Monday Numbers

There were 303 new listings today and 174 sales, for a sell/list of 57.43%.  Of the sales 27, or 15.52%, went over list.  7 of those were on the Westside. 6 were in East Van, 1 in Richmond, 1 in Pitt Meadows,  4 in North Van, 4 in Maple Ridge,  1 in Coquitlam, 2 in Burnaby and 1 in the Fraser Valley. 

Average list price of the sales was $488,935; average sales price was $481,606, a difference of $7,329, meaning the average sale went for 1.53% under list price. 18 properties went for list price. One property went for 13%($100,000) under list while the highest over list was 21% ($122,000) over.

There were 6 million dollar plus properties sold, with  one over $2 million. Average days on market to sale was 45.

There were 85 price changes, of which 8, or 9.41%, were increases. The average original list price of price changes was $618,585; the average new price was $601,849, a difference of $16,736, meaning the average price change was -2.51%.  Average days on market to price change was 54.

Inventory in my target area rose  to 11,184, while over 90s also to 1,823, a percentage increase to 16.30%.

0.69% of all active listings in my target area had their prices reduced today. 

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40 Comments

Filed under Daily Numbers

40 responses to “Monday Numbers

  1. Domus

    Rob,

    an early, post-Canucks, pre-celebration post tonight? Not even midnight yet……
    Cheers.

  2. Domus

    ….almost forgot, it seems the gradient of listings is increasing. More than 100 new have been added to the existing stock. It cannot last, or can it???

  3. The transaction amount seems low and so does the average price.

    Several of my clients has sold their assignments last year and made quiet a bit of profit. However, I got a feeling that their confidence about the market is much more cautious.

    Surprisingly, the good weather didn’t bring more sales.

  4. Jim

    The trend is decidedly towards a “balanced” market. A “sellers” market would require a sell list ratio of under 40% for about 3 months (not there -yet). I note that SFH inventory on Vanc Westside is up slightly year over year. The Westside is the last bastion of of this once in a lifetime super hot market.

  5. WoW

    Well, the tale is in the tape, and it appears to signal a balancing marketplace….glad to see it finally start to firmly take shape.

    Any thoughts on when we see 12,000? My guess is May 15th….

    Rob, love your posts/blog, thank you.

  6. coco

    Jim,

    I think you meant to say a “buyers” market.

  7. Jim

    Thanks coco. Sorry. OT-although I long ago gave up using the US experience to predict our market. What’s happening down south is truly “epic”. Its not inconcievable that Canada and Vancouver could plot a course which is independant of the US.
    Just unlikely.

  8. Snick

    I agree. HIGHLY unlikely.

    If you look at charts/graphs of previous booms/busts, it is really quite remarkable how closely we mirror the California market.

    And, as we all know, California isn’t doing too well right now…

  9. blueskies

    Plunge in Existing-Home Sales Is Steepest Since ’89
    By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    Published: April 24, 2007
    From The New York Times

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of existing homes plunged in March by the largest amount in nearly two decades, reflecting bad weather and increasing problems in the subprime mortgage market, a real estate trade group reported today.

    The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent in March, compared with February. It was the biggest one-month decline since a 12.6 percent drop in January 1989, another period of recession conditions in housing.

    …..”The steep sales decline was accompanied by an eighth straight fall in median home prices, the longest such period of falling prices on record.”

    …..”There was weakness in every part of the country in March. Sales fell by 10.9 percent in the Midwest. They were down 9.1 percent in the West, 8.2 percent in the Northeast and 6.2 percent in the South.The negative impact of subprime is considerable,” Lereah said. “I expect sales to be sluggish in April, May and June.”

    Lereah said he didn’t expect a full recovery in housing until 2008. He predicted that sales of existing homes would drop by about 3 percent this year with the decline in sales of new homes an even steeper 15 percent.

    He said that the median price for homes sold in 2007 would fall by 1 percent to 3 percent, which would be the first price decline for an entire year on the Realtors’ records, which go back four decades.

    The steep slump in housing over the past year has been a major factor slowing the overall economy. It has subtracted around 1 percentage point from growth since mid-2006.

    …. but that can’t happen here….. right?

  10. Jim

    blueskis:
    I read that, and that’s what prompted my comment.

  11. Johnnyrent

    I find it incredulous that this sort of news escapes our local dailies (it was however in the National Post). Our number one industry is still forest products and by far the largest market for these products US housing. Granted, the news deals with existing homes rather than new homes or starts. Nevertheless, its indicative of the overall state of the US housing market and therefore very important to our economy.

  12. Jim

    Johnyrent:
    Well, there is a lot of news that doesn’t get reported. Housing doom and gloom south of the border does not sell papers. Hockey does.

  13. Anonymous

    Johnnyrent: “Our number one industry is still forest products…”

    What’s your source for this, I don’t think it is.

    Also in the news today, Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged.

  14. Johnnyrent

    Anon

    Think again. Here are the facts from COFI (Council of Forest Industries):

    “Today, the forest industry remains the key economic engine in BC. Industry sales are responsible for 43% of manufacturing shipments in BC and 13% of BC’s Gross Domestic Product. The economic activity created by the forest sector is the largest single source of provincial employment, accounting for over 200,000 jobs.”

  15. Jim

    Rates being left unchanged reflective of a softening demand for money.

  16. Anonymous

    The numbers don’t agree with the official source : http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/dd/handout/naicsann.pdf

    Perhaps the forest industry is embellishing the numbers.

  17. Russell

    I think the forestry industry includes all the wood and paper manufacturing and spin of jobs. That probably comes close to the numbers they use.

    Great site Rob. As someone waiting to buy I tend to read it several times a week.

  18. Jim

    Russell:

    Welcome. I would wait to *decide* when to buy. A professional friend of mine just(this wek) bought a very expensive town home. Just today, they said “the CNN article was kinda scary”. He then emailed that article to about 15 of us-all Canadians. So, from the trenches, that is the first of the U.S. spillover effect-from a recent high end buyer, who, I think, would therefore qualify as a bull.

  19. Joel

    Anonymous,

    You are barking up the wrong tree, this has been discussed and documented on a few blogs numerous times. It’s the leading contributer to BC GDP: ~6%.

  20. Domus

    Forestry or not, let me draw your attention to the new data on US housing.

    We are entering the second leg of the crash over there, where prices will be finally affected. This will last for a while and will erode the appreciation of the past 5 years, albeit slowly.

    Of course, Vancouver is different and there is no reason why it should happen here as well…..

  21. robchipman

    Yeah but Joel…how well documented is it if you’re saying 6% and Johnnyrent is saying 13%? Where does it really fit in the foodchain and how much will pain in that sector effect us?

    If you look at the table anonymous provides you might conclude that there are some other sectors of the economy that are way more important.

    Also, hasn’t BC forestry been trying to wean itself off of the US when possible (it can be a tough market, right?)

    What is the bottom line? When I was a kid we were taught that logging and fishing made this place run. Fishing is certainly not on the radar anymore.

    Later on I framed extensively in the States and often found myself pounding nails into BC 2x4s, but that was more than 20 years ago.

    How important is logging, really (including milling of lumber) today?

  22. Domus

    In my opinion Vancouver’s RE will crash with or without logging crisis…..it is just a self-feeding frenzy and it will experience a self-feeding demise….

  23. awum

    COFI states that the “economic activity created by the forest sector” accounts for over 200,000 jobs, NOT that the forest sector itself employees that many. They must be including some portion of trucking, construction, paper, lumber, etc. in their numbers.

    More interesting to me is this: Add up the amount that forestry, lumber, construction, and real estate have contributed to the high employment growth in the two to three years. Now, think about the relationship between high employment numbers and home-buying. The real estate boom has created much of its own fuel by supporting a housing construction and employment boom. What happens when the fuel runs out? Fewer buyers, over-supply…

    A housing bubble? It’s a housing soufflé.

  24. Johnnyrent

    Rob

    First, if you work for company that manufactures parts or supplies services to saw mills, you are not counted as being employed by the forest industry. You are, however, directly dependent upon the fortunes of that industry. Trust me when I tell you that no matter how the statistics are spun, the forest industry and forest products, while less important in relative terms than in the past, are the number one contributor to our economy.

    Second, we’ve had next to no real luck selling meaningful amounts of our primary wood product, framing lumber, to other markets. The US still accounts for the overwhelming majority.

    Just this morning I had a meeting with Weyerhaeuser. They reported to me that there is a full year’s supply of new homes completed, not yet sold, and that desipite this, the US distribution pipeline for framing lumber and panelboards is up to the gills in unsold inventory.

    These are very troubling times for the BC forest products sector, there is a direct correlation between these troubles and US housing and there will be economic consequences to BC.

  25. Anonymous

    Maybe the mining sector will pick up the slack, 50% of all proposed new mines in Canada are in BC (something like 25 projects). Mines pay well and probably support similar numbers of indirect employees like forestry.

  26. robchipman

    O.K., Johnny, give me some input on this. I’ve seen the production we do in the forest industry, both on the Island and over a large part of the Interior. I understand that you can find lumber operations essentially inthe middle of nowhere (say 5 hours west of Williams Lake) that simply wow you with the size. I don’t know how that level of production relates to US demand, but it not only impressed me – it blew the socks off a couple futures traders from Chicago that were with me.

    Here’s my question: what impact is bugwood going to have, both in terms of increased supply during a lower demand time, and in terms of eventually running out of it and potentially experienceing a modified boom/bust sort of hangover?

    I know this is a little off topic, but I’m curious for your take.

  27. Snick

    It will be interesting to see what “Olsen” is going to say on tonight”s CTV News re: the current RE market.. He’s no chump…

  28. Snick

    Now then…let me see. Olsen did a fairly good job, IMO. He tried to be objective and reasonable. However, the overall message was/is, “Don’t be a sucker and buy now, you idiot. Give it just a little more time.”

    Thanks, Olsen. It’s refreshing to see a reprter from the MSM tell it like it is.

  29. Noname

    Snick,

    I also felt that it was quite objective.

    Of course, that agent had to throw in the ‘I see it leveling off. I don’t see a crash’ comment.

    Noname

  30. M-

    Some lumber industry info can be found at Random Lengths:
    http://tinyurl.com/38j4xa

    Here are their “curtailment watch” posts for Canada during March and April:

    Buchanan to shut down third shift at Hudson, Ontario
    110 workers at Buchanan’s McKenzie Forest Products sawmill in Hudson, Ontario, will be laid off at the end of May, according to Thunder Bay’s Source. The move affects about a third of the workers at the operation, and will result in the elimination of a third shift. Low lumber prices and quotas imposed under the Softwood Lumber Agreement were cited as reasons for the curtailment. – 4/18/2007

    Kruger announces multiple shutdowns
    Montreal-based Kruger Inc. will close its Gallichan and Parent, Quebec, sawmills during the week of April 2. Planer operations will cease shortly afterward. The company’s two North Shore sawmills are slated for shutdowns in June after log decks have been exhausted. The curtailments will last indefinitely and are expected to remove a collective output of 400 million board feet on an annual basis. – 3/30/2007

    Manning to take downtime
    Manning Diversified Forest Products Ltd., Manning, Alberta, will take downtime April 9-13 due to market conditions. The mill will restart on Monday, April 16. – 3/28/2007

    Abitibi to take downtime
    Abitibi-Consolidated has announced it will curtail its Mackenzie, B.C., operations for two weeks due to market conditions. The two sawmills at the site will be down the weeks of April 2 and April 9. One of the two planers will operate during one of the weeks. – 3/20/2007

    Babine Forest Products to temporarily shut down
    Due to continuing issues with railcar availability, Hampton Lumber Mills has announced that Babine Forest Products in Burns Lake, B.C., will be shut down the week of March 26. As car supply allows, the mill will continue to ship all available open lumber orders. The duration of the curtailment will depend on the company meeting inventory reduction guidelines, and will be reviewed weekly. – 3/16/2007

    Canfor announces downtime
    Canfor Corp. announced that it will be taking downtime at five of its sawmill operations in British Columbia. The curtailments are to address continued poor market conditions. The curtailments will represent about 70 million board feet of production. The company’s Vavenby mill will be down from March 19th to March 25th. The Mackenzie mill will take two weeks of downtime beginning March 26th and will continue in its four-day operating format upon start-up. The company’s Chetwynd, Plateau, and Rustad sawmills will take curtailments beginning March 19th for one week, March 26th for two weeks, and April 2nd for two weeks, respectively. Planer operations will continue through the downtime. – 3/15/2007

    Canfor drops shift at Houston sawmill
    A shortage of railcars has forced Canfor to cancel a shift at its sawmill in Houston, British Columbia, according to media reports. – 3/1/2007

  31. M-

    Whoops, I missed a couple more curtailments:

    Industries Perron to curtail
    Industries Perron Inc., Trois-Rivieres, Quebec, will be closed the week of April 16, removing about 3 million board feet of fingerjoint studs from the market. Market conditions, and the installation of a new stacker for fingerjointed 16-footers, were cited as reasons for the downtime. – 4/12/2007

    Fraser Papers announces temporary shutdowns
    Fraser Papers Inc. has announced the temporary shutdowns of its sawmills in Juniper, New Brunswick, and Ashland, Maine, beginning April 2. The company expects the shutdown to be for two weeks in Juniper and four weeks in Ashland, depending on market conditions. Weak demand was cited for the shutdowns. The company’s sawmill in Masardis, Maine, will increase production by adding a third shift and employing most of the workers from the Ashland operation. – 4/3/2007

  32. Skeptic

    Snick: “However, the overall message was/is, “Don’t be a sucker and buy now, you idiot. Give it just a little more time.”

    That’s not how I saw it. More supply than last year and less competition means an easier time for buyers who can take the time to check out a few properties without the same level of pressure as previously.

    There was nothing about “Give it just a little more time”, it was suggesting now was a good time to buy. It talked about a more balanced market than last year.

  33. Johnnyrent

    Hi Rob

    You were right to be wowed with the production capacity and efficiency of some of our newer SPF (framing lumber) mills. They are without question the most efficient in the world.

    As to the Pine Beattle, unfortunately this is turning out to be an even bigger problem than first imagined. First, its migrating further south than was originally predicted, affecting much more forest lands than had been projected. Second, recent studies show that infected fibre has a shorter shelf life than uninfected fibre (it was originally thought that beyond “blue stain”, the structural integrity of the fibre was not compromised but now they find, it is).

    Short term, the more efficient mills can get all the cheap, infected fibre they can handle although as you point out, they are selling into what is fast becoming an oversold market. Long term, I’m afraid that the Pine Beattle infestation is a genuine debacle. The Interior and Northern forest sector will no doubt contract as a result, unless we can find some marketable products to engineer out of infected fibre. The Coast forest sector has already contracted some 50%, for for different reasons.

    All and all, a sobering situation. We will clearly need to diversify our economy well beyond what we’ve already done, in order to take up the slack.

  34. Skeptic

    Check out the animation near the bottom of this page: http://scf.rncan.gc.ca/subsite/mpb/historical-historique

  35. jim

    Snick:
    Although you are overstating the negativaty of the Olsen piece-it was significant because the term “balanced market” was used.
    Since balanced is a technical term meaning sub 60% sell/list, it was a solid piece of reporting. But yah, smart money would wait, at least until July.

  36. Moneyfromasia

    US news tonight. RE down -8% nationwide

    Sooner or later cheap money will end.

    Money is so devalued right now.

    Seams extreme to me.

  37. Domus

    Jim,

    my bet is that smart money is already out or on its way. 5 more months are going to be lethal……

  38. wordfromabove

    sale will be up in the 1st and 2nd week of May, mark it please.

  39. Domus

    I am not talking about next month….I am talking about the next 36 months. Wait and see…..

  40. Jim

    Domus:
    Prices will likely continue to rise for months yet. But you are correct-smart speculator money is out. Short termers- less than 12 months- have brass cojones.

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