Wednesday’s Numbers

There were 268 new listings today and 298 sales, for a sell/list of 111.19%. Of the sales 51,  or 17.11%, went over list.  12 of those were on the Westside. 7 were in East Van, 7 in Richmond, 3 in Port Coquitlam,  11 in North Van, 1 in Pitt Meadows,  1 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam, 5 in Burnaby and 4 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $562,358, while the average sales price was $552,385, a difference of $9,973, meaning the average sale went for 1.50% under list price.  27 properties went for list price. One property went for 16%($289,000) under list while the highest over list was also 16% ($55,000) over .   Average days on market to sale was 36.   

There were 21 million dollar plus properties sold with 4 over $2 million. 

There were 117 price changes, of which 13, or 11.11%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $582,463; the average new price was $568,760, a difference of $13,703, meaning the average price change was -2.56%.  Average days on market to price change was 49 days.

Inventory in my target area dropped to 12,058, while over 90s rose to 1,969, or 16.33%.

0.86% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 66.18%.

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56 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

56 responses to “Wednesday’s Numbers

  1. accountant88

    “There were 21 million dollar plus properties sold with 4 over $2 million.”

    There appears to be no shortage of folks buying the Million$ homes.

  2. Geezer

    A little while ago one poster heralded the bursting of the bubble when the sell/list hit 27% for one day.

    Well, I guess the downturn was shorter than expected and Wednesday must be the beginning of the next big bull market, I wonder how many years this new one will last? 🙂

  3. newvan

    Must have been a pretty good weekend after all!

  4. jay

    Now that the local press is suggesting we all move up North, those who can’t afford the local prices, where will they push after that? I hear Nova Scotia has an ocean as well, perhaps they can get the 2014 Olympics and it will be the next $ making opp. Real hardwood floors in those “relatively” new Halifax houses ought to be big money…. or perhaps I’m just getting angry at how it’s playing out here.

  5. fishonhook

    Jay- be patient.

    Nothing goes up for ever. They are just finding this truth out in San Francisco and Miami (prices down 15% over two years) However desirable a place a to live.

    Our turn will come or econimics has permanently chnaged one of it’s central tenets.

  6. coco

    Numbers have to remain stable for a few weeks solid to indicate where the market is actually going. One or two days of bearish or bullish sales is not an indicator one way or the other.

  7. coco

    But if inventory keeps decreasing and sales are strong then that is another story. Still too soon to tell.

  8. coco

    Rob,

    I looked back on your old blog to find when inventory was 12,000 but I couldn’t find anything that high. Do you know what year and month we last had inventory levels this high?

  9. jim

    But don’t get too excited just yet. When its truly a bear market people will be so disinterested in real estate, no one will notice it’s a buyer’s market. And likely traffic to Rob’s blog will revert to investors and high net worth individuals and the odd insomniac.

  10. Skeptic

    fishonhook: “They are just finding this truth out in San Francisco and Miami (prices down 15% over two years)”

    I didn’t check Miami but prices in San Francisco are still going up. Volume is down but prices are up, check it out here: http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0507.shtm

    if you’re going to make a statement like “prices down 15%”, please provide a link to your source.

  11. ängstlich

    Fishonahook:I don’t know about Miami, but are prices down in San Francisco and the Bay Area? I don’t think so. SF is listed by Forbes as being one of the most overpriced regions in the US and its prices are still climbing, despite lower sales volumes overall.

  12. millionpitfall

    Jay,

    Is this what your referring to?

    http://tinyurl.com/ynuhcf

  13. jim

    fishonhook/skeptic: The US Canada real estate market is linked only to the extent we are major trading partners. Which IS significant.
    The greater link is that we tend to follow their lead on all trends,cultural and economic. Since we are “adopters” we can expect both a lag and sometimes a buffered effect. Of course as laggards we can also play catch up and move up or down much more rapidly than they. Skeptic is right,while US prices have declined nationally, top cities have seen continued price increases. Likely if inventory continues to build, supply/demand economics should kick in and force prices down in San Fran,Seattle and other laggards. Currently we are experiencing classic price-elasticity of demand. Its still a hot,hot,hot sellers market. But inventory is climbing ,and year over rate of change is declining versus last year in much of the lower Mainland.

  14. Dyugle

    Same home sales prices are down in SF. The median lies as the high end sells and the low end doesn’t.
    http://www.paperdinero.com/CSI.aspx?id=SFXR&yoy=1
    Use the shiller index as it tracks same home sales. You can even make money because you can trade the shiller index and buy and sell options. You cannot buy and sell options on the median or the average as they are not representative and can easily be skewed.

  15. Skeptic

    Jim, please tell the whole story.

    Nationally in the US, prices are down less than 2% (at this point).

    Time will tell whether we follow the US (and how far the US market goes down)…

  16. millionpitfall

    U.S. Commerce Department – Canada/U.S. trade

    http://tinyurl.com/yt8cyf

    Jim actually knows what he is talking about.

  17. e

    Median new home prices are actually down 11% in the US. Though sales are up 16% (vs last April).

  18. AmPa

    Jim,

    Nothing that I disagree with what you said. However, I don’t think comparisons to 2006 numbers are always fair, since that was a recording breaking year in all aspects. It’s just as we wouldn’t scoff at an olympian gold medalist just because she didn’t break the last record.

    AmP

  19. e

    .. oh, i just re-read the article. the new home median price decline of 11% was in one month. that is pretty dramatic.

  20. Anonymous

    Dyugle: How does one see the source data used to create the chart you linked to, i.e. how do we know its correct ? It looks a bit amateur, there’s no titles on the axes of the chart. Also, it doesn’t show me a 15% drop, what do you see ?

    What further proof do you have that “The median lies as the high end sells and the low end doesn’t.” Its a nice theory but where are the facts to support it ?

    e: “Median new home prices are actually down 11% in the US.”

    And the link to this information is where ?

  21. robchipman

    Jim wrote:
    “When its truly a bear market people will be so disinterested in real estate, no one will notice it’s a buyer’s market. And likely traffic to Rob’s blog will revert to investors and high net worth individuals and the odd insomniac”.
    Your forecast is likely accurate, Jim. Take heed, blogwatchers. There is no reason why regular, everyday people can’t take advantage of real estate to gain financial control of their lives.
    (BTW, Jim, stop saying things that make sense – people will start accusing you of being my invention! 🙂 )

  22. John

    Median is down but sales are up 16% in the US?

    Maybe more properties that are below the median price are selling, bringing the median price down but increasing the overall number of sales. If that was the case, it could be a sign of a strengthening market.

    The inverse would be several million dollar homes selling while at the same time lower priced homes don’t sell as often. In this scenario the million dollar sales drive the price up, but with less lower priced sales it’s often a sign of a weakening market.

  23. millionpitfall

    Sorry to burst your bubble Rob, but Jim isn’t buying real estate right now, so he can’t be your invention after all.

  24. e

    John. Median prices for NEW homes is down 11% in one month.

    Anon: here is the link:
    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070524/economy.html?.v=26

    “The Commerce Department reported that sales of new single-family homes jumped by 16.2 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 981,000 units. That was far better than the tiny 0.2 percent gain that economists had been expecting.

    However, the median price of a new home sold last month fell to $229,100, a record 11.1 percent decline from the previous month. The big price decline indicated that builders are slashing prices in an effort to move a huge overhang of unsold homes.

    The jump in sales was the biggest increase since a 16.4 percent surge in new home sales that occurred in April 1993.”

    “The drop in median prices in April compared to March was a record one-month decline. If the April sales price was compared to the sales price a year ago, the decline was 10.9 percent, the biggest year-over-year drop since 1970.”

    makes sense I suppose (since the up was huge).

  25. millionpitfall

    Greenspan speaks, chinese stock market a bubble, stocks dip.

    http://tinyurl.com/34mmsj

    I wonder what will happen to all those asian buyers and asian investment properties here, if the chinese stock market takes a sharp turn in the future?

  26. e

    millionpitfall: i think the asian buyers and asian investment properties effects pale in comparison to what would happen to the north american economies if the chinese economy slows down.

  27. millionpitfall

    e,

    Those numbers do not include cancellations. Many new houses are being put back on the market after home owners are unable to sell their homes to buy the new one.

  28. jim

    millionpitfall: I just bought in the Gulf Islands and am shopping for a reno project on the Westside.
    However I am also a seller in Calgary and Vancouver island. My V-days were set relatively recently for taxable capital gains purposes, so its a good time to sell.
    Skeptic 2% national decline is huge in the U.S. in that its the first time EVER. Lower mainland sales, and soon prices, are/will be constrained by affordability, and price declines should start show in October. Debate that all you want, its always about investing on the balance of probabilities.

  29. Johnnyrent

    For those of you debating RE trends in the Bay Area, the official stats indicate that whereas the median price for a SFH in San Francisco is up 5.5% YOY, the average price is actually down 1.8%. On the other hand median prices are down 5.5% in Sonoma County YOY. Not huge numbers, but certainly not the rosy picture painted by some. Cracks are beginning to form all over the Bay Area. You can spot them if you actually study the statistics and drill down. Take, for instance, the 14 areas which make up Marin County: http://tinyurl.com/2pvd4n You’ll see more down trains, some very significant, than you will the reverse.

    As evidenced by the Bay Area, prices are very sticky on the way down however in certain areas they have already become unglued. The overall trend augers for more of the same.

  30. Dyugle

    Here is the current futures market for SF
    http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/delayed_quote.html?ProductSymbol=SFR&ProductFoiType=FUT&ProductVenue=G&ProductType=hng
    If you want to check out past data then you can talk to CME. I feel the guy who runs the blog is downloading the data from the CME correctly but I have no proof. It is not showing the 15% decline and Maimi is not showing any decline so I do not know where the other poster is getting his data. The futures are showing declines as can easily be verified at the CME. If you feel that they are going to go up instead you can invest and make a killing. Good luck.

  31. Hurray Hurray!

    Well folks, I finally did it. I drank the kool aid and bought into this market. A market I once considered “Stupid” but now a realize I was the stupid one. Now that I’m in I understand just how beautiful and fulfilling home ownership really is-AT ANY PRICE!! My wife and I now dine every night by candlelight. Partly because it’s romantic and party to save on electricity and partly so I don’t have to look at what I’m eating. I take the bus to work now and that saves the enviroment so – YOU’RE WELCOME. And after work I collect cans and bottles to pay my strata but man our condo is AWESOME! Life truly is wonderful now that we’re “on board”. Except for the occasional argument when my wife unthinkingly turns on the bathroom light and I yell “WHO’S GONNA PAY FOR THAT!!” as I dive for the switch. But then, we’re both very tired.

  32. tqn

    “I take the bus to work now and that saves the enviroment so – YOU’RE WELCOME”
    you can also sell your CO2 credit to those who drive big car. There, your bus pass is being paid by others.

    “And after work I collect cans and bottles ”
    the next generation will thank you for the efford.

  33. Mr. J Smith

    Yeah , yeah, it’s not my real name Rob:

    Whats the deal with the list/sell ratio?

    The market is terminally ill and will die a horrible death, and along the way, there will be good days and bad days.

    The facts have not changed. The affordability ratio (just one of the metrics) is at 74%, the last time it was anywhere near this bad, the market corrected by 49.90875749% give or take a few 1/10000ths of a percent.

    It’s a bubble! who disagrees?

    Realtors, recent home debtors, and loan sharks.

  34. jim

    Its gonna be a bull market for a few weeks.

  35. Mrs. Smith

    I agree with Mr. Smith

  36. tqn

    “It’s a bubble! who disagrees?
    Realtors, recent home debtors, and loan sharks”

    and then who agrees? there are always two sides or more! Depend on whom you ask.

  37. hurray hurray

    tqn: “the next generation will thank you for the effort.”
    Thank you tqn. I’m just doing my part. And I can take comfort in knowing the person I bought my condo from is enjoying their new found wealth.

  38. Domus

    From today’s Reuter’s:

    “WASHINGTON, May 24 (Reuters) – Sales of new U.S. homes rose 16.2 percent in April, the sharpest climb in 14 years, while prices fell a record 11 percent, according to a government report on Thursday that showed home builders taking extraordinary steps to move houses.”

    NOTE: the increase in sales of 16.2% in April is referred to the past month of March 2007. A year-on-year comparison with respect to April 2006 shows a drop in sales of roughly 10%.

    Yet, the new in the main stream media is that today’s statistics might be evidence of a bottoming out of the RE market in the US.

    Go figure…..are they paid to make such statements? Or are they just too lazy to read the data carefully?

    Either way, I made a few searches and it seems that an 11% drop in prices in unprecedented at the national level in the US.

  39. Dyugle

    Here is a link that shows the high end selling and the low end not selling skewing the median price in SF.
    Here is a quote

    “It’s safe to say that the more expensive the neighborhood, the more likely it appears to at least temporarily be stabilizing now,” LePage said. “At the opposite end of the price spectrum, in starter neighborhoods, you’re more likely to see big sales drop-offs from last year and more significant price declines.”

    Bearing out that thesis, Leif Jenssen, a Realtor with Red Oak Realty, recently cut $20,000 off the price of a 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home he’s selling in Oakland’s Maxwell Park, which he considers a starter neighborhood, with home prices from $400,000 to $550,000.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/05/17/MNGM6PS7LE88.DTL

  40. Domus

    Some interesting angle in the British media on what is happening to the US RE market (i.e. disaster).
    This is from the Times of London (not some god forsaken little website fool of lunatics):

    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1837088.ece

    It seems Vamcouver is hanging in there, with a late revival. It won’t last, it never does.

  41. jim

    I have to agree with Domus. Perhaps for different reasons. I have stated my opinion that US Canada real estate is linked by trend consitancy, and not by cause and effect. However it seems to me that if US prices decline, and ours do not, then we will become the most expensive place in North
    America to buy a home. Other than current demand, and limited supply growth there is no real justification for that.

  42. Dyugle

    case shiller index historical data
    http://tinyurl.com/3cz3kg

  43. realitycheck

    In the city of San Francisco prices are still going up just like they will be going up in the city of Vancouver. The suburbs and outlying areas I believe are overpriced and will see a correction.

  44. dignanmaplethorpe

    ROB, on a more serious note….

    Did you watch “LOST” last night?

  45. Domus

    …and for those who really, really refuse the listen, here is an interesting article fresh out of today’s CNN website:

    http://tinyurl.com/2axako

    It is about expected house price changes in the US. Have a guess what it says……

    So, NY city is down, Chicago is down, large swathes of California are down…….but we have got the mountains, the oceans and the Olympics, don’t we?

  46. robchipman

    Diggy:

    Missed it. Watched the Giants lose instead.

  47. IgorD

    I am reading this blog with great interest regularly. Here are just some random thoughts on the US housing market.

    The US housing price is back to July 2005 – 22 months of price appreciation are completely erased.

    Those homeowners that have 10% equity in their homes just had 100% of their life savings wiped out in one month and now 1% under water on their mortgage.

    This is massive decline in wealth across the nation, probably in the range of $1 to $2 trillion dollars in just one month. This is already comparable to Nasdaq slump in 2001.

    It is also reported that fixed year mortgage rates rose at the same time. The debt got more expensive, so forget about refinancing. With massive ARM resets started in April, record gas prices and higher fixed mortgage rates it is going to be an interesting year.

    The denial phase of US housing slump is probably over. The market should now be moving to recognition, followed by panic and then acceptance (that would be the bottom).

  48. /dev/null

    Thanks, IgorD. That’s a very insightful analysis you’ve come up with.

  49. jim

    realitycheck:

    “In the city of San Francisco prices are still going up just like they will be going up in the city of Vancouver. The suburbs and outlying areas I believe are overpriced and will see a correction.”
    You’re half right.

  50. jim

    /dev/null: Plagarism. sarc.Scary. end sarc.

  51. IgorD

    I was too quick to hit the Submit button. My mistake and I am sorry for that. The link to the original post is:

    http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2007/05/24/the-second-stage-of-housing-bust-officially-started/

  52. /dev/null

    No worries, Igor. Jim has already put me in my place rather eloquently. Perhaps Rob could turn on the comment preview feature in WordPress, which might be helpful to everyone.

  53. Johnnyrent

    Reality Check

    You say that the city of San Francisco SFH prices are continuing to go up as they are in Vancouver but how do you reconcile this statement with the fact that the average San Francisco SFH home price is actually down 1.8% from last year? The stats are here: http://www.rereport.com/sf/ron/

    Median prices in SF are up very moderatly YOY however median prices aren’t a particularly good guide. The higher end of the market tends to be stickier on price than the lower end; hence, lower end prices will correct first which can positively influence the median while distorting the overall trend.

    I agree that suburbs will correct in the GRVD sooner than, say, the Westside. History tells us, however, that the Westside of Vancouver corrects no less in the final analysis than any other part of the GRVD ultimately.

  54. Domus

    Rob,

    so what’s happening tonight? Another over 100% day? More people signing mortgages for a few hundreds thou?

    Spread the light………….

  55. jim

    Numbers will good for bulls.

  56. Domus

    No numbers yet, though….what’s going on. I thought Rob would be happy to show off its sales numbers.

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