Thursday’s Numbers

There were 410 new listings today and 253 sales, for a sell/list of 61.71%.  Of the sales 58,  or 22.92%, went over list.  14 of those were on the Westside. 8 were in East Van,  5 in Richmond, 5 in Port Coquitlam, 2 in Pitt Meadows, 6 in North Van, 1 in Maple Ridge, 4 in Coquitlam,  8 in Burnaby and 5 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $540,360; average sales price was $536,568, a difference of $3,791, meaning the average sale went for 0.90% under list price. 21 properties went for list price. One property went for 11%($23,000) under list while the highest over list was 17% ($56,000) over .

 

There were 17 million dollar plus properties sold (6.72%), with 4 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 35.

If you take the 17 million dollar properties out of the mix the average list price was $457,572, and the average sale price was $453,529, a difference of 4,042, or 1.02%.  Average days on market was 35.

 

If you take out the 16 apartments that were listed for $225,000 or under the average list price becomes $563,132, and the average sale price becomes $559,543, a difference of $3,589, or 0.74%. Average days on market becomes 35.

There were 90 apartments (36%),  7 duplexes (3%), 106 houses (42%) and 48 (19%)townhouses sold.

There were 83 price changes, of which 8, or 9.64%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $569,907; the average new price was $553,570, a difference of $16,337, meaning the average price change was -2.63%.  Average days on market to price change was 41 2ays.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,676, while over 90s dropped  to 1,722, or 14.75%.

0.64% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  The 14 day rolling sell/list was 63.10%.

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46 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

46 responses to “Thursday’s Numbers

  1. VHB

    There’s my 400 listing day!! IIRC, that never happened in 2006 in Chipman’s numbers.

    Now we just need inventory to build slowly over the next 4 days so that we hit 12K on exactly May 15th . . . .

  2. fishonhook

    Thnak s for the number Rob.

    What I find quite amazing, is the number of slaes over list price, even as investory is rising.

    It seems there are people just throwing their money at homes in indecent haste, before it has a chance to drop.

    Reminds me of what was happening in New York just a year ago, the last hurrahs of the the deluded and now things could not be more different.

  3. fishonhook

    Sorry about all the typos, it is early in the am.

  4. Skeptic

    VHB, you should start a blog for these predictions 😉

    Rob, thanks for the numbers. From the detail you have given, the bear argument that million dollar houses are impacting the average price doesn’t seem to hold much water. The lower end properties seem to balance out the higher end, only one day of data, but that’s how it looks to me.

  5. Noname

    Skeptic,

    Please stop generalizing the ‘bear argument’.

    One more time, the ‘bear argument’ says that at some point there will be significantly more supply than demand.

    When that happens, prices will start returning to their fundamental levels until supply and demand reaches a balance.

    Bears will differ on when and how we get there. The point is that we will get there…

    Noname

  6. Deedub

    …at some point…

    That doesn’t constitute an “argument”. Everything under the sun happens “at some point”, there is no value whatsoever in that type of “prediction”.

  7. Noname

    Deedub,

    The reason I said ‘some point’ is because even bears disagree on when this point will occur.

    Some bears think that ‘some point’ will be this summer. While other bears think it will after the Olympics.

    There is no specific timeline.

    The bear argument is to simply hang in there and do NOT buy realestate until the fundamentals (rent-to-own ratio, etc.) make sense.

    Now, I might be starting the generalize the bear argument also, so I will say that the above is my opinion…

    Noname

  8. Priced Out

    Go Spain!!!

    We need this too:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6646865.stm

    But its not going to happen when our Premier is a former(?) property developer. He’ll protect his friends.

  9. Jim

    deedub: Not really. Its called an inexact argument. It runs decidedly counter to current trends to say the market will slow and prices will fall. That in its self is a courageous enough argument.
    However, the fact that sales are now slowing(albeit from historical highs) and inventory is rising (from historical lows)leaves only the timing of the price declines up for debate.
    The bull argument is fairly lame, as it is equaly indefinite. I will say asking prices are currently moderating and benchmark prices will fall by September. I am using history and the US experience as my guide. I have bet about $2 million
    on this. I have also bet a similar amount that prices wil not fall but will land softly. Thats not an argument its strategic guess. I wil take my lumps accordingly.

  10. e

    I think those sales figures are pretty much all time high as well? (275 in the day?).

  11. rockandhardplace

    Question:

    If the Sell/list ratio from Wednesday was 62.88%.

    And Thursday’s Sell/list ratio was 61.71%

    How could the overall average go up to 63.10%?

  12. Noname

    Rockandhardplace,

    If the sell/list ratio 15 days ago was really crappy (eg: 0%), then it can go up, I think.

    Noname

  13. Noname

    Rockandhardplace,

    Counting back, the 15th day which was dropped from the 14 day rolling sell/list ratio was Apr 20.

    On Apr 20. the sell/list ratio was 57.65% which was dropped from the current sell/list ratio hence the increase.

    Noname

  14. jojuchst

    Here are the highest listing days I have since May 2006:

    26-Apr-2007 343
    15-May-2006 348
    23-Jun-2006 352
    22-Sep-2006 375
    7-May-2007 376
    9-Mar-2007 392
    10-May-2007 410
    13-Apr-2007 421
    2-Mar-2007 538

    So you’re right VHB – no 400+ listing days in 2006.

    I too am very surprise to see over lists at 22.9%

  15. WoW

    i’ll stay with my May 15th target for 12,000
    June 15 – target is 13,000

  16. rockandhardplace

    NoName

    Your answer makes sense. Thank you.

  17. awum

    Last year this date, Rob’s inventory was 8894, now it’s 11676. That’s a 31% increase, and it’s about to vault past the peak inventory from last winter. Sales continue at the same (super hot) pace as last year. If you look I think you’ll find that it’s not even across the Lower Mainland. Inventory increase is more massive further out in the Valley; it might even be a “buyers market” out there already.

    Interesting times.

  18. Jim

    Skeptic”the bear argument that million dollar houses are impacting the average price doesn’t seem to hold much water. The lower end properties seem to balance out the higher end, only one day of data, but that’s how it looks to me.”
    Read another way, then, the low end of the market where affordability issues come into play even more so, is seriously out of whack with incomes, and is most vunerable to major shifts in prices.

  19. e

    Jim: I agree, and I think thats why we’re seeing what we’re seeing in the Fraser Valley (lower end of market — more subject to affordability). If this persists for a longer time, then GVRD will also feel the heat.

    Right now, because the sell/list isn’t that much lower than last year, and because inventory is up so drastically, then it appears there is increased demand.

  20. Jaymo

    FWIW, Vancouver Craigslist housing posts are at an all time high at over 18000 listings. This includes all housing related posts (sublets, co-housing etc.), so may not mean much. Craigslist is also increasing in popularity all the time. Interesting, nonetheless.

  21. Jim

    e:
    So the market is behaving quite rationally then lower income households feel priced out and sales slow at he low end. Those that had the ability to trade up, lose it, as they can’t sell to FTBs. They cant move from a condo downtown, to an East Van house. The East Van house seller can’t move to the Westside. The Westside homeowner can’t trade up,build new, buy a second home. I guess if you could visualize it it would like a rush hour traffic jam forming. It would take a while to to work its way through the system to the high end market. As opposed to the hypothesis that Skeptic proved wrong, that the market is behaving in an irratioanl fashion. Interesting.

  22. coco

    Jim,

    Funny you would mention this about the FTB’s. I know someone who has a townhouse for sale in South Surrey and bought a house in Vancouver with no subject to sale.

    The townhouse has been on the market for 3 months with no offers and Vancouver house possession date is looming. I wonder how many other people are in the same boat one way or the other.

  23. robchipman

    Jim:

    The food chain metaphor for the market can be valuable. Its not definitive.

    There is are two other obvious holes in the metaphor masquerading as an argument: animals need to eat, but real estate does not have to be sold, and if you take a critical link out of a food chain and fail to replace it the whole chain collapses. More important, nature isn’t as creative, short term, in replacing the link as markets are.

    Markets can behave the same way as a food chain, but as we all recognize, if one link is removed the market will try very hard to replace it, because sentient beings who benefit from the “food chain” benefit from it (witness the process of enhancing affordability that happens with every product).

    Second, the real estate market does not have to move at the same volume all the time. Financing is long term, demand for housing (as opposed to property buying) tends to be stable long term, and most holders are long term. Revenue and costs are more stable than many other businesses, and react less to short term fluctuations (if rental vacancies go up people don’t decide to sell their homes and rent).

    This is not to say that FTBs aren’t important. They clearly are. However, pricing them out (as may be happening in the FV) may not lead to a crash. Really, the question taht remains unanswered is: what does a crash look like? Significantly lower prices or significantly lower volumes, or both?

  24. e

    rob: good points. don’t forget other economic principles such as substitute products (imperfect vs perfect substitutes). this helps bridge the gap in the food chain. if fraser valley product gets cheap, then this notion of imperfect substitutes will fill in the gap.

    what if a fraser valley home becomes $200k.
    average west side home becomes $1500k.

    there is a good certainty that this gap will narrow as some people sell west side to buy fraser valley. as a result, west side prices will fall and fraser valley prices will rise.

    that differential becomes large enough for people to make compromise. if that guy bought the west side home for 1000k with 500k down, then by making this move he/she can take out 800k equity. 800k is a large chunk of change, and can pretty much pay 50k for the rest of one’s life. i.e. people can retire at 35 and spend more time with family.

    also, home buyers (whether new or not) may not want to pay the 1300k premium to live in west side. as such, the cheaper areas get bidded and the higher price areas have less demand (and may cause prices to go down).

  25. Jim

    Rob: as always you are a voice of rationality. What’s a bust look like? I don’t care.
    I would be happy with more selection and more time to decide. I hate looking at properties and having to tack on 10% of the asking price as the assumed sales price.
    Thus I am on the sidelines with half my cash for now. You only make money on the buy side-and that’s not possible right now. There are way too many amatures making way to much money in Real Estate today,and it will change in our llifetime, or possibly this fall.

  26. coco

    More than FTB’s are being priced out of the market. I know professionals with good jobs who earn a lot more than I do, saying they can’t qualify for the mortgage to buy the house they really want. Some settle for less and others are waiting for the prices to come down.

  27. Jim

    Over at Langley Financial Planning there is an interesting article about one of the pillars of support for our raging real estate market. Employment. I wonder what the broader MSM will make of this, and what the impact on buyer/seller psychology will be-if any?

  28. realitycheck

    I agree with awum in that I don’t think the runup in inventory is equally divided across the lower mainland. The city and north shore may have less inventory than the rest of the gvrd which in turn may have less inventory than the valley. That would explain why properties are still selling above list. 3 different markets 3 different scenarios.

  29. robchipman

    e: Good points. Slightly related/slightly off topic, I think that long term the FV (yes, Slurrey) is going to become much more desirable. How can it not, given population shifts, business shifts, etc?

    Jim:

    I’m with you and not with you. I care what a bust looks like, because if I had my choice I’d pick lower volumes, flatter prices and improving fundamentals over stable fundamentals and a huge loss of equity. On the other hand, if you’re like me and prefer long term holds you obviously buy more than sell. More choice and less pressure is therefore better. I don’t agree that you only make money on the buy side, given that we’ve achieved some great prices at sale time, however we’re probably splitting hairs. Build in profits on the buy side and you can more easily trust to luck on the sale side – if you get the windfall, great, if not, well, you’ll still survive.

  30. Strataman

    coco said”More than FTB’s are being priced out of the market. I know professionals with good jobs who earn a lot more than I do, saying they can’t qualify for the mortgage to buy the house they really want. Some settle for less and others are waiting for the prices to come down.” So very true, my wife and myself are currently at 120,000.00 annual income, basically middle class, so we are looking at Winnipeg, in fact I fly out there soon for an interview. It is likely I will take the position which pays exactly what I make here. Our mortgage payment currently 2100.00 for a 1 bedroom with den in Yaletown, will drop to 0, yep 0. So the question is, is Vancouver really worth that differance? Yes Winnipeg is not so pretty, but I will be in Mexico, Hawaii, or some place else for a month every year, and basically that cost is free! Vancouver is going to lose a very high number of skilled MIDDLE CLASS persons. In the end you may very well have a stable rich real estate market, with only those who would rather give up life as we know it working here. Suprisingly those people seem to wonder why they cannot get decent trades persons, strata managers, and general building staff. DUHHH!! 🙂

  31. Jim

    Strataman:
    That is a really cool lifestyle actually. My parents are from Winnepeg. Beautiful summers and a month in a hot spot can take the chill off. (winterpeg)
    Rob:
    I mean on the buy side in a normal market you can negotiate. As a seller you seldom have much power beyond market forces. There are always way more potential sellers than buyers-because there are more owners than people qualified to buy..

  32. ceejay

    There is a fairly reasonable way to reduce the affordability gap in expensive markets. Pay employees more. This is done by corporations and the US federal government. Its happening here at the political level, anyway. Soon Cabinet ministers may (just barely) be able to afford a house on the west side 🙂

  33. aaronbest

    Strataman**Don’t take this the wrong way. I’m just trying to understand your logic. Are you saying you bought a lifestyle in Yaletown, but now you feel you would be better off downgrading in lifestyle to pay off your mortgage?

    Why wouldn’t you just take your equity and move to New Westminster, Coquitlam, PoCo, Maple Ridge, Surrey, Langley, etc…? From my point of view that would be less of a compromise, and would still help you achieve the affordability you so desire.

  34. Paulb

    today is gonna be a large listing, tiny sales day to finish the week.

  35. jim

    Allright paulb. Come outta the closet. Realtor?:)

  36. -A-

    “Really, the question taht remains unanswered is: what does a crash look like? Significantly lower prices or significantly lower volumes, or both?”

    Rob, stop teasing the bears. Things like that don’t happen we have in your words”the best real estate anywhere”

    The market may take a breather, but not for long.

    The 50 year mortgage, the rich newcomers, the Olympics, Bob Rennie, will breathe new life into the market, and all the excess inventory will be exhausted before too long.

    If I were you, I’d seriously consider telling my clients to snap up some of those rare condos around Brentwood, what a steal.

  37. robchipman

    -A-/Jack/Greyskies:

    Its a simple question. You’re good at making definitive predictions of what will be. Could you maybe give me a description of it, or haven’t you thought it through yet?

  38. coco

    Aaronbest,

    Strataman could live in a paid for mansion in Winnipeg compared to the price he would have to pay in the burbs here with a mortgage.

  39. Paulb

    Yup….A bearish Realtor, I guess I have not been in this business long enough to be constantly cheerleading our “hot real estate market”.

    The question is when will we correct??? It is quite hard to say. Could be 2 months could be 2 years, although I would bet on the former….

    PS- Todays list sell is one for the bear record books… 🙂

  40. -A-Jack etc

    No problem Rob, no double talk.

    Prices will come down substantially. Over what period of time is the only question.

    If the macro conditions ie. interest rates/inflation/stagflation change abrutly, it will be a fast and brutal correction.

    If in fact central bankers, and politicians can think long term and gradually mop up the excesses of cheap printed money and huge government spending, they may just be able to spread the pain over a longer period of time.

    I tend to think that rates will be left alone, inflation will get away, until a serious recession will clear the deck again.

    What’s your scenario? Can you give us one without the double talk?

  41. millionpitfall

    From the Fraser Valley April Stats report:

    “Partly due to affordability, but also a lifestyle choice, more clients are asking REALTORS® to show them condo options in the Fraser Valley,” says McCaughan.

  42. millionpitfall

    Paulb,

    Appreciate your candid remarks, cheerleading gets a little tiring. Kind of like a stock holder trying to pump up a stock they just purchased so others will buy it too and the price will keep going up.

  43. $froma$ia

    Thanks VHB for your input. We take any piece of input you have. Any predictions of falling prices and by how much?

  44. Deedub

    Anybody else getting palpitations of nervousness waiting for the legendary numbers Paul promised us?

    🙂

  45. robchipman

    -A-

    No double talk. The market will change. It always does. I don’t know when and I don’t know by how much. I say that because its accurate, and I’d rather say less and be right than say more when I don’t know what I’m talking about.

    I don’t know if central bankers will restrict money supply.

    I doubt that politicians will restrict spending. Why would they? It would be pretty revolutionary, and we’d see people marching in the streets here in BC to protest it.

    You’re right – if macro conditions change quickly, and for the worse, the change will be brutal. And if it rains next week, the ground will get wet. That’s not prediction and its not analysis. Its stating the obvious. You don’t know what will happen anymore than I do.

    I am glad to see that you restricted your definition of a crash to be price defined.

  46. Strataman

    aaronbest;
    Both my wife and I work in the West-End so the lifestyle we bought was mostly to avoid hours of commuting, which we did fo awhile as we formerly lived in North Burnaby, Coquitlam. I am also on call 24 hrs a day as I manage a whole mess of properties downtown. I will go to the same type of job, small commute, and we probably will take a minus $100,000.00 mtg out so we can live in a modern home in a good neighbourhood. It is unreachable here, we are in our fifties, and can easily pay that size mtg. off in 10 years. As a manager I also recognize that long term maintenance fees for the Yaletown high rses, (in the same 10 year period) will go sky high. Investors comprise a large part of current Strata councils, and they keep maintenance fees artificially low until they flip the properties. We never bought to make a killing but rather to have a permanent home. Also we assumed most residents would be owners, when in fact our Tower has permanently (it seems) rental tenant turnover. I rarely see the elevator uncovered by moving mats, these are not sales but constantly changing tenancy. The neighbourhoods we have looked at in Winnipeg have little turn over thus a stronger sense of community.

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