Monday Numbers

There were 252 new listings today, and 174 sales, for a sell/list of 69.05%.  There were 130 price changes.

Over 90s broke the 2000 barrier, reaching 2,009, or 16.91%, while total inventory reached 12,168.  

The 14 day rolling sell/list was 65.69%.

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48 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

48 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. Annon

    Hmm, what was once immune to housing downturn…

    http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/auctions.html

    Canada is immune to US slowdown …

  2. jim

    The housing market is bumping along as a super hot sellers market for now. However, inventory is still increasing at a faster than expected rate on a high base. The BOC is poised to increase borrowing costs this summer. Last fall, housing prices fell in the face of lower than current inventory. Looks like a “TSN turning point” is forthcoming. Could go either way.

  3. millionpitfall

    BOC holds rate steady, hints of increase in July.

  4. millionpitfall

    Here is the link to the BOC press release.

    http://tinyurl.com/24crnu

  5. jim

    Yikes!
    Quick-Whitebear, anything sell over asking price lately?!

  6. jim

    Domus-what’s happening in the UK?!
    Omigod! bearbulbearbulbearbull……

  7. millionpitfall

    Flurry of buying with pending interest rate increases? Flurry of selling with pending interest rate increases? Both? As the real estate market churns….

  8. Annon

    Don’t know what BOC is doing. Inflation is higher than the 2% target they so publicly promote. And GDP is robust … so where is the hike?

  9. Noname

    Annon – “so where is the hike?”

    It seems pretty straight forward to me that they are pretty damned scared of a housing collapse/economical slowdown if they start hiking rates aggressively.

    In the meantime, they are waiting to see if they can magically find another bubble that will prop up the economy.

    Noname

  10. ObserverX

    Dodge is pulling a Big Al — keep the punch bowl full until he leaves next year to make himself look good; scr*w his successor and doing the right thing.

  11. /dev/null

    Wouldn’t raising rates also bring the dollar up even more? Even now it must be hurting our exports.

  12. Annon

    Could be true… but I really don’t sympathize the Bernanke dude. When you are deep in the poop, instead of playing safe, you should just accept the challenges and quickly do the right thing for the market. Many people may not understand or appreciate the bold move right now. But correct actions now will be recognized later and you will be hero for sure. Indecision is making Bernanke taking all the blames if he is in his position long enough to do something but nothing improves.

  13. Annon

    And I thought they found another bubble already – TSX and all those LBOs. It’s funny when lots of people are still working hard to make a living, these BIG companies are making deals in units of billion dollars like a happy grocery shopping.

  14. Mr. Juvenile Sense of Humour

    BOC, supply/demand, economy… it sounds as if my fellow bears believe the bubbly prices are set by fundamentals.
    Prices are forever being propelled by nothing more than the false belief that prices can correct anywhere else but Vancouver, and if there is a drop it will be a minor 5 %.
    Let’s not forget what started this boom- low interest rates, low wages, low cost energy, and low inflation.
    All the stars in perfect alignment.
    The stars have been dis-aligning for some time now.
    If you bought in the last 3years, you better hope you won’t be forced to sell for at least 10 years after this thing blow

  15. Annon

    Anyone bought before last year, there is a way to secure money created from thin air. So it’s not the end of the world yet. The news has it that condos are hit hardest in Florida because of so many speculative buyers in condos.

  16. jim

    Mr Footlong:You contraticted yourself:

    “Prices are forever being propelled by nothing more than the false belief that prices can correct anywhere else but Vancouver”.

    “Let’s not forget what started this boom- low interest rates, low wages, low cost energy, and low inflation.”
    Also known as Fun- da-ment- als.

  17. realitycheck

    Our society is being divided into the haves and the have nots. Two income professional couples of which the lower mainland has many are making 150,000 plus while single earners and nonprofessionals are losing out. The haves will continue to buy houses while the have nots may be shut out of the market. The median family income is becoming meaningless.

  18. Anonymous

    Believe it or not, the “haves” aren’t able to afford living here either (at least not in the lifestyle that the same income would provide anywhere else). Not sure who is left after that……

  19. macchiato

    “Wouldn’t raising rates also bring the dollar up even more? Even now it must be hurting our exports.”

    I am no expert, but I’d say that after today a hike is already priced into the CAD.

  20. Annon

    Led by US,
    then UK, Spain, Australia, New Zealand,
    then China, India, Europe.
    Commodities will not always be this high. And we know where Canada was when commodities were low. Right now, lots of money from easy credit and lots of cash from commodities, it’s no wonder everyone who wants a job gets a job, and a decent job too. There is just too much money thrown to the market. Today’s winners can be tomorrow’s losers. There is no reason to think Canada’s current success is forever invincible.

  21. macchiato

    In the Sun today … Vancouver median family income ….

    VANCOUVER IS THE POOREST ON THE LIST!!!

    Note: this is ‘family’, not ‘household’ income, I’d be surprised to see 60K median for household income. 2.9% increase yoy, lol!

    excerpt:

    Data were obtained from 2005 income tax returns.

    Medium total income of couple families by city in 2005, with percentage increases from a year earlier:

    St. John’s, $68,900 (3.0)
    Halifax, $72,800 (3.3)
    Saint John, $65,400 (1.0)
    Montreal, $65,500 (2.3)
    OttawaGatineau, $86,100 (2.6)
    Toronto, $69,900 (1.4)
    Windsor, $79,100 (0.3)
    Winnipeg, $68,900 (1.4)
    Regina, $78,200 (1.6)
    Saskatoon, $71,900 (3.3)
    Calgary, $82,800 (4.2)
    Edmonton, $80,800 (4.6)
    Vancouver, $65,000 (2.9)
    Victoria, $73,400(1.9)

  22. macchiato

    Sorry, that income data was in the Financial Post, another nugget:

    “Nationally, the median total income for couple families rose 2.1% to $67,600 in 2005, after adjusting for inflation, it added.”

    Van is not only poorer than the other major cities, it’s also poorer than the national median.

  23. Annon

    If US economy is as rosy as the Feds have painted, then they are quite a few nuts there to go against the Feds. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahMn3AUnD_CY

  24. I think the YoY increase is more like 10%. And the real average income is definitely higher than reported. Many people’s income are not salaried/taxed, therefore hard to include in the stats.

  25. Annon

    “Many people’s income are not salaried/taxed”

    Does anyone find this troubling? We have enough people with income big enough to bring up medium family income but somehow are not taxed???

  26. jim

    The facts speak for themselves. Income in Vancouver does not relate to housing prices. Prices are high; incomes (reported) are not. How can anyone possibly deny that? Similarly how can anyone possibly deny that a market correction can happen with no discernable fundamental trigger?
    Housing bear markets are different than bear markets in stocks. They last longer. A man can swallow his pride and sell a stock for a loss. But accepting the idea that property markets are cyclical too, and that you have bought at the top, this is something a man is reluctant to acknowledge until financial necessity forces his hand.

  27. first_time_buyer

    “Does anyone find this troubling? We have enough people with income big enough to bring up medium family income but somehow are not taxed???

    Is Vancouver the only city in the world for which this is valid?

  28. jim

    first_time_buyer: Do you accept everything posted on this blog (by the likes of Vancouver accountant) instantly as fact? Sheesh. He has no idea what he’s talking about.

  29. e

    jim: good points. however, keep in mind that the US market corrected with no discernable trigger. in fact the .com correction happened with no discernable trigger. its mostly psychology. psychology is not discernable.

    * .com correction happened even after the companies strayed from fundamentals for a long time (i.e. 500+ P/Es, and bleeding cash like crazy)
    ** US hosing correction even happened after housing strayed from fundamentals for a long time and were bleeding cash like crazy

    how long things have to stray or conditions have to persist before a correction occurs is anybody’s guess. it is not discernable b/c its psychological.

  30. Annon

    I remember the time when commodities were low, Canada was so big on the US lumber issue. As if the whole country depended on it. Maybe we did. Now the lumber issue is like a background noise.

  31. Mightymouse

    I guess those “haves” better not lose either of their incomes, or get divorced, or have kids…

  32. Anonymous

    Mightymouse,

    Better add a guaranteed job with constant wage increases and a continual good economy to that mix too.

  33. Mightymouse

    On a brighter note… I renewed my GIC’s at a higher rate today of 4.35% on a 30 day in anticipation of a higher rate in July (you can get above 5% on a four year right now).

  34. Anonymous

    Second to lowest median income and highest median house prices (by a significant margin)? That sealed the deal. I’m out. It’s total bunk to say that unclaimed income is the new norm and the only sustainable way of making ends meet in this city.

  35. Concerto

    Anon – I think you need to separate Downtown from the ‘Burbs when considering relative affordability. Would someone expect to buy a house in West Van if on a low wage ? Will RE crash because they can’t ?

  36. Mightymouse

    OK…. My bank investor guy is re-investing me in GIC’s today. He says it’s too scary to enter the “market” as he anticipates a correction. He says the housing market correction is a “no brainier”.

  37. Mightymouse

    I’m sorry “the market” is the “stock market”.

  38. $froma$ia

    A market is a market.

  39. jim

    RBC Royal Bank, TD Canada Trust, BMO Bank of Montreal and CIBC have all raised mortgage rates by up to three-tenths of a percentage point, effective Wednesday.

    The posted rate for a five-year closed mortgage is now 7.14 per cent. The banks had boosted the rate for the five-year term to 6.84 per cent less than two weeks ago.

    Other banks are expected to follow with rate hikes of their own.

    Ok. So who wants to debate that rates are heading up? Anyone want to debate the impact on housing in Canada? Anyone?

  40. bakakuse

    I think the Canadian dollar being this high will hurt our economy. I know, I know, they said that at 80 cents and 85 but this is getting out of control.

    My friend just learned that he won’t be working full-time this summer (he’s in tourism) due to lack of visitors. Lousy for him, his wife is expecting.

  41. newvan

    [i]Realitycheck: “The haves will continue to buy houses while the have nots may be shut out of the market.”[/i]

    According to your definition, my wife and I (dual-income professionals, no kids) are “have’s”. We recently moved from Toronto where we sold our home — but there’s no way we’re buying a house in [b]this market[/b].

    We’re happy to wait a few years until the dust settles (either way). It’s just too high risk to have so much of our savings tied up in a single “investment”. Also, if we can’t afford our payments on one of our salaries, we’re not interested, since this would prevent us from having kids.

    In the mean time, rent is significantly cheaper than mortgage carrying costs + taxes + maintenance, so it’s quite pain-free to wait it out. For now, we’re saving like never before and investing in a very well-balanced portfolio.

  42. robchipman

    Rent is almost always cheaper than buying.

    Markets are always scary.

    4.35% isn’t good news.

  43. newvan

    When we bought in Toronto, the carrying cost on our mortgage was cheaper than rent of a comparable dwelling. Rent in Vancouver is similar, but purchase price is 40-50% higher.

    Also, my wife’s job (public service lawyer) pays 30% more in Toronto than here.

  44. robchipman

    newvan:

    Your costs of carrying a mortgage are determined by what you put into your house. You have to figure in opportunity cost for that equity. Ignoring that part of the equation and concluding that its “cheaper to rent” doesn’t mean anything. The two programs are closer (renting vs. owning, that is) when the real estate isn’t as desirable. That’s the case in Toronto, but not the case here.

    Its really expensive to buy now. Its almost always cheaper to rent than to own. Its almost always expensive to buy here.

  45. whitebear

    Funny in face of such fire sale in hmm… Rancho Cucamonga, you would have seen similar drops in housing prices in the area. Bargain? Not so fast. Plug in Rancho Cucamonga in zillow.com and you quickly realize the area has dropped only 2%. http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=1year&zpid=52976572

    Try something closer to downtown LA. Plug in Rolling Hills, Hermosa Beach, Manattan Beach.

    Just as nobody wants those luxury actioned houses in Cucamonga, someone just paid northward of 2M for a house such as this in Manhattan Beach. http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=20418178

    How about the area in general? http://www.zillow.com/Charts.htm?chartDuration=1year&zpid=20418178

    Drop? I guess you have the chart upside-down.

    Lessons learnt? Location, location, location. No one told you to buy real estate in Surrey, Port Moody. Just as Manhattan Beach is close to downtown LA, Van West side is close to downtown Vancouver.

    Bubble bursting? You mean bubble you blow up in the bathtub.

  46. newvan

    No argument here. My point was the same as yours — it’s really expensive to buy now in Vancouver.

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