Wednesday Numbers

There were 298 new listings today and 164 sales, for a sell/list of  55.03%.  Of the sales 24, or 14.63%, went over list.  3 of those were on the Westside (the lowest in many days). 6 were in East Van, 1 in Richmond, 2 in Port Coquitlam, 1 in Pitt Meadows, 7  in North Van (still going strong), 2 in Burnaby and 2 in Surrey. 

Average list price of the sales was $534,364; average sales price was $523,904, a difference of $10,460, meaning the average sale went for 1.71% under list price. 14 properties went for list price. One property went for 20%($328,000) under list while the highest over list was 17% ($91,000) over.

There were 8 million dollar plus properties sold, with  1 over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 40.

There were 91 price changes, of which 12, or 13.19%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $523,601; the average new price was $507,747, a difference of $15,854, meaning the average price change was -2.54%.  Average days on market to price change was 45.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,340, while over 90s also rose to 1,862, a percentage of 16.42% (the same as yesterday).

0.70% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. 

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49 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

49 responses to “Wednesday Numbers

  1. Domus

    If it wasn’t for the usual end-of-month drop in listings due to expiries we could hit 12k within 10 days from now!

    This IS a fast growing inventory, I do not remember a similar situation in the recent past (last few years). Am I missing something or this is considerable by any standard?

  2. Snick

    Rob,

    What it be possible for you to break the daily results into categories?

    For example, SFH, Twnhouses, Condos…

  3. chip

    North Van may be “going strong” but inventory in the area is 489 this morning from about 420-430 just a few weeks ago.

  4. Jim

    Rob:
    The board is backed up on entering listings. Are they backed up on entering sales? Are they prioritizing listings, and can we therefore expect a flood of sales to show up on your stats? (Oh masterful guru of al that is real estate?):)

  5. coco

    Jim,

    The board usually removes sales first before entering listings. Is it backed up with sales, highly unlikely.

  6. Jim

    Coco:
    Thanks. Then the market has turned in my opinion.

  7. Marshall Banana

    I suspect a lot of people who were waiting to sell are listing now as the carnage in the US has begun to penetrate popular awareness. It may just be a “surge” for the time being – will be interesting to see.

  8. robchipman

    Snick:

    Possible? Yes. Probable? Not for a while. If I could automate the whole thing then they would be, but right now it takes too much time.

    Jim:

    I disagree with coco. My experience leads me to expect/assume that listings take priority, because, after all, a sale that isn’t reported on line just means two Realtors have to trade calls, while not posting a listing means that sellers and buyers don’t get to trade. More important, therefore, that listings get entered first.

    Also, when we submit listings we watch to see them come up online, because its the hot item of our day. Sales, on the other hand, are done deals by the time they’re reported. Subjects are removed and conveyancers are lined up. I generally don’t know a sale hasn’t been processed unless another Realtor calls me on it, but I always know when my listings are up.

    You’ll also note that the Board message regarding listings referred to “listings” being processed, and members calling about “listings”, not sales. We don’t confuse “sales” and “listings” or use the term interchangeably.

    When things slow down I’ll confirm with board staff how they approach things.

    That said, with admitted back up of data entry, if we see less than maximum listing entry (say 300+) is it safe to assume that they’re gaining on the listing overload and starting to turn attention to the sales?

  9. Paulb

    Listing are strong everyday but the listing numbers are not as high as last month at some points. We had many days of high 300’s and even a couple around 410.

    Now we see less than 300 in the REBGV

  10. Paulb

    Sales are soft

  11. Jim

    Thanks Rob. Careful answer and appreciated. Paulb. You seem to know, and your posts have been fairly accurate.

  12. $fromasia

    Burn Baby Burn!!!

  13. Domus

    So, I have a few questions for this bull-oriented blog:

    1) would you agree we are experiencing a substantial slow-down in the market?

    2) If not, why?

    3) If yes, do you think Vancouver’s RE is comparable in any way to US RE? Explain your thinking.

    4) If you answered yes to point (4), by how much is Vancouver lagging the US market? When do you think we’ll start hearing about repossessions, sales’ stagnation and lowering prices?

  14. Jim

    I will give it a go Domus. First its a balanced blog not a bull blog. So don’t weaken your argument by making broad brush statments.

    1.) Yes. By inventory and sales trending down.
    2.) No. Prices still up. Sales at historical high quarterly run rates.
    3.) Yes-no ned to explain-been beaten to death.
    4.)Confusing question-this is point (4). Proof read your posts.

  15. Domus

    Jim,

    I tend to disagree on the nature of this blog, which I nonetheless enjoy very much.
    It was (and still to a certain extent is) frequented by people heavily involved in RE, who often have bullish view or at least wish to convey them.

    Thanks for the answers. Yes, I should proof-read: The last question should read “f you answered yes to point (3)”.

    I am not sure whether your answer is yes or no to point (1).

  16. megatron

    First of all I would like to say I enjoy reading this blog and all the comments.

    Can anyone comment on this article regarding RE?
    http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070426.wcrea0426/BNStory/robNews/home

  17. blueskies

    Prices rose most sharply in Western Canada, and CREA is forecasting this will continue in the prairie provinces and British Columbia for the rest of this year and into 2008.

    …. would you care to extrapolate this into 2009-10 also please?

    should make for some interesting numbers…..

  18. robchipman

    Domus:

    Listen to yourself! 🙂 You’re a bear and you see the whole RE thing in bull/bear terms. You and I differ there. I’m a self-confessed long term bull, and a short term “I don’t care as long as I follow the rules” guy. Pointing out that the market has to change, that new supply can potentially be a big factor, that prices are very high, that its tough to find properties with good metrics, but that sales are still strong, adn that properties that appear over-valued sell quickly doesn’t sound bullish to me. All those things are said here (not to mention a recent prediction on my part of continued high listing days).

    That said, your questions:

    1) Is this a substantial slowdown? Um, compared to the last few years, yes. Inventory up, sales slowing. Prices remain strong, however. Is this a slow market? No. Is it a buyer’s market? No. The real question that you raise is: what does a market of any description look like? If sales volumes drop tons, but prices drop a tad, do we all look for a bridge to jump off? If volumes drop and prices drop, who exactly suffers? Some realtors and…not so many owners, right, because they aren’t selling anyway. If we can’t re-mortgage equity to finance current consumption (“Hey, where’s my ATV?” – “Behind the 52″ plasma screen”!), is that really bad? Worse, than say, an effective carbon tax? (O.K, that’s a little OT. Yes, we have a slowdown).

    2) I gave you a yes to #1, but there was some “no” there too, I guess. Why? We’re at over 50% sell/list, selling in 35-45 days, within 2% of list. MOI has been up and down. We might be watching a new trend emerge as we enter year 6 of the uptick, but I think its too early to call. (All those who claim the imminent meltdown is obvious, please review your past predictions 😉

    3) Do I think Vancouver RE is comparable to US RE? Like, US nationally? Or Florida? Or Seattle? Or Bellevue Tennesee? And comparable in what way? Like, they crashed so we must? Or, they crashed but we’re different so we mustn’t? Clearly there are many similarities, but there are many differences. First time I spent any real time in California I couldn’t believe the under valued properties. I cured that by spending some more time in SoCal. It isn’t Vancouver. No way, no how. You can’t compare the markets, imho. Tennesee to Vancouver? Even harder. I don’t think across the board simplistic comparisons are valid in any event, regardless of what point you’re trying to make.

    Are there “macro” similarities and concerns? Sure. But, I’ve already conceded that the market changes, and we could see anything once the current trend definitively changes.

    4) I don’t think we follow the US market per se, obviously. Conventional wisdom (and there is a basis for this) is that Vancouver runs counter to many other markets. When we’re up they’re down. When they’re up, we’re down. Past reports of how Vancouver performed worse than other Canadian cities during the 90s early ’00s is indicative of this – count TO from a trough and us from a peak and we lose. (’94-2004, for example).

    However, foreclosures are up here. Not huge, but I monitor them over a large part of the province and I get a few everyday. That’s big compared to the past few years. You need to ask why, given that we haven’t had the i% changes they had in the States, but that’s a different question. Sales stagnation? Lowering prices? I don;t know when you’ll hear about it, but I know where you’ll hear it (and so do you, ’cause you’re already here!)

    megatron:

    My comment is that we’ll continue selling here, although slower, and Ontario will finally pick up a little. Alberta will remain strong unless the oil industry really gets hammered. That will spin off to Saskatchewan and Manitoba (both ways – Alberta keeps going up, the two other places will as well. We get a new version of the NEP and Saskatoon values will collapse).

  19. Gus

    Interesting article on housing slowdown in Canada. http://tinyurl.com/2zh62v

    Combined with the article above from reportonbusiness, sounds very much like the US last spring with the usual: it’s all dandy, housing is gonna keep going up forever.

    Let’s see what happens here a year from now.

  20. siri

    Housing market starting to cool down
    Click here to find out more!
    Thursday, April 26 – 01:47:04 PM Lyle Fisher

    VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – Our province’s scorching housing market is starting to cool down, according to the latest forecast from the BC Real Estate Association.

    The Association’s Chief Economist Cameron Muir says BC housing starts will likely drop 7% this year and a further 6% in 2008. He says the BC market is starting to return to more balanced conditions, and the demand for housing has dropped a bit.

    Muir says that’s good news for some home buyer’s deep pockets because there’s more inventory to choose from, and less sales pressure to put a bid on a home right away.

  21. Domus

    Rob,

    thanks for your answers.

    Actually i don’t see things in terms of bull and bear, but rather in terms of reasonable and not.

    No offense meant, I really like your blog and work. But the bullish view, or any view purporting the advantages of RE in Vancouver during 2007, is to me completely incomprehensible.

  22. Domus

    In fact, I think Vancouver might go down as a text-book example of herding frenzy…..that’s what many people have been doing….literally herding to buy their RE ticket….

  23. awum

    You can expect the BC Real Estate Association to put the best possible face on things. It’s their job, really. BCREA’s spin will be whatever encourages the most RE sales. They would never say “don’t buy Vancouver real estate now because prices are about to come tumbling down” for example, even if they actually believed it.

    Still, when the BCREA is saying this, this confirms that renting really is the better deal for most folks with modest downpayments in the next couple of years — unless prices plunge, of course. I’m not seeing the 6%+ annual appreciation I need to break even over the next couple of years when BCREA tells me this.

  24. awum

    KnowwhatImean?

  25. awum

    Rob — your comment about “imminent meltdown” predictions is too true. Nonetheless, the state of this Spring market is (IMHO) even more tantalizing than the market pause winter before last. We’ve had brief pauses and breathers before, but not in the hot RE sales months. The trend reversal is huge even if the snapshot of the market ain’t that bad. This looks a lot like certain US markets last year: slower sales, rising inventory, prices still rising.

    I still wouldn’t say “imminent meltdown” though. Well, maybe under my breath.

  26. Ken G

    Thanks AWUM. I agree with your post. This market is going in the same direction the California market place went a year and a half ago right when i sold my property. And many of my neighbors told me the same things i hear here in Vancouver. “Housing never goes down here” “California is different” “Immigration is so high cause everyone wants to live here” ” We have the mountians and the beaches and the weather”

    Well my business partner held on to his house an extra 10 months longer than I did and it cost him $150,000. He barely got out after the 2nd buyer backed out of the deal on him… If he would have lost this last deal that went through (finally) he and know it would have cost him another $100,000 USD at least to get another buyer in the door. It sat on the market with out even a sniff for 4 months. Not even a veiwing. And this was in San Bernadino the second highest to Nevada as the biggest RE growth in the US.

    The market is collapsing that fast down there. It is unprecidented.

  27. Snick

    If any of you were in this area in 1981, you will recall that APRIL was the market peak and everything went rapidly downhill after that.

    So, why wouldn’t this April be signalling another major downturn? Some things just “are”…

  28. ceejay

    But…Employment and workforce participation are high in BC and incomes are good due, in part, to commodity prices. Stable interest rates, no changes of government coming up, no end to demnd for our goods from worldwide consumers…I have to know…where is the crisis that will cause a major downturn coming from? I know its very hard to get into this market without considerable equity or cash…and who has cash…but there’s a lot of equity and with that, investment. So whither the straw to break the price-camel’s back?

  29. Skeptic

    Domus/Awum, scroll back up the page, click the report on business link above, open the other eye and [b]read[/b]. Lets discuss how Vancouver prices are up 12.4% yoy from last spring, seasonally adjusted.

  30. Noname

    Skeptic,

    +12.4% YOY ?

    Thanks, that pretty much re-affirms that we are heading down the US path. That is exactly how it played out there, too.

    Noname

  31. Skeptic

    How can you compare a city to a country ?

  32. Noname

    Skeptic,

    I was referring to certain segments of the US market.

    What I am basically saying is that your positive YOY number doesn’t mean anything. The market can turn rapidly just like it did in the US.

    Noname

  33. Skeptic

    Ok, which ‘certain segments’, details please.

    The positive YOY number isn’t mine, its in the story. What do you think about it, is it correct, is there a conspiracy ? Can you prove it is wrong ?

  34. Snick

    Ceejay,

    As any “reputable” economist would say, a “boom”contains, within it, the seeds of its own destruction.
    All that is required is a “triggering event” to bring about its demise.

    I believe that triggering event has been/is the subprime mess in the US.

    They unwind, we unwind.

  35. Johnnyrent

    Of interest is the fact that inventory has risen by 350 in the past seven days when the Spring high season is just getting into gear. At roughly 50 additional listings per day average, we’d be at almost 16,000 by the end of July. Not scientific of course, but interesting arithmetic nevertheless.

  36. Skeptic

    According to this story (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003680028_homeprices25.html), US home prices are down a *staggering* 1.1% since February 2006, no doubt there’s much worse to come.

    Also in the story, some parts of the US are still rising strongly, namely some Northern Washington Counties. What do the bears think of this, are these places going to drop soon ? What’s the matter with the people living there, don’t they have cable or read newspapers, aren’t they aware of the sub-prime meltdown ?

  37. Snick

    Skeptic,

    The west (at least in BC’s case) has always been “the last in and the last out” in the economic sense. As the east goes into recession, everything is still wonderful here. (at least for a little while longer)

    Maybe NW Washington is similar.

  38. Skeptic

    Here’s a couple of interesting snippets from another article about the US (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18336819/):

    Both Portland and Seattle also have seen housing prices rise sharply in part because there is limited space for housing, increasing demand.

    While there are some national trends affecting housing prices, such as mortgage rates, Molony noted that hometown factors always play a disproportionate role. A city with strong job growth, healthy population expansion and other reasurring economic indicators is likely to fare better, while cities with more troubling economic outlooks will have more problems.

    “It all gets down to local market conditions,” Molony said.

  39. Snick

    Yes, every place is “different”. Good night, Skeptic.

  40. Noname

    Skeptic,

    Here is a MA SFH graph.

    Oh, look.

    Mar 2005: +8.5 YOY

    And then, Sep 2005: -1% YOY

    And then, Mar 2006: -5% YOY

    You can find more for Vegas, Phoenix, etc.

    The point I am making is that your YOY number doesn’t mean anything. The market can and WILL turn at some point.

    Noname,

  41. Domus

    Skeptic,

    my only observation for you is the following: if you don’t trust me, trust history. Look at the real prices of RE in Vancouver in the past century (just google them) and let me know whether the gradient is always positive…..now, hy should this time be different? Are we full to the brim with immigrants? Have we got Microsoft and Boeing?

    Hmmm, somehow I still thing Vancouver is in for for a big crash….

  42. levi

    “Both Portland and Seattle also have seen housing prices rise sharply in part because there is limited space for housing, increasing demand.”

    Obviously, you do not know anyone in Seattle with a house up for sale. Four months and no offers is not uncommon.

  43. jim

    Gotta side with domus,snick and noname. I did a straw pole of about 15 of my associates,and peers today on the heels of Cam Muir’s comments.
    Its over. I was not sure of this until today. I expect price declines yoy within 24 months. “A good time to buy” will be 2016.
    Skeptic I believe you are a bear lobbing softballs to get the cause advanced. Very smooth in a 3rd year policy analysis kinda way. Its done. Smart money is T- bills,money market or way long term (like Rob).

  44. Skeptic

    Hehe, Jim, I hope the market is listening to your opinion poll. What’s so special about 2016 ?

    levi, the only reason I bring up Portland and Seattle and the US is because what is happening in the US is always part of the bear argument. I just wanted to show that there are many different markets in the US.

    Domus, are you bitter that you didn’t get in a few years back ?

  45. chip

    Interesting seeing the high number of North Vancouver buyers bid over list, even as inventory jumps about 18% in three weeks.

    It’s like fighting over a glass of water while the flood waters surge around their feet.

  46. Domus

    Skeptic,

    the only bitter I know is the one I get before dinner as an appetizer…..

    I am not in this blog for the money but just because I feel it is right to spell out the argument against buying for all those young kids who are waiting in the sidelines. It could be disaster for them if the bought now and I just feel like warning them.

    By the way, I insist you google the price series for Vancouver and give me a shout afterwards…..

  47. robchipman

    No name wrote:

    “The market can and WILL turn at some point”.

    Man, you sound like me. Domus, does that make him a bull? 🙂

    Jim:

    2016? If we’re out of the old trend and in the new trend now, I’m going to say we’ll get great buys much earlier. Stay looking, be picky.

    domus:

    If you evaluate real estate as reasonable or not, how could you turn down a property, anytime, with solid metrics? It would be, by defintion, reasonable, no?

    straw poll:

    Was Muir’s news negative, despite the spin?

  48. Jim

    I am in this blog because it publishes accurate stats and welcomes all comers. Kudos Rob.
    The Muir article was negative because it was on the heels of the major RE news in the US this week about the decline in YOY sales. If the MSM “negative news dam” busts that will scare away some “fence sitters”. What is notable is about the US RE decline, and ensuing subprime fiasco, is it was triggered soley by buyer exhaustion.

  49. robchipman

    Jim:

    That was malicious on my part, so thanks for answering. When the market was nothing but rosy many bears were eager to heap scorn on organized real estate’s press releases, and predicted that they’d never circulate negative news. Of course, they have and will circulate negative news. They’ll just spin it like salesmen always do, which is no surprise to anyone. (Like my flood: salespeople saw it, were horrified for about 30 seconds, and then said “Hey! Now we can re-decorate!”) It’s still a flood, but they put lipstick on it.

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