Friday Numbers

It looks like the lisitng rush has ended and staff can enter a few sales. There were 220 new listings Friday and 253 sales, for a sell/list of 115%. Of the sales 34, or 13.44%, went over list. 15 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 was in Richmond, 1 was in Port Coquitlam, 3 in New West, 1 in North Van, 1 in Maple Ridge, 1 in Coquitlam, 1 in Burnaby and 5 in Surrey.

Average list price of the sales was $526,619, while the average sales price was $517,001, a difference of $9,618, meaning the average sale went for 1.65% under list price. 35 properties went for list price. One property went for 35%($460,000) under list while the highest over list was 16% ($112,000) over . Average days on market to sale was 38.

There were 15 million dollar plus properties sold with two over $2 million.

There were 97 price changes, of which 9, or 9.28%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $531,630; the average new price was $517,255, a difference of $14,375, meaning the average price change was -2.55%.  Average days on market to price change was 48 days. 0.72% of all listings reduced their prices Friday.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 12,141, while over 90s dropped 1,932, or 15.91%. The 14 day rolling sell/list bottomed out at 64.72% Thursday, but climbed back to 67.90% Friday.

I’ve had a few calls from Realtors on listings that I’ve recently sold. I’m sure the sales reports have gone in, but the lisintgs still appear active.  The Realtors who have called have expereinced this on other listings. I think last weeks rush of listings slowed down sales data entry, meaning Friday was a sales catch up day, not a particulalrly hot sales day.  Mondays usually have higher listing count because of the weekend’s listing activity, but if the rush of the first two weeks of July has taken off the slack we may see sales numbers a little higher than they really are as more backed up sales data is entered. 

On the other hand, tomorrow may bring another big listing day!

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20 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

20 responses to “Friday Numbers

  1. ceejay

    I was wondering if the fraction of offerings that sell at list price is an indication of an “experienced” market. I’m thinking “out loud” but if the bulk, or a large proportion, of listings sell at list, then it seems reasonable to conclude that the market is very well understood by agents, buyers and sellers, and that, further, (and this is a guess) speculative pressure is low or absent (and the corollary, “seller desperation” is low as well. Any thoughts, Rob, others?

  2. robchipman

    ceejay:

    I like the idea, but I’d assume that the natural selling price of a property is somewhat less than the asking price. It seems completely reasonable to me that a seller expects to get a little less than what they ask and a buyer expects to pay a little less.

    We never see the bulk of sales at list price, and right now we see sales within 1%-2% of list. I don’t think that means we have a market where everyone understands values (although I wouln’t argue that they don’t obviously). I think it means we’re in a hot market (maybe not as hot as some past ones, but still hot).

    In other words, if the average sale was a reasonable amount off list (say 4%), and a large percentage of total sales (say 65%) sold between 3% and 5% of list, I’d think you could determine that the market had a pretty consistent idea of value. I’ll try to see how many sales are how close to the average.

  3. Anonymous

    It’s interesting that the active listings has hovered at around 12.1k for so long now. There must be a lot of expiries that aren’t re-listing because they cannot get their price. How else can one explain the below 100% sell to list ratio.

    More and more this will leave only the people who must sell behind right? Or is this too general an analysis?

  4. Coq_Mike

    I think that most buyers and sellers do not have a very good idea of true value. I guess this should not be too surprising given how often the average person actually gets involved in buying and selling real estate. This lack of experience and understanding must surely contribute to making the market a very confusing place.

    I know that I have made several costly mistakes in trying to understand true valve. Finding a really good realtor and actually listening to their advice is probably the best move the average person can make. It is amazing how many people fail to do this.

  5. Snick

    “Finding a really good realtor and actually listening to their advice is probably the best move the average person can make.” -Coq_Mike

    Did any of them predict such a huge runup in prices a few short years ago?

    Probably not.

  6. Snick

    And…if they had, why, jeepers, they’d all be billionaires by now!

  7. robchipman

    Snick:

    Even when you know the market is going to go up you’re limited in what you can buy. You either need a downpayment in cash, or you need to be able to borrow a downpayment and service the debt. And no matter who you are, you can only handle so much neg cash flow.

    So, did any Realtors predict this run-up a few years ago?

    I’m not sure many called for a run up that would last this long or be this huge, but a large run up was widely called (at least in my office).

    Did they buy?

    Yes. And they advised others to buy as well.

    Are they actually billionaires?

    No. Do the math. Say $100,000 down on three or four properties four years ago. The $100,000 is probably $400,000-$500,000 now on properties that carry themselves.

    Want to know something funny? Three and four years ago I advised some clients to buy, and they told me we were at the top. Jeepers is right.

    You asked, right?

  8. Snick

    What are those same realtors advising now?

  9. Coq_Mike

    Snick said:

    “Did any of them predict such a huge runup in prices a few short years ago?

    Probably not.”

    Well, I was thinking more in terms of relying on a realtor to help you set a good selling price or negotiate a good purchase price without blowing either type of deal.

    Now, I might ask my realtor to predict the future, but I would place a higher value on using his expertise to deal with current conditions.

    Usually by the time a person has teamed up with a realtor they are mostly ready to make move.

  10. robchipman

    Snick:

    You know what I advise. The Realtors I’m referring to are the ones in my office, and they advise the same thing.

    Time for an answer from you: do you accept that some people (including Realtors) recognized the trend and took advantage of it? Do you give those people any credit?

  11. Snick

    Of course SOME people recognized a trend.

    So, what is the current trend?

  12. robchipman

    Snick, I’m not saying some peple recognized it. I’m saying that I, and the people in my office, recognized it, acted on it and advised our clients on it.
    Mike alluded to the value in having a good Realtor, and actually listening to their advice. You sound a little dismissive of that value, but Mike is right.

    If you’re going to be dismissive of my past record (which was great), why should I bother sharing my views on the current trend with you? There’s little point in setting myself up for a slam.

    I’m looking for a little credit where credit is due. If you recognize the value of past opinions you might be a little less dismissive of current opinions. If you don’t recognize the value, what’s the point of sharing?

    With that off my chest, the current trend is easy to describe. Values are increasing at a slower rate than they have been, but they are conituning to increase. The rising market has not changed direction. Its pretty safe to say that, in terms of prices, 2007 will outperform most predictions.

  13. Snick

    “The rising market has not changed direction. Its pretty safe to say that, in terms of prices, 2007 will outperform most predictions.” – Rob Chipman

    Well, hopefully you will not be making the wrong prediction the same way as others did in the old VHB “Blasts From the Past” articles.

    Time will tell.

  14. robchipman

    There you go. You got the lob you were looking for and you did the predictable.

    Any old VHB blog readers’ predictions, for say, 2006 or 2007 you’d like to trot out? While many of them were calling for downturns, we were still buying. Again, any credit due there, seeing as we were right?

    And do you consider my prediction to be in the same league as 1981 era predictions? If you think its anywhere close, could you make a case for your position?

  15. Snick

    “…could you make a case for your position?”
    – Rob Chipman

    Hmm, where does one begin?

    1. Out of whack fundamentals?

    2. US housing crash/impending recession?

    3. Higher inventories?

    4. Less speculative demand?

    5. Buyer fatigue?

    6. “What goes up must come down?

  16. robchipman

    Snick:

    Put your thinking cap on, my friend. My prediction is, all in all, pretty conservative. We’ve already beaten mainstream predictions for 2007 price appreciation by a couple points.

    1) Out of whack fundamentals? C’mon. Gregor Robertson apparently wants tax subsidies to address that problem.

    2) US housing collapse/US recession: we don’t track the US national market, at least according to the Bank of Canada.

    3) Higher inventories? Higher than when? We hit 12,000 last October.

    4) Less speculative demand? I haven’t seen it yet. I’m sure its coming, but so’s Christmas, right?

    5) Buyer fatigue. As in “June was the second hottest June ever, second only to June 2005”

    6) What goes up must come down. Someday, yes, but generally not all the way to the bottom.

    The key question is: will any part of your scenario happen soon enough and markedly enough to make 2007 to a 180 and then start heading in the other direction at break neck speed? That’s what we need for my rather mild prediction to come close to ’81 era predictions. We need a 40%-50% drop for that. We’ll need about a 5% drop between now and the end of the year to not outperform 2007 predictions.

    On balance I don’t think you’ve even come close to making a case for your comparison to the ’81 era predictions.

  17. Snick

    Well, neither are you. So there.

  18. Snick

    Your predictions are based on extrapolation and wishful thinking.

  19. robchipman

    Snick, my prediction is based on the observation (widely accepted) that the real estate market changes more slowly than most other markets, that we’re ahead of mainstream predictions for 2007 already, and that the kind of meltdown we’d need to make my prediction laughable is unlikely to occur in time.

    The meltdown may still come. I’m not saying it won’t. But we’re in a hot market now, and the meltdown won’t, in all likelihood come quickly enough to reverse 2007’s gains.

    Already surpassing 2007’s predicted gains isn’t extrapolation. Its recognition.

    Recognizing what the market is doing right now and relating that to the clock on the wall isn’t wishful thinking. Its just judgement.

    When did you start calling for price drops? Can you remember that far back?

  20. Snick

    “When did you start calling for price drops? Can you remember that far back?” – Rob Chipman

    Well, since we have obviously entered some sort of “new paradigm” according to your 5:52 p.m. post, you, being the expert, should be telling us when “robust price appreciation” will end.

    What are you and other “folks in the office” saying?

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