Tuesdays Numbers

It will be interesting to see how soon comments depart from these numbers and dive directly into doom and gloom bubble talk.  I don’t want to be the buzz killer, but maybe we can get a new twist. 

There were 292 new listings today and 213 sales, for a sell/list of 72.95%.  Of the sales 26,  or 12.21%, went over list.  11 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 in Port Coquitlam,  5 in North Van, 2 in Burnaby and 2 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $556,503, while the average sales price was $548,927, a difference of $7,575, meaning the average sale went for 1.43% under list price.  19 properties went for list price. One property went for 15%($298,000) under list while the highest over list was 18% ($300,000) over .   Average days on market to sale was 36.   

There were 20 million dollar plus properties sold with 1 over $2 million. 

There were 90 price changes, of which 11, or 12.22%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $568,870; the average new price was $554,636, a difference of $14,234, meaning the average price change was -2.21%.  Average days on market to price change was 56 days.

Inventory in my target area rose to 12,191, while over 90s rose to 2,014, or 16.52%.

0.65% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 66.60%.

Advertisements

53 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

53 responses to “Tuesdays Numbers

  1. fish

    Phew -Nice to get all the numbers again.

    I was starting to get withdrawal!

    Thanks Rob

  2. ObserverX

    The world is ending!!! LOL

  3. newvan

    I wonder if the raw data from these “daily numbers” posts are available? It would be interesting the see the longer term trends and analyze in graphical format.

  4. Bluephoenik

    Morning News from the States :

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/29/real_estate/home_price_recovery_appears_unlikely/index.htm?cnn=yes

    “Among the 20 cities surveyed, Detroit took the biggest hit, with prices sliding 8.4 percent over the past 12 months. Michigan’s economy has suffered from decades of cuts in domestic automobile manufacturing, and taken another hit from the recent spike in gas prices.

    The second worst performer, San Diego, where prices fell 6.0 percent, was a bit more of a surprise; that California market has many things going for it, such as job growth, a growing population and little dependence on old, rust-belt industries.”

    Sorry Rob 🙂 Guess I was the first to delve deep into the doom and gloom.

    I have a client in Scottsdale right now though who can’t fund her new business because she’s lost $80,000 in equity in her home.

    but I guess Scottsdale doesn’t have the Olympics 🙂

    Phoenix and Las Vegas experienced the steepest reversals of fortune from extremely hot to very cool. Prices in Phoenix were growing at a 49.3 percent annual rate in September 2005 while Las Vegas prices were soaring at a 53.2 percent rate in September 2004. But prices fell 3.0 percent and 1.6 percent in the latest 12 months, respectively.

    But prices in San Diego, as in many California cities, had risen so quickly and reached so high a level (the median price in San Diego topped out above $600,000 last year) that the run-up became unsustainable. Prices had exceeded affordability for the average resident there.

  5. jim

    Rob”It will be interesting to see how soon comments depart from these numbers and dive directly into doom and gloom bubble talk.”

    Well Rob, I guess that depends on one’s situation doesn’t it? A “market” consists of buyers,sellers, and and those considering becoming buyers and sellers. So why is bubble talk or the prospect of lower prices doom and gloom? I hope that a whole new crop of young families get to experience the joy of homeownership in the next 10 years. To me that’s not doom and gloom-but it does require some pricing relief. I guess its doom and gloom if one is an investor who’s time frame includes cashing out in less than 5 years.

  6. jim

    or a speculator holding multiple highly leveraged properties, or a flipper looking for quick bank, or a realtor that can’t sell in a soft market.

  7. VREB

    I nominate Jim for the most common-sense based comment of the week.

  8. millionpitfall

    The economy has been good for so long that people don’t want things to change. A lot of people in their 20’s or early 30’s have no idea what it is like to live through a bad recession.

  9. millionpitfall

    Also, the purpose of a realtors blog is to attract customers. That is why Rob does not want doom and gloom comments posted.

  10. Noname

    millionpitfall – “That is why Rob does not want doom and gloom comments posted”

    Wouldn’t he completely censor them, then?

    I am actually somewhat curious that if there is an impending crash coming, how long will it take for Rob to take the blog offline? How much will the inventory has to increase and sales to slow for him to say that this blog is not good for business?

    Just curious,

    Noname

  11. Pearl

    Rob can you outline or point me to a link describing your idea of ‘metrics’ for identifying good product? There is your blog posting on April 8, but I’m looking for a bit more detail.

    Specifically, you say

    “All things considered, I like 25%-45% down to break even, and a rent multiplier of between 150 and 175”

    What does ‘break even’ mean? And were do these numbers come from?

  12. millionpitfall

    Noname,

    He likes the volume of comments, hopes to change peoples minds about buying real estate. Censoring would not be a smart move business wise.

  13. Craig

    You guys have it all wrong… this blog is an excellent hedge for when the market turns sour. It gives Rob greater exposure to potential buyers then Joe Realtor across the street. You see, even in a downward market there will be transactions and comissions to be made. I am an ardent bear and have unfortunately been calling for a correction for 3 years now, but when I perceive a market bottom I will be giving Rob a call.

  14. millionpitfall

    Craig,

    If Rob was truly interested in bears as future customers, his opening first paragraph would not be what it is.

  15. robchipman

    Jim:

    Your point is well taken. It’s an ill wind that blows no one any good. Doom and gloom was probably a bad choice of words. Some assume bankruptcies and forecosures are bad news; I tend to think of them as the mechanism that keeps us all honest, so I really can’t disagree with you.

    Recently the daily Vancouver market numbers seem to spark multiple links to US stats indicating supporting the bubble thesis. The thing is, the news from the States isn’t new, we’ve commented on it many, many times, and if we’re going to talk about it yet again we really should make it more interesting. I don’t want to offend anyone, but the current line is (at least to me) extremely boring. I can’t help but thinking that if the daily sell/list was under 50% we wouldn’t see US stats, because local news would be “bad”enough.

    San Diego and Phoenix real estate is down? What a surprise. I actually pointed out that Jeff Brown, a San Diego based investment Realtor, stated that income properties in San Diego were hardly worth owning anymore, and that further appreciation, long term, was unlikely, even if short term values recovered to 2005 or 2006 values. I’ve also pointed out that he thinks people should have crystallized gains in Phoenix in order to move to other growth areas.

    There is, I think, a lot of meat to discuss there. Can an investor chase growth? If we plateau after several years of double digit growth, will we see that level of growth again within any meaningful timeline? Are income properties more sensistive to fundamentals than dual purpose properties? Will a correction actually bring prices back to a level that many self-styled bears consider “affordable”? I guess I’m saying that if we want to discuss US market cahracteristics and lessons contained therein for us, can’t we do a little drilling?

    Lower prices will mean lower volumes. That means fewer sales, but what does that entail for Realtors? Obviously a lot of them will drop out of the business, but what’s better: 2 Realtors competing for 1 sale, or 20 Realtors competing for 8 sales? My fear, obviously, is that a correction still won’t create traditional cash flow/price relationships, and that to justify buying Vancouver real estate we’ll have to adopt new metrics. That would entail a guy like me saying “Let me guide you through territory that is unknown to both of us”. Talk about a paradigm shift.

    Millionpitfall:

    There is no denying that this blog has attracted some customers. Its hard to divorce blogging from passive marketing. However, you would be hard pressed to make a business case for this blog.

    One of the advantages of a blog is that you can edit comments in order to control the conversation. It can be a great business move for obvious reasons. I’m not interested in doing that, as I’ve demonstrated time and again. I am interested in an interesting conversation, and recently this one has started getting boring.

    I’m unlikely to change many minds about real estate. I do like the volume of comments. I don’t enjoy the current tenor of them.

    When noname wonders how quickly I’ll take the blog offline once I realize that the blog is no good for business, I think that we’re not seeing the forest for the trees. Double digit appreciation and high prices makes it hard to predict market direction (at risk of stating the obvious, neither bulls nor bears have been particularly accurate in that regard), makes it hard to sell, and makes it nearly impossible to justify buying. Lower prices and more stable appreciation would make my life much easier. Reporting them would give me the chance to point out buying opportunities. The current numbers aren’t really good for my business.

    What would make me take the blog offline? If it gets boring I’ll shut it down or radically change it.

    Pearl:

    I’ll expand on 4 metrics that we regularly use in a separate post.

  16. Sidelines

    I’m bear-ish (hear me growl), to be clear, and I don’t think there’s anything particularly wrong with Rob’s comment.

    It’s quite true that much of the same points are brought up time and time again when numbers go one way or another. I don’t mind that too much, honestly. However, I think what Rob is trying to encourage is a bit more originality of thought in the comments.

    As for what motivates Rob to post, does it really matter? If you like the blog, read it, and if you don’t, well…

    I think Rob’s blog is swell (a ringing endorsement, you’re welcome). Now, I just wish VHB would get back from wherever he is and get his up and going again. Rob’s and VHB’s and some good comments, that’s all I want, baby.

  17. jim

    I will agree that quoting US “bear” news is tiresome. Especially when there is lots of “bear” news in Canada right now; a.k.a. mortgage rates heading up,Calgary coming off the boil, and Rob’s own stats which point to markedly higher inventory this year. At any rate, if your plan is to sit back and watch double digit appreciation offset you negative cash flow on your property you are probably gonna get caught. Similarly don’t bank on steep price declines soon to buy your dream property. The housing market always comes down to the affordability of the monthly mortgage payment. And based on that, the end of the housing bear is not near. Property bear markets last a very long time because of this psychological resistance to selling. America’s has really just begun.
    Does the US property market tell us anything about the Canadain market? Maybe. Canucksare in love with property, so much so that we find people barely have time for stock market chatter at cocktail parties. The “animal spirits” associated with property are still alive and well, as is the belief that property the quickest, most fool-proof way to wealth.
    The housing market always comes down to the affordability of the monthly mortgage payment. And based on that, the end of the housing bull is near. Property bull markets last a very long time because of the psychological resistance to selling.

  18. Marshall_Banana

    “I’m unlikely to change many minds about real estate. I do like the volume of comments. I don’t enjoy the current tenor of them.”

    Count me in as another lurking bear who really enjoys your blog and checks in daily. I think Rob probably doesn’t get enough positive comments for all his work in keeping the data available. I for one really appreciate it!

  19. Watching the Wheels

    “Count me in as another lurking bear who really enjoys your blog and checks in daily. I think Rob probably doesn’t get enough positive comments for all his work in keeping the data available. I for one really appreciate it!”

    Me too…

  20. Craig

    millionpitfall:

    I happen to agree with that line at the top of this blog. Vancouver does have some of the best real estate anywhere, it just happens to be incredibly overpriced right now! If he had titled blog “the best real estate MARKET anywhere” I would agree with you 100%.

    In other news, it looks like the forestry industry is “gunna get a hurt real bad” by the rising dollar. The chief executive of the Forest Products Association of Canada predicts national industry losses of $500 million per 1 cent rise. Any thoughts on how this will impact housing in BC? CanFor just closed a mill employing 500 – does anyone know how many people in BC are directly or indirectly dependent on forestry employment? How about forestry’s percentage of Provincial GDP and imports/exports?

    I realize many other industries including our #2, tourism, are hurt by the rising dollar however I am most interested in how the dollar affects our #1 industry (forestry).

  21. mk-kids

    “Workers devastated as Catalyst Paper cuts 130 support jobs in B.C.: union”

    Apparently this will bring total job cuts this year in BC to 480. Industrial taxes, strong dollar & soft newspaper market are being blamed.

  22. mk-kids

    Sorry, I meant total cuts by Catalyst in BC this year…

  23. realitycheck

    Thanks for your comments Rob about the tone of this blog. I have left some facetious comments lately which may have antagonized some bears but I too am tired of the negative tone of the comments. I do enjoy coming here for the data though and I appreciate your hard work in this area. Unfortunately when VHB closed his blog you seemed to capture a lot of his regular posters.

  24. jim

    Realitycheck:”Unfortunately when VHB closed his blog you seemed to capture a lot of his regular posters”.
    yah- but its more than offset by the perma-bulls.

  25. M-

    BC forestry info can be found here:
    http://www.cofi.org/forest_industry_BC/economic_statistics.htm

    “Industry sales are responsible for 43% of manufacturing shipments in BC and 13% of BC’s Gross Domestic Product. The economic activity created by the forest sector is the largest single source of provincial employment, accounting for over 200,000 jobs.”

  26. Bluephoenik

    sorry Rob – didn’t mean to “bore you” – especially since it was like my 2nd time posting. Perhaps people are talking about the states so much because that’s what we find interesting right now.

    I thought the inference made by the quote:

    “But prices in San Diego, as in many California cities, had risen so quickly and reached so high a level (the median price in San Diego topped out above $600,000 last year) that the run-up became unsustainable. Prices had exceeded affordability for the average resident there.”

    was intriguing, but if you want this to be a “bull only” blog – it’s your blog.

    I’ll just take myself away from here and wait for the crash quietly.

    Good luck to you Rob – your numbers were always appreciated.

  27. Strataman

    I agree with Rob actually, the repitition of American housing bubbles or not is kind of like preaching to the converted. I would like to see some threads of thinking outside the box so to speak, unique circumstances applicable to Vancouver. For instance I have a suspicion that Vancouver could have an unusual economy in that a lot of investors I meet are actually not flippers but rather actually want to own property in a city that they consider a resort almost. The “Monaco” syndrome so to speak. Many of these bought 4 or five years ago and could easily make a fast profit selling today and they are not in the least bit interested. In fact some have said it would be stupid to sell, as they might not be able to get back in. There is a lot of foreign investment and more American than Asian when it comes to not flipping. On the other hand I would like to see what negatives people see in the long term that may affect the quality of life these people are investing in. I see the fleeing of skilled trades to more affordable places as one, it is extremely difficult to get skilled trades to service the down town when they make just as much in Surrey, and don’t have to spend the day driving. For instance I see Strata Councils somewhat shocked that a threat to terminate a large skilled trade contractor is met with relief from said contractor who has more than enough work. The days of price negotiating are almost extinct. How will this affect your property either owner, or renter? What will Strata fees be if the real 10% annual cost increase of operations, is suddenly dumped on the new condo owners for example? Any other outside the box comments would be very interesting!

  28. Deedub

    The condo fee comment is interesting. I was running through some listings today and came across one condo for sale with a pending special assessment of roughly quarter-million dollars. In such a scenario, what confidence can one have that the base monthly fee will stay where it is?

  29. robchipman

    Bluephoenik:

    We’ve talked about Phoenix and San Diego. And frankly, just posting a link with more bear news (54% up, 3% down, look out, its a bear’s world) isn’t a good enough contribution. Like Strataman says, its preaching to the converted. Don’t go away thinking this blog is for bulls only. Make a better contribution. I, and other readers, will thank you for it.

    We saw the BoC report on North American housing markets. Vancouver runs pretty much counter to the US. How about we discuss that in light of strataman’s comments? Its neither bearish nor bullish. Is this city changing? Is that only downtown or in Coal Harbour? Surely the Monaco syndrome doesn’t apply to Coquitlam. Are we seeing ripple effects?

    Strataman:

    Interesting anecdote about the contractor and the strata council. One of the buildings I own in needs balconies. We’re a small fish, really. Guess how easy it is to get quotes, let alone a contract? Meanwhile, costs continue to rise.

  30. Bluephoenik

    again – sorry, I didn’t realize that the latest news out of CNN wasn’t a “good enough” contribution.

    I won’t bother trying again – didn’t realize that we were being “scored” on our posts – that’s just a little too much pressure for me on a local blog.

  31. Domus

    VHB’s blog was excellent in that it provided an arena for deep and relevant analysis if RE issues in the Vancouver area. Most of that analysis was data based and the ensuing debate was never dull or stupid.

    The reason why it was not as often frequented by bulls is that they were not able to provide sound backing to their positions and often resorted to cheap insult (e.g. “you should have bought 5 years ago, loser” or “you are bitter and you use numbers to comfort yourself”).

    Fortunately not all bulls are like that, and some of them are able to provide some degree of reasoning which makes things interesting.

    It should be a great honor for Rob’s blog to be the forum of choice for former VHB contributors: that blog won a series of national awards and was by far one of the most clicked addresses in the lower mainland. All good things for Rob, I guess…..

    Rob, trust me, you don’t want this to become a bull-only blog, debate is good for your business…..

  32. millionpitfall

    If anyone wants to create a wordpress blog for the bears, you can set one up free of charge. You will have to take the time to maintain the blog though.

    http://wordpress.com/signup/

    Vancouver Bear might be a good blog name.

  33. millionpitfall

    Craig,

    BC Stats has an Employment Growth by industry type 2001 – 2006. Forestry & tourism are not on the list. If your interested in looking at the list, let me know and I will post the link.

  34. vanreal

    Jim, I honestly don’t know why you think bulls dominate this blog. If anything I think it is a 10 to 1 ratio in favour of bears.

  35. $froma$ia

    I like the rational, real talk that goes on here. Find it most refreshing to the general office talk of being priced out forever. My the PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED. Right now it’s people selling to be renters and verse multiple home owners.

    People… whats would you bet your money on, the newly cashed in sellers/renters or the multiple home hoarders?

  36. robchipman

    Bluephoenik:

    Don’t be so thin skinned. We all get marked on everything we do, all the time. So what? The latest MSM link is boring when its the same old same old. Its got nothing to do with it being bearish or bullish. Its simply repetitive. Besides, I gave everyone a heads up, so don’t be hurt by honesty.

    You’ve got clients in Phoenix – why not expand on their experience? That’s real gold. What about relating 54% up with 3% down?

    Domus:

    VHB’s blog was great, but deep and relevant it wasn’t, at least not if you’re interested in making money in real estate. To date (and I say this with much respect) he has been wrong. He was insightful, he had great data, and he had great arguments. While he blogged about how unsustainable this market is (influencing many to play it safe, no doubt) many people made a lot of money in real estate. I don’t think anyone can seriously disagree with that statement (but I’m sure someone will).

    That said, I’m honoured that anyone reads this thing. I just find myself getting bored with the same old interminable debate. (The market will change, it always does, real estate doesn’t go up forever without a pause, caution, the coffee is hot).

    Millionpitfall:

    Thanks for that pointer. Last I looked there were vacancies for bubble blogs around here.

  37. Domus

    Rob said:
    “While he blogged about how unsustainable this market is (influencing many to play it safe, no doubt) many people made a lot of money in real estate.”

    Rob, I might apply the same argument to the Chinese stockmarket: in the past 2 years it quadrupled, so it makes sense for us to invest there now…..
    Yes, it was a bubble also 1 year ago, and if you took that gugantic gamble you might be richer now. Does it make it wise? Don’t know about that…..

    I disagree about your analysis of VHB: I think his arguments were deep and rooted in sound economics. The topics and conclusions were relevant for the current state of Vancouver’s RE.

    The argument here is not that markets naturally swing: it is about the nature of this particular swing. This is huge by any metric and unless gravity is defied we will have a huge adjustment downward.
    I am more and more convinced that only people who bought at least 4 years ago will be making any profit, when all is said and done. It wouldn’t be the first time, anyway, that such an adjustment happens and it surely won’t be the last.

  38. Concerto

    I recall one of the last VHB’s last “series” of posts was to show how far back Vancouver prices were going – “prices now back to September 2005 levels” and so on. Anyone pickup on those stats to show how that trending looks now ? A lot was made of that at the time.

  39. Strataman

    Domus said; “The argument here is not that markets naturally swing: it is about the nature of this particular swing. This is huge by any metric and unless gravity is defied we will have a huge adjustment downward.”

    In a natural market you are right, Calgary for instance oil boom, high prices, international commodity, drives Calgary. It will bust with that commodity. Vancouver doesn’t have that relation to anything as far as I can tell. No, I don’t think the olympics matter a tinkers damn, and I’m not a bull or a bear I think this city is unwittingly entering a historic period where it is a preferred investment. Maybe even a safe haven. Link to BBC The Economist Intelligence Unit has been putting Vancouver in the top three cities since 2002. Calgary has made it a few times lower down and NO American cities (bubble or burst) have made it. So I stand by the idea that we may very well be looking at a non- typical economy. That said, non-typical economies have a host of problems, and I wonder if this city is mature enough to see them. Or are we presuming that what works in the normal economy will work for a non-typical one. I’ve lived here for 30 years, in the 70’s a forestry down turn was a Vancouver disaster, now I wonder if it will even be noticed.

    Rob said;
    “We’re a small fish, really. Guess how easy it is to get quotes, let alone a contract?”

    I’ve actually taken to begging on some occasions and used just plain personal connections not even daring to ask for a fixed price! 🙂

  40. jim

    Strataman: Its a global phenomanon. Real Estate is/has boomed everywhere. Its got nothing to do with Olympics, Oil,Rich Russians,rich Chinese,or baby boom wealth transfer. Its pure and simple a specualtive frenzy driven by cheap money. Its a never to be seen again global asset lust that is in the process of winding down, concurrent with rising interest rates.

  41. jim

    and further its an upside down world we live in where grade 10 graduate nail pounders, and wheel barrow toters are paid more and are in more demand than; teachers, nurses and police officers. Think that is sustainable?

  42. mike

    Jim, real estate has not boomed everywhere like it has in Vancouver & Calgary. The rest of canada is a much gentler, smoother line.

  43. Many Franks

    Rob, you’ve got something of a point. It’s easy for bears to get into the habit of rooting for the implosion of a lot of wealth for a lot of people in Vancouver. However, don’t write off all bears as lusting for schadenfreude. For my part, I see two paths that Vancouver can take.

    One is the “Monaco syndrome” that Strataman mentions — coincidentally enough, I’ve been calling it the same thing — and I think that route would destroy a lot of things about Vancouver that make it unique. That route, a.k.a “it’s different this time,” involves my demographic not being able to afford to raise a family here in any kind of comfort. Ever been to Monaco? It’s pretty but antiseptic and unpleasant — if you’ll permit some stereotyping, it’s lots of old rich white men who are used to getting whatever they want, whenever they want it. Not typically a pleasant or interesting demographic when it fills an entire city.

    The other route, and the one that I think follows fundamentals, is a downturn in housing. Yes, it may hurt many, but it’ll help Vancouver in the long run to continue to be a good place to live. Wishing for the latter outcome isn’t necessarily cheering on the apocalypse.

  44. Priced Out

    If the bubble had stopped expanding in 2004, we could have avoided a huge implosion. The price increases since then are totally detached from fundamentals so some people (those who bought since 2004) are going to be hurt one way or another. A quick 1982-style drop will be less painful for them than a slow, agonizing Japan-style deflation.

  45. e

    Many Franks:
    interesting theory you have (“Monaco syndrome”); however, don’t even think Vancouver is anywhere close to Monaco. Monaco is TINY (2 sq km, 32000 people). A 500sq ft 2 bedroom apartment with view is $1M CDN or so. ($2000/sq ft). that is similar price to Fairmont estates probably. of course the weather is much better, and also Monaco is TAX FREE! Monaco is referred to as one of the most expensive places on earth (and for good reason too).

  46. Many Franks

    e, strange as it may seem, I’m not proposing that Vancouver will suddenly shrink to 2 square kilometers.

  47. robchipman

    In other news, the MSM story of the night on The National was the loss of Canadian manufacturing jobs. They even touched on the duality of the Canadian economy. Makes you wonder: is inflation bad for Central Canada? Is a cheaper dollar something that Canadian manufacturers could use? Are commodities putting exactly the wrong kind of pressure on the currency than many would like to see? Is anyone really surprised that the BoC isn’t raising rates?

    Forget classic bubble theory and what’s happening in the US. To my way of thinking inflation is the key issue. Do we love it or hate it? Are we going to have more or less? I recently read that central banks, after 100 years, have inflation control dialled in. If that doesn’t make your ears prick up I don’t know what will.

  48. Annon

    So just because the market has not gone exactly VHB’s way, so VHB has been wrong? By the same analogy, almost all economists/analysts are wrong all the time, until their exact predicted outcome actually comes true, if ever. I don’t know about this being more interesting than those same old same old. Sure, let’s talk about something in depth, let’s drill down. What else is there to talk about when the government, in the face of high inflation, dare not raise interest despite of robust GDP growth? Does any single person here have more data than the government so that he/she can provide a truly meaningful and data backed insight? I have friends who used to be millionaires because of .com boom. They lost everything after the .com crash. They thought they were gods at a time. And I would probably be laughed at if I were to call them risky investors when they had their million dollars. So who’s laughing now? I’d say anyone who is able to cash out and keep the gains until the downturn comes is the real winner. For those who bought houses earlier and thinking that they have made money …. no, not yet, not until you cash them out and put the money in your pocket.

    Rob, please do not mislead bears into thinking the bear side is wrong just because the downturn didn’t come soon enough. Arguments may get old but old is not wrong.

  49. Strataman

    e said;”Monaco is TINY (2 sq km, 32000 people). ”

    I’m not disputing that however I wonder what 2 sq km in the Kits -Yaletown area would result in as far as property prices, and “types” of people.

    Many Franks said:
    “and I think that route would destroy a lot of things about Vancouver that make it unique. That route, a.k.a “it’s different this time,” involves my demographic not being able to afford to raise a family here in any kind of comfort. ”

    Agreed totally but doesn’t mean it’s not happening!
    I never said I was pleased with the idea!

  50. millionpitfall

    If property prices and rents rise to levels that are unaffordable for the retail workers, food service workers, etc., we are in serious trouble. A bunch of rich property owners with hardly anyone left to serve them.

    And….certainly anyone left would demand higher wages, which would mean higher prices for everything. Inflation central.

  51. robchipman

    Annon:

    You are correct. Because the amrket has not gone VHB’s way he was wrong in so far as he influenced people to stay out of a rapid price appreciation. He was right about tons 0f other things. He’s a smart guy. He’s a great blogger. He’s been wrong, so far, about this market when it comes to making money and participating in it.

    If economists make the wrong call on something, then yes, they are wrong. That’s common, btw. Lay all the economists in the world end to end and you’ll never reach a conclusion.

    I agree with you that paper profit is not the same as real profit. Its not what you make, its what you keep.

    I don’t think there is any danger of me misleading bears. I’m saying VHB was wrong in a specific area. If you bought in the past two years you’ve made money. If you think his predictions will come true, sell now and book profit.

    Million:

    Not saying that I want to see this kind of change, but the idea that a bunch of rich guys living the high life will be in trouble because the hired help can’t afford to serve them doesn’t convince me. To paraphrase Dickens : “Are there no long commutes? Is there no urban sprawl? Can we not bus these little people to our gated communities?” I think the history of the world is that more often than not the rich get what they want.

  52. millionpitfall

    The rich also got poisoned, robbed and murdered too.

    Busing, gated communities, you sound so American.

  53. Strataman

    Rob Said;
    “To paraphrase Dickens : “Are there no long commutes? Is there no urban sprawl? Can we not bus these little people to our gated communities?” I think the history of the world is that more often than not the rich get what they want.”

    To a point yes you are correct, as long as a lot of people are looking for work. Gas prices make the commute not so good, and if you cite history read Jared Diamonds “Collapse” which is all about history from an demographic geographers point of view. Actually as a history buff, my readings seem to prove eactly the opposite of what you are saying. Too often we base our life on one or two generations, when that is almost irrelevant.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s