Month End Stats

At month end there were 9,240 licensees in the REBGV.  There were 14,093 active listings (how can the Tyee be so far off? Hmmm…) and 4,429 sales.  That’s 3.19 months of inventory, 1.5 listings per Realtor and .47 sales per Realtor.

May last year saw 12,218 active listings and 4,175 sales for a MOI of 2.93.

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35 Comments

Filed under Monthly stats

35 responses to “Month End Stats

  1. e

    hi Rob, are these diff #’s? i think by your #’s, May 2006 was ~9000 listings.

    May 2007 was ~12000 listings.

    thanks for your hard work!

  2. robchipman

    e:

    These are the REGBV numbers from the month end office package. No Surrey numbers, but you do have West Van, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Tsawassen, Gulf Islands. That’s the main dif between the two areas.

  3. awum

    The difference between the Chipman numbers and the REBGV numbers is a testament to the different market developing the further down the Fraser you go, maybe? You’ll note that FVREB’s inventory is up way more than REBGV’s numbers. A sign of change a-comin’ methinks…

  4. deb

    does anyone know what is happening on the Sunshine Coast?

  5. Anonymous

    Rob do you hold the same view as Ozzie Jurock in that location does not matter just the deal you get. If you don’t agree then what areas in the lower mainland do you see as being a good investment?

  6. Helen

    welcome back Robbie darling.

  7. Dkn

    Can someone tell me what kind of MOI is considered to be a slow market? I remember reading a comment from a post from a while back which gave some ranges of MOI numbers and what kind of shape the market would be in.

  8. fish

    Welcome back Rob- you had us worried.

    Dkn. 3.12 months is far from being a buyers market. It is probably stable to seller range I would guesstimate.

    For an extreme- in Florida, where there is currently some signifcant discounting going on (check out the craigslists for some FL cities) inventory is probably in the region of 9 months.

  9. Considering

    Rob wanted some discussion topics other than bulls vs. bears, so here’s one that I haven’t seen discussed yet.

    Why is there such a huge price gradient between the West vs East side of Vancouver? It seems a building lot East of Main goes for about $500K, while an identical lot that is a 5 minute drive to the West goes for about $1 million (the price of the house is on top of this). Obviously, its not commute times. The appearance of the neighborhoods often seems very similar. Is it quality of schools? If so, you would expect prices to precisely follow school boundaries, but I don’t see much of that. Can anyone explain the difference?

  10. Coq_Mike

    There is the U.S. market, Canadian market, and then there is the West Coast market. The thing I struggle with is how much different and for how long will this Vancouver market continue to be different from most others.

    Vancouver is the closest thing that Canada has to a San Francisco, which people have always been willing to pay more for. I know of many people from Manitoba who have sold everything and moved out here to retire. I don’t of any who are moving to Manitoba for their retirement years.

    Many new immigrants after completing their immigration requirement in places such as Edmonton and Winnipeg will go straight to either Toronto or Vancouver regardless of the cost.

    I thought it was interesting that when Microsoft announced their move into the city they made special mention of the attractive West Coast life style it offered to future employees.

    So, has Vancouver become over priced or has it been under valued until now?

  11. Coq_Mike

    Sorry for the duplicate post!

  12. mike

    Alright, he’s back! Phew!

    I agree the bull/bear debate is insanely boring, but the question of when and if the market is going to turn and how hard it is going to turn is a hyper critical discussion for investors who are looking to time the market.

  13. megatron

    Rob,
    I suggest you just post the numbers as an FYI but don’t allow comments. Instead make focused posts like the one mentioned above (east side vs west side price differences), or for example:

    1. Where do you prefer living/buying and why
    2. RE rules and regulations we may not know about
    3. Interesting sale stories we can learn from
    4. Any info for first time buyers! Scenarios and number crunching. Eye Openers.
    5. News on RE fiascoes like Riverbend
    6. Comments or opinions on new projects being built around town (or have been built already)
    7. Things you need to know before renting out your basement suite
    8. Buy vs Rent (uh oh!)
    9. How do condo pre-sales and assignments work and are they complete rip offs?
    10. When can a bank foreclose your property?
    11. Why do WestJetters care so much? Are they really WestJet owners? j/k

    Maybe allow one thread at the end of the month for the bear vs bulls argument. At least the argument will be based on monthly stats rather than daily.

    Just my opinion

  14. sutluc

    Coq_Mike:
    “I know of many people from Manitoba who have sold everything and moved out here to retire. I don’t of any who are moving to Manitoba for their retirement years.”

    Strange how that works. I don’t know any. I know some that would like to, but it isn’t financially possible for them. They would sell their homes in Winnipeg and be unable to buy here, so they don’t .

    I do know a few going the other way though.

    I work for a cross Canada company that has a lot of prairie people in management. What many of them do is retire fairly young and sell their homes here and retire back to whence they came, usually Saskatewan or Manitoba. They sell modest homes here and buy acreages with palatial homes there.

  15. Concerto

    What was the Tyee count ?

  16. As far as housing price gradients go, check out the high school boundaries map from the Vancouver school board:

    http://www.vsb.bc.ca/NR/rdonlyres/2CD5E0A4-FCA0-4872-B98C-9DBC4796C653/0/Vsbmap.pdf

    Its a great example of class-jerrymandering. For example, if you look closely at the boundary between Hamber H.S (a good school) and John Oliver (uh..not so good), you will see it follows a pretty straight line along Main, except for a little piece beside QE park. That little piece is a subsidized-rental complex. Its W of Main, but the kids there must be strictly East Van types, if you know what I mean.
    Part of housing price (although I can’t say in general how much) depends on proxomity to good schools. In most cases, just live on the wrong side of Main, and your kiddies won’t qualify for a school with a better rep.
    Cheers

  17. awum

    Forget the school boundaries, fellas. Parents are no longer stuck to their catchment areas. That’s why West Vancouver schools are seeing increased enrolment while in North Vancouver, where the population is increasing, enrolment is stagnant or falling. Live East of Main, send your kids to school just west of Main, its no big deal. Certainly does not explain a $500,000 difference.

    It’s a reputati0n for crime, traditional snob factor, frankly, and history, that draw that line. A few years ago (before anybody with an SUV, a mocha latte and a pair of skis would dream of living in the Main area) the difference at Main street was even bigger. It is still reflected in the home insurance business, I understand — rates go up as you cross Main, as well.

  18. e

    thanks for the clarification rob

  19. kfinancials

    Maybe REGBV’s numbers are skewed. Anybody know the formula REGBV uses?

  20. foo

    That’s the theory, Awum. The reality is that if you’re outside the catchment area, you go to the bottom of the waiting list. Only once all the kids in the catchment area have been placed, can you get in to the school. For a high desirability school like Hamber, there is a probability of 0 that you’ll get in if you don’t live in the area.

    Unless, of course, in the fine Canadian tradition, you know someone in the right place…

  21. tqn

    opps, almost posted it and foo had said it already!

  22. Hypester

    San Franciscio. San Diego Phoenix Las Vegas Orlando ? All have a strong retirement communities from across US and even some Canadians .
    Maybe not Seattle, but they do parallel Vancouver as well as WA state = BC.
    The market next door is now deteriorating. They assumed they were “different” up until now. They had Microsoft , clean air and migration north by all those Californians.
    Have a look at comments:
    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3062

  23. dkn

    Yes, more information for first-time buyers would be great. I’m a first-time buyer and I’m always looking for more information so I’m not going to stay as a full-time dreamer forever.

    And anyone want to comment on the interest rate increase?

  24. tqn

    I am just wondering what ones can expect a housingbubleblog to say?

    Re interest rate, the hike anounced today and another expected hike in Sept have already factored into the market since May; I think all eyes are on the Oct and Dec prediction.

  25. WoW

    Rule – why not just require all posters, bull bear or otherwise to be polite and respectful – if not, block them from posting – i for one enjoy the varied dialogue…

  26. Anonymous

    awum is correct there is no such animal as school boundaries anymore. the only catch is that there must be room in the school if you want to get in and preference is given to those who live within school boundaries. but that preference only lasts until about March and then it is anyone’s game. also very few schools turn kids away as they want the numbers to go up.

  27. robchipman

    Anonymous:

    I think location and quality of property are very important, but I think the numbers are also critical. I think you must understand that buying in Maple Ridge is different in two ways from buying in Van Westside: its different in degree, and different in kind.

    Its different in degree because you get better numbers, but it will still appreciate in roughly the same way as Westside Vancouver.

    Its different in kind because you don’t pay the premium, simply because Maple Ridge will never be Kits or Kerrisdale.

    At the same time, buying in Maple Ridge is waaaay different from buying in, for example, Saskatoon. MR has a much more guaranteed appreciation rate than Saskatoon, long term. That makes a difference. At a minimum the acceptable downpayment required to break even would change.

    In any location it is important to buy as high quality a property as possible. By that I don’t mean buy the mansion every time. I do mean that if you buy a bachelor suite, buy a nice one. Avoid three legged dogs when possible.

    Dkn:

    9 MOI would be slow. The fellow in Phoenix, Pat Thomas, says they have 12 MOI, and that list price/sales price differ to the tune of $40,000.

    Considering:

    IMHO Main Street has a huge psychological effect. West is good, east is bad. The fact is that there are many super neighbourhoods in East Van, and some have popped. Main, between Broadway and 33rd is the new Commercial Drive. The area between Hastings and McGill and Renfrew and Nanaimo has big prices and many,many renos of old houses that in earlier years would have just been bulldozed and turned into Vancouver Specials. But, until a bunch of Westside people move to East Van, the WS will demand a premium. Pyschological. I don’t think there are valid schoolconcerns (I know a lot of smart people who went to Tech or Britannia, for example), and its not commutes or shopping. (That said, peopel do believe that if you send the kid to a good school he’ll do better, and that translates into a more motivated buyer).

    Dkn:

    I don’t think interest rate hikes will hurt enough to put a serious dent in this market. The mortgage industry is proving very resourceful at getting the money out the door. I think they’ll keep that up. Dodge is caught between two fires right now: inflation and a high dollar.

  28. vanreal

    The difference between eastside and westside
    I believe is to a large extent historical. The eastside was viewed and still is by many to be a working class area while the westside was where the professionals and business people lived. this has really changed over the last few years as professionals are being priced out of the westside and still want to live in the city. The media however still plays up the difference. The westside is always referred to has Vancouver while the eastside is always referred to as East Vancouver. A subtle message. I believe that as the gentrification moves east and it will then the distinction will slowly die but it may take a generation. You can still get way more house for you dollar on the eastside and the neighbourhoods are often friendlier. I have lived both east and west and I would never go back to the westside but I wouldn’t have said that 5 years ago.

  29. paulb

    GVRD last 7 days 1510/892 ….so…. 59% LS

  30. Domus

    There is only one number that I would like to track lately: it is the inventory.

    Rob, can you give a short time-series of what happened to it in the past 7 days?

    If I remember correctly, it dropped below 12k at month’s end in June. What happened in the first 10 days of July?

    Paulb:

    thanks for the pointer. If that’s true, it means we are witnessing a big slowdown in sell/list and a build-up in inventory.

    I am getting a bot lost now: we are not getting the same numbers as before, so it is difficult to compare months and evaluate trends. How can we talk about facts?

  31. researchguy

    Love the blog – thanks for the numbers. A question: it’s my sense that the RE market is filled with a lot of anecdotes about supply and demand, who is buying, who is selling etc. but very little in the way of hard evidence. Is this a good read, or is it just proprietary info that is closely held? And if there is a research gap, why is this the case….is there not a demand for solid market dynamics info?

  32. deb

    I also would love the numbers missing. it really helps me keep track. Thanks

  33. An

    East/West is similar to VW/BMW, both meet the basic ‘needs’ but you pay a steep premium for minor improvements/luxury’s..

  34. whybuywhenucanrent

    East vs. West. How about traffic? Pay a premium to be west of Granville, since there’s no through traffic to suburbs, truck traffic to US, etc. It’s quieter, the air is better, it’s really an unusual neighborhood for a North American city.

    Doesn’t explain why the difference between Fraser and Cambie is so sharp, but that’s a practical reason why folks would pay more to live on the West side.

  35. robchipman

    wbwycr:

    You’ve got to be kidding. How about north of Hastings, west of Boundary and east of Cassiar? No through traffic, excellent views, great location. (Just one example).

    Truck traffic to the US? Maybe if you’re on Fraser. What about 2nd/4th ave, just south of False Creek? What about Granville Street, south of 12th? Its a freeway by another name!

    Westside is all about “creme de la creme” 🙂

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