Wednesday Numbers

There were 226 new listings Wednesday and 233 sales, for a sell/list of 103.10%. Of the sales 28, or 12.02%, went over list. 10 of those were on the Westside. 3 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond, 2 were in Port Coquitlam and 2 were in Port Moody,  1 in Maple Ridge, 1 in North Van, 4 Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby, and 1 in the Fraser Valley.

Average list price of the sales was $543,427: average sales price was $530,337, a difference of $13,091, meaning the average sale went for 1.60% under list price. 25 properties went for list price. One property went for 12%($700,000) under list while the highest over list was 17% ($78,000) over.

There were 18 million dollar plus properties sold, with 3 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

There were 95 price changes, of which 5, or 5.26%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $568,613; the average new price was $552,857, a difference of $15,756, meaning the average price change was -2.54%.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 12,095, while over 90s rose again, reaching 2,106, a percentage of 17.41%.

0.74% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list continued to recover, reaching 71.20%.

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49 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

49 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. robchipman

    Yeah deb, a trend is a trend until it stops being a trend. Trite but accurate, and this trend hasn’t stopped yet.

    I’ve got so much rental demand these days I wish I could find economical houses to buy, but the two things (high housing demand and high housing prices) seem to go hand in hand.

  2. tqn

    I had no idea about the rental market until reading the new blog this morning and learning about the pain that the prospect renters are going through.

  3. vanreal

    tqn, what new blog

  4. Johnnyrent

    Assuming there are some bears out there who need feeding, here’s a morsel: http://tinyurl.com/3b3htr

    What I find interesting is that “a return to a normal market” are the words coined by realtors in this inland California county to describe 20 to 30% drops in median prices in all county districts.

    Meanwhile in the Bay area high priced areas are continuing to sell well with continued, albiet modest, appreciation. Lower prices areas are on the other hand tanking. Shades of the Westside versus the Valley? We’ll see.

  5. Snick

    Well, as has been mentioned on this site before, Vancouver tracks SoCal RE etc. quite closely.

    Past booms, busts and subsequent recessions are very closely matched. So, although there may be a “lag” of some degree or another, we’re done.

  6. robchipman

    Snick:

    Its been mentioned on this site before, but I can’t say that its been verified.

    According to the BoC report, for example, we track Montreal, Calgary and Toronto more closely than we track LA. The same report indicates that LA and Riverside are much more volatile than Vancouver.

    The first problem with your pronouncement is: what part of SoCal do we track? LA? San Diego? Palm Springs? Indio?

    And what part is the “etc”?

    The second problem is how do you track something quite closely, yet have a lag to some degree or another? That’s a lot of wriggle room.

  7. Snick

    Of course, our piddly market is markedly “different” from all of the others, so we’ll likely be okay. (Te he)

  8. Snick

    Er, find ANY graph, chart, article, speech, discussion or dissertation about previous US recessions.

    “Strangely enough”, our recessions have always matched those of the US.

    Now, match that info with housing booms and busts in both Vancouver and, say ORANGE COUNTY (if you want specifics).

    Again, another strong correlation.

    We’re done.

  9. Snick

    Rob,

    The “etc.” refers to economic activity.

  10. robchipman

    Johnnyrent:

    I’m not sure if you’ve been to California, but comparing San Francisco vs Merced or Turlock to Westside Vancouver and the Valley doesn’t seem fair to me. I think a more accurate comparsion would be Vancouver to Merrit, or Kamloops.

    In terms of how a Realtor in California can call 20% to 30% drops in price a return to a normal market, look at how our market is described, (fundamentals out of whack) and then ask yourself what would we need to make someone like awum, for example, call the market normal. Would 30% do it? A house that generates $1500/month selling for $400,000 in Maple Ridge seems out of whack. Rent multiplier of 266. Drop the price to $280,000. The rent multiplier becomes 186, which is still on the high side, but acceptable. List/sells probably follow.

    Wouldn’t a market like that seem more normal, and more balanced? It would still be tough to get a lot of people to buy, trust me (sorry to pick on you again, awum, but would you buy at a 186 rent multiplier?)

  11. Dyugle

    Rob
    About completions according to CMHC there were 2261 in May and only 1388 in April. That is alot more work for the conveyancers. This looks like it may carry over for a couple of months. Expect alot of starts as the surge in completions will free up alot of construction resources. May starts were 1902 and April was 1428.

  12. robchipman

    Snick, if you want to say general economic recession, say it. If you want to say Orange County, say it. If you want to say a US recession will lead to a Canadian recession, say it.

    But if you want to say “Vancouver tracks SoCal real estate”, and then say “look at any graph to prove it”, again, I point to the BoC report on housing price increase/decrease durations, and maintain that your position doesn’t jibe with that study.

  13. Snick

    Rob,

    Why don’t you just give it up? You’re not impressing anyone with your smoke and mirrors.

    And as for Dyugle’s comment re: Merced, California…hey, forget about Merced. The SF nine county BAY AREA has reported a YoY sales decline of 27% for June.

    Is that more interesting to you?

  14. robchipman

    Snick:

    Not to put too fine a point on it, but where exactly in the BoC report are the smoke and mirrors?

    You say “look at any graph, chart, article…”, and I do, and it doesn’t support your position, so you default to personal attack. Classic!

    I’ll give you another soft lob: when this market changes, as it must, we’ll see lower volumes, because we can’t always maintain record sales volumes. But…I don’t know when that will happen. (Now you can cut and paste your “wise, always covering yourself” comment 😉

  15. el_bubb

    People in Bay area probbly have better credit scores and don’t have a need to borrow from subprime lenders… and its the high end of the market that we are talking about… which is almost like another industry sector for very rich ppl.. but they do have their limits…

  16. Snick

    Who said the BoC was offering up smoke and mirrors?

    Is that what I meant?

  17. Snick

    “People in Bay area probbly have better credit scores and don’t have a need to borrow from subprime lenders” – el_bubb

    I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.

  18. deb

    Dyugle Can you explain this please. I don’t quite grasp your meaning.

    Expect alot of starts as the surge in completions will free up alot of construction resources. May starts were 1902 and April was 1428.

  19. -A-

    “I’ll give you another soft lob: when this market changes, as it must, we’ll see lower volumes, because we can’t always maintain record sales volumes. But…I don’t know when that will happen. ”

    Wrong Rob, this market won’t give you such “hints”

    It will catch you experts by surprise.

  20. Johnnyrent

    Rob

    Been to California many times and to many parts of it. I think the higher priced parts of San Francisco proper versus the county of Sonoma or Napa is a valid analogy to Vancouver Westside and the more eastern extremities of the Fraser Valley. It is a fact that medians are holding or moderately increasing in higher priced SF neighborhoods whereas Sonoma is off roughly 20%.

    As to “normal”, you’ll recall the first utterances from the NAR, upon finally acknowledging a slow down, suggested that this would represent historical, average RE appreciation of roughly 4%. My point being is that “normal” in the RE industry seems to cover a very wide range of scenarios.

    Cheers, JR

  21. Snick

    Johnnyrent.

    Thank you for your observations. I have also been to California many times. As I mentioned in a previous post, I just got back from Florida. It’s a mess there and I suspect it will soon be as bad or worse in California. Then here. (Although I think it has begun)

    One does not get credit on this site for NOT being a schmoozy RE agent, by the way. I am sure you are finding that out.

    .

  22. DeeDub

    Comparing world-renowned Napa Valley to the hoochie-mamaville known as Chilliwack?! You cannot possibly be serious…

    Napa itself (not even counting the surrounding areas) has dozens of homes, representing a signficant percentage of the overall market, at over $2M. Chilliwack has exactly 1. And that one comes with a huge whack of acreage.

    I’m totally down with the “market has to change” premise, but comparisons like this are nonsensical. I can maybe – kinda – see comparing Napa/Sonoma to Thompson/Okanagan, though.

  23. News Flash

    “It’s a mess there and I suspect it will soon be as bad or worse in California. Then here. (Although I think it has begun)”

    “There were 226 new listings Wednesday and 233 sales, for a sell/list of 103.10%. Of the sales 28, or 12.02%, went over list. …the highest over list was 17% ($78,000) over…There were 18 million dollar plus properties sold, with 3 over $2 million.”

    It has begun? I guess it depends on your perspective of a mess. For you it is a mess (priced out?). For those long real estate it is…well lets just say not a mess.

  24. Snick

    “There were 226 new listings Wednesday and 233 sales, for a sell/list of 103.10%. Of the sales 28, or 12.02%, went over list. …the highest over list was 17% ($78,000) over…There were 18 million dollar plus properties sold, with 3 over $2 million.”
    – News Flash

    Well, here’s a “news flash” for you.

    Do you not think that the California market saw even more “spectacular” stats than the piddly ones you (or Rob) can offer up? And now they are experiencing the inevitable correction.

    And no, I’m not “priced out”. Far from it. I’m just not foolish enough to line other peoples’ pockets when I should be filling my own.

  25. Skeptic

    Rob: “Its been mentioned on this site before, but I can’t say that its been verified.”

    This is a common theme on this blog. Bears post a ‘trial balloon’ idea and if it doesn’t get shot down in flames within a day or two, it becomes a fact which can subsequently be built upon with even more fanciful arguments.

    Snick, there’s lots of anger in your posts today, maybe you’re not “priced out” but maybe you’re “stressed out” 😉

    How about linking some of these charts you refer to that prove your argument about Vancouver & Socal ? If its that obvious, post it here for us to see with our own eyes.

  26. Snick

    “Comparing world-renowned Napa Valley to the hoochie-mamaville known as Chilliwack?! You cannot possibly be serious…” -Dee Dub

    The Chilliwack area is not THAT bad. Don’t be so self-deprecating about where you live.

    B.C./Canada has many very attractive towns/cities.

    Don’t fall for any hype that US towns/cities are necessarily “beautiful” or are “where it’s at”.

    IMO, they aren’t.

  27. Snick

    Skeptic,

    Any charts are easy enough to find. Google “California Recessions” or something similar. Not that hard.

    Angry? Stressed out? Not me. Just tired of reading/sifting through BS, that’s all.

  28. News Flash

    “Do you not think that the California market saw even more “spectacular” stats than the piddly ones you (or Rob) can offer up? ”

    Yes California did very well and is still holding massive gains, higher than Vancouver in many cases. For example LA is still up nearly 150% over the past 5 years. Now LA is off about 2% from the highs? Hardly a crash happening considering the run up in the prior 5 years.

  29. Skeptic

    Snick: “Any charts are easy enough to find. Google “California Recessions” or something similar. Not that hard.”

    Sorry, haven’t got time to build your argument for you. If you can’t be bothered to explain why you see a connection between Vancouver and SoCal with the aid of links and charts, which you say are readily available, don’t be surprised when your point is dismissed.

  30. Snick

    “…don’t be surprised when your point is dismissed.” – Skeptic

    By whom? You? Don’t make me laugh!

    Don’t worry though, Skeptic, I am sure many others have learned something here tonight.

    And, News Flash…you’ll have to do better than that for an answer.

  31. coco

    One would expect sales to be higher given the recent rise in interest rates with another possible rate hike or two on the horizon.

    The real question is at what point do the affordability walls start to kick in as the interest rate rises?

  32. WoW

    Iadmit to being baffled by the continued heat in the market (sales volumes/price appreciation). Rushing in due to fear of rising interest rates? Dunno. No summer slowdown. I see a TON of homes/condos being constructed – but I guess they will keep on getting gobbled up by insatiable demand – or will they?

  33. -A-

    “One would expect sales to be higher given the recent rise in interest rates with another possible rate hike or two on the horizon. ”

    Looks like the 45 year mortgage will be needed for these folks when they renew.

  34. el_bubb

    Snick
    “People in Bay area probbly have better credit scores and don’t have a need to borrow from subprime lenders” – el_bubb

    I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.

    I’m trying to say that these who can afford are still able to buy.
    But the majority of population is pretty damn poor according to stats.
    The poor ones, or the ones with bad credit go with subprime mortgages while rich ones pay with cash or prime banks.
    When poor start defaulting on mortgages supply goes up and prices go down.
    So, the poor ones get hit first and the ones that are better of NEXT.

  35. Dyugle

    deb
    I am talking about construction.
    As a very simple example if there is only 1 person building houses. When he finishes a house then he can start building another.
    In May there were almost 1000 more completions than April. That means that starts will surge by a similar amount if the industry is running at near capacity. If the new construction (starts) does not surge you could say that the builders are predicting a downturn. This is not usually the pattern as the builders usually wait for the memo from the real estate industry in the form of lower sales and prices. That has not happened, as prices and sales are strong, so I expect that there will be a surge in starts every time there is a surge in completions.

  36. househunter

    Fact: higher %i and economic slowdown will initiate a higher inventory. Supply/demand will kick in. How poor the economy performs will influence how much inventory will grow.
    Fact: Ontario manufacturing is taking a hit
    Fact: people are still buying at these high prices
    Fact: Ozzy buys when everyone else cries
    Assuption: correction will come when the media begins to detail a cooling of the economy
    Guess: Our economy will slow when oil price comes down.
    Guess: Oil ain’t coming down
    Guess:I ain’t buyin a house this year cause a correction will that is coming will bring down my investment by over $100,000. No one can argue that. Nothing plateaus at a peak and look how much we’ve peaked in the last 24 months.

  37. tqn

    “And no, I’m not “priced out”. Far from it. I’m just not foolish enough to line other peoples’ pockets when I should be filling my own.”

    yes yes yes, everyone knows you have plenty of cash to buy, can afford to buy, but not buying because yada yada yada…What else is new!
    This is why vancouverites are rich…Everyone is not priced out, far from it. Everyone is priced in and even close to it.

  38. vanreal

    snick if you can buy and have chosen not to buy then great, but why are you hanging around a real estate blog.

  39. Snick

    Because I get a real kick out of reading the misinformation provided here, that’s why.

  40. tqn

    “Because I get a real kick out of reading the misinformation provided here, that’s why.”

    or is it because the information provided here does not satisfy/agree to your point of view?

  41. coco

    Probably for the same reasons everyone else is hanging around, checking the numbers, inventory levels, prices, what people are saying on the blog, market sentiment, etc., etc.

  42. Ymir

    As long as people are convinced a mortgage is not something that has to be paid back, 45 year or even 60 year terms are not gonna scare anyone away.
    The perception of debt has changed and as long as the payments are manageable, people will keep on jumping the bandwagon. It worked for everyone so far, didn’t it?

  43. robchipman

    -A-

    Miscommunication between us. I don’t mean that the market will give us hints before the change. At best we’ll recognize the change as its occurring. That’s what I mean when I say I don’t know when it will happen. If we were going to see hints then I would be able to hazard a guess.

    I mean that when the market drops, as it someday must, it will be characterized by lower volumes. Further, I think that we’ll see volumes drop faster and further than prices.

    Some may argue that plunging prices will result in, or go hand in hand with, rising volumes. If that happens (and its possible) I think it will be as a result of much larger problems, and real estate values will be much less important.

    Househunter:

    Not a bad position. The challenge still remains: when? When does the economy slow? When does that translate into a correction? How much higher will we rise before that happens? That’s not a knock on your analysis, but I think its the info we’d all like to have.

    WoW:

    Re: bafflement, I go back to the BoC report. One of its findings was that contractions respond well to stimuli (i.e., lower i% and get more economic activity), but that expansionary cycles are much less rational, and therefore harder to predict. They seem to get a critical mass or a mind of their own or whatever. Nature of the beast.

  44. robchipman

    Ymir:

    I’m not sure I agree that the perception of debt has changed on a widespread basis. I know that if a mortgage broker says to one of my clients “Go with the 30 year rather than the 25 year”, they tend to encounter resistance. (I’ve had buyers leave the market rather than go 30 years). That’s just my experience. I haven’t seen any hard numbers on the new longer amortizations.

  45. An

    Snick: “Because I get a real kick out of reading the misinformation provided here, that’s why.”

    I guess that means you spend a lot of time reading your own comments then 🙂 .

  46. Snick

    An
    July 20th, 2007 at 10:44 am
    “Snick: “Because I get a real kick out of reading the misinformation provided here, that’s why.”

    I guess that means you spend a lot of time reading your own comments then.”

    And, pray tell, what do YOU know about anything?

  47. Thanks for sharing this information. Really is pack with new knowledge. Keep them coming.

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