Wednesday Numbers

There were 219 new listings today and 166 sales, for a sell/list of 75.80%. Of the sales 18, or 10.84%, went over list. 5 of those were on the Westside. 2 were in East Van, 2 were in Richmond, 1 in Port Coquitlam, 7 in North Van, 1 in Coquitlam and 1 in Burnaby.

Average list price of the sales was $537,136, while the average sales price was $529,245, a difference of $7,891, meaning the average sale went for 1.37% under list price. 25 properties went for list price. One property went for 9%($119,000) under list while the highest over list was 13% ($150,000) over . Average days on market to sale was 37.

There were 13 million dollar plus properties sold with two over $2 million.

There were 93 price changes, of which 7, or 7.53%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $640,518; the average new price was $612,178, a difference of $28,339, meaning the average price change was -2.51%. One property had its price reduced 40% ($999,900) while another had its price increased $2.00 (to a list pric ending in 8)! Average days on market to price change was 50 days. 0.69% of all listings reduced their prices today.

Inventory in my target area stayed at 12,410 while over 90s dropped, reaching 2,178, or 17.55%. The 14 day rolling sell/list continued to climb, reaching 71.47%.

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39 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

39 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. passerby

    I predict that the inventory will go down to 12100s in the next 3 to 5 days. 😉

    By the way – Riverbend builders (CB Development) had their license revoked. This was on 1130 am today.

  2. Domus

    Yes, drop in inventory happens inevitably at month’s end. It will pick up big time in June (my prediction).

  3. deb

    Okay I will ask this question again, as I slipped it in too late last night.

    Is it normal to go into the summer months with so many properties listed? Who buys in the summer?

    What do you predict?

  4. passerby

    Domus: did you mean July ?

  5. An

    Prediction: During the summer, a lot of expiries.. re-listed in the spring when there’s another boom. I don’t think many sellers are disparate to sell, they’re just ‘feeling’ out the market…

  6. Domus

    Yes, I meant July.

    Sellers are not desperate to buy (…yet). We’ll get there.

  7. Domus

    Sorry, too many typos today: I menat sellers are not desperate to sell…..

  8. vomitingdog

    Seattle and Portland are bucking the trend in the US. Prices are up. Seattle 9.6% y-o-y, Portland 6.4% for the same period. I can’t find any evidence of house price correction in San Francisco area. Is this a West Coast anomoly that will persist? Any comments on these figures:

    ttp://www.cnbc.com/id/19457658

  9. chip

    For a better indication of what’s happening in Seattle and Portland see this graph through April 2007.

    http://tinyurl.com/2wfryt

  10. vomitingdog

    Funny. We’re both quoting from the same source. I guess the house price increases are slowing by by no means over. Is that correct?

    From Shiller:

    “A review of the decline in home price returns on a regional level shows no region is immune to the weakening price returns,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “While regional economic fundamentals may be keeping cities like Portland(1), Seattle and Charlotte in positive territory, they have not curbed their diminishing returns. For example, Seattle reported annual returns of 9.6% this month compared to the 17.8% reported for April last year.

    Friends down there tell me it’s still a sellers market with bidding wars and losing out on properties they wanted to buy.

  11. An

    “Sellers are not desperate to sell(…yet). We’ll get there.”

    I agree we’ll get there.. but when?

    Reminds me of a family friend 2 years ago. The son purchased a place even though his father tried to talk him out of it as he was convinced the market was going to turn. A year and a half later the son called the father and said “It’s a good thing I didn’t listen to you or you’d owe me $100,000” …

  12. awum

    My bold prediction:

    June 2007 sales in Rob’s area will be a couple of % less than June 2006. After end-of-the-month expiries, we’ll have 12,100+ listings going into July. By the end of July, we’ll be cracking 4 months of inventory.

  13. awum

    Dang, I just tried to post a comment about how we seemed to have stopped comparing Vancouver with San Francisco and are going with Seattle instead (San Francisco prediction at minus 8.9% growth this year. Maybe that’s why?). Lots of yummy stats. It didn’t stick.

  14. awum

    An – Let’s all hope that the father has a future opportunity to teach his ungrateful whelp a lesson in manners!

    🙂

  15. crasher

    v’dog

    Seattle may have missed the first wakeup call, but judging by their recent inventoty explosion, there’s not much doubt that they got the message. (inventory has surged from 10,827 in January to 17,966 by June 20)

    Don’t know about San Francisco, but here’s what’s happening a mere 100 miles to the north east:
    http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com

  16. Domus

    “I agree we’ll get there.. but when?”

    Not that soon. If you are expecting a rout within 12 months, you are going to be disappointed. it will take at least 30 months for nominal prices to recede, if we go by experiences elsewhere.

    This does not mean that there are no advantages for buyers: the stock of inventory will go out quite a lot in the next 12 months. Bidding wars will become a thing of the past. Prices, although not dramatically lower, will be more negotiable. There will be less pressure to conclude transactions and better choice.

    All in all, buyers who wait will get better value for their money simply because they will have more inventory to choose from.

  17. crasher

    Brave prediction Domus.
    The downturn could take even longer, but it’s amazing what can happen when a bit of panic sets in.

    Here’s what happened in the past:
    1981 – 41% drop in 13 months
    1990 – 21% drop in 8 months
    1996 – 19% drop in 5 months (yes, 5 months)

    It should be noted that the market had languished for years after most of those sharp drops.

  18. tqn

    “I agree we’ll get there.. but when?”

    I dunno…we will or we will not get there, but dont blame me if we dont get there! But I am saying we are getting there!

  19. Domus

    tqn,

    are you allright mate? Bit too much to drink? I did not get your last post, but then again it was not much easier to get the others, either…..

  20. Dog_Eating it's Vomit

    I like inventory, makes me all rosey 🙂

  21. Puppo

    “Seattle and Portland are bucking the trend in the US. Prices are up.”

    Sorry, but that is not true. There are newly built and 50% Vacant brand new appartment complex in bellingham. The builder has just slash prices by $20,000 and paying $5000 cash twords closing costs. Another building has reduced prices by $10,000 and there is room to negotiate. A 1/3rd Acre lot with a small cabin by ocean is for sale @49,000. Seattle to bellingham corridor is full of bargains right now. Some of the builders are even adding Vancouver Olympics to thier sales pitch.

  22. wizardofozziejurock

    According to these stats for Seattle: http://tinyurl.com/248hjo

    … YoY asking prices are pretty well flat. YoY Inventory is way up….approx. 50% increase

    We’ve seen this in other US markets where median sale prices continued to show yoy increases long after the market turned. Some of the reasons given (I’m not saying they’re all valid):
    – upper end housing fares better than the lower end at first
    – incentives, concessions and giveaways allow sellers to get a sale without lowering their selling price
    – price increases were so extremely high in the previous year that it takes many months of declines to actually show up as a YoY negative.

    On that last point, that’s either a testament to the strength of the market or the stupidity of the market depending on how you choose to view it.

    Note also that there seem to be a group of communities that have benefitted from the exodus of homeowners, speculators, etc. who have left the deflated cities for either a) a less expensive homes or b) a rental properties with lower p/e ratios.

    It appears Charlotte N.C. and Austin are two of these, and very likely Portland, and quite possibly Seattle. For example, it’s much less of a stretch to go from the Bay Area to Seattle than it is to go to Austin.

    And yes, Seattle/Portland were late to the game, and didn’t see the same level of appreciation as some of the more bubbly regions. And yes, Seattle’s appreciation has been well behind Vancouver’s.

  23. awum

    I think you are right Domus, but since you have appealed to history…

    According to Sauder school of business, since 1976 and as of 2007 Q.1 in “real” terms (i.e., controlled for inflation): There have been 51 quarters in which real estate in the Vancouver CMA has lost value YoY and there have been 73 quarters in which real estate has gained value YoY (we have now had 21 such quarters in a row, the longest such “winning streak” since 1976).

    The worst YoY drops were in 1982 and 1983 of course, but drops in 1985, 1991, 1996 and 1998 were also pretty bad (-9% up to -32%). Most of these quarters hit back to back, after a period of growth.

    There were also 34 quarters in which real estate was at a loss 5 years later, and 22 quarters in which the average price ten years later was still lower. Again, in “real” terms.

    All of these numbers are based on benchmark SFHs (i.e., detached). Historically, the return on condos (despite performance in the last two to three years) has actually been lower. While the overall market may move like you say, some segments may suffer a worse fate. I would not want to be looking at buying a condo in Whiterock, for example…but that’s just me.

  24. Fozzie

    Rob, you commented a little while back that the recent increases in mortgage rates may lead to a short-term “bump” in sales. I believe the rationale was that some buyers would be motivated to take advantage of their lower pre-approved rates before they expired.

    Based on your analysis of the stats, have you noticed any such bump so far?

    As always, thanks for the numbers.

  25. robchipman

    Fozzie:
    I haven’t noticed the rate hike fear bump based on stats (mind you, rates haven’t climbed all that much yet), but I just finished meeting with a buyer who is afraid of rising rates.

  26. tqn

    “are you allright mate? Bit too much to drink? I did not get your last post, but then again it was not much easier to get the others, either”

    of course you did not get my last post – didnt expect you to get it anyway, because that what the bearish side sounds like in the past few years.

  27. Cyber Pilot

    Rob, what a following you have. Yesterday you had Paris Hilton, a fake from New Westminster area, but the poster “Socal Investor” is legit. Shows up as a San Diego IP address!

  28. Snick

    Vomitingdog,

    Seattle is not in the same league as Vancouver. Never will be. It is just “another” US city. (read: Omaha, Billings, Sioux City)

    They are just late to the party, that’s all. Prices will eventually correct there as with other US “hot spots”.

  29. chip

    “Seattle is not in the same league as Vancouver.”

    BC’s population is 4.3 million and its GDP is CAD180 billion.

    Wash. State’s population is 5.8 million and its GDP is USD280 billion.

    Seattle is the HQ for Costco, Starbucks, Amazon, Microsoft and Boeing.

    Vancouver is the HQ for Robeez shoes.

  30. $fromA$ia

    Vancouver has the head quaters of the first, “Organized Sqeegy Workers Union of North America”!!!

    BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!

  31. Johnnyrent

    Snick and Chip

    You’re both right. Economically, WA is and has always been a bigger force than BC as is the Puget Sound versus the Vancouver Lower Mainland. Mind you, we are far more important to Canada than Seattle is to the USA.

    In terms of frothy RE markets and our respective areas’ desireability for a place to live in the world view, we come out on top on both counts. We are also far more developed as a downtown core, with 80,000+ residents versus Seattle’s 5,000 or so living in the core. Actually, on that score we’re second only to Manhattan in terms of downtown residential population (Mexico City excepted).

    Seattle is, as others have pointed out, late to the proverbial party. Late, yes, but they’ll still get an invitation, and their correction will be in consistent with their run-up, which has been modest compared to other, more frothy US metro areas.

    We, on the other hand, have been noted by more than one international economist as one of the most frothy, if not the most frothy markets in the continent. If history is any guide, the ride down will be as tumultuous as the ride up.

  32. Domus

    Well put, Johnnyrent…..sometimes I think you might be VHB’s illegitimate child!

  33. Chris

    Hi Rob, how do you determine the average price change, isn’t it 28,339/640,518=4.43%. Thanks for all your hard work and numbers.

  34. robchipman

    Chris:

    That’s an interesting question, and I’ll explain what I do and see what the feedback is.

    I take each new price and subtract the original price. That’s generally a negative number (most changes are reductions). I then have excel average those numbers. Its usually, but not always, the same as the average original list price minus the new list price, which, of course, are simply excel averages of the respective columns. I also take the difference between each price change and do the division to get a percentage. I get excel to average those as well. I end up with 4 columns of Excel generated averages.

    As I say, there are some differences. The new average list price minus the old average list price should be -28,340, but Excel averages it to 28,339. Do the percentage with those numbers and you get 4.63. Have Excel average the column and you get 2.51. (It goes both directions – Thursday’s numbers are 1.73% if averaged by Excel and 0.19% if you divide the average difference by the average original list price).

  35. Snick

    Well said, Johnnyrent. My sentiments and MORE!

  36. vomitingdog

    I think it’s valid to compare Vancouver to other Westcoast cities. Especially when all Pacific Northwest cities (I’m including Vancouver in this) have not been greatly affected by the US bear market in housing.

    I don’t consider Sacramento a fair comparison. We were there last summer and it’s a ginormous desert where they can and have expanded the city in every direction. Bellingham is not a comparable for me either. It’s a nice backwater with 2% unemployment but it’s not a real hot locale when it comes to RE.

    Whereas San Francisco, Portland, Seattle and Vancouver are different because developing their central areas are somewhat hampered by geography, city planning guidelines etc. And yes, I know that this point is not equally true for each city.

    I just think it’s interesting to ask if the West Coast and other cities like London and New York are “detaching” from the market in their countries? It’s not me who has thought of this but journalists in the UK and New York. They too are perplexed by London’s lack of responsiveness to a long series of rate hikes. I have no doubt Vancouver will correct but will it really correct by anything more than 10%?

    Being an ex-Montrealer who grew up thinking that real estate prices come in 10-year cycles of boom and complete and utter bust, it took me a long time to get used to what constitutes a “downturn” in the market here. I waited and waited for a Montreal-style bust but it never came and maybe never will. Possible?

  37. chip

    “We are also far more developed as a downtown core, with 80,000+ residents versus Seattle’s 5,000 or so living in the core. Actually, on that score we’re second only to Manhattan in terms of downtown residential population (Mexico City excepted).”

    I’m not sure why you’re comparing downtown cores. No one mentioned downtowns, and the run-ups have applied to downtowns and suburbs alike in both cities.

    The GVRD has a population of about 2.2 million people. The Seattle metro area has about 3.3 million.

    Further, the population growth is comparable. Seattle’s population growth last year was 1.3%, the fastest in 40 years. Vancouver’s population grew 6.5% in the last 5 years.

    The initial comment was that Seattle wasn’t in the same league as Vancouver. And that’s true. In terms of employment and income Seattle is clearly superior.

    And in terms of population and population growth Seattle is either the same or ahead.

    It is only regarding house prices that Vancouver comes out on top. But being on top for housing prices and on the bottom for income and population is not a dichotomy that inspires confidence.

  38. Snick

    Vomitdog,

    Vancouver is in the Pacific Southwest.

  39. Skeptic

    Snick, you should broaden your horizons and check out a map. Vancouver is in SW Canada, if you want to talk about the Pacific, you need to be south of the Equator to call it south.

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