Thursday Numbers

There were 255 new listings today and 265 sales, for a sell/list of 103.92%. Of the sales 31, or 11.70%, went over list. 9 of those were on the Westside. 7 were in East Van, 2 were in Port Coquitlam, 4 in North Van, 2 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam and 5 in Burnaby.

Average list price of the sales was $553,957, while the average sales price was $543,924, a difference of $10,033, meaning the average sale went for 1.68% under list price. 22 properties went for list price. One property went for 12%($41,000) under list while the highest over list was 11% ($132,000) over . Average days on market to sale was 38.

There were 26 million dollar plus properties sold with three over $2 million.

There were 165 price changes, of which 47, or 28.48%, were increases (more increases than over-lists). The average original list price of price changes was $635,801; the average new price was $634,573, a difference of $1,228, meaning the average price change was -1.73%. One property had its price reduced 29% ($100,000) while another had its price increased $708,000(22%).  Average days on market to price change was 53 days. One property has been on the market 528 days (yes, its the one with the big increase!) 0.96% of all listings reduced their prices today.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 12,343 while over 90s rose, reaching 2,188, or 17.73%. The 14 day rolling sell/list continued to climb, reaching 73.92%.

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47 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

47 responses to “Thursday Numbers

  1. Domus

    …and so, one more month is ending on this blog. The inventory is still above 12k. Expiries are happening and pushing up sell/list, same old same old……

    Prediction time again: where will we be with inventory in 20 days from now? I venture a 12,750.
    Any takers?

  2. deb

    hoo boy. What will July hold? I am getting tired of being patient. Still I will venture one month from now at
    12950

  3. mike

    Inventory will increase by 678 so we’ll have 13021 by the end of july.

  4. CheapMan

    I will go for 13331.

  5. kfinancials

    Let’s get those pre-approve rates used up before they expire.

  6. Skeptic

    Domus: “Expiries are happening and pushing up sell/list”

    Domus, how exactly do expiries figure in sell/list ?

  7. M-

    kfinancials “Let’s get those pre-approved rates used up before they expire.”

    Yup, that’s about what I think we’re seeing here. Many months ago I was preapproved for a low 5-year rate. My mortgage broker called me up a few days ago to remind me that my preapproval was still valid until Aug 10.

    My realtor also called me up to let me know that her boss sat down with everybody in their office, and from some “insider” information they have, they figure that mortgage rates are going to go right back down soon. As will the bond market. Oh, and the Bank of Canada won’t raise rates because it will “hurt too many people”. Yeah. All’s merry.

  8. WoodenHorse

    M- One thing that worries me is that the BoC may not raise rates because they don’t want our dollar to go much higher (in fact I can see them thinking about cutting it). A low dollar “helps” the economies in every section of this country, from coast to coast. Both the resource sector and the manufacters.

    While I, like many of you, am a bubble sitter and would like the crash start soon, I do take comfort in these high sales numbers. These FBs buying today won’t be a buyer I have to compete with when I buy.

    If I have to wait out a bubble….let’s make it a doozie.

  9. An

    “While I, like many of you, am a bubble sitter and would like the crash start soon, I do take comfort in these high sales numbers. These FBs buying today won’t be a buyer I have to compete with when I buy.”

    I am happy and content in our current house so am neither looking to sell or buy, I just like to follow real estate.. kind of like following the NHL stats when I’m clearly not going to be playing for the NHL 🙂 ..

    What I’m always curious about is these people hoping for a crash before they buy. How do they picture it working? If prices start going down when do you buy? How do you know know the ‘crash’ has stopped or when it will go back up? Isn’t it very similar to what is going on now, only you buy and hope the market will stop going down, instead of now where people buy and hope the market will keep going up?

    I just don’t see how this “crash” will help people make a safe investment or how waiting until then will make buying any easier/safer. Could some explain their line of thought to me?

  10. Ron

    Times my be changing but my understanding of the situation is that the B of C is more concerned with inflation and does not concern itself with any particular sector of the economy.

  11. awum

    I just don’t see how this “crash” will help people make a safe investment or how waiting until then will make buying any easier/safer. Could some explain their line of thought to me?

    For most it starts not with investment per se; it starts with value and affordability. Even an upper-middle-class professional with 90K per year salary and modest savings can only buy maybe a 360K home. I say “only” because right now, that buys crap in the current market.

    As Rob has said many times, go ahead and buy real estate when you can buy something you can live in and hold. If wages were keeping pace with home prices — or even lagging less than now — that might be OK and might even sustain a market long term. But it is pretty simple math (yet ignored by many) that every time home prices outstrip wages, you trim away yet another group of potential buyers from your pool.

    Now, if you thought the last five years will be repeated over the next five, you might happily buy something less than you’d like, and count on appreciation to build you enough equity to move up. I know a few folks who are 100% sure that is going to happen. I just smile and nod.

    The way I see it we have seen a short term supply/demand imbalance, leading to an unprecedented run-up in prices. First-time home ownership (for me at least) is an absolute rip-off right now in the Lower Mainland, plain and simple. A mug’s game.

    There may not be a “crash,” as much I’d welcome one so that I could afford a decent piece of property on my current salary. Even if there isn’t, my savings are growing well, I’m working my way up the corporate ladder, and there is a new lady in my life with her own career, so who knows? I may be in a different position say, two years from now, and even a modest correction might change the picture in the market. I don’t have to wait for it hit bottom, I just have to wait for the numbers to make sense for me. And if they never do, I guess I’ll just sit on my rented balcony watching the sailboats pass by, or I’ll move somewhere better.

  12. tqn

    “What I’m always curious about is these people hoping for a crash before they buy. How do they picture it working?”

    a crystal ball is in the work and it will be completed very soon. sell at the top and buy right at the bottom.

  13. tqn

    Awum,
    Your view is always explained in a logical way! Thank you for sharing.

  14. awum

    Thanks, tqn, I try.

    🙂

  15. give me a break

    yeright, if you started to listen those people here back in 2005, your should really thank them for why you are still renting.

  16. jesse

    “I just don’t see how this “crash” will help people make a safe investment or how waiting until then will make buying any easier/safer.”

    It is the same predicting future prices of stocks as real estate. You can make a call about the long-term prospects but it is often hard to know exactly where the peaks and troughs are.

    One common approach is to compare rents to prices. Long-term, the price-rent ratio has increased so draw a trendline to extrapolate and buy when the market is below the trendline.

    Another way is to pay yourself inferred rent (what it would cost to rent the same place) and add a 30-40% control premium (which is about the premium people are willing to pay for owning versus renting). Compare this to the mortgage+tax+maintenance costs if you owned. If the latter number is larger than inferred rent you are probably overpaying or betting on future appreciation.

    You have good points. When you’re in a bear market it will be far from obvious when it is a good time to buy. However using some simple math and comparing alternatives (i.e. renting or moving) will help actualize an otherwise emotional decision.

  17. give me a break

    good day Rob, instead of posting daily numbers to feed those bears, would you also give out some your inside views on how investors should go about current realestate market. I have friends that telling me to look further east. what is your thoughts.

  18. awum

    The other day I came through the DTES (downtown eastside) and unless I’m imagining things, it looks worse than ever! Sure, I had just come from watching 28 Weeks Later (zombie apocalypse flick) at Tinseltown so maybe I was sensitized to it 🙂 , but I was amazed at just how much Poverty is showing it’s ugly face down there.

    I’m not really interested in the moralizing that comes with the territory whenever we discuss this, so I’ve never commented on this before. It has me wondering, though — is there some kind of correlation between increasing RE prices & rents with the growth of the DTES poverty problem? We are at a historically high rate of employment, and a high general rate of wealth, and yet there it is. To be clear, I’m not asking why it’s there, I’m asking why it’s growing.

    A theory: A rise in RE faster than wage increases clearly tends to squeeze the lower middle class out of home ownership and increases the separation between rich and not-rich, but the squeeze continues right through to the “bottom.” With rents rising, with rental units filled by individuals with higher and higher average earnings, and no reason to believe there will be an improvement in the foreseeable future, and there is less and less motivation for an individual with low earning potential to even bother trying to work. Essentially, we devalue work because the unavoidable expense (shelter) grows faster than the capacity to earn.

  19. tqn

    “yeright, if you started to listen those people here back in 2005, your should really thank them for why you are still renting.”

    I am not sure if one should make his investing decision based on blog comments. However, it’s entertaining and informative in a way as long as the comments do not reach the extreme i.e a crash is expected at 70% off from 2004 price!

  20. Joshua

    awum: Thanks for your post, it is a perfect description of my own sentiments/situation.

    I am not a bear, I am not looking for a “crash”. I just want some stability and sanity in the market, so I hopefully still be able to buy something in a couple of years when I am ready to do so.

  21. WoodenHorse

    awum:

    but rents aren’t rising in real terms (at least not as of Q2 last year http://tinyurl.com/zlwv8 )

    give me a break:

    What if prices slip back to 2004 prices? Was buying in 2005 still a good idea?

    Furthermore, my time machine is at the cleaners so I’m trying to buy as of June 29th, 2007 or later. The wisdom or folly of buying at some past date is not really relevant here (unless I can borrow your time machine). As Buffet sayz: “The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.”

    An:

    I’ll buy when the price is such that 25% down and a 25 year mortage is the same monthly cashflow as renting (i.e. taxes, mort pymt, hydro is the same as rent for a similiar place).

    With current prices, buying only makes sense if you expect prices to continue to rise at a brisk pace (i.e. faster than what you could get on your money by investing elsewhere.) I don’t think it will and I’m investing my monthly savings produced by renting. When prices return to the point where they are justified by rental returns….I’ll buy.

  22. Domus

    Woodenhorse,

    that’s a nice, concise, to-the-point post. I was going to write a similar answer, but you just put it much better than I ever could.

    We live in today’s world: we can be concerned only about what is going to happen from now on. If you view is different than mine, go ahead and buy. You might be right and i might be wrong. I still stand by the dtatement that buying right now in Vancouver is tantamount to financial suicide. My view is that prices will slide down inexorably in the next few years. That judgement is based on fundamentals, incomes, immigration, and most importantly past long-term history of the RE market in this city.

  23. An

    Thanks for all the replies… in general it sounds like people who are holding out don’t feel like they get good value for their money now. Which I can understand, it’s the way I feel about movie theaters and why I seldom go to movies, what happened to $2.50 Tuesdays!

    What I don’t understand is if prices decline to the point you feel it is reasonable value, which is when you say you would buy. Will you still be comfortable making a purchase knowing the market is on a downswing?

  24. An

    Woodenhorse:
    “When prices return to the point where they are justified by rental returns….I’ll buy.”

    So you would also buy if rents increased?

  25. WoodenHorse

    An:
    “So you would also buy if rents increased?”

    Yes. Basically I’m looking to buy at roughly 125 to 160 times monthly rent. If we get there by a)price drop or b)rent increase is not really a factor in my thinking.

    However I don’t have a lot of fear of rents climbing that fast. Prices are determined by the small percentage of total home stock that gets sold in a given timeframe, furthermore I can leverage buying a home (i.e. the mortage). So all it really takes is a small number of people with access to cash/credit to drive up prices.

    Constrast this against rent. Firstly, a very large percentage of rental stock is rented in any given timeframe and this represents a significant portion of the total housing stock. Secondly, I can’t borrow money to pay the rent (at least not for very long) thus making incomes for renters the cap on what the rental market will bear. So for rents to go up, a much larger percentage of the population would have to start forking over money to cover their rent, furthermore they’d have to cover this out of their incomes and not via borrowing.

    The net result is that rents across the market are much harder to raise than housing prices.

    However, as you can see here: http://tinyurl.com/zlwv8 rents have not been keeping up with inflation…so in real terms rents are falling (note this data is only up to Q2 2006…so if it has rocketed in 2006Q3, 2006Q4 or 2007 Q1 it doesn’t show up on this chart).

    Regarding: Will you still be comfortable making a purchase knowing the market is on a downswing?

    Well…lets say in June of 2009 we hit my magical 160 rent to price multipler. Well I would follow exactly the reverse of the logic that people have been using on the way up. If it’s dropping by 20%+ a year at that time, no I wouldn’t buy (see how this is exactly the opposite of “houses are going up at 20%+ a year….I better get in now before I’m priced out forever!”). If it’s dropping by a slower rate (less than 10%) or if the rate of desent is clearly slowing down, then I’d buy.

  26. robchipman

    awum:

    “The way I see it we have seen a short term supply/demand imbalance, leading to an unprecedented run-up in prices”. I can’t argue with that. I think the interesting point is that short term in this case stretches over several years, and demand has been the driver (we keep adding supply and are at times amazed that it gets absorbed).

    “[Prices need to make sense to me]… “And if they never do, I guess I’ll just sit on my rented balcony watching the sailboats pass by…”

    Real estate is a personal decision. You can rent or buy and fulfill your housing needs.

    I go through the DTES every day, and it is getting worse. However, I don’t think most of those people have been made homeless or SRO residents because of increasing rental costs. I don’t think most of them could hold a job. We’ve got fewer cops and more drugs, and less enforcement of laws. Aside from that (and perhaps population growth) I can’t guess why its getting worse. However, like the challenge we face with First Nations, what we’re doing doesn’t work. We need an almost revolutionary approach.

    WH:

    “Furthermore, my time machine is at the cleaners…” That’s a good one!

    However “I’ll buy when the price is such that 25% down and a 25 year mortage is the same monthly cashflow as renting (i.e. taxes, mort pymt, hydro is the same as rent for a similiar place)”; I think we’ll need quite a drop (or quite a rise in rents) to see that on the Westside/Northshore. We will see it again in other areas.

  27. new investor Rob

    I’ll give you my opinion as to why I’m investing in real-estate.

    I believe that prices may stop increasing as quickly as they have been, but I very highly doubt that they will go down.

    These are the fundamentals i go by:
    1. Investing in Vancouver is not the same as investing in Maple Ridge or Pitt Meadows.
    2. The lower mainland is land locked. Border to the south, mountains to the north, Sea to the west, and Mountains to the east. We are no Calgary with an infinite amount of land.
    3. Population in the lower mainland will continue to increase from in-migration from foreigners and other canadians.
    4. The crazy prices on the west side will continue to push people to the Fraser Valley.
    5. As transportation routes increase it will be easier to get around ( Bridge from MR to Langley) and get to work.
    6. Commodity prices are likely to keep canada strong for a very long time.

    I kept ready all the negative blog posts back in January when I was wondering whether I should get my first investment place. Since I signed the contract I have seen a place worth 290K go rise to 339K. (Based on a TH sale in my complex which was the exact unit as mine.) I’m glad I didn’t listen to the wait it out guys.

    Just my opinion

  28. WoodenHorse

    Rob Chipman:
    “I think we’ll need quite a drop (or quite a rise in rents) to see that on the Westside/Northshore. We will see it again in other areas.”

    Agreed and Agreed.

    New investor Rob:
    Regarding poplation: You’ll have to find another red herring. See: http://tinyurl.com/2zmf2n

    Note how population growth is half that of the mid 90’s. Pretty sharp drop off at the end of the data too.

  29. Bob

    “The lower mainland is land locked.”

    You sure about that?

  30. new investor rob

    Couple more things:

    You’ve got to invest in what you know or are willing to invest the time to learn about.

    For me its easier to invest time to learning about real-estate than it is to learn about mutual funds and stocks. I have more control in the investment when its real-estate.

    I just make sure the cash flow works for the life of the mortgage.

  31. WoodenHorse

    Further, regarding:
    “Since I signed the contract I have seen a place worth 290K go rise to 339K”

    Come back and gloat when you’ve sold it at a profit. I somehow feel that we won’t get an update here when the market turns.

    RE blogs in the US were full of posts the same as yours in late 2005. Funny…there aren’t that many of those posts any more.

  32. awum

    Woodenhorse: It is my perception that rents have gone up since 2006 Q2. Still, you have a good point.

    An: I don’t know about Woodenhorse, but if my rent increased enough, I’d leave. Would I purchase in a downswing? Provided I was actually buying something that I’d want to live in long term without risking my finances and my sanity, I just might.

    I guess that’s the point though — I believe most first-time buyers at this point are doing one of two things: they are (1) betting on continued appreciation either to keep them solvent or better yet to provide future opportunity to “move up,” or (2) settling for properties they don’t really want and buying for primarily emotional reasons.

    [You might be tempted to raise the issue of people using inter-generational wealth transfers (i.e., “Daddy’s money”) but I’m not sure I would call that first-time home-buying per se, considering where the bulk of the purchase price comes from.]

  33. WoodenHorse

    new investor rob:
    “I just make sure the cash flow works for the life of the mortgage.”

    So you bought at 290K, what are you getting for rent? What are your strata fees? Let’s see the numbers. I assume you have it rented out?

  34. WoodenHorse

    “I don’t know about Woodenhorse, but if my rent increased enough, I’d leave”

    Awum: honestly, so would I. If rents went high enough to justify current pricing (which would be more than double for huge swaths of the LM), this city just isn’t worth that. Don’t get me wrong, I think this is a great city….I just don’t think it is as great as it thinks it is.

  35. awum

    Woodenhorse:

    You are right about population, but you really should be looking at employment numbers and numbers of households to get an idea of housing demand.

    The participation rate and the total number of full-time employed people in GVRD peaked in August 2006 and fell through the rest of 2006, but the unemployment rate was at a historic low of 4%.

    GVRD projects that the increase of the number of households will slow over the next few years, even as household size continues to shrink.

    The GVRD numbers, YoY household numbers increase:

    1987 1.49%
    1988 2.23%
    1989 2.38%
    1990 1.93%
    1991 1.79%
    1992 3.10%
    1993 2.52%
    1994 3.05%
    1995 2.90%
    1996 2.93%
    1997 2.36%
    1998 1.95%
    1999 1.90%
    2000 1.59%
    2001 1.18%
    2002 2.26%
    2003 2.46%
    2004 2.39%
    2005 2.63%
    2006 2.75%
    2007 1.95% (projected)

    Note that it was actually pretty high during the last five years, though not dramatically so.

    IMHO, the effect of employment and household number growth is just about done as a driver of the current market, and population never really was in the first place.

  36. legacy

    I am curious as to how one has more control over investment if it is real estate?

    Stocks can be bought and sold instantaneously and have no maint. $ costs. I can add or take away (from my position) or change (to a different issue) at any time. I can contact the company management and chat. Read analyst reports and chat. BTW oil has had a rise of about 25% since jan..

  37. robchipman

    WH:

    Population growth has slowed, but let’s say we start in ’88 with 2.25% and peak in ’96 at approaching 3.5%. Start with any number (1 million, 2 million, 100) and even as the growth percentage drops the absolute number remains significant, doesn’t it? Aren’t recent numbers just somewhere around 20% off peak numbers? And around 50% higher that ’89 numbers? (You check the math – you’re better at Excel than me).

    (I’ll repeat that net immigration of 20,000-30,000 still doesn’t strike me as enough to fuel a real estate boom).

    Here’s some other food for thought. Rents have lagged, but are increasing. There is no doubt about that. I’m not sure how it shakes out, though, when some existing rents don’t get raised at all (I haven’t raised mine, for example), some get raised the maximum allowed per year (all my clients), and some literally will double on re-renting (recent sale of the under assesment property I mentioned last week). I have, for example, close to a $700 per month difference on two similar suites in the same building downtown. One tenant has been there 6 years, while the other is a new rental. I also just rented a 1 bedroom downtown for $2000. Its a nice place, but not a premium place (650-700 Sq. ft., no view, compared to a 1250 sq. ft. Coal Harbour view place where I get $2500).

    Regarding “Come back and gloat when you’ve sold it at a profit. …RE blogs in the US were full of posts the same as yours in late 2005”. Bravado? Whistling past the graveyard? $290 to $339 is almost 17%. Thats better than the market has done since January, so maybe he’s exaggerating, but if he’s right we could see almost 15% fall before he’s even. And frankly, I’ve heard that argument for a few years now. Every day that goes by insulates a few more windfall profit guzzling specuvestors. That said, just like your time machine, my crystal ball is on the fritz.

    givemeabreak:

    If by east you mean the sprawling suburbs where the unwashed reside (deep Burnaby and beyond), then yes, go there. Those areas have and will provide lots of great housing.

    The real issue is not how far out you can go out and still make money – its how far away from the center of town the “premium” ring extends. There are parts of the Lower Mainland that will never (unless we see extreme circumstances) cash flow at 45% or less down. The boundaries of that ring fluctuate (Blueridge, Seymour Heights and Deep Cove was once way the hell and gone, right? Now they’re not even a commute). However, an Abbotsford property doesn’t necessarily perform better than a Burnaby property. Chilliwack is clearly more aggressive.

    Further east? Like Saskatoon? My thoughts are that if we start applying carbon taxes to the oilsands we’ll see a repeat of the NEP. Alberta’s economy will really suffer, and places like Saskatoon will melt. We still don’t run the country – you either get Ontario and the West or Ontario and the east, but either way, you need Ontario to stay in power. We have our first carbon tax (it compliments the deficit reduction tax on gas), and we’ll see more. So if you’re going further east, go soon and lock in gains now (a friend bought an apartment building in Saskatoon last year. Wicked deal).

  38. Priced Out

    If rents rose anywhere near ownership costs, it would have profound and devastating socio-economic impacts for Vancouver. I honestly don’t know how the city would function. Low income workers would simply have to leave and wouldn’t bother commuting in for crappy jobs while many high income workers would choose to leave.

  39. robchipman

    legacy:

    I think you control a real estate investment by how you structure the purchase and how you control costs (and to a lesser extent, income).

    The most obvious trade off, as you point out, is liquidity. On the other hand, re estate doesn’t turn on a dime, like stocks, and real estate doesn’t disappear (and while indexes don’t, stocks do, or do the next best thing. I know. I’ve owned GE for a long time). RE also has high transaction costs.

    Oil! Gotta love it. I don’t care how green everyone says they are. We’ll stop burning oil when it stops coming out of the ground. We’re at $70 again, right? How high do you see it going?

  40. robchipman

    Priced out:

    Just sold a duplex in Burnaby. Multiple offers over list. Its under-rented. Rents will jump to about $4,200/$4,500 per month. Forget taxes and maintenance for a second. $4500 at 5.5 will get you $737,000. The ability to qualify for the mortgage and $100,000 gets you this property with cash to spare. It got a thumbs down from the blog, but a thumbs up from the market.

    Long before the socio-economic boogie-men come out from under the bed you’ll find more basement suites, more houses with two suites, more converted garages, more shared accomodation. I recently re-rented a room with a bathroom. When I started in this business you couldn’t have done that in this town outside of SROs. Market driven affordable densification will come to places where market driven premium densification (Bob Rennie, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, etc) can’t go. Just as commutes have become relatively shorter, true SFHs will become relatively more mansion like.

  41. Priced Out

    Wow, Vancouver of the future sounds like a place where I don’t want to live. I’ve been thinking about leaving, and it keeps getting easier to contemplate. The real estate fanatics are destroying a once wonderful place.

  42. notwedordead

    out my window at work here in vic i can see four condo towers going up. There are six currently under construction within a one block radius, and two more went up in the past year and 1/2.

    Inside my building, the talk is no longer ‘buy now, this place is special, priced out forever, etc’ crap. There seems to be a consensus that the condo market here is a bad investment. Quite a change from just a year ago. Point being, psychology has changed here. It’s no longer all sunshine and lolipops in people’s minds, despite what i saw as a blind optimism that this middle class real estate party would never end.

  43. Pop Goes the Bubble

    Rob, sure sounds smug. Reminds me of David Lereah mocking Shiller in a debate about 18 months ago.
    Lereah was promoting his book at the time, claiming there was no correction in sight till the end of this decade, and then the market would just plateau.
    Yeah, it’s a bubble, and the consequences would not be as disastrous as they will be had the bubble burst in 2005.

  44. fish

    “Forget taxes and maintenance for a second”

    That would be very nice Rob 🙂

    Then a new roof is needed. Or a renter doesn’t pay three months rent and it takes that long to get him kicked out.

    And lets also forget about insuring the place for renters, and getting called at 4 am on a work day when a toliet over-flow, or are we going to get an agent for 6% of gross.

    Then there are the rental inducements/empty months on cross-over. But we will forget those too, and just work on 100% capacity and no expenses and no hassle.

    All-in-all if we forget about all the above it was a great deal.

    But I do congradulate you on the sale.

  45. fish

    BTW- that new picture could be taken from my rental apartment.

    The owner is netting (after agent’s fee, starta and tax) about 2.7% return on the current value of the apartment.

  46. robchipman

    Fish:

    The roof in this place is actually new. And if I collect your rent it gets collected 99% of the time. There is no loss of rent when tenancies change.

    Sold for $820,00. Could we agree that out of $4500 you’d net $3500? It cash flows at 30% down. In today’s market. I think its worth pointing that out, considering Priced Out’s comment about rents rising close to ownership costs. There are places where rents are at ownership costs.

    (BTW, I charge a between 8% and 10% of gross, not 6%, but you never miss rent).

    Thanks for your quick analysis, though, fish. It cash flows with 30% down, but you give it thumbs down. Meanwhile the market recognizes value and competes to buy it.

    If you have the same view from your apartment its perhaps worth about a million bucks. If the market’s gone up 9% so far this year then your guy has made, what, $90,000? How long has he owned it?

    As for being smug, PGB, or describing a place of the future that people don’t want to live in, PO, can’t we recognize the trend already? One aspect of eco-density involves making alleys more friendly so that people can live in garages. I’m sure we’ll call them coach houses, but still. You can blame anyone you like if it makes you feel better, but it isn’t Realtors who set prices and it isn’t Realtors who pay them.

    The current price run up will come to an end. Growth in Vancouver won’t come to an end for a long, long time. You’re going to see increasing density. Some will be high end. Some won’t.

  47. DVD-R

    Hi Rob. Regarding density, what do you think of the city’s plan to re-zone the Norquay village area(Kingsway- Nainamo to Earls area)?

    We live in the area but are just outside of the proposed re-zoning area but are watching with interest…

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