Monday Shorts

Sorry all.  Double header tonight in two different rinks, so a short version of the dailies.

Strong Monday in terms of listings – 376.  Sales? 275!  Sell/list 73.14%.  112 price changes.

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14 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

14 responses to “Monday Shorts

  1. chip

    Yep, looks like sales are warming up. All the areas I track have significantly lower inventory over the past week.

  2. John

    Chip:
    What areas do you track?

    I guess it’s that time of year. I’ve noticed everything in my neighbourhood is selling in under 2 weeks. When a home sells I always call the listing agent to see how much it sells for, quite often the listing has sold for list price or higher.

  3. mk-kids

    please shoot me now.

  4. Domus

    Do you know if second-lien debt (piggy-bank debts) are a common practice among Van buyers?
    Just curious if anyone knows…..
    There is an interesting article on this at Calculated Risk.

  5. Jim

    Rob: Thanks for letting me comment.
    mk-kids: You might want to keep the safety on your gun just a bit longer. Check out this website:
    http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble It graphs historical re prices for select cities in the US.
    Then take the latest GVRD stats and overlay it in some of the cities.
    What you will discover is that Vancouver follows certain US cities with a lag of about 12 to 18 months. Unfortunately the data on these charts go only to 20o6. Many of those cities, if you check their local RE boards today, are experiencing price declines now. In each case the steepest rise in prices comes just before the curves turned downward. My extrapolated conclusion is now decidedly bearish, despite personally having recently bought some land.(Like Ozzie says you can always find a good deal somewhere).
    Not saying its a slam dunk but history is on the bears’ side if you are waiting for some sanity to return to Vancouver’s market in the next 12 months.
    Its currently,solidly a seller’s market. But inventory is still up, and in a 3 month up trend. The rate of YOY price change is range bound at 10 to 12 % and there HAS been a slight up tick in mortgage rates. CPI has doubled which will tell you households are starting to squirm. Of course the fabulously wealthy and movie stars don’t give a rat’s ass about all that.

  6. robchipman

    Jim:

    Thanks for the link. Which cities do you think we follow? If I compare our average price graph I actually don’t find much similarity. We’re much more volatile, and between ’87 and now we have two clear (and arguably three) peaks plus the current bump to their one peak and current run-up. (Peak in ’89, ’94/’95, 2000 (arguable) and today).

    Don’t get me wrong: if you say that the steepest part of the curve was just before the drop, aren’t you just saying the change was quick at the turing point? Our average price graph shows that too – troughs are flat, peaks are sharp. High prices are the cure for high prices, and we’ve had a good economy and high RE prices for a while now. What’s it time for? Probably lower prices and a bad economy. Winter follows Summer, right?

    In other words, the fact that the rooster crows at dawn doesn’t mean that the rooster makes the sun rise. The sun coming up in Boston 3 hours before it comes up here doesn’t mean that Boston makes the sun rise here. Things move in cycles.

    YOYs for April were 14.7%, 13.8% and 11.9% for detached, attached and apartments. If you’re looking for “sanity”, reflect on the ’90 correction (15%-18%), ’95-’97 (approx. 20%) and 2000 (5%). Even the grandaddy (’81-’82) was 35%-40%. Apply those numbers: what do you get? $800k average house price – 40% is still $480,000. Minus 15%? $680,000. At $480,000 it should rent for what? $3,000/month?

    I guess I have to ask: how much blood do we need to see in the streets for sanity to return? With that much blood, will we recognize it as sanity?

  7. -A- new IP

    Rob, am I asking the obvious? Have you finally realized a correction is around the blind corner?

    Jack Mepoleoff

  8. jim

    Nice rebuttal Rob. I think we resemble San Deigo, LA, San Fran, Miami. Not an exact match. They didn’t have the Hong Kong factor and the ensuing 90’s hiccup. What was the YOY’s for Jan through March in the GVRD?
    I am sure we will see some mean revison. When and how much is pure speculation. I would think if after a lull this fall, we take off *again* in the GVRD, then this time its truly different, and its to infinity and beyond.
    Possible. I am not betting on it-but it is possible. Thsi crystal ball stuff is tricky. How do you realtors do it? 🙂

  9. Deedub

    What you will discover is that Vancouver follows certain US cities with a lag of about 12 to 18 months…

    That isn’t normally called “discovering” – it’s normally called “curve-fitting”.

  10. Snick

    JIm,

    I think you should visit the Robert Campbell site I told Rob about the other day. He is the one who REALLY knows San Diego RE. He wrote, “Timing the Real Estate Market”. Google the title and click on “Preview” at the top. It is interesting to see his explanation of the RE cycle…as it happens anywhere.

  11. Canadian David Lereah

    Snick,

    you are forgetting that Vancouver is DIFFERENT! I simply just eliminate Mr. Campbell’s stage 3 & 4 and count my money! This time it’s different 😉

  12. jim

    Snick: I did check out Robert Campbell.
    gotta side with Rob on htis one-Campbell is actually a bull in bears clothing. He seems to say sell San Diego real estate because it will continue to go up in price, thus ruining the cap ratio? Freakin’ sunset worshipin’ Californicators.

  13. millionpitfall

    Inventory keeps growing, listings are outpacing sales every day. At best the market maybe warm or steady, but certainly not boiling or as hot as some make it out to be.

    Perhaps, it is withdrawal symptoms from the sell your home in 15 minutes with 10 multiple offers thousands over list or wishful thinking sales will heat back up to that pace again.

  14. robchipman

    Millionpitfall:

    If a warm or steady market is one with most listings selling, and those that do sell fetching within 2% of list price within 40 days, I’d hate to see what you call a buyer’s market.

    Listings almost always outpace sales. It is an anomaly to see the opposite. And yes, inventory is growing, but it hasn’t hit a pace to change the trend of the last few years yet (witness average prices continuing to climb).

    I’m not saying a correction won’t come. I am saying that it very clearly hasn’t come yet, and arguably doesn’t even look like its started yet.

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