Tuesday’s Numbers

There were 324 new listings today and 186 sales, for a sell/list of 57.41%. Of the sales 34,  or 18.28%, went over list.  10 of those were on the Westside. 5 were in East Van, 1 in Port Coquitlam,  1  in New West,  9 in North Van,  1 in Maple Ridge, 2 in Coquitlam, 3 in Burnaby and 2 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $549,590, while the average sales price was $546,203, a difference of $3,387, meaning the average sale went for 1.04% under list price. 15 properties went for list price. One property went for 16%($90,000) under list while the highest over list was also 13% ($177,000) over . 

There were 13 million dollar plus properties sold with 2 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 33.

There were 112 price changes, of which 8, or 7.14%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $547,391; the average new price was $533,104, a difference of $14,287, meaning the average price change was -2.85%.  Average days on market to price change was 41 days.

Inventory in my target area dropped to…., o.k., it broke the 12,000 mark, hitting 12,069, while over 90s rose to 1,883, or 15.60%..

0.86% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 61.02%.

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16 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

16 responses to “Tuesday’s Numbers

  1. el_bubb

    12,069 Sweeetness!

  2. M-

    Interesting, seems there are a significant number of expiries happening these last couple days!

  3. whybuywhenucanrent

    Since VBH nailed this prediction, how about some long-term predictions?

    Use whatever metric you want.
    Where will the market be?

    Sept 1, 2007?
    Jan 1 2008?
    May 15 2008?
    May 15 2009?
    May 15 2010?
    May 15 2011?

    My guesses:

    Sept 1, 2007,
    * Rob’s inventory at 16,000.
    * 6 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price up 15% from Jan 1, 2007
    * Market called “neutral” (but obviously very good for any seller, since prices are way up even if you take a “small hit” over your asking price)
    * Interest rates same as Jan 1, 2007

    May 15, 2008
    * Rob’s inventory at 19,000
    * 8 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price still up 15% from Jan 1, 2007 . (same as Sept 1, 2007)
    * Market called “Neutral”
    * Interest rates down.25% from Jan 1, 2007

    May 15 2009
    * Rob’s inventory at 22,000
    * 10 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price up 5% from Jan 1, 2007 . (down 10% points from Jan 1, 2008)
    * Market still called “neutral” because prices still way too high to be a “Buyer’s”
    * Interest rates down .25% Jan 1, 2007
    * High-price malaise hits Vancouver. Monthly housing costs eating way too deeply into other spending. People are having fewer kids, people without kids aren’t moving to Van, schools have problems, charities get less donation, more 2-full-time-worker HHs.

    May 15 2010?
    * Rob’s inventory at 30,000
    * 10 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price down 20% from Jan 1, 2007 .
    * Market called “Buyer’s”
    * Interest rates same as Jan 1, 2007
    * Olympics are over. Lots of hype, but still no increase in high-paying jobs. Tourism industry is up, but hotel clerks aren’t buying.
    * Realtors are sending happy press releases to the Vancouver Sun–“Real estate poised to rise again!”

    May 15 2011?
    * Rob’s inventory at 30,000
    * 12 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price down 30% from Jan 1, 2007 .
    * Market called “Buyer’s”
    * Interest rates same as Jan 1, 2007
    * “Housing slump” is now old news. Folks seem to have forgotten there ever was a boom. Vancouver magazine has cover story with a young couple asking each other “Why buy now, when the price will be lower in December” and “Or when it will be leaking in December!” (Like they did in July, 1999).

    Whybuywhenucanrent

  4. whybuywhenucanrent

    Oops, minor correction

    Jan 1, 2008
    * Rob’s inventory at 19,000
    * 9 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price still up 15% from Jan 1, 2007 . (same as Sept 1, 2007)
    * Market called “Neutral”
    * Interest rates down.25% from Jan 1, 2007

    May 15, 2008
    * Rob’s inventory at 19,000
    * 8 mos inventory at monthly selling rate.
    * Average Van West SFH price up 5% from Jan 1, 2007 .
    * Market called “Stagnant”
    * Interest rates same as Jan 1, 2007

  5. Priced Out

    I think the above scenarios are realistic unless we have an 80s-style recession. If that happens, everything will occur a year or so earlier.
    Also, other markets (like suburban condos) will weaken faster than Van West SFH.

  6. millionpitfall

    Other items that can effect your predictions.
    – Interest rate may go up due to inflation.
    – Rising gas prices affects prices on food, transportation, etc.
    -Canadian dollar broke 91 cents yesterday expected to go to par or higher, bad news for our lumber industry which depends on U.S. sales.
    -Since May 8 property sales have dropped off, listings are outpacing sales almost 2 to 1 for the last week. Will it continue?
    -Rona, Home Depot, retail sales dropped. People have slowed down renovating, building or just don’t have the money available.

  7. Snick

    whybuywhenucanrent,

    I think things will unravel a lot sooner than you suggest.

  8. millionpitfall

    Canadian April 2007 inflation number states “Data held pending review” The Accountant has to double check the numbers, must of jumped higher than expected?

  9. Domus

    Rob,

    question about your numbers, I cannot make sense of the rolling sell/list ratios.

    Tuesday’s rolling sell/list ratio is 61.02%.
    Monday rolling sell/list ratio was 60.89%.

    Tuesday there were 324 new listings today and 186 sales, for a sell/list of 57.41%.

    Now, 57.41%

  10. Noname

    Domus,

    This question was posed previously on one of the other days.

    The sell/list 15 days ago must have been less than 60%. This low ratio got dropped since it’s a 14 day rolling list. Since a low number got dropped, hence the increase…

    Noname

  11. Noname

    Domus,

    15th day counting back was Apr. 25th with a sell/list of 55%.

    This number was dropped, hence the increase…

    Noname

  12. Domus

    OK, thanks for the clarification. It makes sense.

  13. Domus

    My 2 cents:

    Sept 1, 2007? 16K
    Jan 1 2008? 18K
    May 15 2008? 17K
    May 15 2009? 20K
    May 15 2010? No clue
    May 15 2011? No clue

    M- said “Interesting, seems there are a significant number of expiries happening these last couple days!”

    Yes, I also noticed that. Listings are quite strong and sales are not catching up. And yet the total inventory is not going up accordingly. I wonder why that is.

  14. jim

    Not that I am predicting or anything but…..
    If the above scenarios were to play out whybuywhenucanrent or domus, you would see far more drastic results. That is; if inventory were to hit 16000 by September, which I agree with fyi, then inventory will have grown exponentially not linearly. So either it would coninue to grow exponentially which means a complete sales collapse or prices will adjust quickly to bring inventory growth back to either flat or a linear progression. If sales fall as dramatically as you have indicated I bet on prices adjusting quickly. This iswhere we depart from tracking the U.S.

  15. blueskies

    OT but relevant:

    this weekend keep your gas tank near full….
    supply and demand issues may crop up down south with knock-on effects here in Lalacondoland… gonna be an interesting summer……

  16. ryan

    Do you know about the nature of money. Where does it come from and where does it go? I have a strong feeling deflation is coming (9 to 24 month timeframe) and not inflation.

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