Friday Numbers

I’m short staffed at my office this week (and was last week as wel) so time is at a premium.  Friday new listings were 195 and sales were 235, for a sell/list of 120.51%. 

I think we should expect strong listings today, given tht we’re coming off a long weekend, but I think the real question these days is whether we’re seeing a “pre-approval bump” that is kicking volumes higher.  Only time will tell. 

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22 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

22 responses to “Friday Numbers

  1. mike

    (checks date)

    Tuesday, August 7th, 2007…12:39 pm

  2. mike

    Are you submitting from the past now? 🙂

  3. M-

    My pre-approval ends on Friday. I wonder how much longer these hot sales are going to last?

  4. Strataman

    My own feeling is until we see inventory pass 16,000 in Rob’s area we are in a hot market. That’s the only figure I watch the rest is like the stock market up and down on data collection methods., much caused by the way the GVREB handles the daily data.

  5. The unthinkable"Renter"

    whatch, rates, new mortgage products, and inventory. the intro of 40 year ammort is the real kickerthat will slow any correction as well as delay it.

  6. News Flash

    On CNBC today they figured the Fed would be cutting rates in October. With the US election next year they will want the housing situation to be improving. It is the home owners who are the voters.

    Since Canada typically follows the US with interest rates and considering the strong Canadian $ it is unlikely we will see a 5 year mortgage above 6.0% before the rates fall here as well.

    The good news is even if prices don’t come down much at least mortgage rates will be cheaper.

  7. Noname

    News Flash,

    If that is the case, you can say good-bye to the dollary.

    In all honesty, I am afraid that I will have to agree with you. I think the Fed will indeed try to lower the rate making people think that housing is ok, when in fact, rampant inflation will simply detiriorate any value left in those homes.

    Americans will be fooled again until they go to the gas station having to pay $6 a gallon with their worthless dollar.

    The Fed is in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.

    Noname

  8. Anonymous

    Hi Noname,

    “when in fact, rampant inflation will simply detiriorate any value left in those homes”

    Doesn’t inflation historically equate/lead to real estate price appreciation?

  9. coco

    It doesn’t matter what the fed is doing in October.
    BOC is curbing inflation. Interest rates will continue to rise until it is under control 2.0% or less.

    Dodges replacement thinks interest rates should of been raised sooner and should be higher than they are. So, I don’t think he will be lowering interest rates any time soon when he takes over.

  10. coco

    Also inflation would have to be consistantly under 2.0% for a several months before BOC would considering lowering rates.

  11. Noname

    Anonymous said – “Doesn’t inflation historically equate/lead to real estate price appreciation?”

    No.

    Their house prices will not change much (eg: 500K house will still cost 500K 5 years later), but that 500K will be only worth 250K inflation adjusted.

    Of course, they will be happy because they will be fooled into thinking that their house value has not dropped when in fact it dropped 50% (using the above example).

    Noname

  12. coco

    With the average mortgage taking up 68% of your income, hasn’t inflation and price appreciation already arrived?

    Unless you believe that a mortgage payment can increase to 75% to 85% of your income without any negative effects on spending in other areas of the economy.

  13. Anonymous

    The BoC has to think about the East as well as the West. the east is not experiencing high inflation and in fact the dollar is negatively impacting manufacturing. I am not sure that we will see any more increases in the rate especially if the US starts to lower theirs. Our dollar will soar and manufacturing will be decimated.

  14. Coq_Mike

    Noname said:

    “Their house prices will not change much (eg: 500K house will still cost 500K 5 years later), but that 500K will be only worth 250K inflation adjusted.”

    How can have inflation and not have a 500k increase in value?

  15. renting

    coco said: “With the average mortgage taking up 68% of your income, hasn’t inflation and price appreciation already arrived?

    Unless you believe that a mortgage payment can increase to 75% to 85% of your income without any negative effects on spending in other areas of the economy.”

    The point is you don’t have to buy and accordingly mortgage costs are not part of the inflation index. Rents have to go up for inflation to go up which they are (anecdotally) starting to do do. One theory I have that rents will go up which will drive up interest rates which will drive down house prices which will drive rents back down. So that a good chunk of this appreciation relies on rents not catching up to current prices.

  16. Anonymous

    anonymous,

    BOC is all about inflation control as a whole, as per their policy on their website.

    http://tinyurl.com/3dy5rl

    Wait until Sept 5 and you will see how much they will consider Ontario manufacturing in the BOC interest rate decision.

  17. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Ya it’s amazing how people compare USA RE and its economy to Canada’s, then another Vancouverite comes along and says, ” Vancouver is different.”

    Will we follow the US?
    Are we different?

    Let’s get it together. High dollar hurts our manufacturing and exports.

    The BOC only prolonged the rate rise as long as they could to help out CHMC’s stupid intro of products, products that will help us throw more money in interest back at the bank in a short period of time.

  18. coco

    “Mortgage costs are not part of the inflation index.”

    I believe you have your facts incorrect.

    http://tinyurl.com/2mlswt

  19. renting

    Ok I investigated a little further and it isn’t quite that simple. Take a look at the PDF on this page from statscan:

    http://tinyurl.com/2gkoau

    On page 5 of the document. It says that since 2001 the preferred index has been the CPIX which exludes mortgage interest costs altogether.

    Also it sounds like they may tinker with how they weight mortgage costs because of the feedback loop that can be generated ( increasing the borrowing rate increases the mortage costs which increases the inflation rate in the short term ).

  20. coco

    Murky just like the government. They calculate shelter costs (owned & rented) plus utilities on this graph. Some how part or all of it is calculated into total CPI for Canada.

    http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/cpis09c.htm

    We need a statscan economist to verify. lol.

  21. coco

    Okay here is all the tables for CPI.

    http://tinyurl.com/2mydze

  22. renting

    Wow. For the table “Consumer Price Index, shelter, by province ” it looks like since 2002 rents are up 4.4 percent and owned accomodation is 13 odd percent. This is for all of Canada. I would be really interested to see what these numbers look like for BC. They have another table but it only contains the maritime provinces.

    So roughly owned accomodation has gone up 3 percent a year and renting about 1 percent for all of Canada. I suspect the number differential for BC would be a lot higher.

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