Paul Was Right…

…and it looks as if VHB is going to be wrong! (Unless we have a monster sales day on Monday the 14th).

There were only 370 new listings today but with only 100 sales  the sell/list plummetted to 27.03%. It’s been lower (January this year and October last year), but that’s still pretty low!

Of the sales 12,  or 12%, went over list.  2 of those were on the Westside. 1 was in East Van,  1 in North Van, 1 in Coquitlam,  3 in Burnaby and 4 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $506,474; average sales price was $498,351, a difference of $8,123, meaning the average sale went for 1.58% under list price. 5 properties went for list price. One property went for 7.5%($44,000) under list while the highest over list was also 7.5% ($30,000) over .

 

There were 5 million dollar plus properties sold (5%), with 1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 32.

There were 27 apartments (27%),  5 duplexes (5%), 42 houses (42%) and 22 (22%)townhouses sold.

There were 54 price changes, of which 5, or 9.26%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $540,524; the average new price was $522,146, a difference of $18,378, meaning the average price change was -2.49%.  Average days on market to price change was 52 days.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,915, while over 90s dropped  to 1,706, or 14.32%.

0.41% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 60.48%.

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111 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

111 responses to “Paul Was Right…

  1. asun

    What a bearish day! Hooray for Paul! A few more like this, we might even hit 13K before the end of the month.

  2. accountant88

    Only 100 sales? What happened?

    However, one may suggest that about 2 weeks ago was April 30th….everyone was too busy doing their taxes to keep the taxman happy. If the deals were made with subjects at the time, the subjects would be removed now and show up as actual sales.

  3. VHB

    “VHB is going to be wrong!”

    But that’s never happened before!! How will I deal with it! 😉

  4. millionpitfall

    VHB,

    It’s okay, your pretty close. I did mention in a previous thread it would happen before the 15th, so as a previous member of your blog, I got you covered.

  5. bakakuse

    I wonder if listings and the TSX will coincide this year? The composite hit 14000 yesterday, but it should pull back, maybe to 13000 sometime in the summer……..

  6. millionpitfall

    As I mentioned previously, at best this market is steady or warm, but if this keeps up it could become lukewarm. A sales number like this doesn’t happen in a “hot” market especially in May. In the winter months, but certainly not in the spring.

    The market is getting hiccups. Summer doldrum sales are coming. It will be interesting.

  7. Skeptic

    Man, look at this place. The guy/girl who enters the sales in the MLS system takes a Friday afternoon off and the Bears are claiming victory ! 😉

  8. Snick

    Skeptic,

    Repeat after me,

    “The bigger they are, the harder they fall”.

    Did you really think the boom would go on forever?

  9. jim

    Skeptic: Nice one. 🙂

  10. Paulb

    Listings get priority heading for the weekend . If this kept up it would be a blood bath. We will see more of a balance next week as MLS catches up on listings and gets back to entering sales. What a day though!

  11. -A-

    Pretty much a carbon copy of the USA bubble markets today, and previous crashes of yesteryear.

    While the foundations of the markets were crumbling, the RE promoters were able to keep the perception prop intact until the last of the fools departed with his money.

    This market is priced for perfection. This market is long overdue for a very serios correction.

  12. jim

    Paul/Rob:
    Any predictions as to the direction of this market over the next few month?

  13. -A-

    There are approx 800 open houses in the Vancouver area, at this very moment.

    This board should stay relatively quiet, while the realtors attend.

  14. jim

    Let me tell you about Open Houses on the West Side of Vancouver right now. Standard operating procedure is: get your clients to list slightly below market value. Get them to spend several thousand dollars to stage their house. Hold a 2 hour open house where the desperate multiple bidding war second finishers from previous listings arrive in the multitudes. For any given house on the West Side these days there are usually 300 interested couples only 3 or 5 of which are serious enough to write offers.
    They see all the gushing wannabees, none of whom are really serious or qualified to buy. It creates the desperate feeding frenzy mentality which the buyer’s realtor does nothing to mitigate. And kaching! Multiple offers! In this market it only takes 2 offers for the property to go over asking price. And truly the buyers feel: a.) They must buy now or be priced out forever or b.) We plan on living here for-EVER, so who cares what we pay today. c,) So many desperate excited open house attendees-we must win!
    Sorry if that’s a tad cynical but I have seen it a nauseating number of times.
    For the listing agent:2 hour open house, 2 hours of paperwork tops, 2 hours of negotiating,2 hours of driving, 2 hours of listing activity, and about $45,000 is split between 2 realtors for 10 hours work tops. Gotta love it!

  15. e

    jim: this is EXACTLY what went down in the US in the winter of 05. (inventory rising, prices rising — more competition, so USA today, Washington Post, etc would have stories about the “new strategy” of listing lower and getting bids)

  16. ryan

    what is the 30 day trailing sales total? I’d like to find out how many months of supply we have. If it’s still under 4 we’re still in a hot market.

  17. jim

    ryan,ryan,ryan: We ARE in a hot market. VERY hot. No argument at all. But it APPEARS to be slowing.

  18. accountant88

    jim wrote:
    May 12th, 2007 at 1:45 pm

    For any given house on the West Side these days there are usually 300 interested couples only 3 or 5 of which are serious enough to write offers.
    ——————————

    These other 295 couples are going to these open houses just to kick some tires?

  19. Joe

    from my own experience this years market is the strongest yet!

  20. jim

    Joe: And what is your experience?

  21. Skeptic

    Rob, what do you think of Jim’s comments about how its done ? Any comments on the realtor’s remuneration ?

  22. coco

    accountant 88,

    You would be shocked at the number of people that come to open houses for the kick of it. Your neighbours for one, other neighbours, people just driving by, people thinking of selling their house so they come to see what yours is priced at and even the occassional thief.

    When we sold a condo our realtor said all our neighbours in the building showed up at our open house. The realtor also mentioned other people from the condo building next door and across the street came too.

  23. vanreal

    open houses rarely sell houses. they are usually staged so that the realtor can pick up perspective clients.

  24. Paulb

    Many appraisers , financial advisors and other realtors I talk to think we could be looking at a correction in the near future.

    I think we will see a correction . Look at the numbers….if we continue adding listings anywhere close to this pace inventory will continue to swell and the market will have to adjust. I am curious if the whole GVRD will see declines, or if areas with more rampant speculation (downtown concrete) will take the brunt of it.

  25. crasher

    Open houses are are also attended by stooges from realters. I know a sister of a realtor who regularly poses as an eager buyer to fuel competition.

    A year ago, when I considdered selling a house I was approached by a realtor who convinced me to show the house to a lady wanting to buy the place, if only I would list with him. When I went to his office a couple days later to arrange the listing, I saw that same lady working in the realty office.
    Needless to say, he did not get my listing.

  26. awum

    Hafta admit, I’m with Skeptic on the sales drop. It can’t just drop 60% in one day. That’s just silly. Still, I guy can dream…

  27. awum

    Paul – I’m not so sure downtown concrete will take the biggest hit. I’d look to condos in the Valley for that. They have been a tear for the last couple of years (outperforming SFHs significantly), and there is no good reason for that.

  28. Gadwin

    >I think we will see a correction . Look at the
    >numbers….if we continue adding listings
    >anywhere close to this pace inventory will
    >continue to swell and the market will have to
    >adjust.

    Paulb is right. Basic economics. If supply increases rapidly, there will be an effect on the price. As much as the bulls that are wearing the rose colored glasses want to proclaim, you can’t defy supply and demand in the longer run.

  29. tqn

    this newly built house (v627430) was on the market for sometime with the asking price $799k. I just saw the sold sign this morning. Dunno how much it sold for, but if the sold price is closed to the asking, then I think it sets a new high for this kinda houses in this location. The market still has teeth!

  30. coco

    awum,

    The real estate market can do weird things, maybe buyers are finally tapped out financially and there is just too much inventory to be absorbed. Best to wait and see what sales figures we see in the next couple of weeks before drawing any conclusions one way or the other.

  31. millionpitfall

    Just got back from visiting some open houses, pretty quiet, no 20 to 40 pairs of shoes at the doors today. Two to six pairs at the most. I was surprised how dead it was, it reminded me of winter open house traffic, not spring. Maybe it is Mother’s day, then again maybe not as Mother’s day usually involves the lunch or supper hours instead.

  32. rockandhardplace

    Bears,

    Keep our hats on. These numbers are only here to taunt us. We have had our hopes of a slowdown dashed before. I am certain (however, I wish the opposite) that this day will be followed by days of strong sales. Why do I think this, because we have asset inflation. And, it sucks.

  33. $froma$ia

    Do you know ho many people are holding multiple properties?

    What do you think when they try to sell them all at the same time?

    Heh, High rollers, high stakes makes for one hell of a game of poker.

    Priced out forever? I call your bluff.

  34. mike

    The 14 day rolling sell/list was 60.48%.

  35. Jim

    Further to my post on open houses. Paul,Rob,Skeptic-it was not a shot at you realtors(yes Skeptic,you’ve been found out). In fact realtors that I have worked with I would trust with my net worth and have. About 10% of Realtors are the hardest working people I know. It was to point out the “Costco nature” of feeding frenzy marketing which is used. Pile ’em high and make ’em buy.

  36. rockemsockem

    I’m new to the blog. We build new houses on the West side between Cambie and Kerrisdale. This market may show signs of cooling in other areas but the clients who buy new houses on the Westside are doing so with no subject to financing. They are all coming from the Pacific rim area. We cannot forsee a slowdown in our target area in the near future.

  37. Skeptic

    Jim: “Paul,Rob,Skeptic-it was not a shot at you realtors(yes Skeptic,you’ve been found out)”

    Jim, you are wrong, I am not a realtor, never have been one in the past either and no plans to become one. Not sure how I can spell it out more clearly for you.

    I sure hope your skills of market prediction are better than your skills of deduction.

  38. Noname

    rockemsockem,

    rockemsockem – “We cannot forsee a slowdown in our target area in the near future.”

    How do you define ‘near future’?

    Also, why do you think that just because the market is sizzling right now, it cannot come to an end in a relatively short time?

    It’s kind of like the weather. It’s sunny today and I don’t see any clouds on the horizon so it must be sunny for the rest of the day. Does that mean that it won’t rain tommorow?

    Noname

  39. millionpitfall

    rockem,

    You sound like a realtor, not a builder. But…then again on the internet you can become who ever you wish to be.

  40. Jim

    Sorry Skeptic I did not meant to slag you.
    I am also the guy that is convinced VHB is Cameron Muir.

  41. Jim

    rockemsockem: If you are going to invent stuff-at least try new material.

  42. Skeptic

    Jim: “I am also the guy that is convinced VHB is Cameron Muir.”

    Haha, that is funny 🙂

  43. Paulb

    I have noticed a slow down in traffic at opens as well. I recently had 2 very well priced properties sell in the first week……that said, the weekend opens were ghost towns. My knees were knocking. The first week often will bring and offer due to the just listed excitement….

    Last year I would have a place sit for a couple months and still have 30 ppl come through the open.

  44. rockemsockem

    Jim, millionpitfall – I’m not a realtor. I’m not inventing stuff. I’m just telling you what I experiencing. I have no crystal ball. All I can go with is how fast my homes sell. East side I would be worried based on cost of land and selling price.

    Noname- near future for me is the completion of 1 project – 6 months. That is what I go with. If the market crashes 20% in 6 months I’m going to lose some money on that project and then wait for the next upswing. What else can I do? I’m not going to wait for the sky to fall. Instead I’ll calculate risk and then go with that. All my eggs don’t go into one basket …. never. The last 2 years have had gains which are not sustainable but leveling off or weak sales will not shut me out if I can still make a living.

  45. crasher

    I can’t help but wonder if the ease of posting on this new blog format (without registration) is a threat to it’s credibility, as it seems to be attracting more opinions from the uninformed than ever.

    It just seems to me that http://vancouvercondo.info and http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com attract a more balanced dialogue from people that are able to think deep enough to considder fundamentals rather than just watching the daily numbers.

    This is not to suggest that the numbers are not appreciated.

  46. awum

    I believe rockemsockem. The fact is, even in the darkest depths of a real estate meltdown (and God knows we aren’t in one…yet), some properties still sell.

    Plus, it is likely that the rapid price inflation since 2001 has left some parts of the market in a far more vulnerable position than others. What I’m saying is, this hasn’t just inflated prices past fundamentals, it has also screwed up relative values. Condos in less-than-desirable locations have gone up far more than West Side SFHs simply because of supply and transient affordability limits at the low end of the market. You’ll find similar price-compression dynamics in the values of old vs. new homes, bedroom community vs. central neighborhoods, and condos vs. detached homes. Should we be shocked to hear that new SFHs in the Cambie/Kerrisdale area are selling well while inventory rises elsewhere? No, I’d expect that market to hold up the longest and best. Older Maple Ridge condos on the other hand…

  47. Anonymous

    Rockemesockem:
    “the clients who buy new houses on the Westside are doing so with no subject to financing.”
    Everybody writes with out subject to financing on the Westside:It’s called: “pre approved financing”-of course as an experienced succesful builder, building new homes in Cambie-you already know that. And you would know that subject free offers are the norm right now.

    “They are all coming from the Pacific rim area.”
    Interesting -I hear that 9 out 10 Westside homes are going to locals and Western Canadians-you must build a certain type of home.
    “We cannot forsee a slowdown in our target area in the near future”. If you cannot foresee a slowdown in your target area in the near future, you must have different information than: inventory,CPI, YOY sales, flatlined YOY rate of change (aka momemtum), all major banks including Credit Union central predicting a slowdown, CMHC predicting a slowdown, all major banks predicitng a raise in mortgage rates this fall, etc. Or is it extrapolation of your personal experience?
    I am not a bear-but come on.

  48. jim

    Sorry anon 11:51 was me.

  49. crasher

    Interisting article about the San Diego market on http://vancouvercondo.info

  50. aaronbest

    Jim, I had a good laugh reading your first hand story on how open houses work, and the amount of hours Realtors work to sell a property. I appreciate you later coming back to say not all Realtors are exactly as you describe. As a Realtor who works 40+ hours a week even when it is slow, I was a little offended. I have to say there is a lot more to Real Estate than you acknowledge. That being said, your issue seems to be that if a Realtor sells a home quickly in a multiple offer situation. The Realtor is making too much money, and not working long or hard enough for that money. As a representative of the seller, wouldn’t you agree that it is the agent’s job to sell the house for as much money as possible, in the least amount of time? The alternative is to restrict the showings to one showing a week for months on end. Of course once the days on market climb to more than 2 weeks, the buyers automatically think the house is a) over priced b) has something wrong with it. So eventually the only buyers taking a look are the bargain hunters trying to grind the seller on price and terms.

    The senario you desribe can and does occur, but that doesn’t mean it is an everyday occurance. From a Realtor’s perspective it balances out the listings from hell, where the seller demands $50,000 more than the home is worth, leaves the home & yard in shambles, expects you to hold open house’s Saturday & Sunday every week, calls you at all hours of the day, and wants you to sell the house for $FREE!

  51. -A-

    Crasher,that’s San Diego. It can’t happen here. We are running out of land and sky.

    And, oh yes, we have mild weather.

  52. Anonymous

    Anonymous: “They are all coming from the Pacific rim area.”
    Interesting -I hear that 9 out 10 Westside homes are going to locals and Western Canadians-you must build a certain type of home.

    locals would qualify as people from the Pacific rim wouldn’t they ?

  53. Bluephoenik

    “locals would qualify as people from the pacific rim”

    no – locals are local

    people from the Pacific Rim are just arriving

  54. Anonymous

    Canada is on the pacific rim

  55. jim

    aaron; again, no slight intended. I am referring to single family houses on the Westside of Vancouver in today’s market.
    How much your profession pays versus your overalll work week is between you and your vices.
    For any given listing my description of hours invested was generous. Now the real work these days(unpaid work) is getting the listing.

  56. jim

    “Sold 33% over listing.”
    My point excatly. It was underpriced based on comps by 400k at least.
    What’s even sadder is the owners did not have a clue as to market value.

  57. Anonymous

    Funny how the agent seems proud to say that it sold 33% over listing. They should be embarassed that they priced it so far wrong.

  58. e

    i’m with jim. that property was drastically underpriced. 66×114 lot!! even a 33×110 asks for 1-1.1M nowadays. that house is probably worth more than what it sold for

  59. jim

    Original owners. Probably 90 years old. Nuff said. Sad.

  60. M-

    jim: Shelley Gordon is a friend of mine, I’ve seen her act only with honesty. She lives in that neighbourhood, and was blown away at how much interest the property received, mostly from developers. The interior, she told me, was “unlivable”. It was listed just above the 2007 assessment.

    Are prices up 33% from last July?

  61. jim

    M:The fact that she’s a friend of yours does not mean she priced the house correctly. “blown away at how much interest the property received, mostly from developers”.
    “blown away?”-must be her first sale.

  62. e

    M- even land value is worth more than that based on other properties I have been tracking. assessment values aren’t overly accurate either. i can name some properties in van west for you, and if you can get them for me at assessed value or slightly over, i’ll be ecstatic!

  63. e

    … its still possible to be honest but ignorant.. no?

  64. jim

    Lucky (smart)buyer.

  65. anonymous

    “They should be embarassed that they priced it so far wrong.”

    Darn right!!! That sale looks a little fishy to me! I hope we don’t see that flipped in the next year!

  66. GrowBuster

    My guess is the property was bought by a developer.

    66×114 lot, split into two 33×114 lots, then build two houses and sell them off.

    Assessment is probably right, but does not take into account the value if it was two separate lots (33×114).

    Pretty cheap then… about $700 for a lot.

  67. Skeptic

    Hehe, so even the bears are now admitting that there are some ‘bargains’ around !

  68. chip

    Inventory up again in my areas. North Van at 540 today, which is the highest I’ve seen it this year. Was less than 500 last week.

  69. -A-

    http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB117910010258001458-lMyQjAxMDE3NzE5NDExMDQwWj.html

    “At the San Diego sale, houses and condos typically sold for about 30% below the previous sale or appraisal prices. In a few cases, the discounts were around 50%.

    A four-bedroom home in Oceanside, Calif., attracted a high bid of $495,000 at the auction, 33% below the sale price recorded in November 2005 for the property. One condo in San Diego sold for $120,000, less than half of its previous value.”

    Can any of the Realtors/Experts on Rob’s blog explain for the record(now that our bust is just around the cornet) why it’s different here-this time?

  70. Canadian David Lereah

    A: i think you know why this time it’s different here:
    1. Rich Foreign Investors
    2. We Are Running Out Of Land
    3. Real Estate only goes up or plateaus
    4. Population Boom/Great Economy
    5. Low Interest Rates
    6. Buy now or be priced out forever!
    7. Vancouver is just like New York/London etc. and we are undervalued comparatively!

    And don’t forget the olympics!!

  71. aaronbest

    Looks like there are some buying opportunities in California!

  72. jim

    aaron: Its always a good time to buy. Yes?

  73. aaronbest

    There is always opportunity. Whether or not it is a good time to buy is something personal.

  74. Domus

    Paulb,

    any hints on today’s listings????

  75. -A-

    Aaron:
    “There is always opportunity. Whether or not it is a good time to buy is something personal.”

    I guess the old labels of “buyer’s /seller’s market don’t fit this new paradigm, It’s now a “personal preference time frame market”

    In such markets we have deferred appreciation, and tax efficient enhanced deductibility on preferred negative cash flow advantaged premium purchases.

  76. Skeptic

    -A- : “now that our bust is just around the cornet(r)”

    Can you give us your definition of just around the corner ? Will you come on here and admit you were wrong if prices keep going up all this year ? And next year ?

  77. Paulb

    Domus…..say goodbye to the 12k mark! A fairly typical day actually but we made the hump. I guess now we bet on 13k. I said the 9th of May for 12k….VHB was almost bang on!

  78. Domus

    Skeptic,

    nobody is wrong or right. Stop being literal.
    We read and contribute to this forum to have a conversation, which entails people expressing opinions. I frankly don’t see the point of doing children games where you have to admit to be right or wrong based on last 6 months prices.

    Timing markets is not difficult, it is impossible (although many people take credit for it).

    Expressing opinions on where markets are heading (without specifying dates) is what constitutes the interesting bit of the conversation: if I believe that markets are going down, and if I plan to buy a house/flat to live in, I might be better off waiting for a while. The presumption here is that 18 months from now I could buy something nicer/bigger/in better location for the same money.

    Stop being a pain.

  79. Domus

    I think VHB will be bang on on Vancouver RE with hindsight…..I think his analysis was bang on from day 1. Buyers beware.

    Usual disclaimers apply (for Skeptic)…..this is my very personal opinion……

  80. Domus

    I said end of May for the 12k…..maybe I am too bullish on Vancouver RE!

  81. Domus

    When did we cross 11k? Anyone remembers the date? Do you think it will take the same time to cross 13k? Or we are accelerating?

    I really wonder what those hundreds of FTBs out there are thinking right now.

  82. VHB

    Well, if we do get the 12K today I’ll be a day off with my prediction. A day late and a million dollars short.

    Oh well.

  83. jim

    Domus: Welcome back.

  84. Skeptic

    Domus, -A-‘s way of stating his opinion was very presumptive, as if it is a fact, when actually it is his/her opinion. This is commonly known as trolling.

    I try to keep an open mind and express my opinions as just that and back them up with facts.

    I could do the same as -A- but it isn’t my style.

    [troll mode on]
    We all know the bears on here are wannabe home owners who didn’t get in when the market was lower. If they weren’t why would they be interested in real estate prices.

    They get madder and madder as prices keep going up and their deposit shrinks as a percentage. They’ll all be priced out for sure, even without the olympics.

    [/troll mode off]

  85. Snick

    Funny, (not funny haw haw) I didn’t receive any updates from my RE source re: today’s numbers/listings. For a minute there, I was beginning to think new listings were drying up…

  86. Snick

    Skeptic,

    Now, THAT’S FUNNY! (haw haw)

  87. Domus

    Skeptic,

    believe it or not, I have no intention to buy. Not now, not in 2 years. I find this bubble fascinating and they way people think about it even more so.
    I also think that information is the greatest power and I think a balanced and data-based conversation can save the skin of many young buyers.

  88. Skeptic

    Domus: “I also think that information is the greatest power and I think a balanced and data-based conversation can save the skin of many young buyers.”

    Great, lets get back to debating the data and skip the crystal ball gazing.

  89. Snick

    “Great, lets get back to debating the data and skip the crystal ball gazing.” -Skeptic

    It’s been attempted by many, but you won’t listen to the facts. Lost cause, IMO.

  90. Skeptic

    Snick, I listen to the facts, I just don’t agree with ‘your’ interpretation of them

  91. Domus

    Some facts:

    – Inventory growth outstripping sales and buildup of available housing units.

    – Prices at levels marginally higher than last summer. Certainly not going down in any substantial way.

    – Average and median incomes not growing in real terms.

    – Immigration still positive but at levels well below historical peaks.

    – Economic outlook for the BC province rather uncertain for forestry, good for natural resources, bad for services (loss of HQs and office jobs).

  92. Domus

    These are some rather unequivocal facts. What do you make of them?

    I think that, if psychology tilts, they might be consistent with lower prices. Why should psychology tilt? Well, if prices for once stop growing, many people will be unable to make a profit from simply buying and reselling. They will exit and the pressure on prices will relent.

    How much lower? I am not sure. My wild guess, based on rental costs, is that a 25% price adjustment is not out of question.

  93. Domus

    …forgot one of the facts…..multi-unit construction (condo apartments) near historical highs according to Sauder Business School…..so even larger supply coming on line.

  94. Skeptic

    Domus, you are pretty right on all of those. I’m not sure where you are getting your immigration numbers, I posted the link last week and its been pretty steady for the last 5 years or so, can you please elaborate ?

    Also, while it is bad that Vancouver has lost its head offices of several large companies, there’s tons of smaller companies fighting to get the office space, have you tried to rent office space downtown ? Whether its big companies or small companies, the offices are full. Losing the head offices is more of a psychological loss.

  95. Skeptic

    Just because the market is not going vertically upwards doesn’t mean its going down vertically, there are positions in between.

  96. Domus

    Skeptic,

    office space is lacking downtown. Prices of commercial space are supported by undersupply. in fact, I think that commercial RE is quite a safe bet downtown.

    This has nothing to do with services business thriving, but rather with panning restrictions (and developers’ greed) which have favored residential construction.

    As for immigration, I am not looking at 5 years ago, when things were pretty much like today, but rather to 10 years ago, when there was a large way of oriental immigration. My argument is that demographic growth is the middle to late 90s has first soaked up excess inventory and then started to push up prices. That pressure has now subsided and we are back to growth levels experienced in the late 1980s.

  97. Domus

    planning restrictions, rather than panning restrictions…..

  98. Skeptic

    Domus, on the immigration thing, prices have been increasing steadily for the last five years and immigration hasn’t really changed. If immigration hasn’t really changed over the last five years, how can it be a factor that will cause a downturn ?!? I agree that if it changed in a significant way, that could be a factor, but it isn’t/hasn’t.

    I tend to agree with you about all the cubes in the sky downtown. The crane count is crazy and everyone knows at least one flipper. With a bit of luck, these speculators will get whats coming to them. I see it as a bit of a game of musical chairs. I think its very different to the SFH market.

    On the other side of the coin, lack of tradespeople means completions are slowed, allowing time for the market to soak up the new apartments. Another fact is that vacancy rates are very low.

  99. millionpitfall

    Had to laugh when it was mentioned bears get mad as the prices go up. Bears can also have the last laugh if the prices go down. Bears believe in the laws of gravity. What goes up must come down.

    Whether bear or bull, you need both in the market. They serve their purpose depending on the state of the real estate market at the time.

  100. Skeptic

    Here’s the facts on condo completions. Looks like mid-90’s were higher than now, see the graph at the bottom of page 2, or am I reading this wrong ?

    http://www.city.vancouver.bc.ca/commsvcs/housing/pdf/2006completionsReport2.pdf

  101. -A-

    Skeptic:
    You are wrong in calling me a troll.

    I referenced a current event in San Diego and provided a link,and asked the discussion board a legitimate question, as to why it would be different here and this time.

    It was only a few short months ago the bloggers were having this same passionate debate in San Diego, and the bulls were adamant there was no bubble and that prices were sustainable and supported by fundamentals.

    The reasons were identical to those the Vancouver believers currently give here in support of their position.

    Documented facts, my friend, Google all you like.

    My position is that Vancouver is in for a huge correction, and I ask your side why it is different this time and here.

    PS thanks for correcting my spelling, I can’t afford a legitimate copy of Word, and the pirated copy has the spell check files missing.

  102. Skeptic

    -A-, you said “now that our bust is just around the corner”.

    This is your opinion, its not a fact. Stating it as a fact makes you a troll.

    I read your post about San Diego. Yep, sure, that is what ‘can’ happen. San Diego is not a province of Canada, it is a different country and there are some differences, two of which are: availability of easy credit to people with questionable capacity to service debt and also the San Diego run up was more substantial than Vancouver.

  103. Domus

    What’s going on? I posted and but now it does not publish my comment. It says: awaiting moderation. What’s the deal?

  104. Domus

    …and population growth in Vancouver (the one before was multiple units construction)

    http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/Population/population-pctgrowth-vancouver.pdf

  105. Domus

    Population growth has slowed down substantially in the past year. We are going to be negative soon…

  106. Skeptic

    Ok, point taken on the population growth (different to immigration), I guess they count movement within Canada somehow. Wonder how they do that ?

    On the housing starts, looks like we are in a similar position to about 1995, do you agree ?

  107. robchipman

    Domus:

    WordPress has an anti-spam measure that holds any post with two or more links for moderation. I usually get to them fast, but with word from -A- that the bust is just around the corner I took the day off to work on my reno/flip 😉

  108. Domus

    OK, sorry, I did not know…….any hints about numbers? Is today the 12k day?

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