Thursday Numbers

There were 217 new listings Thursday and 181 sales, for a sell/list of 83.41%. Of the sales 26, or 14.36%, went over list. 11 of those were on the Westside. 4 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond, 1 was in Port Coquitlam,  1 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby, and 4 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $583,415: average sales price was $568,362, a difference of $15,052, meaning the average sale went for 1.72% under list price. 14 properties went for list price. One property went for 15%($1,000,000) under list while the highest over list was 18% ($180,000) over.  One property sold for $12.00 over list.

There were 17 million dollar plus properties sold, with 4 over $2 million and 1 of those over $7 million. Average days on market to sale was 37.

There were 87 price changes, of which 7, or 8.05%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $586,263; the average new price was $566,703, a difference of $19,560, meaning the average price change was -2.87%.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 11,997, while over 90s also dropped, reaching 2,054, a percentage of 17.12%.

0.67% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list dropped slightly, reaching 71.10%.

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37 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

37 responses to “Thursday Numbers

  1. Domus

    In this apparently brisk selling week, I want to draw you attention to a nice article on Bloomberg’s site today:

    http://tinyurl.com/29xs6d

    I am not making any point in particular, just thought many people might find this an interesting read…..

  2. passerby

    Not sure if this was already discussed before, but wouldn’t the median price work better compared to an average price ? Specifically, in the context of affordability discussions.

  3. Snick

    I would LOVE median prices to be published. All we ever seem to get are “average” or “benchmark” which, IMO, are not that representative of what is realy happening.

  4. Snick

    Just curious, Rob…but, why do your listings totals differ from those of “Van RE Numbers” (Google same) that are also posted daily for the REBGV?

  5. Geezer

    The article from Domus was interesting and although he did not attempt to make any point I think this quote from the article should be taken seriously.

    “Thirty-seven new high-rise condos and 20,000 new units are being built in Miami’s 1,040-acre downtown, where sales fell almost 50 percent in May, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The new units will join the 22,924 existing condos in Miami-Dade County that were for sale in April”

    I suggest that when downtown Vancouver (which is a similar size to downtown Miami) has 22,920 unsold condos and another 20,000 about to be completed it is highly likely that our condo market will see a significant downturn.

    My only question is – when do you expect us to reach those numbers????? Right now we are only about 40, 000 units short of that dangerous scenario – very frightening!

  6. News Flash

    “Inventory in my target area dropped to 11,997”

    “Miami has 22,920 unsold condos and another 20,000 about to be completed ”

    “My only question is – when do you expect us to reach those numbers????? ”

    Well if we go by history…never.

    If we calculate it on the inventory continuing to rise as it has over the past year then we should reach that level in 2084.

  7. -A-

    Domus get serious. You can’t compare Miami with Vancouver.

    Miami does not have Commercial Drive, Rennie or Rob and Aaron.That’s just for starters.

    The beaches are not like Deep Cove are they?

    And if anything like what is happening in Florida, were to happen to the Vancouver market, Rob would see it coming and warn us on this blog.

    The Americans are new at capitalism, they tend to have boom and bust cycles, not us, we are Candians and we don’t have the fast talking hype machine. And we don’t have adjustable mortgages.

  8. Snick

    “…we are Candians ”

    Or, do you mean Candyasses”?

  9. Snick

    Geezer,

    I don’t think it would take that amount of inventory to shift the market. All it takes is to run out of “Greater Fools”. We are doing that already.

    And, you should see Florida. What a mess. EVERYTHING is for sale. I got back from there exactly ONE week ago.

    Their state tax revenues are falling, tourism is WAY down and residents are leaving the state.

    I remember saying, “Where is everybody”? Hmmm…

    We’re next.

    This will go down in history as THE biggest boom and bust in history.

    Yes. Here too!

  10. -A-

    Newsflash may have point. Even if the developers went nuts, it would take many decades to reach such a glut.
    But that is just an academic argument and hardly relevant, as everyone knows, we ran out of land just before Expo 86.

  11. Skeptic

    Just to bring everyone back to reality, the sell lists for the same time last year were around the low 60%’s. It seems like July ’07 will be a hotter month than July ’06.

  12. robchipman

    Snick: My target area is not the same as the REGBV. Its been discussed a few times and is a permanent link on this site.

    Median prices do get published by the REBGV, and are available in the monthly news releases (pretty accessible online according to Google), which are widely reported.

  13. Snick

    Ah, yes, that’s right. I remember scrolling down through those. I forgot about that. Thanks.

  14. Snick

    “But that is just an academic argument and hardly relevant, as everyone knows, we ran out of land just before Expo 86.” -A

    A,

    This is what amuses me. We had HUGE mega-projects in the Vancouver/BC area during the early-mid 1980’s.

    Didn’t do squat for the housing market, mind you…

    So, this stuff about the Olympics really makes me laugh.

  15. Snick

    “Just to bring everyone back to reality, the sell lists for the same time last year were around the low 60%’s. It seems like July ‘07 will be a hotter month than July ‘06.”

    So?

  16. Skeptic

    All this talk of doom and gloom is premature.

    Domus, thanks for the Miami story, quite interesting, I liked the part about Florida’s state bird, the building crane ! hehe

    So inventory of 20,000 condos and monthly sales of 600 condos = 33 months of inventory

  17. -A-

    What Skeptic forgets is that the sell/list ratios are for a specific hand picked area by Rob to suit the purpose, and doesn’t take into account the thousands of units in the Valley.

    Kinda reminds me of sports when I was a kid- the best player born on a Sunday, the best left hand player etc.

    How much inventory is really out there?

    How much is to flood the market, as interest rates rise, and the winding down of the Gov work projects come to an end?

  18. robchipman

    -A- : You’re so far off on this one that you’re reminding me of a childhood sports analogy too : the one where you’re out in left field picking flowers. Read the market area post.

    Snick:

    “This is what amuses me. We had HUGE mega-projects in the Vancouver/BC area during the early-mid 1980’s.

    Didn’t do squat for the housing market, mind you…”

    Again, this is one of those untruths that gets repeated. Click on the link to the June stats report. Go to the graph at the back. You’ll see that the real estate actually did very well in the ’80s, especially after Expo. Average price more than doubled in 5 years.

  19. Skeptic

    -A-: “What Skeptic forgets is that the sell/list ratios are for a specific hand picked area by Rob to suit the purpose, and doesn’t take into account the thousands of units in the Valley.”

    This is a pretty common argument by those who don’t like the facts, complain about the measurement technique. Rob’s area has been fixed for at least 12 months, that’s the reason why comparisons are possible.

    If you want to track Chilliwack RE, go ahead, start your own blog, its a free world.

  20. Snick

    Well, for the daily numbers, I think you should be relying on the ones provided by “Van RE Numbers”. (Google same)

    That should take care of any “discrepancies” between what Rob is reporting and what is actually listed.

    Also, there is no doubt that there IS a lot of other inventory out there.
    e.g.

    Builder’s sites that are not on the MLS and other
    FSBO’s

    (Visited Craigslist lately? Type in “Reduced” and see what happens…or try the Buy and Sell and your local papers)

  21. Snick

    “Again, this is one of those untruths that gets repeated. Click on the link to the June stats report. Go to the graph at the back. You’ll see that the real estate actually did very well in the ’80s, especially after Expo. Average price more than doubled in 5 years.” – Rob

    I was referring to the period prior to Expo. 1982-1986.

    In spite of HUGE mega projects, housing was in the doldrums.

    The real “kaboom” didn’t happen until late Spring 1989. Once again, it was happening not just here. But, that didn’t stop people from claiming that huge price gains were only in Vancouver because Vancouver was “special”. etc.

  22. -A-

    We don’t know who is buying and selling, we don’t know how leveraged are the purchasers.

    I will speculate the purchasers are amateur speculators mostly overleveraged.

    Rob, any stats on how many are FTB with 20% down?

    Any stats how credit worthy the buyers may be?
    Any stats how tightly controlled are verified the reported income?

    Any bets our sub-prime would make the American sub-prime look like Tripe A bonds?

  23. Coq_Mike

    Regarding inventory in other areas:

    In the Coquitlam area I can tell you that inventory is very tight and depending on your price point inventory is decreasing. Discouraged first time buyers and tired looking realtors seem to be everywhere.

    I was expecting to see inventory rise through the summer. Sales did seem to be calming down somewhat. However, given the past three weeks it looks like sales have increased again. Possibly this is the pre-approved mortgage people making their move.

  24. robchipman

    Snick:

    Snick, you’re grasping. We saw 5 distinct markets in the ’80s. 5 different outcomes. You can’t link that to one input (government mega projects). You’ve also ignored the idea that the spending may have come first and the dividend after.

    Van RE numbers, if they are REBGV numbers, don’t include FSBOs, or new properties not on MLS. They may well include areas that aren’t considered relevant by many. (Which isn’t a slam – more numbers are better, and more information is better. Good on RESteven).

    Skeptic:

    Its been well over a year. I track the area I have most investments in. I’ve done that since before the blog. REBGV includes, for example, the Gulf Islands, Squamish, Pemberton and the Sunshine Coast.

    -A-

    You’re speculating now? Say it ain’t so!

  25. tqn

    Coq_Mike
    Your post just spoiled Snick’s saturday morning. He only wants to hear “Miami condo flooding the market” kind of talk!
    Take a drive on the busy First ave between Rupert street and Commercial drive and count how many sold signs there are.

  26. tqn

    A,
    It is easy to answer to some of those questions. Try to get yourself a preapprove mortgage with a bank or lender and see how easy or difficult it is, have a chat with the mortgage officer, he will give you the answers. And the best part, it’s FREE.

  27. -A-

    TQN

    Thanks, for the suggestion, but I was hoping to get a reply from one of the highly trained professionals from the RE industry.
    But since you are on line…. Do you think if my bank turns me down, I may be able to get a mortgage from one of those places on King George Hwy?

  28. Snick

    “Snick, you’re grasping” – Rob

    No, I lived through it. You?

  29. Snick

    As for Coquitlam inventories, they have been fluctuating from between 475-490 for SFH’s. So?

    And there have been quite a few properties re-listed as “NEW!” because they have readjusted their prices downward.

    New listings are priced lower than they were several months ago and there are quite a few over 90’s.

    Coquitlam is not “on fire”, so try to be more accurate.

  30. Snick

    “Van RE numbers, if they are REBGV numbers, don’t include FSBOs, or new properties not on MLS.” – Rob

    I never said they did. Re-read my post.

  31. Snick

    “…count how many sold signs there are.”
    – TQN

    Old sold.

  32. tqn

    “Do you think if my bank turns me down, I may be able to get a mortgage from one of those places on King George Hwy”

    if your bank turns you down, you have to ask yourself why? I thought the banks are very hungry for business nowaday…No?

    ” And there have been quite a few properties re-listed as “NEW!” because they have readjusted their prices downward.
    New listings are priced lower than they were several months ago and there are quite a few over 90’s”

    They were over priced at the first place, that why they were not sold. What else is new?
    Overpriced listing can never be sold in any market, it’s a no brainer.

  33. Snick

    ‘They were over priced at the first place”
    -tqn

    Agreed. And they still are. However, what gave the sellers the notion they could even go NEAR those asking prices?

    Prior sales in their areas, of course. Simple.

    Now that has changed.

  34. robchipman

    Yeah, Snick, I was alive, had attained my majority and was involved (as an employee) in the real estate game then.

    I read your post. I didn’t accuse you of saying anything you didn’t say. Keep your shirt on.

  35. tqn

    “However, what gave the sellers the notion they could even go NEAR those asking prices?”

    the price that the BUYERS willing to pay an the sellers willing to accept. this thread, Rob posted 1.72% difference in average.

  36. Snick

    robchipman
    July 22nd, 2007 at 12:53 am
    Yeah, Snick, I was alive, had attained my majority and was involved (as an employee) in the real estate game then.

    I read your post. I didn’t accuse you of saying anything you didn’t say. Keep your shirt on.

    My my. Touchy.

  37. Geezer

    Snick said “I don’t think it would take that amount of inventory to shift the market. All it takes is to run out of “Greater Fools”. We are doing that already.”

    Hey Snick, you’re right – Vancouver is different!

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