Thursday’s Numbers

We talked about the listing entry back up at the Board and what the staff entered first.  You’ll soon see what they concentrated on today. Based on the extra hours and yesterday’s lower lisitng count, I even speculated that the listing rush might have abated.  I should have stuck with my earlier prediction of higher listings. 

There were 343 new listings today and 158 sales, for a sell/list of  46.06%.  Of the sales 17,  or 10.76%, went over list.  3 of those were on the Westside. 3 were in East Van, 2 in Richmond, 3  in North Van, 2 in Coquitlam, 2 in Burnaby and 2 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $505,326; average sales price was $498,971, a difference of $6,355, meaning the average sale went for 1.5% under list price. 26 properties went for list price. One property went for 11%($126,000) under list while the highest over list was 15% ($81,000) over.

There were 6 million dollar plus properties sold, with  none over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 32.

There were 77 price changes, of which only 5, or 6.49%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $595,627; the average new price was $574,596, a difference of $21,031, meaning the average price change was -2.93%.  Average days on market to price change was 44 (is that number dropping?)

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,475, while over 90s dropped to 1,835, a percentage drop to of 15.99%.

0.63% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today.  14 day rolling sell/list was 58.72%.

Advertisements

37 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

37 responses to “Thursday’s Numbers

  1. Craig

    I know that anecdotal evidence only goes so far and that this won’t be popular with some…

    My mother (a realtor) just told me about a nicely renovated house in Kits (I think the corner of 6th and ??McKenzie) that was listed for under $1.2 and just sold for about $1.5.

    Given ample anecdotes of this ilk (though not as dramatic), I have a hard time believing this market is soft. Yes, it has “turned” in the sense that is isn’t accelerating anymore but it still appears quite healthy.

    Yes, a positive YOY price increase isn’t proof that price decreases will not happen soon but, on the other hand, a positive YOY doesn’t prove the reverse either. We may, in the end, mirror the US market but there is too little evidence to be (relatively certain) just yet.

  2. Snick

    The West Side is “different”.

  3. Anonymous

    I don’t see that much value in hearing about a $1.2 million property selling for $1.5 million as it is well over the median house price. Possibly someone with money and really wants the location. The same may hold true for a $10 million house selling for $500K over list. I see value in a $500K listed house selling 10% above or below as a valuable indication of the market direction.

  4. coco

    Some more desirable properties may sell over list, but listings are outpacing sales and increasing volumes will eventually put pressure on prices sooner or later.

  5. Concerto

    Craig:

    Is your Mother seeing healthy home sales ? Is she happy with the market at the moment ?

  6. Snick

    The Q1 US GDP numbers @ 1.3% don’t paint a rosy picture for the economy down there.

    Nouriel Roubini is looking like a prophet.

    “The bigger they are, the harder they fall”

    What can be more simple than that?

  7. blueskies

    US economic news from CBC:

    here

    for skeptic

  8. Jim

    I would say you can forget about fundamentals in the Vancouver marketplace. They did nothing to moderate the rise, and will do nothing to moderate the fall. Its now going to be pure psychology.
    I remember ’82 when it turned-it turned in 2 weeks.
    Is this is our “two weeks”?
    Anomalous “over asking sales”, Craig, are indicative of a market top.
    My bull coment is as follows:prices will continue to rise for a few months, even as sales fall ,and inventory explodes.

  9. I think the reason why we are still seeing overlists in the west side is because demand for those houses is less elastic. To someone who really can afford a $1.2 million home, another $300,000 is not a big deal if they like the house.

  10. Paulb

    Whoa, this is very rapid growth. I am curious to see if we end this week with another strong listing day. We can’t keep this pace…. or can we? If we do, this is the end of the real estate market as we know it.

  11. Jaymo

    One comment on the last thread pointed to buyer exhaustion as the potential smoking gun for a Vancouver RE meltdown. I think that is an excellent way to put it, and would point to a more bearish take on the ‘it’s different this time’ argument i.e. Despite strong fundamentals (robust economy and strong employment) the Vancouver housing market simply ran out of able and willing buyers……

  12. Anonymous

    Vancouver housing market simply ran out of able and willing buyers……

    Not yet it hasn’t…

  13. e

    It seems inventory isn’t growing exponentially. Just a steady 25-35% over last year’s level. I think it would matter how long it lasts, and whether people start to notice the large selection out there. Because technically we are at pretty much 2002-2004 supply (inventory) / demand (sales) numbers. As an earlier poster mentioned, its all psychology (which is the cause for market momentum).

  14. Jim

    Yeck:”To someone who really can afford a $1.2 million home, another $300,000 is not a big deal if they like the house”
    Sorta. But actually to someone who inherited $300k, and has some equity from a previous home ,and dual income 6 figures each-blowing 400k by over paying at the top of a real estate cycle is still going to sting. How many bottles of wine is that? 2 Porches? Teir 1 education for 3 kids?
    Yeck’s comment opitimizes market top hubris.

  15. Paulb

    E-

    The thing is, inventory is growing very quickly for this time of year and sales are down. 40% higher inventory and 25% less sales is quite a gap. If we keep this pace this market will implode.

  16. Well, nobody said a market downturn wouldn’t sting for these people. I’m just saying places like the westside will exhibit more life at the end of a bull run. Kinda like luxury cars suffering in sales in an economic downturn, but yacht buyers aren’t pinched by affordability yet and can keep buying them yachts.

  17. Paulb

    I agree, westside homes should be last to fall. There is a limited supply of these homes.

    Condos on the other hand….. not only are they over built but you can always find somewhere to prop up a new tower.

  18. Jim

    Paulb: Fair comment. But your argument is based on fundamentals. Supply/Demand. Fundamentals will take a backseat to negative psychology. Pschology wil remove the demand.

  19. Dyugle

    Rob
    Thanks for the numbers. I see the overlists as an example of the market strength. It is really nice to have the totals and an area breakdown. For the bears it would be really nice to have a forclosure list with an area breakdown to see which markets are weak. If it is not to big a problem.
    Thanks again for the numbers.

  20. Strataman

    Hi Rob! You already do too much work for us …but could you break down a couple of days arbitrarily if neccessary to see the sales/listing differance between SFH and Condo’s? My guess is SFH sales/listing ratio % is much higher and condo’s much lower, so prove me wrong! 🙂

  21. Domus

    Rob,

    Thanks for the numbers.

    Regarding the metrics question you asked me in the other thread: yes, I think people should consider RE with good metrics. I just believe that there is virtually none of that out there and even the one that is there might turn out to be cheaper in 12 months.

    The market “will” not implode. The market “is already” imploding. This is the first stage.

    Can it get back in shape? Well, everything is possible and after the past few years I don’t feel like ruling out a sudden resuscitation.

    Do I think it will happen? No, I really think this is it. Vancouver RE has had it and it is entering a few years of stagnation. Probably a long, relentless decline in RE value.

    For the young buyers out there: sit this out a bit longer……you won’t regret it.

    P.S. Someone said that history is a teacher of life….this is valid for RE as well as anything else.

  22. Anonymous

    How many of these “over asking price” properties on Westside, North Vancouver, and West Van were sold to Asian buyers who actually paid cash in full and let houses vacant?

    Could you confidently say that there was no “Money laundering” involved?

  23. vintage

    Quote:
    “Could you confidently say that there was no “Money laundering” involved?”

    I honestly think money laundering IS what’s selling these overlists.

  24. manafromheaven

    Jim,

    You’re right that fundamentals will eventually take a back seat to negative psych, probably sooner than later, but let’s not forget that nothing generates more neagative psych than negative fundamentals, and those fundamentals have never been more negative.

    Aside from supply/demand stats, fundamentals are not always evident or desirable to “joe homeowner” or regional realtors, but they’re out there in abundance and they’re all bad:

    -deteriorating affordability
    -deteriorating demographics
    -a slowing US ecomomy reducing demand for commodities
    -foreclosures resulting from the subprime mortgage collapse in the US will not begin show up until July, and will send headlines and shockwaves across the continent, if not the entire world.

    Any claims that we will not be affected by such developments are ludicrous.

    Off topic, and probably entirely unfair to Rob, I could not help but wonder if it is a coincidence that bearish daily stats are often followed immediately by less sensational editorials, or if it is an attempt to obscure the bad news.

  25. Jim

    manafromheaven:
    My read on Rob is he calls ’em like he sees ’em. He leaves the guess work to us.
    The fundamentals were swamped on the way up by:”Olympics”, “RE never goes down”, “Don’t get priced out forever”.
    On the way down logic will be trumped by: “prices are going down, lets wait for the clearly obvious bottom”,or “That $2 milion dollar house wil be had for $1 milion in a couple years”. In the end those late to the party always subsidize the early adopters-wether the market is going up or down.

  26. Ryan

    I live in North Van and have been watching the market in the 800k to 1.4M range as well as West Van’s in the under 1.5M area. I see that the only homes selling quickly in North Van are ones that are listed under market, then theres a bidding war and it sells at slightly above market. The reason this is happening of course is because there are a lot of buyers that aren’t reading this blog or doing other research on their own about the long term trends in the market.

    Just look at the really, really big picture. The US and Canadian economies are slowing, affordability in Vancouver is lower than anywhere else in the country, rents should be maxing out shortly if they haven’t already because salaries are not doubling every 4 years unlike real estate prices. While the Dow has hit all time highs, the fundamentals don’t back it up. The real estate situation in the US has a long ways to go still (in the negative direction).

    So do I think Vancouver is going to crash this month? no. next month? no. Next 6 months? very likely no. I think we’re going to have to wait at least 6 months to see real (inflation adjusted prices level off and/or move downwards). I expect we’ll see nominal price decreases by this December as is usual for that time and definitely post elections in December 08. I really feel the market will already be well into heading south by the time the olmpics hit.

    That means if you are a speculator/flipper you still have months to get out without being burned. It will take some time for the average Vancouverite to catch on.

    One indication of the psychology of the market though is your friends. Just ask 5 to 10 of your relatively uninformed friends where they think the market is heading. I have. 6 think prices are too high and the market is going to go down. They’re all renting and 1 wants to buy his first condo because his girlfriend is putting pressure on him. He’s asked my advice and I say rent. Even so I haven’t sold any of the 8 properties I own in BC, 2 of which are in north van. I’m holding long term, but I’m not buying now.

  27. robchipman

    mana:

    If I am actually following bear stats days with “editorials”, it is not coincidence. Its because I’m trying to add some value to the blog, and I’ve been doing that in an environment of rising inventory.

    And hey, they aren’t editorials! They’re discussion starters! (MOI has worked pretty well; nuts and bolts info about agency…apparently not so hot 😉

  28. manafromheaven

    Jim,

    Those ain’t fundamentals you’re quoting, they’re irrational nonsense!

  29. slugora

    I have to go along with mana’s definition of fundamentals over Jim’s.

    Ryan,
    You might be surprised how fast this market can turn when a bit of panic sets in. You only need to look at 81, which pales in comparison to the current bubble.

    The market might languish for some time after the bottom, but with the full power of the internet to spread fear, we could be in for the biggest North American crash ever.

  30. jim

    For all you US Bubble watchers. The US decline predicts the direction we are heading, not the rate at which we will decline. In the past it has happened in an accelerated fashion in Vancouver, and it has gone further(deeper) in Vancouver in the past.. ..
    We actually catch up and then pass the US in past declines. Its quite breathtaking if it happens.

  31. Skeptic

    Which part of the US market should we compare to Vancouver ?

    Or should we compare the US market as a whole to the Canadian market as a whole ?

    The US market is down less than 2% so far (no question, more pain could be coming). If Vancouver goes down 2% we’re back to what, January 2007 prices ?

  32. Reknab

    Compare Vancouver market to similar markets ala Phoenix, Fla etc… other previously “hot areas”.
    The 2% drop in the overall US picture is because of some areas have been stable and not had dramatic increases, or have not “yet” been affected….so the 2% is an average. So by the logic of comparing USA to Canada or US city to Canadian city is valid, but comparing overall US picture (2% national) to Vancouver specifically is not practical IMO.

  33. Snick

    Skeptic,

    It has been mentioned before that there is an almost uncanny “mirroring” of the BC (Vancouver) market to that of California in every previous boom/bust.

    It is true.

  34. Snick

    Interesting to me, too, how the “Olympics” BS has begun to die down…

  35. jim

    Skeptic:
    If the Vancouver market goes down 1 % its a disaster for those that are living beyond their means but say: “at least our house is going up in value by more than our mortgage payments each month”.

  36. Skeptic

    Snick, the facts from California are: “As reported earlier this month by DataQuick Information Systems, the median price paid for a home in Southern California last month was $505,000, up 4.6% from March 2006.”

    Here’s the source: http://www.latimes.com/classified/realestate/news/la-fi-homes25apr25,0,6921822.story?coll=la-class-realestate-news

    Lots of bad news in the story but price isn’t one of them.

    So if California is 12-18 months ahead of Vancouver, we could see prices going up here still for another couple of years ?

  37. robchipman

    slugora:

    Are you saying it was panic, and panic alone that changed the tone of things in ’82? You might want to consider the effect of 20%+ interest rates as well. They give you something to panic about. We don’t have that right now.

    There has been a lesser jump in mortgage rates in the US, but it has been as much as 4-5 points, I believe. 1% to 5% is less of a hit than 16% to 20% ($205/100k vs . $295), which is one reason why ’82 was worse.

    jim:

    A 1% drop in value may hurt your feelings if you’re living beyond your means, but put some meat on those bones. If you’re really living beyond your means you have to sell, regardless of what the market is doing. If its the squishy affordability thing, that is, if you prefer not to service a mortgage on a house that is worth less than the mortgage you have to a) walk away from your downpayment and b) be foreclosed on unless you have enough extra scratch to pay the mortage off so you can deliver clear title. In other words, it has to hurt a fair bit before people throw the keys at the banks’ doors (unless they got in with $0 down, which is a potential problem here and which did contribute to the problem in the States – you ahve people buying with nothing down for a cost similar to renting, so if things go south they bail and figure “What did I lose? I was a sub-prime borrower with bad credit anyway”)

    How about them Canucks and Giants?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s