Monday Numbers

There were 285 new listings today and 171 sales, for a sell/list of 60%. Of the sales 28, or 16.37%, went over list. 13 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond, 1 was in Port Coquitlam, 1 in New West, 4 in North Van, 1 in Coquitlam, 1 in Burnaby and 1 in Surrey.Average list price of the sales was $557,919, while the average sales price was $552,839, a difference of $5,079, meaning the average sale went for 1.22% under list price. 17 properties went for list price. One property went for 12%($3,900) under list while the highest over list was 18% ($267,000) over . Average days on market to sale was 34.

There were 10 million dollar plus properties sold with one over $2 million.

There were 128 price changes, of which 12, or 9.38%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $655,484; the average new price was $637,198, a difference of $18,286, meaning the average price change was -2.28%.  Average days on market to price change was 53 days. 0.96% of all listings reduced their prices today.

Inventory in my target area remained at 12,141, while over 90s climbed to 2,065, or 17.01%. The 14 day rolling sell/list climbed to 68.30% today.

All commissions are negotiable, as we know, so there is no surefire way of identifying dicount brokerage sales.  That said, of the 171 sales reported today, less than 2% were listed by identifiable discount brokerage houses.  95 of the 171 sales (55.55%) sold for within 2% of list price.

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31 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

31 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. fish

    Rob- side point. How does the overall sales volume compare with last year.

    Seems to me talking to a couple of realtors, there are less comissions to go around.

    of course the top producers are still rolling in clover, especially with so many homes selling over $1 Million, but the mid-level guys I spoke to seem to be running harder for less.

    True or not?

  2. WoW

    Good Q – Rob seemed to be indicating the # of listings/sales per realter was pretty grim (due to the influx of agents – obviously the standard 80/20 rule applies, so the big guys are doing fine, and will be around, and the johnny come lately’s may find the going tough)…..

  3. tqn

    “so the big guys are doing fine, and will be around, and the johnny come lately’s may find the going tough)…..”

    i guess this applied to all professions, businesses, and not just real estate agents. I hope we are not cherry picking by any chance.

  4. WoW

    Not at all, does apply to most incentive driven professions, as it should….that said, when a market is hot for an extended time period, a lot of new entrants jump in, I expect the rule applies even more severely to them, expecially in the long run….Rob is a professional and I’m quite impressed with his knowledge – I’m confident he’s in the 20% camp.

  5. WoW

    20% making 80% (Rob), to be clear on my point above.

  6. V

    There are a some rotten apples damaging the real estate industry and the entire community.
    Help expose them.

    http://vancouverslumlordscumbag.blogspot.com/

  7. vanreal

    I believe it has alway been that way. 20% of realtors have always made 80% of the money. In fact I would venture to say that it is more like 10% of the realtors make 90% of the money and it is usually well deserved. I can tell from my own area which agents always get fast sales and which agents have properties sitting around forever.

  8. Domus

    Have you guys seen the latest California sales numbers? Down 30% on June 2006 levels and down 50% on June 2005 levels.

    Realtors must be begging sellers to lower their prices …….

  9. tqn

    “Realtors must be begging sellers to lower their prices …….”

    sale down, prices mostly up! why sellers have to lower their price?
    http://www.car.org/index.php?id=Mzc1NTM

  10. Noname

    Tqn said – “why sellers have to lower their price?”

    As Domus said it, because realtors are telling them to do so. No sale, no commision.

    Also, can you imagine the economical impact of such a large reduction in commisions being taken out of the economy?

    Noname,

  11. robchipman

    V:

    Something’s wrong with the link on your “V”name. Doesn’t work.

    Thanks for the other links. I like ’em.

    I heard Gregor Robertson talking about that balcony collapse as well as evictions in order to renovate. His solution seems to be provincial and government incentives to encourage landlords to maintain their buildings because current incomes don’t allow for it.

    You’ve gotta love that. Rent control so that tenants don’t pay too much, and tax subsidies so that landlords don’t pay too much. Who can lose when the government organizes the marketplace?! 🙂 To be fair, maybe Roberston has a new plan that will allow the government to control the economy so that we get just outcomes for everyone. We can only hope.

    Question for you, V: do you have the address of the building where the balcony collapsed? Is it a single owner or a strata building?

    (I love that you take a movie character as a symbol of rebellion against the Man. Makes me want to go straight to Starbucks and buy a pseudo-indy CD).

    Domus/TQN/Noname:

    I only wish that buyers and sellers would pay more or lower their prices based on whether I needed a sale or not. Sadly, in the real world, it doesn’t work that way.

    It also seems that the more volume of transactions, the more entrants to the market. The result, as we’ve seen from the numbers in the past, is that in high volume times there is often less business per capita than there is in low volume times. Many high producers will point out that in high volume times new entrants get their cousin’s, old work buddy’s, and mother-in-law’s house to sell. In low volume times the newby wouldn’t be around, so the high producer would gobble that business up.

    Rising prices do make commission income swell, mind you. The place that was $400,000 6 years ago is now closer to a million, which is nice. Still, even though official inflation isn’t keeping pace with prices, I find myself paying some horrendous bills these days.

    Noname:

    Who cares if sales volume drops, prices stay high, and some Realtors exit the business. They find some other way to feed themselves, and doing so will contribute to the economy. Capitalism works because of market imposed discipline. A Realtor is a business. If they can’t make it they should leave. That’s good for everyone.

  12. Noname

    Rob said – “They find some other way to feed themselves, and doing so will contribute to the economy.”

    Don’t you think that a 50% drop in sales in 2 years would not have a significant impact on the economy? Don’t you think that it would be quite difficult to absorb all those unemployed realtors? Especially, when the lost commisions they used to pump back into the economy will lead to even more people losing their own jobs?

    Also, Rob, do you think that a 50% drop in sales is not going to have a significant impact on prices? I know the prices haven’t been significantly affected, yet, so do you really think that from now on prices will simply plateau off?

    Noname

  13. News Flash

    “Don’t you think that a 50% drop in sales in 2 years would not have a significant impact on the economy?”

    No

    “Don’t you think that it would be quite difficult to absorb all those unemployed realtors?”

    No

    “Especially, when the lost commission’s they used to pump back into the economy will lead to even more people losing their own jobs?”

    Which people?

    Do the math.

    Total lost transactions x average commission = very little to the overall economy even if it evaporated. But it does not evaporate, the money just goes somewhere else into the economy.

  14. Johnnyrent

    News Flash, while far from bringing the Province’s economy to a standstill, a 50% drop in real estate sales would have an economic impact.

    To illustrate, legions of additional unemployed or barely employed realtors would tend to spend less on personal consumption. Home improvements related to dressing up the home for sale would drop. In a similar vein homeowners would be less inclined to borrow against home equity for home improvements. Some owners would feel somewhat less flush and would tend to curtail their own discretionary expenditures.

    These things are happening in many US markets, including those that haven’t yet declined very much in median price but which are experiencing a precipitous drop in sales activity. Check out the performance of and prospects for Home Depot, Lowes, Stock and others, and you can read all about it.

  15. V

    Thanks for the kind words Rob.
    The link was for
    http://vancouverslumlordscumbag.blogspot.com

    As far as the site goes we’ve had over 600 hits today which i find amazing consider it’s only the third full day it’s been up.
    Word of mouth really is powerful.
    I want to stress that not all landlords are bad, in fact most that i’ve dealt with have been totally fair and charged me even less because they realize the value of an excellent tenant. Someone who will LOOK after your place. Someone that lives clean and respectful of property .Someone that will call you if there’s anything negative going on in your building. I called a former landlord and ratted out the shitty contractor that was fucking him over. The savings on that alone made up for the fair rent he charged my wife and I.
    The real eye opener is the kind of landlord that is emerging in this tight market. This type of bad apple is growing in numbers and needs to be shut down.
    It’s as if they’ve all taken the same “Get Rich in Real Estate Course ” and are unleashing the screws into honest hard working middle class folks.It’s immoral and is hurting the city.
    It is so bad out there that i felt compelled to start the site and test the waters so to speak.
    I’m anti regulation but at the same time it’s a situation that i see spiralling outta control.
    I don’t know if clamping down on illegal suites is necessarily the right course of action if their built well and maintained by HONEST human beings and not shitholes scraped together by leeches.
    One thing i will mention is that the worst suites i saw we’re presented by foreigners.
    Maybe some sort of foreign restriction needs to happen.I’m sure there’s reasons why that’s a bad idea(especially if your a developer or real estate agent)
    Everyone has differant standards when it comes to acceptable cleanliness but blood stains on floors and rodent droppings are totally unacceptable as are rotting balconies and exposed wires.
    It would be nice if the government stepped in with a comprehensive plan to rectify this brutal situation. If not your friends and your family members will be swimming with the sharks.
    Feel free to do a post on the site. More content and traffic will lead to media investigation and maybe enough public pressure to change the course.

  16. Snick

    No, you are NOT off your rocker, Johnnyrent. Stay the course. Don’t let them try to back you into a corner with their goofy arguments.

  17. Skeptic

    Hey Domus:

    “Have you guys seen the latest California sales numbers? Down 30% on June 2006 levels and down 50% on June 2005 levels.

    Realtors must be begging sellers to lower their prices …….”

    Didn’t you miss something here ? One eye closed perhaps ?

    How about the other part of the story that prices are up 4.8%, read it here: http://www.car.org/index.php?id=Mzc1NTM

  18. Dave

    That’s 4.8% year over year – not much above inflation, and with a cooling market 4.8% YOY could well be flat or declining month over month. That’s a pretty scary number for anyone who’s been banking on rapid appreciation to make the numbers work.

  19. Johnnyrent

    Skeptic

    Here’s a paragraph from the article you linked to:

    In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 36.7 percent, or 136 out of 371 cities and communities, showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The top 10 lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)

    What we can gather from this, is that not quite 73% of California cities and communities did not experience a median price increase and several of them, from closer examination, experienced a decrease. Moreover, the same CAR has repeatedly been quoted as stating that median price increases are more a reflection of higher priced properties selling better than lower priced properties, hence, increases in median prices that are not necessarily indicative of average or PSF price realities.

    Remember that cheerleaders will continue to dance even as their team is losing.

  20. Skeptic

    Dave: 4.8% is double inflation.

    Johnnyrent: That old chestnut “median price increases are more a reflection of higher priced properties selling better than lower priced properties” is anecdotal. In any case, the only way to be able to compare is to use the same formula as previously.

  21. Priced Out

    At 4.8% its better to invest in a GIC or no/low fee mutual fund, when you consider all the costs and responsibilities of owning real estate (not to mention illiquidity.).

  22. Coq_Mike

    Priced Out said:

    “At 4.8% its better to invest in a GIC or no/low fee mutual fund, when you consider all the costs and responsibilities of owning real estate (not to mention illiquidity.).”

    Hey, whatever happened to buying at or near the bottom?

  23. robchipman

    No Name:

    The 50% is your number, not mine.

    Take the number of sales. Divide them by the number of licenced Realtors. Are they making huge money now? How hard would it be for them to find something else to do at similar compensation levels? It may seem heartless, but I don’t think it would be hard. Numbers indicate that incomes might rise for the remaining Realtors.

    Johnnyrent:

    I’m no expert, but I’ve read that the residential construction slowdown has not had the effect on the construction industry that was feared – capacity is being used in other areas like renos and commercial.

    That said, real estate is a huge part of the economy. I don’t want anyone to get the idea that I’ve said a crash won’t hurt (I actually said that if volumes drop but prices stay high it won’t be too bad, and I think that’s a fair comment).

  24. Domus

    Well, well: I thought supply and demand were still accepted as a fact in this forum. Does not seem so, though.

    We all know and have discussed in the past that prices are sticky downwards: if volumes have dropped by large amounts in the past 2 years, prices in real terms will have to tank. Nominal prices might tank as well, if inflation does not pick up substantially. If supply is much larger than demand in California, there is only one outcome I can think of in terms of prices, unless you can enlighten me with some new-world economics…..

  25. tqn

    “At 4.8% its better to invest in a GIC or no/low fee mutual fund, when you consider all the costs and responsibilities of owning real estate (not to mention illiquidity.).”

    there is not much responsibility of owning real estate. Try to own one, you would know what it’s like.

  26. Snick

    Well put, Domus.

  27. robchipman

    Domus, you’re talking about California, right? Because volume of sales is still strong here.

    Supply and demand can be thought of as facts, but they can also be thought of as aggregates measures of other facts. In other words, theory says that if demand drops relative to supply, prices drop. Most of the time. Until we introduce a measure of price elasticity/inelasticity (which is really what is at play when we say prices are sticky on the way down).

    So, when you say “I thought supply and demand were still accepted as a fact in this forum. .. if volumes have dropped by large amounts in the past 2 years, prices in real terms will have to tank…unless you can enlighten me with some new-world economics…..” all I can say is that “large amounts” and “tank” are not the most precise of terms (although fine for blog discussions) and price elasticity/inelasticity is not new world economics, while its effects will be the central issue in any market change (whether here or in California).

    (Note that I’m not arguing that RE doesn’t go down in price as a result of different pressures. The market does (and will) change).

  28. Snick

    (Note that I’m not arguing that RE doesn’t go down in price as a result of different pressures. The market does (and will) change).
    -Rob Chipman

    It seems like you’re always “covering” yourself for the future. Wise. Very wise indeed.

  29. robchipman

    Snick:

    Its not covering myself for the future.

    Its saying something, in print, on the record, that you’re not afraid to put your name to.

    You should give it a try 😉

  30. Snick

    I am quite certain this boom is over. Price declines will begin in earnest this fall.

    You?

  31. robchipman

    So, is Snick your real name then? An anonymous prediction isn’t too impressive, as I’m sure you’ll agree.

    I don’t see price declines beginning in earnest by the fall, because I’m not sure what you call “in earnest” or when you’re saying fall starts. I don’t see big drops in the near future, but I could obviously be wrong. Right now we seem to be absorbing the early July flood of listings, (based on inventory levels and recent sell/lists, which have twice topped 100% recently). Coming off a record June I’m thinking July may be better than we suspected, although not by too much. Remember last year July was pretty dead. That makes a good looking YoY easier to attain.

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