Wednesday Numbers

There were 389 new listings today and 280 sales, for a sell/list of 71.98%.  Of the sales 48,  or 17.14%, went over list.  12 of those were on the Westside. 8 were in East Van, 5 were in Richmond, 4 were in Pitt Meadows, 3 in New Westminster, 2 in Port Coquitlam, 5 in North Van, 2 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby and 2 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $531,503, while the average sales price was $521,816, a difference of $9,687, meaning the average sale went for 1.50% under list price. 19 properties went for list price. One property went for 20%($800,000) under list while the highest over list was 12% ($118,000) over .   Average days on market to sale was 39.

 

There were 17 million dollar plus properties sold with 2 over $2 million. 

There were 101 price changes, of which 8, or 7.92%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $607,527; the average new price was $589,530, a difference of $17,696, meaning the average price change was -2.46%.   Average days on market to price change was 50 days.  0.77% of all listings reduced their prices today. 

Inventory in my target area broke 12,000 again, reaching 12,037, while over 90s also rose, reaching  1,890, or 15.70%.

The 14 day rolling sell/list was 76.19%.

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17 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

17 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. Joshua

    Rob,

    I read your blog often, thanks for the numbers. A quick question – what are over 90s? Properties that have been on the market over 90 days? (Just guessing)… What is the significance of this number (in your opinion)?

    Thanks,
    Joshua

  2. robchipman

    Joshua:

    Over 90s are exactly what you describe. I count them because they fill the role of expired listings. In a textbook Comparitive Market Analysis you show three active listings, three recent solds and three expirires. The assumption is that the market is slowly increasing in value. The actives show what your competition is asking, the solds demonstrate what the market is willing to pay, and the expired listings indicate what the market has passed on after sufficient exposure. 90 days is considered ample time to get market exposure.

    There are a few assumptions there, of course, but its a starting point. Conclusions can vary: the lower the number the hotter the market, the faster its rising, the fewer committed sellers on the market, etc. The higher the number the slower the market, or, possiblyits an indication that there are a lot of unrealistic vendors trying the market. Like most numbers, there are a lot of potential interpretations.

    The numbers we see these days are low.

  3. Market Correction Ahead

    Should the Sell/List ratio be higher in a hot market at this time of the year?

    I also noticed there are more for sale by owner signs.

  4. From America to Canada

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0705050112may06,0,848236.story?coll=chi-business-hed

    “Housing cheers turn gloomy
    Long criticized as too upbeat, Realtors’ departing economist now sees recession”

  5. Last post of the Day

    Aaron, read your post, then read what Rob had to rescue you with, and you will understand why he gets a cut from everything you earn.

  6. robchipman

    Market Correction Ahead/From America to Canada/Last Post of the Day (all the same guy):

    We have a strong sell/list. “Should” it be stronger? Your guess is as good as mine.

    Re: the Lereah link, thanks for something that is a month old. How about some news from 1970?

    Are you somehow aware of what Aaron pays me and why? Do you know that he’s on a split vs. a 100% fee for service arrangement? How do you know that I don’t pay him a cut from what I earn? No matter; you seldom let ignorance get in your way :-)! Thanks for the post fodder.

  7. Strataman

    Sheesh! What is with the personal vindictiveness on this site? It’s capitalism dammit there are always winners and losers and sometimes they will change places. Nobody is any better then any other person, it’s just the right time and place that count. Blogs need to be an exchange of ideas not an assault on any persons current position, or we become the same as the mainstream media. Hey we’re all exactly the same (except me who knows all). Lets get on with ideas, innovation, and sharing!

  8. robchipman

    Strataman:

    If you really do know all could you send me your cel phone # by private email? There are times when the answers I come up with just don’t seem to satisfy my wife! I won’t call after 10:00 at night. (I promise) 🙂

  9. Domus

    This is a big development, straight from this evening edition of the FT:

    http://tinyurl.com/yw8dp3

    Look in particular at the end of the article:

    The sharp rise in the US 10-year bond yield was particularly disturbing to technical analysts who monitor the pattern of Treasury interest rates, which have been broadly on the decline since the late 1980s. Over this period, each peak in rates has been progressively lower. Thursday’s advance created a higher peak, breaking the trend and potentially signalling a longer-term advance in rates.

    “A lot of people are scared of that 20-year trend line and rightfully so,” said Gerald Lucas, senior investment adviser at Deutsche Bank. “A close above that level at the end of this week would likely target a further rise to 5.25 per cent.”

    The 10-year Treasury is widely used to hedge risk associated with fixed income securities such as mortgages.

  10. Strataman

    Okay sounds reasonable..one condition you have to send me your phone number…for my wife…if she is having trouble understanding me :-). Or you can calculate for me the relative benefits/ drawbacks of a property I am purchasing(commercial), with a cash flow forecast based on current, future and past income performances in the area. Which one?

  11. Domus

    Closer to him, here are the repercussions in our little Canadian backwater:

    http://tinyurl.com/2fyw7p

    The world is achanging…….fast!

    Sell now or be priced out forever…..houses have largely become like stocks, so beware!

  12. Domus

    For those who still think I am just talking doom and gloom, look at the tone of today’s report on interest rates, also from the Financial Times

    http://video.ft.com/usdailyview/

    It’s a video, so listen to the tone of the report…..

  13. robchipman

    Domus:

    Thanks for the links you doom and gloomer! A great point is that mortgages rely more on bond yields than on BoC rates.

    One quote strikes me as bs: “That type of inversion is unusual, as banks usually charge more for locking in rates for longer terms”.

    That said, everything changes, and low rates and loose credit should be followed by tight credit and high rates. Still, a high dollar mitigates against higher rates. Is this Dutch Disease? And, are we saying that the yield curve is moving away from last year’s spectre – inversion? I’ll try to look at it later. I do have one variable mortgage right now, and based on discussions with my better half I will be getting strataman’s number 🙂

  14. dingus

    “Re: the Lereah link, thanks for something that is a month old. How about some news from 1970?”

    I’m not sure the currency is the issue here, rather it’s that a RE cheerleader becomes a bear once the industry goggles are taken off.

    Hmmmm….. Any relevance to a realtor’s blog? Nah, it’s a month old!

    Better let mini-me post again.

  15. R.E. TARD ED

    LOL Mini ME 😛

  16. oobaka

    Rob’s right, rates are generally set by the bond market, and not the BOC overnight rate. The BOC is not really a bank like the Federal Reserve, it can only give guidance on rates.

    That said, bond investors seem to be getting sick of runaway inflation and the pathetic greenback. Japan and China have enough reserves that I don’t think they are buying them anymore. Seeing as how nobody saves sweet jack **** around here who is going to buy bonds.

    And just to show rates are really going up, the 2 Year Japanese Government Bond has just smashed through 1 percent!!, the first time since 1997. Wow!! You’ll get a grand on every hundred K you invest, hurry on this one!! (tongue in cheek)

  17. Domus

    “Rob’s right, rates are generally set by the bond market, and not the BOC overnight rate. The BOC is not really a bank like the Federal Reserve, it can only give guidance on rates.”

    That’s the all point guys.

    The securitization of mortgages is based on long-term bond rates: those are going up big time!

    For the past year the bond-yield curve was inverted: long rates were lower than short rates.

    This phenomenon (a conundrum to many economists, including Greenspan) allowed beneficial pricing of mortgages even at times of increasing short-term rates (as determined by central banks).
    This is changing really fast now. There is no B.S. there Rob. That’s the big deal. Everybody agrees it is a big deal: check out Bloomberg, MSNBC, FT, you name it. It’s going to be expensive to pay for them houses.

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