k., aside from Snick, nobody knows).

  62. blueskies

    heads up!

    given the unprecedented credit “anomalies”
    currently in play how can you buy a house if you can’t get a mortgage?

    unless you have 100% cash to buy, it will be a no sale…. sales volume down bigtime

    any leveraged specuvestor looking to exit will be RE roadkill

    I await with bated breath….

  63. Annon

    Has anyone noticed that there are many more “For Lease” signs in the city. Just drive around Metrotown on Kingsway and you will see at least a sign in almost every block. So unless the market is very strong in a way that my brain can not comprehend, I think only the brave souls are still entering the market without asking for discounts.

  64. Geezer

    “Snick also wrote:
    “Geezer is predicting history. That’s easy to predict.” – Geezer

    No he didn’t.

    Sorry Snick, my mistake, it was “The Unthinking Renter”. There are so many of you angry bears you are all starting to sound the same.

  65. macchiato

    “I am sure it will. I just don’t see it in the next few years. By the time it arrives how much have prices gone up? VHB’s thesis was prices couldn’t rise in a booming economy due to interest rate increases. So much for that theory.”
    —–
    that theory seems to make a LOT of sense in the US of A, although it seems like you may be trivializing something VHB wrote.

  66. Geezer

    Rob wrote:
    “I do think geezer does a service by pointing out that real estate, long term, tends to increase in value. It has been proven, time and again, that it is worthwhile to get in more often than it is worthwhile to get out.”

    Thank you. That is one of two key points that motivate most of my posts. The other one is when it comes to corrections, nobody, but nobody, can say with any certainty when it will happen or if it will cause a small price reversal, a large price reversal or just a slowdown in appreciation.

    My reason for posting the old forcasts that seem to have infuriated a few bears is just to remind people that the future may not be as clear cut as some people might have us believe. The people who made those wildly wrong predictions in the past probably did so in good faith and with solid reasoning behind their calls – just like today.

    Of course a correction will come, but in what form and when are the areas where our differing opinions kick in. As another poster once said, “wishing it were so does not make it so.”

    Finally, I am not bragging, I am just trying to remind the doom and gloomers that, whilst they may be right, they may also be wrong.

  67. macchiato

    “The forestry industry is in great shape- those record losses are just a smoke-screen for profits.”

    Real estate has gone up 100% with forestry losing money. What happens if and when forestry turns around?

    —–

    WTF do you mean? prices were up 100% here *while* forestry was *booming* along with the US housing market … it`s only recently turned very sour, I don`t think the repercussions have manifested yet.

  68. Anon

    I’ve learned something in the past few weeks from watching the unfolding debaucle created by the CDO-sub-prime melt-down: when there is a flight to liquidity, fundamentals are irrelevant. This may be a generalization, but I can’t see this playing out well in Vancouver, despite the fact that it is a beautiful city, has low unemployment, etc, etc. Credit crunch = lower access to capital = less buyers of homes. Match that up with supply that is coming on stream and it will likely mean lower prices.
    We are not immune.

  69. finallyaffordable

    Just two words for the Bears. F Off.

    You are the reason why I am not living in the house, I could have bought for $200K less, two years ago.

    DA BULLS, I am jumpin In!!

  70. News Flash

    “that theory seems to make a LOT of sense in the US of A, although it seems like you may be trivializing something VHB wrote.”

    The theory does make sense, except Vancouver’s economy does not influence Canadian interest rates to any large extent. Central Canada does.

    It was VHB’s main thesis for sitting out of the market at the beginning of his blog.

  71. Snick

    “O.K., when I say we haven’t peaked, I mean that it isn’t clear to an objective person that we’ve peaked, and we won’t know for sure that we’ve peaked until after the fact. ” – Rob

    Well, being as objective as you are, what’ IS going on, Rob? C’mon, go out on a limb. For once? Just a teeny bit?

  72. News Flash

    “WTF do you mean? prices were up 100% here *while* forestry was *booming* along with the US housing market … it`s only recently turned very sour, I don`t think the repercussions have manifested yet.”

    The US tariffs were put in place at the start of this boom which caused a lot of pain for most forestry companies. The BC forestry industry employs about 1/3 of what it did 10 or 15 years ago. Hardly booming. Forestry is now a very small part of Vancouver’s economy.

  73. News Flash

    “currently in play how can you buy a house if you can’t get a mortgage?”

    You can’t. Mortgages in Canada are just as easy to get as they were last year. Let us know when that changes.

  74. Snick

    “When Snick dismisses fundamentals like a strong economy and low unemployment he’s simply being foolish.” – ?

    Not at all. Actualy, I am quite smart.

  75. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Rob, strong economy granted but it doesn’t increase wages nearly enough. Just means that more suicidal buyers can get in with zero down.

    Affordability increased by increased ammortization. Canada’s loose lending gimmicks are right along up there with the U.S.A.’s private lenders turmoil.

    RE is a good investment, I agree Geezer.
    Buy today and yes we have to wait at least 20 years to show it’s a good investment vehicle. By the way there is doom and gloom in YVR’s RE history that you completely overlook.

    I was looking at getting a pre approved mortgage, apparently rates have gone up from this lender from 5.29% to 5.8% within the last 2 weeks.

    What will Septr’s rates bring?

  76. vanreal

    I would stop quoting VHB if I were you. I am sure the guy saw the light and bought into the market. Haven’t heard hide nor hair of him in months.

  77. vanreal

    Jay welcome to the new reality

  78. vanreal

    Mirrror mirror on the wall who votes Snick the biggest idiot of them all?

  79. fish

    Rob

    The top can only be called with hindsight. I would not be willing to call a top or bottom in naything.

    Hwoever for me, the RE numbers have not made sense for two years at least. the market has gone up in that time and even though I would have made money had I bought, I have to use logic in inestment decisions.

    That is what kept me out of the 2000 internet bust. All my buddies where boating over their nortel and cisco profits. None of it made sense to me, and I lost at first but gained eventually.

    It is interesting BTW how quickly psychology chnages. Look at the US stock-market…ONE month ago we were sitting at all time highs on the S and P and DOW and everyhting looked ++ bullish, now it seems we are looking at financial armageddon. Doesn’t take long.

    I suspect one day, people will wake up and realise that the home that is eating up 40% of their after tax income could be rented for 50-60% cheaper or that investment that has a negative cash-flow is losing value too…

    When???

    Your guess is as good as mine.

  80. fish

    Pardon the typos.

  81. CC

    Snick,

    Maybe you need this pointed out to you in simpler terms: Rob shies away from predicting where the market is going because, like many others, he admits that he cannot predict the timing and severity of market corrections.

    You, on the other hand, display the certitude of the foolish (whatever your actual intelligence) as you boldly make ignorant predictions.

    It isn’t fear that you identify in Rob. It is the wisdom of knowing what he does not know.

  82. Annon

    So Rob is trying to be objective on this whole bull/bear thing despite the fact that he’s never failed to point out that “time and again, …. proves getting in to RE in most cases is better than not”. Hmm… a bull in disguise? Well, that’s understandable. For sure in a declining market, Rob isn’t going to starve. But given a choice, a rising market sure brings more business to Rob so why not?

    So, the bulls, being in the game already, should sit comfortably at home and enjoy the wealth their RE has brought. I mean would a bull with lofty gains from their RE be easily angered by a bear especially when bears are clearly wrong at the moment?

    What is the real conflict of interest here? Say if the market just rises and rises, who’s to benefit? The bulls? For sure not the bears. If the market returns to normal, who’s to benefit? All? Possibly. Because bulls still own the house so they are ok because RE is long term. The bears can reasonably afford a place and that’s good too.

    ….. Unless, some bulls, while unsure but took the chance anyway thinking that it’s better to not miss the chance than to avoid risk. And all these bear talks would then make these bulls even more nervous.

    Otherwise, I just can’t think of a reason why bulls should be upset with the bears. The bulls are already making money and you can’t take it easy with the losing bears?

  83. coco

    Whether bear or bull, credit crunch/liquidity fears can make people hoard cash and stop buying things. Even houses will not be immune.

    Greed and fear rule the markets and only time will tell which one will end up ruling.

  84. Anonymous

    News Flash,

    Can you honestly say with a striaght face that lumber is small part of our economy? This industry employs as many as construction and oil and gas. We all know what is going to happen to construction dont we. What pray tell is supporting this province’s employment rates?

    The film industry? or tech maybe?

    Good luck with that one.

  85. The Original Joshua

    “What pray tell is supporting this province’s employment rates?”

    Starbucks, man.

  86. vanreal

    In 2005, forestry accounted for 39% of BC’s total exports down from 60% in 1985. Just to clarify a point mentioned earlier

  87. Anonymous

    Yes 39% sounds about right for exports not to mention any domestics biz that is still a very big number. Add construction. oil and gas and other resources and you pretty much have it.

    I think it is a little cheeky to say lumber is not a significant part of our economy.

  88. Annon

    Well now the Canadian stocks have just started to correct itself (doesn’t matter what triggered it), we will see how well our market take it soon. I sure see the declining of commodities adding pressure to the market as well.

  89. Jay

    It is odd to see our RE market thrive despite the US slump in RE, BC residents over extending themselves and not saving $, stock market issues etc. Our market does not seem to make sense. I can’t say that I am a bull or bear yet because this is a new interest for me but I do believe I have been priced out of the Vancouver RE market. I can afford it but the risk is too great, in my mind.

  90. Anonymous

    “Well now the Canadian stocks have just started to correct itself (doesn’t matter what triggered it), we will see how well our market take it soon. I sure see the declining of commodities adding pressure to the market as well.”

    You DO know that Real Estate benefits with a stock market correction… don’t you?

  91. Noname

    “You DO know that Real Estate benefits with a stock market correction… don’t you?”

    You DO know that you have no idea what is happeninng in the financial markets…. don’t you?

    Making the above statement clearly examplifies that you don’t have a clue.

    Noname

  92. Ryan

    Rob can we please have Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s numbers?

    With the markets as they are I want to know if people are listing more units.

    Sounds crazy but just because of the financial news I’m thinking putting an investment property on the market.

  93. Anonymous

    Ryan,

    “Sounds crazy but just because of the financial news I’m thinking putting an investment property on the market.”

    If you’re that heavily leveraged and that emotional about a piece of property, you should have never bought.

    You must be a flipper/speculator. Because if daily market news scares you that much, then you obviously have no respect for the long-term & should definately sell.

    I’d only buy in the first place if I knew I’d be holding AT LEAST 8 years, thus making daily financial “news” far less relevant.

    Hopefully this fear will wash other short-term flippers/speculators out of this market too.

  94. Annon

    I’d say “…..daily market news scares you that much….” makes sense maybe two weeks ago? That scary news has since carried on and this global sell off still seems to be going. So may be the extend is a little more just a scary daily news?

  95. tqn

    “Hopefully this fear will wash other short-term flippers/speculators out of this market too.”

    it’s a free market system so flippers/speculators are free to make (or lose) money. The market will take care of them. Why hopefull? You missed the chance so you blame them now?

  96. joe blfzk

    The run-up of our RE market over the last couple of years has been contrary to all fundamentals. It has been driven by Joe Homeowner who has little or no understanding of financial markets or economics. This has clearly been indicated by rational that RE must continue to go up because it has done so for the last 2 years….pretty scary logic.

    We may finall have a catalyst that even the great unwashed can no longer ignore. It will probably take some time to sink in, which will enable more astute observers to sell before it’s too late.

  97. Anonymous

    “Why hopefull? You missed the chance so you blame them now?”

    Hopeful indeed. Just my personal beef with speculation. I’m not much of a fan of watching an investment arena that I’m interested & involved in become intoxicated by those who speculate with it.

    The more flippers & speculators the more weirder and weirder it gets. I find its harder to evaluate when the speculators arrive. They come, then they leave… it all…. a mess.

    But hey, a lot of our country’s great wealth was founded on speculation so all the best to them.

    For me though, I’d much rather “invest”.

  98. Ryan

    Pretty brave of you Anonymous, lashing out at me all anonymous like.

    1) I bought the investment property in 2004 so I’ve made a good chunk of change on it.

    2) There is a credit crunch that is going to hit the US in a big way in the long term, as in next 12 months. The housing market is not going to miraculously recover in the US and with the Fed holding steady both stocks and housing will continue to suffer.

    3) Vancouver is fundamentally overvalued. Yes the long term economic view for the Province is great, but in the short term the market will correct. I’m now willing to be half a million dollars on that by selling.

    4) Holding for 10 years makes no sense. If you beleive the market it going to correct short term and go up long term then the rational decision is to sell now and buy back later. Even if you’re buying back at the same total cost after 3 years, that’s three years you’ve had the opportunity to make better than 0% on your money. I know I can beat 0% on my money.

    5) This Christmas is going to be rough for Vancouver real estate. Period. And this December on this forum you can hold me to that comment and laugh in my face if it’s not.

    Does anyone know what Ozzie’s doing with his personal portfolio right now? He knows more about the market than most of us and has proven that he can time it accurately in the past.

  99. joe blfzk

    Ryan,

    TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!

    I did (quite recently), and man, am I ever relieved.

  100. Anonymous

    Ryan,

    “I bought the investment property in 2004 so I’ve made a good chunk of change on it.”

    Out of curiosity, where are you going to take your profits to?

    “There is a credit crunch that is going to hit the US in a big way in the long term, as in next 12 months.”

    They just injected over $200 Billion to rectify this, no? And it will get worse because of this injection?

    “Vancouver is fundamentally overvalued”

    You didn’t think it was in 2004 when everyone else was saying the same thing at that time? What made you buy then?

    “Holding for 10 years makes no sense”

    It doesn’t? You really want to bet the farm & your family home on a short term correction & buy back later scenario? Didn’t like tons of VHB clones do this like last year? 11% ago? In the hopes of a “short-term” profit on a Vancouver property decline? Didn’t Rob just give a real life example of this from some guy?

    “This Christmas is going to be rough for Vancouver real estate. Period”

    Really? Why is this Christmas going to be different from the rest? Enlighten us.

    “And this December on this forum you can hold me to that comment and laugh in my face if it’s not.”

    Ya because thats really important to me.

    “Does anyone know what Ozzie’s doing with his personal portfolio right now? He knows more about the market than most of us and has proven that he can time it accurately in the past.”

    Is this part a joke?

  101. The Original Joshua

    102 comments posted on a single blog entry! Man, this blog is hot, hot, hot! This record shattering posting volume is just *sizzling*!! I’d better post now, or I might NEVER get to post!!!

  102. Anonymous

    Ozzie’s whole premise is that he doesn’t time the market, he goes for the deal. I think “Ryan” is a bullshit fake poster maybe his alterego is Snick.

  103. News Flash

    “I think it is a little cheeky to say lumber is not a significant part of our economy.”

    My exact statement was:

    “Forestry is now a very small part of VANCOUVER’S economy.”

    It wasn’t always that way.

    Yes if you live in the interior it is still a large factor. In many towns it is 80% of the jobs. Are we talking about the interior here? No. How many forestry jobs are in Vancouver? Not many.

    The original point was forestry has not been booming over the past several years. It has been a declining industry for 20 years.

  104. Ryan

    If you think ozzie can’t and hasn’t timed the market you don’t know him. are you aware of what he did in the 80’s with perfect timing before the crash?

    secondly the liquidity that the feds are injecting is not going to save the us economy. it;s a drop in the bucket.

    500 billion in corporate debt won’t be sold by sept 30th. 50 billion in arms resetting in october. the fed rate will guaranteed be higher by this time next year by at least 1%. it’s time for the central banks to effect a transfer of assets through illiquidity catching the right segment of the market that is overleveraged. i.e. 90% of it.

    december is just an annual stress point in the real estate market. i feel next spring we’re not going to recover as nicely.

    im not snick.

    i didn’t sell before this recent 11% run up thanks to the fortitude of my partner whos always been a bull but even he’s feeling jittery now.

    buying in 2004 was 50% luck and 50% prediction.

    boy you’re taking this personally. are you a realtor? or an unprudent investor?

    As Mr. Buffett rightly stated, sell when there is greed in the market and buy when there is fear. Vancouverites are still greedy and I feel they’ve been greedy too long. fear will take a good 12 to 18 months to really hit home and I’m willing to be patient.

  105. crasher

    “Boy yuo’re really taking this personal”

    It’s understandable that recent buyers are motivated to defend their investment, but it is sort of amusing how the desparation of that defense gets cranked up a notch when fundamentals are deteriorating and pushing us ever closer to the edge of the cliff.

  106. paulb

    GVRD for last 3 days 915/513 LS of 56% hmmm is a chnage in the air? Robs numbers are slightly different and I would expext more bearish.

  107. Snick

    “GVRD for last 3 days 915/513 LS of 56% hmmm is a chnage in the air? Robs numbers are slightly different and I would expext more bearish.” -paulb

    What the hell is this supposed to mean?

  108. The unthinkable "Renter"

    Anonomous commenter = Rob

    Snick= Has testicles and a conservative opinion. What’s wrong with that?

    To anybody who thinks thay made allot of Money on RE. Money is currently equity and until you sell it’s not 100%. If the market turns your equity falls and so does the likelyhood of getting your highest equity value in cash… so keep on bragging of your big gains.

    We don’t all share the same view point. So what. Haven’t you guys ever heard of the 7 year housing cycle?

    Things can change. I can afford to buy, but even with my freedom I am concerned of equity erosion and being stuck with high interest payments.

  109. investah

    Existing home sales fall in 41 states: Worst downturn in 16 years:
    http://tinyurl.com/2yy5gt

    Wait till next month’s numbers, when the panic selling starts to kick in from the current financial mess.

  110. The unthinkable "Renter"

    This is Vancouver. This place is different.

  111. paulb

    Snick

    OK, GVRD I am sure you can manage. 915 listings 513 sales in the area in the last 3 days. List sell is 56% for this time period.

    Sorry , did not mean to confuse with my mind bending code lol.

  112. Snick

    Phew! (not meant for you, paulb) on tonight’s Global News Hour at 6, I had my worst fears evaporate when it was reported that Vancouver probably won’t see the same RE correection as we are seeing in the US.

    The likes of Cameron Muir et al and assorted others reassured me.

    Newscaster Deb Hope had that “look of concern” on her face, but seemed to relax, too, after the clip. (after all, her 1,000.000+ Anmore home COULD slide, valuewise a tad)

    So, sleep well 2-nite. ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz

  113. Snick

    “Snick= Has testicles and a conservative opinion. What’s wrong with that?” – The Unthinkable Renter

    Nothing. Nothing at all.

    It’s just, well, phooey, they don’t see the “bog picture”, that’s all.

  114. Snick

    The “big picture”, either

  115. coco

    Mortage crunch has even wealthy buyers scrambling for credit.

    http://tinyurl.com/3cwg3k

  116. johnnyrent

    Hmmm “Vancouver probably won’t see the same RE correction…..”. The word “probably” is new (assuming this was quoted verbatim). The next descriptor will be “may not”, followed by “might” followed by rear view mirror rationales for “has”.

    Never trust economists on anything but history.

  117. Snick

    “Never trust economists on anything but history.” – johnnyrent

    So true.

    This reminds me of BOTH Michael Campbell AND Michael Levy. (Often featured on the local News. “know it alls”…not.)

    I get a real kick out of whenever both of their mouths flap away as though “they saw it coming”.

    They only “react” when all is said and done. Can you imagine THEM looking after your hard-earned money?

  118. tqn

    “They only “react” when all is said and done. Can you imagine THEM looking after your hard-earned money?”

    and I suppose you are over-qualified to look after their hard earn money then? And I thought you are the “know it alls”…

  119. Snick

    So reactive, tqn. Friends of yours?

  120. Snick

    Now, about those numbers. Rob?

  121. helen

    where are u Ron?

    hope everything is well with you like Vancouver housing..

  122. The unthinkable "Renter"

    ya Ron
    where are you:(

  123. And the forecast verifies…correct.

    Meteorology 1. Economics 0.

    I bought a lot of mutual funds today. The house can wait.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s