The Bear Run Continues!

There were 414 new listings today and 204 sales, for a sell/list of 49.28%.

There were 90 price changes.

Inventory in my target area rose to 12,364 while over 90s dropped to 2,085, or 16.86%. The  14 day rolling sell/list dropped to 71.80%.

I can hardly wait for tomorrow!

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30 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

30 responses to “The Bear Run Continues!

  1. first_time_buyer

    This is the highest inventory since Rob started reporting. Last highest was on Oct 26 2006 , when it was 12355.

  2. Gadwin

    As a bear myself, I don’t think 3 days of bad numbers signifies a trend. If this continues day after day into August, then we may be on to something then.

  3. Annon

    Hi Rob, how many months of house supply do we have now? Still 2~3 months? If so, that’s still pretty hot.

  4. Domus

    Wow, what a day for future buyers. Hold tight to your seats, the show might be starting soon.

  5. robchipman

    As I recall, as of May 31 it was just over 3, and down from April’s number.

  6. e

    in the grand scheme of things, the sell/list average is only a few % less than last year. (of course inventory is another issue). as others have said, its nothing significant

  7. ObserverX

    I’m waiting for stagnation in sales, i.e. buyers coming to their senses, before I’ll call a change.
    200+/day is still bullish, increased supply notwithstanding. Any realtors want to comment on what’s been going down in the trenches the last few weeks?

  8. tqn

    “Wow, what a day for future buyers. Hold tight to your seats, the show might be starting soon.”

    can’t wait to get a second for my mother!

  9. Gadwin

    >Annon wrote:
    >Hi Rob, how many months of house supply do
    >we have now? Still 2~3 months? If so, that’s still
    >pretty hot.

    Months of inventory depends on the sales rate. If the sales rate takes a dip, the months of inventory will take a spike. Thus, you can have 2-3 months of inventory but if sales takes a hard dip for this month, the months of inventory can easily climb beyond 6 months by July.

    The one trend that is constant this year is the building inventory. That is a definitive trend for this year as we are seeing YOY increased inventory for each month.

    Thus, we have one half of the requirements to trigger a bear market with the YOY increased inventory. The only thing that is keeping this market propped up despite the increased inventory is the stellars sales this year. How long the robust sales lasts is the million dollar question.

  10. 8 days of listings > sales. Ordinarily this would be meaningless. But in these days of a casino-like investment mentality, i’d have to give some weight to short, quirky movments. Normalized statistics do not easily acount for non-linearity (i.e. Chaos). So i’m paying attention for the time being.
    Cheers’ y’all.
    PS i much prefer the tone of this blog over the Calgary version. Vancouver is different. 🙂

  11. deb

    CBC radio news featured a real estate advisor giving reassurance. She said growth will be big in the outlying Eastern areas of Vancouver and in multi-units closer in.
    Interesting that she is pulled in to make these comments.

  12. awum

    Mixed feelings about this “bull run” thing.

    On the one hand, inventory is building faster than last year at this time. The inventory is now about 35% higher than at this point last year. As Gadwin and ObserverX point out, this likely translates into higher “months-of-inventory” later in the summer and fall. The chance of a buyer’s market in the upcoming months looks pretty good. The inventory glut should be both deeper and longer-lasting than 2006’s. This could translate into lower YoY growth once again.

    On the other hand, the number of sales in Rob’s area so far in June is almost identical to the rate of sales in June 2006. And while it wasn’t a record-breaking June last year, it was still pretty hot.

  13. awum

    Gadwin:

    If the sales continued at exactly the same pace as last year, and inventory remained 35% higher than last year, you would reach six months of inventory by the end of September. If the wheels on the cart are as shakey as you think, it could happen quicker, sure.

    Just remember that scene from the first Terminator movie where we all thought that that the Arnie robot was dead dead dead but then the little red lights in his stainless stell skull flashed back on and he dragged his frickin’ torso along the ground and grabbed Sarah Connor’s ankle.

  14. Annon

    Hmm, the market is hot and economy is strong. Consumers are spending generously. I’d imagine everyone company including VTech to have been doing really well and wanted to expand even more. They announced that they will let go of 50 people a couple of weeks ago.

  15. Annon

    http://tinyurl.com/2dk8gf
    ———–
    ….would cut wages for longtime UAW workers from around $27 per hour to between $14 and $18.50.
    ———–

    This could influence Canadian auto-industry too.

  16. $fromA$ia

    Holy crap batman. BEAR???

    Ok I can’t BEAR this any longer.

    Bears want a fair price thats all. When they buy they become Bulls 🙂

  17. vintage

    Annon,
    I work for a local, privately owned company where we actually make something – a tangible product that is good and sells well. The trouble is, 90% of our business comes from abroad – US and Europe.
    We’re hurting bad right now, despite of expanding customer base and introduction of new business models to cope with the changing market conditions.

    The revenues do not really reflect how well we’re doing though – the strong loonie is killing us… No layoffs yet, but my bonus was cut this year for the first time ever.

    I guess the economy is hot, just not for people that depend on exports for their survival.
    Sad.

  18. e

    colleague of mine works at a luxury car dealership, and they are making record sales. many of the customers are real estate agents. most of the salesmen make 6 figure commission.

  19. Buck Wild

    “I guess the economy is hot, just not for people that depend on exports for their survival.”

    Given that 85% of Cdn GDP depends on exports, you won’t be the only one with a reduced bonus this coming Xmas…

  20. danm

    I remember from the past that the good economic times came to an end just after the public worker unions went on strike.

  21. Snick

    “We’re hurting bad right now…” -Vintage

    That is so AMERICAN.

  22. Mike

    Sounds like the sky is falling, again.

    Lots of talk about inventory increasing. There sure seems to be a high % of dumpy, x-rental, neglected properties out there.

    I wonder what will happen to the inventory levels when sellers do not get the price they want or need? I guess some will take a cut to move on, but can’t image a large number of sellers willing to do that.

  23. accountant88

    Mike wrote:
    June 22nd, 2007 at 11:57 pm
    “I wonder what will happen to the inventory levels when sellers do not get the price they want or need? I guess some will take a cut to move on, but can’t image a large number of sellers willing to do that.”

    Why not, especially if they bought a few years ago and are still going to make a profit?

  24. Mike

    “Given that 85% of Cdn GDP depends on exports”

    This is a good reason why interest rates will come back down.

  25. joel

    “Given that 85% of Cdn GDP depends on exports”

    this is incorrect if talking about the value of exports, exports are worth less than half of that, about 35-40% of GDP.

  26. chip

    That 85%, or sometimes 86%, usually refers to the percentage of exports that go to the US.

    Nevertheless, Canada is extremely dependent on exports. We’re the most trade-dependent economy in the G7. And one-third of our exports are energy, with much of the rest coming from our other fortunate accidents of geography: wood and metals.

  27. kfinancials

    The initial slope for the deline will not be steep. People are reluctant to lose money or face the fact that they have lost money. But when the outlook is not good and cashflow is draining, they have not choice. Cash is KING!!!

  28. Annon

    M3 has been growing for many decades now and prices of anything never seem to decline. If central banks world-wide are in this together, especially when they know a contraction of credit or money supply will cause economy downturns, would they really want to stop interfering and let market correct itself? I think one key factor stopping central banks to not let market to correct (by removing excess money/credit) is because no one wants to take the blame for allow recession on their watch.

  29. fish

    So where are Friday’s numbers??

  30. newvan

    “So where are Friday’s numbers??”

    Pretty demanding, eh? Rob will post them when he posts them. Sit tight and relax a little.

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