Monday Numbers

I was still having problems with the home internet connection, so I’ve only got truncated Monday numbers.

There were 282 new listings Monday, and 138 sales, for a sel/list of 48.94%.  There were 92 price changes. 

Over 90s were 1873, while inventory hit 12,086.

On Friday the listings were 298 while sales were 209, for a sell/list of 70.13%

Going back 10 days the rolling sell/list is 59.76%  That includes the weekend, which doesn’t change the numbers, but it only takes us back to July 1.   The rolling sell/list is dropping, however.  Not long ago we were in the low 70s. 

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27 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

27 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. Domus

    Rob:

    Thanks for the catch-up numbers.

  2. Finance Phd

    Anybody interested in making money in Vancouver RE?

    Rising inventories, rising interest rates, lower sales, and the sky littered with cranes.
    It’s a strong “ buy” signal to me.

  3. mike

    Summer doldrums, right? This is typical for July.

  4. Coq_Mike

    I wonder what will happen to these inventory numbers when all the sucker priced properties drop off.

    In my area I have seen a real increase in these way over priced listings. Well, over priced in my opinion. Selling does not seem to be the number one priority for these sellers.

    The properties that are fairly priced to the current market are still moving well.

    I guess we will see how many people really have to or want to sell.

  5. WoW

    still think we see 13,000 this month…we’ll see.

    Rob, thanks for the numbers.

    WoW

  6. robchipman

    The REBGV reported increased sales in June. We were up 7.4% over last June.

    Total inventory is up 1778, or 17.7%, but new listings are only 1.3% higher than June ’06.

    The sky has been littered with cranes for a long time,which begs two obvious questions: what will we do if all this supply isn’t absorbed, and what will we do if it is all absorbed?

    This market may go down, and it might happen quickly, but as the board President observed, Vancouver real estate continues to be a good investment.

    Mike:

    re: summer doldrums, I dunno. Its supposed to slow down now, but frankly I’ve felt a bit of a pop. It may be the effect of rising rates/pre-approvals. We’ll see how long that lasts (last year’s summer doldrums lasted until what, New Years?)

  7. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Ya Rob, I just read in the paper about a bank that poled it’s customers with the question if they are happy they bought in and it was a resounding YAH!

    What a stupid pole. You ever tell anyone that you had a lousy vacation?

    Course if I was out on a limb with a 300K mortgage, my answer would be yes! I am happy and I would say to other’s, Buy, Buy, Buy…….if you don’t then I’ll feel like a dumb ass and you wouln’t be keeping the market prices up.!!!

    The bank should do a pole on consumer confidence with rising interest rates or a question of the like.

  8. -A-

    With interest rates still relatively very low, consumer confidence at an all time high, phenomenal job growth, and a prime location which is the envy of the world, along with projected explosive growth in the IT industry, which attracts the best and the brightest, (ecause of the lifestyle we can offer),it is doubtful, that will see this housing bull winding anytime soon.

    Well at least that was what the CEOs and the housing industry marketers were saying last year in USA before the meltdown started.

    Interestingly enough, this is probably the first time in history that the real estate market crashed during an economic boom.

    Wonder what will happen if there is a recession in the next decade.

    Naturally it can’t happen in Canada, btw has the market started to absorb the excess inventory in Edmonton yet?

  9. Strataman

    -A- said “Interestingly enough, this is probably the first time in history that the real estate market crashed during an economic boom” This is I think true, was reading the Atlanta Georgia real estate, same thing lots of jobs non existant unemployment and collapsing real estate. I actually think we’re in for some sort of differant economic model. Maybe all of us (bear and bull) are earning(saving investing) artificial non-existant dollars. I think the situation is global and has little or possibly nothing to do with local conditions.

  10. Anonymous

    Can any one verify if the following is true?

    The market is not absorbing anything. Increases in sales # doesn’t mean more properites are sold. It just means increased # of transactions. If the same properties are bought and sold 10 times in a month. There will be 10 sales, but the market hasn’t absorb anything.

    In a hot stock market, the volume of the transactions will increase, so does the turnover.
    It doesn’t mean new shares are selling particularly well.

    The real estates market could move up and stay up as long as the government is supporting it. Real estate develpers could hold their inventory and speculate several properites upward to drive up the asset value of the rest of their inventory. It has been doing it around the globe. It’s really is a matter of corruption + market manipulation rather than supply and demand.

    Right now, the government needs property taxes to support their Olympic real estates scam. Couldn’t anyone see this government, real estates developer “collaboration”.

  11. paulb

    lol! you’re kidding right?

  12. -A-

    “Right now, the government needs property taxes to support their Olympic real estates scam. Couldn’t anyone see this government, real estates developer “collaboration”.”

    I wonder if we shouldn’t all write to our MLA and ask for disclosure. We should be entitled to know if any of them are in the real estate speculation, flipping, or developing racket.

    There you go Rob, this might make your blog more interesting. Imagine if you facilitated such a novel idea.

    I know a couple of good programmers, that could put together an on line questionnaire the MLA’s could answer.

  13. The unthinkable"Renter"

    -A-,

    Hah if Rob goes along with your idea he will be bouycotted like what RE agents have done to 1% realty!!! I love that one.

    Nice try but c’mon now. Keep it in the circus.

    Rob does have to watch what he says.

    Oh and by the way Richmond has put a cap on property taxes even if property still rises.

  14. The unthinkable"Renter"

    As far as Richmond and taxes goes, they have the River Rock Casino, that has helped out allot.

  15. Priced Out

    “I just read in the paper about a bank that poled it’s customers ”

    OUCH!!! Aren’t banks always doing that?

  16. robchipman

    Unthinkable:

    You intrigue me. Aside from refraining from saying things that are stupid, defamatory or contrary to privacy laws or an agency relationship that I may be in, why do I have to watch what I say? Who exactly will boycott me?

    In regards to discount brokerages, are you aware that they pay people less to work with them? Imagine that you were a Realtor. My listings indicate that I’ll pay you 3.255% of the 1st $100,000, and 1.1625% of the balance if you bring me a buyer and we successfully negotiate a sale. The discount brokerage indicates that he’ll pay you $2500.

    If you’re doing the average number of sales you’re doing less than .5 per month. That’s the equivalent of what we call 1 end. You can get the selling end of my listing ($7,905 on a $500,000 listing) or $2,500 on the discount brokerage listing.

    Which would you choose, if you could only have one? Would you think of it as choosing the highest paying job or boycotting the lowest paying employer?

    Could you make it as a Realtor on $2500 gross per month?

    Note that I’m not saying discount brokerages are wrong. I’m just pointing out the challenge they face.

  17. robchipman

    Anonymous:

    When you say “…the government needs property taxes to support their Olympic real estates scam. Couldn’t anyone see this government, real estates developer “collaboration”…” do you mean that the municipal governments are collaborating with the developers, or do you mean the provincial government? 🙂

    I’m not sure if you’re aware, but it would be pretty hard to sell the same property 10 times in one month, even if you had a couple of willing, non-arms length transaction buyers. It would also be costly, as a property transfer tax would get paid each time.

    I’m also guessing that you don’t actually pay a property tax bill. Property taxes aren’t determined by how valuable your property is. They’re determined by what the municipality and other bodies (Transit, for example) need to run their show. The share that you pay is determined by the property value.

    -A-: You’re kidding, right? I mean, how could MLA’s keep real estate values, across the board, high? I can see how a local politician can buy land and then influence the vote that puts the highway through it, but those are isolated cases.

  18. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Perhaps you are stupid or you misinterpreted what I have writen.

  19. e

    -A-, wasn’t there some down price action during late 90’s to 2000? this was an economic boom (i.e. the end of the 8-9 year bull market (longest in history), with the infamous .com blow out.

    there was lots of money in vancouver at the time. all these startups and venture capital. lots of stock option millionaires. fresh grads 10 years ago were making easy 60-80k CDN + signing bonus + stock options, or $70-80k USD (@1.6 exchange rate), if they moved to silicon valley.

  20. Domus

    Unthinkable:

    name calling is a bad habit, which can easily drive out many people. If you disagree with Rob, which is fine, you should still avoid calling him stupid.

    Copy and paste his point and comment on it. It takes longer but it’s the way a conversation develops.

  21. Domus

    Rob,
    are you going to report sell/list and inventory tonight??

    I maybe an RE ignoranr, but that’s pretty much the only info I need at the moment.

  22. robchipman

    Unthinkable:

    A lot of people think I’m stupid. That may explain why your comment intrigued me.

    Seriously – do you think “boycott” is an apt description of what happens to discount brokerages?

  23. The unthinkable"Renter"

    With my experience allot of regular paid agents avoid 1% sellers.They won’t bother with them because the potential transaction commission is obviously low. It’s a social boycott, quite understandably.

    Hmmm, $2500 sounds like 1/2 the average family income in
    Vancouver Rob. And no not only agents but anybody else can afford Vancouver with those wages. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    BTW your not stupid, and you are a salesperson. As a salesperson, you do have to consider what you say.

  24. The unthinkable"Renter"

    Thanks Domus for your constructive comment. It was late and only had time for a short comment. BTW stupid isn’t so bad.

  25. robchipman

    Unthinkable:

    Not accepting enough money to pay your bills isn’t a social boycott – its a business decision. Working for less than your costs is plain stupid.

    $2500 gross income per month will not allow anyone to remain in the real estate profession without having a second income. Do the math. Out of $2500/month take a chunk for the broker, supply your own car, gas, E&O insurance, cel phone, advertising, webpage, extended auto insurance, your own benefit package, cards, mail outs, signs, etc. Can you make that work?

    I don’t think there is any serious question that a discount brokerage freerides on a more costly system, and as a result faces the challenge of making its perceived savings a workable alternative for the industry.

    As observerX pointed out on the next post, the key question isn’t the amount paid, but agency. I’ll post some thoughts on that later.

    I still can’t follow your point about watching what I say, aside from the obvious restrictions (I can’t violate agency relationships, libel laws or privacy legislation, and I don’t want to say anything that is obviously stupid). Aside from agency relationships, how does that make me different from anyone? For that matter, different from you?

    Yes, I’m a salesman, but that doesn’t mean moderate what I say in order to make a sale. I moderate what I say because I’m no longer 17 and I’ve learned a little about the world. In other words, I think we all need to consider what we say, or we have to remain anonymous and occassionally back the truck up. (Take a quick gander at this post – developers and MLAs propping the market up by selling the same properties 10 times per month? Is the moon full, or what?)

    I certainly don’t worry about being boycotted by other Realtors. That’s a bit of a stretch, imho.

  26. The unthinkable"Renter"

    You boycotted I don’t think so. But if you led a self proclaimed front that the market has reached it’s top and is over priced and due for a correction………and a CBC news reporter found your blog and mentioned it on the 6 o’clock news. Would that not stir some poo? 🙂

    I am sure you well known.:)

  27. tqn

    “The market is not absorbing anything. Increases in sales # doesn’t mean more properites are sold. It just means increased # of transactions. If the same properties are bought and sold 10 times in a month. There will be 10 sales, but the market hasn’t absorb anything.”

    If this happened, I would questione the motives of the stakeholders of the transactions. I dont see how they profit from doing it ten times a month yet the transaction cost is huge.

    “In a hot stock market, the volume of the transactions will increase, so does the turnover.
    It doesn’t mean new shares are selling particularly well.”

    but how is the stock trading fee compared to the real estate fee?

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